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November 14, 2025 37 mins

Terrin Waack and Tori McElhaney welcome back Will McFadden to break down the Atlanta Falcons current situation ahead of a rematch with the Carolina Panthers. From the playoff picture to stopping Rico Dowdle to how Michael Penix Jr. has been playing lately, they cover everything you need to know before kickoff.

0:00 - Intro & Question of the Day
3:51 - Setting the stage for Week 11
11:00 - Quarterback convo
22:25 - NFC Landscape & Playoff Picture
27:00 - Rookie class shoutout
35:30 - Outro

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Transcript

Episode Transcript

Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Kind of like a eighty five Will.

Speaker 2 (00:04):
Let me get the old vocal cords, like ready to.

Speaker 1 (00:07):
Go, Will's back. We're ending on a positive note.

Speaker 3 (00:12):
Happy Friday Falcons fans, Welcome back to the Friday five.
I'm your host, Will McFadden. I'm joined by Tory mcaleney
and Taron Walk. I really want to thank you guys
for filling in for the last two shows while I
was out on little mini paternity leave. We welcomed our
second son to the family, and I think you guys
did an amazing job. So honestly, I have I feel
like big shoes to fill t c these.

Speaker 1 (00:37):
You know, and a half or eight depending on the shoe.

Speaker 3 (00:41):
Honestly, like I I can't film because you did such
a great job, Tarreen. Honestly like I enjoyed listening to
the show on more than I do when I'm on it,
so we gotta figure that out. I gotta step my
game up, but really really appreciate you doing that, and
I hope everybody enjoyed listening to Taran and Torre already
kind of iso without me, But I'm back, so you

(01:03):
guys got to deal with me, and We've got an
awesome show. Kind of talking about where the Falcons go after,
you know, in the midst of their four game losing streak.
A rematch on tap. But as always, we're going to
start with our social question of the day, which we
have no pre knowledge of, so we're about to see
it all live. If you're watching on our YouTube channel,
please check out look at our lower third that we're

(01:25):
about to get and I'm going to read it out
for our listening audience here, So let's go give it
to us, Jared, all right, which is closest to midnight?
Is it A twelve oh one pm, B eleven fifty
seven am, C twelve oh four am or D eleven
fifty four PM, three two one D D No, No, no,

(01:49):
it's nice.

Speaker 1 (01:49):
See it's s it's e Yeah, it is easy because
it's sad. Yeah, okay, four man, I could.

Speaker 2 (01:56):
Not I know, okay, Yeah, so that's tough, all right.

Speaker 3 (02:00):
Yeah, I have never seen that before. That was apparently is.

Speaker 4 (02:04):
It like I'm not on that side of social media?
Apparently I'm on I watch a lot of cop uh
like pulling people over, like dash cam bodycam footage. That's
that's what I fall asleep to. Yeah, would yeah, no, No,
it's just like it's all my TikTok. And so I
watched like careful what you say more?

Speaker 1 (02:23):
No, I know.

Speaker 2 (02:24):
I watch these.

Speaker 4 (02:24):
People get arrested and they're really like dumb people getting
arrested and it's like they're either drunk or they don't
think they did anything wrong.

Speaker 3 (02:32):
And so what would be your go to move now
with all of the footage you watched of like, if
you had to you had the White Broncos situation, would
you make it out alt?

Speaker 4 (02:40):
Like?

Speaker 3 (02:41):
Would you escape?

Speaker 2 (02:42):
I know because I am a rule follower through and
through she cry, I would cry. I would burst into tears.

Speaker 1 (02:48):
No lights are on, instant.

Speaker 2 (02:50):
Tears like there would be no stopping.

Speaker 1 (02:52):
It's not even her being pulled overry. It's literally two
people in front of me.

Speaker 3 (02:55):
And I'm sobbing because I have you gotten out of
a ticket with that move?

Speaker 2 (02:58):
No?

Speaker 4 (02:59):
But I also haven't like been like pulled over in
like I've gotten one one one speeding ticket in my life,
and I was I feel bad. I still feel bad.

Speaker 2 (03:09):
To that cop because I was a little bit of
a pest because I was like, I have to get
where I'm going, leave me alone.

Speaker 3 (03:15):
I was only going a little over Terran. You seem
pretty confident in your answer.

Speaker 1 (03:21):
Quickly about midnight.

Speaker 3 (03:22):
Yeah, there's math genius over there.

Speaker 1 (03:24):
Yeah, and I know my midnight hours is it?

Speaker 3 (03:28):
You were born in the darkness.

Speaker 1 (03:30):
I am darkness. Actually, I have no idea when I
was born. Really.

Speaker 4 (03:34):
I was born at twelve twelve am, twelve minutes from
midnight exactly.

Speaker 1 (03:40):
We are getting off the rail a little bit, all right,
I was Taran is kicking in.

Speaker 3 (03:45):
Well, it's you know, it's a little bit close to
midnight for the Falcons here. You know, they're sitting at
three and six. They've got to figure out ways to
kind of get back on track, and it starts this
Sunday against Carolina Arran. I've been out, you know, I
had some things going on in my person, so I
haven't kept track with the Carolina Panthers. I know that
they've kind of exceeded maybe their preseason expectations, But what's

(04:06):
up with the with Carolina right now?

Speaker 1 (04:09):
The vibe change from the first time the Falcons placed
the Panthers to now is very different. The Panthers were
zero and two entering their Week three game against the Falcons.
As we all know, the Falcons lost that game thirty
to zero, which put the Panthers at one in two
math with me here. The Panthers dropped their next game
to the Patriots, but then went on a three game
winning streak, something the Falcons have been only able to
do this season. And since they beat the Falcons the Falcone,

(04:32):
the Panthers have gone four and three. So now they're
five and five, and I don't think people expected that
three game winning streak specifically, but a big highlight of
the Panthers, especially since Week three, because I don't think
he was a huge factor in that game, is their
running back Ricodowdele Yeah.

Speaker 3 (04:50):
Tory, I mean when obviously the presence of Rico doubtle
kind of has changed things. I think for a little bit.
They've become such a run oriented team, has had some,
you know, issues with their run defense recently. How much
do you expect Rico to be a factor or something.

Speaker 4 (05:05):
I do think he will be a factor this this
coming weekend, more way more so than we saw him
I think the first time around, just because I think
they've really figured something out with him and what he
is able to do. I know, he's third in the
NFL with seven hundred and eighty eight rushing yards, good
for seventy eight point eight yards per game. It's it's

(05:26):
honestly one of those things where in terms of what
the Carolina Panthers have found in him, I think it's
a diamond in the rough situation that has happened organic
organically as they've figured out what they want to do offensively,
and he's doing some really good things and it's almost
like he was in He's been in that conversation with
Bijon Robinson. You know at that time that Bajon was

(05:47):
ascending and now since then, the Falcons run game has.

Speaker 2 (05:50):
Pitter pattered out.

Speaker 4 (05:52):
But what Rico Daldell is still doing is I think
he's he's right on par with with some of the
best in the league at the position.

Speaker 3 (06:00):
Yeah, the explosiveness really jumps out turn.

Speaker 1 (06:02):
Yeah, Tory kind of hit on the stats when it
came to what Dowdell is doing. He's seventh overall in
yards from scrimmage, averaging one hundred and ten point four
yards per game. He has scored six touchdowns, five rushing,
one receiving, So he's kind of a threat in both
fat sets of the game.

Speaker 3 (06:17):
Yeah, it's going to be you know, the Falcons had
a great matchup with the Colts and that was Jonathan
Taylor John Robinson. This is another one where it's like
two really really good running backs. And I think we
look at the NFL such a pass happy league right now,
but when you have players that can do it all
and are as versatile as these two guys and explosive
on the ground, and that is the thing. I think.
Rico Daddle has been so explosive for the Carolina Panthers

(06:40):
that you feel like any given play they have the
chance to go to the distance. But as much as
you know, he changes things for Carolina, I look at
this game as really about Atlanta. Yeah, that first loss,
it was kind of all Atlanta, like they couldn't get
out of their own way, So tory. When you're kind
of looking at this game, how much is it on
Atlanta and how much is it matching up against Carolina.

Speaker 4 (07:03):
I mean, I think that to your point, I agree
with you, it's all in Atlanta. And I'm going to
make it really simple for everybody. The Falcons have to
win this game. There's no way around it, there's no
way to overlook it. We'll get into playoff predictions and
percentages and what needs to happen down the stretch and
all that later in the show. But I actually thought,

(07:24):
what Caden Ellis said in the postgame locker room in
Germany is where this team is right now and where
your mindset has to be going into this Carolina Panthers game,
regardless of what Carolina throws at you to your point
or runs at you or runs at you either one.
But he was talking about how essentially the Falcons have
been so close in their last two games, especially against

(07:47):
the Patriots and the Colts, which is great. You get
the sentiment, you understand, yes you are close. They lost
by one because of a missed extra point and then
you lose an overtime in Germany to the Colts, and
so yes, I agree those games do show a team
that's close to figuring it out. But and this is
what Kayden Ellis said after the loss in Germany, you can't.

Speaker 2 (08:08):
Just be close anymore when you've lost six games.

Speaker 4 (08:12):
And I think that's where you go into this game,
is like, no longer can being close be acceptable. You
have to start stacking wins. And it literally starts this
Sunday against an NFC South team that absolutely put it
to you in week three, and I mean, you need
redemption in more ways than one, and it has to
start now.

Speaker 3 (08:32):
Yeah, it absolutely does. I think there's there are a
lot of ways in which this matchup favors Atlanta, but
there are also some ways in which Carolina has shown
some real growth and that they have gotten better. And
it's going to be a game where I think Atlanta
needs to come out and play sharp. I think if
they play the way that they did against New England
and Innneapolis like they should be able to take care

(08:55):
of business at home. I do think Atlanta is a
very talented team that can play as well as anybody.
We saw him Beatuffalo, we saw him kind of roll
over Washington like Washington is a good team as well.
So Taren, can you like, let's dig into some of
these matchups here a little bit.

Speaker 1 (09:10):
Yeah, before we do that, something Tory said kind of
triggered a memory just from this week alone, before all
the prep and things like that, this phrase of over
the hump, because Kayden Nellis said it in the full quote,
and then I know, I think Zach Robinson said it, Jeff, Yeah,
Drake did in the postgame locker room. But I'm talking
about like this week, not even just immediate emotions after

(09:31):
that lost to the Colts. This week, it's the coaches
are saying it, the players are saying And I think
about how I talked to Kirk Cousins about the twenty
twelve Washington team that went three and six and then
went on a run to make it to the playoffs.
He started talking about the present day Falcons in a
sense that, look, we just have to get over the hump,

(09:52):
like we're very close. But in the NFL being close
doesn't matter. But the one thing you can like kind
of hold on to is that as soon as you
tip the scale, you can go on a run. So
close is good still, even if it doesn't show on
the record.

Speaker 3 (10:06):
Does it feel like this team is once they kind
of figure out that mix, that that chemistry and it clicks,
does it feel like they're they're primed to go on
that run to you, guys, I.

Speaker 4 (10:17):
Do think that defensively, you do pose a very good
opportunity that if your offensive, if your offense can figure.

Speaker 3 (10:22):
It out, that defense keeps them is keeping them in
every game, in.

Speaker 4 (10:26):
Every single game. So I'm not worried about the defense
I do think that there are a lot of offensive
issues at play here that in order for the Falcons
to get where they want to go and ultimately be
a team that isn't just close enough but they are
surpassing other teams and winning games until they get some
of these issues on offense figured out, until they start

(10:48):
cleaning some things up, like we're going to continue to
have the same conversation about who they are and what
they are.

Speaker 1 (10:53):
Yeah, and now I can get us back on track.
But Tory, as you said, Sunday's game is a must
win for the Falcons. Her usual lot of that responsibility
falls on the quarterback. You were just saying how the offense,
especially in Atlanta, needs to figure things out. Well, both
the Falcons and the Panthers have relatively young quarterbacks. I mean,
Michael Pennock Junior's twenty five. He was the falcons number

(11:13):
eight draft pick last year. Bryce Young is twenty four,
but he was the Panthers number one overall draft pick
two years ago. So Young has an extra year in
the league. But you can kind of take both their
careers already. And I hate the word compare in this league,
and now I sound like a coach.

Speaker 2 (11:32):
But you can they run parallel with each other.

Speaker 1 (11:35):
Kind of like e eighty five yeah North.

Speaker 5 (11:38):
And so yeah, okay, which they wrote about anyways, But
for both of y'all, like, how do you look at
these two quarterbacks and what they mean for not only
this matchup but the NFC South.

Speaker 1 (11:53):
So I think that you.

Speaker 4 (11:54):
Actually wrote about this very early on in the season,
probably like when we were going into Week three, about
how these two quarterbacks are the NFC South as it
stands right now and are planning to both organizations are
positioning them to continue to be the guys of the
NFC South moving forward. We don't know what's going to
happen with Baker Mayfield. Even though Baker Mayfield is playing
out of his mind in Tampa Bay right now. Heck,

(12:15):
he could play out of his mind for another five
or six years, who knows, But you know he is
on the older side of quarterbacks in the league. You
also know that the Saints are doing whatever the heck
they're doing down in New Orleans with their quarterback situation.

Speaker 2 (12:30):
Nobody knows.

Speaker 4 (12:31):
And then you have Bryce Young and Michael Pennock Junior,
both both individuals who you use a first round draft
pick on you really want to see develop into your
franchise guy. So I think they you make a good
point about where things stand with both organizations.

Speaker 3 (12:49):
Yeah, And I think if you look at kind of
the way that Michael Pennox and Bryce Young both play,
they they are the similarities of where they are in
their careers in this respective time and kind of what
they mean to both franchise looking to the future of
their offense and trying to build around him. But like stylistically,
I see very different players, right, Like when you look
at Bryce Young, I think the guys that kind of

(13:09):
come to mind are more that Tua Derek Carr get
it out of their hands, They're going to throw it
a little bit shorter and kind of like allow the
players around and to make those plays. Whereas the best
case scenario for Michael Pennock Junior is that he is
such a factor with what he is able to do
when he is launching the ball and then the way
he's getting.

Speaker 4 (13:27):
Right a ceiling of like Matthew Stafford.

Speaker 3 (13:29):
Right, yeah, exactly, And it's kind of like just that
ability alone to throw the ball, the threat of being
able to push it down the field should hopefully open
things up. So you see where just the player themselves,
whether they're on or not, their presence kind of changes
the defense and the and I think we're already kind
of seeing some of that respect Like that was one
of the first things that jumped out to me kind

(13:50):
of in Week one against Tampa early in the season.
It was like, Wow, these defenses are already showing Michael
Pennock Junior a lot of respects.

Speaker 2 (13:57):
Yeah, no, you're You're absolutely right.

Speaker 4 (13:58):
And I think when I look at this matchup and
going into this specific games game, I do think that
we do need to talk about Michael Penicks and how
much heat I feel like is on him right now,
specifically coming question. Yeah, a lot of aulback questions about
Michael Penicks, a lot of people on radio, on Twitter,
wherever talking about Michael Penick's development. And I think we

(14:19):
have to remember that this is a guy who's eleven
starts into his career. We knew this was gonna happen,
Like we knew there were going to be growing pains,
and I think a lot of growing pains can actually
be seen in a lot of third and long situations.
I spent so much time this week looking at every
single Atlanta Falcon's third down appearance over the course of

(14:42):
this season so far, and I actually learned a lot
about some key trends and issues that they're seeing on
third down, and one of them is that Michael Penis
has a level of inaccuracy on third down and he's
trying to push the ball downfield, which in and of
itself isn't a bad thing that you're wanting to push
the ball downfield, but in a situation where you.

Speaker 6 (15:01):
Already have a low probability ball i e. The deep
ball and a low probability play I eat a third
and long situation, it makes it really difficult to overlook that.
So please go read that.

Speaker 3 (15:13):
Well can I I want to, But yeah, go read that.

Speaker 4 (15:17):
Please don't read that, because I spend a lot of
time on it, and I really do think that it
showcases a lot of kind of some of the main
trends that we're seeing the Falcons mess up, deploy, overlook
potentially on third down specifically.

Speaker 1 (15:30):
And we'll answer a lot of your questions, yeah, I hope.

Speaker 3 (15:32):
So anyways, Yeah, definitely, But to that point, like when
you look at the third down specifically, because it feels
like those are the opportunities where Michael is looking for
shots down the field and throwing it deep. So I
was just kind of curious. Next gen stats. He is
third in air yards to the sticks metric, which is
kind of a positive minus metric. It's how far beyond

(15:53):
the sticks on third down are you throwing ball? Or
how far in front of the sticks on third down? Right?
Are you going to try to gain that first down
with your arm or somebody run and do it. He's
third among quarterbacks with at least two hundred dropbacks so
far this season at like three point one yards, so
he's throwing it past the first down marker a lot
on third down. But this is kind of the other
metric that pairs with that is he has the lowest

(16:14):
short of the six throws on third down. So on
the one hand, that's a benefit, that is a positive
thing if that is your mentality of, Hey, if we
catch this ball, I deliver this ball, it's going to
be a first down. I don't even want to give
the defense a chance to rally and make the tackle
or anything like, let's put it on us, right. But
on the other hand, you may want to say, let's

(16:35):
take the easier completion, let's keep this drive alive. Is
that something you would like to see terarn a little
bit more on Sunday of like get it to Bajon,
get it to Kyle, allow them to make those plays
when it's there. Do you like the mentality of the
kind of big game hunting.

Speaker 1 (16:49):
I'm going to be brutally honest here. Just convert the
third down? Yeah, Like, I don't really care how they
do it. Right now? The number zero of eight against
the Colts, that's bad. Feel like there's no other word
for it. I know we mentioned it too, or I
mentioned it to Tyler Algier post game and he goes
really yeah and was like games right, yeah, yeah. I

(17:15):
think that number speaks for itself and all you have
to do is actually convert them, like throw it, run it,
just do it, ye hike right. Yeah.

Speaker 4 (17:23):
I also think, and this is something that I wrote
about in that story, is I think that what coaches
are saying and that that there needs to be help
around Michael Pinnocks is actually very true when you go
and look at that.

Speaker 1 (17:33):
For sure.

Speaker 4 (17:34):
I think that there are some issues in protection, particularly
with this offensive I'm picking up stunts and twists. I
think that there are also some instances where, depending on
the call related to how much time Michael actually has
in the pocket, some of the routes that receivers are
running are a bit too deep considering how quickly pressure

(17:54):
is on Michael Pinnix. And then of course, you know,
you always have kind of like your check down to
Bajon for example, but if they're in man coverage, a
lot of times that check down is pretty covered up.
So there are a few different times over the course
of these third and long situations where Michael Pennocks is
under pressure, his receivers are downfield, but no one's looking back,
no one's even close to making a move back to

(18:14):
him or even turning around, and his checkdown is covered up,
and then it's just a recipe for not success.

Speaker 1 (18:20):
I'm really glad you brought that up because the press
conferences this week have been pretty heavy in a sense
of like, Michael Pennock Junior is really hard on himself.
Raheem Morris talked about it, Zach Robbins had talked about it,
Michael himself talked about it, and it just felt like
this young quarterback, which we've already talked about how he's
only in is what eleventh or eleven start is putting

(18:43):
so much pressure on himself. And it's one thing when
your coaches say it. It's another thing when your teammates
say it. But to have like you say it, like
they got to help him out, like it's it's a
third party and whatever the quote is from She's the.

Speaker 2 (18:56):
Man, right.

Speaker 4 (18:59):
It's one of those things where you look, I mean,
you don't have to look very far, look at all
the third and long situations, and you'll see issues at
every single level of this offense. And then you know,
I think in terms that I understand why people put
a lot of pressure, put a lot of heat on
the quarterback. It's it is the hardest position to play
in I think almost all of sports.

Speaker 2 (19:18):
I would not want to play quarterback, point blank.

Speaker 1 (19:20):
Period.

Speaker 4 (19:21):
But something that I want people to remember is Michael
Pennocks's numbers so far through this season. So eight starts
through twenty twenty five are not far off from someone
who in two thousand and eight won the Offensive Rookie
of the Year award, and that was Matt Ryan. I
went back and I wanted to see how far off

(19:42):
Michael Pennocks is comparatively speaking to where Matt Ryan was
in his I love that in his like thank you
in his rookie true rookie season. Because, as they'll know
if you have been listening to this podcast, I don't
consider Mike's three starts in twenty twenty four to like
really truly count towards what we can expect from him
and his development, because I think the situation that he

(20:02):
was entering into not having worked as the starter for
the entirety of the whole time he had been there, Like,
I don't count those.

Speaker 2 (20:09):
This right here is the bulk.

Speaker 4 (20:11):
So I went back and I looked at what Matt
Ryan was doing, and I thought it was interesting because
Matt Ryan had three four hundred and forty passing yards,
he had sixteen touchdowns, eleven interceptions, and an eighty seven
point seven passer rating through eight games in twenty twenty five.
Mike has eighteen hundred and seven passing yards on trajectory
to be around where Matt was at the end of

(20:33):
two thousand and eight, Mike has thrown nine touchdowns only
three interceptions, was technically as better numbers than what Matt
put up in his rookie season, and Mike has an
eighty six point eight passer rating, very close to Matt Ryans.
I know all of this because again, Matt Ryan was
named the Offensive Rookie of the Year that year after
the Falcons went eleven and five, they won a lot

(20:54):
of games, made it to the playoffs, and I think
that's the difference the team was winning with Matt at
the time.

Speaker 2 (21:00):
So I would.

Speaker 4 (21:01):
Argue that potentially the ire wouldn't be as hot, the
seat wouldn't be as hot on Mike if the Falcons
as a collective unit we're putting together wins. Yes, Michael
Penis needs to be up to be better in certain situations, like, yes,
he needs to develop. All of those things are one
hundred percent true. But I don't want people to move

(21:24):
the goalpost on Michael Pinnix because let's be real, you're
mad at the coaches right now.

Speaker 3 (21:30):
Yeah, it's totally. I think it's fair because, like, there
are plenty of times where I it feels like watching
the game, you're just like, oh man, this may not
be the best performance from Michael Pennocks, and then you
kind of look at the box score you want and
you're like, well, he's got one hundred and seventy two
yards at halftime. You know, he's got a touchdown pass,
he's got whatever. And it's like the way that it
looks doesn't always match up maybe with the final numbers,

(21:50):
but there's a lot to that. And I think that
the Carolina game, also the first time around, just the
way that he performed kind of stuck in a lot
of people's minds, and maybe that is something that they
just draw on when thinking about his play. Unfairly maybe,
but like it is fair because he showed it out there.
So now he has the chance to kind of redeem
himself on Sunday and put together a really good rebound performance,

(22:13):
and I expect him to do that. But let's really
quickly kind of pivot and talk about what the Falcons
stand to gain on Sunday with a win, or you know,
would they drop out of the playoff landscape. So, Taren,
what does the playoff landscape look like in the NFC
at this point in time?

Speaker 2 (22:27):
Give us the lay of the land.

Speaker 1 (22:29):
Oh, speaking of the lay of the land, I'm going
to address the NFC like a compass. Oh, never eat
Soggi waffles. Okay, The Lions lead the North, the Eagles
lead the East. The Buccaneers lead the South and the
Seahawks lead the West. Okay, those are your leaders. The
wild guard picture includes the Rams, Bears and Packers. The
forty nine Ers, Panthers, and Vikings are the top NFC

(22:50):
bubble teams like right outside looking in, and when you
look at the NFC South specifically, because that's what matters
most of the Falcons right now, Bucks, as we know, lead, Panthers,
as I already said, second, the Falcons are third with
their three and six record. The Saints are fourth with
the two and eight record. Low key closing in or
the Falcons are falling back, but those records are getting

(23:10):
closer and closer to each other each time we share
this little update.

Speaker 2 (23:14):
Yeah, that's true.

Speaker 1 (23:15):
So when we talk about the Falcons and Panthers game
in Week three, no other NFC South teams had played
each other at that point, just the Falcons and the Buccaneers.
Like the Falcons were two games into the NFC schedule
and no one else had played each other. But with
the greater sampler size sample size, here's all the divisional records.
Bucks two and oh, Panthers one and one, Falcons zero two,

(23:36):
Saints one and one. The Falcons have the worst NFC
South record right now.

Speaker 3 (23:40):
Well, you know they they can change that in the
next two weeks because they've got the Panthers and the Saints,
you know, on tap. So this this stretch is very important.
You gave us the lay of the land, Torri, how
do they navigate it?

Speaker 2 (23:52):
Yeah, So let me get the old vocal cords, like, ready.

Speaker 1 (23:57):
To go my favorite thing and talk about numbers.

Speaker 2 (24:01):
I'm about to go on a monologue.

Speaker 3 (24:03):
Right the light. Let's let's put the studio spylight on touring.

Speaker 1 (24:07):
That was so sweet, Dan, I'm ready for the numbers.

Speaker 2 (24:09):
All right, here we go.

Speaker 4 (24:10):
So looking at the New York Times Playoff simulator, which
is a great tool. I think everyone should go and
check it out. It's very helpful, I think even for
us too, as we're trying to figure out how lay information.
The Falcons have just a five percent chance to make
the playoffs right now as everything stands with them being
three and six. If they go four and four the
rest of the way, even with wins against all three

(24:33):
NFC South opponents, that's not going to be enough. Given
the current trends of how things are looking. That would
put them at seven and ten on the year and
with less than a one percent shot at the postseason.
So that's that's if you lose all of your non
NFC South remaining games, that's that's where we're at. If
you add wins to that, however, over the Jets and

(24:55):
the Cardinals, the record will jump to nine and eight,
but it'll only get to get you to about a
thirty thirty two percent chance of making the postseason, so again,
still not good enough.

Speaker 2 (25:08):
The real needle movers.

Speaker 4 (25:09):
For you is the Rams game and in the Seahawks game.
So let's say the Falcons win nearly all of the
games I have previously mentioned. If you lose to both
the Rams and the Seahawks and still win those other games,
you're done, which is like, that's that's why them being
three and six right now is a real It's not

(25:31):
a death sentence, but it's not good. Split the Rams
and the Seahawks beat everybody else, you climb to about
eighty three percent chance. But all of this ultimately means that, yes,
the Falcons have to win and continue to win and
continue to win some more in order.

Speaker 2 (25:50):
To keep hopes alive. You're to that point in the season.

Speaker 3 (25:52):
Yeah, the wild card picture is not a friendly one
for Atlanta at this point in time. I mean, the
NFC is I think better than the AFC. Point Like,
the AFC has been a stronger conference a lot due
to the quarterback play in that conference, But I think
this year the NFC has been awesome. Yeah, and that's
where it may come down to. Its still the division
being in play. Like Tampa Bay losing last week, Carolina

(26:15):
losing last week, that helps, and Tampa's dealing with some injuries.
If those kind of ultimately creep up and hamper them
down the stretch when they have a tougher schedule, then
maybe the division is still in play for Atlanta and
that is always going to be their best right path
to the playoffs.

Speaker 2 (26:31):
Yeah, it's the easiest one in theory.

Speaker 3 (26:33):
Yeah. Anything else that we want to touch on with
the Carolina Panthers game in particular before we kind of
pivot to our final topic.

Speaker 2 (26:40):
You gotta win it.

Speaker 4 (26:41):
I have nothing else to say but that if you
do not win again, it goes back to my main point,
like if you do not win that game, Like I'm
not saying your season is done, but it's it's a
it's getting to the point of being on ice.

Speaker 1 (26:53):
I think she covered it all.

Speaker 3 (26:55):
Right. Well, then let's let's move on to our final
topic for today's show. Just want to kind of give
a little bit of a shout out to the rookie class.
They're doing well, if they're doing amazing, Like this is
kind of the group that we when we were sitting
here kind of reflecting on the draft at the end
of April and looking at the hall, it was like,
all right, well, we know what we hope they can be,

(27:17):
but can they become that? And I kind of feel
like they are right now on the closer end of
like the top level of what we should have expected
from them.

Speaker 1 (27:25):
Yeah.

Speaker 4 (27:25):
Well, we said going into the draft the Falcons needed
four five defensive starters yep out of the draft class
in order to feel good about where you were in
terms of your depth and talent defensively, and they absolutely
found that.

Speaker 3 (27:41):
Yeah, So, Terry, you want to catch us up on
how well they have performed this year.

Speaker 1 (27:45):
Yes. Ed rusher Jalen Walker, who's drafted fifteenth overall. He
has played in seven games, made twenty five tackles for sacks,
two force fumbles, one fumbel recovery, and one pass breakup.

Speaker 4 (27:55):
He's playing very well right now since coming back from
that groin injury that I think kind of lingered for
him a bit, and I love watching him play, but
I also love watching him play with James Pierce Junior.

Speaker 1 (28:09):
Well, speaking of funny, you should mention the addresser. James
Pierce Junior was drafted twenty sixth overall. Has played in
nine games. He has made nine tackles, one and a
half sacks, one forced fumble, fumble recovery, and pass breakup.
Oh okay, I.

Speaker 2 (28:24):
Can get I give a little tidbit. I just wanted
to say that about Jayleen Godogs.

Speaker 1 (28:30):
You know, rewind quickto Jalen. He did win Rookie of
the Week honor last week from PEPSI. We're going to
say arrival, arrival, arrival.

Speaker 3 (28:40):
Since we're playing Carolina this week, can we not mention
their names? Yeah, let's keep that attdge friendly.

Speaker 1 (28:48):
We are Coca Cola Carolina things. Oh yeah, yeah, okay.
Xavier Watts drafted and drafted close, drafted in the third round.
Nine starts in nine games, so he's the only rookie
as start every game. He's played in fifty six tackles,
two interceptions, four pass breakups. He won NFL Rookie of
the Month for September. No sponsor involved. Billy Bowman, junior,

(29:10):
fourth round pick, one start in five games, twenty two tackles,
half a sack, one interception, one force fumble, two pass breakups.
Want to give him a little shout out right now, though,
because safety Jesse Bates the third, a veteran and captain,
named Billy as someone who has kind of like surprisingly
stepped up during this tough skid and been vocal.

Speaker 3 (29:31):
Interesting.

Speaker 1 (29:31):
I love that, especially today.

Speaker 4 (29:33):
Yeah, it's especially considering that Billy missed four games coming
out of the bye because of a hamstring injury.

Speaker 1 (29:38):
Apparently the hamstring injury has given him like perspective. Oh
and I was like, oh, go Billy, go Billy.

Speaker 3 (29:43):
Yeah. I feel like Grady Jarrett said the same kind
of thing when he missed time. It's like, you do
get that chance to sip back. It's a little bit
like listening to the last couple of shows with you two.
I will cycle man. Wow. Yeah, I'm seeing things from
a new light. Yeah. But the Billy thing is awesome.
It helps, I think make clear why exactly they identified

(30:04):
these four guys as the ones that wanted to bring in. Jalen.
Walker has also been getting a lot of praise from
the coaching staff this week about his leadership, which was
something obviously we talked about in the draft process, but
to see it here in Atlanta, coming to Fruition is
really exciting. But I know a lot of people also
were scratching their head worried about the moving up to
go get James Pierce Junior again giving up next year's

(30:26):
first round pick. At this point, I kind of feel
like it was a pretty good goal.

Speaker 2 (30:30):
I mean, I I do too.

Speaker 4 (30:31):
I thought that it was a good move at the
time too. I didn't understand the overwhelming anger anger.

Speaker 3 (30:39):
Yeah, kind of consensus was like this was a bad.

Speaker 2 (30:41):
Move, right, this is a bad move. It was bad trade.

Speaker 4 (30:43):
It didn't it doesn't make any sense, Like why James
Pearce Junior. It was all of that, And I think, like,
but I I'm sitting here right now kind of feeling.

Speaker 1 (30:51):
Like, Okay, you got your past right.

Speaker 2 (30:54):
Well that's the thing is, like.

Speaker 4 (30:57):
I understand like that the team doesn't have a first
round draft pick next year.

Speaker 2 (31:01):
I you know, I think, honestly, I think it's okay.

Speaker 4 (31:05):
I also think that's okay too, because I don't think
that you're gonna see a team that's gonna give up
down the stretch to like potentially have a higher draft pick.
It doesn't matter for the Falcons. It's like, yeah, you
need to. I think you'll see a team that's fighting
to the finish.

Speaker 2 (31:21):
I don't think that. I don't know if that will
amount to wins.

Speaker 4 (31:25):
I will say that, but this defense is gonna at
least do enough to keep you in games, and James
Pierce Junior is a.

Speaker 2 (31:31):
Part of that.

Speaker 4 (31:33):
I still believe that the twenty twenty five draft class
is one of the best draft classes of Terry font
Knows's career as a GM here in Atlanta.

Speaker 2 (31:40):
I think that that.

Speaker 4 (31:41):
Is a number one, and I think it's a very
easy number one. I know people are mad about again
not having it, But what if you didn't have James
Bruce Junior, Like, what if you went into twenty twenty
six with a first round pick and got something someone
who didn't amount to much. Meanwhile, you have You see,
right now, the evidence is in front of you what

(32:02):
James Pearce Junior is doing for you.

Speaker 2 (32:04):
He's producing for you.

Speaker 4 (32:05):
You have two edge rushers that in back to back
weeks have made game changing plays.

Speaker 3 (32:11):
So I think about what you just said, old, right,
think about what you just said. You have two edge rushers,
two of them, not just one two right, two, You
have made game changing plays in back to back weeks.

Speaker 2 (32:21):
Right, correct.

Speaker 4 (32:22):
And I'd argue, if the Falcons got Jay Walk and JPJ.

Speaker 3 (32:27):
In Jaywalk, we're already Yeah.

Speaker 4 (32:29):
I think of my dad, Jeffrey Walk shut out to
the og J Walk right. Yeah, But no, I said,
I think if like you would have gotten Jalen Walker
and James Pearce Junior in back to back drafts instead
of the like, then I don't think I think people
would have said had nothing to say about that. I
think people would have been pumped about that, the fact that, like,

(32:50):
so you got them in one Like again, you're using
a future first round pick now because you believe at
the time of drafting that this was a team that
was ready to win. Now obviously they haven't won a
game in four weeks, so like, I get that kind
of goes out the window a little bit. Like does
it suck to to not have a first round draft

(33:10):
pick next year? Yes, of course I have to do
mock drafts. I'm gonna hate not being able.

Speaker 2 (33:14):
To talk about the Falcons that your weeks and weeks.

Speaker 4 (33:17):
But I also think it would suck not having James
Pierce Junior on this roster, so you can't have it all.
And I do believe the Falcons did what they thought
was best to win at now. It's not James for
Pierce Junior's fault that the Falcons aren't winning right now.

Speaker 3 (33:33):
No, the defense is keeping them in games. Like we
talked about it, the story.

Speaker 1 (33:39):
Has been holding that in. It seems like she was like,
let me get up on this box and preach why
JPJ should be here.

Speaker 4 (33:46):
I'm I will not hear any more about the JPJ
trade slander.

Speaker 2 (33:51):
I will not hear it.

Speaker 3 (33:52):
The other reason why I think it's just impactful, right
is when you look at we talked a lot last
year after kind of Michael Pennick Junior's three games and
what he accomplished with Bajan and Drake, and the window
for Atlanta's like offense on these rookie contracts, well, that
window is naturally going to be closing over the next
couple of years as the rookie contracts come to an end. However,

(34:15):
it didn't take you four drafts to kind of compile
this young talent on the defensive side of the ball.
You got that in one hit. So now when you
look at kind of the offseason and contracts and salary
cap and everything, like, I think there's such a benefit
in having these four guys at key positions on your
defense on rookie contracts. And we talked about that first

(34:35):
round pick. Two of them have that fifth year option,
and they're the two most valuable positions on the defensive
side of the ball. So I think that this rookie
class on defense is truly special. I don't want to
lose sight of that, even though again they're in the
mids half four game losing streak. Like, we can be
able to do both. We can all contain multitudes, we

(34:55):
can be better, and we can say, yes, they got
to be better on the field, and yeah, this class
is kicking button.

Speaker 4 (35:01):
That's the thing is, I think like everybody works in
these absolutes, and like, I don't really feel like there
are absolutes. I think that there are two sides to
every coin. I think that two things can be true
at the same time, and this is like this conversation
is an epitome of that.

Speaker 3 (35:14):
Yeah, this well's back.

Speaker 1 (35:15):
We're ending on a positive note.

Speaker 3 (35:18):
There we go, bringing the optimism back. But yeah, let's
let's go ahead and wrap it there. Everybody please check
out the pregame show on YouTube. It goes up an
hour before kickoff. Kickoff is at one pm inside of
Mercedes Benz Stadium. The Falcons will try to avenge. They're
thirty to nothing lost and they they gotta do it right.
It is crunch time here. We are already at that

(35:39):
that point of the season, So open it up. Any
final things to say before we get out of here.

Speaker 2 (35:45):
Taren Tarn is running a marathon.

Speaker 1 (35:47):
Oh yeah, yeah.

Speaker 2 (35:48):
Terren's running a marathon.

Speaker 4 (35:49):
So everyone cheer Terran, aren't because it's she's been training
a lot for this. She even trained while we were
in Germany.

Speaker 1 (35:55):
I ran nine miles in Berlin.

Speaker 4 (35:57):
Yeah, but then then we did a hold.

Speaker 3 (36:00):
Or kilometers miles?

Speaker 1 (36:05):
This is my homeland, I don't know America.

Speaker 3 (36:08):
Kilometers is that though?

Speaker 1 (36:10):
I don't know how to change my settings on my garment.
But how many ten k is? Six miles?

Speaker 3 (36:18):
Five? All right?

Speaker 1 (36:20):
About thirteen six seventy nine, so it's about thirteen K.

Speaker 3 (36:23):
There you go. Okay, thirteen k, Well that is what
our show.

Speaker 1 (36:26):
You're wrong.

Speaker 3 (36:27):
Someone's gonna be like, no, it's not.

Speaker 1 (36:29):
We learned Tory and I aren't good at math. We're
on the spot. No we're not. I need pen and paper.

Speaker 3 (36:34):
Well then yeah, let's go ahead and not do any
more math on this show. But thank you guys so
much for listening. Please spread the word, like subscribe to
all of that, and we will see you after the
game four Falcons final whistle. We'll see you next week
Falcons Audible and Friday five one more time. So until then, everybody,
take care
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