Today’s Markets Happy Hour Podcast is recorded live in St. Louis, just ahead of the holidays, and features a wide-ranging and candid conversation with Stephen Douglass, Chief Economist at NISA.
We begin with an economy “vibe check,” exploring the growing disconnect between headline inflation data and lived experience. From partisan consumer sentiment to the K-shaped reality facing households and businesses, we discuss why inflation still feels very real for lower-income consumers even as markets remain buoyant.
We then turn to monetary policy, unpacking the high probability of a near-term Fed rate cut, the concept of “risk-management cuts,” and how the Fed is balancing downside labor risks against renewed tariff-driven inflation pressures. We compare the US outlook with other major central banks and ask whether policy rates may now be flatter — and higher — for longer than markets expect.
A deeper dive into fixed income follows, focusing on why bonds are behaving unusually. Despite tight credit spreads, all-in yields remain attractive, raising important questions about portfolio construction, liquidity, and the growing fragility of the Treasury market as supply rises and traditional sources of demand wane.
From there, we explore the K-shaped economy across multiple dimensions — consumers, corporations, and capital markets — including why large firms continue to add jobs while small businesses shed them, and what that means for the resilience narrative.
We spend significant time on private credit, examining where stress is building beneath the surface, the rise of PIK interest and “extend and pretend” dynamics, and why headline default statistics may understate the true level of risk. This leads naturally into a discussion of private equity, venture capital, and whether the current wave of retail democratization is well-timed.
Turning to real estate, we assess surprising shifts in vacancy rates across industrial and residential markets, alongside emerging shortages in top-tier office space. We also touch on data centers, infrastructure demand, and the energy and power implications of the AI build-out.
Finally, we tackle equities and AI, discussing valuation concentration, bubble dynamics, and why timing matters as much as narrative. We close with a sobering look at US fiscal sustainability, the limited policy levers available, and what all of this means for investors as we look ahead to 2026.
As always, the conversation ends with a clear focus on what these macro crosscurrents mean for real-world portfolios.
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