In today's Markets Happy Hour Podcast we ponder whether the prevailing narrative in the new market era is less a long-form narrative, and more a series of Youtube shorts - short vignettes which can literally capture the mood of a day, and then fizzle out entirely.
A case in point was the changing of the narrative around the judicial ruling that seemed to "void" the tariffs of the Trump administration (the US Court of International Trade) and then the ruling itself was put on hold pending an appeal by the White House. This may have come too late to deter markets, which were already celebrating the relaxation of tariffs on Europe, bumper earnings and growth reported by Nvidia and a return to prominence of the Mag 7.
We discuss how inflation and its own narrative continues to wrestle with the tariff story, and how different operators are passing through tariff expenses in different ways - and getting away with it for the most part, due to the ever-resilient US consumer. Speaking of which, the surprising jump in US consumer confidence is difficult to explain - and it sits at odds with a dip in confidence among CEOs - 83% of whom predict a recession in the US in the next 18 months.
The Markets Happy Hour Podcast is a weekly check-in on market conditions and what it means for investment portfolios. Aoifinn Devitt is an advisor to family offices and institutions around investing for a richer future, She believes that understanding the market context in which we operate is a key part of navigating that future with confidence and agency.
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