June 27, 2025 • 26 mins
Iran is a huge country with a sizable stock market. And yet, years of sanctions and other restrictions mean it’s tough to even look up its stock prices (much less invest there.) In this episode, we catch up with Maciej Wojtal, CEO and CIO of AmtelonCapital, an Amsterdam-based fund that specializes in Iranian stocks. We talk about what the past week has been like for the market, what he’s hearing from people on the ground in Tehran, plus disruptions to businesses and oil. We talk about how Iranian investors handle major geopolitical risk and the outlook from here.
Read more: Iran’s Khamenei Says US Intervention in War Achieved Nothing
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Speaker 1 (00:02):
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. Yes, anyway, it's a
typical Polish name, and it's a it's a difficult one,
and there was no English equivalent.
Speaker 2 (00:16):
My mother speaks like nine languages, so and she was
a linguist, and she said she found Polish to be
the hardest. And she even like speaks like some like
she's learned like some Russian and some Malay, and all.
Speaker 3 (00:28):
This questions supposed to be the hardest, she.
Speaker 2 (00:29):
Said, from a pronunciation standpoint, she found Polish to be
the hardest. Anyway, I did a dead list.
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I'm both the.
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We do have the.
Speaker 2 (01:13):
Welcome to lots more where we catch up with friends
about what's going.
Speaker 3 (01:16):
On right now, because even when odd Lots is over,
there's always lots more.
Speaker 2 (01:21):
And we really do have the perfect guest.
Speaker 3 (01:27):
One thing we have learned in all our episodes looking
at the Iranian stock market, and there have been a couple, yes,
but one thing we've learned is that Iran is actually
the thirty seventh biggest economy in the world by nominal GDP.
Can you guess like another economy that is roughly that size?
Speaker 2 (01:46):
Oh that's a really So what is roughly similar to
the Iranian I don't know, go on.
Speaker 3 (01:52):
Okay, well one of them is Denmark, so you know
that's pretty big. But then when you start looking at
things like geographical size, Iran is I think the seventeenth
biggest country in the world by geographical size. It has
a lot of people as well, so you know, similar
to Turkey in terms of post I know you.
Speaker 2 (02:10):
Know, I know the population now, Oh well yeah, because
Ted Cruz got stumped on it when he went on
Tucker Carlson Show. So we all know that Iran has
a population of around ninety million. No one, no one, yeah,
he should have. No one is ever going to make
that mistake again.
Speaker 3 (02:25):
That's right. That should have been my first question.
Speaker 2 (02:27):
Can I say something when there's geopolitical events happening in
the world on a weekend when nothing is treating so
one that you can look at what crypto is doing.
But every once in a while, when I'm in true
market siico mood, like I'll actually check, like, oh, what
is the Saudi market doing on a Saturday, or what
is the tel Aviv market doing on a Sunday?
Speaker 3 (02:46):
There are siico mode that's just being international.
Speaker 2 (02:49):
Well, we're supposed to have the weekends to not be
looking up, but most of the time they're not. Every
point is everyone's in a while, like I'm gonna check
in and see how tel Aviv is trading on a
Sunday or something like that. That's how that's how you
know something is happening.
Speaker 3 (03:03):
Yeah, But the one market that you can't really look up,
that's right is Iran stock market and the Tran Stock
Exchange specifically, which again, as we know from previous episodes,
has more than six hundred companies and is worth I
think it was almost one hundred billion dollars. I don't
know if it's still that much, but I'm always brilliant.
Speaker 4 (03:21):
Around one hundred and fifty billion dollars one.
Speaker 3 (03:23):
Hundred and fifty Oh wow. Okay, we're speaking with Matya Voutal.
He is CEO and CIO of Antlon Capital, which is
an Amsterdam based fund manager which specializes in Iranian stocks.
He's been on the show a couple of times before,
and we thought we would talk to him again just
to try to get a sense of what's going on
in terms of Iran's economy and it's stock market.
Speaker 1 (03:45):
What is going on if I can just comment on
one thing, because the way you introduced your own is
the perfect way to show the country. It's the size
of Turkey in terms of population and actually geographical size
as well.
Speaker 4 (03:58):
But if you.
Speaker 1 (03:58):
Compare the economy of an Iran, it's around five times smaller.
Speaker 4 (04:03):
So Iran is around five times smaller.
Speaker 1 (04:06):
And if you look at the composition of the economy,
Turkey has no natural resources, so they have to import
the whole energy commodities they consume and so on. Iran
has the similar size of potential non commodity GDP that
it could grow to. So from the current let's say
two hundred and fifty billion to one point one trillion
(04:26):
GDP that Turkey has, but also on top of this
has resources that are actually if you combine gas and oil,
they are bigger than Saudi Arabia's and Saudi Arabia is
another one point, I think three trillion dollar economy. So
this is a good way to just frame Iran as
to show Iran, as you know, it's a big country
(04:46):
that should really be having much bigger economy. Because of sanctions,
various reasons and so on, it's been underdeveloped.
Speaker 4 (04:53):
But the scale of this underdevelopment is like ten x wow.
Speaker 3 (04:57):
And because of the sanctions, we can't actually go and
look up what's happening in Tehran's stock market, So why
don't you give us an overview of what it's been
like for the past week given geopolitical events.
Speaker 1 (05:10):
So for the past week, it was difficult for everyone
to check what was going on in Iran because internet
was shut down basically, so I could communicate with my
team on the ground in Tehran once a day when
they had signal, and sometimes it was what's up that
was working, sometimes telegram, but it was maybe once or
twice per day. So what was going on in the
(05:30):
market was simply nothing. So the stock market hasn't opened.
The shange of fire between Iran and Israel happened on
a Friday, which is weekend in Iran, and then on
the following Saturday there was an important religious holiday, so
the market and actually the whole economy was supposed to
be closed anyway, the economic activity the market was supposed
(05:53):
to resume on a Sunday, but they didn't open, so
the market, the stock market, pretty much most of the
currency market has been closed for the last two weeks.
Speaker 2 (06:03):
Assuming out for a second. Actually, there are two early
things that strike me. One, this is true frontier market
investing when you're in a position in which you literally
cannot easily communicate with your team on the ground because
there are a lack of internet or lack of communications.
But it strikes me that in some sense this is
(06:24):
what the fund manager gets paid for, because for many reasons,
including the fact that it's not trivial to look up
data or even access to these markets, a lot of
investors are never going to be participating in this market.
And then you layer in on all these additional complications
like this is essentially, at least in theory, the deep
risks that in theory you get compensated.
Speaker 1 (06:45):
For Yeah, you get compensated for actually giving access to
the market because it's very difficult or impossible to get
access at this moment as a non resident team run
to the local stock market. But also you get paid
for solving all the operational programs. You know, we have
quite a long track record in Iran and the main
thing actually that we are really proud of because investing
(07:06):
when everything is priced for war is fairly easy, right,
And also you have a market that is very inefficient
because it's driven by retail investors, Like ninety percent of
daily flows are coming from retail. So there is a
lot of alpha, a lot of inefficiencies that you can harvest.
But the real issue is our operations. One thing is
due diligence. I mean, you know a lot of sanctioned
(07:28):
restrictions which are not on the whole country, but we're
related to many different entities, sectors.
Speaker 4 (07:35):
And so on.
Speaker 1 (07:35):
So you have to do due diligence on every single
decision you're taking, before every decision you're taking. But also
you need to solve the problems. For example, the problem
of changing currency making transfers. Iranian banks are not connected
to the Swift system there are specialized banks that actually
do for example, payment for humanitarian trade with Venezuela right
(07:59):
or Iran, so food medical devices.
Speaker 4 (08:01):
This is never under sanctions and you need to be
able to pay for it.
Speaker 1 (08:04):
But those transfers take like nine months to execute, right.
I remember we once had to process a payment for
it like a very very official way. We had to
have the signature of the actual minister in Iran approving
the payment, right, So it took.
Speaker 4 (08:21):
Nine months al together. But there are other ways.
Speaker 1 (08:24):
There are other corridors, payment corridors that across emerging markets
and including Iran, that make it much more efficient. So
for example, right now, when you have the stock market,
the currency market were shut down, but you could track
the exchange rate, what's going on with the exchange rate
of the Iranian real versus dollar, either on telegram chats
but also oncurrency exchanges, so you have you know, liquid
(08:48):
market on stable coins versus Iranian real inside of Iran,
where well liquidity was limited during the last period anyway,
but we could see the changes, so we knew that
one dollar before the war was at around eight hundred
thirty thousand reals per one dollar. Then it went up
roughly fifteen percent to nine hundred fifty thousand, and now
(09:11):
after the ceasefire it's back down at eight hundred fifty thousand.
So you can track the market, you can actually make
transactions depending on on the liquidity.
Speaker 4 (09:21):
But it is possible.
Speaker 1 (09:23):
And to be honest, I mean when I saw those
exchange rates moves fifteen percent, when you have a war
where a lot of commentators were saying that this could
turn into a massive worldwide conflict, that fifteen percent in
a country like you run, I would say that this is.
Speaker 4 (09:38):
Your usual volatility on the currency market.
Speaker 3 (09:42):
Wait, so when you're talking to your team on the ground,
when you can get hold of them, what are the
questions you're asking them exactly? Because the markets are closed,
so presumably you're not marking your portfolio to market on
a daily basis, But what information are you trying to get?
Speaker 1 (09:57):
Well, the first few days, the only information I was
interested in was if they were safe, to be honest,
because you know, the the what residents of Tehran and
some other cities experience was they've never experienced just explosions
in the city.
Speaker 4 (10:11):
It's like the older Iranians compared it to the eighties
when Iran was fighting Saddam Hussein in Iraq. And this
is when you know.
Speaker 1 (10:18):
The last last time, when when someone was firing missiles
at Iranian cities.
Speaker 4 (10:23):
So after a.
Speaker 1 (10:25):
Few explosions that were too close to home, they basically evacuated.
They moved to smaller cities. And this was a big
trend in Iran. So in Tehran, a lot of residents
were just relocating out of Tehran. Tehran is a big city,
it's like twelve million people and they were moving mainly
north to some smaller cities by the cast and sea.
Speaker 4 (10:45):
So you had massive congestion.
Speaker 1 (10:47):
People were spending hours in traffic jams trying to get
out of the Tehran. There was not enough petrol on
gas stations just because of this peak in demand. You
had some petrol rationing and then I was as them, okay,
so is the economy working?
Speaker 4 (11:01):
Not working? So everything that was non essential basically was closed.
Speaker 1 (11:06):
So you couldn't I don't know built by building materials
or if you make this, but groceries, pharmaceuticals, gas stations, banks,
This was all open and working properly with some disruptions.
But those disruptions, for example, if you wanted to buy
groceries in north of Iran where everyone has just relocated.
(11:26):
You had some bottlenecks, logistical bottlenecks, so distribution was not
fast enough. So you had some shortages just for a
little while with banks when some branches were not operating
a one hundred percent capacity. But two banks got hacked, so
you had some cyber attacks on two banks that you ran,
and one cryptocurrency exchange. The rest of the banking sector
(11:49):
was working without any disruptions.
Speaker 4 (11:50):
You could get cash.
Speaker 1 (11:51):
From many atm so there was there were no problems
like this. So these are the questions about everyday life.
And then, very importantly, had any listed companies reported any damages?
Right that? Has there been any destruction to civilian infrastructure
important for the riding economy.
Speaker 2 (12:23):
It's pretty crazy how hard it is apparently to get data.
I'm actually at the tront stock Exchange Wikipedia page, and
whoever maintains that page hasn't updated the number of listed
companies as two thousand and nine, and there's a stock
market chart here that goes to twenty fourteen, setting aside
the last couple of weeks. How have Iranian stocks been
doing the last year or a couple of years.
Speaker 4 (12:46):
Yeah, So Iranian stocks.
Speaker 1 (12:48):
You have to observe it in US dollars or in
any hard currency, right because in local currency obviously doesn't
tell you anything. If you looked at the stock market
in Zimbabwe when Zimbabwe was going bus the stock market
was performing amazingly in nominal terms in local currency terms,
but obviously in dollars it was going to zero. And
it's interesting because, Okay, there is information, very up to date,
(13:12):
detailed information on Iranian stocks available in Iran, but the
majority of this information is not accessible if you're trying
to access it from a computer with your IP address
outside of your so a lot of this information is
restricted to Iran IP only, but you cannot find anywhere
on the whole Internet.
Speaker 4 (13:33):
Right, there is no website that.
Speaker 1 (13:35):
Shows the stock market index in dollars. So when we
send it out to our investors.
Speaker 4 (13:41):
Or just people who.
Speaker 1 (13:43):
Want to read news about the stock market in Iran,
we are the only source of this information.
Speaker 4 (13:47):
This is quite amazing.
Speaker 1 (13:47):
I mean, it's a country of nineteen million people and
you know stock market with seven hundred companies, and there
is no single place in Internet that would show you
the only important index.
Speaker 3 (13:57):
Right, Yeah, that's really stunning. Okay, So when I think
of the Iranian stock market, I think of two things.
I think oil and then I think geopolitical risk. How
does the market typically handle or what do those exposures
actually look like and do when there's a big event
such as what we saw in the past week.
Speaker 1 (14:18):
So in terms of oil, oil is not really publicly traded.
There is one Iranian monopoly called National Iranian Oil Corporation
or company that is responsible for production.
Speaker 4 (14:32):
Yeah, I think this is all centralized in one company,
and this is held by the government, so it's not
publicly listed.
Speaker 1 (14:38):
You have some exposure to oil through oil refineries that
are listed, but refineries don't trade. They're not sensitive to
the price of oil. They are sensitive to the to
the crack spread, right, which which defines their margin on
the refining margin, so they are not really per proxy
to oil prices. The whole stock market actually is will diversify,
(15:00):
so you have you know, large sectors such as chemicals.
Mainly these are like petrochemicals, I don't know companies that
produce different products different versions. Use natural gas that is
in large supply as a cheap commodity and produce fertilizers
or products like this right, so this is probably twenty
percent of the stock market. Then you have steel companies.
(15:21):
The largest steel company in the Middle East is in Iran.
You have car makers that produce around one million cars,
more than one million cars a year. So with car
manufacturers you have all the related industries suppliers you know,
to the car manufacturing businesses. You have banks, financials as
an important sector, plus some consumer exposures, some building materials,
(15:45):
some man companies are one of the best performance performance
over the last few years. Actually, yeah, so it's a
well diversified stock market like you ran an economy.
Speaker 2 (15:54):
Well, sorry, just to follow up on the question before.
In usd terms, generally, how has the Tehran stock market
been performing? Setting aside the fact.
Speaker 1 (16:04):
That sorry I didn't ask the question. Yes, so over
the last I don't know, eight years, I think. So,
let's say since the US and you ran signed the
nuclear deal back in twenty sixteen, so almost a decade ago,
it should be roughly double that level.
Speaker 4 (16:22):
Right now, So we doubled since then.
Speaker 1 (16:25):
But in the meantime there's been quite a lot of
roller coster So right in stocks in dollar terms are
three times lower right now, around three times lower compared
to the level back in twenty twenty. So if you
compare to August twenty twenty when there was a peak
of a local let's say, bull market and a bubble,
right now stocks are around three times lower than that
(16:48):
in dollar terms, and that's the main reason for that.
Speaker 4 (16:51):
Over the last two years has been the sentiment.
Speaker 1 (16:56):
Because twenty twenty three started to really well for the region.
There was this historical breakthrough agreement between Saudi Arabia and Iraq.
Both countries decided that they don't want conflict. They it
was basically like a peace treaty. They opened up embassies
in both countries and that was huge because Saudi finance
(17:18):
minister was talking about investment opportunities in Iran.
Speaker 4 (17:21):
Iran and exporters were.
Speaker 1 (17:23):
Hoping for new export markets to open up in the
region from Egypt to Saudi Arabia to whatever, all the
countries around.
Speaker 4 (17:31):
So there was like a very positive moment.
Speaker 1 (17:35):
At the same time, by the administration was negotiating with
the former Iranian government, so everything looked really really promising.
Speaker 4 (17:43):
Instead, obviously what happened in.
Speaker 1 (17:45):
October was Hamas was Gaza, and that changed everything, like
sentiment collapse and no one really wanted to look at
any risky assets in Iran. So you had a situation
where profits were going up. When you're looking at Iranians
enlisted companies, profits continue to grow, but the stock market
was going down. So obviously evaluations are just cheaper and
(18:08):
cheaper and cheaper. But everyone was focused basically on the
potential for the regional escalation rightfully so, and.
Speaker 4 (18:15):
Not on you know, taking risk in their portfolios.
Speaker 2 (18:18):
So just a big picture from your perspective, because thinking
back to your first answer where you talked about, Okay,
here's in theory what some comps could be and it
could look like Turkey, or it has resources potentially unscale
with Saudi Arabia. How much of the bet so to
speak from your perspective is what people would say, like
the option value from something happening, either it's a major
(18:42):
softening between Iran and the West, perhaps regime change, something
that triggers the big unlock, Like how much in your
mind is it about it? At some point something will reset
and some end that massive opportunity could actually be tapped.
Speaker 4 (18:58):
So you're asking about the potential of this opportunity.
Speaker 2 (19:01):
Yeah, Like basically like they didn't like basically Okay, it's
going to move around. There's sentiment here and there, but
that at some point down the future that actual opportunity
to be an economy and be a market on the
scale of a Turkey could one day actually realize through
some some switch that gets flipped.
Speaker 1 (19:17):
Look, this is probably, I mean, from my perspective, the
biggest optionality in enlisted markets, in public markets that you
can find.
Speaker 4 (19:25):
Yeah, because one thing is GDP and GDP the.
Speaker 1 (19:28):
Way I look at GDP currently, I mean if you
google it, it say it's around four hundred billion dollars,
we think it's more like two hundred and fifty billion dollars.
It depends on the exchange rate that you used to
calculate it. So let's say Iran is two hundred and
fifty billion dollars GDP, and now Iranian non oil economy,
non commodity economy, if everything goes well, could be as
(19:50):
big as Turkey, and Turkey is one point one trillion,
and this is without any commodity.
Speaker 2 (19:56):
But do it need to be do it need to
be an event like something would need happen?
Speaker 1 (20:01):
Right?
Speaker 4 (20:01):
Is right? Catalyst? Yeah? Absolutely, yeah, the catalyst is clear. Right, Okay,
I'll get back to the potential for GDP in a moment.
But the catalyst is absolutely clear.
Speaker 1 (20:12):
It must be the opening up of Iran as a
country and opening up of the economy and sanctions lifted,
the US sanctions lifted, right, so there must be an
agreement between the US and Iran.
Speaker 4 (20:22):
And what needs to happen well some sort.
Speaker 1 (20:25):
Of political change, so political attitude must change on both sides.
But to be honest, many analysts were expecting some big
dramatic event that needs to happen in Iran for the
country to properly open up. And when you look at
Iran right now and you compare to let's say even
(20:45):
a few years ago, when you had negotiations with the US,
what were the biggest problem was?
Speaker 4 (20:51):
It was always about two things. Iran and reaching uranium
too much basically at the wrong level.
Speaker 1 (20:57):
And the second Iranian region policies right, so financing proxies
from Hesbolau to Hamas you know those assad in Syria
and so on, right, So these two things were always
the problem that they couldn't negotiate over. When you look
at it right now, well, to an art extent, both
(21:18):
obstacles are gone. So potentially this opens up a path
to an agreement, an agreement like a proper agreement, so
not the type of nuclear agreement that was signed under
Obama administration, which was never strong enough. And I think
both Americans and Iranians understand this. I mean, proper agreement
that lists sanctions US sanctions two and opens up the
(21:41):
country to everyone, to including like US investors if.
Speaker 4 (21:45):
They want to tap into the opportunity.
Speaker 1 (21:47):
And I think, I mean, it seems that this is
the thinking in the US that if we do it,
we do it properly. And I think, I mean not that,
I think, I mean, what's what we've been hearing from
on the Iranian side, Like a few weeks ago when
they were still negotiating, it was the same thing that
they were showing Iran the whole economy as a big opportunity,
(22:09):
like a trillion dollar opportunity, right or two trillion dollar opportunity.
Speaker 4 (22:12):
I mean, it's a massive opportunity for all the investors.
Speaker 1 (22:14):
So this is the trigger, this is the catalyst then
will unlock this optionality, this potential of you run growing
GDP from the current two hundred and fifty billion two
in some perfect scenario to two point three trillion dollars,
which would be a combination of Saudi and Turkey CDP
obviously if everything went well well.
Speaker 3 (22:34):
But the other thing that's been happening over the past
week is we've had reports of an internal crackdown in
Iran and people getting arrested and things like that. And
when I think internal crackdown, I think hardening of capital controls,
which Iran already has. What are you hearing on that
side of things, because presumably that would make your life,
(22:54):
your job even harder.
Speaker 1 (22:57):
Look, capital controls have been in place for Iranian entities
for some time. When it comes to foreign investors, it's
obviously difficult to access, but everyone who is there and
you have some really really large one of the largest
Swiss companies, German companies, Japanese, French companies still there, not
(23:19):
increasing their scale of their operations, but just sustaining what
they've had for the last twenty.
Speaker 4 (23:25):
Years there, and they are welcome. Same with investors.
Speaker 1 (23:28):
I mean, Iran desperately needs capital in the form of
Verdi ideally, but portfolio investments as well channel funding through
the stock market to local private companies. So this is
badly needed and Iran is aware of that and understands.
This offers government guarantees. We have the same guarantees as
(23:49):
all the big European companies that are present there against
extropriation of assets and so on and so forth.
Speaker 4 (23:54):
So it's not.
Speaker 1 (23:55):
That you're not welcome as a foreign investor. Quite quite
the contrary. There are programs that are designed to make
your life easier. You could even actually if you invest
I don't remember it was around two hundred thousand euro
dollar equivalent, you get a residency in Iran if you're
interested in this for five years.
Speaker 4 (24:16):
I think so.
Speaker 1 (24:17):
There are many, many programs designed specifically for foreign investors
to make the local market more attractive.
Speaker 4 (24:23):
In terms of capital.
Speaker 1 (24:24):
Controls for local residents have been always in place, so
limits on how much of foreign currency they are able
to buy and for what purposes. Right, so, if you
want to send your child to school in the US
or somewhere and you have to pay for education, this
has like different quotas.
Speaker 4 (24:41):
Right.
Speaker 1 (24:41):
If you want to travel, this is different, but it's
very very formalized and bureaucratic.
Speaker 2 (24:47):
Other tech companies that trade on the turn stock market.
Speaker 4 (24:51):
There are tech companies.
Speaker 1 (24:52):
The ones that are that are listed are related to
enterprise software.
Speaker 4 (25:00):
Or sub German. Yeah, SAP. But you have privately held companies.
Speaker 1 (25:04):
That would like to IPO, but they are just waiting
for the approval from the regulator. And these are quite
amazing companies. You have Snap, which is like an Uber,
but Snap has more rights in Tehran than Uber in
any city in the world.
Speaker 4 (25:17):
It's a really world class company. You have Dijkala, which
is like a like.
Speaker 1 (25:21):
Amazon basically also a large company, one of the biggest
success stories. And many, many, many smaller e commerce companies
that are in the private market.
Speaker 2 (25:30):
We'll look out for them.
Speaker 3 (25:36):
Lots More is produced by Carmen Rodriguez and dash El Bennett,
with help from Moses onom and kel Brooks.
Speaker 2 (25:42):
Our sound engineer is Blake Maples. Sage Bauman is the
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Speaker 3 (25:47):
Please rate, review, and subscribe to our lots and lots
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Speaker 2 (25:52):
And remember that Bloomberg subscribers can listen to all of
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Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. Yes, anyway, it's a
typical Polish name, and it's a it's a difficult one,
and there was no English equivalent.
Speaker 2 (00:16):
My mother speaks like nine languages, so and she was
a linguist, and she said she found Polish to be
the hardest. And she even like speaks like some like
she's learned like some Russian and some Malay, and all.
Speaker 3 (00:28):
This questions supposed to be the hardest, she.
Speaker 2 (00:29):
Said, from a pronunciation standpoint, she found Polish to be
the hardest. Anyway, I did a dead list.
Speaker 4 (00:39):
I'm both the.
Speaker 3 (00:40):
Most popular trader and most successful trader at Citadel.
Speaker 2 (00:44):
That is going viral barches. This isn't after school special, except.
Speaker 3 (00:48):
I've decided I'm going to base my entire personality going
forward on campaigning for a strategic pork reserve.
Speaker 4 (00:53):
In the US.
Speaker 1 (00:54):
Black goal.
Speaker 2 (00:55):
These are the important question.
Speaker 3 (00:56):
Is that robots taking over the world?
Speaker 2 (00:58):
No, I see the like a couple of years, the
AI will do a really good job of making the
odd lotch podcast. One day that person will have the
mandate of Heaven.
Speaker 3 (01:07):
How do I get more popular and successful?
Speaker 4 (01:10):
We do have the.
Speaker 2 (01:13):
Welcome to lots more where we catch up with friends
about what's going.
Speaker 3 (01:16):
On right now, because even when odd Lots is over,
there's always lots more.
Speaker 2 (01:21):
And we really do have the perfect guest.
Speaker 3 (01:27):
One thing we have learned in all our episodes looking
at the Iranian stock market, and there have been a couple, yes,
but one thing we've learned is that Iran is actually
the thirty seventh biggest economy in the world by nominal GDP.
Can you guess like another economy that is roughly that size?
Speaker 2 (01:46):
Oh that's a really So what is roughly similar to
the Iranian I don't know, go on.
Speaker 3 (01:52):
Okay, well one of them is Denmark, so you know
that's pretty big. But then when you start looking at
things like geographical size, Iran is I think the seventeenth
biggest country in the world by geographical size. It has
a lot of people as well, so you know, similar
to Turkey in terms of post I know you.
Speaker 2 (02:10):
Know, I know the population now, Oh well yeah, because
Ted Cruz got stumped on it when he went on
Tucker Carlson Show. So we all know that Iran has
a population of around ninety million. No one, no one, yeah,
he should have. No one is ever going to make
that mistake again.
Speaker 3 (02:25):
That's right. That should have been my first question.
Speaker 2 (02:27):
Can I say something when there's geopolitical events happening in
the world on a weekend when nothing is treating so
one that you can look at what crypto is doing.
But every once in a while, when I'm in true
market siico mood, like I'll actually check, like, oh, what
is the Saudi market doing on a Saturday, or what
is the tel Aviv market doing on a Sunday?
Speaker 3 (02:46):
There are siico mode that's just being international.
Speaker 2 (02:49):
Well, we're supposed to have the weekends to not be
looking up, but most of the time they're not. Every
point is everyone's in a while, like I'm gonna check
in and see how tel Aviv is trading on a
Sunday or something like that. That's how that's how you
know something is happening.
Speaker 3 (03:03):
Yeah, But the one market that you can't really look up,
that's right is Iran stock market and the Tran Stock
Exchange specifically, which again, as we know from previous episodes,
has more than six hundred companies and is worth I
think it was almost one hundred billion dollars. I don't
know if it's still that much, but I'm always brilliant.
Speaker 4 (03:21):
Around one hundred and fifty billion dollars one.
Speaker 3 (03:23):
Hundred and fifty Oh wow. Okay, we're speaking with Matya Voutal.
He is CEO and CIO of Antlon Capital, which is
an Amsterdam based fund manager which specializes in Iranian stocks.
He's been on the show a couple of times before,
and we thought we would talk to him again just
to try to get a sense of what's going on
in terms of Iran's economy and it's stock market.
Speaker 1 (03:45):
What is going on if I can just comment on
one thing, because the way you introduced your own is
the perfect way to show the country. It's the size
of Turkey in terms of population and actually geographical size
as well.
Speaker 4 (03:58):
But if you.
Speaker 1 (03:58):
Compare the economy of an Iran, it's around five times smaller.
Speaker 4 (04:03):
So Iran is around five times smaller.
Speaker 1 (04:06):
And if you look at the composition of the economy,
Turkey has no natural resources, so they have to import
the whole energy commodities they consume and so on. Iran
has the similar size of potential non commodity GDP that
it could grow to. So from the current let's say
two hundred and fifty billion to one point one trillion
(04:26):
GDP that Turkey has, but also on top of this
has resources that are actually if you combine gas and oil,
they are bigger than Saudi Arabia's and Saudi Arabia is
another one point, I think three trillion dollar economy. So
this is a good way to just frame Iran as
to show Iran, as you know, it's a big country
(04:46):
that should really be having much bigger economy. Because of sanctions,
various reasons and so on, it's been underdeveloped.
Speaker 4 (04:53):
But the scale of this underdevelopment is like ten x wow.
Speaker 3 (04:57):
And because of the sanctions, we can't actually go and
look up what's happening in Tehran's stock market, So why
don't you give us an overview of what it's been
like for the past week given geopolitical events.
Speaker 1 (05:10):
So for the past week, it was difficult for everyone
to check what was going on in Iran because internet
was shut down basically, so I could communicate with my
team on the ground in Tehran once a day when
they had signal, and sometimes it was what's up that
was working, sometimes telegram, but it was maybe once or
twice per day. So what was going on in the
(05:30):
market was simply nothing. So the stock market hasn't opened.
The shange of fire between Iran and Israel happened on
a Friday, which is weekend in Iran, and then on
the following Saturday there was an important religious holiday, so
the market and actually the whole economy was supposed to
be closed anyway, the economic activity the market was supposed
(05:53):
to resume on a Sunday, but they didn't open, so
the market, the stock market, pretty much most of the
currency market has been closed for the last two weeks.
Speaker 2 (06:03):
Assuming out for a second. Actually, there are two early
things that strike me. One, this is true frontier market
investing when you're in a position in which you literally
cannot easily communicate with your team on the ground because
there are a lack of internet or lack of communications.
But it strikes me that in some sense this is
(06:24):
what the fund manager gets paid for, because for many reasons,
including the fact that it's not trivial to look up
data or even access to these markets, a lot of
investors are never going to be participating in this market.
And then you layer in on all these additional complications
like this is essentially, at least in theory, the deep
risks that in theory you get compensated.
Speaker 1 (06:45):
For Yeah, you get compensated for actually giving access to
the market because it's very difficult or impossible to get
access at this moment as a non resident team run
to the local stock market. But also you get paid
for solving all the operational programs. You know, we have
quite a long track record in Iran and the main
thing actually that we are really proud of because investing
(07:06):
when everything is priced for war is fairly easy, right,
And also you have a market that is very inefficient
because it's driven by retail investors, Like ninety percent of
daily flows are coming from retail. So there is a
lot of alpha, a lot of inefficiencies that you can harvest.
But the real issue is our operations. One thing is
due diligence. I mean, you know a lot of sanctioned
(07:28):
restrictions which are not on the whole country, but we're
related to many different entities, sectors.
Speaker 4 (07:35):
And so on.
Speaker 1 (07:35):
So you have to do due diligence on every single
decision you're taking, before every decision you're taking. But also
you need to solve the problems. For example, the problem
of changing currency making transfers. Iranian banks are not connected
to the Swift system there are specialized banks that actually
do for example, payment for humanitarian trade with Venezuela right
(07:59):
or Iran, so food medical devices.
Speaker 4 (08:01):
This is never under sanctions and you need to be
able to pay for it.
Speaker 1 (08:04):
But those transfers take like nine months to execute, right.
I remember we once had to process a payment for
it like a very very official way. We had to
have the signature of the actual minister in Iran approving
the payment, right, So it took.
Speaker 4 (08:21):
Nine months al together. But there are other ways.
Speaker 1 (08:24):
There are other corridors, payment corridors that across emerging markets
and including Iran, that make it much more efficient. So
for example, right now, when you have the stock market,
the currency market were shut down, but you could track
the exchange rate, what's going on with the exchange rate
of the Iranian real versus dollar, either on telegram chats
but also oncurrency exchanges, so you have you know, liquid
(08:48):
market on stable coins versus Iranian real inside of Iran,
where well liquidity was limited during the last period anyway,
but we could see the changes, so we knew that
one dollar before the war was at around eight hundred
thirty thousand reals per one dollar. Then it went up
roughly fifteen percent to nine hundred fifty thousand, and now
(09:11):
after the ceasefire it's back down at eight hundred fifty thousand.
So you can track the market, you can actually make
transactions depending on on the liquidity.
Speaker 4 (09:21):
But it is possible.
Speaker 1 (09:23):
And to be honest, I mean when I saw those
exchange rates moves fifteen percent, when you have a war
where a lot of commentators were saying that this could
turn into a massive worldwide conflict, that fifteen percent in
a country like you run, I would say that this is.
Speaker 4 (09:38):
Your usual volatility on the currency market.
Speaker 3 (09:42):
Wait, so when you're talking to your team on the ground,
when you can get hold of them, what are the
questions you're asking them exactly? Because the markets are closed,
so presumably you're not marking your portfolio to market on
a daily basis, But what information are you trying to get?
Speaker 1 (09:57):
Well, the first few days, the only information I was
interested in was if they were safe, to be honest,
because you know, the the what residents of Tehran and
some other cities experience was they've never experienced just explosions
in the city.
Speaker 4 (10:11):
It's like the older Iranians compared it to the eighties
when Iran was fighting Saddam Hussein in Iraq. And this
is when you know.
Speaker 1 (10:18):
The last last time, when when someone was firing missiles
at Iranian cities.
Speaker 4 (10:23):
So after a.
Speaker 1 (10:25):
Few explosions that were too close to home, they basically evacuated.
They moved to smaller cities. And this was a big
trend in Iran. So in Tehran, a lot of residents
were just relocating out of Tehran. Tehran is a big city,
it's like twelve million people and they were moving mainly
north to some smaller cities by the cast and sea.
Speaker 4 (10:45):
So you had massive congestion.
Speaker 1 (10:47):
People were spending hours in traffic jams trying to get
out of the Tehran. There was not enough petrol on
gas stations just because of this peak in demand. You
had some petrol rationing and then I was as them, okay,
so is the economy working?
Speaker 4 (11:01):
Not working? So everything that was non essential basically was closed.
Speaker 1 (11:06):
So you couldn't I don't know built by building materials
or if you make this, but groceries, pharmaceuticals, gas stations, banks,
This was all open and working properly with some disruptions.
But those disruptions, for example, if you wanted to buy
groceries in north of Iran where everyone has just relocated.
(11:26):
You had some bottlenecks, logistical bottlenecks, so distribution was not
fast enough. So you had some shortages just for a
little while with banks when some branches were not operating
a one hundred percent capacity. But two banks got hacked, so
you had some cyber attacks on two banks that you ran,
and one cryptocurrency exchange. The rest of the banking sector
(11:49):
was working without any disruptions.
Speaker 4 (11:50):
You could get cash.
Speaker 1 (11:51):
From many atm so there was there were no problems
like this. So these are the questions about everyday life.
And then, very importantly, had any listed companies reported any damages?
Right that? Has there been any destruction to civilian infrastructure
important for the riding economy.
Speaker 2 (12:23):
It's pretty crazy how hard it is apparently to get data.
I'm actually at the tront stock Exchange Wikipedia page, and
whoever maintains that page hasn't updated the number of listed
companies as two thousand and nine, and there's a stock
market chart here that goes to twenty fourteen, setting aside
the last couple of weeks. How have Iranian stocks been
doing the last year or a couple of years.
Speaker 4 (12:46):
Yeah, So Iranian stocks.
Speaker 1 (12:48):
You have to observe it in US dollars or in
any hard currency, right because in local currency obviously doesn't
tell you anything. If you looked at the stock market
in Zimbabwe when Zimbabwe was going bus the stock market
was performing amazingly in nominal terms in local currency terms,
but obviously in dollars it was going to zero. And
it's interesting because, Okay, there is information, very up to date,
(13:12):
detailed information on Iranian stocks available in Iran, but the
majority of this information is not accessible if you're trying
to access it from a computer with your IP address
outside of your so a lot of this information is
restricted to Iran IP only, but you cannot find anywhere
on the whole Internet.
Speaker 4 (13:33):
Right, there is no website that.
Speaker 1 (13:35):
Shows the stock market index in dollars. So when we
send it out to our investors.
Speaker 4 (13:41):
Or just people who.
Speaker 1 (13:43):
Want to read news about the stock market in Iran,
we are the only source of this information.
Speaker 4 (13:47):
This is quite amazing.
Speaker 1 (13:47):
I mean, it's a country of nineteen million people and
you know stock market with seven hundred companies, and there
is no single place in Internet that would show you
the only important index.
Speaker 3 (13:57):
Right, Yeah, that's really stunning. Okay, So when I think
of the Iranian stock market, I think of two things.
I think oil and then I think geopolitical risk. How
does the market typically handle or what do those exposures
actually look like and do when there's a big event
such as what we saw in the past week.
Speaker 1 (14:18):
So in terms of oil, oil is not really publicly traded.
There is one Iranian monopoly called National Iranian Oil Corporation
or company that is responsible for production.
Speaker 4 (14:32):
Yeah, I think this is all centralized in one company,
and this is held by the government, so it's not
publicly listed.
Speaker 1 (14:38):
You have some exposure to oil through oil refineries that
are listed, but refineries don't trade. They're not sensitive to
the price of oil. They are sensitive to the to
the crack spread, right, which which defines their margin on
the refining margin, so they are not really per proxy
to oil prices. The whole stock market actually is will diversify,
(15:00):
so you have you know, large sectors such as chemicals.
Mainly these are like petrochemicals, I don't know companies that
produce different products different versions. Use natural gas that is
in large supply as a cheap commodity and produce fertilizers
or products like this right, so this is probably twenty
percent of the stock market. Then you have steel companies.
(15:21):
The largest steel company in the Middle East is in Iran.
You have car makers that produce around one million cars,
more than one million cars a year. So with car
manufacturers you have all the related industries suppliers you know,
to the car manufacturing businesses. You have banks, financials as
an important sector, plus some consumer exposures, some building materials,
(15:45):
some man companies are one of the best performance performance
over the last few years. Actually, yeah, so it's a
well diversified stock market like you ran an economy.
Speaker 2 (15:54):
Well, sorry, just to follow up on the question before.
In usd terms, generally, how has the Tehran stock market
been performing? Setting aside the fact.
Speaker 1 (16:04):
That sorry I didn't ask the question. Yes, so over
the last I don't know, eight years, I think. So,
let's say since the US and you ran signed the
nuclear deal back in twenty sixteen, so almost a decade ago,
it should be roughly double that level.
Speaker 4 (16:22):
Right now, So we doubled since then.
Speaker 1 (16:25):
But in the meantime there's been quite a lot of
roller coster So right in stocks in dollar terms are
three times lower right now, around three times lower compared
to the level back in twenty twenty. So if you
compare to August twenty twenty when there was a peak
of a local let's say, bull market and a bubble,
right now stocks are around three times lower than that
(16:48):
in dollar terms, and that's the main reason for that.
Speaker 4 (16:51):
Over the last two years has been the sentiment.
Speaker 1 (16:56):
Because twenty twenty three started to really well for the region.
There was this historical breakthrough agreement between Saudi Arabia and Iraq.
Both countries decided that they don't want conflict. They it
was basically like a peace treaty. They opened up embassies
in both countries and that was huge because Saudi finance
(17:18):
minister was talking about investment opportunities in Iran.
Speaker 4 (17:21):
Iran and exporters were.
Speaker 1 (17:23):
Hoping for new export markets to open up in the
region from Egypt to Saudi Arabia to whatever, all the
countries around.
Speaker 4 (17:31):
So there was like a very positive moment.
Speaker 1 (17:35):
At the same time, by the administration was negotiating with
the former Iranian government, so everything looked really really promising.
Speaker 4 (17:43):
Instead, obviously what happened in.
Speaker 1 (17:45):
October was Hamas was Gaza, and that changed everything, like
sentiment collapse and no one really wanted to look at
any risky assets in Iran. So you had a situation
where profits were going up. When you're looking at Iranians
enlisted companies, profits continue to grow, but the stock market
was going down. So obviously evaluations are just cheaper and
(18:08):
cheaper and cheaper. But everyone was focused basically on the
potential for the regional escalation rightfully so, and.
Speaker 4 (18:15):
Not on you know, taking risk in their portfolios.
Speaker 2 (18:18):
So just a big picture from your perspective, because thinking
back to your first answer where you talked about, Okay,
here's in theory what some comps could be and it
could look like Turkey, or it has resources potentially unscale
with Saudi Arabia. How much of the bet so to
speak from your perspective is what people would say, like
the option value from something happening, either it's a major
(18:42):
softening between Iran and the West, perhaps regime change, something
that triggers the big unlock, Like how much in your
mind is it about it? At some point something will reset
and some end that massive opportunity could actually be tapped.
Speaker 4 (18:58):
So you're asking about the potential of this opportunity.
Speaker 2 (19:01):
Yeah, Like basically like they didn't like basically Okay, it's
going to move around. There's sentiment here and there, but
that at some point down the future that actual opportunity
to be an economy and be a market on the
scale of a Turkey could one day actually realize through
some some switch that gets flipped.
Speaker 1 (19:17):
Look, this is probably, I mean, from my perspective, the
biggest optionality in enlisted markets, in public markets that you
can find.
Speaker 4 (19:25):
Yeah, because one thing is GDP and GDP the.
Speaker 1 (19:28):
Way I look at GDP currently, I mean if you
google it, it say it's around four hundred billion dollars,
we think it's more like two hundred and fifty billion dollars.
It depends on the exchange rate that you used to
calculate it. So let's say Iran is two hundred and
fifty billion dollars GDP, and now Iranian non oil economy,
non commodity economy, if everything goes well, could be as
(19:50):
big as Turkey, and Turkey is one point one trillion,
and this is without any commodity.
Speaker 2 (19:56):
But do it need to be do it need to
be an event like something would need happen?
Speaker 1 (20:01):
Right?
Speaker 4 (20:01):
Is right? Catalyst? Yeah? Absolutely, yeah, the catalyst is clear. Right, Okay,
I'll get back to the potential for GDP in a moment.
But the catalyst is absolutely clear.
Speaker 1 (20:12):
It must be the opening up of Iran as a
country and opening up of the economy and sanctions lifted,
the US sanctions lifted, right, so there must be an
agreement between the US and Iran.
Speaker 4 (20:22):
And what needs to happen well some sort.
Speaker 1 (20:25):
Of political change, so political attitude must change on both sides.
But to be honest, many analysts were expecting some big
dramatic event that needs to happen in Iran for the
country to properly open up. And when you look at
Iran right now and you compare to let's say even
(20:45):
a few years ago, when you had negotiations with the US,
what were the biggest problem was?
Speaker 4 (20:51):
It was always about two things. Iran and reaching uranium
too much basically at the wrong level.
Speaker 1 (20:57):
And the second Iranian region policies right, so financing proxies
from Hesbolau to Hamas you know those assad in Syria
and so on, right, So these two things were always
the problem that they couldn't negotiate over. When you look
at it right now, well, to an art extent, both
(21:18):
obstacles are gone. So potentially this opens up a path
to an agreement, an agreement like a proper agreement, so
not the type of nuclear agreement that was signed under
Obama administration, which was never strong enough. And I think
both Americans and Iranians understand this. I mean, proper agreement
that lists sanctions US sanctions two and opens up the
(21:41):
country to everyone, to including like US investors if.
Speaker 4 (21:45):
They want to tap into the opportunity.
Speaker 1 (21:47):
And I think, I mean, it seems that this is
the thinking in the US that if we do it,
we do it properly. And I think, I mean not that,
I think, I mean, what's what we've been hearing from
on the Iranian side, Like a few weeks ago when
they were still negotiating, it was the same thing that
they were showing Iran the whole economy as a big opportunity,
(22:09):
like a trillion dollar opportunity, right or two trillion dollar opportunity.
Speaker 4 (22:12):
I mean, it's a massive opportunity for all the investors.
Speaker 1 (22:14):
So this is the trigger, this is the catalyst then
will unlock this optionality, this potential of you run growing
GDP from the current two hundred and fifty billion two
in some perfect scenario to two point three trillion dollars,
which would be a combination of Saudi and Turkey CDP
obviously if everything went well well.
Speaker 3 (22:34):
But the other thing that's been happening over the past
week is we've had reports of an internal crackdown in
Iran and people getting arrested and things like that. And
when I think internal crackdown, I think hardening of capital controls,
which Iran already has. What are you hearing on that
side of things, because presumably that would make your life,
(22:54):
your job even harder.
Speaker 1 (22:57):
Look, capital controls have been in place for Iranian entities
for some time. When it comes to foreign investors, it's
obviously difficult to access, but everyone who is there and
you have some really really large one of the largest
Swiss companies, German companies, Japanese, French companies still there, not
(23:19):
increasing their scale of their operations, but just sustaining what
they've had for the last twenty.
Speaker 4 (23:25):
Years there, and they are welcome. Same with investors.
Speaker 1 (23:28):
I mean, Iran desperately needs capital in the form of
Verdi ideally, but portfolio investments as well channel funding through
the stock market to local private companies. So this is
badly needed and Iran is aware of that and understands.
This offers government guarantees. We have the same guarantees as
(23:49):
all the big European companies that are present there against
extropriation of assets and so on and so forth.
Speaker 4 (23:54):
So it's not.
Speaker 1 (23:55):
That you're not welcome as a foreign investor. Quite quite
the contrary. There are programs that are designed to make
your life easier. You could even actually if you invest
I don't remember it was around two hundred thousand euro
dollar equivalent, you get a residency in Iran if you're
interested in this for five years.
Speaker 4 (24:16):
I think so.
Speaker 1 (24:17):
There are many, many programs designed specifically for foreign investors
to make the local market more attractive.
Speaker 4 (24:23):
In terms of capital.
Speaker 1 (24:24):
Controls for local residents have been always in place, so
limits on how much of foreign currency they are able
to buy and for what purposes. Right, so, if you
want to send your child to school in the US
or somewhere and you have to pay for education, this
has like different quotas.
Speaker 4 (24:41):
Right.
Speaker 1 (24:41):
If you want to travel, this is different, but it's
very very formalized and bureaucratic.
Speaker 2 (24:47):
Other tech companies that trade on the turn stock market.
Speaker 4 (24:51):
There are tech companies.
Speaker 1 (24:52):
The ones that are that are listed are related to
enterprise software.
Speaker 4 (25:00):
Or sub German. Yeah, SAP. But you have privately held companies.
Speaker 1 (25:04):
That would like to IPO, but they are just waiting
for the approval from the regulator. And these are quite
amazing companies. You have Snap, which is like an Uber,
but Snap has more rights in Tehran than Uber in
any city in the world.
Speaker 4 (25:17):
It's a really world class company. You have Dijkala, which
is like a like.
Speaker 1 (25:21):
Amazon basically also a large company, one of the biggest
success stories. And many, many, many smaller e commerce companies
that are in the private market.
Speaker 2 (25:30):
We'll look out for them.
Speaker 3 (25:36):
Lots More is produced by Carmen Rodriguez and dash El Bennett,
with help from Moses onom and kel Brooks.
Speaker 2 (25:42):
Our sound engineer is Blake Maples. Sage Bauman is the
head of Bloomberg Podcasts.
Speaker 3 (25:47):
Please rate, review, and subscribe to our lots and lots
More on your favorite podcast platforms.
Speaker 2 (25:52):
And remember that Bloomberg subscribers can listen to all of
our podcasts add free by connecting to Apple Podcasts. Thanks
for listening.
Hosts And Creators
Joe Weisenthal
Tracy Alloway
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