TugofWar Market: Tech Gains, Fed Waits

Fresh news and strategies for traders. SPY Trader episode #1264. Hello and welcome back to Spy Trader, your goto podcast for navigating the unpredictable waters of the stock market. I'm your host, Money Mike, and it's 12 pm on Wednesday, June 25th, 2025, Pacific time. We've got a lot to unpack today as the market continues its dance between optimism and caution. Let's dive right in. The U.S. stock market is showing a mixed performance today. The S&P 500 is recently down 0.1%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 0.4%, while the Nasdaq Composite has managed to gain 0.1%, backing off its earlier highs. This comes after two solid days of gains, largely fueled by some positive geopolitical news. Speaking of which, the ceasefire between Israel and Iran appears to be holding, which has certainly brought a calming effect to the markets and led to a noticeable tumble in oil prices. This has eased some concerns about global crude flow disruptions. On the Federal Reserve front, the FOMC maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5% at its June meeting, marking the fourth consecutive meeting without a change. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, in his testimony today, reiterated that the central bank is not in a hurry to cut interest rates, stating they're waiting for more data on the impact of tariffs on the economy. While some Fed officials have hinted at potential cuts as early as the next meeting in late July, the Fed's median projections still suggest only two 0.25% rate cuts in 2025. Now, for some company specific news. Tesla shares dropped over 4% today following reports of a fifth consecutive month of declining EU sales in May. On the flip side, Super Micro Computer continued its strong run, rising more than 7%. Nvidia jumped nearly 4%, leading S&P 500 advancers, and Advanced Micro Devices rose 3%. Alphabet, Microsoft, and Apple also saw small gains. Micron Technology is expected to release its quarterly results after market close today. We're also hearing that FedEx shares are sliding due to what's being called 'tariff woes,' and there are reports of Shell being in talks to acquire BP, which sent BP shares jumping. So, what does all this mean for your portfolio? The current market environment is really a tugofwar. On one side, we have the positive sentiment from geopolitical deescalation, which has been a major tailwind, reducing volatility and boosting investor confidence. This stability allows the market to focus more on fundamentals. On the other side, we have the Federal Reserve's cautious stance. While some might want quicker rate cuts, the Fed's 'waitandsee' approach is aimed at ensuring inflation truly comes down to their 2% target. Powell's focus on the impact of tariffs on inflation is a key watchpoint, as prolonged higher prices due to trade policies could indeed constrain consumer spending. Looking at the broader economy, inflation currently sits at 2.4% annually for the 12 months ending May 2025, with core inflation at 2.8%. These numbers are still above the Fed's target, indicating persistent price pressures. The unemployment rate, however, held steady at 4.2% in May, a positive sign for the labor market, even if it's slightly higher than last year. A steady job market is crucial for supporting consumer spending. Our Gross Domestic Product data shows a mixed picture. While the U.S. economy expanded by 2% yearoveryear in Q1 2025, it actually contracted by 0.2% quarteroverquarter. This was the first quarterly GDP contraction in three years, largely attributed to a surge in imports and weaker consumer spending. However, forecasts, including the Atlanta Fed's realtime estimate, suggest a rebound to 3.4% growth in Q2. Sectorwise, we're seeing continued divergence. Technology and utility stocks have shown strong gains recently, with AIrelated companies like Nvidia and Super Micro Computer really standing out. This highlights investor focus on growth and innovation. However, consumer disc

Episode Transcript

(00:00):
Hello and welcome back to Spy Trader , your goto podcast for navigating the unpredictable waters of the stock market .
I'm your host , Money Mike , and it's 12 pm on Wednesday , June 25th , 2025 , Pacific time .
We've got a lot to unpack today as the market continues its dance between optimism and caution .

(00:21):
Let's dive right in .
The U.S.
stock market is showing a mixed performance today .
The S&P 500 is recently down 0.1% , and the Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 0.4% , while the Nasdaq Composite has managed to gain 0.1% , backing off its earlier highs .

(00:44):
This comes after two solid days of gains , largely fueled by some positive geopolitical news .
Speaking of which , the ceasefire between Israel and Iran appears to be holding , which has certainly brought a calming effect to the markets and led to a noticeable tumble in oil prices .
This has eased some concerns about global crude flow disruptions .

(01:07):
On the Federal Reserve front , the FOMC maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5% at its June meeting , marking the fourth consecutive meeting without a change .
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell , in his testimony today , reiterated that the central bank is not in a hurry to cut interest rates , stating they're waiting for more data on the impact of tariffs on the economy .

(01:34):
While some Fed officials have hinted at potential cuts as early as the next meeting in late July , the Fed's median projections still suggest only two 0.25% rate cuts in 2025 .
Now , for some company specific news .
Tesla shares dropped over 4% today following reports of a fifth consecutive month of declining EU sales in May .

(01:58):
On the flip side , Super Micro Computer continued its strong run , rising more than 7% .
Nvidia jumped nearly 4% , leading S&P 500 advancers , and Advanced Micro Devices rose 3% .
Alphabet , Microsoft , and Apple also saw small gains .

(02:19):
Micron Technology is expected to release its quarterly results after market close today .
We're also hearing that FedEx shares are sliding due to what's being called ' tariff woes , ' and there are reports of Shell being in talks to acquire BP , which sent BP shares jumping .
So , what does all this mean for your portfolio ?

(02:39):
The current market environment is really a tugofwar .
On one side , we have the positive sentiment from geopolitical deescalation , which has been a major tailwind , reducing volatility and boosting investor confidence .
This stability allows the market to focus more on fundamentals .
On the other side , we have the Federal Reserve's cautious stance .

(03:02):
While some might want quicker rate cuts , the Fed's 'waitandsee ' approach is aimed at ensuring inflation truly comes down to their 2% target .
Powell's focus on the impact of tariffs on inflation is a key watchpoint , as prolonged higher prices due to trade policies could indeed constrain consumer spending .

(03:23):
Looking at the broader economy , inflation currently sits at 2.4% annually for the 12 months ending May 2025 , with core inflation at 2.8% .
These numbers are still above the Fed's target , indicating persistent price pressures .
The unemployment rate , however , held steady at 4.2% in May , a positive sign for the labor market , even if it's slightly higher than last year .

(03:50):
A steady job market is crucial for supporting consumer spending .
Our Gross Domestic Product data shows a mixed picture .
While the U.S.
economy expanded by 2% yearoveryear in Q1 2025 , it actually contracted by 0.2% quarteroverquarter .
This was the first quarterly GDP contraction in three years , largely attributed to a surge in imports and weaker consumer spending .

(04:18):
However , forecasts , including the Atlanta Fed's realtime estimate , suggest a rebound to 3.4% growth in Q2 .
Sectorwise , we're seeing continued divergence .
Technology and utility stocks have shown strong gains recently , with AIrelated companies like Nvidia and Super Micro Computer really standing out .

(04:41):
This highlights investor focus on growth and innovation .
However , consumer discretionary , consumer staples , industrials , materials , real estate , and utilities were declining today .
The energy and communication sectors have also been lagging on some recent trading days .
So , given these market dynamics , here are a few concrete recommendations .

(05:04):
First , maintain diversification but with a tilt towards growth and innovation .
Continue to hold positions in robust technology and growthoriented sectors , especially those benefiting from longterm trends like Artificial Intelligence and digital transformation .
These sectors have shown resilience .
Second , closely monitor inflation and all Fed commentary .

(05:28):
The pace and timing of potential interest rate cuts remain uncertain and will heavily influence market direction .
Keep an eye on upcoming inflation reports and the next FOMC meeting .
Third , evaluate consumerfacing and industrial stocks with caution .
These sectors are more directly impacted by consumer spending trends and potential economic slowdowns .

(05:52):
Look for companies with strong pricing power or those that might offer attractive valuations after corrections .
Fourth , consider quality and defensive plays .
Incorporate highquality companies with stable earnings , strong cash flows , and sustainable dividends into your portfolio .
Utilities and healthcare , while they've lagged recently , can provide stability during uncertain times .

(06:18):
Fifth , stay informed on geopolitical developments .
While the current ceasefire is a positive , geopolitical situations can change rapidly .
Continue to monitor international news for any renewed tensions that could impact energy prices or global supply chains .
And finally , reassess your portfolio allocations regularly .

(06:41):
Given the dynamic market and economic conditions , periodically rebalance your portfolio to ensure it aligns with your risk tolerance and longterm financial goals .
Market leadership can shift , and adjusting your allocations can help capture new opportunities and mitigate risks .
In summary , the U.S.
stock market is showing resilience , particularly in tech , buoyed by this geopolitical calm .

(07:08):
However , a vigilant Fed , sticky inflation , and some signs of moderating economic activity warrant a selective and diversified investment approach .
That's all for today on Spy Trader .
I'm Money Mike , reminding you to stay sharp , stay informed , and happy trading !