The Triple Threat: Navigating NVDA, Consumers, and FOMC

Fresh news and strategies for traders. SPY Trader episode #1428. The market faces major volatility this week driven by crucial earnings from Nvidia (NVDA) and retail giants, alongside the release of FOMC meeting minutes. Analysts advise a defensive, balanced trading strategy, rotating capital into resilient sectors like Healthcare (XLV) and managing broad market exposure (SPY) with disciplined stoplosses.

Episode Transcript

(00:00):
Good morning and welcome to Spy Trader !
I'm your host , Barry " Buy Low " Bogle , and it is 5 am on Sunday , November 16th , 2025 , Pacific time .
We are gearing up for a highstakes trading week that promises major volatility , dominated by the biggest earnings reports of the quarter .
If you thought last week was choppy , buckle up , because this week is all about highstakes corporate results and crucial signals from the Federal Reserve .

(00:29):
The overall market sentiment right now is cautious , reflecting anxiety , especially in the technology sector where we've seen the VIX fear index surging recently .
The S&P 500 , tracked by SPY , is expected to consolidate its position .
The good news is that economic growth estimates remain robust , with the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model estimating thirdquarter GDP at a strong 4.0% .

(00:58):
However , that growth is moderating , and we are entering a pivotal period for corporate earnings .
There are two major events that will determine the direction of the market this week .
First , the entire AI trade is riding on Nvidia , ticker NVDA , which reports earnings on Wednesday .

(01:18):
Expectations are skyhigh , and if they miss or give cautious guidance , especially concerning the China market , it could trigger a sharp selloff in growth stocks , heavily pressuring the Nasdaq100 , which we track with QQQ .
Second , we get reports from retail giants like Walmart , WMT , Home Depot , HD , and Target , TGT .

(01:40):
These provide the most critical realtime assessment of the American consumer .
Any sign of consumers trading down or weak guidance from WMT or TGT will signal rising economic distress and weigh on the broader SPY market .
Finally , watch the FOMC Meeting Minutes released during the week .

(02:01):
Investors will scrutinize these for clues on the central bank's next steps , especially since the latest rate cut was described as " risk management .
" Any hawkish surprise will be a negative for stocks .
Given this cocktail of high volatility and binary outcomes , how should we trade ?
We need a balanced , defensive approach .

(02:22):
When looking at your core positions , such as Vanguard Total Stock Market VTI or SPDR S&P 500 SPY , maintain them , but be careful .
The risk of a technical breakdown in the S&P 500 is elevated due to the tech weighting , so use SPY to manage broad exposure , but set a stoploss just below a recent support level , such as the 50day moving average , to manage tailrisk .

(02:50):
For a tactical trade around the AI test , the most conservative approach is to avoid entering a new large position in QQQ before Wednesday's NVDA report .
The earnings are a pure binary event .
Instead , if you want some limited tech exposure , consider the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund , XLK , which is slightly less concentrated .

(03:14):
With growth under pressure , we recommend defensive rotation .
Increase your exposure to resilient sectors .
The Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund , XLV , and The Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund , XLP , offer noncyclical revenue and stability .
Healthcare , XLV , is always less sensitive to economic cycles than retail or tech .

(03:39):
Finally , on fixed income , stick to short to intermediateduration bond exposure .
The Fed's reluctance to cut rates , despite moderating growth , keeps longterm bonds volatile .
Use core bond funds like Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF , BND , or iShares Core U.S.
Aggregate Bond ETF , AGG .

(04:00):
These offer better stability and yield compared to the highrisk , longduration play like TLT .
If those FOMC minutes lean hawkish , yields will rise and longduration bonds will drop more than diversified funds like BND .
That's all the time we have for today's early edition .

(04:20):
Trade smart , stay cautious , and I'll catch you on the next episode of Spy Trader !