In this week's short Markets Happy Hour Podcast, I round out a trip to South America by taking stock of the lessons from the "labs" on the ground here and what we can learn for Developed market economies wrestling with "more of the same".
We start by citing the 3.8% inflation surprise in the UK, and the cold water that that poured on interest rate cut expectations, which, when coupled with a sell off in the 30 UK Gilts (they reached the highest level they have seen since 1998) suggests a squeeze from both sides - from within as the consumers struggle with elevated interest rates and high inflation, and from the outside as investors voice their disinterest in UK long dated debt.
We turn then to the Jackson hole dilemmas, the multi-layered nature of the questions facing them - whether to retain a "flexible" approach to inflation, whether tariffs will have an effect, what to do when fiscal woes run the show (and low interest rates are desired to keep debt affordable).
We touch on the AI wobbles that have sprung up this week, as well as the bond market messaging that all is well, particularly in high yield. It is a sea of contradictory indicators and it remains difficult to see a path to certainty. Finally, the weaker US dollar has led to a rise in popularity of the EM carry trade, which is yet another example of the surprising upside that EM can glean from some of the scuffles in Developed Markets.
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