October 16, 2025 • 29 mins
Geopolitical tensions are stoking investor interest in shipping stocks as supply-demand dynamics turn more favorable for tanker and dry-bulk operators heading into 2026. Global containerliners, however, face a tougher outlook, with freight rates struggling to find support amid capacity growth outpacing demand. In this bonus episode of the Talking Transports podcast Bloomberg Intelligence senior freight transportation and logistics analyst Lee Klaskow hosts a panel with Fredrik Dybwad of Fearnley Securities and Kristoffer Barth Skeie of Arctic Securities. The analysts discuss rates, trade tensions, emissions goals, order books and their top investment ideas across the global marine shipping industry. The panel was recorded at a Bloomberg Intelligence event during London International Shipping Week on Sept. 16.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:07):
Hi everyone, this is Lee Clasgow and we're Talking Transports.
Welcome to Bloomberg Intelligence Talking Transports podcast. I'm your host,
Lee Clasgal, Senior Freight Transportation Logistics sandal Us at Bloomberg Intelligence,
Bloomberg's end house research arm of almost five hundred analysts
and strategists around the world. A quick public service announcement
before we dive in. Your support is instrumental to keep
(00:29):
bringing great guests and conversations to you, our listeners, and
we need your support. So please, if you enjoy this podcast,
share it, like it, and leave it comment. Also, if
you get ideas, feedback or just want to talk transports,
I'm always happy to connect. You can find me on
the Bloomberg terminal, on LinkedIn, or on Twitter at Logistics Lee.
(00:50):
Today's episode is a bonus episode taken from a panel
I moderated during a shipping event Bloomberg hosted on September sixteenth,
in conjunction with London International Ship Week. The panel consisted
of equity research analysts Frederick Didwatt from Friendly Securities and
Christopher Bartski from Arctic Securities. You will hear us discuss
(01:10):
the state and outlook for the liner, tanker and dryboat markets,
as well as their favorite names within the space. Hope
you enjoyed these conversations as much as I did.
Speaker 2 (01:21):
All right, good afternoon, Thanks for sticking around. This is
the equity analyst panel. You may not know, but I'm
Lee Clascow, Bloomberg Intelligence senior transportation logistics analysts. In to
my left we have Frederick Dibwad excuse me, an equity
research analyst at Friendly Securities, and then to his left
(01:43):
is Christopher bart Ski, an equity analyst at Arctic Security.
Speaker 3 (01:47):
So thank you very much for joining us, gentlemen.
Speaker 2 (01:50):
We talked about a lot of different sub segments within
the shipping markets, whether it's dryball, tankers, liners, from an
equity analysts standpoint, Frederick, once you start off, what is
the kind of the state of the industry from your perspective?
Speaker 4 (02:07):
You know, since you know, since the start of the year,
we had some headwinds on the entire most of the
shipping segments, but then we have Liberation Day and performance
on the shipping equity so that has been to be honest,
very there has been stellar since the Liberation Day and
forefronted by tankers have been really good. Containers have performed well,
drivable cast perform well, and the same can be sailable
(02:29):
but for the LPG guys as well. So I think
the state in the market is very good. Obviously, we
have a big order book in a lot of the segments,
which over time may pressure the supply demand balance, but overall,
I think shipping segment looks looks pretty good.
Speaker 2 (02:45):
Christopher, what are you looking at when when you're for
your outlook, you know which sub segment is better positioned
relative to the others.
Speaker 5 (02:53):
If we do just do an easy approach to start with,
I think one should look at the supplies side of
the equation. So order book is the easiest both to
start looking at, and then you have drible cat eleven
percent or the book the fleet trade show tankers at
fifteen percent, and then we have had quite massive ordering
(03:15):
among other sub segments.
Speaker 6 (03:18):
So I mean LNG and the.
Speaker 5 (03:21):
Order book there is forty five percent, car carriers mid thirties.
Then you have the VLGCS is around thirty percent, and
then containers which is now at thirty percent. Again, so
if you just look at where we're going to have
maybe struggles with over capacity over the coming years, I'm
(03:42):
guessing it will not be on the tankers and dribal style,
but the odor segments I'm a bit more skeptical about.
Speaker 2 (03:51):
In howbould you, fred do you have a differing opinion
or mostly in line?
Speaker 4 (03:56):
Yeah, you know it's it's mostly in line, I think,
you know, looking at space car carriers and containers, the
order book is is massive. Containers are they just continue
ordering vessels? Order book is actually the highest that it
has ever been in TU terms. Twenty twenty eight would
be the highest ever t US delivered. And you know,
echo most what Christophers say. And from a supply side
(04:19):
point of view, it definitely looks it looks very very
enticing on the bulker and the tanker side.
Speaker 2 (04:25):
And so, Frederick, what are your some of your favorite
ideas right now in terms of stock ideas that you're
talking to your clients about.
Speaker 4 (04:32):
Yeah, yeah, so I talk a lot of tankers. I
took a lot of bulkers. You can start with the
tanker side. Obviously, the VLCC trade is what's looking the
best at the moment. On the tanker side, you're the
top of the hierarchy. That's the last remaining piece of
the puzzle that hasn't really fired up on all cylinders
yet and now you're finally seeing it with a lot
(04:55):
of opeic plus controversals finally hitting the markets. We have
personality hitting them hitting the market. Then you are actually
at that at the seasonal slump. But field zer rates
are actually closing in one hundred thousand dollars a day
now and with more volumes the outlook of more volume
coming in the next couple of months, I think, you know,
the risky world is pretty good, and geopolitically as well,
(05:16):
you potentially have the you know, with say, for instance,
if Russia exports less soil, that would or may push
volumes over to the vlccs from the from the serious
and affrom acxsis. So I think you know, from our
top idea point of view, that's the vl ccs you
want to own in the tanker space at the moment.
Speaker 3 (05:36):
Can you name names.
Speaker 4 (05:38):
The front line dhd okayis. I think all those names
are are really attractive. And yeah, even after the recent
share rallies and share pricess dividends is really really compelling.
Still you know what you know, if you say the
rates stay in the mid sixties, you get fifteen percent
divident across the board.
Speaker 6 (05:57):
So I think that's pretty good.
Speaker 3 (05:59):
And how about you, what are your favorite names in
the space.
Speaker 6 (06:04):
Like the VS as well.
Speaker 5 (06:07):
But what I'm where I maybe differ a bit from
Frelic is that I believe that product rates will sort of.
Speaker 6 (06:16):
Benefit from a strong crude market.
Speaker 5 (06:19):
So what is typical the trade now among many is
that you go long crude and then you're maybe short product.
But if you look at the product order book, it's
nineteen percent and crude is twelve. But the l R
twos that's just basically an apromax with coating. So if
(06:39):
those vessels end up in the crew trade, then you're
suddenly left with the product order book to fleet ratio
of eleven percent, and that's suddenly not that demanding. And
the older sort of best idea we have is CMBT.
It's fifty book exposure, it's thirty percent tank or exposure.
(07:04):
It's an mv net asset value of four billion trading
at the thirty percent discount, So you get sort of
a lot of or quite decent entry points. I mean,
if you look at the crude names now, they're trading
at twenty percent premium, and then you also get a
(07:25):
lot of bank for the book through sixty seven percent NETALTV.
What many of these listed names have spent a lot
of time doing with years is not paying dividends. They
have reduced steps. I mean, you talk to Robot previously
hiss net cash in December, so that is sort of
(07:51):
good from playing the cycle from a long term perspective.
But if you're a shareholder or investor that can go
in and out so in a day of too, then
you could ease little lot of see the usoil of
having quite a lot of leverage, and that's what you're
getting in CMBT.
Speaker 2 (08:09):
You guys both you know, spend a lot of your
time talking to the buyside and perspective investors, investors that
are interested in shipping. Is it more institutional long money?
Is it hedge funds who likes to invest in shipping
from an equity standpoint?
Speaker 4 (08:27):
Yeah, I think that, you know, following the shipping booll
cycle you have now for the past four or five years,
the investor base have increased. So we talked to all
different topic clients without to family officers, institutions, hedge funds.
I think everyone is interested in shipping, and especially now
with the geopolitical backdrop with trade, with tariffs, with everything
that's going on, Shipping is in the middle of everything,
(08:48):
and slide change in tariffs impacts could impact several chipping segments.
Speaker 5 (08:54):
Right, So I think interest is really really high and Christopher,
do you have a interest? Is good but also sort
of echoing what you were saying earlier, Hammers, for some funds,
the market cap is sort of it's still too small,
(09:15):
still too little liquidity. So I think sort of interest
would increase. Also further if with sort of further m
and a activity we're seeing potentially Halffney on torn now
that would create the five point five billion dollar market
cap tanker company. So I think these type of events
(09:39):
would be good for the industry and interest.
Speaker 6 (09:42):
Right.
Speaker 2 (09:43):
So, you know, from my vantage point, shipping is a
pretty commoditized industry for the most part. So when you're
trying to evaluate stocks within a sub segment that you like,
how do different do you differentiate the stocks?
Speaker 3 (09:57):
Start with Efrederick.
Speaker 4 (09:58):
Yeah, So first of all, you you know, what is
your view on the market, right, that's the basis of everything.
And if you like the market, we usually differentiate the
stocks between you know, the fleet profile, that's one thing.
Age of the fleet, that's another factor. Do they have
a big SPS cycle coming up for instance, that can
you know, increase capex and reduce learning the temporarily. But
(10:20):
I think the most important thing that we have seen
during the past years in shipping is that it's cyclical
by nature, and as an investor, you want your money
back while the times are good, So high paying dividend
stocks is usually rewarded by higher evaluation.
Speaker 3 (10:36):
In Christopher, do.
Speaker 2 (10:37):
You how do you kind of evaluate names within a
sub segment.
Speaker 5 (10:42):
I think it's the same approach, and what we have
seen in recent years is that companies that have a
high distribution policy pay a lot of the EPs and dividends.
They tend to trade at premium. You see that now
in the tanker space. But that could also create a
(11:05):
bit of interesting situations like staying at least in our space,
that's the most discounted name and they have the youngest fleet.
Speaker 6 (11:16):
They are now net cash in at.
Speaker 5 (11:19):
Least on our figures in Q one and with no
material cappex apart from special surveys. That should be a
catalyst for an update the distribution polls.
Speaker 2 (11:33):
Here and you know we heard from the credit panel Earlier,
they were more focused on the liner market within your coverage.
You know, how do you view the container and liner
market from an equity standpoint, Christopher, if you want to
lead off.
Speaker 5 (11:51):
I think it's a bit difficult with the container market
now because the liners they seem to sort of this
agree with all the analysts sort of market experts out there,
because they are.
Speaker 6 (12:05):
In the market and shortering.
Speaker 5 (12:09):
Tonnage at sort of all time high levels and box
rates are falling month by month. So there's a huge
disconnect now between what the liners are willing to pay
and what they are getting paid.
Speaker 6 (12:24):
Basically, so.
Speaker 5 (12:28):
I have a cell recommendation on the liner company I cover,
but hold on the tonnage provider. And that's basically because
I see a lot of earnings risk on the liners.
Speaker 6 (12:42):
But for the tonnage providers, they are I mean they're.
Speaker 5 (12:46):
Trading more or less at the discounted value of the
EBITA backlog plus scrap. I mean, I mean there's a
lot of optionality value there and I don't see sort
of any real risk there either.
Speaker 3 (12:59):
I'm sorry, we're are some of the talentge providers.
Speaker 5 (13:02):
I mean in or slow, it's NPC container ships that's
most relevant.
Speaker 4 (13:07):
Y gotcha, Yeah, I can just echo what you say
on the liner side. You are now the the European
contract renegotiation period is approaching quickly. You have seen raids
coming down. I think there's a there's an obvious risk
to estimate in heading into next year. And if you
look at the name like like MRSK for instance, like
this year is training at three point five times ev
(13:28):
t bitar might sound cheap, but if you just extract,
do some calculations on what are the rates now, what
would you likely recontract those rates app for into next year?
And on our estimates you do go from a nine
billion libitar this year to five billion next year and
then that's seven times dbitar. Right, So I'm just like Christopher,
(13:48):
I have a Cellar recommendation, and I believe I believe
MURSK is actually screening as a very good short at
the moment due to that because it's screening cheap today
and they have the buyback program which creates a bit
but over time, I think gravity.
Speaker 6 (14:01):
Will work on the stock. Is a good point.
Speaker 5 (14:04):
I think many investors get lost in the ed e
bit tum multiples there. But if you look at price
to earnings we're at like around fifteen times or current
air So I don't find that really really attractive at
least given backdrop.
Speaker 3 (14:24):
And you do you either of you have sales and
anything else that you under your under your coverage.
Speaker 4 (14:30):
I have a Sealon car carriers, so that's more of
the same. Actually, you have this huge order book I
think now just about thirty percent. You will see high
fleet growth this year, next year and twenty twenty seven.
You have seen export of cars basically flattening out in Korea, Japan, Germany.
(14:51):
You still have growth in China, but you have seen
several countries, with the Mexico being the most recentable one,
increasing their tariffs on Chinese bold cars. And I think
part of the reason why that Chinese exports have been
growing much more on the relative compared to Japan, Korea
and germanists due to the fact that they have most
(15:11):
likely seen what's coming on the tariffs. You know, Mexico
is one of the single biggest importers of Chinese cars,
mostly ice cars actually not evs. But so I think
that you know, with those tariffs now coming into the plane,
the next couple of couple of months and quarters you
will see Chinese exports coming down as well because you
don't have the sales growth on the car side globally
(15:35):
to support as continued high growth of exports. So I
think the Chinese have actually just been stopping up inventories
across several big countries in the world and within the terraffs.
Speaker 2 (15:48):
In the tariffs the US arrets, have they impacted that
industry as well.
Speaker 4 (15:52):
Yeah, but that's not on the Chinese side. The US
practically doesn't import Chinese cars, but it's obvious impact on
Japanese Koreen and the German cars. So I think that
if you look at the backlog of the of the
companies we cover, Hook and the Valenius, you have a
sale on sell on both of them. It's just you
have a contract backlog with the fixed price per vehicle
(16:14):
that you transport, but the volume is variable. So that's
our take that we relead the volume will be lower,
so you don't get one hundred percent utilization of your contract.
And that's where we differ from from most of the consensus.
But as the consensus is actually a whole recommendation now
across that across that segments.
Speaker 3 (16:32):
Okay and Christopher within your coverage.
Speaker 2 (16:35):
I guess the more protectionist policies coming out of the US,
what companies have been impacted the most, and in which
are you feel an't going to feel the brand going forward?
In terms of tariffs, Yeah, teriffs.
Speaker 5 (16:51):
It's obviously containers, which is most directly are most directly exposed.
But could see an interesting situation I had with the
USDRS which are soon coming into place, could easily create
a tier one tier two market. And I mean at
(17:12):
first it looked really bad for shipping, but then it
has been a lot of exemptions and sort of US
understood that there needs to be a lot of exemptions
because they are suddenly net exporkers of molecules, so it
wouldn't make sense to sort of impose a lot of
(17:32):
tariffs on the commodities that they are selling. But that
is an uncertainty ahead on how that's going to play out.
Speaker 4 (17:45):
Yeah, I think you're actually starting to see that now,
especially on the VGC side. See the spread between raised
and East and West are actually widened lately because the
Chinese operates owned and operated Tonaea balaced into the Middle East.
Speaker 5 (17:57):
So it's there are fifty blgcs that are owned by
Chinese sentities and they will end up getting these port fits.
So and that represents two and a half percent of
the BLGC fits.
Speaker 6 (18:12):
So naturally you will get.
Speaker 5 (18:16):
I mean, over time, these two markets correlate very well,
and we'll probably do so. But you will probably get
some pockets from time to time where Middle East loadings
are at quite a discount to us.
Speaker 2 (18:30):
So I can't talk shipping without talking about emissions. So
you know, in your coverage universe, how do you think
the road to you know, twenty fifty zero emissions is
going to be met from your vantage point?
Speaker 3 (18:44):
If Frederick, if you want to start us off at that.
Speaker 4 (18:47):
Yeah, you know, it's a different, difficult question. But I
think that you will see several You will need to
have a wide cooperation between several institutions. Basically you will
need to get new serial mission fuels into the fleet,
but you also need to have bunkering and availability of that.
And if you take ammonia as an example, the energy
(19:09):
density of an ammonia molecules are much much lower than
bunkering oil. So if you just bunker up with ammonia
you can you can't sail as long as you can
with with with the regular bunkering, right, so you need
to have newer hubs, for example at the Cape or
a Namibia in Africa to serve that as a middle
middle bunkering vantage point, which you don't have today. But
(19:32):
I think that's part of it, and still is someone
uncertain dias on what fuel is going to be be
the future.
Speaker 3 (19:40):
Fool Christopher, do you do you have any thoughts on that?
Speaker 2 (19:44):
And also just you know, as a follow up, do
you think those goals are attainable?
Speaker 5 (19:51):
It doesn't seem like it. And the first thing or
the big boat upcoming is m a PC and let's
see what outcome there is. But it's difficult, right because
sixty two percent of all vessels being built now are
(20:13):
Chinese and energy seems like a decent solution at least
in sort of medium term. But if you opt for
LERG bunkering or dual fool engines, let's say on the
LCC with where many of the loadings are actually out
(20:36):
of the US, then if you're have a Chinese tonnachers
only being taxed with three million dollars per port visit
just to bunker. So I think there's a lot of
uncertainty around this and I mean you can just look
at the listed owners. Very few there to do anything
(20:58):
now because there's so much much Johnston.
Speaker 4 (21:00):
To Ye and vessels should operate for twenty twenty five years, right,
and twenty five years from a twenty fifty.
Speaker 5 (21:07):
So and our clients they care about next twelve months.
So it's not something I spent a lot of time
on really.
Speaker 2 (21:16):
So twenty twenty five is almost done. Looking into twenty
twenty six. You know, Christopher, what are you most optimistic
about as it relates to shipping in your universe?
Speaker 5 (21:29):
It's triable and tankers. I think we went through sort
of supply the mountain there. But it's also important to
sort of talk about the age profile of especially the
tanker fleet, which just extremely unique. The average age of
(21:51):
the fleet is fourteen years. It's the highest since two thousand.
If you just look at the number of vessels that
are above twenty years of age, we're at twenty percent
now and just factoring in the order book through twenty
twenty eight, you're about one thirds of the fleet will
be basically ready to scrap. So there's a massive renewal
(22:14):
potential and that should provide a lot of downside production
and that goes also for Drybalk.
Speaker 3 (22:22):
And Frederick.
Speaker 2 (22:23):
Do you have anything to add on that in terms
of what you're optimistic about in twenty twenty six.
Speaker 4 (22:27):
Yeah, I think there's several reasons to be optimistic, especially
on Drybalk. You see several factors in that we follow
use that usually leads the drybook markets that have turned
positive for next year, especially the credit growth in China.
They have actually had a very It's a massive stimulus
if you just exclude a trillion of dollars that was
(22:49):
stimulated in the European and American economies during COVID. If
exclude that, the stimulus in China most recently is pretty
pretty meaningful. Another factor is that has been hurting the
drybook market a bit is that you had an inventory.
Speaker 6 (23:04):
Joining cycle of iron ore in China.
Speaker 4 (23:06):
You see some signs now that that the iron or
consumption is coming up in ports have also naturally also
come up. As a results, inventories are flattening out and
on an absolutely, on an absolute and relative basis, the
inventory levels of iron ore is actually low in China
compared to other commodities, so I think there's a lot
of room to build inventories there in the next year,
especially considering that the dollar as weekend and the iron
(23:31):
ore price is flatish so far this year, so it's
cheaper to buy in iron or now than before. And
another facet of that is is the the global GDP
growth it's been hiked by IMF for next year. That
is highly correlated naturally with with dry book and grab
(23:53):
book trade. And you have the joker on the side
being Simon dou the West African mining project in Guinea,
which I think when it comes online and when it
wraps up, it will sock up a lot of tom miles.
It will go at the cost of some tom iron
ore in other ports, but it's mostly tote mild positive regardless.
(24:13):
So then you have a situation where you don't really
need that big govern the mangals to get meaningful tom mindoth.
So so we are, you know, seeing several reasons to
be positive. And I echo what you said about CMB.
It's a very good drybook exposure, pristine drybook fleet, especially
(24:34):
on the bigger sizes. And apart from that, we you know,
I think Starbuck is a good name. It some very
liquid liquid name to trade, good dividend policy, share barback policy,
and then of course humane airshipping we think is perfectly
positioned to take advantage of this.
Speaker 2 (24:50):
And then on the flip side, Frederick, you can start
off like, so, what's going to be the biggest challenge
in your view in twenty twenty six per shipping?
Speaker 4 (24:59):
I think the biggest channel is obviously geopolitical situations. You
have the Red Sea that has been beneficial on tom
miles for several segments. Doesn't seem like that will resolve
in time soon, but it's a big, big risk. And
another risk is, especially for tankers, would so happened in
at the end of last year when rate's disappointed seasonally
(25:21):
basically due to the arbitrush between the West coming down,
and if something happens that hurts at arbitrash, you get
lower toll miles on the tanker side.
Speaker 2 (25:31):
In Christopher, what do you see the biggest risk for
twenty twenty six for shipping?
Speaker 5 (25:35):
Obviously China is ski here, they're massive importal on all segments.
Speaker 6 (25:43):
But I mean.
Speaker 5 (25:47):
The biggest risk is recession that will hurt all shipping segments.
But as is a downside protection here, especially on the
drive ball side, is that if you look at this
Cimonde project it's sixty five percent fee content on the
(26:08):
iron ore. If you look at domestic production of iron
ore in China, you can sort of estimate that the
fee content is around sixty percent, So it makes sense
for them to import rather than produce domestically. So I
think Driverball could look good even if sort of you
(26:32):
don't get a lot of stimulus in China.
Speaker 2 (26:35):
And are either of you surprise is not more consolidating
going on because you both mentioned like market cap is
an issue for you know, some investors when they're looking
at shipping, and you know, I'm sure that executives are
very shipping companies are well aware of that. So are
you surprised they're not, you know, looking to consolidate.
Speaker 5 (26:54):
I mean, we have seen a big emergery this year
with CMBT and gold Nose. We're now seeing potentially half
they on TORM. We did see Starbucks by an eagle,
so it's not like we're not seeing consolidation. So but
(27:15):
at it depends a sort of when the price is worth,
owners are willing to.
Speaker 6 (27:22):
To sort of to maybe lower their exposure.
Speaker 5 (27:27):
We could see further consolidation, but there's a lot of
ship owners behind these companies, and that's making this M
and A activity a bit difficult from time to time
because you could always say what the company is worth
on a steel basis, and that's not that easy on
other type of companies.
Speaker 4 (27:49):
That yeah, I think, especially in dry book is I
think more The opposite is is room for for more companies.
I think you should have some IPOs actually on the
dry box side, continuing the backdrop and considering you know
that you have room for another big company.
Speaker 2 (28:05):
All right, so we're wrapping up, and it's funny hear
each year's best idea and the upside on that idea.
So christerpher if you want to start us off.
Speaker 5 (28:15):
So we can go for staying now we have target
seventy seven dollars per share. I think it will be
a big trigger with them reaching net cash in Q one,
paying models Stivedan now but lagging Peers a lot trading
(28:36):
at thirty percent discount two pairs in the space. So
so I think that will be an interesting play over
the coming six months.
Speaker 4 (28:45):
All right, Frederick, I would have to go with him
alea huge operation and financial leverage on the cap rids
for next year. So I think, you know, even on
today's rates, you're yealing fifteen to sixteen percent and realized,
which so you don't even need to move to get
the decent return. So if rig really move on, things
really take off. Next there you have a pretty compelling
(29:07):
ecity story.
Speaker 1 (29:08):
All right, I want to thank Frederick and Christopher for
their time and insights. I also want to thank you
for tuning in. If you liked the episode, please subscribe
and leave a review. We've lined up a number of
great guests for the podcast, so please check back to
hear conversations with C suite executives, shippers, regulators, and decision
makers within the freight markets. Also, if you want to
(29:29):
learn more about the freight transportation markets, check out our
work on the Bloomberg terminal at big and on social media.
This is Lee Glasgal signing off and thanks for talking
transports with me. Talk to you next week.
Hi everyone, this is Lee Clasgow and we're Talking Transports.
Welcome to Bloomberg Intelligence Talking Transports podcast. I'm your host,
Lee Clasgal, Senior Freight Transportation Logistics sandal Us at Bloomberg Intelligence,
Bloomberg's end house research arm of almost five hundred analysts
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the Bloomberg terminal, on LinkedIn, or on Twitter at Logistics Lee.
(00:50):
Today's episode is a bonus episode taken from a panel
I moderated during a shipping event Bloomberg hosted on September sixteenth,
in conjunction with London International Ship Week. The panel consisted
of equity research analysts Frederick Didwatt from Friendly Securities and
Christopher Bartski from Arctic Securities. You will hear us discuss
(01:10):
the state and outlook for the liner, tanker and dryboat markets,
as well as their favorite names within the space. Hope
you enjoyed these conversations as much as I did.
Speaker 2 (01:21):
All right, good afternoon, Thanks for sticking around. This is
the equity analyst panel. You may not know, but I'm
Lee Clascow, Bloomberg Intelligence senior transportation logistics analysts. In to
my left we have Frederick Dibwad excuse me, an equity
research analyst at Friendly Securities, and then to his left
(01:43):
is Christopher bart Ski, an equity analyst at Arctic Security.
Speaker 3 (01:47):
So thank you very much for joining us, gentlemen.
Speaker 2 (01:50):
We talked about a lot of different sub segments within
the shipping markets, whether it's dryball, tankers, liners, from an
equity analysts standpoint, Frederick, once you start off, what is
the kind of the state of the industry from your perspective?
Speaker 4 (02:07):
You know, since you know, since the start of the year,
we had some headwinds on the entire most of the
shipping segments, but then we have Liberation Day and performance
on the shipping equity so that has been to be honest,
very there has been stellar since the Liberation Day and
forefronted by tankers have been really good. Containers have performed well,
drivable cast perform well, and the same can be sailable
(02:29):
but for the LPG guys as well. So I think
the state in the market is very good. Obviously, we
have a big order book in a lot of the segments,
which over time may pressure the supply demand balance, but overall,
I think shipping segment looks looks pretty good.
Speaker 2 (02:45):
Christopher, what are you looking at when when you're for
your outlook, you know which sub segment is better positioned
relative to the others.
Speaker 5 (02:53):
If we do just do an easy approach to start with,
I think one should look at the supplies side of
the equation. So order book is the easiest both to
start looking at, and then you have drible cat eleven
percent or the book the fleet trade show tankers at
fifteen percent, and then we have had quite massive ordering
(03:15):
among other sub segments.
Speaker 6 (03:18):
So I mean LNG and the.
Speaker 5 (03:21):
Order book there is forty five percent, car carriers mid thirties.
Then you have the VLGCS is around thirty percent, and
then containers which is now at thirty percent. Again, so
if you just look at where we're going to have
maybe struggles with over capacity over the coming years, I'm
(03:42):
guessing it will not be on the tankers and dribal style,
but the odor segments I'm a bit more skeptical about.
Speaker 2 (03:51):
In howbould you, fred do you have a differing opinion
or mostly in line?
Speaker 4 (03:56):
Yeah, you know it's it's mostly in line, I think,
you know, looking at space car carriers and containers, the
order book is is massive. Containers are they just continue
ordering vessels? Order book is actually the highest that it
has ever been in TU terms. Twenty twenty eight would
be the highest ever t US delivered. And you know,
echo most what Christophers say. And from a supply side
(04:19):
point of view, it definitely looks it looks very very
enticing on the bulker and the tanker side.
Speaker 2 (04:25):
And so, Frederick, what are your some of your favorite
ideas right now in terms of stock ideas that you're
talking to your clients about.
Speaker 4 (04:32):
Yeah, yeah, so I talk a lot of tankers. I
took a lot of bulkers. You can start with the
tanker side. Obviously, the VLCC trade is what's looking the
best at the moment. On the tanker side, you're the
top of the hierarchy. That's the last remaining piece of
the puzzle that hasn't really fired up on all cylinders
yet and now you're finally seeing it with a lot
(04:55):
of opeic plus controversals finally hitting the markets. We have
personality hitting them hitting the market. Then you are actually
at that at the seasonal slump. But field zer rates
are actually closing in one hundred thousand dollars a day
now and with more volumes the outlook of more volume
coming in the next couple of months, I think, you know,
the risky world is pretty good, and geopolitically as well,
(05:16):
you potentially have the you know, with say, for instance,
if Russia exports less soil, that would or may push
volumes over to the vlccs from the from the serious
and affrom acxsis. So I think you know, from our
top idea point of view, that's the vl ccs you
want to own in the tanker space at the moment.
Speaker 3 (05:36):
Can you name names.
Speaker 4 (05:38):
The front line dhd okayis. I think all those names
are are really attractive. And yeah, even after the recent
share rallies and share pricess dividends is really really compelling.
Still you know what you know, if you say the
rates stay in the mid sixties, you get fifteen percent
divident across the board.
Speaker 6 (05:57):
So I think that's pretty good.
Speaker 3 (05:59):
And how about you, what are your favorite names in
the space.
Speaker 6 (06:04):
Like the VS as well.
Speaker 5 (06:07):
But what I'm where I maybe differ a bit from
Frelic is that I believe that product rates will sort of.
Speaker 6 (06:16):
Benefit from a strong crude market.
Speaker 5 (06:19):
So what is typical the trade now among many is
that you go long crude and then you're maybe short product.
But if you look at the product order book, it's
nineteen percent and crude is twelve. But the l R
twos that's just basically an apromax with coating. So if
(06:39):
those vessels end up in the crew trade, then you're
suddenly left with the product order book to fleet ratio
of eleven percent, and that's suddenly not that demanding. And
the older sort of best idea we have is CMBT.
It's fifty book exposure, it's thirty percent tank or exposure.
(07:04):
It's an mv net asset value of four billion trading
at the thirty percent discount, So you get sort of
a lot of or quite decent entry points. I mean,
if you look at the crude names now, they're trading
at twenty percent premium, and then you also get a
(07:25):
lot of bank for the book through sixty seven percent NETALTV.
What many of these listed names have spent a lot
of time doing with years is not paying dividends. They
have reduced steps. I mean, you talk to Robot previously
hiss net cash in December, so that is sort of
(07:51):
good from playing the cycle from a long term perspective.
But if you're a shareholder or investor that can go
in and out so in a day of too, then
you could ease little lot of see the usoil of
having quite a lot of leverage, and that's what you're
getting in CMBT.
Speaker 2 (08:09):
You guys both you know, spend a lot of your
time talking to the buyside and perspective investors, investors that
are interested in shipping. Is it more institutional long money?
Is it hedge funds who likes to invest in shipping
from an equity standpoint?
Speaker 4 (08:27):
Yeah, I think that, you know, following the shipping booll
cycle you have now for the past four or five years,
the investor base have increased. So we talked to all
different topic clients without to family officers, institutions, hedge funds.
I think everyone is interested in shipping, and especially now
with the geopolitical backdrop with trade, with tariffs, with everything
that's going on, Shipping is in the middle of everything,
(08:48):
and slide change in tariffs impacts could impact several chipping segments.
Speaker 5 (08:54):
Right, So I think interest is really really high and Christopher,
do you have a interest? Is good but also sort
of echoing what you were saying earlier, Hammers, for some funds,
the market cap is sort of it's still too small,
(09:15):
still too little liquidity. So I think sort of interest
would increase. Also further if with sort of further m
and a activity we're seeing potentially Halffney on torn now
that would create the five point five billion dollar market
cap tanker company. So I think these type of events
(09:39):
would be good for the industry and interest.
Speaker 6 (09:42):
Right.
Speaker 2 (09:43):
So, you know, from my vantage point, shipping is a
pretty commoditized industry for the most part. So when you're
trying to evaluate stocks within a sub segment that you like,
how do different do you differentiate the stocks?
Speaker 3 (09:57):
Start with Efrederick.
Speaker 4 (09:58):
Yeah, So first of all, you you know, what is
your view on the market, right, that's the basis of everything.
And if you like the market, we usually differentiate the
stocks between you know, the fleet profile, that's one thing.
Age of the fleet, that's another factor. Do they have
a big SPS cycle coming up for instance, that can
you know, increase capex and reduce learning the temporarily. But
(10:20):
I think the most important thing that we have seen
during the past years in shipping is that it's cyclical
by nature, and as an investor, you want your money
back while the times are good, So high paying dividend
stocks is usually rewarded by higher evaluation.
Speaker 3 (10:36):
In Christopher, do.
Speaker 2 (10:37):
You how do you kind of evaluate names within a
sub segment.
Speaker 5 (10:42):
I think it's the same approach, and what we have
seen in recent years is that companies that have a
high distribution policy pay a lot of the EPs and dividends.
They tend to trade at premium. You see that now
in the tanker space. But that could also create a
(11:05):
bit of interesting situations like staying at least in our space,
that's the most discounted name and they have the youngest fleet.
Speaker 6 (11:16):
They are now net cash in at.
Speaker 5 (11:19):
Least on our figures in Q one and with no
material cappex apart from special surveys. That should be a
catalyst for an update the distribution polls.
Speaker 2 (11:33):
Here and you know we heard from the credit panel Earlier,
they were more focused on the liner market within your coverage.
You know, how do you view the container and liner
market from an equity standpoint, Christopher, if you want to
lead off.
Speaker 5 (11:51):
I think it's a bit difficult with the container market
now because the liners they seem to sort of this
agree with all the analysts sort of market experts out there,
because they are.
Speaker 6 (12:05):
In the market and shortering.
Speaker 5 (12:09):
Tonnage at sort of all time high levels and box
rates are falling month by month. So there's a huge
disconnect now between what the liners are willing to pay
and what they are getting paid.
Speaker 6 (12:24):
Basically, so.
Speaker 5 (12:28):
I have a cell recommendation on the liner company I cover,
but hold on the tonnage provider. And that's basically because
I see a lot of earnings risk on the liners.
Speaker 6 (12:42):
But for the tonnage providers, they are I mean they're.
Speaker 5 (12:46):
Trading more or less at the discounted value of the
EBITA backlog plus scrap. I mean, I mean there's a
lot of optionality value there and I don't see sort
of any real risk there either.
Speaker 3 (12:59):
I'm sorry, we're are some of the talentge providers.
Speaker 5 (13:02):
I mean in or slow, it's NPC container ships that's
most relevant.
Speaker 4 (13:07):
Y gotcha, Yeah, I can just echo what you say
on the liner side. You are now the the European
contract renegotiation period is approaching quickly. You have seen raids
coming down. I think there's a there's an obvious risk
to estimate in heading into next year. And if you
look at the name like like MRSK for instance, like
this year is training at three point five times ev
(13:28):
t bitar might sound cheap, but if you just extract,
do some calculations on what are the rates now, what
would you likely recontract those rates app for into next year?
And on our estimates you do go from a nine
billion libitar this year to five billion next year and
then that's seven times dbitar. Right, So I'm just like Christopher,
(13:48):
I have a Cellar recommendation, and I believe I believe
MURSK is actually screening as a very good short at
the moment due to that because it's screening cheap today
and they have the buyback program which creates a bit
but over time, I think gravity.
Speaker 6 (14:01):
Will work on the stock. Is a good point.
Speaker 5 (14:04):
I think many investors get lost in the ed e
bit tum multiples there. But if you look at price
to earnings we're at like around fifteen times or current
air So I don't find that really really attractive at
least given backdrop.
Speaker 3 (14:24):
And you do you either of you have sales and
anything else that you under your under your coverage.
Speaker 4 (14:30):
I have a Sealon car carriers, so that's more of
the same. Actually, you have this huge order book I
think now just about thirty percent. You will see high
fleet growth this year, next year and twenty twenty seven.
You have seen export of cars basically flattening out in Korea, Japan, Germany.
(14:51):
You still have growth in China, but you have seen
several countries, with the Mexico being the most recentable one,
increasing their tariffs on Chinese bold cars. And I think
part of the reason why that Chinese exports have been
growing much more on the relative compared to Japan, Korea
and germanists due to the fact that they have most
(15:11):
likely seen what's coming on the tariffs. You know, Mexico
is one of the single biggest importers of Chinese cars,
mostly ice cars actually not evs. But so I think
that you know, with those tariffs now coming into the plane,
the next couple of couple of months and quarters you
will see Chinese exports coming down as well because you
don't have the sales growth on the car side globally
(15:35):
to support as continued high growth of exports. So I
think the Chinese have actually just been stopping up inventories
across several big countries in the world and within the terraffs.
Speaker 2 (15:48):
In the tariffs the US arrets, have they impacted that
industry as well.
Speaker 4 (15:52):
Yeah, but that's not on the Chinese side. The US
practically doesn't import Chinese cars, but it's obvious impact on
Japanese Koreen and the German cars. So I think that
if you look at the backlog of the of the
companies we cover, Hook and the Valenius, you have a
sale on sell on both of them. It's just you
have a contract backlog with the fixed price per vehicle
(16:14):
that you transport, but the volume is variable. So that's
our take that we relead the volume will be lower,
so you don't get one hundred percent utilization of your contract.
And that's where we differ from from most of the consensus.
But as the consensus is actually a whole recommendation now
across that across that segments.
Speaker 3 (16:32):
Okay and Christopher within your coverage.
Speaker 2 (16:35):
I guess the more protectionist policies coming out of the US,
what companies have been impacted the most, and in which
are you feel an't going to feel the brand going forward?
In terms of tariffs, Yeah, teriffs.
Speaker 5 (16:51):
It's obviously containers, which is most directly are most directly exposed.
But could see an interesting situation I had with the
USDRS which are soon coming into place, could easily create
a tier one tier two market. And I mean at
(17:12):
first it looked really bad for shipping, but then it
has been a lot of exemptions and sort of US
understood that there needs to be a lot of exemptions
because they are suddenly net exporkers of molecules, so it
wouldn't make sense to sort of impose a lot of
(17:32):
tariffs on the commodities that they are selling. But that
is an uncertainty ahead on how that's going to play out.
Speaker 4 (17:45):
Yeah, I think you're actually starting to see that now,
especially on the VGC side. See the spread between raised
and East and West are actually widened lately because the
Chinese operates owned and operated Tonaea balaced into the Middle East.
Speaker 5 (17:57):
So it's there are fifty blgcs that are owned by
Chinese sentities and they will end up getting these port fits.
So and that represents two and a half percent of
the BLGC fits.
Speaker 6 (18:12):
So naturally you will get.
Speaker 5 (18:16):
I mean, over time, these two markets correlate very well,
and we'll probably do so. But you will probably get
some pockets from time to time where Middle East loadings
are at quite a discount to us.
Speaker 2 (18:30):
So I can't talk shipping without talking about emissions. So
you know, in your coverage universe, how do you think
the road to you know, twenty fifty zero emissions is
going to be met from your vantage point?
Speaker 3 (18:44):
If Frederick, if you want to start us off at that.
Speaker 4 (18:47):
Yeah, you know, it's a different, difficult question. But I
think that you will see several You will need to
have a wide cooperation between several institutions. Basically you will
need to get new serial mission fuels into the fleet,
but you also need to have bunkering and availability of that.
And if you take ammonia as an example, the energy
(19:09):
density of an ammonia molecules are much much lower than
bunkering oil. So if you just bunker up with ammonia
you can you can't sail as long as you can
with with with the regular bunkering, right, so you need
to have newer hubs, for example at the Cape or
a Namibia in Africa to serve that as a middle
middle bunkering vantage point, which you don't have today. But
(19:32):
I think that's part of it, and still is someone
uncertain dias on what fuel is going to be be
the future.
Speaker 3 (19:40):
Fool Christopher, do you do you have any thoughts on that?
Speaker 2 (19:44):
And also just you know, as a follow up, do
you think those goals are attainable?
Speaker 5 (19:51):
It doesn't seem like it. And the first thing or
the big boat upcoming is m a PC and let's
see what outcome there is. But it's difficult, right because
sixty two percent of all vessels being built now are
(20:13):
Chinese and energy seems like a decent solution at least
in sort of medium term. But if you opt for
LERG bunkering or dual fool engines, let's say on the
LCC with where many of the loadings are actually out
(20:36):
of the US, then if you're have a Chinese tonnachers
only being taxed with three million dollars per port visit
just to bunker. So I think there's a lot of
uncertainty around this and I mean you can just look
at the listed owners. Very few there to do anything
(20:58):
now because there's so much much Johnston.
Speaker 4 (21:00):
To Ye and vessels should operate for twenty twenty five years, right,
and twenty five years from a twenty fifty.
Speaker 5 (21:07):
So and our clients they care about next twelve months.
So it's not something I spent a lot of time
on really.
Speaker 2 (21:16):
So twenty twenty five is almost done. Looking into twenty
twenty six. You know, Christopher, what are you most optimistic
about as it relates to shipping in your universe?
Speaker 5 (21:29):
It's triable and tankers. I think we went through sort
of supply the mountain there. But it's also important to
sort of talk about the age profile of especially the
tanker fleet, which just extremely unique. The average age of
(21:51):
the fleet is fourteen years. It's the highest since two thousand.
If you just look at the number of vessels that
are above twenty years of age, we're at twenty percent
now and just factoring in the order book through twenty
twenty eight, you're about one thirds of the fleet will
be basically ready to scrap. So there's a massive renewal
(22:14):
potential and that should provide a lot of downside production
and that goes also for Drybalk.
Speaker 3 (22:22):
And Frederick.
Speaker 2 (22:23):
Do you have anything to add on that in terms
of what you're optimistic about in twenty twenty six.
Speaker 4 (22:27):
Yeah, I think there's several reasons to be optimistic, especially
on Drybalk. You see several factors in that we follow
use that usually leads the drybook markets that have turned
positive for next year, especially the credit growth in China.
They have actually had a very It's a massive stimulus
if you just exclude a trillion of dollars that was
(22:49):
stimulated in the European and American economies during COVID. If
exclude that, the stimulus in China most recently is pretty
pretty meaningful. Another factor is that has been hurting the
drybook market a bit is that you had an inventory.
Speaker 6 (23:04):
Joining cycle of iron ore in China.
Speaker 4 (23:06):
You see some signs now that that the iron or
consumption is coming up in ports have also naturally also
come up. As a results, inventories are flattening out and
on an absolutely, on an absolute and relative basis, the
inventory levels of iron ore is actually low in China
compared to other commodities, so I think there's a lot
of room to build inventories there in the next year,
especially considering that the dollar as weekend and the iron
(23:31):
ore price is flatish so far this year, so it's
cheaper to buy in iron or now than before. And
another facet of that is is the the global GDP
growth it's been hiked by IMF for next year. That
is highly correlated naturally with with dry book and grab
(23:53):
book trade. And you have the joker on the side
being Simon dou the West African mining project in Guinea,
which I think when it comes online and when it
wraps up, it will sock up a lot of tom miles.
It will go at the cost of some tom iron
ore in other ports, but it's mostly tote mild positive regardless.
(24:13):
So then you have a situation where you don't really
need that big govern the mangals to get meaningful tom mindoth.
So so we are, you know, seeing several reasons to
be positive. And I echo what you said about CMB.
It's a very good drybook exposure, pristine drybook fleet, especially
(24:34):
on the bigger sizes. And apart from that, we you know,
I think Starbuck is a good name. It some very
liquid liquid name to trade, good dividend policy, share barback policy,
and then of course humane airshipping we think is perfectly
positioned to take advantage of this.
Speaker 2 (24:50):
And then on the flip side, Frederick, you can start
off like, so, what's going to be the biggest challenge
in your view in twenty twenty six per shipping?
Speaker 4 (24:59):
I think the biggest channel is obviously geopolitical situations. You
have the Red Sea that has been beneficial on tom
miles for several segments. Doesn't seem like that will resolve
in time soon, but it's a big, big risk. And
another risk is, especially for tankers, would so happened in
at the end of last year when rate's disappointed seasonally
(25:21):
basically due to the arbitrush between the West coming down,
and if something happens that hurts at arbitrash, you get
lower toll miles on the tanker side.
Speaker 2 (25:31):
In Christopher, what do you see the biggest risk for
twenty twenty six for shipping?
Speaker 5 (25:35):
Obviously China is ski here, they're massive importal on all segments.
Speaker 6 (25:43):
But I mean.
Speaker 5 (25:47):
The biggest risk is recession that will hurt all shipping segments.
But as is a downside protection here, especially on the
drive ball side, is that if you look at this
Cimonde project it's sixty five percent fee content on the
(26:08):
iron ore. If you look at domestic production of iron
ore in China, you can sort of estimate that the
fee content is around sixty percent, So it makes sense
for them to import rather than produce domestically. So I
think Driverball could look good even if sort of you
(26:32):
don't get a lot of stimulus in China.
Speaker 2 (26:35):
And are either of you surprise is not more consolidating
going on because you both mentioned like market cap is
an issue for you know, some investors when they're looking
at shipping, and you know, I'm sure that executives are
very shipping companies are well aware of that. So are
you surprised they're not, you know, looking to consolidate.
Speaker 5 (26:54):
I mean, we have seen a big emergery this year
with CMBT and gold Nose. We're now seeing potentially half
they on TORM. We did see Starbucks by an eagle,
so it's not like we're not seeing consolidation. So but
(27:15):
at it depends a sort of when the price is worth,
owners are willing to.
Speaker 6 (27:22):
To sort of to maybe lower their exposure.
Speaker 5 (27:27):
We could see further consolidation, but there's a lot of
ship owners behind these companies, and that's making this M
and A activity a bit difficult from time to time
because you could always say what the company is worth
on a steel basis, and that's not that easy on
other type of companies.
Speaker 4 (27:49):
That yeah, I think, especially in dry book is I
think more The opposite is is room for for more companies.
I think you should have some IPOs actually on the
dry box side, continuing the backdrop and considering you know
that you have room for another big company.
Speaker 2 (28:05):
All right, so we're wrapping up, and it's funny hear
each year's best idea and the upside on that idea.
So christerpher if you want to start us off.
Speaker 5 (28:15):
So we can go for staying now we have target
seventy seven dollars per share. I think it will be
a big trigger with them reaching net cash in Q one,
paying models Stivedan now but lagging Peers a lot trading
(28:36):
at thirty percent discount two pairs in the space. So
so I think that will be an interesting play over
the coming six months.
Speaker 4 (28:45):
All right, Frederick, I would have to go with him
alea huge operation and financial leverage on the cap rids
for next year. So I think, you know, even on
today's rates, you're yealing fifteen to sixteen percent and realized,
which so you don't even need to move to get
the decent return. So if rig really move on, things
really take off. Next there you have a pretty compelling
(29:07):
ecity story.
Speaker 1 (29:08):
All right, I want to thank Frederick and Christopher for
their time and insights. I also want to thank you
for tuning in. If you liked the episode, please subscribe
and leave a review. We've lined up a number of
great guests for the podcast, so please check back to
hear conversations with C suite executives, shippers, regulators, and decision
makers within the freight markets. Also, if you want to
(29:29):
learn more about the freight transportation markets, check out our
work on the Bloomberg terminal at big and on social media.
This is Lee Glasgal signing off and thanks for talking
transports with me. Talk to you next week.
Host
Lee Klaskow
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Ruthie's Table 4
For more than 30 years The River Cafe in London, has been the home-from-home of artists, architects, designers, actors, collectors, writers, activists, and politicians. Michael Caine, Glenn Close, JJ Abrams, Steve McQueen, Victoria and David Beckham, and Lily Allen, are just some of the people who love to call The River Cafe home. On River Cafe Table 4, Rogers sits down with her customers—who have become friends—to talk about food memories. Table 4 explores how food impacts every aspect of our lives. “Foods is politics, food is cultural, food is how you express love, food is about your heritage, it defines who you and who you want to be,” says Rogers. Each week, Rogers invites her guest to reminisce about family suppers and first dates, what they cook, how they eat when performing, the restaurants they choose, and what food they seek when they need comfort. And to punctuate each episode of Table 4, guests such as Ralph Fiennes, Emily Blunt, and Alfonso Cuarón, read their favourite recipe from one of the best-selling River Cafe cookbooks. Table 4 itself, is situated near The River Cafe’s open kitchen, close to the bright pink wood-fired oven and next to the glossy yellow pass, where Ruthie oversees the restaurant. You are invited to take a seat at this intimate table and join the conversation. For more information, recipes, and ingredients, go to https://shoptherivercafe.co.uk/ Web: https://rivercafe.co.uk/ Instagram: www.instagram.com/therivercafelondon/ Facebook: https://en-gb.facebook.com/therivercafelondon/ For more podcasts from iHeartRadio, visit the iheartradio app, apple podcasts, or wherever you listen to your favorite shows. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com
The Joe Rogan Experience
The official podcast of comedian Joe Rogan.