In today's Markets Happy Hour Podcast we reflect on 6 days spent in Chile, and the insights from a conversation with Jose Manuel Silva of LarrainVial Asset Management, who shared details of how Chile is responding to the current tariff environment.
It has been a week of much news flow - from the labor statistics surprise at the end of last week, which led to a flurry activity including the firing of the Head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which spooked markets briefly - raising the question as to what data can be trusted from any government agency.
The only way for interest rates seems to be down, now, particularly with a new Fed governor who is a President Trump nominee, and the employment numbers which seems to present incontrovertible evidence that the market is perhaps not as strong as had been previously thought. The Bank of England itself dropped rates to 4% - but only after two votes, as they appeared to be conflicted due to ongoing stubborn inflation.
Equity markets were resilient, reaching new highs in the US, although concentration continued to mount, and we present some charts showing the increased beta in these names. As a handful of stocks become the market, it is only to be expected that their beta will increase, but this then makes it increasingly more difficult for active managers to outperform - as it is difficult to charge fees for holding a few top names, and particularly to gain an edge with respect to them.
We do ask what this stunning rise in markets since liberation day (27% for the S&P and 38% for NASDAQ) means for even riskier sectors such as Meme stocks, AI levered names and unprofitable tech, and these sectors have done even better - indicating an appetite for risk that is clearly accelerating. This may explain the pent up demand for equities even when a period of weakness is evident.
Moving then to emerging markets we reflect on the growing gulf between US holders of non-US assets and non-US holders of US assets - clearly the latter group is larger as US markets outperform, and we ask whether this is likely to ever reverse? At current levels of power asymmetry it seems unlikely - particularly as trade deal chips continue to fall in the US's favor. We then reflect on some green shoots around EM and ask what it means for Chile in particular.
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