December 29, 2025 • 41 mins
On this episode, we step back to assess where the watch industry actually landed in 2025, revisiting our prior predictions with a focus on the bigger forces at work rather than scorekeeping. We talk candidly about the pressure points that defined the year—pricing fatigue, currency and tariff shocks, and the uneven mood among collectors—while also acknowledging the resilience of independent watchmaking and the ways enthusiasm managed to persist despite real headwinds.
From there, the conversation shifts to what those experiences mean looking ahead. We explore how the volatility of the U.S. market is likely to reshape industry behavior in 2026, pushing brands to think more globally and rebalance their attention toward Asia. This isn’t framed as a retreat, but as a strategic response to risk, growth, and changing demographics, alongside a growing appreciation among collectors for watches and design voices emerging from outside the traditional European center of gravity.
Finally, we zoom in on the cultural and structural changes we see gaining momentum: the rising influence of Gen Z, evolving definitions of value and novelty, and a gradual move away from public-facing watch discourse toward smaller, more intentional communities. Whether through new approaches to complications, aesthetics, manufacturing, or how collectors connect with one another, we see an industry that is fragmenting in interesting ways—less centralized, more experimental, and increasingly shaped by how people actually engage with watches today.
Hosted by Asher Rapkin and Gabe Reilly, co-founders of Collective Horology, Openwork goes inside the watch industry.
You can find us online at collectivehorology.com. To get in touch with suggestions, feedback or questions, email podcast@collectivehorology.com.
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
(00:00):
everyone fights the last war. So now what are businesses in the watch industry and what are
(00:06):
the watchmakers going to be doing? They're going to be asking themselves, my gosh, how do I limit
my exposure to the unpredictability and the volatility of the U.S. market?
This is Openwork, a look inside the watch industry, a podcast from Collective Horology.
I'm Gabe Reilly, co-founder of Collective. And I'm Asher Apkin, co-founder of Collective.
(00:29):
Collective Horology is an independent watch retailer based in Southern California.
We carry a wide range of independent brands, including Ming, J.N. Shapiro,
Fears, and more. To learn more about us and check out our available inventory,
visit collectivehorology.com. Is this our last pod of the year, Gabe?
Oh, yeah, it is. I guess it is. Full transparency, we're recording this on December 23rd. It's our
(00:54):
annual yearly production podcast. So we'll be not recapping 2025 so much, but looking forward
to 2026. We don't rest on our laurels here. No mailbags. No mailbag episodes. No year-end
highlights. Nothing like that. I was the one who pointed out to you how annoying mailbag episodes
(01:15):
are. I think because you pointed it out to me, it really kind of clicked because I was turning
and tuning into some of my favorite podcasts. And they're like, hey, guys, today's a mailbag.
It's so lazy.
And one of them tried to act like the mailbag episode was like a good thing for premium
listeners, of which I am one. I'm a premium listener. And I just want to put it out there
(01:35):
that it's not. I feel gaslit.
The two things I hate the most in podcasts are mailbag episodes and live podcast recordings.
They're just garbage.
Why are you looking at me when you say live podcast?
I don't know. You like live podcasts.
Do you like live podcast recordings?
I feel like everyone who's in a live podcast is like shouting into the microphone and they just
play to the audience in the room versus the hundred times more people who are actually
(02:00):
listening at home. But all right. Enough. All right. So for our end of year podcast,
we're looking ahead to 2026, as we always do. Each of us is going to make three predictions
about the future of the watch industry. But before we do that, as is tradition,
because we believe in holding ourselves accountable, unlike some podcasts out there,
(02:20):
we're going to recap our 2025 predictions. So these would be the predictions we made this time
last year. We're going to see how we did. So Asher, how about I look at one of your predictions?
You do mine and we'll go from there. So I'll start with your first prediction. And boy,
were you prescient. You said in 2025, the one to sub 10,000 segment of the market was going to be
(02:42):
in for a tough time. And I don't know that you necessarily predicted why. I mean, this was,
look, this was, this is a segment of the market that is always going to be the most sort of price
conscious. And for good reason, most people who are buying in this, in this segment of the market
(03:02):
for them, a thousand dollars to $10,000 is a lot of money. This is the segment of the market that
$10,000 is a lot. This is the segment of the market that I, as a collector am generally in,
like, I don't really go above this myself personally. So I totally get it. It's it's any
watch is a, is a lot of money, but compared to the 10,000 and over market. And really I think
(03:26):
it's the 20, 30 and $40,000 and over market where there's a lot less price sensitivity from the
buyers. This is where the price sensitivity and watch collecting kind of really sits.
And we had heard loud and clear, including from our own surveys that we did last year,
that like enthusiasts were just sick and tired of price increases. There was a lot of fatigue
with that. And then what do you know happens tariffs happen and currency fluctuation happens.
(03:51):
The Swiss franc explodes in its relative valuation to the dollar. We were just looking at it today.
It's up again, 1.27 Swiss francs to the dollar. So it's, it's only getting more painful. And of
course these things had a huge impact on, on watch prices. I think we entered a year where the brands
were like, we're going to do everything we can to avoid price increases. And then lo and behold,
(04:14):
tariffs currency fluctuation entered the picture and there was only so much they could do. Of
course they, and we absorbed a ton, but there was more pricing pressure than ever on the market.
And I think this was a segment of the market that we, we saw was the most challenged in this
environment. Not happy. I got that one, right. Which leads to, I think the other one, your first
(04:35):
one, I got this one kind of wrong. Well, sort of, it depends how you want to interpret it. You
predicted there'd be a pretty significant vibe shift in the consumer base. And this one, I think
is a little nuanced because yeah, we definitely have seen, you know, some frustration in the
market for all the reasons we just discussed by the vibe ship that I was talking about was
(04:55):
moving from this place of fatigue, like we were just talking about to a rebirth of enthusiasm
and excitement. Well, but here's the other side of that coin. I, I would actually argue that the
positive vibes have been more resilient than one would have necessarily expected given all of the
challenges. So you got that one half, right. You know, people did actually continue to move in a
(05:17):
positive direction. There were just a lot more headwinds than you would have thought. It wasn't
just collecting fatigue. It was all of the stuff that we were, that we were going through regardless.
I would call it not a, not, it ended up being not a vibe ship, but a, but like a vibe roller coaster
in 2025, I think. And so there were ups and there were downs. So yeah, I got it half right on,
(05:38):
on balance. Yeah. But you know, take the win. All right. Hit me with the next one.
So again, you were right on the money. You're two for two here. Independence to continue their
climb and larger retailers to try their hand at Indies. I think on both of these,
you were absolutely right. I think independence has been a remarkably, not just resilient segment
(05:59):
of the market, but it's one, despite all the things we just talked about that continues to
see growth, which is amazing, continues to pick up mindshare in collector discussions and in watch
media. And then yes, absolutely. We've talked a lot about this this year. We're seeing more and
more retailers from big retailers to smaller retailers who are, who have been. You know,
(06:21):
traditionally operated in the world of mainstream watch brands and the large holding company brands
increasingly looking to independent watches. So you absolutely nailed this one. And I suspect
this is not just a 2025 trend. I, you know, I don't think it's in your 2026 predictions,
but I think this is kind of like a more long-term prediction that we're going to continue to see.
(06:42):
Yep. Speaking of which, your, your next one around brand consolidation, I'm going to go
ahead and for the Duolingo users out there, I'm going to give you a streak freeze on this one.
So I think you're right, but I'm going to delay it slightly and say, I think you're going to be
right into 2026. We didn't see as much consolidation as I think you had predicted,
(07:06):
but I think that it is still a likelihood. So I mean,
it's a good thing. I mean, again, think about all these challenges we've had this year and
the brands and the supply chain has been remarkably resilient. It's under intense
pressure, but it's been remarkably resilient. I'm glad to be wrong about this for sure.
Okay. So your final prediction here was an interesting one. I'm, and I'm going to give
(07:29):
you like a, not necessarily like a freeze on this one. I think this is just a more long-term trend
than a 2025 trend. So you talked about watch media will collapse and be reborn because
traditional revenue and monetization models for all media really, but watch media in particular,
we're going to be just not under strain, but like, there's just not the revenue that the
(07:52):
conventional sort of advertising revenue, or even the revenue from kind of some of the retail stuff
that, that these media companies tend to do to support them. I don't think we've really seen
this. I feel like I've seen a lot of stasis and watch me. Yeah, I would. I think I'm with you on
the long-term. I think what I meant is what I'm now seeing in my own personal consumption.
(08:15):
I'm voraciously consuming unpolished true down crown, you know, essentially paid subscription,
non-affiliated and to a lesser degree in one of those examples with unpolished, but certainly
true with a screw down crown written by people who have no professional investment in the industry.
(08:35):
Obviously unpolished does. Obviously, Tony has been a part of this industry for a long time and
continues to, but he also has lots of projects that he works on. You know, for him, the writer
of screw down crown is not remotely professionally associated with the industry, but has become,
at least to me, a really interesting and compelling, and you can disagree with him.
You can agree with him, but whatever he writes is thoughtful. There is no doubt about it and
(08:57):
thought provoking and thought provoking. So what I would say there is I'm consuming that content
way more aggressively than I'm consuming more traditional watch media content.
So, you know what? You're right. You're, you're right. I think this is, um, I guess like it
continued to happen in 2025 and probably will continue to happen. You're right. I mean,
(09:17):
if I think back to, you know, the era of 2015 to 2020 or 2022, something like that,
I was probably checking Hodinkee multiple times a day. Yeah. And now I'm listening to podcasts from
independent creators. I'm reading newsletters like the one you just mentioned. I'm watching
content on YouTube and Instagram, and I'd say a much greater proportion of my time spent with
(09:41):
watch media is on independent creators and that trend is growing. Okay. So fine. Three out of
three, I struck out, but I will, I will think it's important to point out too, that this isn't,
this isn't unique to the watch industry. We're seeing sub stack and YouTube, for example,
becoming certainly a much larger percentage of news consumption, just in general out there than
(10:04):
it was a year ago. I'm not saying that like it's dominant dominant news players, of course,
but you know, the, the amount, like, I'm just looking at my own, like I looked at how much I
pay sub stack annually now, just for all the things I consume, not just watch related and
it's hundreds of dollars. So that's a significant change. So when like the cable and news divisions
(10:24):
of Warner brothers, right? Like, you know, something like, like CNN and the cable channels
and other media properties of Warner brothers are referred to as quote, the stub company,
meaning kind of like the cigar, but part of, of the business, it, it tells you about the state.
And I think Comcast spun out their cable and news properties into versant, I believe. So that's
(10:49):
like a separate company. It's all owned by the Shineheart wig company. Yeah. So like
traditional or, you know, more traditional media is really struggling in general and the watch
world's not immune to that. And in its place, alternative alternative media has, has, has
filled, has filled the void or offered something that we didn't know we needed, which is, which
(11:09):
is kind of cool. So I I'm giving you three out of three, man. Good job. Well, shucks. All right.
And then you and the final one here said that there are new models for creator monetization.
And I think you nailed that one based on everything we just talked through.
Yeah. I don't, I don't know though. I was expecting to see creators explore new ways to
monetize. So not just doing like sub stack subscriptions or, or, or things like that,
(11:33):
but like find new businesses that they could attach to their content. So I was really thinking
about like an analogy I would give would be like in the automotive industry, cars and bids,
Doug DeMuro and the guys at cars and bids create a ton of really valuable content about cars.
And then that is sort of like this advertising vehicle for cars and bids, which is the thing
(11:56):
that really makes the money, which is an online auction site. And so I'm still, I don't think I
got this one, right? I think this is again, a more long-term thing and we will see it,
but I'm looking for these creators to really find for themselves a more sustainable model
for monetization than just advertising or subscribers, which is kind of where they're
(12:16):
still playing, at least in the watch world. Yeah. The only challenge I would come back
on that one is to say two years ago, the idea of anyone paying a hundred dollars a year for
watch media was unthinkable. And we're there now with, I mean, I'm not saying that like,
I don't even think there's probably 10,000 people that are doing it, but there's thousands.
(12:38):
And I think next year probably will be five figures. Yeah. But I'm looking for them to
come up with new ways. I hear you on that. I guess what I'm trying to say though, is
it's, it's, it's a, it's a, it's a ladder, you know? And you're right. No, one's made the quantum
leap to something that's like wildly profitable, unless you want to start talking about like a loop
this, for example. Well, in fairness, I think we're doing some version of it. Like we started
(12:59):
this podcast two years ago. We're now doing it weekly. We've grown the audience massively.
We've also invested a ton in original video content on YouTube. We've created hundreds
of videos in the last two years. And again, subscribers, the gambling site, you launched
there's my gambling site, my watch prediction. It's not gambling. It's a watch prediction,
(13:20):
watch predictions market. Okay. No, it's regulated in all 50 States. No, but seriously,
I think we're doing some version of it. Like we give this content away for free. We ask nothing
of it other than if you're thinking about an independent watch, check us, check us out. But
I was sort of expecting more people to, to, to veer into this territory. And I suspect we will,
(13:42):
it can only be this open for so long. Fair enough. All right. So I maybe got a D and you got it. You
got an a plus congratulate about the tables have turned. That's never happened before. All right.
Let's talk about 2026 predictions. I'll start this one. So I'm, I'm calling this prediction,
(14:03):
a pivot to Asia. And what do I mean by that? Well, I think this pivot has two sides. One is,
I think the it's the attention of the watch industry itself toward Asia, but also I think
enthusiasts and collectors in terms of Asian watchmaking. So watches coming from, from that
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part of, of the world. And what are they, if they're pivoting to Asia, what are they pivoting
away from? I think they're pivoting away, frankly, from the U S market. And I think the U S market
will rebound in 2026. I think it will be a year for growth in the market. Now that we have a lot
of the tariff stuff sorted well, now that we hope we have a lot of it sorted. Well, yes, it's it's,
(14:46):
but this is what I'm getting at regard. Let's say let's just, for argument's sake, say the,
the tariff stuff is sorted and we've been through the rockiest period of that. And we're entering a
period of relative stability compared to 2025 for argument's sake, I could be wrong, but for
argument's sake, let's say that's the case. You pointed this out to me, which is the scars of that
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are going to be there that the experience of the industry in the U S and 2025 leaves some scars.
And this is famous of, of business and so many other aspects of, of life. Everyone fights the
last war. So now what our businesses in, in the watch industry and what are the watchmakers going
(15:30):
to be doing? They're going to be asking themselves, my gosh, how do I limit my exposure to the
unpredictability and the volatility of the U S market? You know, some brands we know, you know,
do 70% of their business in this market. And so they have to ask themselves, gosh, I need to
diversify. How do I do that? And I think as the U S recovers and remains stable, what's really
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going to determine whether the industry as a whole has an up year or a down year is going to
be whatever plays out in China. If China has a good year, the industry is going to have a good
year. If China continues to struggle in terms of sales, the industry will struggle. So I think the
industry is going to pivot its attention, not entirely away, but there's only so many hours in
(16:18):
the day and brands have to ask themselves, which events am I going to go to? What am I going to
sponsor? Where in the world am I going to travel to do things like collector dinners or enthusiast
meetups? Where am I going to spend my marketing dollars? And I think we're going to see their
time, their attention and their budgets shift from the U S to Asia and to China as they look to
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stabilize their business and hedge against the volatility of the U S market. That's kind of the
war I think they're going to be fighting. So that's one thing. And to your point, that's kind of a
bummer, at least for people in the U S to some extent, like with the tariffs may have a little
bit more stability now and the trade environment may have some more stability, but we're going to
be feeling the ramifications of that going into the future. And the pendulum swings both ways. I
(17:06):
think this over time will swing back and forth. Secondly, I think, and look, brands like Ming,
Patelier Wen are examples of this. We've talked a lot about the watchmaking capabilities in Asia
and in China specifically on this podcast. And I think we're going to see a continued interest
from collectors in watches that are from this part of the world in one way or another, whether
(17:30):
they're made there, like Ming is a great example. The watches are designed in Kuala Lumpur proudly
in Malaysia, but they're made in Switzerland. So I'm not, you know, they're not like, they're a
global watch brand, not like an Asian watch brand, but Atelier Wen, similar thing, you know, it's a
Western and Chinese watch brand, but I think we're going to see more and more attention to
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watch design, watchmaking and horological objects that emerge in one way or another from the Asia
Pacific region, which I think is cool. Like two of the most popular brands we have in terms of
consumer attention at collective in our shop are Ming and Atelier Wen. And I don't think 10 years
(18:14):
ago, anyone would have imagined that. So I think that's cool. I think we're going to see continued
interest in Asia. I completely agree with that. All right. My first one is around consolidation
and investment in Indies. What I mean by this is I think, and we've seen some rumors about this for,
(18:34):
I think probably the one that's banging around the most right now is this idea that
the, that Benny Hamas is going to come back from retirement and potentially buy Debitoon
from the 1916 company for his, his company, but is it the word on the street, the honest
tailors association or the good Samaritans trade group or something, but I think this can go one
(18:56):
of two ways. Now there's a couple of things that can happen here. Look, with the challenges that
a lot of Indies have faced, it's understandable that investment is going to be, I think, really
critical. And if capital continues to become or continues to stay expensive, then, you know,
private investment is probably a likelihood or consolidation to a larger group. Like
what Chanel has done, for example, with some Indies and in partial investment,
(19:20):
taking minority stakes. The question really becomes is somebody investing because they
believe in the fundamental vision of a brand. And there are quite, they're a silent investor
who is, who is there to support the business and wants to have a piece of their long-term growth
or because they think that they know better and can take the brand strategically creatively
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into a different direction. Now, if I'm being deeply cynical, are we going to start seeing
like, you know, Spider-Man Debitoon? I sincerely hope not, but you know, we may end up there if
that's what ends up happening. Or what we might see is a silent investor who comes in and continues
to support one of the most creative and inventive watchmakers of all time, the full staff at
(20:05):
Debitoon, delivering on something incredible. I do think that we will see this. Debitoon is
obviously a very large, very well-known, relatively well-financed company as of today. I think we'll
see this with much smaller Indies as well over the next year. So my prediction in summary,
I think some Indies are going to start seeing minority stakes taken by, you know, the LVMHs,
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the Chanel's, potentially even the Richemonts of the world. We may also see wealthy private
investors like, you know, Benihamas, for example, coming in and trying to take control both
creatively and financially of these companies because they believe that they can do better
than what we see. So I don't know what's going to come of that, but I think the financial
pressures of 2025 are going to put some strategic shifts in place.
(20:50):
Yeah, we're seeing some of that, but I think what you're saying is like Chanel is a good example
of someone who, a group that's invested minority stakes in Indy watchmakers. But I think what I'm
hearing from you is we'll see an acceleration of that. Yeah, I mean, Chanel is a great example
because from what we can see on the outside, at least, they appear to let the, you know, like the,
I believe, correct me if I'm wrong, I believe they've invested in Jorn. I know they've invested
in Romain Gaultier. They've invested in Max Booster and MB&F. And from what we can see on the outside
(21:15):
is that they haven't made any like aggressive, yeah, they let those companies run themselves.
I think the difference there is that all three of those companies were fine again,
so far as we know, financially quite successful prior to the minority stake being taken.
So the question becomes if the business, you know, isn't as strong as some of those,
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does that change the dynamic in terms of whoever invests taking a more aggressive role?
Yeah. So this new luxury holding company you're referencing is called, it's actually called the
Honorable Merchants Group. And, you know, I read this great book years ago about advertising called
Truth, Lies, and Advertising. It's a fascinating book. It was written by a guy who worked at
(21:58):
San Francisco ad agency and its heyday, Goodby Silverstein and Partners. These are the people
who are famous for the Got Milk campaign, also famous for the legendary Porsche ad,
Kills Bugs Fast. In any event, this book goes behind the scenes of kind of those campaigns
(22:19):
and others at the agency. And it was one of the most fascinating reads on advertising and the
psychology of advertising and creativity and how it all works. In any event, this guy who wrote
the book, John Steele, posits that the greatest headline ever written was will work for food,
because it says so much about the person holding the sign. You're more likely to give them your
(22:42):
money because you're thinking, oh, well, you know, this is a person who will work for food.
They're not lazy. They're showing some grit and gusto. Sure, I'll give them a buck. But of course,
they're just trying to get a buck out of you. And he was like, you know, the worst possible sign
they could have held up would just say, trust me. And it's like, that's the problem with the
(23:07):
honorable merchants group. If you have to tell people you're honorable merchants, are you hiding
something? And I'm not saying they are. It's just a terrible name. And that's my problem with that
name. It's just so, so ham fisted. Trust us. We're the honorable merchants group. All right.
(23:28):
Enough of my joke around. I'm sure they're wonderful people. I'm sure they've got a great
strategy, but I'd suggest. But you're just not sure they're honorable. I'm just not. I'm not
sure they picked the right name. All right. My number two prediction is, and I suspect this is
going to be a longer term thing here as well. But I think what we're going to see and hear is more
(23:50):
and more attention from the industry on this, more discussion of this in media, among collectors
and executives, it's going to come up in meetings. What are you doing about this? And that is the
rise of Gen Z. And look, Gen Z is already making their presence felt and driving a lot of taste
(24:11):
in the watch industry. Gen Z is a huge part of the shift towards smaller watches, towards shape
watches, towards watches with exotic dials and bringing back a lot of trends that haven't been
really present or given much attention or love for 30 or 40 years, which is really cool. But I think
(24:32):
they're going to become more and more of an economic force in watchmaking. They're going to
reshape some things. So right now, and there could be a lot of reasons that explain this, but like
the preferred sales channel, for instance, for Gen Z buyers is in the pre-owned market. They
disproportionately buy pre-owned compared to other segments. What's the source on that? Yeah, it's
(24:55):
interesting. So the source for that is actually a study that Watchfinder and Co did. And so obviously
that source has its own bias, but this is survey data they fielded and it's nuts. So 80% of Gen Z
buyers reported that they bought their first luxury watch pre-owned. And to some extent,
that's not surprising. I think your first luxury watch when you were in your twenties, you bought
(25:20):
pre-owned, but they're naturally geared to this. I've seen this in my own life. So my nephew is in
Gen Z, he's 27 and he bought his first luxury watch. It was a pre-owned Cartier. So I think
this is both like where you are in life and where the value is and how you can get more reasonable
or easy entry into a luxury watch, which is generally through pre-owned. But I also think
(25:42):
taste plays a role because so much of what they like is kind of retro or vintage in nature and
probably available through pre-owned. So I think Gen Z is going to, and their impact is going to be
increasingly felt. I mean, Gen Z is now moving into their late twenties and soon into their
early thirties. These are prime kind of purchasing age people. These are people who are going to
(26:06):
define tastes the same way Hodinkee really defined millennial tastes starting 15 years ago. I think
we're going to start to see Gen Z really defining and leading taste in watches. And I think there's
going to be a lot of discussion about that, both in the media, there's going to be a lot of
discussion about it when we go to, when we talk to brands and we meet with them at Watches and
(26:30):
Wonders and Geneva Watch Days. I think a big part of what they're going to be asking us going forward
about our own marketing strategy and approach and our customer profiles is what are we doing about
Gen Z? And the other cool thing about Gen Z I'll add here is I think women are going to play a
disproportionate role in the rise of Gen Z. And I'm seeing this already. Women are, look, it's
(26:54):
unfortunate, but like women are not a huge part of the cohort for millennial watch buyers. And
they're even a smaller cohort for Gen X watch buyers and boomers. I mean, they're not a huge
force right now, which is a real shame in the watch community. I am seeing that start to change
(27:14):
with Gen Z. And I think that's fantastic. So I think women are going to grow as a force within
the watch community and as a force within the industry and driving and shaping tastes. I'll
talk a little bit about that in my next prediction, but I think that is a great thing and it's about
(27:35):
damn time. Right on. So this one's a little bit faster, but I think it's going to be a reality.
We have seen prices increase for all the reasons that we've gone over. And I think in the mainstream
world, that's going to actually result in addition to the inventory reallocation to
countries where there are less barriers to doing business as there are in this current
administration, which is going to lead to inventory constraints here in the United States tied to
(27:59):
higher prices. So what I mean by that is if we have seen prices increase as we did, I know there's
this rumor that Patek is going to lower their prices. I'm interested to see if that happens.
We know that Rolex has potentially some price increases coming in early 2026 is the rumor.
And I think as the prices go up, inventory availability may come down. And the rationale
(28:21):
that I apply for that is if you continue to see increases in pricing, then the only way to make
sure that that product continues to sell through is to have less of it. Because if you have a glut
of product at pricing that is higher than it was the previous year, then that can lead to some
perverse incentives, which can ultimately diminish product value. So where there was
(28:41):
three date justs, now there may be one. Where there were 10 day dates, now there might be five,
even if the price of those watches may increase. So I think we may be entering another period of
some degree of felt scarcity until and unless there's some normalization of the dollar against
the Swiss franc. And as Gabe hopefully posited, more stability allowing businesses to be more
(29:07):
forward thinking. Yeah. So where do you think those other watches
go? I think they're going to go to Asia. Yeah. Almost certainly. I think they're going to go to
India. I mean, India has worked really, really hard to eliminate the trade barriers that have
been there for quite some time. So, and I mean, you can't even understate how gigantic a market
India is. There's over a billion people in that country. Its GDP is gigantic. They have the buying
(29:34):
power. Yeah. It's interesting. So, you know, I think a lot of times when we say Asia on this
podcast and when the industry says Asia, generally it gets conflated just with, you know, China,
but the stats are pretty remarkable. I didn't share this earlier, but a full 34% of the global
watch market and growing is in Asia, 34, a third of the global watch market in Asia, pretty
(30:00):
remarkable. And the region as a whole, so this includes China, but broadly the region at a whole
is growing at a 10.2% compounded annual growth rate, which is remarkable. Markets like Thailand,
Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia are growing aggressively. So this is like double digit
(30:23):
growth in those markets. 62% of the 6.5 billion people are under the age of 35. So talk about
pent up consumer demand. I mean, this is a market that is, and Gen Z and the role they'll play in
reshaping the watch world, Gen Z and the Asia Pacific region are primed to really grow quite
(30:48):
quite aggressively. And that's of course, compared to a lot of demographic challenges in the US,
in the West, more broadly Europe, and even other markets that have been key in the past, China,
Japan, broadly speaking though, the Asia region is really primed for growth.
I mean, if you want to be even more explicit about it, just in India alone,
one somewhere between one in five and one in six people, the planet live in India.
(31:12):
Pretty remarkable.
Yeah. I think the projection is like 1.45 billion people in population in India by the end of 2026
against the world population. That's just a little bit over 8 billion. So I mean, yeah.
It's remarkable. So, okay. My next prediction here, and this is kind of nothing new. I'm
calling this a continued quest for novelty. I think one thing I observed years ago and everyone's
(31:37):
probably going to be like, no, duh, is that watch collectors are constantly craving novelty and
the next thing. And I think we've seen that. I'll give a couple of examples, like the explosion of
jump hours. A few years ago, the jump hour complication was kind of this oddball thing.
I remember IWC reissued the Paul Weber jump hour and it was met with a shrug. People just
(32:02):
weren't really into jump hours then. You think it was met with a shrug?
It was met with a shrug. I mean, if they had launched that watch this year, it would have
been the bell of the ball, but it was kind of met with a shrug, but now it's like jump hours are
really cool. I mean, one of the most popular fears watches we sell, probably the most popular fears
watch we sold this year were their jump hours. Christopher Ward has jumped back in on the jump
(32:27):
hours as have many others. So that's what I mean. The industry and really consumers crave novelty.
And I think there's three areas in particular, and I'll make my bet here because I couldn't
just pick one where I think we're going to see the quest for novelty shift next year.
(32:48):
The first is in complications more broadly. I think something like the jump hour is an
interesting one that sets this up. People are becoming increasingly interested in complications.
The Bel Canto is another great example of this. I think the expectation is going to be from brands
at all price ranges, we want to see how much value you can offer around interesting and unusual
(33:11):
complications. So I think we're going to see continued interest in complications more so
than we've seen in the past. I've said this before. I think jewelry watches are going to
continue to grow in their mindshare. We've seen the small shaped watches with exotic dials become
an area of focus for collectors. And I think the next area is jewelry. And I don't mean like
(33:34):
crazy Van Cleef and Arpel level jewelry watches, but I think more gem setting and things like that.
I saw this this year, one of the most popular watches we sold this year was the Atelier Winn
Ancestra, which had baguette indices. And I thought that was going to be extremely polarizing
and limit the appeal of the watch. It did not at all. I mean, that thing sold like gangbusters
(33:56):
and was one of the things that people found appealing about the watch. I was worried that
lab grown diamonds were going to catch the ire of the enthusiast community and that
gems would turn them off. Did not at all. It was viewed as a strength, not a liability of
that watch. So I think gem setting and jewelry watches will continue to grow in popularity and
(34:20):
attention. And then the last is 3D printing. I think we're going to see more and more use of
3D printing. A great example from this year was the Ming Polymesh. This was a mind-blowing
exercise in 3D printing. I think a lot of times when we think about 3D printing, especially in
watches, it can be kind of crude and limited to cases, not particularly well-finished or
(34:42):
interesting. And it's just sort of like a stand-in for what you could do with other materials or CNC.
But, you know, Holzenrichs has shown this and Ming has shown this. You can do remarkable things with
3D printing and, you know, sort of additive manufacturing that just simply aren't
possible with CNC and other more conventional methods of watchmaking. So I think we're going
(35:06):
to see people be more interested in this, looking for more of it and rewarding more of it. So
complications, jewelry and gem set watches and 3D printing, I think are all areas of novelty
where we're going to see increased interest this year. All right, your final prediction. And I have
no idea what this means. Yeah. So what it means is, well, what is it? So in the notes, it says
(35:28):
hard pivot to private groups. And what I mean by that is for the last, I don't know, eight to 10
years, there has been a tremendous community of people on Instagram in particular, certainly Reddit,
focused on watch community in a public style forum or semi-public forum.
(35:50):
And what I think we're going to continue to see over the next 12 to 24 months is more and more
and more insular modular communities. So for example, aside from personal watch communities
that I'm in, where the groups are in the sort of 200 to 250 member size, I see larger groups
(36:12):
after that. So like the red bar groups, for example, I'm in one from my time in the Bay Area
called 49 Crowns. That's pushing several hundred. So it's above 250. And then I've recently, as of
the last year and change, was added to another group, which I participate in called the Micro
Indie Collective. And MIC, name aside, has also grown dramatically. There's hundreds of people in
(36:36):
there. And sure, there's overlap between various groups that I'm in. There's no doubt about it.
But these different groups do focus on different corners of the industry. MIC focuses on
sub $10,000, really sub $5,000 watches, mostly, not entirely, but mostly. Obviously groups like
49 Crowns and Red Bar are all over the map in terms of what they talk about. And then the
(36:59):
private groups that I'm in, private collectors, it's anybody's guess in terms of the personal
taste of those folks. But even like the Red Bars, they're grounded in a geography. Yeah, but the
reason why I bring this up is just from a business standpoint, the inquiries that I'm getting
from new clients, for example, a lot of those used to come in on Instagram DMs. Now those are coming
(37:20):
to me on WhatsApp from some of these groups. So this is anecdotal. I don't have quantifiable
evidence to say that Instagram engagement is down, for example. I don't know if it is, maybe it's up.
But just from an anecdotal standpoint, speaking as a watch dealer, I am seeing much more over the
last 12 months pivot into those self-selecting groups than the more public forums. I suspect
(37:47):
that that is a similar trend as what we were talking about earlier around gravitational pull
of substack, for example, versus mainstream quote-unquote media. This is a much broader
phenomenon. I think the watches and the watch industry or watch communities are maybe catching
onto this a bit later to some extent. This was something that when we worked at Facebook,
(38:08):
the company would talk about all the time, which was social media at your point started as
something that was very much like a public forum or like this amphitheater where someone
could post and everyone could comment around it to more one-to-one and what they would call
one-to-many group chats and things like that. This is why Facebook bought WhatsApp. This is
(38:29):
why they've continued to invest in it. This is why they've built more chat and group features
into things like Instagram. So this is a broader phenomenon. But you're right. The more that I
think about it, Instagram in particular and YouTube to a large extent have really dominated
watch social media. And slowly and steadily over time, you're right, I'm seeing WhatsApp
(38:54):
and other private groups gather steam, which is interesting. It's almost a callback to a lot of
the behavior on the forums, which is cool. Absolutely. All right. So we'll see. Those
are our 2026 predictions. We'll see how wrong I am and how right Asher is in a year when we
do our 2027 predictions. But before we go, I do think and I mean, I know how I feel when I hear
(39:19):
these sorts of things, but I would be remiss if I didn't say it. I want to just put a massive
thank you out there to absolutely everybody who listens to this, whether you're a existing client
of ours or a potential client of ours or even just a passive listener. I can't thank you enough.
As you've heard us say, if you're a regular listener of this podcast, this is very much Gabe
(39:42):
and my life work. And now we can include our friends Jeff Souter and Ali Panza from operations
here and sales here in that list. We take this very seriously and we know you guys do too.
So I just want to say thank you for helping to make this not only a successful business,
(40:03):
but a place where I am not only proud to work, but am happy to work. So thank you for that.
Yeah, it was an absolutely banner year for Collective, our biggest year ever in terms of
the number of watches we sold, the revenue we did, the people we met, the events we participated in,
the content creation. It was a mind boggling year and a wildly successful
(40:32):
year. And I don't mean that just like a financially wildly successful idea. That's
not why we do this. We do this because to Asher's point, this is what we love.
It sounds trite, but truly we are living our dream here, being able to do this every day. And none of
that is possible without the people who support this business, who support independent watchmaking,
(40:55):
who listen to the podcast, who watch the videos, who send us emails, who provide comments,
who tell their friends to check this out. So truly from the bottom of our hearts, thank you for doing
all of that stuff because you're allowing us to live our dream and we don't take that for granted.
So for one last time in 2025, this of course is open work. It's a production of Collective
(41:20):
Horology. You can find us online at collectivehorology.com and please seriously get in
touch with those questions, that feedback, those suggestions. And to do that, you can email
podcastatcollectivehorology.com.
everyone fights the last war. So now what are businesses in the watch industry and what are
(00:06):
the watchmakers going to be doing? They're going to be asking themselves, my gosh, how do I limit
my exposure to the unpredictability and the volatility of the U.S. market?
This is Openwork, a look inside the watch industry, a podcast from Collective Horology.
I'm Gabe Reilly, co-founder of Collective. And I'm Asher Apkin, co-founder of Collective.
(00:29):
Collective Horology is an independent watch retailer based in Southern California.
We carry a wide range of independent brands, including Ming, J.N. Shapiro,
Fears, and more. To learn more about us and check out our available inventory,
visit collectivehorology.com. Is this our last pod of the year, Gabe?
Oh, yeah, it is. I guess it is. Full transparency, we're recording this on December 23rd. It's our
(00:54):
annual yearly production podcast. So we'll be not recapping 2025 so much, but looking forward
to 2026. We don't rest on our laurels here. No mailbags. No mailbag episodes. No year-end
highlights. Nothing like that. I was the one who pointed out to you how annoying mailbag episodes
(01:15):
are. I think because you pointed it out to me, it really kind of clicked because I was turning
and tuning into some of my favorite podcasts. And they're like, hey, guys, today's a mailbag.
It's so lazy.
And one of them tried to act like the mailbag episode was like a good thing for premium
listeners, of which I am one. I'm a premium listener. And I just want to put it out there
(01:35):
that it's not. I feel gaslit.
The two things I hate the most in podcasts are mailbag episodes and live podcast recordings.
They're just garbage.
Why are you looking at me when you say live podcast?
I don't know. You like live podcasts.
Do you like live podcast recordings?
I feel like everyone who's in a live podcast is like shouting into the microphone and they just
play to the audience in the room versus the hundred times more people who are actually
(02:00):
listening at home. But all right. Enough. All right. So for our end of year podcast,
we're looking ahead to 2026, as we always do. Each of us is going to make three predictions
about the future of the watch industry. But before we do that, as is tradition,
because we believe in holding ourselves accountable, unlike some podcasts out there,
(02:20):
we're going to recap our 2025 predictions. So these would be the predictions we made this time
last year. We're going to see how we did. So Asher, how about I look at one of your predictions?
You do mine and we'll go from there. So I'll start with your first prediction. And boy,
were you prescient. You said in 2025, the one to sub 10,000 segment of the market was going to be
(02:42):
in for a tough time. And I don't know that you necessarily predicted why. I mean, this was,
look, this was, this is a segment of the market that is always going to be the most sort of price
conscious. And for good reason, most people who are buying in this, in this segment of the market
(03:02):
for them, a thousand dollars to $10,000 is a lot of money. This is the segment of the market that
$10,000 is a lot. This is the segment of the market that I, as a collector am generally in,
like, I don't really go above this myself personally. So I totally get it. It's it's any
watch is a, is a lot of money, but compared to the 10,000 and over market. And really I think
(03:26):
it's the 20, 30 and $40,000 and over market where there's a lot less price sensitivity from the
buyers. This is where the price sensitivity and watch collecting kind of really sits.
And we had heard loud and clear, including from our own surveys that we did last year,
that like enthusiasts were just sick and tired of price increases. There was a lot of fatigue
with that. And then what do you know happens tariffs happen and currency fluctuation happens.
(03:51):
The Swiss franc explodes in its relative valuation to the dollar. We were just looking at it today.
It's up again, 1.27 Swiss francs to the dollar. So it's, it's only getting more painful. And of
course these things had a huge impact on, on watch prices. I think we entered a year where the brands
were like, we're going to do everything we can to avoid price increases. And then lo and behold,
(04:14):
tariffs currency fluctuation entered the picture and there was only so much they could do. Of
course they, and we absorbed a ton, but there was more pricing pressure than ever on the market.
And I think this was a segment of the market that we, we saw was the most challenged in this
environment. Not happy. I got that one, right. Which leads to, I think the other one, your first
(04:35):
one, I got this one kind of wrong. Well, sort of, it depends how you want to interpret it. You
predicted there'd be a pretty significant vibe shift in the consumer base. And this one, I think
is a little nuanced because yeah, we definitely have seen, you know, some frustration in the
market for all the reasons we just discussed by the vibe ship that I was talking about was
(04:55):
moving from this place of fatigue, like we were just talking about to a rebirth of enthusiasm
and excitement. Well, but here's the other side of that coin. I, I would actually argue that the
positive vibes have been more resilient than one would have necessarily expected given all of the
challenges. So you got that one half, right. You know, people did actually continue to move in a
(05:17):
positive direction. There were just a lot more headwinds than you would have thought. It wasn't
just collecting fatigue. It was all of the stuff that we were, that we were going through regardless.
I would call it not a, not, it ended up being not a vibe ship, but a, but like a vibe roller coaster
in 2025, I think. And so there were ups and there were downs. So yeah, I got it half right on,
(05:38):
on balance. Yeah. But you know, take the win. All right. Hit me with the next one.
So again, you were right on the money. You're two for two here. Independence to continue their
climb and larger retailers to try their hand at Indies. I think on both of these,
you were absolutely right. I think independence has been a remarkably, not just resilient segment
(05:59):
of the market, but it's one, despite all the things we just talked about that continues to
see growth, which is amazing, continues to pick up mindshare in collector discussions and in watch
media. And then yes, absolutely. We've talked a lot about this this year. We're seeing more and
more retailers from big retailers to smaller retailers who are, who have been. You know,
(06:21):
traditionally operated in the world of mainstream watch brands and the large holding company brands
increasingly looking to independent watches. So you absolutely nailed this one. And I suspect
this is not just a 2025 trend. I, you know, I don't think it's in your 2026 predictions,
but I think this is kind of like a more long-term prediction that we're going to continue to see.
(06:42):
Yep. Speaking of which, your, your next one around brand consolidation, I'm going to go
ahead and for the Duolingo users out there, I'm going to give you a streak freeze on this one.
So I think you're right, but I'm going to delay it slightly and say, I think you're going to be
right into 2026. We didn't see as much consolidation as I think you had predicted,
(07:06):
but I think that it is still a likelihood. So I mean,
it's a good thing. I mean, again, think about all these challenges we've had this year and
the brands and the supply chain has been remarkably resilient. It's under intense
pressure, but it's been remarkably resilient. I'm glad to be wrong about this for sure.
Okay. So your final prediction here was an interesting one. I'm, and I'm going to give
(07:29):
you like a, not necessarily like a freeze on this one. I think this is just a more long-term trend
than a 2025 trend. So you talked about watch media will collapse and be reborn because
traditional revenue and monetization models for all media really, but watch media in particular,
we're going to be just not under strain, but like, there's just not the revenue that the
(07:52):
conventional sort of advertising revenue, or even the revenue from kind of some of the retail stuff
that, that these media companies tend to do to support them. I don't think we've really seen
this. I feel like I've seen a lot of stasis and watch me. Yeah, I would. I think I'm with you on
the long-term. I think what I meant is what I'm now seeing in my own personal consumption.
(08:15):
I'm voraciously consuming unpolished true down crown, you know, essentially paid subscription,
non-affiliated and to a lesser degree in one of those examples with unpolished, but certainly
true with a screw down crown written by people who have no professional investment in the industry.
(08:35):
Obviously unpolished does. Obviously, Tony has been a part of this industry for a long time and
continues to, but he also has lots of projects that he works on. You know, for him, the writer
of screw down crown is not remotely professionally associated with the industry, but has become,
at least to me, a really interesting and compelling, and you can disagree with him.
You can agree with him, but whatever he writes is thoughtful. There is no doubt about it and
(08:57):
thought provoking and thought provoking. So what I would say there is I'm consuming that content
way more aggressively than I'm consuming more traditional watch media content.
So, you know what? You're right. You're, you're right. I think this is, um, I guess like it
continued to happen in 2025 and probably will continue to happen. You're right. I mean,
(09:17):
if I think back to, you know, the era of 2015 to 2020 or 2022, something like that,
I was probably checking Hodinkee multiple times a day. Yeah. And now I'm listening to podcasts from
independent creators. I'm reading newsletters like the one you just mentioned. I'm watching
content on YouTube and Instagram, and I'd say a much greater proportion of my time spent with
(09:41):
watch media is on independent creators and that trend is growing. Okay. So fine. Three out of
three, I struck out, but I will, I will think it's important to point out too, that this isn't,
this isn't unique to the watch industry. We're seeing sub stack and YouTube, for example,
becoming certainly a much larger percentage of news consumption, just in general out there than
(10:04):
it was a year ago. I'm not saying that like it's dominant dominant news players, of course,
but you know, the, the amount, like, I'm just looking at my own, like I looked at how much I
pay sub stack annually now, just for all the things I consume, not just watch related and
it's hundreds of dollars. So that's a significant change. So when like the cable and news divisions
(10:24):
of Warner brothers, right? Like, you know, something like, like CNN and the cable channels
and other media properties of Warner brothers are referred to as quote, the stub company,
meaning kind of like the cigar, but part of, of the business, it, it tells you about the state.
And I think Comcast spun out their cable and news properties into versant, I believe. So that's
(10:49):
like a separate company. It's all owned by the Shineheart wig company. Yeah. So like
traditional or, you know, more traditional media is really struggling in general and the watch
world's not immune to that. And in its place, alternative alternative media has, has, has
filled, has filled the void or offered something that we didn't know we needed, which is, which
(11:09):
is kind of cool. So I I'm giving you three out of three, man. Good job. Well, shucks. All right.
And then you and the final one here said that there are new models for creator monetization.
And I think you nailed that one based on everything we just talked through.
Yeah. I don't, I don't know though. I was expecting to see creators explore new ways to
monetize. So not just doing like sub stack subscriptions or, or, or things like that,
(11:33):
but like find new businesses that they could attach to their content. So I was really thinking
about like an analogy I would give would be like in the automotive industry, cars and bids,
Doug DeMuro and the guys at cars and bids create a ton of really valuable content about cars.
And then that is sort of like this advertising vehicle for cars and bids, which is the thing
(11:56):
that really makes the money, which is an online auction site. And so I'm still, I don't think I
got this one, right? I think this is again, a more long-term thing and we will see it,
but I'm looking for these creators to really find for themselves a more sustainable model
for monetization than just advertising or subscribers, which is kind of where they're
(12:16):
still playing, at least in the watch world. Yeah. The only challenge I would come back
on that one is to say two years ago, the idea of anyone paying a hundred dollars a year for
watch media was unthinkable. And we're there now with, I mean, I'm not saying that like,
I don't even think there's probably 10,000 people that are doing it, but there's thousands.
(12:38):
And I think next year probably will be five figures. Yeah. But I'm looking for them to
come up with new ways. I hear you on that. I guess what I'm trying to say though, is
it's, it's, it's a, it's a, it's a ladder, you know? And you're right. No, one's made the quantum
leap to something that's like wildly profitable, unless you want to start talking about like a loop
this, for example. Well, in fairness, I think we're doing some version of it. Like we started
(12:59):
this podcast two years ago. We're now doing it weekly. We've grown the audience massively.
We've also invested a ton in original video content on YouTube. We've created hundreds
of videos in the last two years. And again, subscribers, the gambling site, you launched
there's my gambling site, my watch prediction. It's not gambling. It's a watch prediction,
(13:20):
watch predictions market. Okay. No, it's regulated in all 50 States. No, but seriously,
I think we're doing some version of it. Like we give this content away for free. We ask nothing
of it other than if you're thinking about an independent watch, check us, check us out. But
I was sort of expecting more people to, to, to veer into this territory. And I suspect we will,
(13:42):
it can only be this open for so long. Fair enough. All right. So I maybe got a D and you got it. You
got an a plus congratulate about the tables have turned. That's never happened before. All right.
Let's talk about 2026 predictions. I'll start this one. So I'm, I'm calling this prediction,
(14:03):
a pivot to Asia. And what do I mean by that? Well, I think this pivot has two sides. One is,
I think the it's the attention of the watch industry itself toward Asia, but also I think
enthusiasts and collectors in terms of Asian watchmaking. So watches coming from, from that
(14:24):
part of, of the world. And what are they, if they're pivoting to Asia, what are they pivoting
away from? I think they're pivoting away, frankly, from the U S market. And I think the U S market
will rebound in 2026. I think it will be a year for growth in the market. Now that we have a lot
of the tariff stuff sorted well, now that we hope we have a lot of it sorted. Well, yes, it's it's,
(14:46):
but this is what I'm getting at regard. Let's say let's just, for argument's sake, say the,
the tariff stuff is sorted and we've been through the rockiest period of that. And we're entering a
period of relative stability compared to 2025 for argument's sake, I could be wrong, but for
argument's sake, let's say that's the case. You pointed this out to me, which is the scars of that
(15:10):
are going to be there that the experience of the industry in the U S and 2025 leaves some scars.
And this is famous of, of business and so many other aspects of, of life. Everyone fights the
last war. So now what our businesses in, in the watch industry and what are the watchmakers going
(15:30):
to be doing? They're going to be asking themselves, my gosh, how do I limit my exposure to the
unpredictability and the volatility of the U S market? You know, some brands we know, you know,
do 70% of their business in this market. And so they have to ask themselves, gosh, I need to
diversify. How do I do that? And I think as the U S recovers and remains stable, what's really
(15:57):
going to determine whether the industry as a whole has an up year or a down year is going to
be whatever plays out in China. If China has a good year, the industry is going to have a good
year. If China continues to struggle in terms of sales, the industry will struggle. So I think the
industry is going to pivot its attention, not entirely away, but there's only so many hours in
(16:18):
the day and brands have to ask themselves, which events am I going to go to? What am I going to
sponsor? Where in the world am I going to travel to do things like collector dinners or enthusiast
meetups? Where am I going to spend my marketing dollars? And I think we're going to see their
time, their attention and their budgets shift from the U S to Asia and to China as they look to
(16:40):
stabilize their business and hedge against the volatility of the U S market. That's kind of the
war I think they're going to be fighting. So that's one thing. And to your point, that's kind of a
bummer, at least for people in the U S to some extent, like with the tariffs may have a little
bit more stability now and the trade environment may have some more stability, but we're going to
be feeling the ramifications of that going into the future. And the pendulum swings both ways. I
(17:06):
think this over time will swing back and forth. Secondly, I think, and look, brands like Ming,
Patelier Wen are examples of this. We've talked a lot about the watchmaking capabilities in Asia
and in China specifically on this podcast. And I think we're going to see a continued interest
from collectors in watches that are from this part of the world in one way or another, whether
(17:30):
they're made there, like Ming is a great example. The watches are designed in Kuala Lumpur proudly
in Malaysia, but they're made in Switzerland. So I'm not, you know, they're not like, they're a
global watch brand, not like an Asian watch brand, but Atelier Wen, similar thing, you know, it's a
Western and Chinese watch brand, but I think we're going to see more and more attention to
(17:53):
watch design, watchmaking and horological objects that emerge in one way or another from the Asia
Pacific region, which I think is cool. Like two of the most popular brands we have in terms of
consumer attention at collective in our shop are Ming and Atelier Wen. And I don't think 10 years
(18:14):
ago, anyone would have imagined that. So I think that's cool. I think we're going to see continued
interest in Asia. I completely agree with that. All right. My first one is around consolidation
and investment in Indies. What I mean by this is I think, and we've seen some rumors about this for,
(18:34):
I think probably the one that's banging around the most right now is this idea that
the, that Benny Hamas is going to come back from retirement and potentially buy Debitoon
from the 1916 company for his, his company, but is it the word on the street, the honest
tailors association or the good Samaritans trade group or something, but I think this can go one
(18:56):
of two ways. Now there's a couple of things that can happen here. Look, with the challenges that
a lot of Indies have faced, it's understandable that investment is going to be, I think, really
critical. And if capital continues to become or continues to stay expensive, then, you know,
private investment is probably a likelihood or consolidation to a larger group. Like
what Chanel has done, for example, with some Indies and in partial investment,
(19:20):
taking minority stakes. The question really becomes is somebody investing because they
believe in the fundamental vision of a brand. And there are quite, they're a silent investor
who is, who is there to support the business and wants to have a piece of their long-term growth
or because they think that they know better and can take the brand strategically creatively
(19:42):
into a different direction. Now, if I'm being deeply cynical, are we going to start seeing
like, you know, Spider-Man Debitoon? I sincerely hope not, but you know, we may end up there if
that's what ends up happening. Or what we might see is a silent investor who comes in and continues
to support one of the most creative and inventive watchmakers of all time, the full staff at
(20:05):
Debitoon, delivering on something incredible. I do think that we will see this. Debitoon is
obviously a very large, very well-known, relatively well-financed company as of today. I think we'll
see this with much smaller Indies as well over the next year. So my prediction in summary,
I think some Indies are going to start seeing minority stakes taken by, you know, the LVMHs,
(20:26):
the Chanel's, potentially even the Richemonts of the world. We may also see wealthy private
investors like, you know, Benihamas, for example, coming in and trying to take control both
creatively and financially of these companies because they believe that they can do better
than what we see. So I don't know what's going to come of that, but I think the financial
pressures of 2025 are going to put some strategic shifts in place.
(20:50):
Yeah, we're seeing some of that, but I think what you're saying is like Chanel is a good example
of someone who, a group that's invested minority stakes in Indy watchmakers. But I think what I'm
hearing from you is we'll see an acceleration of that. Yeah, I mean, Chanel is a great example
because from what we can see on the outside, at least, they appear to let the, you know, like the,
I believe, correct me if I'm wrong, I believe they've invested in Jorn. I know they've invested
in Romain Gaultier. They've invested in Max Booster and MB&F. And from what we can see on the outside
(21:15):
is that they haven't made any like aggressive, yeah, they let those companies run themselves.
I think the difference there is that all three of those companies were fine again,
so far as we know, financially quite successful prior to the minority stake being taken.
So the question becomes if the business, you know, isn't as strong as some of those,
(21:37):
does that change the dynamic in terms of whoever invests taking a more aggressive role?
Yeah. So this new luxury holding company you're referencing is called, it's actually called the
Honorable Merchants Group. And, you know, I read this great book years ago about advertising called
Truth, Lies, and Advertising. It's a fascinating book. It was written by a guy who worked at
(21:58):
San Francisco ad agency and its heyday, Goodby Silverstein and Partners. These are the people
who are famous for the Got Milk campaign, also famous for the legendary Porsche ad,
Kills Bugs Fast. In any event, this book goes behind the scenes of kind of those campaigns
(22:19):
and others at the agency. And it was one of the most fascinating reads on advertising and the
psychology of advertising and creativity and how it all works. In any event, this guy who wrote
the book, John Steele, posits that the greatest headline ever written was will work for food,
because it says so much about the person holding the sign. You're more likely to give them your
(22:42):
money because you're thinking, oh, well, you know, this is a person who will work for food.
They're not lazy. They're showing some grit and gusto. Sure, I'll give them a buck. But of course,
they're just trying to get a buck out of you. And he was like, you know, the worst possible sign
they could have held up would just say, trust me. And it's like, that's the problem with the
(23:07):
honorable merchants group. If you have to tell people you're honorable merchants, are you hiding
something? And I'm not saying they are. It's just a terrible name. And that's my problem with that
name. It's just so, so ham fisted. Trust us. We're the honorable merchants group. All right.
(23:28):
Enough of my joke around. I'm sure they're wonderful people. I'm sure they've got a great
strategy, but I'd suggest. But you're just not sure they're honorable. I'm just not. I'm not
sure they picked the right name. All right. My number two prediction is, and I suspect this is
going to be a longer term thing here as well. But I think what we're going to see and hear is more
(23:50):
and more attention from the industry on this, more discussion of this in media, among collectors
and executives, it's going to come up in meetings. What are you doing about this? And that is the
rise of Gen Z. And look, Gen Z is already making their presence felt and driving a lot of taste
(24:11):
in the watch industry. Gen Z is a huge part of the shift towards smaller watches, towards shape
watches, towards watches with exotic dials and bringing back a lot of trends that haven't been
really present or given much attention or love for 30 or 40 years, which is really cool. But I think
(24:32):
they're going to become more and more of an economic force in watchmaking. They're going to
reshape some things. So right now, and there could be a lot of reasons that explain this, but like
the preferred sales channel, for instance, for Gen Z buyers is in the pre-owned market. They
disproportionately buy pre-owned compared to other segments. What's the source on that? Yeah, it's
(24:55):
interesting. So the source for that is actually a study that Watchfinder and Co did. And so obviously
that source has its own bias, but this is survey data they fielded and it's nuts. So 80% of Gen Z
buyers reported that they bought their first luxury watch pre-owned. And to some extent,
that's not surprising. I think your first luxury watch when you were in your twenties, you bought
(25:20):
pre-owned, but they're naturally geared to this. I've seen this in my own life. So my nephew is in
Gen Z, he's 27 and he bought his first luxury watch. It was a pre-owned Cartier. So I think
this is both like where you are in life and where the value is and how you can get more reasonable
or easy entry into a luxury watch, which is generally through pre-owned. But I also think
(25:42):
taste plays a role because so much of what they like is kind of retro or vintage in nature and
probably available through pre-owned. So I think Gen Z is going to, and their impact is going to be
increasingly felt. I mean, Gen Z is now moving into their late twenties and soon into their
early thirties. These are prime kind of purchasing age people. These are people who are going to
(26:06):
define tastes the same way Hodinkee really defined millennial tastes starting 15 years ago. I think
we're going to start to see Gen Z really defining and leading taste in watches. And I think there's
going to be a lot of discussion about that, both in the media, there's going to be a lot of
discussion about it when we go to, when we talk to brands and we meet with them at Watches and
(26:30):
Wonders and Geneva Watch Days. I think a big part of what they're going to be asking us going forward
about our own marketing strategy and approach and our customer profiles is what are we doing about
Gen Z? And the other cool thing about Gen Z I'll add here is I think women are going to play a
disproportionate role in the rise of Gen Z. And I'm seeing this already. Women are, look, it's
(26:54):
unfortunate, but like women are not a huge part of the cohort for millennial watch buyers. And
they're even a smaller cohort for Gen X watch buyers and boomers. I mean, they're not a huge
force right now, which is a real shame in the watch community. I am seeing that start to change
(27:14):
with Gen Z. And I think that's fantastic. So I think women are going to grow as a force within
the watch community and as a force within the industry and driving and shaping tastes. I'll
talk a little bit about that in my next prediction, but I think that is a great thing and it's about
(27:35):
damn time. Right on. So this one's a little bit faster, but I think it's going to be a reality.
We have seen prices increase for all the reasons that we've gone over. And I think in the mainstream
world, that's going to actually result in addition to the inventory reallocation to
countries where there are less barriers to doing business as there are in this current
administration, which is going to lead to inventory constraints here in the United States tied to
(27:59):
higher prices. So what I mean by that is if we have seen prices increase as we did, I know there's
this rumor that Patek is going to lower their prices. I'm interested to see if that happens.
We know that Rolex has potentially some price increases coming in early 2026 is the rumor.
And I think as the prices go up, inventory availability may come down. And the rationale
(28:21):
that I apply for that is if you continue to see increases in pricing, then the only way to make
sure that that product continues to sell through is to have less of it. Because if you have a glut
of product at pricing that is higher than it was the previous year, then that can lead to some
perverse incentives, which can ultimately diminish product value. So where there was
(28:41):
three date justs, now there may be one. Where there were 10 day dates, now there might be five,
even if the price of those watches may increase. So I think we may be entering another period of
some degree of felt scarcity until and unless there's some normalization of the dollar against
the Swiss franc. And as Gabe hopefully posited, more stability allowing businesses to be more
(29:07):
forward thinking. Yeah. So where do you think those other watches
go? I think they're going to go to Asia. Yeah. Almost certainly. I think they're going to go to
India. I mean, India has worked really, really hard to eliminate the trade barriers that have
been there for quite some time. So, and I mean, you can't even understate how gigantic a market
India is. There's over a billion people in that country. Its GDP is gigantic. They have the buying
(29:34):
power. Yeah. It's interesting. So, you know, I think a lot of times when we say Asia on this
podcast and when the industry says Asia, generally it gets conflated just with, you know, China,
but the stats are pretty remarkable. I didn't share this earlier, but a full 34% of the global
watch market and growing is in Asia, 34, a third of the global watch market in Asia, pretty
(30:00):
remarkable. And the region as a whole, so this includes China, but broadly the region at a whole
is growing at a 10.2% compounded annual growth rate, which is remarkable. Markets like Thailand,
Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia are growing aggressively. So this is like double digit
(30:23):
growth in those markets. 62% of the 6.5 billion people are under the age of 35. So talk about
pent up consumer demand. I mean, this is a market that is, and Gen Z and the role they'll play in
reshaping the watch world, Gen Z and the Asia Pacific region are primed to really grow quite
(30:48):
quite aggressively. And that's of course, compared to a lot of demographic challenges in the US,
in the West, more broadly Europe, and even other markets that have been key in the past, China,
Japan, broadly speaking though, the Asia region is really primed for growth.
I mean, if you want to be even more explicit about it, just in India alone,
one somewhere between one in five and one in six people, the planet live in India.
(31:12):
Pretty remarkable.
Yeah. I think the projection is like 1.45 billion people in population in India by the end of 2026
against the world population. That's just a little bit over 8 billion. So I mean, yeah.
It's remarkable. So, okay. My next prediction here, and this is kind of nothing new. I'm
calling this a continued quest for novelty. I think one thing I observed years ago and everyone's
(31:37):
probably going to be like, no, duh, is that watch collectors are constantly craving novelty and
the next thing. And I think we've seen that. I'll give a couple of examples, like the explosion of
jump hours. A few years ago, the jump hour complication was kind of this oddball thing.
I remember IWC reissued the Paul Weber jump hour and it was met with a shrug. People just
(32:02):
weren't really into jump hours then. You think it was met with a shrug?
It was met with a shrug. I mean, if they had launched that watch this year, it would have
been the bell of the ball, but it was kind of met with a shrug, but now it's like jump hours are
really cool. I mean, one of the most popular fears watches we sell, probably the most popular fears
watch we sold this year were their jump hours. Christopher Ward has jumped back in on the jump
(32:27):
hours as have many others. So that's what I mean. The industry and really consumers crave novelty.
And I think there's three areas in particular, and I'll make my bet here because I couldn't
just pick one where I think we're going to see the quest for novelty shift next year.
(32:48):
The first is in complications more broadly. I think something like the jump hour is an
interesting one that sets this up. People are becoming increasingly interested in complications.
The Bel Canto is another great example of this. I think the expectation is going to be from brands
at all price ranges, we want to see how much value you can offer around interesting and unusual
(33:11):
complications. So I think we're going to see continued interest in complications more so
than we've seen in the past. I've said this before. I think jewelry watches are going to
continue to grow in their mindshare. We've seen the small shaped watches with exotic dials become
an area of focus for collectors. And I think the next area is jewelry. And I don't mean like
(33:34):
crazy Van Cleef and Arpel level jewelry watches, but I think more gem setting and things like that.
I saw this this year, one of the most popular watches we sold this year was the Atelier Winn
Ancestra, which had baguette indices. And I thought that was going to be extremely polarizing
and limit the appeal of the watch. It did not at all. I mean, that thing sold like gangbusters
(33:56):
and was one of the things that people found appealing about the watch. I was worried that
lab grown diamonds were going to catch the ire of the enthusiast community and that
gems would turn them off. Did not at all. It was viewed as a strength, not a liability of
that watch. So I think gem setting and jewelry watches will continue to grow in popularity and
(34:20):
attention. And then the last is 3D printing. I think we're going to see more and more use of
3D printing. A great example from this year was the Ming Polymesh. This was a mind-blowing
exercise in 3D printing. I think a lot of times when we think about 3D printing, especially in
watches, it can be kind of crude and limited to cases, not particularly well-finished or
(34:42):
interesting. And it's just sort of like a stand-in for what you could do with other materials or CNC.
But, you know, Holzenrichs has shown this and Ming has shown this. You can do remarkable things with
3D printing and, you know, sort of additive manufacturing that just simply aren't
possible with CNC and other more conventional methods of watchmaking. So I think we're going
(35:06):
to see people be more interested in this, looking for more of it and rewarding more of it. So
complications, jewelry and gem set watches and 3D printing, I think are all areas of novelty
where we're going to see increased interest this year. All right, your final prediction. And I have
no idea what this means. Yeah. So what it means is, well, what is it? So in the notes, it says
(35:28):
hard pivot to private groups. And what I mean by that is for the last, I don't know, eight to 10
years, there has been a tremendous community of people on Instagram in particular, certainly Reddit,
focused on watch community in a public style forum or semi-public forum.
(35:50):
And what I think we're going to continue to see over the next 12 to 24 months is more and more
and more insular modular communities. So for example, aside from personal watch communities
that I'm in, where the groups are in the sort of 200 to 250 member size, I see larger groups
(36:12):
after that. So like the red bar groups, for example, I'm in one from my time in the Bay Area
called 49 Crowns. That's pushing several hundred. So it's above 250. And then I've recently, as of
the last year and change, was added to another group, which I participate in called the Micro
Indie Collective. And MIC, name aside, has also grown dramatically. There's hundreds of people in
(36:36):
there. And sure, there's overlap between various groups that I'm in. There's no doubt about it.
But these different groups do focus on different corners of the industry. MIC focuses on
sub $10,000, really sub $5,000 watches, mostly, not entirely, but mostly. Obviously groups like
49 Crowns and Red Bar are all over the map in terms of what they talk about. And then the
(36:59):
private groups that I'm in, private collectors, it's anybody's guess in terms of the personal
taste of those folks. But even like the Red Bars, they're grounded in a geography. Yeah, but the
reason why I bring this up is just from a business standpoint, the inquiries that I'm getting
from new clients, for example, a lot of those used to come in on Instagram DMs. Now those are coming
(37:20):
to me on WhatsApp from some of these groups. So this is anecdotal. I don't have quantifiable
evidence to say that Instagram engagement is down, for example. I don't know if it is, maybe it's up.
But just from an anecdotal standpoint, speaking as a watch dealer, I am seeing much more over the
last 12 months pivot into those self-selecting groups than the more public forums. I suspect
(37:47):
that that is a similar trend as what we were talking about earlier around gravitational pull
of substack, for example, versus mainstream quote-unquote media. This is a much broader
phenomenon. I think the watches and the watch industry or watch communities are maybe catching
onto this a bit later to some extent. This was something that when we worked at Facebook,
(38:08):
the company would talk about all the time, which was social media at your point started as
something that was very much like a public forum or like this amphitheater where someone
could post and everyone could comment around it to more one-to-one and what they would call
one-to-many group chats and things like that. This is why Facebook bought WhatsApp. This is
(38:29):
why they've continued to invest in it. This is why they've built more chat and group features
into things like Instagram. So this is a broader phenomenon. But you're right. The more that I
think about it, Instagram in particular and YouTube to a large extent have really dominated
watch social media. And slowly and steadily over time, you're right, I'm seeing WhatsApp
(38:54):
and other private groups gather steam, which is interesting. It's almost a callback to a lot of
the behavior on the forums, which is cool. Absolutely. All right. So we'll see. Those
are our 2026 predictions. We'll see how wrong I am and how right Asher is in a year when we
do our 2027 predictions. But before we go, I do think and I mean, I know how I feel when I hear
(39:19):
these sorts of things, but I would be remiss if I didn't say it. I want to just put a massive
thank you out there to absolutely everybody who listens to this, whether you're a existing client
of ours or a potential client of ours or even just a passive listener. I can't thank you enough.
As you've heard us say, if you're a regular listener of this podcast, this is very much Gabe
(39:42):
and my life work. And now we can include our friends Jeff Souter and Ali Panza from operations
here and sales here in that list. We take this very seriously and we know you guys do too.
So I just want to say thank you for helping to make this not only a successful business,
(40:03):
but a place where I am not only proud to work, but am happy to work. So thank you for that.
Yeah, it was an absolutely banner year for Collective, our biggest year ever in terms of
the number of watches we sold, the revenue we did, the people we met, the events we participated in,
the content creation. It was a mind boggling year and a wildly successful
(40:32):
year. And I don't mean that just like a financially wildly successful idea. That's
not why we do this. We do this because to Asher's point, this is what we love.
It sounds trite, but truly we are living our dream here, being able to do this every day. And none of
that is possible without the people who support this business, who support independent watchmaking,
(40:55):
who listen to the podcast, who watch the videos, who send us emails, who provide comments,
who tell their friends to check this out. So truly from the bottom of our hearts, thank you for doing
all of that stuff because you're allowing us to live our dream and we don't take that for granted.
So for one last time in 2025, this of course is open work. It's a production of Collective
(41:20):
Horology. You can find us online at collectivehorology.com and please seriously get in
touch with those questions, that feedback, those suggestions. And to do that, you can email
podcastatcollectivehorology.com.
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