Tune in for today's Markets Happy Hour Podcast in which we discuss the dramatic developments since the tariff announcement on April 2, as we parse market reaction - separate the pre-existing conditions from the new ailment facing markets, and the medicine which the markets just received.
We argue that the medicine is more akin to an amputation - a limb - or that of international trade as we knew it, sourcing goods from countries that could produce them more cheaply - with a comparative advantage - has essentially been cut off. We have to learn how to walk again. And while we may find a prosthetic limb in time, it may never be the same, but it will function.
We also liken the developments to the tragic events of September 11, 2001. When the unimaginable happened, flying and airline security were never the same again - we have to check our large liquids, take off our shoes, lock the cockpit door - the same will happen in international trade - we will have to develop work arounds, diversify supply chains, prepare for risk events like this one. Even though this "medicine" may be reversible, unlike an actual amputation or September 11 as set out above, the effects of almost seeing it in force will be long lasting.
We parse what we knew already - the Trump Trade indicators that have been in place since July 2024 - as well as what had been happening since the inauguration of President Trump. And then we analyze the medicine that has just been administered.
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