January 30, 2025 • 17 mins
A Rwanda-backed rebel group effectively captured the vital eastern DRC city of Goma, after a lightning offensive this week that reportedly included support from Rwandan troops.
On this week's episode, Bloomberg reporters Simon Marks and Michael Kavanagh, who’s covered the region for 20 years , join Jennifer Zabasajja to explain who the key players in the conflict are, what chance there is for a ceasefire and the risk this could spread into a wider regional conflict.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:02):
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2 (00:09):
Rwandan backed rebel fighters are battling the Congolese army for
control over the key city of Goma. African leaders have
called for negotiations between Rwanda and the DRC after reports
of thousands of Rwandan troops entering the city alongside M
(00:32):
twenty three rebel fighters.
Speaker 3 (00:35):
We do not see.
Speaker 4 (00:38):
From where I said, a possibility of a military solution
to the challenges that faced eastern DRC. It was, it is,
and I'm sure it will continue to be the case
that engagement, dialog, consultations is the only viable way out
(01:03):
of the situation in DRC.
Speaker 2 (01:05):
The Rwandan president again denied this was a Rwandan offensive.
Speaker 5 (01:10):
Twenty three are not Rwandan's please.
Speaker 2 (01:14):
On today's episode of The Next Africa Podcast, we'll ask
what's behind this latest round of fighting in this three
decade long conflict and what the repercussions could be if
a ceasefire isn't forthcoming. I'm Jennifer's Aposaga and this is
the Next Africa Podcast, bringing you one story each week
(01:34):
from the continent driving the future of global growth with
the context only Bloomberg can provide. Joining us this week
are Bloomberg reporter Simon Marx and also Michael Kavanaugh, who
have both reported extensively throughout the region. Guys, thanks so
much for being here. There's so much to discuss. This
is obviously a fast moving situation. But Simon, maybe you
(01:56):
can start us off by giving us a bit of
context about who as of the people are that are
involved in this fighting that we should be paying close
attention to.
Speaker 3 (02:06):
So this is a long running conflict. It's been going
on for many years in eastern Congo, and it's extensively
between two groups. It's the CONGLESE Army and also the
M twenty three rebel group, which is largely drawn from
Congolese communities of Rwandan origin. It's a very well organized
rebel group that you and experts and many observers of
(02:30):
what's happening in eastern DRC say are backed heavily by
the Rwandan state. Why Rwanda, Well, that's because Rwando are
keen to see the Congles of Tutsi origin protected and
their rights protected. They've had a long standing belief that
Tutsis in this region have been discriminated against and their
(02:51):
rights have not been upheld. This is really the origin
of this year's long conflict that now exploded into the
streets of Goma. Well, M twenty three have come in
and seized large portions of the city, and.
Speaker 2 (03:04):
From my understanding, much of M twenty three is made
up of those with Tutsi origin.
Speaker 5 (03:10):
Michael, is that fair to say?
Speaker 6 (03:12):
It's fair to say, you know, the Tutsis and Hutusa
found in a lot of the countries around the region,
specifically in Rwanda, of course, but there are also in
Uganda and Burundi, in particular in Urundi and then in
eastern Congo as well. And throughout history there have been
movements of this population throughout the region for various reasons,
colonial reasons, economic reasons, and reasons of violence, because there
(03:33):
has been tension over the years between the two communities
that the Hutus and the Tutsis, and you know, the
most famous one of course for us in our lifetimes
or many of our lifetimes. So there are in nineteen
ninety four Rwandan genocide which killed probably you know, between
eight hundred thousand and a million, mostly Tutsis but also
moderate Hutus during that time, and that's really the impetus
(03:54):
for the current conflict. All these years later because after
the genocide, Rwandan mainly Twozi led rebel movement pushed the
Hutu movement out that had the government that had killed
all the Chutsis and Rwanda pushed them into Congo, and
then a war broke out in Congo. The Congolese government
was oversthrown. But we've seen sort of the embers of
(04:16):
this war still burning and the embers of the genocide
still burning in eastern Congo and throughout the country ever since.
Speaker 2 (04:22):
And you mentioned, of course this has been going on
for several decades. Maybe you can contextualize what the current
conflict though, is over. Is it still dating back to
a lot of these tribal issues that we saw, and
why is it concentrated in Goma Michael.
Speaker 6 (04:38):
It's still related in part to what happened all the
way back then. These communities still exist and there is
a rebel group known as the FDLR, the Democratic Forces
for the Liberation of Rwanda, whose origins are found in
the perpetrators of the genocide. Though there are probably almost
no people who've perpetrated genocides still among this group, they
(04:58):
still the n per want and government thinks that they
promote this genocidal ideology, and they believe they're.
Speaker 1 (05:04):
An existential threat to the country.
Speaker 6 (05:06):
They believe that genocidal ideology is a threat to Rwanda
entirely and they need to completely stamp it out. At
the same time, Eastern Congo is a place where rebel
groups thrive.
Speaker 1 (05:17):
They're probably more than one hundred that are there. It's
a chaotic place.
Speaker 6 (05:21):
There are rebels that oppose the governments of Uganda, of Rwanda,
of Burundi. It's a place where there are many small
rebel groups that protect local communities. There are ethnic issues,
there are land issues, and of course there are economic
issues as well, because Eastern Congo is extremely rich in
natural resources. The land is fertile, the land is full
(05:41):
of minerals. It's the most important place in the world
for a mineral and are called coltan, which is in
just about all of your mobile phones and all of
your laptops. And there's tin ore, there's gold, and especially
in the last few years with the rise in the
price of gold and some of the other minerals located there,
we're seeing a real update take in conflict linked to
(06:03):
the exploitation of minerals, which are then smuggled through neighboring countries,
enriching armed groups, enriching certain communities, enriching Congo's neighbors, but
not enriching the Congolese. And so this has become a
massive flashpoint between local communities and between the regional nations
there who are all benefiting in some way from Eastern
(06:23):
Congo's resources. But it's resulting in pretty serious conflict and
that ends up in Goma. Goma is really the focal
point because it's the main trading hub. It's right on
the border with Rwanda, near lakes, It's near lots of
different ways where you can sort of transport various natural
resources to both sides, and so Goma has become the
focal point. It's also where the UN is based and
(06:44):
where most NGOs are based.
Speaker 2 (06:46):
And we've heard President Kagame of Rwanda deny that Rwanda
has any involvement.
Speaker 5 (06:51):
Is he still standing by that right now? Simon?
Speaker 2 (06:54):
I mean, what are we hearing from Rwanda especially about
this current conflict because it is getting international attention.
Speaker 3 (06:59):
Yeah, President off Rwanda has been quite coy about this
issue for a long time. For many years, he outright
denied any involvement or links to the m twenty three
rebel group. But in recent years, UN experts have done
a lot of probing on this issue and have found
lots of material evidence of Rwandan troops based inside Congo
(07:22):
and also weapons acquired by the Rwandan army also appearing
on the battlefield. So it's become very hard for Porlka
Garmi to continue with this outright denial, and I think
more recently it's fair to say he's become let's say,
a bit more philosophical about Rwanda's position on this. He
often talks about the importance of protecting Congolese communities of
(07:45):
Tutsi origin in the country. He often talks about the
need to eradicate the FDLR group, which Michael just mentioned.
So it's clear Rwanda has a very strong ideological stance
in this conflict, but there are many who think that
it goes way beyond that. It's also a quest for
ownership of the land of the economic riches in this
(08:09):
area that Rwanda benefits from.
Speaker 2 (08:11):
Stick with us, Simon and Michael when we come back,
we're going to talk a little bit more about the
international reaction and what impact it could have on the
wider region.
Speaker 5 (08:19):
As this continues we'll be right back. Welcome back.
Speaker 2 (08:26):
Today, we're talking about the fighting in Goma between Rwandan
backed rebels and the Congolese forces that has left many
people dead.
Speaker 5 (08:33):
And millions more at displaced.
Speaker 2 (08:34):
We have Michael Kavanaugh and Simon Marx, our reporters, with us.
What's been the reaction to this latest round of fighting. Michael, you,
from my understanding, used to live in the DRC.
Speaker 5 (08:45):
You've spent a lot of time there.
Speaker 2 (08:47):
How does this reaction compare to what you guys have
seen in the past.
Speaker 6 (08:51):
The last time that the M twenty three took Goma
was in twenty twelve. There was an enormous international reaction,
an enormous amount of pressure on Rwanda on the twenty three. Eventually,
an Adventure Brigade was formed by the United Nations which
went and fought the M twenty three and destroyed them,
at least temporarily.
Speaker 1 (09:10):
This time we're not seeing yet the same amount of pressure.
Speaker 6 (09:12):
We're not seeing the same level of sanctions, the same
level of attention.
Speaker 1 (09:16):
And there's no doubt that the moment when this invasion.
Speaker 6 (09:19):
Of Goma is happening is a particularly interesting moment because
there's a change of administration in the United States. The
US has been the most outspoken about Rwanda's influence on
the M twenty three and its participation in this conflict.
And there's also a change of course at the African
Union as well in terms of the leadership. So you know,
this is a moment where I think there's a lot
(09:41):
of flux in the international community and people aren't quite
sure what to do to get Rwanda to change its
policy towards the M twenty three, nor to figure out
how to bolster the Congolese army in a way that
would allow them to fight back from the M twenty
three advance. So it's a very confused, continuous situation, and
(10:02):
countries are starting to talk about sanctions, starting to talk
about other ways, other levers of pressuring Rwanda. But Rwanda
has already gone through this before, and the M twenty
three have gone through this before, and so they certainly
if they're willing to take Goma again, they're ready to
face those similar kind of consequences. And so I think
that's the reason why people are so concerned that actually
(10:22):
the endgame might be a kind of broader war and
more extensive occupation of eastern Congo. Now that's a pretty
extreme thing to say. We don't know that that's what's
going to happen, but this is what various actors and
experts are warning about.
Speaker 2 (10:37):
Are there other players or leaders on the continent who
could make a difference though, because we've heard South African
President Ramaposa has called President Kagame, would that move the
needle potentially?
Speaker 3 (10:48):
So I think in terms of the continent's ability to
ride in this, I mean we've seen the East Africa
community today as we speak, holding talks in Nairobi, and
the African Union has a summit next month in Addis
where they have scheduled a meeting, high level meeting about
this crisis. And Angola has had a very sort of
(11:12):
key role in in mediating this crisis with its president
Jo Lorenzo, and he will be taking over the presidency
of the African Union. So I think these are the
countries that you have to watch for and you can
probably see a scenario. I know a lot of European
countries are already looking at trying to back a sort
of AU led peace initiative led by the Angolans on this.
(11:37):
Whether it gains any steam, it's hard to say because
the longer a ceaspire isn't agreed to, the more the
potential for this thing, the spiral.
Speaker 2 (11:45):
Could you and peacekeepers potentially make a difference. They've been
there throughout these years.
Speaker 3 (11:51):
The Manusco peacekeeping force in Eastern Congo has been pretty useless,
to be honest, in containing this war. It's highly imp popular.
It's not seen as a unit that engages when violence
actually comes about. It struggled to protect communities and because
(12:11):
of that, actually they've had a steady process of drawing
down their troops from the region, not increasing them. In
recent days we've seen the Blue Helmets pull back and
not really get too involved in this fight, albeit some
of them have lost.
Speaker 1 (12:26):
Their lives Michael.
Speaker 6 (12:27):
And the unit is there, of course to back up
the Congolese army, and that's become more and more true
over the years that if the Congolese army is not fighting,
then the UN is not going to go out of
their way to attack the rebel groups or push them back.
But they do provide still really important logistics, you know,
healthcare and medicine. They provide important places, you know, when
(12:51):
these conflicts kick off, like we're seeing right now, where
does everyone go the UN bases. The UN bases are
full right now, they're full. They're taking more fired at,
taking bullets, but they're surrendered troops, surrendered militia, you know, civilians,
human rights defenders, Congolese government officials.
Speaker 1 (13:09):
The UN has.
Speaker 6 (13:10):
All been working to evacuate them, treat them.
Speaker 1 (13:13):
So they still play a very essential.
Speaker 6 (13:15):
And important role in the region if they're just not
like a hot army.
Speaker 3 (13:20):
The risk for Polka Gami in backing the M twenty
three arguably is a lot less today than what it
was ten twelve years ago, the last time the M
twenty three stormed into Goma. And that's because Rwanda has
a much bigger role to play on the continent but
also internationally with its relationships with governments across the globe.
(13:41):
And it does this by providing large numbers of peacekeepers
to various contingencies of the UN across Africa. It has
its soldiers in the Central African Republic where it's supporting
the government on a bilateral basis, and it's helping a
lot in Mozambique to protect French LNG assets that TOTAL
(14:02):
are interested in. And so in general, I think a
lot of people view Rwando's a bit of a post
genocidal success story. But when you go to the country,
that's what people see first and foremost, and this is
one could go with quite a lot of accolades.
Speaker 2 (14:16):
So then considering all of this, you guys, before we
wrap up, what will determine what happens next? I mean, Michael,
you were laying out how this is a changing world order,
right we have a new US administration, different leaders have
come into power on the continent.
Speaker 5 (14:33):
What's determining the outlook.
Speaker 1 (14:35):
The Congolese believe that the international community needs to intervene.
Speaker 6 (14:39):
They've asked for two emergency sessions of the Security Council
to ask for sanctions, to ask for sanctions against Rwandan officials,
political and military. They've asked for embargoes on the sale
of Rwandan minerals and the purchase of weapons. But at
the moment this has still falling on deaf ears. So
if you're from the Congolese point of view, they really
(14:59):
need international pressure on Rwanda. It's just not clear that
that pressure is being mobilized right now. Without that kind
of pressure, Rwanda is seems to be happy to carry
on and again because they feel like they have security risks.
Existential security risks. They're protecting their borders, they're protecting their country.
(15:19):
They have seen a genocide, they have seen the effects
of extreme violence as it spreads, and they're sick of
the chaos on the border in eastern Congo, and so
you know, they feel they're justified in what they're doing
right now because of that.
Speaker 3 (15:32):
The big question is can you get Felix Jiessicadi and
Polka Gum in a room together, And it's been a
very long time since that's happened. There are attempts to
and I think Ruto has attempted to do that even
today in Nairobi, but it's not happened. So the longer
this goes on, the higher the risk of what people call,
you know, a regional conflict could occur. So you know,
(15:53):
the head of M twenty three political wing, Colne n Anga,
he's out there saying that he wants to push on
even beyond so he's being very vocally bullish. This is
one to watch in terms of whether this escalates way
beyond the city of Goma.
Speaker 2 (16:08):
And you can read all of our coverage across Bloomberg platforms.
Now here's some other stories we've been following across the region.
This week, but Tswana's President Dumaboko, who swept to power
in October elections, said his government has reached a diamond
extraction and sales agreement with tbiers that will bring certainty
(16:29):
to the gem dependent economy. The Southern African nation is
the world's biggest producer of rough diamonds by value and
the industry generates the bulk of its income. And former
South African President Jacob Zuma's daughter will face charges related
to anti government riots in the country four years ago
in which three hundred and fifty four people died. And
(16:52):
you can follow these stories across Bloomberg, including the Next
African Newsletter. Will put a link to that in the
show notes. This program was produced by Adrian Bradley. Don't
forget to follow and review this show wherever you usually
get your podcasts. I'm Jennifer Zabasoga. Thanks as always for listening.
(17:13):
We'll see you next time.
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2 (00:09):
Rwandan backed rebel fighters are battling the Congolese army for
control over the key city of Goma. African leaders have
called for negotiations between Rwanda and the DRC after reports
of thousands of Rwandan troops entering the city alongside M
(00:32):
twenty three rebel fighters.
Speaker 3 (00:35):
We do not see.
Speaker 4 (00:38):
From where I said, a possibility of a military solution
to the challenges that faced eastern DRC. It was, it is,
and I'm sure it will continue to be the case
that engagement, dialog, consultations is the only viable way out
(01:03):
of the situation in DRC.
Speaker 2 (01:05):
The Rwandan president again denied this was a Rwandan offensive.
Speaker 5 (01:10):
Twenty three are not Rwandan's please.
Speaker 2 (01:14):
On today's episode of The Next Africa Podcast, we'll ask
what's behind this latest round of fighting in this three
decade long conflict and what the repercussions could be if
a ceasefire isn't forthcoming. I'm Jennifer's Aposaga and this is
the Next Africa Podcast, bringing you one story each week
(01:34):
from the continent driving the future of global growth with
the context only Bloomberg can provide. Joining us this week
are Bloomberg reporter Simon Marx and also Michael Kavanaugh, who
have both reported extensively throughout the region. Guys, thanks so
much for being here. There's so much to discuss. This
is obviously a fast moving situation. But Simon, maybe you
(01:56):
can start us off by giving us a bit of
context about who as of the people are that are
involved in this fighting that we should be paying close
attention to.
Speaker 3 (02:06):
So this is a long running conflict. It's been going
on for many years in eastern Congo, and it's extensively
between two groups. It's the CONGLESE Army and also the
M twenty three rebel group, which is largely drawn from
Congolese communities of Rwandan origin. It's a very well organized
rebel group that you and experts and many observers of
(02:30):
what's happening in eastern DRC say are backed heavily by
the Rwandan state. Why Rwanda, Well, that's because Rwando are
keen to see the Congles of Tutsi origin protected and
their rights protected. They've had a long standing belief that
Tutsis in this region have been discriminated against and their
(02:51):
rights have not been upheld. This is really the origin
of this year's long conflict that now exploded into the
streets of Goma. Well, M twenty three have come in
and seized large portions of the city, and.
Speaker 2 (03:04):
From my understanding, much of M twenty three is made
up of those with Tutsi origin.
Speaker 5 (03:10):
Michael, is that fair to say?
Speaker 6 (03:12):
It's fair to say, you know, the Tutsis and Hutusa
found in a lot of the countries around the region,
specifically in Rwanda, of course, but there are also in
Uganda and Burundi, in particular in Urundi and then in
eastern Congo as well. And throughout history there have been
movements of this population throughout the region for various reasons,
colonial reasons, economic reasons, and reasons of violence, because there
(03:33):
has been tension over the years between the two communities
that the Hutus and the Tutsis, and you know, the
most famous one of course for us in our lifetimes
or many of our lifetimes. So there are in nineteen
ninety four Rwandan genocide which killed probably you know, between
eight hundred thousand and a million, mostly Tutsis but also
moderate Hutus during that time, and that's really the impetus
(03:54):
for the current conflict. All these years later because after
the genocide, Rwandan mainly Twozi led rebel movement pushed the
Hutu movement out that had the government that had killed
all the Chutsis and Rwanda pushed them into Congo, and
then a war broke out in Congo. The Congolese government
was oversthrown. But we've seen sort of the embers of
(04:16):
this war still burning and the embers of the genocide
still burning in eastern Congo and throughout the country ever since.
Speaker 2 (04:22):
And you mentioned, of course this has been going on
for several decades. Maybe you can contextualize what the current
conflict though, is over. Is it still dating back to
a lot of these tribal issues that we saw, and
why is it concentrated in Goma Michael.
Speaker 6 (04:38):
It's still related in part to what happened all the
way back then. These communities still exist and there is
a rebel group known as the FDLR, the Democratic Forces
for the Liberation of Rwanda, whose origins are found in
the perpetrators of the genocide. Though there are probably almost
no people who've perpetrated genocides still among this group, they
(04:58):
still the n per want and government thinks that they
promote this genocidal ideology, and they believe they're.
Speaker 1 (05:04):
An existential threat to the country.
Speaker 6 (05:06):
They believe that genocidal ideology is a threat to Rwanda
entirely and they need to completely stamp it out. At
the same time, Eastern Congo is a place where rebel
groups thrive.
Speaker 1 (05:17):
They're probably more than one hundred that are there. It's
a chaotic place.
Speaker 6 (05:21):
There are rebels that oppose the governments of Uganda, of Rwanda,
of Burundi. It's a place where there are many small
rebel groups that protect local communities. There are ethnic issues,
there are land issues, and of course there are economic
issues as well, because Eastern Congo is extremely rich in
natural resources. The land is fertile, the land is full
(05:41):
of minerals. It's the most important place in the world
for a mineral and are called coltan, which is in
just about all of your mobile phones and all of
your laptops. And there's tin ore, there's gold, and especially
in the last few years with the rise in the
price of gold and some of the other minerals located there,
we're seeing a real update take in conflict linked to
(06:03):
the exploitation of minerals, which are then smuggled through neighboring countries,
enriching armed groups, enriching certain communities, enriching Congo's neighbors, but
not enriching the Congolese. And so this has become a
massive flashpoint between local communities and between the regional nations
there who are all benefiting in some way from Eastern
(06:23):
Congo's resources. But it's resulting in pretty serious conflict and
that ends up in Goma. Goma is really the focal
point because it's the main trading hub. It's right on
the border with Rwanda, near lakes, It's near lots of
different ways where you can sort of transport various natural
resources to both sides, and so Goma has become the
focal point. It's also where the UN is based and
(06:44):
where most NGOs are based.
Speaker 2 (06:46):
And we've heard President Kagame of Rwanda deny that Rwanda
has any involvement.
Speaker 5 (06:51):
Is he still standing by that right now? Simon?
Speaker 2 (06:54):
I mean, what are we hearing from Rwanda especially about
this current conflict because it is getting international attention.
Speaker 3 (06:59):
Yeah, President off Rwanda has been quite coy about this
issue for a long time. For many years, he outright
denied any involvement or links to the m twenty three
rebel group. But in recent years, UN experts have done
a lot of probing on this issue and have found
lots of material evidence of Rwandan troops based inside Congo
(07:22):
and also weapons acquired by the Rwandan army also appearing
on the battlefield. So it's become very hard for Porlka
Garmi to continue with this outright denial, and I think
more recently it's fair to say he's become let's say,
a bit more philosophical about Rwanda's position on this. He
often talks about the importance of protecting Congolese communities of
(07:45):
Tutsi origin in the country. He often talks about the
need to eradicate the FDLR group, which Michael just mentioned.
So it's clear Rwanda has a very strong ideological stance
in this conflict, but there are many who think that
it goes way beyond that. It's also a quest for
ownership of the land of the economic riches in this
(08:09):
area that Rwanda benefits from.
Speaker 2 (08:11):
Stick with us, Simon and Michael when we come back,
we're going to talk a little bit more about the
international reaction and what impact it could have on the
wider region.
Speaker 5 (08:19):
As this continues we'll be right back. Welcome back.
Speaker 2 (08:26):
Today, we're talking about the fighting in Goma between Rwandan
backed rebels and the Congolese forces that has left many
people dead.
Speaker 5 (08:33):
And millions more at displaced.
Speaker 2 (08:34):
We have Michael Kavanaugh and Simon Marx, our reporters, with us.
What's been the reaction to this latest round of fighting. Michael, you,
from my understanding, used to live in the DRC.
Speaker 5 (08:45):
You've spent a lot of time there.
Speaker 2 (08:47):
How does this reaction compare to what you guys have
seen in the past.
Speaker 6 (08:51):
The last time that the M twenty three took Goma
was in twenty twelve. There was an enormous international reaction,
an enormous amount of pressure on Rwanda on the twenty three. Eventually,
an Adventure Brigade was formed by the United Nations which
went and fought the M twenty three and destroyed them,
at least temporarily.
Speaker 1 (09:10):
This time we're not seeing yet the same amount of pressure.
Speaker 6 (09:12):
We're not seeing the same level of sanctions, the same
level of attention.
Speaker 1 (09:16):
And there's no doubt that the moment when this invasion.
Speaker 6 (09:19):
Of Goma is happening is a particularly interesting moment because
there's a change of administration in the United States. The
US has been the most outspoken about Rwanda's influence on
the M twenty three and its participation in this conflict.
And there's also a change of course at the African
Union as well in terms of the leadership. So you know,
this is a moment where I think there's a lot
(09:41):
of flux in the international community and people aren't quite
sure what to do to get Rwanda to change its
policy towards the M twenty three, nor to figure out
how to bolster the Congolese army in a way that
would allow them to fight back from the M twenty
three advance. So it's a very confused, continuous situation, and
(10:02):
countries are starting to talk about sanctions, starting to talk
about other ways, other levers of pressuring Rwanda. But Rwanda
has already gone through this before, and the M twenty
three have gone through this before, and so they certainly
if they're willing to take Goma again, they're ready to
face those similar kind of consequences. And so I think
that's the reason why people are so concerned that actually
(10:22):
the endgame might be a kind of broader war and
more extensive occupation of eastern Congo. Now that's a pretty
extreme thing to say. We don't know that that's what's
going to happen, but this is what various actors and
experts are warning about.
Speaker 2 (10:37):
Are there other players or leaders on the continent who
could make a difference though, because we've heard South African
President Ramaposa has called President Kagame, would that move the
needle potentially?
Speaker 3 (10:48):
So I think in terms of the continent's ability to
ride in this, I mean we've seen the East Africa
community today as we speak, holding talks in Nairobi, and
the African Union has a summit next month in Addis
where they have scheduled a meeting, high level meeting about
this crisis. And Angola has had a very sort of
(11:12):
key role in in mediating this crisis with its president
Jo Lorenzo, and he will be taking over the presidency
of the African Union. So I think these are the
countries that you have to watch for and you can
probably see a scenario. I know a lot of European
countries are already looking at trying to back a sort
of AU led peace initiative led by the Angolans on this.
(11:37):
Whether it gains any steam, it's hard to say because
the longer a ceaspire isn't agreed to, the more the
potential for this thing, the spiral.
Speaker 2 (11:45):
Could you and peacekeepers potentially make a difference. They've been
there throughout these years.
Speaker 3 (11:51):
The Manusco peacekeeping force in Eastern Congo has been pretty useless,
to be honest, in containing this war. It's highly imp popular.
It's not seen as a unit that engages when violence
actually comes about. It struggled to protect communities and because
(12:11):
of that, actually they've had a steady process of drawing
down their troops from the region, not increasing them. In
recent days we've seen the Blue Helmets pull back and
not really get too involved in this fight, albeit some
of them have lost.
Speaker 1 (12:26):
Their lives Michael.
Speaker 6 (12:27):
And the unit is there, of course to back up
the Congolese army, and that's become more and more true
over the years that if the Congolese army is not fighting,
then the UN is not going to go out of
their way to attack the rebel groups or push them back.
But they do provide still really important logistics, you know,
healthcare and medicine. They provide important places, you know, when
(12:51):
these conflicts kick off, like we're seeing right now, where
does everyone go the UN bases. The UN bases are
full right now, they're full. They're taking more fired at,
taking bullets, but they're surrendered troops, surrendered militia, you know, civilians,
human rights defenders, Congolese government officials.
Speaker 1 (13:09):
The UN has.
Speaker 6 (13:10):
All been working to evacuate them, treat them.
Speaker 1 (13:13):
So they still play a very essential.
Speaker 6 (13:15):
And important role in the region if they're just not
like a hot army.
Speaker 3 (13:20):
The risk for Polka Gami in backing the M twenty
three arguably is a lot less today than what it
was ten twelve years ago, the last time the M
twenty three stormed into Goma. And that's because Rwanda has
a much bigger role to play on the continent but
also internationally with its relationships with governments across the globe.
(13:41):
And it does this by providing large numbers of peacekeepers
to various contingencies of the UN across Africa. It has
its soldiers in the Central African Republic where it's supporting
the government on a bilateral basis, and it's helping a
lot in Mozambique to protect French LNG assets that TOTAL
(14:02):
are interested in. And so in general, I think a
lot of people view Rwando's a bit of a post
genocidal success story. But when you go to the country,
that's what people see first and foremost, and this is
one could go with quite a lot of accolades.
Speaker 2 (14:16):
So then considering all of this, you guys, before we
wrap up, what will determine what happens next? I mean, Michael,
you were laying out how this is a changing world order,
right we have a new US administration, different leaders have
come into power on the continent.
Speaker 5 (14:33):
What's determining the outlook.
Speaker 1 (14:35):
The Congolese believe that the international community needs to intervene.
Speaker 6 (14:39):
They've asked for two emergency sessions of the Security Council
to ask for sanctions, to ask for sanctions against Rwandan officials,
political and military. They've asked for embargoes on the sale
of Rwandan minerals and the purchase of weapons. But at
the moment this has still falling on deaf ears. So
if you're from the Congolese point of view, they really
(14:59):
need international pressure on Rwanda. It's just not clear that
that pressure is being mobilized right now. Without that kind
of pressure, Rwanda is seems to be happy to carry
on and again because they feel like they have security risks.
Existential security risks. They're protecting their borders, they're protecting their country.
(15:19):
They have seen a genocide, they have seen the effects
of extreme violence as it spreads, and they're sick of
the chaos on the border in eastern Congo, and so
you know, they feel they're justified in what they're doing
right now because of that.
Speaker 3 (15:32):
The big question is can you get Felix Jiessicadi and
Polka Gum in a room together, And it's been a
very long time since that's happened. There are attempts to
and I think Ruto has attempted to do that even
today in Nairobi, but it's not happened. So the longer
this goes on, the higher the risk of what people call,
you know, a regional conflict could occur. So you know,
(15:53):
the head of M twenty three political wing, Colne n Anga,
he's out there saying that he wants to push on
even beyond so he's being very vocally bullish. This is
one to watch in terms of whether this escalates way
beyond the city of Goma.
Speaker 2 (16:08):
And you can read all of our coverage across Bloomberg platforms.
Now here's some other stories we've been following across the region.
This week, but Tswana's President Dumaboko, who swept to power
in October elections, said his government has reached a diamond
extraction and sales agreement with tbiers that will bring certainty
(16:29):
to the gem dependent economy. The Southern African nation is
the world's biggest producer of rough diamonds by value and
the industry generates the bulk of its income. And former
South African President Jacob Zuma's daughter will face charges related
to anti government riots in the country four years ago
in which three hundred and fifty four people died. And
(16:52):
you can follow these stories across Bloomberg, including the Next
African Newsletter. Will put a link to that in the
show notes. This program was produced by Adrian Bradley. Don't
forget to follow and review this show wherever you usually
get your podcasts. I'm Jennifer Zabasoga. Thanks as always for listening.
(17:13):
We'll see you next time.
Host
Jennifer Zabasajja
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