Mountains to Cultivate: South African Agriculture's Future

Johan Kotze, representing Agri SA, delivered a presentation focusing on the strategic environment, the South African farmer, the role of government, future outlooks for 2050, organized agriculture, and American tariffs.

Key Takeaways:

• Personal Motivation and Resilience: Kotze shared a personal story of facing a challenging period in his life in Africa, feeling exhausted and asking "why." This experience, seeing Kilimanjaro, led to a realization to persevere despite difficulties, making peace with the "crocodiles" of Africa. He connects this to the broader agricultural community, emphasizing the importance of understanding their "why" for being farmers and viewing challenges ("mountains") differently.
• Transformation of the Agricultural Sector (Post-1994):

    ◦ The single-channel marketing system that existed before 1994, where prices were centrally determined (e.g., by Kraai van Niekerk), has been dismantled.

    ◦ A significant shift occurred where government funding for formal agriculture largely ceased, but R1.2 to R1.5 billion annually is now channeled into organized agriculture through statutory and voluntary levies from various industries (like pork, chicken, and seed). This signifies a move from government-led institutions to a private sector-driven industry that farmers themselves own and control.

    ◦ The farming community has become much less homogenous, with the emergence of 2.5 million small-scale farmers and 3.7 million informal farmers in South Africa, alongside approximately 40,000 commercial farmers. This diverse landscape means traditional control mechanisms for the informal sector are ineffective, highlighting the need for different management approaches.

    ◦ Consumer influence has grown immensely, now dictating purchasing decisions based on ethical and production concerns, a stark contrast to previous generations.

    ◦ The role of the government has shifted, with the free market and private sector now having a much greater impact. Organized agriculture is increasingly self-regulating, exemplified by the pork industry's biosecurity programs and the meat industry's (Samic) 100% farmer-controlled, state-accredited operations.

• The "Existential Right" of Farmers: Kotze argues that the right to exist as a farmer is driven by three core factors, rather than merely owning land or inherited farming traditions:

    ◦ Global Population Growth: People need to eat, and farmers are the primary providers of food.

    ◦ Urbanization: With 68% of South Africans living in cities (projected to be 80% by 2050), urban dwellers cannot produce their own food, guaranteeing a continued demand for agricultural products. He illustrates this with the spread of African Swine Fever, linked to human behavior and urbanization.

    ◦ Africa's Population Growth: Africa is the fastest-growing continent, with an additional billion people expected within 30 years. This presents an immense opportunity and a necessity for South African farmers to provide food for the continent.

    ◦ Agri SA's core drive is to document food security in South Africa, positioning themselves as key role-players in this vital asset rather than negotiating from a political stance.

• Challenges of International Trade and Tariffs:

    ◦ The 30% tariff imposed by Donald Trump's administration on agricultural products is part of a global shift in trade agreements, not unique to South Africa.

    ◦ Negotiating with the US is difficult; Kotze recounts an instance where the US trade attaché demanded the dropping of SPS (phytosanitary measures) for pork imports (due to PRRS disease, which impacts productivity), while refusing similar concessions for South African citrus exports (related to black spot disease).

    ◦ While the 30% tariff impacts specific industries severely (e.g., 35% of litchi exports go to the US, and citrus is also heavily affected), only 4% of South Africa's total agricultural exports go to the US, suggesting the sector as a whole will survive.

    ◦ A critical issue highlighted is South Africa's lack of a comprehensive national export strategy. Unlike competitors like Chile and Australia, which have numerous free trade agreements, South Africa is hindered by its oldest trade agreement, SACU (South African Customs Union), which requires unanimous agreement from member states for new trade deals. This necessitates a fundamental shift in thinking beyond political figures like Trump or the ANC, towards a proactive, collective strategy for organized agriculture.

• Call for Reorganization and Unity: Kotze concludes by emphasizing that despite numerous challenges, agriculture is the "new answer" for South Africa. He urges farmers to organize themselves differently, think collaboratively, and embrace diversity (in people and ideas). The core purpose remains to "fe