EP11: The Science Behind Veery Birds and Hurricane Season Intensity with Christopher Heckscher

Christopher Heckscher, a professor of environmental science, discusses his research on the Vireo bird and its correlation to hurricane seasons. He explains that the Vireo bird is a neotropical migrant that migrates between North and South America twice a year. He has been studying the bird's behavior and breeding patterns for over 26 years. 

Episode Transcript

(00:00):
All right.
Well, welcome, Christopher.
Thank you for being on the show today.
And we're just going to, you know, diveright into it.
So today we have Christopher, is itHeckscher?
I want to pronounce that right.
Yeah, you did Heckscher.
Good job.
Heckscher.
Okay.
And Christopher is a, well, I'll let yougo ahead and describe your, your

(00:24):
background.
Well, currently I'm a professor ofenvironmental science at Delaware State
University.
in Dover, Delaware.
Background, basically I grew up inPennsylvania, went to my undergraduate
college was Colorado State University inFort Collins.
After graduating from there, I worked fora little while for the Forest Service in

(00:44):
California, and then ended up back eastworking for the State of Delaware and the
Nature Conservancy, and then decided to gofor a graduate degree.
So I got both my master's degree and PhDat University of Delaware.
where I studied ornithology.
My, my dream was to be a big gamebiologist.

(01:05):
That's why I went out to Colorado.
Somehow I ended up with birds.
my father was an avid birder.
So he introduced me to birding when I wasseven years old, which obviously had a
major impact on my life.
Really.
I'm still an avid birder and now I'm anornithologist.
So, that's a pretty important.
piece of my background.

(01:26):
I did work with birds for the ForestService in California.
So that's kind of what got me intoornithology, you know, as something to do
for a profession.
But yeah, so now I study birds and here Iam.
Awesome.
Awesome.
Yeah, I'm actually in a very, I think justthree weeks ago here in Morro Bay,

(01:48):
California, I'm visiting real quick.
There's a
I think about 800 birders rolled into townlast month.
And there's quite a large amount ofdifferent species and you know, the
migratory pattern right now.
So they're, they're all out there, butit's yeah, you drive by the estuary and
it's, it's packed with, you know, cranesand, and all sorts of other species.

(02:11):
And of course they have the peregrinefalcons here.
Quite a prominent bird.
And then the, the plover, it's somethingplover, I believe.
the little ones that skid around on the,on the beach.
yeah, there's a few different species.
So, right, right.
Yeah.
No, it's just, it's always been amazing.
You know, I was raised, my grandparentsweren't technical birders, but we were

(02:33):
always interested in the wildlife,especially here on the central coast in
California.
It's such a unique, space.
And actually yesterday we went up to seethe elephant seals.
who have their main migratory patternjust, you know, about 35 minutes from
here.
And it's, it's mass chaos.
You know, it's the pups, the pups arebeing born.

(02:53):
Some of the males are still fighting formating rights.
The moms are trying to protect the pups.
Quite interesting though, I was lookingfor an El Nino connection there yesterday
and they said that it doesn't impact themigratory pattern, but they're seeing an
absolute decimation of the pup populationthis year.
So because of the extreme high tides thisyear and the some of the bigger storm

(03:19):
patterns, it grabs the tides, grab thepups and they don't have any ability to
swim in their first weeks or month.
And so they're looking at massive amountsand they're actually doing a luckily here.
It's really unique that they have so manyvolunteers with the retired population
here on the coast.
So they're doing large consensus.

(03:40):
And they're tracking how many pups are atthe beginning of the season and then, you
know, a couple of weeks in and they'redoing a consensus every couple of weeks to
see how many pups actually they startedwith and how many will make it through
this season, but they're expecting and sofar they're seeing massive amounts of
reduced pups from these tides, which isjust, you know, quite fascinating because

(04:04):
there is some.
From my understanding with with animalpopulations, there is a lot of kind of
chaos mathematics, right?
It's not always doom and gloom of theclimate, but it could be.
But a lot of times there just could beyears where they get cold by 80%.
But then 10, 15 years later, they're backstronger than ever.
And it just kind of sometimes works likethat.

(04:25):
But maybe you can speak more to thatlater.
But originally, I found you.
through just kind of looking at, you know,I'm very interested in different animals
and the way that they adapt to weather andclimate patterns and things like that.
And that's how I came across some of yourresearch.
And this is a very, from my understanding,longstanding research data set that you've

(04:51):
been doing.
And so, you know, why don't you tell usabout the bird, the, you know, how it all
got started and just give us the wholespiel.
Yeah, so the bird I study is the Viri.
It's a medium -sized, I guess, songbird,bird that sings.
A little bit smaller than a robin.

(05:12):
So some of your audience might be familiarwith what a robin looks like.
So it's a little bit smaller, but they'revery secretive and they live in forests.
They are what we call neotropicalmigrants.
So they migrate between the neotropicalregion, North America and South America.
And they do that, you know, every year.
So every fall they migrate down from NorthAmerica to South America.

(05:36):
And then in the spring they come back tobreed.
You know, it's really, it's amazingbecause they make that 10 ,000 mile round
trip twice a year.
And when they get to North America, theytypically only bring off about four young,
which is head scratching.
You'd think, man, it'd just be worth it tostay down in South America and not have to

(05:57):
worry about us up here.
But it's amazing that, you know,
They and many other migrants have evolvedto do that over time.
So this bird will arrive in Delaware,Northern North America, late April, early
May, set up territories in the forests,raise their young.

(06:23):
After they raise their young, they areunder extreme pressure now to get back
down to South America.
They have to molt first.
which usually takes a few weeks.
So what they do is they just replacenearly all their feathers once a year
after they breed.
And then they have to prepare formigration by building up enough fat

(06:45):
storage to get them back down to SouthAmerica.
So their entire annual cycle is justintense.
Gotta get to one place, move on to thenext, get back to the other.
So they're under a lot of pressure in thatregard.
which really makes the whole phenomenoneven more amazing that it's ended up, you

(07:06):
know, so many birds that will do all thisjust to come up here and bring off some
young.
But yeah, that pressure that they're underto get back down to South America has a
lot to do with the research that I've beendoing.
So each May I go out and I've been doingit.

(07:27):
This coming year, I think will be my 26th.
consecutive year doing this in Delaware.
So I go out in the woods now, you know,lately with my students, we go out in the
woods, we set up nets in the woods, wecatch as many veris as we can.
Every time we catch one, we will put aUSGS numbered band on its leg.

(07:49):
It's a unique number.
It's like a serial number.
So every individual gets a differentnumber.
That way, if we catch it later in the yearor someone else, maybe even in South
America catches it.
They have a history of that bird.
They know exactly where it came from.
So that's a really rich data set.
The other thing we do is we color band thebirds so that we can identify them in the

(08:09):
field with our binoculars without havingto catch them.
So every bird gets a unique number andthen also a unique set of bands on its
legs that are different colors.
And then, yeah, that way we can trackindividuals, which is where, where my
research really comes in.
I'm very interested in what.
different individuals do.
So what do males do differently thanfemales?

(08:30):
What do first one -year -old birds dodifferently than like five -year -old
birds?
So we can actually track that in our dataset.
And that's what makes a long -term dataset so valuable because you can see
changes over time.
And actually how you, you just alluded tothis fact that, you know, populations
change all the time.
They go up and down, they go throughperiods of low productivity and low

(08:53):
numbers, and then they'll bounce back.
That's just kind of the natural cycle ofthings.
And you don't really get a good handle onthat if you don't have a long -term data
set.
So my data set is really valuable.
There aren't a lot of, at least in theEastern United States, there aren't a lot
of ornithologists that are payingparticular attention to one species and

(09:17):
have tracked them for that long of aperiod of time.
There are a few studies, but it's not thatcommon.
So the data set that I have is really, isreally...
valuable in that regard.
Yeah, the species also has been showingsome pretty steep declines over the last
few decades.
So that makes something like this data seteven more valuable.

(09:39):
Very interesting.
And so our other ornithologists, I mean,as one little side question, our other
ornithologists starting to kind of look athow you've been researching and start to
adopt that a little bit of that longerterm focus on a single species.
I think most ornithologists recognize thevalue of a long -term data set.

(10:02):
A lot of the ornithological research hasshifted to multi -species analyses.
So, one of the reasons that there aren't alot of single -species studies is because,
I don't know, maybe 20, 30 years ago,there was kind of a call to start looking
at groups of species, not just singlespecies, with the idea that, you know, we
don't have a lot of time.

(10:23):
for a lot of these species because theyare declining.
So we need to kind of look at a lot ofspecies at once and try to figure out the
causes of decline.
But I think there is a shift kind of goingon now back towards single species studies
because you really can find out somethingabout one species that maybe doesn't apply
to all the different species, maybe onlysome of them, if you're looking at maybe

(10:46):
just one species.
So I don't know if I said that exactly ina clear way, but.
I think there has been kind of this startof a shift back towards single species.
I'm not going to say it's because of me,but in general, you're seeing more papers
now that might be focusing on singlespecies.
One of the major changes in ornithologythat has just happened recently that I

(11:11):
immediately took advantage of was beingable to track individuals throughout their
annual cycle.
So for...
for their entire year, you can now put adevice on a bird, a single songbird, and
then retrieve that device later on, maybethe next year after it comes back from a

(11:31):
migratory journey, and then see where thebird has been.
And I think that's one reason why you'restarting to see more folks get interested
in single -species studies again.
Okay, that's interesting, because that'sactually where I was going next a little
bit before we get into the real juicy partof this, which is what your data actually
shows.
But yeah, it's so there is that there iskind of a transformation happening and

(11:54):
just in terms of tracking technology.
And so with that example, are you sayingthat, but you still have to recover that
device in order to get the data off of it?
Is it being stored locally or is theredevices that are actually transmitting
real time these days for bird purposes?
So the technology is not there yet for thetypes of birds that I study, the

(12:16):
songbirds.
You know, they weigh 25, maybe even
10 grams up to larger too.
But we can't put a device on a bird.
The general rule is you don't put a devicethat's more than 3 % of its body weight.
So the technology is really not there yetto transfer, to transmit real -time data.

(12:38):
It's coming quick though.
I think they're down to, they can get themon birds that are 35, 40 grams now.
Those devices tend to be super expensivebecause it's new technology.
But I anticipate, you know, in the nextfive or 10 years, you're going to see
those, that costs come down and you'regoing to see a lot of us ornithologists
starting to do that with the smallersongbirds.

(12:58):
Wow.
That's going to be really, reallyinteresting to see what comes of that.
yeah.
I'm excited.
To answer your question.
Yeah.
The devices I use, I got to retrieve itfrom the bird.
So I put it on the bird in say May, 2023,then go out there in May, 2024, find the
exact same bird, have to catch that bird,which sometimes is very difficult.

(13:19):
take that device off the bird and thendownload the data.
And then a lot of times the unit hasfailed in the interim.
So the technology isn't perfect and it canbe pricey, but it's way, you know, 10
years ago, 15 years ago, rather, you know,this wasn't, this was just a pipe dream.
So we're all of us that are doing this arekind of on the cutting edge.

(13:40):
of this new tracking technology.
Right.
It's like opening a Christmas gift andfinding out if you got coal or not.
That is exactly right.
I bet it's quite exciting.
Well, when you get it, it is, but man, itis really difficult when you track down a
bird.
It might take you four or five days to getthem in your net.
You finally get it out of the net, youtake the device off and then I'd say more

(14:05):
times than not, there's no data on it.
And it's just so deflating when thathappens.
But when you get the data, it's just likethe best thing in the world.
I bet.
I bet.
Well, speaking of the data, what is superunique about your data set and your
research has been the correlation thatyou're finding to specific weather

(14:25):
patterns and the bird behavior.
And so, you know, why don't we jump intothat and just kind of tell us, you know,
the story of what you've found so far.
Yeah, so I kind of have to go back alittle bit in time.
So I published a paper in 2017, I think itwas.

(14:47):
One of the questions I had was, so thiswhole dynamic where you have a bird that
has a very short amount of time to find amate, nest, lay eggs, raise them to
independence, raise the young toindependence, then molt and migrate, all
that pressure on the bird.

(15:07):
creates a situation where the bird's undera lot of pressure to get back down to
South America.
So one of the questions I had was knowingthat from a prior study, I think was done
primarily by, or was done by BridgetStutchbury at York University, she found

(15:31):
that wood thrushes, which are another typeof thrush like the Viri, a little bit
larger,
more common.
She found that the birds that nestedearlier left on migration earlier.
So they were able to actually take off onmigration earlier.
Later birds left later.
Turned out that they didn't arrive at anydifferent time on the wintering grounds,

(15:54):
which is interesting in and of itself.
But the idea that the birds that fledgedyoung, brought off young earlier, could
then migrate earlier,
I had that knowledge going into this stageof the study that kind of led off into
this trajectory regarding hurricanes.

(16:15):
So I wanted to see now that I could trackthese individual birds, if the birds that
nested later in the year, later in thesummer, or took longer to bring off their
young is probably the better way to putit.
Whether or not they, whether there was adisadvantage or a cost,

(16:36):
to nesting later in the summer.
So in other words, a viree that startsnesting in May may lose its nest three or
four times to predators maybe.
If it doesn't bring off young, it's gonnakeep trying to do so.
I mean, that's the only reason it's here,right?
So, you know, evolution has forced thebird into this sort of situation where

(16:59):
it's gotta do everything it can toreproduce successfully.
So, but then there's a limit because it'sgot to also molt and migrate on time.
So some birds will be successful early on,other birds later in the year will finally
bring off their young and then they get toprepare for migration.
So my initial question was, were the birdsthat were nesting late or were

(17:23):
unsuccessful earlier in the year andcontinued to try to nest through the
summer, were those birds at adisadvantage, in other words, getting to
South America later?
than the birds that brought off youngearlier.
So that was kind of where I started out onall this part of my research, trying to
figure out if females in particularincurred a cost by pushing their fledgling

(17:49):
date, raising young later and later intothe summer.
The ones that nest early and aresuccessful can prepare whenever they want
for migration, probably as soon as they'redone nesting.
But because these birds...
are under such a time constraint, they canonly bring off one successful nest a year.
So that was the question I was trying toanswer early on.

(18:09):
And by putting the tracking devices onthese female V -Rays and male V -Rays, I
discovered that the females that push thelimit on how late they would nest actually
did depart later.
and entered South America, their winteringgrounds later.

(18:29):
So I determined that there actually was acost to not bringing off young early in
the year, which has implications forthings like, from a conservation
perspective, if human disturbance is oneof the reasons a nest could fail, if we go
into a forest and there's a lot ofactivity and the birds aren't able to
bring off the young as quickly.

(18:51):
they're gonna suffer a cost or if there'shabitat destruction from a housing
development going up, those birds aregonna suffer a cost and that's gonna
contribute to things like populationdecline potentially.
So that's kind of where I left it havingfound that there was a cost to late season
nesting.
But after I published that paper, I waskind of thinking what are my next steps?

(19:15):
Where am I gonna go with this?
One thing that I had noticed for a longtime, because I've been doing this for so
long, is that in some seasons, the birdswould nest later in the year than others.
So in other words, I could trackindividual females and I would know that a
female in 2015, say, was still trying tore -nest in mid -July, but the next year,

(19:41):
maybe she's not successfully nesting.
and she stops her attempts much earlier inJuly.
And that was really confusing to mebecause I'm thinking why, if they've still
got time, you know, she did it the yearbefore, why isn't she continuing to try to
nest?
Because I'm able to track them in thefield, the individuals.
And that was really head scratching to me.

(20:02):
And then I had a couple of years in a rowwhere they seemed to end really early, you
know, just the beginning of July, theywere done nesting.
And another years earlier, I realized, youknow, three weeks into July, some of these
birds had been still nesting in prioryears.
So this was really confusing to me becauseit didn't make any sense.
so basically, you know, and you kind oftouched on this when we first started

(20:26):
talking, we oftentimes think that ifsomething happens differently, all of a
sudden that there's a problem.
Right.
So I immediately started thinking, youknow, maybe it's climate change.
Maybe the seasons are getting warmer andthe birds need to stop earlier because of
the climate.
Maybe there's less food in some years.
We get less precipitation.

(20:48):
So there aren't as many insects around.
They don't have enough energy to bring offtheir young.
So I started thinking of all the terriblereasons, all the bad things that could be
going on in the population.
And, you know, I would brainstorm aboutthis pretty frequently, not really with a
research approach to this, but just kindof wondering what was going on.
I looked at some data.
Nothing that I came up with made sense.

(21:09):
So one year we had a very wet spring andthe birds Ended nesting early the next we
had a very dry spring.
They were nesting later Nothing added up.
so I just you know For a while.
I just didn't understand what was goingon.
And then I I went back to my you knowthinking about my 2017 paper that I told
you about I flipped everything around inmy head and I started to try to you know I

(21:33):
started to ask myself what could be theadvantage?
of stopping early.
Maybe it's a good thing they're stoppingearly.
Maybe it's not terrible things associatedwith climate change, or maybe it's not a
lack of insects in the environment orfruit or whatever they're eating, right?
So flipping that around, I asked thequestion to myself, what advantage could

(21:57):
they have to not prolonging the nestingseason?
You know, there's tremendous, like I said,there's tremendous...
evolutionary pressure on these birds tobring off young.
I mean, that's how they pass on theirgenes, right?
So it's gotta be a really good reason ifyou're not gonna push the envelope on
that, if you're a female viree.

(22:18):
I talk mostly about females because malesare a different situation.
I won't get into the weeds on this at themoment, but the males can have multiple
females with which they mate with.
Females can only bring off four eggs.
So...
dominant male could bring off 10 eggs inour population, whereas no female could
bring off more than four, because that'sall they lay in a season, or that's all

(22:41):
they lay in a clutch, and they don't bringoff any more than four young, maximum, in
a year.
So the females are under the most pressureto get the job done in terms of nesting
success.
And the males are free to move around thepopulation.
Doesn't seem fair, but the females...
The females are much more constrained inthe number of young that they can produce.

(23:06):
So anyway, so I flipped it around in myhead.
What would be the advantage of a femalestopping nesting early?
Because it seems like that would be reallydetrimental if you can keep nesting.
And I just put two and two together and itclicked in my head one day.
One advantage, they can leave earlier onmigration.

(23:30):
Another advantage is they may have alonger time to migrate.
So, maybe they have longer time to collectfood in between here and South America to
get down to South America.
Basically what they're doing in my mind isstretching out the migratory season.
and one of the first things I seriouslythought about is, you know, one, okay, if

(23:51):
you're a, if you're a bird and you'remigrating South America and you encounter
a hurricane, that's not good news.
That's gotta be one of the most.
terrifying events for a bird to run into ahurricane and knowing with the tracking
technology that these birds, many of themcross the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean

(24:11):
Sea, sometimes maybe without evenstopping.
If they get out over the Gulf of Mexico orthey get out over the Caribbean Sea and
they run into a hurricane out there, man,they may be doomed.
If they're way out at sea, what are theygoing to do to get around that system?
They can't fly through the hurricane,right?
So,
This is a major impediment to these birdsmoving south that I don't think

(24:34):
ornithologists in general have givenenough consideration to in terms of what
could be causing population declines.
But understanding that they are prolongingtheir migratory journey down to South
America and understanding that they havethis serious threat looming out there of a
potential hurricane, I put those thingstogether and I thought, you know what, I'm

(24:56):
going to see.
if nesting later or earlier has anyrelationship to the severity of the
hurricane season.
And, you know, it's just like a light bulbwent off in my head.
I took the data, crunched it, and I wasblown away.
I could not believe the results I saw.
Wow.
Just because, A, I'd never heard ofanybody seeing this before.

(25:18):
And B, I wasn't expecting that to be theanswer.
I just thought I might as well check itout and see if there's any relationship.
Not only was there a relationship, but itwas really statistically strong.
It was a very strong relationship.
So that's kind of how that all happened.
Very cool.
Yeah.
Yeah.
I could keep rumbling on, but yeah.

(25:40):
No, I mean, well, feel free to do that.
So this type of pattern relationship, onequestion that I have is what's been the
reception of your...
you putting out that data among scientificcommunities.

(26:02):
okay.
So a couple of things you have tounderstand when you think outside the box,
which I, I think this was thinking outsidethe box box.
and you come up with something like this.
I think there's hesitancy because first ofall, I'm dealing with one population.
it's one data set, even though it is along -term data set, I'm dealing with one

(26:25):
species.
and, you have to realize that.
Ornithologists are, you know, they'reembedded in their own research.
So they're not going to just stop whatthey're doing to get excited about, you
know, in general, they're not going tostop what they're doing to get excited
about someone else's results.
They've got grants that they're working onthat require products.

(26:48):
You're not going to just see a flip of theswitch.
It's going to take some time.
And the reception has been good.
But I understand that, you know, if youwere to...
interview another ornithologist, theymight say, well, we need to see some more
data to see if this is really what's goingon.
And I'm working on that now.
So I'm okay with that.

(27:10):
but, you're also dealing with a situationwhere you have some ornithologists that
have had, have been working on hypothesesto explain some of this stuff for maybe
decades.
And that doesn't include the hurricanefactor, right?
So they're, you know, scientists can bevery competitive.

(27:30):
They're not going to just suddenly dropeverything to go follow somebody else's
research.
Generally things like this take a while tokind of get accepted and a lot of
ornithologists, and this is the correctapproach, would like to see more data, I
think.
but I have not been approached by anybodysaying this is nuts.
You know, everybody has been like, wow,this is really interesting.

(27:51):
Yeah.
and if they said you were nuts, it'sprobably a good sign.
A lot of times anyhow, it shows you'rethinking a little laterally, you know?
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Maybe so.
Okay, that's interesting.
So just going back to the birds, what isthe...
Is there a difference also in theirmolting pattern and their feather changes

(28:16):
in those years where you're finding thatconnection between the hurricane season?
So the birds...
Well, two ways to answer that.
One is the birds are really difficult tostudy when they're molting.
In fact, I can't even find them.
And we now know through this trackingtechnology that many species and probably
the Vira is one of them, they willactually move out of a breeding area to go

(28:38):
somewhere else to molt, maybe wherethere's richer food sources.
So I can't study the tracked birds interms of what they're doing during molt or
how long it's taking them to molt.
One thing that does show up in birdfeathers is if a bird is nutritionally
depressed.
their feathers will show a slightlydifferent growth pattern.

(29:02):
And I did look at that in my 2017 paper Imentioned to you, not in relation to the
hurricane season.
And I didn't really see much in the way ofany patterns with anything.
So that's not something that I pursued.
But I will tell you, you know, one of thethings that, that I think is out there
that is right for the picking is that ifthis signal is real, which I firmly

(29:25):
believe it is that, you know,
I got a long -term data set and thestatistics are very strong.
That signal should be out there somewhereelse manifested in some other data set.
So for example, ornithologists on the GulfCoast of Mexico have been studying
migratory songbirds for decades, you know,that crossed the Gulf of Mexico coming

(29:47):
back in their journey from South Americaand in the fall as well.
I would bet that if someone were to diginto that data, they could see the signal
of the hurricane season in those datasomehow, either in survivorship of certain
species.
So I'm hoping that does happen at somepoint.

(30:08):
One thing I will say is that I don't thinkevery species is going to be affected in
the same way as the Viri, because the Virihas a certain set of circumstances that
make it perfect for this phenomenon.
And one of them...
is that it can only bring off onesuccessful family a year.
And most songbirds have multiple familiesper year.

(30:30):
And my working hypothesis is that thereason they only bring off one is because
of this hurricane season.
And they do, they're a little bit of alarger songbird than many of our smaller
songbirds, obviously, like the warblersare much, that group of songbirds are much
smaller.
So they do fly, actually, I should takethat back because the small warblers can,

(30:55):
we know that they can fly long distancesover open water.
But the Vires do cross both the Gulf ofMexico and the Caribbean Sea regularly.
I don't think all songbirds do that ontheir journey to South America.
So you've got a bird that's crossing thosehuge bodies of open water.
You've got a bird that has to go down toSouthern Brazil.

(31:15):
So they're making a 10 ,000 mile roundtrip.
So both of those things, and they'rebreeding in Northern North America, which
has a fairly short growing season as wellcompared to other parts of the country.
So those factors are creating a situationwhere, that I think is right for this

(31:37):
signal to show up.
So Woodthrush, for example, that Imentioned earlier that Bridget Stutchbury
studies at York University, they don't godown to South America, they go to Central
America.
So they have a much shorter flight.
They may cross large portions of the Gulfof Mexico, but they're not going
completely across the Gulf and then downacross the Caribbean Sea.

(31:58):
So it's a, it's a different situation withthat bird.
I think that's why they can bring off morenests, more families in a year.
So it's like the circumstances are allcorrect for this species to show this
signal.
Right.
And that's, that's really interesting aswell, because it just, it just kind of
makes sense, right?
That, that we wouldn't.

(32:18):
expect to see the same signals or the samething with every type of bird that it will
be specific.
It makes total sense that through theevolutionary pressure of having to go
through the Gulf and the Caribbean thatthey would have some sort of different
development mechanism in order to workwith that phenomena.

(32:39):
The reason I asked about the molting isactually, well, I mean, I think part of
the reason that I originally found yourwork is bumbling around.
in indigenous weather forecastingknowledge and wisdom over time.
And, and so one, one thing that someAfrican tribes will mention is different

(33:00):
feather patterns.
And they'll say, when this bird has thisfeather pattern, we're expecting drought
or heavier rains this year and things likethat.
And there's all these different indicatorsand they're using what, you know, what's
so interesting about,
And it's a terrible shame because in ourculture, it's interesting, right?
That like your research, right?

(33:22):
A lot of people might be like, well, it'sonly one species.
And then the other part of that as well,but it's a really long term data set, you
know, but and then but a lot of times ifyou if you look at like, you know, animals
predicting weather, most people are alwaysjust looking for one indicator.
And then everyone goes, well, we didn'tsee it.
So it's not true.

(33:42):
Whereas indigenous people are alwayslooking at the entire web, right?
They're tracking the ants in the area.
They're tracking the birds.
They're tracking the larger animals.
And then they're putting together thislarger picture of what they think is
coming.
And they have, you know, short -term andthey also have long -term forecasting.

(34:02):
So for example, actually an interestingone in Peru where I live is that every
year, and it's been changed a little bitwith
colonization and Catholicism.
But originally this festival, they hikeabout 15 ,000 feet up into the Andes and
they go for the rising of the Pleiadesstar system.

(34:25):
And they start to look and see if it'sclear or blurry.
And that actually determines when theypredict the rainy season will come.
But this is like four, five, six, sevenmonths in advance is what they're
predicting.
And there were some meteorologists andanthropologists who went out there a while
back and was like, actually they'reaccurate.

(34:45):
And what they're essentially doing ispredicting El Nino or not.
And that has these, all these downstreamimplications for, you know, planting
schedules.
Do you change the type of crop you'regoing to plant?
If it's going to be a drought versus aheavy rain, all these different things.
But, you know, of course, birds are a veryimportant part of.
of all these prediction systems.

(35:07):
And there are some scientific journalsthat I've found where the, the, when
interviewing the tribes, they will mentiondifferent types of plumage on the birds as
an indicator of something going on intheir environment.
So that's why I was kind of curious to, toknow about, you know, if there was
anything coming up there.
Yeah, I, I haven't heard about that.

(35:28):
There's predictions using the birdfeathers.
I'm going to have to look into that.
That's pretty interesting.
Yeah, I luckily I keep a Google Doc withhundreds of links.
So I'll go out and pull the ones with withall that stuff and send it to you later.
It's amazing that they would have everrecognized the link between the Pleiades I
think you said.
Yeah, and then what happened seven monthslater.
That's just crazy.
Yeah, yeah, I'm particularly interested inthe the more long term forecasting.

(35:53):
You know, the short term is it's cool.
But I think the long term is really, Ithink a lot of what
you know, we're looking for now,especially with climate change and
intensity of things.
It's kind of being able to see a littlebit better in the future of, you know,
like, for example, when I was in Mexico,there's a particular type of ant and

(36:14):
there's about six or seven tribes thattrack this ant.
and based on what type of leaf materialthey are collecting.
So one night I was actually, I was up onthe roof trying to do some stargazing and
I hear this crackling sound to my left.
And it sounds almost like a fire.
And I'm like, what is that?
And I walk over with my flashlight andthere's one tree that was about the height

(36:38):
of the roof.
And it's all these cutter ants and they'recutting leaves and then carrying the, I
mean, it was a super highway.
I mean, you know, in other parts, you'dsee them about a foot wide on the road
with just tens of thousands of them.
And I have this video of them and withinfive minutes, I imagine they pulled about.

(36:59):
three to four pounds of plant materialdown in there, all of them coming along
this line, bringing this plant materialdown.
But then I was researching them and someof the tribes would say that depending on
what kind of material they're collectingis what they're predicting for the
upcoming rainy season.
So if they're collecting dry leaves orfresh leaves, that means it's probably

(37:20):
going to be a neutral or a drought type ofyear.
Whereas if they're collecting like mud,then they're going to go fortify.
their nest with mud in order to preventflooding.
And you also see other tribes around theworld with different ant species where
they will have their nests.
There's like there's some in the Amazonand Africa and India where they will build

(37:40):
their nest up into the trees.
And the higher they go, that typically isa sign of what they're predicting the
waters to come to.
Whereas if they put it lower in theseason, then they're assuming that
there'll be less rain that year.
And so it's amazing.
Yeah, just just all very interesting stuffand to kind of look for the patterns.

(38:01):
But when I was in Mexico, you know, myprediction and it's totally anecdotal and
lucky was, you know, hey, I think it'sgoing to be, you know, more of a drought
this year.
And in this region, that would mean ElNino and El Nino hadn't been declared
until about two months after that wasfinally when the meteorological society
started declaring we are going to have ElNino but

(38:23):
The two months before that, I was lookingat the ants going, I think it's going to
be an El Nino this year, you know?
And so obviously I need to be able torepeat that several, you know, at least
five or 10 times to know if it's accurateor not.
But, but fascinating nonetheless.
And so, but one thing with your researchis that they're not predicting necessarily

(38:46):
when the hurricane, but what specificallyare they predicting with the hurricanes?
So I think that is the once you justmentioned, I do want to hopefully I'll
have the data to look at that more closelyin terms of when the hurricanes are
coming.
So I'll answer your question in a moment,but let me while I'm on this.

(39:09):
A couple of years ago, they predicted thatit would not be a very severe hurricane
season.
And it ended up, I mean, they're nevergoing to be 100 % correct, but it ended up
being an above average season.
But I noticed that the window.
when the Vires crossed made theirmigratory journey, which is the peak of
that coincides with the peak of hurricaneseason.

(39:30):
But that particular year, when I looked atthe data, I was really, I don't want to
say shocked, but it was really an eyeopener because that time, that three or
four week period when they are crossing,we didn't have any hurricanes at all.
But it was like before that and afterthat, we got punched in the gut.
So that made me wonder, well, maybe,

(39:51):
there is a finer, maybe they're onlyconcerned about that four or five week
period.
Anyway, I haven't looked at that data yet,but to get to your question, what are they
actually predicting in terms of the datathat I've presented?
I mean, and one thing I do correct peopleon is, you know, the birds aren't sitting

(40:12):
around thinking about this.
You know, they're not like, let's predictthis.
You know, I do get interviewed sometimesand that comes across as how people are
thinking.
So I do want to make that clear.
It's got to be something physiologicallythat's going on.
I mean, the birds aren't aware of what'shappening.
They're just responding to cues andthey've been programmed through millions
of years of natural selection to do thething at a certain time.

(40:35):
And it's probably all controlled byhormones.
But what my data is suggesting is that inyears where there's a propensity for more
severe tropical weather,
that's when they stop breeding earlier.
So that's really all I can say at thispoint.
So, you know, we do have these La Nina andEl Nino cycles.

(40:59):
El Nino years, there tend to be lesssevere hurricanes.
La Nina, there tend to be more severehurricanes.
So there's probably something going onsomewhere in their annual cycle where
they're picking up...
some kind of cue and it might be, youknow, the amount of fruit in the
rainforest in South America or somethingrelated to precipitation.

(41:21):
But essentially what my data is saying sofar is that years with a propensity for
more severe tropical weather, they stopnesting earlier.
And one thing I don't necessarily know isif it's kind of really flipped in years
where there's likely to be less.
tropical weather, that's their prolonging.

(41:42):
So I don't know if they're actuallyshortening or prolonging.
But anyway, their reproductive cycle whenthey're in Delaware reflects the
propensity for either more severe or lesssevere tropical weather in September,
October, November, which, you know, that'swhere I brought in this whole
meteorological predicting type thing,because, you know, we have NOAA and we

(42:07):
have Colorado State University and a fewother outlets.
that do make these long -term predictions.
So once I found that connection, I wantedto see, well, who's been more accurate,
the Vires or the meteorologists?
And when I wrote the paper that youprobably saw that I published when I first
published this, I wanted to write it toget the attention of meteorologists, not

(42:29):
just one of the ologists, because I feellike the Vires could be using something
that are not yet recognized as beingsomething we could put into these.
long -term predictive meteorologicalmodels.
And I don't know if that's the case ornot.
But at any rate, I digress.
What they're predicting is the propensity.
What we're able to predict using theirbreeding cycle is the propensity for

(42:53):
whether it's going to be a severe year ora below average year.
Right.
So, okay.
So they're predicting the intensity level.
of the coming hurricane season, likeyou're saying the severity in that way.
Yeah, I think that's a good way.
That's a that's a good way to put it.
Okay.
And so obviously, they they proved outover those meteorological algorithms this

(43:18):
last time that you put it out.
Is that what happened?
You mean 2023?
Yeah.
Yeah.
So I think what happened there was when Iwhen I got the data.
Yeah, so
The data that I'm collecting, the verishave to know, again, no, right?
They're not really thinking about it.
The veris have to know how to adjust thebreeding season no later than May 1st.

(43:45):
I mean, that's when they show up and theystart all the breeding activity.
So my question was, you know, that's along time before September and October.
What the heck are they, how do they knowthis?
Right?
I don't think it's anything they'repicking up in North America.
I mean, it could be, but.
But their whole breeding cycle, the paceof it is set by when they arrive on the

(44:08):
breeding grounds and really start gettinginto nesting.
So what I was interested in was at thetime that these veris must know how well
can the meteorologists predict.
And as you get closer to the hurricaneseason, you know, the better refined the
meteorological models become, obviouslyfor obvious reasons.

(44:30):
So I just wanted to know that if onaverage are the VIRI's actually better in
May than the meteorologists are in May.
So for this year, man, I should havelooked this up.
So I believe they predicted a slightlybelow average season, the VIRI data showed
that.
At the same time, the meteorologists hadpredicted a slightly above average.

(44:58):
season.
So there was a slight difference there.
Now I've had other years that they're intwo different corners and the Vires won
out.
So, but for this year, you know, it was avery fine line.
It was the, the, the predictions were veryclose.
it turned out to be a slightly aboveaverage season.
but if you look at the error, so to speak,that the meteorologists, how far they were

(45:20):
off with their predictions and how far theVires were off, the Vires were actually.
I could interpret it as being better thanthose meteorological models or it's
certainly not any worse.
So that was 2023.
I've only had, I think one year since2018, when I published my paper that the
VIRI is just, they missed it.

(45:41):
But again, it's not going to be a hundredpercent.
Whatever queue they're using in theenvironment obviously fluctuates too.
So.
Yeah.
Yeah.
And so.
You talked about kind of inspiring, youknow, the meteorologists and not only the
ornithologists.
And so, you know, have you had peoplereaching out at all?
Or is there any curiosity that got stirredup?

(46:05):
The closest I got was the Weather Channel.
One of their meteorologists did a video,actually, it's a really good video.
It's only like four minutes long,presenting my research.
But no, I mean...
I think I'm not surprised just becausethey're using this high tech mathematical

(46:29):
computations and decades of meteorologicaldata for me to come along and say, well,
you could have just looked at the Viri.
I don't think that's going to, I don'tthink that sits real well.
I'm hoping someday maybe they'll payattention.
Yeah.
No, I mean, well, it's just sofascinating, right?
Because yeah, it just...
I mean, that was actually, you know, kindof one of my questions is, you know, what

(46:53):
is it like being in a world that is drivenby this very, you know, molecular
structure focus, you know, as small as youcan get over time, you know, and with all
these things versus this animal ormultiple animal species, and will we find
a way to possibly integrate some of these,you know, with tracking coming right, if

(47:17):
you know, whether it's
Hey, all of a sudden we have the potentialto really track several different types of
whales and birds and all these things.
And then to be able to look at what thatis indicating, you know, will that be
integrated into other, you know, moremicroscopic, you know, physics level of,

(47:40):
of weather forecasting and things likethat.
Or, you know, another thing that I thinkabout is, you know,
My thought is, is that it's cues in theenvironment, but I also think that they're
able to pick up on just very differenttypes of energetic signals in the
environment at lower levels than ourcurrently technology can can feel into or

(48:05):
to actually sense, right.
And that it's sense.
And so I can also see the potential ofsomeone starting to study, you know, how
to bio mimic.
some of these animals possibly and seewhat eventually, but I think we're a ways
off on that one, you know?
But it's fascinating to think about how totry and integrate.

(48:25):
I mean, there's a tremendous amount ofscientific papers now trying to get people
to look at how to integrate traditionalwisdom and knowledge from indigenous
tribes into all of these things.
Cause a lot of times actually they havemuch more sophisticated ways.
of managing, particularly adaptation,they're really, you know, we've lost a lot

(48:49):
of our ability to adapt, right?
If you think about the farmer inCalifornia or in the US, they don't even
there's weather is extremely important.
But in terms of some things like water,you know, water will be there.
It's just a matter of do you want to payfor it or not, right?
Like if you're a California almond farmer,
There's most likely going to be water, butthe price may be triple of what it was

(49:12):
last year.
And now you have an economics problem, butyou don't have the problem of we better
get our forecast right because it's lifeor death if we don't plant the right crop
and have the right planting timingstrategy, which indigenous peoples are
working with every single year.

(49:33):
and so to me, it's fascinating to see howcan we lean into those methodologies and
then to see the people who are starting tostudy them and see what our accuracy
rates, among, among the predictions.
And it's different for differentcommunities, you know?
so, yeah.
And you wonder how much we've lost, youknow, indigenous knowledge.

(49:56):
It's just mind boggling because the stuffthat we have found is so great.
And a lot of it you just mentioned.
But think of the stuff we may have lostforever that knowledge was never recorded
and it was lost.
Definitely.
And it's happening now.
And that's one reason for this show is tokind of get people and to inspire that.
Because I think as of right now, we loseone Indigenous language every two weeks.

(50:21):
my God.
And the and I mean, let's even say it wasone a year, right?
Let's say that that's wrong.
One a year.
But.
everything goes, the whole culture goeswith the language.
The language is holding the entire thing.
And so when you lose the stories, youlose, you lose all that information.
And so it's kind of looking at how can weintegrate, you know, local or, you know,

(50:45):
modern weather techniques with these moreindigenous ones.
But it's so fascinating to think abouthow, you know, how were you received?
Will it, you know, will it make its way atsome point into it?
You know, we can only hope.
and continue to push it.
But you mentioned earlier that you have,you know, a working hypothesis that you
described, but what are some of the otherideas floating around for you right now of

(51:09):
what you want to look at, you know, orwhat you're currently looking at now and
want to look at into the future?
Well, the first thing everybody expects meto say is to try to figure out what the
VRIs are using, right?
And initially that was my thought.
I could write a grant now that I've gotthis paper out.
I could write a grant and try to start toinvestigate that.

(51:30):
But to me, that was kind of like lookingfor a needle in the haystack.
I could spend the next 30 years trying tofigure it out and get zero, right?
So I tried to take a different approach,kind of similar to what I mentioned
earlier about the signal being out theresomewhere else.
So I've been looking in the very data tolook for other clues that might, might
support the data that I've already found.

(51:52):
And I'm working on a paper right now.
I'm hoping to get submitted and publishedwithin the next year that has some really
strong data showing that signal again,manifested in a different part of the
various life cycle.
I don't want to, I don't want to spill thebeans at the moment.
But the statistics again are strong andthey show the same signal.

(52:14):
So now, you know, if you look at the firstpaper that I published, I had, I think it
was three different independent, what wecall predictors of the phenomenon and all
three independently were able to predicthurricane season.
So that's, again, that's pretty good.
Now I've got this other thing that's goingon out there.

(52:35):
Maybe we'll do another podcast in theyear.
Yeah, I love that.
But I'm going to hold that tight for amoment because the data aren't all
analyzed, but at this point it's lookingreally good.
So yeah, no worries.
I'm not going to go out.
You know, there won't be any blog, youknow, scientists claims, you know, but

(52:55):
yeah, that's the SIG.
I can tell you that the signals there andin other places and I've found, I found it
in another place.
So that's really, that's exciting becausethat's what you need to get the ball
rolling.
You asked earlier how's this been receivedand it's been very positive, but you're
not seeing now all these studies funded totry to figure out what's going on.

(53:15):
But once you get the ball rolling and youstart getting data that supports the
hypothesis in repeatedly, independently inrepeated areas, that's when you can really
start to get people to say, okay, we needto take a closer look.
And so that's my goal now.
So yeah.
Okay.
That's exciting.
And do you, I mean, how has this or let mestart here actually is what do you think

(53:41):
would be kind of the, you know, we'llalways quote, you know, real world
implications of this, of this data set.
And is, is there anyone at all who hasused it?
And my other question would be, is, isthis all private data sets or has it
become public at some point where, youknow, other researchers or people who,

(54:03):
would want to work with that data?
Is it openly available or how does thatwork as well?
So the data used to create the statisticalmodels that were presented in my 2018
paper are in the supplementary material ofthat paper.
So someone has that, if they wanted tolook, if they wanted to use that data,
it's there.
If they want to get into the weeds andstart looking at, you know, different

(54:26):
hypotheses and...
maybe some more detailed data, they couldcontact me and we could do a collaboration
maybe.
So, you know, I just don't take all mydata and throw it out there for people to
play with.
I don't think anybody really does that.
But sometimes, you know, when you have afunded grant, the requirement of the
granting agency is to put your dataonline.

(54:48):
But in this case, I'm talking 25 years ofdata that's been funded from many, many
different sources.
So it's not just sitting out there.
But I, you know, if someone wanted tocollaborate, I'd be happy to work on
something.
But, and I think you had another questionthere.
Yeah, honestly, I forgot where I went withit.
that's all right.
And so, I mean, is that is, so I believein one of the articles that I read that

(55:10):
referenced your research was, you know, itwas like, you know, there's definitely
other ornithologists who are now goingback to comb their data.
looking for any correlation.
So have you know, have you been in contactwith anyone or have you had people
reaching out in terms of otherornithologists who were kind of, you know,
combing through their data with adifferent perspective?

(55:34):
no, I think that came, I think I know thearticle you're talking about or where you
saw that.
And I think they had talked to otherhornetologists.
So I'm kind of wondering the same thing.
Maybe they're not telling me that no, noone has, no one has contacted me and said,
Hey, I'm going to look at this yet, butI'm not surprised again, for the reasons I
spoke about earlier that, you know, thesethings take time.

(55:55):
you know, other, and, and maybe like,again, maybe it's just the very right.
So,
I don't think it is, but it could be.
But these things take time and people wantto be convinced before they start
investing their resources.
The thing I've got going for me in thisstudy is the long -term data set and the

(56:17):
statistics are really strong.
So again, I'm off to a good start, butit's not, I had someone else ask, I think
I was being interviewed for another eitherpodcast or whatever it was, but.
They said, why haven't the ornithologistsjust stopped what they're doing and start
studying this?
This is really cool.

(56:38):
Well, I gave you all the reasons earlier,but that's just not how it happens.
It takes time.
Everybody's kind of on their owntrajectory and they're not going to give
up their trajectory for my trajectory.
I mean, we're all ultimately trying to getthe best data possible, but you can't just
switch gears like that.
It's really hard to do that.
Right.
That makes sense.

(56:58):
I mean, everyone's got their rabbit holethey're chasing.
So exactly, you know, and when you're,when you're, when you're halfway down
already, you don't want to climb back outand go somewhere else unless you.
Yeah.
I think the other question was, is, youknow, what, what would you expect to see
in terms of like real world implicationsof the usage of the data?
I mean, how, how do you imagine it beingused when you're, you know, thinking

(57:21):
throughout your days?
So, that's interesting because I.
before I published my paper, I debatedthat, you know, in my head with myself,
debate a lot of things in my head.
But yeah, so I could have just publishedthat in an ornithological journal and not
brought in the predictive stuff, not dealtwith how meteorologists could use the

(57:43):
data.
And that probably would have been what alot of people would have done.
You know, this is just an ornithologicalstudy, the breeding season, the birds...
you know, can prepare for however theyfigured out they can prepare for a bad
hurricane season.
That could have all been put into anorthological journal.
But I didn't want that because of theexact, you know, reason the question

(58:05):
you're getting at here is like, how can itbe used?
I really think that, you know, we're verynaive if we think we understand
everything, right?
We're very, we tend to feel like we havegot all the knowledge now.
You know, humanity ends today and we'vegot it all figured out, right?
So, but I firmly believe that there is achance, maybe even above a 50 % chance

(58:31):
that these VIRES are using something inthe environment that we don't have not yet
connected to hurricane season as apredictor.
So the reason I put this paper in a morebroader scope journal and used
meteorological terms and gave it the titleI gave it,

(58:51):
was to keep it in search engines, so tospeak, in the future so that
meteorologists would come across it ifthey're searching for like hurricane
predictors and that sort of thing.
You're doing the good work.
Yeah, just because I think that there is achance they are using something that we
don't yet know about.
And if we could, whatever they're using,if it is different, which it may not be,

(59:12):
whatever they're using, these birds, if wecould plug that into our long -term
predictive models that we already have,which are still pretty good.
It could make them better.
So there's a real world application forthis research, I think, potentially, at
least down the line, because anything wecan add...
I think one of the things I said in mypaper, what I pointed out was that

(59:35):
meteorologists are continually trying torefine these predictive models.
And one of the ways to do that is torecognize new predictors that they can put
into their model.
And I don't know what the theories areusing, but it could be something that's
not in their models yet.
that if we could figure it out, could beused in the future to make these models,
these meteorological models even stronger.

(59:56):
That's really why I published the paperthe way I did was to, so ornithologists
and meteorologists were reading the paper.
Right.
Yeah, I know it makes perfect sense of theidea of looking for undiscovered or unused
currently indicators as kind of a mainfocus.
Obviously, again, though, looking for...

(01:00:18):
a needle and a very large haystack.
But yeah, and I mean, do you ever do youever kind of just in your free time look a
little laterally into like, other peopleworking on maybe not even birds, but other
animals and hurricane weather research oranything like that?

(01:00:38):
Do you ever kind of explore anyone elsewho's just working with some other
completely different species?
I mean, I'm not aware of much research outthere connecting animals to hurricanes
other than, you know, there's plenty of,there's papers that document mortality
events from hurricanes in the Caribbean,but nothing in the sense of like

(01:01:04):
predicting hurricanes.
I'm not aware of anything going on in thatarea.
Okay.
Okay.
Interesting.
Yeah.
No, I mean, it's interesting because likethe, it almost seems like the easier...
data to find would be to just startlooking at all sorts of different animals,
you know, whether that's tracking ofwhales or sharks or jellyfish or all these

(01:01:25):
things, and then putting that into apattern.
But actually finding the new indicator isman, that's, that's a really big
challenge, but would obviously be amassive leap for those meteorological
algorithms to be able to plug in acompletely new indicator.
Would be revolutionary in that way.

(01:01:47):
Yeah, they're there So there was a paperthat was published shortly after my paper
and I'm forgetting the authors But theyshowed that Sharks, I don't know if you've
read about you probably may have read comeacross this to Sharks in the Gulf of

(01:02:08):
Mexico juvenile tiger sharks.
I think it is will gather their
in large numbers because there's apredictable source of food in songbirds
that have died in bad weather events overthe Gulf of Mexico, which really was
interesting to me because thatcorroborates my, you know, that

(01:02:29):
substantiates my findings because if this,I'm not going to say if this pattern
that's going on with the Vires, there'sgot to be high mortality associated with
these hurricanes.
Otherwise,
wouldn't be any select.
That's the selection pressure from theenvironment to, to force the varies into
doing the right thing.
Right.
So the fact that we came up with this,this, we discovered that juvenile sharks

(01:02:54):
are coming from large distances to feed onthese birds shows that that is a
predictable thing, mortality of songbirdsin these storms.
So that made that that kind of ledcredence to my study.
Yeah, definitely.
You know, it also makes me think aboutjust, huh, interesting.
You know, this could be totally wrong.
It makes me really think about how almostlooking at like, what is a particular

(01:03:18):
species number one most prominentselective pressure.
And for the Viri, it very well could bethat its main selective pressure is the
hurricane season and having to make thattravel in there.
And therefore that's one of its greatestadaptations, which could then lead to this
being very much a Viri thing.

(01:03:38):
And so then looking at other species andthen identifying what is their main
selective pressure and seeing if they havean evolutionary edge in that space, you
know, would to me make a lot of sense ifthat were the case.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah.
And you can also, I mean, one thing that Ifind fascinating is you can kind of see
these years, right?

(01:03:59):
Like you can see, you can almost see ElNino coming earlier.
just by if your news feed is set upproperly, because you'll start to get all
these different things of beached whalesfound here, not usual, these jellyfish
washing up on this shore.
And you can just see it coming through thenews cycle and all these weird phenomena.

(01:04:22):
And then it's kind of actually, you'relike, well, we're probably coming into one
of these years.
And then, of course, this year, I've beentrying to keep track of all the different
ones that I find on the news.
and just keep, keep that, that tab in a,in a document that way I can kind of look
back and see all the different newsarticles presenting, when people are just,

(01:04:44):
you know, finding these washed up animalsthat are not normally in that location.
and so it's interesting that you bring upthe shark one.
I don't think I'd come across that onewith them, coming there to feed on the
birds, but I mean, that's, that's right inline.
It's right there.
I'm going to get a call by the authors andsay, Hey, you forgot my name.

(01:05:06):
I just like at the top of my tongue.
One thing I do like to stress too, isthat, to an ornithologist, the most
exciting thing here is how the breedingseason is affected, not the predictability
of hurricanes.
I think I already mentioned that to youbefore I came on.
To the public, they love the predictinghurricane thing.

(01:05:27):
I'd like to just point that out.
That's one reason I think that you don'thear more from ornithologists is it's
really about the breeding biology to us.
The other stuff is fun.
Right.
So I think potentially does have a usefulapplication.
So yeah.
And I mean, I wonder, I almost wonder too,if like, this is part of how you've done

(01:05:47):
this differently.
And what's unique and maybe even extremelyuseful is to play into that aspect, right?
Because,
that can just generate more interest,right?
And then allowing that interest togenerate, you know, the possibility of
further research that can still get youthe breeding stuff that you guys are
interested in, but also just more publicinterest.

(01:06:09):
Cause a lot of times that's, you know,what we need with some of these issues
with whether it's climate change, it'skind of getting people to realize, wait,
Hey, yeah.
You know, if I do this in my yarddifferently,
you know, I might be able to, to buildmore habitat for some birds that are
coming over here and make it easier forthem to go through their season and things

(01:06:30):
like that.
And so it can generate interest in a lotof different ways.
Just by playing off of the, of, of, youknow, the people will give the people what
they want.
Yeah.
I mean, you do have to do a little bit ofthat.
Sure.
Yeah.
Yeah.
and so with.
With the breeding cycle, what is theenvironmental component of this for you

(01:06:55):
guys?
What are you trying to show with doingthis research?
Are you looking to somehow increaseconservation, preservation?
What are you really trying to bringforward on that front?
Well, it's a little bit of everythingthere.
Like I mentioned earlier, the fact that wenow know that a failed nest,

(01:07:19):
So if we go into a woodlot and we put ina, I don't know, mountain biking trail or
something, or if we clear cut a lot forhousing development or for a road project,
it used to be that, yeah, we'd lose thenests and the birds would just go
somewhere else and they nest somewhereelse and they'll be fine, that kind of

(01:07:39):
attitude.
But now we know that they are under such atight schedule and they can't just, if
you,
push the breeding season, you know, iftheir nests fail and they have to keep
trying and trying and trying to bring offyoung and they keep failing and failing
for some anthropogenic reason, that hasimplications for population biology, which

(01:08:02):
potentially or does have implications forconservation.
So now we know that when we disturb birdsin their nesting habitat, that can have a
rippling effect throughout their entireyear.
And not only is it just a loss of youngthat year, it's...
It's stress on the adult birds.
It puts them in more danger of mayberunning into a hurricane.

(01:08:23):
So I think there are some broaderconservation implications there.
I mean, ultimately, one thing I've donesince this hurricane paper that I
published in 2018 was to track veres downto South America to figure out exactly
what habitat type they're using when theyactually do spend the winter down there.

(01:08:46):
It used to be they just kind ofdisappeared into Brazil and then emerged
the following spring.
But through our tracking technology, we'vediscovered that they're only settling in
very small areas of stunted, dry, nutrient-poor Amazonian forest that's not wet for
the most part.

(01:09:07):
And now we know that the entire NorthAmerican breeding population of Vires...
is concentrated in these forest islandsacross the southern Amazon in a much
smaller area than we originally thought.
So that has major implications forconservation.

(01:09:27):
I mean, if those areas are lost, we'regoing to lose the very right.
So, you know, it's just a number ofthings.
Ultimately, if you ask me, like theoverarching goal of all my research is to
provide data for informed land managementdecisions.
and for conservation.
Okay.
And so I have multiple questions therereally quick, but let's go to, in terms of

(01:09:52):
how the tracking works.
I think you mentioned that you actuallymaybe went down there at this point, but
do you have collaborators in othercountries or people that are really
helping with, you know, relayinginformation back from a place like Brazil,
or is it?
Is it mostly if you have the funding andtime to get down there to discover these

(01:10:15):
things?
Well, you know, it all comes down tofunding.
So the tracking technology, you know, wecan get a lot of that data back in
Delaware when we remove the tag from thebird.
As far as collaborators in South America,I don't have any in part because it's such
a vast region, the Amazon basin.

(01:10:35):
I mean, that's where they're going.
And in the places where we're retrieving,
data from our birds are very remote.
So you can't just hike in off the side ofthe road and get some data.
I mean, there are probably situations likethat.
I've just, my birds haven't settled inthose places.
But there are, there is a network ofornithologists in Brazil, including

(01:10:56):
amateur birders and even vacationers thatgo down there to bird that will contribute
their data to eBird.
I don't know if you've heard about eBird,but it's a, the Cornell lab of ornithology
runs the eBird program.
So you can enter all your observations andsome of those observations I've used and
used in published papers to substantiatesome of the data I have.

(01:11:17):
So I'm supplementing my data with theobservations of others.
That's interesting.
So as far as it's gone, but that'simportant.
And Ebert is, I mean, is that quite new?
I'm not sure when it started, but it's,it's really gained in popularity, just in
the last few years, really.
I joined in, I think.

(01:11:39):
Like 2017, but it goes back at least asfar.
I think it's 2010.
I'm not really sure when it became.
Okay.
Yeah.
I mean, I have it on my, I have it on myphone, you know, and so, but I'm, I'm
curious to, play with it a little bitmore, but you, so.
As a scientist, you're able to get intotheir data set and pull just your specific

(01:11:59):
species and then, or it just shows itright on the app for you.
Yeah.
I mean, anybody can look at very any, youcan today, you can take your app and look
at very occurrences that have beenreported in South America.
Now you've got to be careful because someof those might've been misidentifications.
So it does go through a filter processwith me.
if they're reliable, good sightings, ifthere's a photograph that's best.

(01:12:22):
So you can't just use any data you find oneBird.
So you do have to filter it.
But it's really helpful.
And Cornell obviously deserves a lot ofcredit in getting that thing up and going.
Yeah, I feel like that's one particularproject that will most likely start to get
used by other realms of the scientificcommunity and pulling data from their API

(01:12:46):
or however they've structured it.
But to be able to...
pull some of these large scale migratorypatterns and sightings that I really feel
like that's going to be an interestingone, especially if we can get, and this is
also part of the, the, you know, the bigadvantage of technology is having this
spread out across, you know, thousands ofpeople who can, you know, really kind of

(01:13:09):
take part in a, in an amateur, you know,you know, community scientists type of
thing, right.
Yeah.
you know, and bring in data points thatwere previously on, you know, unable to be
seen by scientists or unable to be funded.
But now you have someone who just anenthusiast who's shipping you this data

(01:13:30):
every once in a while.
It's quite a unique opportunity just inthat way.
Yeah, it's a way that everyday people cancontribute to science.
Yeah, it's a real scientific data.
And if you actually if you go to the eBirdfront page,
You can actually there's a little tab onthere where I forget which tab what it's

(01:13:51):
called But you can click on it and you canactually see that the data moving over
time the birds moving up and down fromSouth America to North America It's really
really cool Wow interesting and you knowbirding has become incredibly popular in
the pandemic actually It's well known thata lot of people took the birding during
the height of the pandemic because it's anoutdoor activity

(01:14:14):
And birding has become, I think it'sconsidered now that it's one of the top
outdoor activities.
It used to be, it used to be, you know,way down there on the list.
But if you take all the outdoor hobbies, Ithink it's number two now.
Wow.
That is fascinating.
I did not know that.
Yeah.
That includes people that, you know, putup a feeder in their backyard and that's

(01:14:34):
all they do.
But you know, nonetheless, they're lookingat birds.
So that counts.
So yeah, no, that's fascinating.
It's, it's a great one.
It's a great way to spend time, you know,to be out.
I've only had the privilege of being witha couple of birders in upstate New York,
but you know, it was just fantastic.
And you know, one of the guys, man, he wasjust, I mean, we would be out somewhere

(01:14:56):
and he'd hear one and he'd just startmaking a sound with his mouth.
And all of a sudden that bird would starttalking back to him.
And he had all these different sounds thathe'd practiced over the years.
And it was just, I thought it was just asmuch of an experience watching him make
sounds as it was seeing the bird.
at that point, you know?
But a lot of young people are doing it nowtoo, which didn't really used to be the

(01:15:18):
case.
So the younger generations have gotteninto it.
So yeah, no, it's great.
And it's, it makes sense that it'd be agreat pandemic type of activity.
And so, all right, well, I mean, movinginto some last questions, and this one is
a little bit more, how do I say,
I guess, well, let me just ask thequestion.

(01:15:40):
But in general, one thing that I'venoticed, especially when working with
conservation or development planning, isthat there's always kind of this, we need
more data, we need more data type ofthing.
And a lot of people that are opposingtrying to move a project forward, you

(01:16:01):
know, for example, right now, there's abig fight going on here.
in California on this coast becausethere's a wind energy plan that's being
pushed through that goes directly into thewhales migration patterns.
Right.
And this is like three, four, fivedifferent species.
I believe blue whales even go throughhere.
They're almost extinct.

(01:16:23):
and it's being forced, you know, throughin all these ways, but then of course
they'll always go.
Well, we need more data on this.
We need better data on that.
And it's a way to just kick the ball downthe road.
Meanwhile, they keep moving forward ineach step of their project.
And I mean, do you see this in thecommunity at all of this kind of data trap

(01:16:43):
of always having to find more?
I mean, I guess at what point, maybe foryour own research, at what point would you
finally say, Hey, there is absolutelyplenty.
Of relevant evidence here.
And I actually could stop if I wanted to,obviously you're not because you're
extremely curious, but at what point doyou think there is this threshold of like,

(01:17:06):
look, anyone who's pushing back againstthis now or says this isn't usable in
terms of the data or if it's one species,you know, whatever.
I mean, what do you think about thatthreshold at all?
Yeah, I mean we have a similar situationhere in Delaware because Wind Farm,
they're trying to put off the coast ofDelaware and some folks are concerned

(01:17:28):
about the effect on seabirds.
It's a major wintering site for redthroated loon.
So yeah, I think, you know,
The public has a really hard time graspingthe fact that science is, you know, our,

(01:17:49):
our statistics, our models, for example,they're all based on what's happened in
the past.
Right.
So we don't always, we don't, they don'tnecessarily predict what's going to happen
in the future.
And the thing is when things change, well,the data can change over time.
but you can't just wait forever to collectdata and see over 500 years, what's going
to happen.

(01:18:10):
Exactly.
What's happening with the data, right?
So, I mean, number one, long -term data ismuch better in general than short -term
data.
It's a lot more robust.
It gives you a much higher confidencelevel of what's actually going on out
there.
But I mean, if we're under timeconstraints for something like a
development project like you're talkingabout, I mean, it's easy for me to say as

(01:18:32):
a scientist, I'm not the one funding thesethings.
I'm not the one that's making money off ofthem.
But you...
You can only, you can only go on what youhave.
Right.
And if the data shows that there's a majorproblem, that's all you, that's the best
knowledge that you have at that time.
It doesn't make any sense to say, well,you've got six years of data and it shows

(01:18:55):
that there's a problem, but that's notlong enough.
So we're going to go on with our projectbecause there's no indication that there's
not a problem.
You know what I'm saying?
Right.
The only indication at that point is thereis a problem.
Now, if you find out that every 10 years,the population goes up and down naturally,
and it's not going to be affected by thewind farms or whatever.
I mean, so what if you do find out what'sthe consequence there?

(01:19:17):
Well, somebody is not making as much moneyas they could or whatever.
So, I mean, it's all a balancing act.
And you...
I guess my response to that is if the dataare showing, you know, if it's good data,
if it's been collected in a scientificallysound way, if the statistics, which is
really important because that's a way toquantify things, if the statistics are

(01:19:39):
showing that there's an issue or there's aproblem or a population decline or that
there could be, you have to use what wecall the precautionary principle, which is
you assume until proven otherwise, youassume that that's what
That's what the truth is.
I mean, you assume that that's what'sreally happening because you don't have

(01:20:00):
data to say, you know, if you're going toinsist on data, if you're going to, if
you're going to insist that the dataaren't good enough to show that there is a
problem, you also can't insist thatthere's data showing that there's not a
problem.
That makes sense.
You know what I mean?
Like, if you don't have any, if, if you'vegot five years of data that says there's
an issue and you have zero years sayingthat there's not an issue, which if the

(01:20:22):
data are collected,
at properly, supposedly, you wouldn't havethat conflict.
Why would you hang your hat on the thingthat the thing that you have no data to
support?
Gotcha.
That makes sense?
Yeah, no, no, yeah, it makes sense.
No, it makes sense.
It's just that's where this whole thingstarts to dip into politics.

(01:20:43):
And it gets it gets interesting because itbecomes, you know, very twisted and turned
in different ways.
Yeah, but here is.
Yeah, sorry.
Well, no, go ahead.
Here here is, you know, you hear peoplesay, well, you know, the environmentalists
are saying we need wind farms, but thenthey're saying that there's a problem with
the birds.
Well, we do need wind farms and there maybe a problem with the birds.

(01:21:06):
It's not it's not black and white.
I mean, you can have some people concernedabout the birds and others advocating to
just move forward with a wind farm.
You know, it depends on your interests andperspectives, but, you know, both could
both are correct.
We do need renewable energy.
And but we do need birds too.
So, and whales in your case.
Yeah.
Yeah.
I mean, yeah, that's, I think the possiblythe most interesting part of all of this,

(01:21:30):
sadly, is this, this very new, like morebroad development of, and I'm sure this
has always existed for a long time, butseeing the amount of green projects and
environmental and watching theenvironmental community split deeply.
you know, based on, well, we need greenenergy.
But then if you start to look at all thedifferent species impacted, and then it

(01:21:53):
gets into, you know, are we taking, whichoftentimes I see most people these days,
we live in a very anthropocentric world,right?
It's all about how does this benefithumans?
Humans need this, we need that.
And it's not necessarily this, you know,increased multi species, you know,
everyone's included type of,

(01:22:14):
type of mindset.
And so it's very interesting to see theseprojects go through the processes and why,
you know, I've been to a, I've seen onemeeting before and you, you have all these
raging Republicans in upstate New York,and then you have all these raging
environmentalists and they're all comingtogether to try and block this wind farm
in their community.

(01:22:36):
And the irony just, just goes so deep onthese ones.
It's quite, quite amazing.
Well, the other problem is,
One of the cases off the East coast was,you know, they got the lease for the wind
farms and nobody knew about, you know,they got the lease and then we find out
that there's a potential conflict.
So they can't move the wind farm.

(01:22:57):
Like it's like, that's where our lease is.
And it's just like, maybe we should havethought of all the potential problems
first to see where to, where to get your,where you should have applied for a lease
or however the process goes.
showing ignorance here too, but no, Ibelieve there's a similar situation
happening here where they're going forwardwith these leases before even actually in

(01:23:18):
here there, I apparently there has beensome defined processes to go through and,
and they've skipped some of thoseprocesses.
You know, I think they've skipped maybesome of the research or some steps in the
process and they've gone automatically to.
doing things like, and this is all needsto be researched.
I don't have, you know, very detailedviews on this, but, and this is

(01:23:42):
interesting because this one's actuallythe federal government, right?
You know, I kind of expect this behaviorfrom startups, right?
I mean, if you look at someone like Uberand how they just, you know, go in,
violate every law possible, and then cleanup the damage later is kind of how a lot
of startups operate, you know, but with,with the government, you would hope that,
you know, we would be.

(01:24:03):
a little bit more mindful of some of thesethings, but it's always, it's always
tricky, you know?
Yeah.
And the, I'm not defending the governmenthere, but there's a lot of political
pressure to increase our reliance onrenewable energy.
So they, it's kind of like they thoughtthey were doing the right thing the whole
time to move, to skip stages and move italong and get it approved as quickly as

(01:24:25):
possible.
And then out of left field, you come inwith, well, loons or whales.
Yeah, exactly.
It's like,
Yeah.
And then they think we're loons.
Yeah.
It is tough.
Well, okay.
Last question here, and then I'll let yougo because I could go on for days.
is, you know, is there any way,particularly people say in Delaware, in

(01:24:48):
very, and we'll call it very land.
I like that name.
is there, is there any way the averagehomeowner can contribute to, you know,
making life easier on them?
Is there anything that people can.
do in those communities to help?
Yeah, absolutely.
So, Veres are insectivorous for most ofthe year, but they do eat fruit,

(01:25:13):
especially on migration.
and one major, big problem around here,and I know it is for different reasons in
California is invasive plant species,right?
The more, you know, what a common personcan do, even if you own a quarter acre or
less is plant native plant species.
Virees are not very particular about wherethey stop over when they are migrating to

(01:25:36):
South America.
They just need to eat and keep buildingthat fat and muscle.
So I will get them sometimes, I'm in apretty urban yard here, I'll get them even
in my backyard on migration.
And lots of 40 or 50 or more other speciesof birds are migrating through my
neighborhood every fall and spring.
And it's the native plants that are mostimportant to them.

(01:25:56):
So I would say one of the easiest thingsthat...
that the average person can do is justmake sure in your yard, you have plants
that are native to your region,particularly things that might help birds
on migration, might help veris onmigration, which would be, you know,
native shrubs that naturally fruit, setoff fruit in the fall because the birds

(01:26:18):
will stop and use that fruit in your yard,even if you're in a city.
The insects that eat those plants, thenative insects that the veris eat,
and other songbirds eat are going to be inhigher abundance on native foliage.
So one of the easiest things I tell peoplethat they can do to help migratory birds,

(01:26:39):
including the veerie, is when you'regardening, make sure you have native
plants.
When you go out and you landscape, makesure you're not planting something from
Japan or China as pretty as it might be.
You know, because our native species andnot just birds, but also insects and other
things, you know, they depend on ournative plants.
And we can kind of make our backyards partof that natural environment that they can

(01:27:03):
use during their migratory journey.
So I would say that's like the number onething people can do.
Okay.
Yeah.
And it makes total sense.
It's very easy.
It just, it just takes a little bit oftime.
It's actually not even that expensive ifyou do it over a couple of years.
And that plays very well.
I actually did a interview a while backwith a woman who wrote a book on the

(01:27:24):
American lawn.
She chronicled the history of the Americanlawn and
One of my many working hypotheses as acitizen scientist is that actually the,
you know, justice damaging, with like, youknow, pesticides and other things that
are, that are affecting, you know, insectspecies around the world, but a big one,

(01:27:46):
you know, is just the loss of nativevegetation.
Every, every place there was a lawn, therewould have been different types of flowers
and vegetation.
And now we have.
just this plain grass lawn.
And so I try and encourage people of justplant local species as much as you can.
If you have the opportunity to get rid ofyour lawn and plant something different,

(01:28:09):
if you're willing to go to that level,then please do.
But, you know, overall, I think that it'sa it's a major factor for a lot of
different species, which is just loss oftheir traditional vegetation.
in our houses, you know, and I like thisone because I think so many people with
climate change and all these things, a lotof people are becoming apathetic or

(01:28:32):
they're beat, you know, or they're toldit's pretty much it's like shop at Whole
Foods and be a green consumer.
And that's pretty much all you can do.
And I like to look at what can you doright in your house or in your
neighborhood?
And really, the easiest thing is plantsand trees.
And so it's cool that for the birds aswell.
That's a that's a major

(01:28:52):
you know, a big thing that you can do.
Yeah.
Can I add one more thing?
Yeah.
Yeah.
Cause a lot of people don't think aboutthis.
Talk to your representatives too, and letthem know you're concerned about open
space.
you know, at least in the East coast,we're losing, you know, housing
developments are still going up all overthe place and we're losing land, natural
land cover.
So if your representatives know that youcare about open space, go to, go to land

(01:29:16):
use planning meetings and advocate for theprotection of natural areas.
or maximizing natural areas in housingdevelopment projects, things like that.
That can go a long way.
I just want to throw that one in there.
That's an easy one too.
Yeah, no, definitely.
I mean, and this is a great part of theshow is getting that type of stuff from

(01:29:38):
you and throwing in all these differentways to be really practical with what we
can do as individuals and not leave itonly up to governments or corporations to
make these changes, but to just...
at the end of the day, be able to say,Hey, I'm, I'm trying and I'm tuning in and
figuring out ways that are affordable andpractical for the average person.

(01:30:00):
So, I really appreciate that.
And, well, I've appreciated every piece ofthis and enjoyed myself.
I'm sure a lot of people will as well.
And we're already excited for an update,on the, the next piece of the, the very
adventure.
So we'll be in touch and then hopefully,you know, in the next year or so, whenever

(01:30:21):
you've, you know, gotten that done and youhave some free time again, we'll, we'll,
we'll link back up and have a episode too.
That sounds great.
Thanks a lot for having me on and I've hada blast.
It's been great fun.
Awesome.
Yes.
Thank you so much, Christopher.
And, yeah, have a good one.
Take care.
All right.
You too.
Thanks.
Bye.