February 20, 2025 • 13 mins
The first G20 summit on African soil has started in Johannesburg this weekend, with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio refusing to attend the foreign ministers meeting. With President Trump’s new administration picking fights with allies and bringing Russia back in from the diplomatic cold, is multilaterialism still alive and will the G20 presidency meet South Africa’s ambitious goals? Bloomberg senior reporter Antony Sguazzin joins Jennifer Zabasajja to outline what’s at stake, and what role other players like China and the EU have if the US steps back from Africa.
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:02):
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2 (00:09):
South Africa is hosting G twenty Foreign ministers in Johannesburg,
but ken it's call for solidarity, equality and sustainability stand
up against an increasingly divided world order.
Speaker 3 (00:22):
Geopolitical tensions and rising intolerance, conflicts and war, climate change, pandemics,
and energy and food insecurity do threaten an already fragile
global coexistence, With the.
Speaker 2 (00:40):
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio refusing it to attend
and the Trump administration using this time to bring Russia
out of the diplomatic cold, what can the first big
meeting of South Africa's G twenty presidency actually achieve well?
Speaker 4 (00:54):
Get ida in the old named under the three in
African folklore and communities, we gather under a three to
have difficult conversations that challenges us. I hope that this
hole will present a good platform for all the G
twenty participants engage robustly to find solutions to global challenges.
Speaker 2 (01:14):
On today's episode of The Next Africa podcast, we'll look
at what's at stake at this G twenty summit and
what chance, if any South Africa has to try and
achieve any of the goals of this year's presidency. I'm
Jennifer's Abasaga and this is the Next Africa Podcast, bringing
you one story each week from the continent driving the
(01:36):
future of global growth with the context only Bloomberg can provide.
Joining us this week in Johannesburg is Bloomberg Senior reporter
Anthony Squisine, who is going to be covering the G
twenty summit very closely. Anthony, thanks so much for joining
us and coming back on the podcast. Talk to us
about what South Africa went into this summit and taking
(01:59):
over the president's with the intention to do what was
Ramaposa's plan before we saw the unfolding of the relationship
between the US and South Africa.
Speaker 5 (02:10):
Well, I think that Romposa would have been very pleased
to South Africa got to host the G twenty summits
year because it gives him a chance to showcase the
concerns and aims of the so called global self. So
that means the reshaping of international financial institutions, which means
provision of more finance for development and especially for climate adaptation,
(02:33):
because there's been a longstanding gripe of countries like South
Africa that the IMF and World Bank are too cautious
in their lending. In addition to that, I think he
was hoping to bring up the concerns of the wider
African consonants, especially in terms of debt relief. Post the pandemic,
much of the continent has been in deep debt and
so a few countries have been in debt distress and
(02:53):
even default, and the G twenty or the Big Economies
approach to this has been seen as cumbersome and overly
bureaucratic and moving too slowly. So all of these would
have been on the table, and really also just to
showcase South Africa, but he's trying to kick start the economy,
and the world's eyes would have been on South Africa
(03:14):
this yet and they still will be. But there's going
to be some controversy.
Speaker 2 (03:16):
Now, yeah, and we've seen that really unfolding over the
past few days and weeks. Let's talk about the US
now refusing to at least take part in the first summit,
the first few summits. How big of a blow is
that for President Ramaposa.
Speaker 5 (03:33):
It's a huge blow. They're not refusing to take part
in the summers, but what they are doing is it's
a major snub. They are sending their charged affairs, which
is effectively a civil servant in South Africa, to attend
the Foreign Minister's summit this week, which means that nothing
much can really be accomplished as far as the US
is concerned. So it's a major concern because the G
twenty is a meeting of the world's biggest economies, and
(03:56):
the world's biggest economy is not taken part. How much
can you really achieve? I think that we're putting a
bro face on us and trying to get as much
done as possible, but it's going to be difficult, and
no doubt it is a bit of a blow to South.
Speaker 2 (04:10):
Africa, and at the same time we're seeing other partners
then step up. We heard that EU Foreign Affairs chief
saying that multilateralism is under threat, based on the sources
that you're speaking with. Is this affecting the mood going
into the summit?
Speaker 5 (04:27):
Yes, So I think it reflects what's going on in
the wider world if we look at what's happening with
the Trump administration. President Trump's comments in Europe, the defense
spending on how he plans to handle the Russia, Ukraine,
conflict and threats of tariffs, especially on his allies, including
the EU. What it has done, I think is it's
brought the EU and South Africa closer together. Now that
(04:50):
relationship is very important. The EU frequently trots out figures
that show that it's the biggest investor in South Africa,
goes heads ahead with China collect in terms of total trade.
But many of the factories and foreign companies that own
assets in South Africa are based in Europe and they
employ a lot of people. So there's been a rather
(05:11):
fractures relationship for the last few years. That's mainly been
spurred by South Africa's rather ambiguous approach toward the Russia
Ukraine conflicts, because it hasn't really condemned Russia's invasion. But
now we're seeing an EU South Africa summit, which has
been long delayed, scheduled for early next month. We've seen
the comments by Kaya Kallis, a high representative European Union,
(05:32):
a top foreign affairs official.
Speaker 1 (05:34):
You can count down European Union's full support to South
Africa's leadership and ambitious CHI twenty agenda. I'm also convinced
that both South Africa as well as European Union and
not only have an interest of working closely together, but
will equally benefit from each other.
Speaker 5 (05:56):
And there seems to be an attempt to patch up
different to stand together against the opposition that we're seeing
from the Trump administration towards both South Africa and the EU.
At the same time, South Africa is a member of
the BRICKS group of large Emerging market economies and when
Marco Rubio, Secretive of State said he would not be
(06:18):
coming to the South African summit this week, that China
was the first to express support for South Africa's goals.
And I think it will deepen the ties within BRICKS
between South Africa and China and perhaps all South Africa.
India and India and China our big trade partners as
well for South Africa, especially China, but it does give
them an opportunity to cement those ties and build on them,
(06:39):
strengthening the BRICKS grouping at the expense of the G twenty.
Speaker 2 (06:43):
Yeah, and we've heard from at least US President Trump
talking about the Bricks even in his first few days,
I believe, even before he took office. That will be
interesting to see how that develops. Anthony stick with US
when we come back, we're going to talk about potentially
what could still be achieved, and as you mentioned, this
is an opportunity for South Africa what role they could
(07:04):
play on the world stage as they host this G twenty.
We'll be right back. Welcome back today. On the podcast,
we're discussing the G twenty presidency being held by South
Africa amid a time of global turmoil. Bloomberg Senior importer
Anthony Squisine is still with us, so Anthony. Earlier we
(07:26):
talked about what South Africa was hoping to achieve before
the Trump administration had started targeting a bit. What is
definitively on the agenda though over the next few days.
Speaker 5 (07:37):
I think it's very early, it's the first summit of
the G twenty year, but I think what South Africa
will be and looking to do is to get its
aims in front of its partners within the G twenty.
A lot of those revolve around global financial institutions, and
I think given that South Africa and EU are probably
a lot closer aligned on their concerns of a climate
(07:58):
change than the US, especially under the current administration, there
may be something to achieve The European countries have already
contributed a lot towards South Africa's energy transition in terms
of soft loans and grants to help the country consition
away from coal, and I think there will be an
openness toward discussing putting pressure on global financial institutions, the
(08:19):
World Bank, the IMFIFC on providing more money to help
African and other emerging market countries or developing nations buffer
their infrastructure and economies against the impact of climate change,
which South Africa rightly argues that hasn't been caused by
developing countries given that they have very little industry of
(08:40):
their own and therefore produce not very much in terms
of emissions, So that'll be one thing. I think that
also they're also try and get their issue on the
agenda and generally pushing for discussions on giving the global South,
which is not just the big countries like India, China
and to a lesser extent of Africa, but all of
(09:02):
the global staff a greater voice in global institutions, ranging
from the UN to again the World Bank.
Speaker 2 (09:10):
And we've seen President Trump, at least initially in the
first few weeks, retreating from a lot of multilateral institutions.
The future of the US in the G twenty is
up for debate. Can the G twenty, though, make some
progress on a lot of these issues that you're talking
about without the US at.
Speaker 5 (09:29):
The table, I think they can. I think that they
will regard it as a shame that the US, the
world's biggest economy, is not with them, But given that
they're unserligned on climate issues and on trade and on globalism,
I think in some ways it might make the conversations
a bit more easy because they don't have the one
party that's dragging its feet. But at the end of
(09:52):
the day, there's only so much you can achieve when
a large chunk of the world economy is not participating
in your talks.
Speaker 2 (09:57):
And finally, Anthony, when we think of the time that
it is here, the time I guess it is that
South Africa is facing right now with the economy. We
saw the budget getting postponed. What's your expectation for the
role that Africa or South Africa can play in international
diplomacy given a lot of the domestic issues that the
(10:19):
country is facing.
Speaker 5 (10:21):
Well, I think that in some ways the domestic issues
are helpful for South Africa because the fact that it
has a coalition government. It's having to accept broad array
of views, as we saw yesterday with the budget being
postponed because the African National Congress is the governing partners,
the DA and some of the smaller parties did not
agree with a plan to hike value out of Texas.
(10:42):
It shows that it's functioning as a democracy, and I
mean it's very similar to a lot of the European
countries that will be dealing with. Germany has a coalition
and so do many other European nations, so I don't
think it's necessarily a negative. And generally, if you look
at the forecast and South African economy is on upward track,
nothing spectacular, but it is on the mend and the
right performs are very slowly being put in place, so
(11:04):
it's an upswing. I definitely think South Africa could have
done without the turbulence that Trump's comments about sixty land
reform policies, and that's international diplomacy. That's certainly not helpful,
and it's not helpful that Marco Rubio and other US
officials won't be attending the G twenty meetings. But nevertheless,
there is room for something to be achieved.
Speaker 2 (11:26):
And you can read all of our coverage of the
g twenty across Bloomberg platforms. Now here's some of the
other stories we've been following across the region. This week,
South African finance Minister Ino Godongwana proposed a shock consumption
tax increase to help rein in government debt, but the
(11:47):
move was rejected by other parties in the nation's coalition
government and derailed the unveiling of the budget. For the
first time ever in the country's history. Gonon Guana will
release a revival budget in three weeks of That increase
would have been the first since twenty eighteen and wasn't
anticipated by any economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Earlier this month,
(12:11):
and Rwanda backed rebels in the Eastern Democratic Republic of
Congo have advanced southward, reaching Burundi's border and bringing the
Central African region to the brink of war. According to
the United Nations, Rwanda has been impervious to widespread demands
for a ceasefire, and the m twenty three offensive has
raised concerns about the country's ultimate goal. Rwanda invaded Congo
(12:35):
twice in the nineties to overthrow its government, and you
can follow these stories across Bloomberg, including the Next African Newsletter.
We'll put a link to that in the show notes.
This program was produced by Adrian Bradley. Don't forget to
follow and review the show wherever you usually get your podcasts.
(12:57):
I'm Jennifer Zabasaja. Thank you for listening.
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2 (00:09):
South Africa is hosting G twenty Foreign ministers in Johannesburg,
but ken it's call for solidarity, equality and sustainability stand
up against an increasingly divided world order.
Speaker 3 (00:22):
Geopolitical tensions and rising intolerance, conflicts and war, climate change, pandemics,
and energy and food insecurity do threaten an already fragile
global coexistence, With the.
Speaker 2 (00:40):
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio refusing it to attend
and the Trump administration using this time to bring Russia
out of the diplomatic cold, what can the first big
meeting of South Africa's G twenty presidency actually achieve well?
Speaker 4 (00:54):
Get ida in the old named under the three in
African folklore and communities, we gather under a three to
have difficult conversations that challenges us. I hope that this
hole will present a good platform for all the G
twenty participants engage robustly to find solutions to global challenges.
Speaker 2 (01:14):
On today's episode of The Next Africa podcast, we'll look
at what's at stake at this G twenty summit and
what chance, if any South Africa has to try and
achieve any of the goals of this year's presidency. I'm
Jennifer's Abasaga and this is the Next Africa Podcast, bringing
you one story each week from the continent driving the
(01:36):
future of global growth with the context only Bloomberg can provide.
Joining us this week in Johannesburg is Bloomberg Senior reporter
Anthony Squisine, who is going to be covering the G
twenty summit very closely. Anthony, thanks so much for joining
us and coming back on the podcast. Talk to us
about what South Africa went into this summit and taking
(01:59):
over the president's with the intention to do what was
Ramaposa's plan before we saw the unfolding of the relationship
between the US and South Africa.
Speaker 5 (02:10):
Well, I think that Romposa would have been very pleased
to South Africa got to host the G twenty summits
year because it gives him a chance to showcase the
concerns and aims of the so called global self. So
that means the reshaping of international financial institutions, which means
provision of more finance for development and especially for climate adaptation,
(02:33):
because there's been a longstanding gripe of countries like South
Africa that the IMF and World Bank are too cautious
in their lending. In addition to that, I think he
was hoping to bring up the concerns of the wider
African consonants, especially in terms of debt relief. Post the pandemic,
much of the continent has been in deep debt and
so a few countries have been in debt distress and
(02:53):
even default, and the G twenty or the Big Economies
approach to this has been seen as cumbersome and overly
bureaucratic and moving too slowly. So all of these would
have been on the table, and really also just to
showcase South Africa, but he's trying to kick start the economy,
and the world's eyes would have been on South Africa
(03:14):
this yet and they still will be. But there's going
to be some controversy.
Speaker 2 (03:16):
Now, yeah, and we've seen that really unfolding over the
past few days and weeks. Let's talk about the US
now refusing to at least take part in the first summit,
the first few summits. How big of a blow is
that for President Ramaposa.
Speaker 5 (03:33):
It's a huge blow. They're not refusing to take part
in the summers, but what they are doing is it's
a major snub. They are sending their charged affairs, which
is effectively a civil servant in South Africa, to attend
the Foreign Minister's summit this week, which means that nothing
much can really be accomplished as far as the US
is concerned. So it's a major concern because the G
twenty is a meeting of the world's biggest economies, and
(03:56):
the world's biggest economy is not taken part. How much
can you really achieve? I think that we're putting a
bro face on us and trying to get as much
done as possible, but it's going to be difficult, and
no doubt it is a bit of a blow to South.
Speaker 2 (04:10):
Africa, and at the same time we're seeing other partners
then step up. We heard that EU Foreign Affairs chief
saying that multilateralism is under threat, based on the sources
that you're speaking with. Is this affecting the mood going
into the summit?
Speaker 5 (04:27):
Yes, So I think it reflects what's going on in
the wider world if we look at what's happening with
the Trump administration. President Trump's comments in Europe, the defense
spending on how he plans to handle the Russia, Ukraine,
conflict and threats of tariffs, especially on his allies, including
the EU. What it has done, I think is it's
brought the EU and South Africa closer together. Now that
(04:50):
relationship is very important. The EU frequently trots out figures
that show that it's the biggest investor in South Africa,
goes heads ahead with China collect in terms of total trade.
But many of the factories and foreign companies that own
assets in South Africa are based in Europe and they
employ a lot of people. So there's been a rather
(05:11):
fractures relationship for the last few years. That's mainly been
spurred by South Africa's rather ambiguous approach toward the Russia
Ukraine conflicts, because it hasn't really condemned Russia's invasion. But
now we're seeing an EU South Africa summit, which has
been long delayed, scheduled for early next month. We've seen
the comments by Kaya Kallis, a high representative European Union,
(05:32):
a top foreign affairs official.
Speaker 1 (05:34):
You can count down European Union's full support to South
Africa's leadership and ambitious CHI twenty agenda. I'm also convinced
that both South Africa as well as European Union and
not only have an interest of working closely together, but
will equally benefit from each other.
Speaker 5 (05:56):
And there seems to be an attempt to patch up
different to stand together against the opposition that we're seeing
from the Trump administration towards both South Africa and the EU.
At the same time, South Africa is a member of
the BRICKS group of large Emerging market economies and when
Marco Rubio, Secretive of State said he would not be
(06:18):
coming to the South African summit this week, that China
was the first to express support for South Africa's goals.
And I think it will deepen the ties within BRICKS
between South Africa and China and perhaps all South Africa.
India and India and China our big trade partners as
well for South Africa, especially China, but it does give
them an opportunity to cement those ties and build on them,
(06:39):
strengthening the BRICKS grouping at the expense of the G twenty.
Speaker 2 (06:43):
Yeah, and we've heard from at least US President Trump
talking about the Bricks even in his first few days,
I believe, even before he took office. That will be
interesting to see how that develops. Anthony stick with US
when we come back, we're going to talk about potentially
what could still be achieved, and as you mentioned, this
is an opportunity for South Africa what role they could
(07:04):
play on the world stage as they host this G twenty.
We'll be right back. Welcome back today. On the podcast,
we're discussing the G twenty presidency being held by South
Africa amid a time of global turmoil. Bloomberg Senior importer
Anthony Squisine is still with us, so Anthony. Earlier we
(07:26):
talked about what South Africa was hoping to achieve before
the Trump administration had started targeting a bit. What is
definitively on the agenda though over the next few days.
Speaker 5 (07:37):
I think it's very early, it's the first summit of
the G twenty year, but I think what South Africa
will be and looking to do is to get its
aims in front of its partners within the G twenty.
A lot of those revolve around global financial institutions, and
I think given that South Africa and EU are probably
a lot closer aligned on their concerns of a climate
(07:58):
change than the US, especially under the current administration, there
may be something to achieve The European countries have already
contributed a lot towards South Africa's energy transition in terms
of soft loans and grants to help the country consition
away from coal, and I think there will be an
openness toward discussing putting pressure on global financial institutions, the
(08:19):
World Bank, the IMFIFC on providing more money to help
African and other emerging market countries or developing nations buffer
their infrastructure and economies against the impact of climate change,
which South Africa rightly argues that hasn't been caused by
developing countries given that they have very little industry of
(08:40):
their own and therefore produce not very much in terms
of emissions, So that'll be one thing. I think that
also they're also try and get their issue on the
agenda and generally pushing for discussions on giving the global South,
which is not just the big countries like India, China
and to a lesser extent of Africa, but all of
(09:02):
the global staff a greater voice in global institutions, ranging
from the UN to again the World Bank.
Speaker 2 (09:10):
And we've seen President Trump, at least initially in the
first few weeks, retreating from a lot of multilateral institutions.
The future of the US in the G twenty is
up for debate. Can the G twenty, though, make some
progress on a lot of these issues that you're talking
about without the US at.
Speaker 5 (09:29):
The table, I think they can. I think that they
will regard it as a shame that the US, the
world's biggest economy, is not with them, But given that
they're unserligned on climate issues and on trade and on globalism,
I think in some ways it might make the conversations
a bit more easy because they don't have the one
party that's dragging its feet. But at the end of
(09:52):
the day, there's only so much you can achieve when
a large chunk of the world economy is not participating
in your talks.
Speaker 2 (09:57):
And finally, Anthony, when we think of the time that
it is here, the time I guess it is that
South Africa is facing right now with the economy. We
saw the budget getting postponed. What's your expectation for the
role that Africa or South Africa can play in international
diplomacy given a lot of the domestic issues that the
(10:19):
country is facing.
Speaker 5 (10:21):
Well, I think that in some ways the domestic issues
are helpful for South Africa because the fact that it
has a coalition government. It's having to accept broad array
of views, as we saw yesterday with the budget being
postponed because the African National Congress is the governing partners,
the DA and some of the smaller parties did not
agree with a plan to hike value out of Texas.
(10:42):
It shows that it's functioning as a democracy, and I
mean it's very similar to a lot of the European
countries that will be dealing with. Germany has a coalition
and so do many other European nations, so I don't
think it's necessarily a negative. And generally, if you look
at the forecast and South African economy is on upward track,
nothing spectacular, but it is on the mend and the
right performs are very slowly being put in place, so
(11:04):
it's an upswing. I definitely think South Africa could have
done without the turbulence that Trump's comments about sixty land
reform policies, and that's international diplomacy. That's certainly not helpful,
and it's not helpful that Marco Rubio and other US
officials won't be attending the G twenty meetings. But nevertheless,
there is room for something to be achieved.
Speaker 2 (11:26):
And you can read all of our coverage of the
g twenty across Bloomberg platforms. Now here's some of the
other stories we've been following across the region. This week,
South African finance Minister Ino Godongwana proposed a shock consumption
tax increase to help rein in government debt, but the
(11:47):
move was rejected by other parties in the nation's coalition
government and derailed the unveiling of the budget. For the
first time ever in the country's history. Gonon Guana will
release a revival budget in three weeks of That increase
would have been the first since twenty eighteen and wasn't
anticipated by any economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Earlier this month,
(12:11):
and Rwanda backed rebels in the Eastern Democratic Republic of
Congo have advanced southward, reaching Burundi's border and bringing the
Central African region to the brink of war. According to
the United Nations, Rwanda has been impervious to widespread demands
for a ceasefire, and the m twenty three offensive has
raised concerns about the country's ultimate goal. Rwanda invaded Congo
(12:35):
twice in the nineties to overthrow its government, and you
can follow these stories across Bloomberg, including the Next African Newsletter.
We'll put a link to that in the show notes.
This program was produced by Adrian Bradley. Don't forget to
follow and review the show wherever you usually get your podcasts.
(12:57):
I'm Jennifer Zabasaja. Thank you for listening.
Host
Jennifer Zabasajja
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