August 13, 2025 • 48 mins
Who are the biggest players in the autonomous vehicle (AV) market? Let's find out.
In this exciting episode of the Ground Transportation Podcast, Ken Lucci, Chief Business Analyst of Driving Transactions, shares research he has surfaced from secondary sources like Goldman Sachs, Bloomberg, and other business analysts, connecting dots for owners and operators on the verge of offering Autonomous Livery services.
Ken provides compelling insights about the projected growth of AV robo-taxis, notable partnerships like Uber-Lucid-Nuro, safety concerns, regulatory hurdles, and the evolving business models that will shape the future of ground transportation. This episode also shines a light on AV pilot programs in cities like Jacksonville and universities like the University of Mississippi. Tune in to stay informed and learn how forward-thinking operators can prepare for this industry shift.
CHAPTERS:
00:00 Welcome
01:21 Autonomous Vehicles
03:03 Goldman Sachs Report
06:34 From Horsepower to Brainpower
09:29 Waymo
11:46 Zoox
12:47 Tesla
14:44 Uber
19:13 The Bellwether
19:51 Autonomous Livery
21:38 Bentler Groups
23:47 Beep
24:30 What's Next for Autonomous?
26:22 Rising Significant Concerns
34:45 Forward Thining Operations Need to do The Following
40:03 The Impact on The Taxi Industry
Links:
Goldman Sachs: https://www.youtube.com/watch?si=XmV4IdnB-tU1-zFd&v=hiDVYhzeBYM&feature=youtu.be
Benteler: https://www.benteler.com/en/
Jacksonville news link: https://youtu.be/2kUJBZMwR2g?si=yb111dVtamxd477g
At Driving Transactions, Ken Lucci and his team offer financial analysis, KPI reviews, for specific purposes like improving profitability, enhancing the value of the enterprise business planning and buying and selling companies. So if you have any of those needs, please give us a call or check us out at www.drivingtransactions.com.
Pax Training is your all in one solution designed to elevate your team's skills, boost passenger satisfaction, and keep your business ahead of the curve. Learn more at www.paxtraining.com/gtp
Connect with Kenneth Lucci, Principle Analyst at Driving Transactions:
https://www.drivingtransactions.com/
Connect with James Blain, President at PAX Training:
https://paxtraining.com/
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Ken Lucci (00:27):
Good afternoon all and welcome to another exciting
episode of the GroundTransportation Podcast.
Now, uh, my name is Ken Lucci.
I am the Chief Business Analystof Driving Transactions.
I'm normally.
Accompanied by my lovely andtalented co-host, Mr.
(00:50):
James Blaine from Pax.
Unfortunately, you're gonna haveto put up with me.
This will be a monologue today,James is out training, a huge
group of chauffeurs, hither, andyawn in an undisclosed location
around the country.
Uh, James, I hope you're havinga fantastic day.
I want you to know.
I miss you horribly.
(01:10):
Um, I'll try not to let it shakein my voice, but this is gonna
be an interesting and excitingmonologue on one of my favorite
subjects.
Well, your favorite newssubjects.
autonomous vehicle news.
Duh.
Duck.
Duck.
Don't shut off.
This is gonna be really good.
Why do I keep bringing this up?
My business partner says lovelyand talented Cole Weber.
(01:32):
Chief.
Corporate financial analyst hereat Driving Transaction says,
I've become obsessed with avnumber one, we have now, we are
now on our third AV financialanalysis project for three
separate customers.
Two of them are, uh, doingfinancial pro forma, but p and l
(01:54):
uh, financial projections on,shuttle, vehicles.
and the third is a deployment.
Of AV vehicles in a closedcommunity setting.
And one of, one of the AVshuttles is for a vehicle
manufacturer.
The other is for a universitysystem.
And the commu closed communitysetting is actually for a
developer, right?
(02:14):
So when I see, continue, when Isee things that duplicate on
our, you know, our radar, theyare becoming relevant.
And I, I do that with data fromoperators.
Financial data, market data, etet cetera.
And in the case of autonomousvehicles, in addition to what
we're we're seeing, they're allover the news.
(02:36):
Tesla launched in Austin, uh,you know, to mix reviews, but.
I focus more on the financialnews.
So at the end this month, we hadtwo guidance reports on the
autonomous vehicle industry.
The first came outta GoldmanSachs, which we doing a deep
dive on.
And the second is MorganStanley, that I'm in the middle
(02:57):
of the Goldman Sachs report.
I also report from Goldman Sachson the China market for
autonomous vehicles, which isvoluminous.
second use of that word today.
And that'll be somethingseparate, but we are behind the
curve.
On deployments compared to Chinabecause they're building them
over there.
But Goldman Sachs issued areport on autonomous vehicles,
(03:20):
in the US and they addressed themarket for robo taxis, which is
extremely interesting.
Now at present, there are 1500vehicles operating commercially
in five cities in the UnitedStates.
Phoenix being the biggestAustin.
La San Francisco, as well as,you know, they're starting in
other cities we'll talk about,but Goldman Sachs projects that
(03:44):
the market will go from 1500vehicles to over 35,000 vehicles
across the country by 2030.
Now, that absolutely dovetailswith the news that we brought
you last week on the partnershipbetween Uber Lucent.
and Nuro where Uber hascommitted to 20,000 of those
(04:05):
vehicles.
You know, not all in the UnitedStates, but they committed to
20,000.
So this is another data point.
What's intriguing to me aboutGoldman Sachs is at that level,
AVS would be producing$7 billionin annual revenue and Capturing
roughly 8% of the existing USrideshare market.
So they're saying that 8% of theUS rideshare market is going to
(04:28):
shift from a driver on an Uber Xor driver on the one of the
other platforms to autonomous.
Okay, Right now it's less than1% of the avs are from the TNC
platforms.
Now, let me quote.
Autonomous vehicles have arrivedin both ride share and trucking.
According to Goldman Sachsresearch analyst, Mark Delaney.
(04:51):
he writes in the report, webelieve the key focus for
investors.
Is now on pace at which AVS willgrow and how big the market will
become rather than how itstechnology works.
Okay, so Mark Delaney fromGoldman Sachs.
We are big fans here at theGround Transportation Podcast.
(05:12):
Our emails have gone unanswered.
We understand that you're busy.
But we'd love to have you comeon and talk about autonomous
vehicles because after thispodcast, people are gonna be
tired of hearing my little raspyvoice.
So what's the outlook forautonomous vehicles and robo
taxis?
Goldman Sachs Research ForecastRobo Taxi Ride Share Market
implies a compounded annualgrowth rate of 93%.
(05:37):
Between now and 2030.
Now let's put that intoperspective.
If you read our finance andfuture of the chauffeur
transportation industry orattended the CD NLA Executive
Summit by the way, we're gonnahave a video of that coming out.
You know that the chauffeurindustry grows at 2.7%
compounded annual growth rate.
(05:58):
Keep in mind, we're at thebeginning of the autonomous
revolution.
Well, what does that mean?
That means by 2030, the marketwill be 7.7 billion in revenue,
and they're projecting a 40 to50% gross profit margin on those
rides.
Roughly two point, excuse me,3.5 billion by 2030.
(06:18):
You know I'm Mr.
Gross profit.
You know that I'm big on knowingall of the costs to turn the key
and do the work.
They believe that the grossmargins on that will be 40 to
50%.
Now, in addition to GoldmanSachs, Morgan Stanley just
issued a 52 page report.
On autos in the shared mobilitysector called from horsepower to
(06:42):
brainpower, how AI takes thewheel.
As AI accelerates change in theauto industry.
Now understand something.
The AI and AV space in the autoindustries, not just Robo Cab,
you know, it's me buying an AVenabled vehicle for myself.
And at the end of the day,letting Bentley my Jack Russell
(07:04):
Terrier drive home and me sit inin the passenger seat.
He's actually on my lap rightnow, but at the end of the day,
the AVS will have private use,but the Robo Taxii piece is a
completely separate part of thesector.
Morgan Stanley believes thatautonomous vehicles will be a
$200 billion market inself-driving vehicles around the
(07:26):
world by 2030.
Understand these are big globalfinancial powerhouses.
They look at the whole market.
They've identified 60stakeholder names that you must
become.
Associated with, or excuse me,you have to have'em on your
radar.
The tech people that build thetechnology, the companies that
(07:49):
are doing the robotics, theautonomous vehicles, et cetera.
Good news is we're gonna have areport.
We're gonna distill all thisstuff down and put it in my
sixth grader language.
And we will have a report foryou later on the fall in time
for the Chauffeur DrivenNational Limousine Association
Show in October in Dallas, whichtalk about a little bit later,
(08:12):
but shine up.
currently has 30,000 robo taxison the road in 10 major cities
around the country, and GoldmanSachs has a completely separate
report on that, and we'redissecting that because it's a
critically important to look atthe rest of the world.
We're behind the curve becausethey're building them over
(08:32):
there.
The tech is all over there, butwe're catching up fast.
the interesting thing about thatreport is with 30,000 robo taxis
in 10 major cities in Chinadeployed by, we ride the Uber
equivalent in China, we ridepony ai, which builds a vtech
and Apollo go, which builds thevehicles as well.
(08:56):
All of these companies withtheir 30,000 vehicles are break
even.
Either they're starting to turna profit on their fleets.
Either and their infrastructurethis year or at the latest by
mid 2026.
Think about that now, theaverage vehicle in China earns
$31,000 in revenue, a month.
Okay, so roughly a thousandbucks a day.
(09:17):
A little bit more.
So back to the us sec.
At the moment in the UnitedStates, we have three major
players in autonomous vehicles.
First Waymo, owned by Google has1500 vehicles on the road in
five cities.
and they're mapping another 10cities, including Boston, New
York, Philadelphia, and if I'mnot mistaken, they're launching
(09:39):
in Atlanta and DC uh, as wespeak.
Waymo's owned by Google.
So they have an unlimited amountof money to throw At this market
for avs, so interesting stats.
They've had 10 million paidrides completed.
They average 250,000 rides aweek, and they currently only
have 1500 vehicles now everyfive months that business
(10:01):
doubles.
Okay?
So they're expanding in 10 morecities in the United States by
2026.
They're currently mappingBoston, Philadelphia, New York,
Chicago, and Seattle.
Now they have committed another2000 vehicles are coming from
Jaguar by the end of 2025 andthey've announced a new
partnership with both Toyota andHyundai to utilize their
(10:22):
technology.
So what is this gonna look likeif you buy a Toyota?
My forerunner is gonna bereplaced with an AV vehicle at
some point, uh, they'll pry itoutta my cold dead hands'cause I
love it.
Waymo has 3,476 patents globallywith 1,898 granted here in the
(10:43):
United States, 3,199 active,whatever that means.
Now, these patents cover a Rangeof AV tech.
Okay, so what are they doing?
They're going to Toyota andHyundai and saying, look,
instead of doing what GM did,which was launch cruise and use
your own AV technology, we'regonna grant you use of our
patents.
(11:03):
but here's the thing.
We wanna use your vehicles whenyou build them because we're,
you know, kind of getting tiredof Jaguar.
That's my war.
It's not theirs, but.
They're making deals with Toyotaand Hyundai, so they're not
gonna be married specificallyand only to their first
generation level four autonomousvehicle.
(11:24):
Now, level four means, you know,it's, it's working on its own,
but the liability issues arestill with the manufacturer.
Level five is completelyautonomous, and you know that
will evolve.
So Google's Waymo's main.
competitive advantage of thosepatents.
Then we have Zoox, the secondplayer in the industry owned by
(11:46):
Amazon.
Now they only have a handful ofvehicles on the, on the road,
and they're in Las Vegas now.
They're a sleeper.
Okay.
They, if you, if you've gone toVegas last year, I saw one and I
almost spit out my Dunkin Donutscoffee.
'cause it looks like a boxyvehicle.
Literally.
It looks like a toaster, but it,it supposedly can fit, I don't
know, eight people in it.
(12:07):
Here what's going on.
they announced that they are inthe middle of building a mega
factory in California to be ableto spit out 10,000 of these
vehicles a year.
Well known.
So their strategy's been alittle bit different.
Prove it works in one place,then they're gonna massively
(12:27):
build these vehicles.
Now, I don't think they want toown the vehicles and I don't
think they wanna run thebusiness just like they Amazon
as the whole network of lastmile providers.
That's gonna be an opportunityfor fleet operators.
The third.
Player in the United States isTesla.
Tesla, robo taxis went live inAustin last month.
(12:51):
They're going live in SanFrancisco they're mapping out
several of the cities in theUnited States and they're being
seen all over Californiamapping.
Now they've been mixed reviewson Tesla autonomous rolled out
in in Austin.
But you know what?
Never underestimate Elon Musk.
And, uh, I got a little pissedoff the other day because
somebody on a podcast, it wasfrom Bloom, the guy was from
(13:12):
Bloomberg, said, well, he's thePT Barnum of, AVS and EVs.
You know something?
Uh, I don't wanna bring up hisname.
When you've accomplishedeverything that Elon Musk has
and you have his net worth, thenyou have the right to call him a
PT Barnum.
Okay?
Is the guy a great promoter?
Does he promote.
You know, big time when hisstock, on his stock calls.
(13:33):
Yeah, he does.
But the guys get one of the mostbrilliant minds in the history
of mankind.
but I'm still keeping myBloomberg terminal.
It didn't piss me off that much.
Okay, so the biggest news I.
Tesla's gonna keep going, andTesla is going to roll out and
ask for forgiveness.
Couple things to watch aboutTesla.
There's a lawsuit coming up, Ithink it's underway in Miami, in
(13:55):
Florida, about the Teslaautopilot.
There was a private vehicle andthe autopilot killed somebody,
or the car crashed and somebodydied.
Watch what happens with thatliability.
'cause that's gonna really be abellwether to all of these
companies.
Okay.
(14:15):
to see who's liable when theseAVS crash.
Now the big news to me last weekwas.
We first talked about it on lastweek's podcast with my lovely
and talented co-host, JamesBlaine is the News from The Evil
Empire.
No, I'm not speaking about theNew York Yankees.
Even though I love the New YorkYankees, and I love all of those
(14:37):
people.
I'm speaking about the true evilempire of Uber.
They announced a partnership tobuild 20,000.
Premium autonomous vehiclesusing the lucid, gravity, SUV.
The stock unit that they builtthe prototype on went out at
93,000.
obviously they Uber didn't paythat.
(14:58):
They probably lent it to themand stock SUV.
Was combined with an autonomoustechnology platform called Neuro
Drive from a company calledNeuro, NURO.
Now, the big news here is Uberwith$7 billion in cash on their
(15:19):
balance sheet.
From what I can.
See from the analyst reports isthey made a commitment on this
project of between 600 millionand 1 billion, drop the bucket.
They committed to 20,000vehicles and they're gonna
launch in a major city in theUnited States in 2026.
And here's the rumor.
You heard it here first.
(15:40):
The rumor is New York.
Okay, now, so they invested 300million in Lucid.
That's a public company that'son the record.
Published reports say theyquote, invested several hundred
million dollars in neuro.
By the way, I am a huge fan ofthe guys at Neuro.
Okay here's why.
(16:01):
There's several facets to thisstory.
Number one, the launch of aquote, premium class, SUV, with
the lucid gravity that goesanywhere from an MSRP to set
from 75,000 to 93,000.
That's number one.
Number two, the financialcommitment of Uber.
Okay?
Made to buy 20,000 of thesepremium class AV vehicles.
(16:22):
They will.
Own and operate themselves.
So going away from the assetlight model, or they'll likely
find a partner like Avis.
I mean, Waymo is partneringapparently with Avis.
Don't quote me on that one, butthey'll find a partner like that
for a national fleet operator.
But the most intriguing thing tome is this partnership with
neuro.
(16:43):
Now NRO was started by a coupleof former engineers from
Google's self-driving ProjectWaymo.
Now Xi June Zu and DavidFerguson.
Dave Ferguson is in the videosvisit.
Neuro AI, NUR o.ai.
Check out their website.
(17:04):
They have a platform calledNeuroDRIVE, which is vehicle
agnostic.
What does that mean?
Vehicle agnostic means they canslap this technology on top of
any stock vehicle.
Okay.
And they have this thing thatlooks, fiberglass color matched
unit that sits on top of a stockvehicle to make it av and they
integrate it.
(17:25):
Now, in the case of the LucidGravity, they integrated their
tech into a stock vehicle.
It went from, by the way, thesticker price on that unit was
93,000'cause it was premium likethrough the roof.
And they installed the neurodriver technology and they had
(17:46):
the prototype finished andworking in five weeks.
So they take a stock, SUV, theybring their neuro drive.
They put it on top of thevehicle, they integrated it into
the vehicle systems.
In five weeks, they have theprototype running lapse in Las
Vegas.
Okay?
Now, if you are a chauffeuroperator, you're gonna wanna
(18:08):
look at their website, neuro.ai,watch their videos, and you form
your own opinion.
Now the game is changing beforeour eyes, this partnership
between Uber Lucid and neuro.
By the way, uh, shout out toDave Ferguson from Nuro Again,
(18:28):
you have not answered my emails.
I won't hold it against you.
You're a busy guy.
We would love to have you on theGround Transportation Podcast to
go techno nerd on.
Your tech, because I'm extremelyimpressed with it.
But I have a fifth gradeeducation when it comes to this
stuff.
I cannot learn that tech.
I can only study the marketfinancially.
(18:50):
Okay?
So please, Dave Ferguson, giveus a call, email us.
We'd love to have you on thewebsite.
If you are a chauffer operatorand you don't visit that
website, you, you're ostrichwith the head in the sand.
So to me.
This is a bellwether.
this is a canary in the coalmine for the chauffeur industry
(19:11):
to understand that there's goingto be an evolution here, and
it's going to first disrupt andthen create massive
opportunities now.
Understand what I'm saying here.
This is a, vehicle agnostictechnology that can be put on
top of any vehicle.
Imagine instead of that lucid,I'm sure it's a beautiful
vehicle, but imagine if it, itwas a Cadillac Escalade ev.
(19:34):
For the sake of argument, thisis the first entry into the
premium autonomous vehiclesector.
Okay?
Hear it now, I, I want to coin aterm, an industry term, and I, I
mean it, I, I hope someday it'llbe on my Wikipedia, it's not
gonna be on my gravestone.
It should be in Wikipedia that Iwas the guy that came up with
(19:54):
the term autonomous delivery.
Okay.
Why?
Yeah.
This robotaxis thing is almostinsulting, but autonomous
delivery is really what it comesdown to.
It's autonomous, live autonomousvehicles for commercial and
Commerce, use use in commerce.
So just imagine if the nextpremium stock vehicle to
integrate with neuro is not thatlucid, but it's instead that new
(20:17):
Cadillac Escalade ev.
And just imagine for a second.
That instead of Goldman Sachsexecutives or their management
team, if not their C-suite,their management team used buy,
they buy five of these thingsand they put it in the Goldman
Sachs garage in New York andsay, you know what?
We're gonna use that to and fromthe airport.
Now good news is theirexecutives are still gonna use
(20:39):
us.
There's gonna be a massive.
Growth in the highest level ofusage in the shore space.
And we can get into that lateron, but there will be some
leakage.
Okay?
Now, if you are a fleet operatorand you go to one of these
banking companies and say, look.
I'm gonna buy five of those foryou.
(21:00):
I'm gonna lease'em to you.
We're gonna maintain'em, we'regonna clean'em.
They're gonna detail'em.
By the way, when they stall onthe parkway or get hit, we'll go
out and get'em.
You, you don't have to have afleet manager.
Goldman Sachs, uh, bank ofAmerica, uh, JP Morgan,
McKinsey.
We'll do it for you, but we wantall of you global
transportation.
Okay?
Do you see where I'm going withthis?
(21:21):
Opportunity you turn disruptioninto opportunity.
Okay.
It's not gonna happen tomorrow.
Don't get all upset.
The next interestingdevelopments on autonomous come
from of all places,Jacksonville, Florida.
I mean, do we really thinkJacksonville is the tech mecca
of the world?
I don't think so.
I visited Jacksonville.
(21:42):
First thing that has happeningin Jacksonville is the Bentler
groups.
Bentler is a German manufacturerof e shuttles.
We may have data on that companyand their division is called,
hold on.
Okay.
They are planning to build afactory in Jacksonville to
assemble autonomous shuttlevehicles when it's open.
It's gonna be in 2026.
(22:04):
It will have 500,000 square footfacility.
They will be mass producing.
Battery powered vehicles thatcan carry up to 15 passengers.
Now visit Bentler now.
My dog's name is Ben Lee, butthe website is B-E-T-E-L-E-R.
(22:25):
Ben, B-E-N-T-E-L-E-R.
Visit the website.
All you have to do is put inJacksonville e shuttles and
it'll come up.
Now the second news outtaJacksonville.
Who would've thought two bigstories outta Jacksonville on
autonomous vehicles.
The second is the JacksonvilleTransportation Authority is the
(22:47):
first public transportationservice that is using autonomous
vehicles.
They the launch of Navy NAVINavy, and it stands for the
Neighborhood Autonomous VehicleInnovation.
they're putting, their firstvehicles are already on the
road.
They've launched a sprinter vanwith autonomous technology,
(23:11):
autonomous driving package.
I have not found out who therobotics company is yet, but
it's, right now traversing thestreets of Jacksonville.
By the way, shout out to TomHolden.
favorite DOT guy in the industrythe most.
No question.
The best DOT expert in theindustry, he sent me that, that
(23:31):
notice, and I, I looked it up.
But thank you, Tom, for sendingthat to me.
Now, keeping up with thesouthern theme, the University
of Mississippi has an ev AVshuttle program, electric
vehicle.
Autonomous vehicle combinedshuttle program underway as
well.
And they're using a shuttle froma company named BEEP.
(23:52):
I've not done a tremendousamount of research on it.
I am actually studying anelectric vehicle shuttle program
that just started in.
Northern Ireland because theyanswered my emails and they're
providing me with tons of data.
But it's same kind of 15 vehiclekind of fleet.
there's also been talk about asimilar AV program with the
(24:13):
University of Michigan.
We're gonna have to see how thatone goes as far as the winter.
So what's next for autonomous?
Okay guys, you're in thetransportation space.
You're in the passengertransportation space.
Cannot be in ostriches.
We cannot be just simply workingin our businesses every day.
We have to look up and we haveto get information and become
(24:35):
educated, much more so than justgoing to two shows.
So what's next for autonomous?
We're gonna watch how themapping and launch of Waymo,
Zoox and Tesla is going in the10 United States, cities that
have already been announced.
Let's keep an eye on that Uberlucid neuro project.
(24:56):
I believe it's not gonna be NewYork.
I think it's gonna beCalifornia, but that's just me
bets.
Anybody take bets?
Okay.
just so you're aware, just, I'mgonna throw this out there.
under no circumstances would Iever do work for Uber.
We've been asked.
We politely said no.
so at the end of the day, all ofour work on AB is gonna either
(25:18):
be with manufacturers orspecific use groups.
and the more we get out there, Ithink it will become bigger.
I think we're able to helpoperators do it, we've got a
couple of operators that we'reworking with now on it, so there
are significant issues.
Watch how this e shuttle pilotprogram develops in
Jacksonville, right?
And so let's just talk thisthrough.
If Jacksonville falls on its assand the public transportation
(25:40):
authority cannot, they spent$5.5million on this project so far.
I don't know how many units theyhave.
But anyway, if that doesn'twork, that's going to be a step
backwards, right?
These other cities that Waymo islaunching in don't go, well, you
know, that's going to be kind ofa.
headwind for avs.
But my personal opinion is whenyou are talking about technology
(26:04):
companies that have an unlimitedamount of money, they're gonna
find a way to make it work.
Okay?
So there are significant issuesand concerns that are evolving
and need to be addressed.
So we need to all stay tuned andwe.
We hope to have many AVstakeholders on the podcast
coming months.
Now, what are these significantissues and concerns?
(26:24):
Number one, it's an uncertaintyabout safety.
Okay.
One of the main benefits ofsupposedly rolling out
driverless cars is to increasetraffic safety by eliminating
driver error, okay?
The NTSB has reported in 2018that more than 90% of serious
crashes were due to human error.
we get it right, but there isstill not converging evidence to
(26:47):
support the idea that AI and AVtaking over from human drivers
can make roads safer.
Now, here's the issue at themoment.
It's not necessarily an issue.
I'm just very cynical.
All of the data is coming fromthe manufacturers and the
industry stakeholders.
Okay.
Now, a cynical person would sayto you, this is a repeat or
(27:09):
chapter two of what we heardwhen Uber came into the market
saying.
Oh, this is a shared thing.
It's the shared economy.
It's going to, make carbonemissions much, much less.
Well, the reality is it'sdoubled carbon emissions because
the damn vehicles are going45,000 miles a year instead of
the average of 18,000 miles.
And they're going half the timeempty.
(27:30):
So don't get me started on the,the sharing economy, but all I'm
saying is when the stakeholdersthat have a financial benefit in
an industry are the only onesproffering data.
We need to be aware.
So I believe you'll see morecoming out from the National
Highway Safety Administration.
You'll have more on the nationalDOT, but at the moment.
(27:54):
You know, it's gotta be a drilldown on all the safety.
It has to be, and it has to comefrom multiple places,
universities and colleges, aswell as industry stakeholders.
So, on the other hand, you know,the evidence that adverse
weather conditions, road designand mixed traffic, okay.
can degrade the performance ofthese vehicles and anomalies in
(28:17):
driving patterns, et cetera.
I think that.
the self-driving tech the AIalgorithms have to be proven
much better than human reaction.
So uncertainties around safety.
Okay.
Second of all, regulatory andlegislation.
Hey, big surprise behind thecurve.
Legislation and regulationprocesses are much slower than
(28:40):
the market and the tech.
Okay?
So there's tons of stakeholdersinvolved.
We're gonna get into how thisgermane to operators.
Okay.
But there are decisions beingmade at the city level, at the
airport level, at the statelevel, and at the federal level.
And manufacturers and industrygroups like the Autonomous
Vehicle Industry Association,which by the way is a great
(29:02):
association.
their safety reports arefantastic.
That'll be part of our report isthe data, but something about
only 30% of the regulators havemade decisions.
Don't quote me on that, butthere it is a big, it's big in
flux.
Okay?
So we have to watch about theregulatory and legislation and
shame on you as an operator inthe transportation space if you
(29:23):
don't know what's happening inyour market.
Number three, the insuranceindustry is not ready.
Now, we will have in the comingepisodes from, in my view, one
of the premier.
Commercial insurance providersin the country.
It's a company called ResearchUnderwriters.
Steven Freeberg has become a, agood friend.
Uh, by the way, one of the onlyguys that calls me Kenny.
(29:45):
And I like that because, it's abond.
he's allowing us to have hisChief operating officer on
Andrew Dons, and we're gonnahave this discussion about the
insurance industry as a whole.
And then we're gonna talk aboutavs.
Now, this is, at the momentthere's scarce actuary data and
most of the safety and crashdata is coming from the
manufacturers.
(30:05):
So, you know, thi this iscombining ambiguities here,
right?
So the insurance industry hasgot to really.
gotta have their answers.
Now, one of the biggest issuesyou we have with these vehicles
is the pricing.
So when there's a crash of oneof these avs, the insurance
companies, a stroke and a checkcould be six figures, right?
(30:26):
Just for the vehicle, forgetabout personal injury.
So the insurance industry is notready yet, but I, I'm very, very
confident that the insuranceindustry as a whole there's
people on this and the actuariesare.
Querying for data and if, ifanybody loves data, it's the
insurance industry.
So these include making sense ofwhere the liabilities lie and
(30:51):
developing new insurance modelsand adapting these premiums as
these types of claims evolve.
Okay.
There's also other risk here.
That is cybersecurity.
These vehicles I'll talk to aninfrastructure.
Again, 60 years old, don't I'm Istruggle with my smartphone, but
(31:12):
they tell me that these thingsare, susceptible to hacking.
So that entire piece of thepuzzle, so that an AV is not
used as a missile, right?
That's gotta be addressed.
And you know, the insuranceindustry is gonna.
obviously have to get on top ofthat.
And the fourth issue that's aconcern is that these are all
(31:32):
new business models, okay?
At the moment, they're comingfrom people that have big tech
companies that have hugedollars.
Okay?
GM is the one that startedautonomous vehicles at the World
Fair in 1939, if I'm notmistaken.
They introduced an autonomousvehicle tech, and then in the
fifties they talked about it andthen Carnegie Mellon was
(31:53):
involved in the university and,and believe it or not, the
Defense Department was involved175 years ago.
But anyway, their money isnothing compared to Google
Money.
And Waymo Google money is realmoney and Amazon money.
Just think every single everypackage that you get is funding
(32:13):
Sue X anyway.
So the new business models aregonna evolve because I don't
know, I just don't, when youlook at the Amazon's model,
their last.
Mile delivery is put a ton ofentrepreneurs in business.
I believe that when autonomousdelivery comes full circle,
they're gonna look to thelargest and most successful and
(32:35):
profitable operators in theregion.
And they're gonna say, Hey look,we wanna put Zu X, but you know
what?
We don't wanna build a afacility.
I mean the top 20 MSAs,metropolitan statistical areas
in the United States areabsolutely gonna be the first
ones, but.
They're certainly gonna needoperators, hither and ya
everywhere.
(32:55):
They're, they're not gonna dealwith every university or
college.
They just don't have theinfrastructure, right?
So they're going to either workwith rental car companies, which
we all know, aren't that nimble.
or they're gonna truly work withfleet operators and this is
gonna be part of yourrepertoire.
Okay?
So these companies areeventually gonna shift.
(33:16):
Right now, Waymo doesn't sell avehicle to the public.
Neither does Zu X, but at theend of the day, I don't think
they're building that plant justto sell the units to themselves.
So there's gonna be an evolutionof selling cars into mobility as
a service, even by carmanufacturers.
You know, the funny thing isTesla's get this idea.
I love Elon Musk.
No, not, not the poli politicsside, but the guy is in
(33:39):
Einstein.
I don't think he sleeps.
He's got this idea that if I buya Tesla AV.
I'm gonna pay 90 grand for it.
I sit in this office 12 hours aday.
I'm going to put that unit,allow that unit to be used for
autonomous vehicles, okay.
In autonomous service.
So at the end of the day, I'mgetting into a vehicle that's a,
Petri dish.
(34:00):
I don't think so.
Elon flaw.
F.
It's okay.
You can make a mistake now andagain, you're a genius.
But I think that, you know what,if there was an ROI would, I buy
five units, put'em in theSalisbury garage across the
street and deploy them and thenclean'em once a day.
If the business model worked, Iwould, okay, let's wrap this up
(34:21):
in 20 minutes.
What should forward thinkingoperators be doing to prepare?
What do I mean by forwardthinking?
If you are stuck every dayworking in your business, you're
not forward thinking.
If you are working on yourbusiness and you are thinking of
how the business is going tolook.
A year from now, two years fromnow, five years from now.
'cause it's gonna have impact onthe value of your business then
(34:44):
for that's forward thinking.
You are working on yourbusiness.
I'm not saying 60 hours a weekof session on, uh, autonomous
vehicles, which.
Apparently it has been me overthe past few weeks.
Um, the good news is Cole isbusy, so, and I can't sell much
more.
He told me to take a hiatus onbringing on new customers.
So this is good stuff.
(35:04):
So I have, I have the time, Ihave the time to read and I have
the time to advise, and severaloperators have called me and we
are in total simpatico.
On the fact that eventuallythese fleet operators will be
called upon and avs will be partof your fleet.
So what should I be looking fornow and how do I prepare?
(35:27):
One of my best operators in NewJersey called me and said what
does this mean to me?
I said, simple.
Know the players in the AV spaceknow what decisions they're
pondering and get into thediscussion.
So who are the people at theairports?
What are the people in charge oftransportation for the sake of
(35:49):
argument at Newark Airport orJFK or LGA, or Logan?
What are they looking at fortheir internal transit as well
as.
Hotel shuttles.
What are the airport officialspositions?
What are the city officialsdoing?
Okay.
I, a great operator from myhometown of Boston call me and
(36:11):
say, have you ever driven aroundBoston?
Do you really think that they'regonna be autonomous vehicles?
Yeah, I do.
They're mapping, the threecompanies are mapping that city.
this summer.
now that's another subject ofthem sharing their mapping, but
yes, I do.
I don't think they're spendingmillions just to try.
Will there be places where theydon't go?
(36:32):
Of course.
Of course.
Absolutely.
But do I think at some point myfamily will be coming from
Wilmington, Massachusetts toLogan Airport in an av It'll be
an option at some point when Idon't wanna bet on that.
So know the players in a, in theAV space, making decisions, your
city planners, your airportplanners, your city transit
(36:54):
people, your airport transitpeople, your state Department of
transportation people, yourstate.
Planners, okay.
Colleges and universities andclosed campuses or closed
communities get involved in thediscussions and know what's
happening.
Become a resource, okay?
I'm not saying to put AVS onyour website this second, but
(37:17):
get in the mix.
Know the nomenclature, and knowwho all the players are in the
industry in the United States.
I am, without question,impressed.
by several of the techcompanies, not necessarily the
manufacturers of the vehicles,but the tech companies.
And this neuro idea of buildingand mapping out every community
and building an agnosticplatform that can go on any
(37:40):
vehicle.
That's the ticket.
Okay.
So we have a report coming inaddition to knowing the players
and getting involved in yourlocal area and what's going on.
It could literally even be yourlocal school system.
Look at Jacksonville again.
The public transportation.
Jacksonville, I think is in the,in, in the maybe the lower 30
(38:02):
maybe.
30 MSAI have to, I'd have toopen up a report to figure out
how big it, but it big it is,but it's not Newark or Jersey
City.
Jersey City's being mapped rightnow by Waymo.
Alright, so know the players inthe AV space, get in the
discussion, become a resource.
Know who's there, eavesdrop onthe conversations, look at all
of the documentation, and thenknow all the players that are in
(38:26):
the industry.
So we have a report coming outin the fall that is going to be
talked about in my state of theindustry introduction.
I sponsored the state of theindustry.
Event, uh, after beingencouraged by the NLA President
Brett Baren Holtz, who says, um,you know, Luci, your data is
fantastic and unlike past yearsand other people talking about
(38:50):
data, your stuff is true.
I'm like, you think so?
Never question the data, is whatI say to many of my clients.
Anyway, so Brett, Brett sat inon the, the C-D-N-L-A.
Um, executive retreat where Iwent, went through our financial
state of the industry report.
This is gonna be a separatereport that's gonna be available
on the website, so we'll talkabout it a little bit in the
(39:13):
intro, you know, only five or 10minutes, and then the report
will be available.
And that show, by the way, let'sjust give a shout out to that
for Chris Weiss is gonna, we'regonna have Chris on before the
show, probably get Brett on.
Those two together are gonna befantastic.
it's October 25th and through28th.
It is the Gaylord in Texas.
It is in Dallas.
(39:34):
Uh, go onto the driven websiteor the NLA website.
Let's talk about impact.
Yeah.
Yeah.
The autonomous vehicles willhave an impact on the taxi
industry, and in my view, it'llrelegate taxi operators to cash
payers, subsidized programs, andnot smartphone, non-smart phone
(39:54):
users.
We have done, we've done quite abit of work in the taxi space
and at the end of the day.
Taxis have gone from the averagebusiness person going from the
railroad transit to their housein a taxi.
Now that's, the TNCs venue.
I mean, I actually have a taxicompany that does this, and they
(40:16):
were that there were a client ofours and people waiting for Uber
would sit in their lobby when itwas cold.
So the taxi business is downabout 85%.
Since the TNCs, you can look atthis in New York.
It's incredible.
and it's gonna be, this is gonnabe the death note.
Now, I urge every taxi operatorto get in the middle of this and
(40:37):
to pray that they can do theautonomous vehicle thing.
And it's a simple ROIcalculation.
Once you know the data, you seehow much the vehicle costs, how
long it's gonna last, what therepair and maintenance is gonna
be, what the fuel is gonna be.
If it's an ev, you're alreadysaving money.
And guess what?
Don't have to deal with taxi,driver.
There's still gonna beopportunities, tremendous
(40:58):
opportunities in taxi in thenon-emergency space.
Okay?
Autonomous vehicles will soon bean on.
All of the TNC apps, and it isgonna displace drivers okay.
On the TNC platforms, but it'sgonna be an option.
Okay?
So someone who's a great, I'm agreat fan of this person.
He is a, he's an operator out inPhoenix, very large operator.
(41:20):
And I said to him, thisaffecting you.
And he said, yeah.
yes, the Waymo's are affectingthe business, I believe, but
I'll tell you what, Ken, I'llput my kids inside of Waymo
before I'll put'em inside anUber any day.
This gentleman's quite thefamily man.
so autonomous vehicles will soonbe an option on the TNC apps.
You are, you're already seeingthe investments that Uber is
(41:43):
making.
Uber has also made a deal to beon the Waymo platform, et
cetera, et cetera.
In the shore sector.
The larger evolved, astute andprofitable operators will
benefit overall from adding,eventually adding autonomous
vehicles to their fleet inspecific segments first.
(42:04):
So my advice to every seriousoperator is to prepare by first
getting involved in thediscussion and learning and
listening.
An entrepreneur have always beencriticized for not being a good
listener, but I thinkentrepreneurs control their own
destiny and they, many of'em, uslove the silent of our own
(42:25):
voice.
We even start podcast, but Ithink it's.
Get involved.
If I'm an operator in New York,I am watching what's going on
and I'm in the discussion, notas a naysayer.
You can't stop this.
Stop.
It's not gonna, you're not gonnastop it.
And as AI evolves, look at thisstorm.
You have unbelievable amounts oftech money.
(42:47):
You have the AI revolution.
And you have the change in theauto autonom in the automobile
industry, from combustion to ev,other alternative fuels.
So get involved in thediscussion, learning and
listening.
we will start having some, Ibelieve, public published.
data on specific AV vehiclesthat will be made available to
(43:09):
the industry so that you'll knowif this vehicle costs me X and
I, I'm gonna be leasing it, myreturn on investment, my
breakeven, et cetera, and myprofitability.
You know, that's what we do.
I'm really happy to continuethis discussion.
I, one of my clients said to me,you're not gonna make too many
friends by keeping the post onautonomous vehicles.
(43:29):
Contrary to popular belief,while I love having friends, my
key role in the industry and mycompany's role in the industry
is to provide data.
It is to give you the data andas much unabashedly.
sterile data as we can and giveyou our sentiments and our
(43:50):
advice because our sentimentsadvice are not from the echo
chamber of our own littlecompany.
It's from talking to everystakeholder that we can find.
I've been literally emailingpeople in Singapore, Korea, the
uk.
Many of them actually answer myemails.
speaking to people atuniversities, speaking to every
(44:12):
single expert I can find on av.
When you see us have in thefuture months, we are hoping to
have some of the, the primarystakeholders in the industry on
the podcast.
All we wanna do is inform.
it may get annoying when I postfive times a week about av.
We will not have this on thepodcast every week, but we felt
(44:33):
that after last week'sdevelopment of Lucid and the
more data we compiled from thepublic, News as well as the
financial platforms we're on.
We, we felt it was worthy of onemore episode.
So that's all for now.
keep tuned in here and visit thedriving transactions.com
(44:53):
website.
Get on our mailing list.
It's cost you nothing.
Um, we're gonna probably put outa video in the report,
presentation, and then we willput out a secondary report with
all of the stakeholders in it.
again, we look forward to, uh,the chauffeur driven NLA
conference in October.
That's when we're going tointroduce the first parts of the
(45:16):
report.
The report will be, you'll signup, be able to sign up for that,
and, and, but in the meantime,look around your local market.
If you are in the top 20 MSAs,they're coming.
Even if you're not in the 20MSAs.
Look at the colleges anduniversities around you, and at
the end of the day, thistechnology is going to provide
(45:38):
great opportunities to theoperators who are forward
thinking prepared.
Profitable because they're gonnatake capital.
So again, thank you very muchfor listening.
We're at the top of our hour.
I miss my co-host James Blainefrom PAX Training more than I
(46:00):
can express in words.
hopefully he'll be back with usnext week, and the two of us
will be pontificating, sometimesbloviating on the next subjects
involving ground transportation.
So in the meantime, have aterrific week.
And keep on rolling.
Talk soon.
Thank you and have a great day.
(46:22):
Thank you for listening to theground transportation podcast.
If you enjoyed this episode,please remember to subscribe to
the show on apple, Spotify,YouTube, or wherever you get
your podcasts.
For more information about PAXtraining and to contact James,
go to PAX training.com.
And for more information aboutdriving transactions and to
contact Ken, Go to drivingtransactions.com.
(46:46):
We'll see you next time on theground transportation podcast.
Good afternoon all and welcome to another exciting
episode of the GroundTransportation Podcast.
Now, uh, my name is Ken Lucci.
I am the Chief Business Analystof Driving Transactions.
I'm normally.
Accompanied by my lovely andtalented co-host, Mr.
(00:50):
James Blaine from Pax.
Unfortunately, you're gonna haveto put up with me.
This will be a monologue today,James is out training, a huge
group of chauffeurs, hither, andyawn in an undisclosed location
around the country.
Uh, James, I hope you're havinga fantastic day.
I want you to know.
I miss you horribly.
(01:10):
Um, I'll try not to let it shakein my voice, but this is gonna
be an interesting and excitingmonologue on one of my favorite
subjects.
Well, your favorite newssubjects.
autonomous vehicle news.
Duh.
Duck.
Duck.
Don't shut off.
This is gonna be really good.
Why do I keep bringing this up?
My business partner says lovelyand talented Cole Weber.
(01:32):
Chief.
Corporate financial analyst hereat Driving Transaction says,
I've become obsessed with avnumber one, we have now, we are
now on our third AV financialanalysis project for three
separate customers.
Two of them are, uh, doingfinancial pro forma, but p and l
(01:54):
uh, financial projections on,shuttle, vehicles.
and the third is a deployment.
Of AV vehicles in a closedcommunity setting.
And one of, one of the AVshuttles is for a vehicle
manufacturer.
The other is for a universitysystem.
And the commu closed communitysetting is actually for a
developer, right?
(02:14):
So when I see, continue, when Isee things that duplicate on
our, you know, our radar, theyare becoming relevant.
And I, I do that with data fromoperators.
Financial data, market data, etet cetera.
And in the case of autonomousvehicles, in addition to what
we're we're seeing, they're allover the news.
(02:36):
Tesla launched in Austin, uh,you know, to mix reviews, but.
I focus more on the financialnews.
So at the end this month, we hadtwo guidance reports on the
autonomous vehicle industry.
The first came outta GoldmanSachs, which we doing a deep
dive on.
And the second is MorganStanley, that I'm in the middle
(02:57):
of the Goldman Sachs report.
I also report from Goldman Sachson the China market for
autonomous vehicles, which isvoluminous.
second use of that word today.
And that'll be somethingseparate, but we are behind the
curve.
On deployments compared to Chinabecause they're building them
over there.
But Goldman Sachs issued areport on autonomous vehicles,
(03:20):
in the US and they addressed themarket for robo taxis, which is
extremely interesting.
Now at present, there are 1500vehicles operating commercially
in five cities in the UnitedStates.
Phoenix being the biggestAustin.
La San Francisco, as well as,you know, they're starting in
other cities we'll talk about,but Goldman Sachs projects that
(03:44):
the market will go from 1500vehicles to over 35,000 vehicles
across the country by 2030.
Now, that absolutely dovetailswith the news that we brought
you last week on the partnershipbetween Uber Lucent.
and Nuro where Uber hascommitted to 20,000 of those
(04:05):
vehicles.
You know, not all in the UnitedStates, but they committed to
20,000.
So this is another data point.
What's intriguing to me aboutGoldman Sachs is at that level,
AVS would be producing$7 billionin annual revenue and Capturing
roughly 8% of the existing USrideshare market.
So they're saying that 8% of theUS rideshare market is going to
(04:28):
shift from a driver on an Uber Xor driver on the one of the
other platforms to autonomous.
Okay, Right now it's less than1% of the avs are from the TNC
platforms.
Now, let me quote.
Autonomous vehicles have arrivedin both ride share and trucking.
According to Goldman Sachsresearch analyst, Mark Delaney.
(04:51):
he writes in the report, webelieve the key focus for
investors.
Is now on pace at which AVS willgrow and how big the market will
become rather than how itstechnology works.
Okay, so Mark Delaney fromGoldman Sachs.
We are big fans here at theGround Transportation Podcast.
(05:12):
Our emails have gone unanswered.
We understand that you're busy.
But we'd love to have you comeon and talk about autonomous
vehicles because after thispodcast, people are gonna be
tired of hearing my little raspyvoice.
So what's the outlook forautonomous vehicles and robo
taxis?
Goldman Sachs Research ForecastRobo Taxi Ride Share Market
implies a compounded annualgrowth rate of 93%.
(05:37):
Between now and 2030.
Now let's put that intoperspective.
If you read our finance andfuture of the chauffeur
transportation industry orattended the CD NLA Executive
Summit by the way, we're gonnahave a video of that coming out.
You know that the chauffeurindustry grows at 2.7%
compounded annual growth rate.
(05:58):
Keep in mind, we're at thebeginning of the autonomous
revolution.
Well, what does that mean?
That means by 2030, the marketwill be 7.7 billion in revenue,
and they're projecting a 40 to50% gross profit margin on those
rides.
Roughly two point, excuse me,3.5 billion by 2030.
(06:18):
You know I'm Mr.
Gross profit.
You know that I'm big on knowingall of the costs to turn the key
and do the work.
They believe that the grossmargins on that will be 40 to
50%.
Now, in addition to GoldmanSachs, Morgan Stanley just
issued a 52 page report.
On autos in the shared mobilitysector called from horsepower to
(06:42):
brainpower, how AI takes thewheel.
As AI accelerates change in theauto industry.
Now understand something.
The AI and AV space in the autoindustries, not just Robo Cab,
you know, it's me buying an AVenabled vehicle for myself.
And at the end of the day,letting Bentley my Jack Russell
(07:04):
Terrier drive home and me sit inin the passenger seat.
He's actually on my lap rightnow, but at the end of the day,
the AVS will have private use,but the Robo Taxii piece is a
completely separate part of thesector.
Morgan Stanley believes thatautonomous vehicles will be a
$200 billion market inself-driving vehicles around the
(07:26):
world by 2030.
Understand these are big globalfinancial powerhouses.
They look at the whole market.
They've identified 60stakeholder names that you must
become.
Associated with, or excuse me,you have to have'em on your
radar.
The tech people that build thetechnology, the companies that
(07:49):
are doing the robotics, theautonomous vehicles, et cetera.
Good news is we're gonna have areport.
We're gonna distill all thisstuff down and put it in my
sixth grader language.
And we will have a report foryou later on the fall in time
for the Chauffeur DrivenNational Limousine Association
Show in October in Dallas, whichtalk about a little bit later,
(08:12):
but shine up.
currently has 30,000 robo taxison the road in 10 major cities
around the country, and GoldmanSachs has a completely separate
report on that, and we'redissecting that because it's a
critically important to look atthe rest of the world.
We're behind the curve becausethey're building them over
(08:32):
there.
The tech is all over there, butwe're catching up fast.
the interesting thing about thatreport is with 30,000 robo taxis
in 10 major cities in Chinadeployed by, we ride the Uber
equivalent in China, we ridepony ai, which builds a vtech
and Apollo go, which builds thevehicles as well.
(08:56):
All of these companies withtheir 30,000 vehicles are break
even.
Either they're starting to turna profit on their fleets.
Either and their infrastructurethis year or at the latest by
mid 2026.
Think about that now, theaverage vehicle in China earns
$31,000 in revenue, a month.
Okay, so roughly a thousandbucks a day.
(09:17):
A little bit more.
So back to the us sec.
At the moment in the UnitedStates, we have three major
players in autonomous vehicles.
First Waymo, owned by Google has1500 vehicles on the road in
five cities.
and they're mapping another 10cities, including Boston, New
York, Philadelphia, and if I'mnot mistaken, they're launching
(09:39):
in Atlanta and DC uh, as wespeak.
Waymo's owned by Google.
So they have an unlimited amountof money to throw At this market
for avs, so interesting stats.
They've had 10 million paidrides completed.
They average 250,000 rides aweek, and they currently only
have 1500 vehicles now everyfive months that business
(10:01):
doubles.
Okay?
So they're expanding in 10 morecities in the United States by
2026.
They're currently mappingBoston, Philadelphia, New York,
Chicago, and Seattle.
Now they have committed another2000 vehicles are coming from
Jaguar by the end of 2025 andthey've announced a new
partnership with both Toyota andHyundai to utilize their
(10:22):
technology.
So what is this gonna look likeif you buy a Toyota?
My forerunner is gonna bereplaced with an AV vehicle at
some point, uh, they'll pry itoutta my cold dead hands'cause I
love it.
Waymo has 3,476 patents globallywith 1,898 granted here in the
(10:43):
United States, 3,199 active,whatever that means.
Now, these patents cover a Rangeof AV tech.
Okay, so what are they doing?
They're going to Toyota andHyundai and saying, look,
instead of doing what GM did,which was launch cruise and use
your own AV technology, we'regonna grant you use of our
patents.
(11:03):
but here's the thing.
We wanna use your vehicles whenyou build them because we're,
you know, kind of getting tiredof Jaguar.
That's my war.
It's not theirs, but.
They're making deals with Toyotaand Hyundai, so they're not
gonna be married specificallyand only to their first
generation level four autonomousvehicle.
(11:24):
Now, level four means, you know,it's, it's working on its own,
but the liability issues arestill with the manufacturer.
Level five is completelyautonomous, and you know that
will evolve.
So Google's Waymo's main.
competitive advantage of thosepatents.
Then we have Zoox, the secondplayer in the industry owned by
(11:46):
Amazon.
Now they only have a handful ofvehicles on the, on the road,
and they're in Las Vegas now.
They're a sleeper.
Okay.
They, if you, if you've gone toVegas last year, I saw one and I
almost spit out my Dunkin Donutscoffee.
'cause it looks like a boxyvehicle.
Literally.
It looks like a toaster, but it,it supposedly can fit, I don't
know, eight people in it.
(12:07):
Here what's going on.
they announced that they are inthe middle of building a mega
factory in California to be ableto spit out 10,000 of these
vehicles a year.
Well known.
So their strategy's been alittle bit different.
Prove it works in one place,then they're gonna massively
(12:27):
build these vehicles.
Now, I don't think they want toown the vehicles and I don't
think they wanna run thebusiness just like they Amazon
as the whole network of lastmile providers.
That's gonna be an opportunityfor fleet operators.
The third.
Player in the United States isTesla.
Tesla, robo taxis went live inAustin last month.
(12:51):
They're going live in SanFrancisco they're mapping out
several of the cities in theUnited States and they're being
seen all over Californiamapping.
Now they've been mixed reviewson Tesla autonomous rolled out
in in Austin.
But you know what?
Never underestimate Elon Musk.
And, uh, I got a little pissedoff the other day because
somebody on a podcast, it wasfrom Bloom, the guy was from
(13:12):
Bloomberg, said, well, he's thePT Barnum of, AVS and EVs.
You know something?
Uh, I don't wanna bring up hisname.
When you've accomplishedeverything that Elon Musk has
and you have his net worth, thenyou have the right to call him a
PT Barnum.
Okay?
Is the guy a great promoter?
Does he promote.
You know, big time when hisstock, on his stock calls.
(13:33):
Yeah, he does.
But the guys get one of the mostbrilliant minds in the history
of mankind.
but I'm still keeping myBloomberg terminal.
It didn't piss me off that much.
Okay, so the biggest news I.
Tesla's gonna keep going, andTesla is going to roll out and
ask for forgiveness.
Couple things to watch aboutTesla.
There's a lawsuit coming up, Ithink it's underway in Miami, in
(13:55):
Florida, about the Teslaautopilot.
There was a private vehicle andthe autopilot killed somebody,
or the car crashed and somebodydied.
Watch what happens with thatliability.
'cause that's gonna really be abellwether to all of these
companies.
Okay.
(14:15):
to see who's liable when theseAVS crash.
Now the big news to me last weekwas.
We first talked about it on lastweek's podcast with my lovely
and talented co-host, JamesBlaine is the News from The Evil
Empire.
No, I'm not speaking about theNew York Yankees.
Even though I love the New YorkYankees, and I love all of those
(14:37):
people.
I'm speaking about the true evilempire of Uber.
They announced a partnership tobuild 20,000.
Premium autonomous vehiclesusing the lucid, gravity, SUV.
The stock unit that they builtthe prototype on went out at
93,000.
obviously they Uber didn't paythat.
(14:58):
They probably lent it to themand stock SUV.
Was combined with an autonomoustechnology platform called Neuro
Drive from a company calledNeuro, NURO.
Now, the big news here is Uberwith$7 billion in cash on their
(15:19):
balance sheet.
From what I can.
See from the analyst reports isthey made a commitment on this
project of between 600 millionand 1 billion, drop the bucket.
They committed to 20,000vehicles and they're gonna
launch in a major city in theUnited States in 2026.
And here's the rumor.
You heard it here first.
(15:40):
The rumor is New York.
Okay, now, so they invested 300million in Lucid.
That's a public company that'son the record.
Published reports say theyquote, invested several hundred
million dollars in neuro.
By the way, I am a huge fan ofthe guys at Neuro.
Okay here's why.
(16:01):
There's several facets to thisstory.
Number one, the launch of aquote, premium class, SUV, with
the lucid gravity that goesanywhere from an MSRP to set
from 75,000 to 93,000.
That's number one.
Number two, the financialcommitment of Uber.
Okay?
Made to buy 20,000 of thesepremium class AV vehicles.
(16:22):
They will.
Own and operate themselves.
So going away from the assetlight model, or they'll likely
find a partner like Avis.
I mean, Waymo is partneringapparently with Avis.
Don't quote me on that one, butthey'll find a partner like that
for a national fleet operator.
But the most intriguing thing tome is this partnership with
neuro.
(16:43):
Now NRO was started by a coupleof former engineers from
Google's self-driving ProjectWaymo.
Now Xi June Zu and DavidFerguson.
Dave Ferguson is in the videosvisit.
Neuro AI, NUR o.ai.
Check out their website.
(17:04):
They have a platform calledNeuroDRIVE, which is vehicle
agnostic.
What does that mean?
Vehicle agnostic means they canslap this technology on top of
any stock vehicle.
Okay.
And they have this thing thatlooks, fiberglass color matched
unit that sits on top of a stockvehicle to make it av and they
integrate it.
(17:25):
Now, in the case of the LucidGravity, they integrated their
tech into a stock vehicle.
It went from, by the way, thesticker price on that unit was
93,000'cause it was premium likethrough the roof.
And they installed the neurodriver technology and they had
(17:46):
the prototype finished andworking in five weeks.
So they take a stock, SUV, theybring their neuro drive.
They put it on top of thevehicle, they integrated it into
the vehicle systems.
In five weeks, they have theprototype running lapse in Las
Vegas.
Okay?
Now, if you are a chauffeuroperator, you're gonna wanna
(18:08):
look at their website, neuro.ai,watch their videos, and you form
your own opinion.
Now the game is changing beforeour eyes, this partnership
between Uber Lucid and neuro.
By the way, uh, shout out toDave Ferguson from Nuro Again,
(18:28):
you have not answered my emails.
I won't hold it against you.
You're a busy guy.
We would love to have you on theGround Transportation Podcast to
go techno nerd on.
Your tech, because I'm extremelyimpressed with it.
But I have a fifth gradeeducation when it comes to this
stuff.
I cannot learn that tech.
I can only study the marketfinancially.
(18:50):
Okay?
So please, Dave Ferguson, giveus a call, email us.
We'd love to have you on thewebsite.
If you are a chauffer operatorand you don't visit that
website, you, you're ostrichwith the head in the sand.
So to me.
This is a bellwether.
this is a canary in the coalmine for the chauffeur industry
(19:11):
to understand that there's goingto be an evolution here, and
it's going to first disrupt andthen create massive
opportunities now.
Understand what I'm saying here.
This is a, vehicle agnostictechnology that can be put on
top of any vehicle.
Imagine instead of that lucid,I'm sure it's a beautiful
vehicle, but imagine if it, itwas a Cadillac Escalade ev.
(19:34):
For the sake of argument, thisis the first entry into the
premium autonomous vehiclesector.
Okay?
Hear it now, I, I want to coin aterm, an industry term, and I, I
mean it, I, I hope someday it'llbe on my Wikipedia, it's not
gonna be on my gravestone.
It should be in Wikipedia that Iwas the guy that came up with
(19:54):
the term autonomous delivery.
Okay.
Why?
Yeah.
This robotaxis thing is almostinsulting, but autonomous
delivery is really what it comesdown to.
It's autonomous, live autonomousvehicles for commercial and
Commerce, use use in commerce.
So just imagine if the nextpremium stock vehicle to
integrate with neuro is not thatlucid, but it's instead that new
(20:17):
Cadillac Escalade ev.
And just imagine for a second.
That instead of Goldman Sachsexecutives or their management
team, if not their C-suite,their management team used buy,
they buy five of these thingsand they put it in the Goldman
Sachs garage in New York andsay, you know what?
We're gonna use that to and fromthe airport.
Now good news is theirexecutives are still gonna use
(20:39):
us.
There's gonna be a massive.
Growth in the highest level ofusage in the shore space.
And we can get into that lateron, but there will be some
leakage.
Okay?
Now, if you are a fleet operatorand you go to one of these
banking companies and say, look.
I'm gonna buy five of those foryou.
(21:00):
I'm gonna lease'em to you.
We're gonna maintain'em, we'regonna clean'em.
They're gonna detail'em.
By the way, when they stall onthe parkway or get hit, we'll go
out and get'em.
You, you don't have to have afleet manager.
Goldman Sachs, uh, bank ofAmerica, uh, JP Morgan,
McKinsey.
We'll do it for you, but we wantall of you global
transportation.
Okay?
Do you see where I'm going withthis?
(21:21):
Opportunity you turn disruptioninto opportunity.
Okay.
It's not gonna happen tomorrow.
Don't get all upset.
The next interestingdevelopments on autonomous come
from of all places,Jacksonville, Florida.
I mean, do we really thinkJacksonville is the tech mecca
of the world?
I don't think so.
I visited Jacksonville.
(21:42):
First thing that has happeningin Jacksonville is the Bentler
groups.
Bentler is a German manufacturerof e shuttles.
We may have data on that companyand their division is called,
hold on.
Okay.
They are planning to build afactory in Jacksonville to
assemble autonomous shuttlevehicles when it's open.
It's gonna be in 2026.
(22:04):
It will have 500,000 square footfacility.
They will be mass producing.
Battery powered vehicles thatcan carry up to 15 passengers.
Now visit Bentler now.
My dog's name is Ben Lee, butthe website is B-E-T-E-L-E-R.
(22:25):
Ben, B-E-N-T-E-L-E-R.
Visit the website.
All you have to do is put inJacksonville e shuttles and
it'll come up.
Now the second news outtaJacksonville.
Who would've thought two bigstories outta Jacksonville on
autonomous vehicles.
The second is the JacksonvilleTransportation Authority is the
(22:47):
first public transportationservice that is using autonomous
vehicles.
They the launch of Navy NAVINavy, and it stands for the
Neighborhood Autonomous VehicleInnovation.
they're putting, their firstvehicles are already on the
road.
They've launched a sprinter vanwith autonomous technology,
(23:11):
autonomous driving package.
I have not found out who therobotics company is yet, but
it's, right now traversing thestreets of Jacksonville.
By the way, shout out to TomHolden.
favorite DOT guy in the industrythe most.
No question.
The best DOT expert in theindustry, he sent me that, that
(23:31):
notice, and I, I looked it up.
But thank you, Tom, for sendingthat to me.
Now, keeping up with thesouthern theme, the University
of Mississippi has an ev AVshuttle program, electric
vehicle.
Autonomous vehicle combinedshuttle program underway as
well.
And they're using a shuttle froma company named BEEP.
(23:52):
I've not done a tremendousamount of research on it.
I am actually studying anelectric vehicle shuttle program
that just started in.
Northern Ireland because theyanswered my emails and they're
providing me with tons of data.
But it's same kind of 15 vehiclekind of fleet.
there's also been talk about asimilar AV program with the
(24:13):
University of Michigan.
We're gonna have to see how thatone goes as far as the winter.
So what's next for autonomous?
Okay guys, you're in thetransportation space.
You're in the passengertransportation space.
Cannot be in ostriches.
We cannot be just simply workingin our businesses every day.
We have to look up and we haveto get information and become
(24:35):
educated, much more so than justgoing to two shows.
So what's next for autonomous?
We're gonna watch how themapping and launch of Waymo,
Zoox and Tesla is going in the10 United States, cities that
have already been announced.
Let's keep an eye on that Uberlucid neuro project.
(24:56):
I believe it's not gonna be NewYork.
I think it's gonna beCalifornia, but that's just me
bets.
Anybody take bets?
Okay.
just so you're aware, just, I'mgonna throw this out there.
under no circumstances would Iever do work for Uber.
We've been asked.
We politely said no.
so at the end of the day, all ofour work on AB is gonna either
(25:18):
be with manufacturers orspecific use groups.
and the more we get out there, Ithink it will become bigger.
I think we're able to helpoperators do it, we've got a
couple of operators that we'reworking with now on it, so there
are significant issues.
Watch how this e shuttle pilotprogram develops in
Jacksonville, right?
And so let's just talk thisthrough.
If Jacksonville falls on its assand the public transportation
(25:40):
authority cannot, they spent$5.5million on this project so far.
I don't know how many units theyhave.
But anyway, if that doesn'twork, that's going to be a step
backwards, right?
These other cities that Waymo islaunching in don't go, well, you
know, that's going to be kind ofa.
headwind for avs.
But my personal opinion is whenyou are talking about technology
(26:04):
companies that have an unlimitedamount of money, they're gonna
find a way to make it work.
Okay?
So there are significant issuesand concerns that are evolving
and need to be addressed.
So we need to all stay tuned andwe.
We hope to have many AVstakeholders on the podcast
coming months.
Now, what are these significantissues and concerns?
(26:24):
Number one, it's an uncertaintyabout safety.
Okay.
One of the main benefits ofsupposedly rolling out
driverless cars is to increasetraffic safety by eliminating
driver error, okay?
The NTSB has reported in 2018that more than 90% of serious
crashes were due to human error.
we get it right, but there isstill not converging evidence to
(26:47):
support the idea that AI and AVtaking over from human drivers
can make roads safer.
Now, here's the issue at themoment.
It's not necessarily an issue.
I'm just very cynical.
All of the data is coming fromthe manufacturers and the
industry stakeholders.
Okay.
Now, a cynical person would sayto you, this is a repeat or
(27:09):
chapter two of what we heardwhen Uber came into the market
saying.
Oh, this is a shared thing.
It's the shared economy.
It's going to, make carbonemissions much, much less.
Well, the reality is it'sdoubled carbon emissions because
the damn vehicles are going45,000 miles a year instead of
the average of 18,000 miles.
And they're going half the timeempty.
(27:30):
So don't get me started on the,the sharing economy, but all I'm
saying is when the stakeholdersthat have a financial benefit in
an industry are the only onesproffering data.
We need to be aware.
So I believe you'll see morecoming out from the National
Highway Safety Administration.
You'll have more on the nationalDOT, but at the moment.
(27:54):
You know, it's gotta be a drilldown on all the safety.
It has to be, and it has to comefrom multiple places,
universities and colleges, aswell as industry stakeholders.
So, on the other hand, you know,the evidence that adverse
weather conditions, road designand mixed traffic, okay.
can degrade the performance ofthese vehicles and anomalies in
(28:17):
driving patterns, et cetera.
I think that.
the self-driving tech the AIalgorithms have to be proven
much better than human reaction.
So uncertainties around safety.
Okay.
Second of all, regulatory andlegislation.
Hey, big surprise behind thecurve.
Legislation and regulationprocesses are much slower than
(28:40):
the market and the tech.
Okay?
So there's tons of stakeholdersinvolved.
We're gonna get into how thisgermane to operators.
Okay.
But there are decisions beingmade at the city level, at the
airport level, at the statelevel, and at the federal level.
And manufacturers and industrygroups like the Autonomous
Vehicle Industry Association,which by the way is a great
(29:02):
association.
their safety reports arefantastic.
That'll be part of our report isthe data, but something about
only 30% of the regulators havemade decisions.
Don't quote me on that, butthere it is a big, it's big in
flux.
Okay?
So we have to watch about theregulatory and legislation and
shame on you as an operator inthe transportation space if you
(29:23):
don't know what's happening inyour market.
Number three, the insuranceindustry is not ready.
Now, we will have in the comingepisodes from, in my view, one
of the premier.
Commercial insurance providersin the country.
It's a company called ResearchUnderwriters.
Steven Freeberg has become a, agood friend.
Uh, by the way, one of the onlyguys that calls me Kenny.
(29:45):
And I like that because, it's abond.
he's allowing us to have hisChief operating officer on
Andrew Dons, and we're gonnahave this discussion about the
insurance industry as a whole.
And then we're gonna talk aboutavs.
Now, this is, at the momentthere's scarce actuary data and
most of the safety and crashdata is coming from the
manufacturers.
(30:05):
So, you know, thi this iscombining ambiguities here,
right?
So the insurance industry hasgot to really.
gotta have their answers.
Now, one of the biggest issuesyou we have with these vehicles
is the pricing.
So when there's a crash of oneof these avs, the insurance
companies, a stroke and a checkcould be six figures, right?
(30:26):
Just for the vehicle, forgetabout personal injury.
So the insurance industry is notready yet, but I, I'm very, very
confident that the insuranceindustry as a whole there's
people on this and the actuariesare.
Querying for data and if, ifanybody loves data, it's the
insurance industry.
So these include making sense ofwhere the liabilities lie and
(30:51):
developing new insurance modelsand adapting these premiums as
these types of claims evolve.
Okay.
There's also other risk here.
That is cybersecurity.
These vehicles I'll talk to aninfrastructure.
Again, 60 years old, don't I'm Istruggle with my smartphone, but
(31:12):
they tell me that these thingsare, susceptible to hacking.
So that entire piece of thepuzzle, so that an AV is not
used as a missile, right?
That's gotta be addressed.
And you know, the insuranceindustry is gonna.
obviously have to get on top ofthat.
And the fourth issue that's aconcern is that these are all
(31:32):
new business models, okay?
At the moment, they're comingfrom people that have big tech
companies that have hugedollars.
Okay?
GM is the one that startedautonomous vehicles at the World
Fair in 1939, if I'm notmistaken.
They introduced an autonomousvehicle tech, and then in the
fifties they talked about it andthen Carnegie Mellon was
(31:53):
involved in the university and,and believe it or not, the
Defense Department was involved175 years ago.
But anyway, their money isnothing compared to Google
Money.
And Waymo Google money is realmoney and Amazon money.
Just think every single everypackage that you get is funding
(32:13):
Sue X anyway.
So the new business models aregonna evolve because I don't
know, I just don't, when youlook at the Amazon's model,
their last.
Mile delivery is put a ton ofentrepreneurs in business.
I believe that when autonomousdelivery comes full circle,
they're gonna look to thelargest and most successful and
(32:35):
profitable operators in theregion.
And they're gonna say, Hey look,we wanna put Zu X, but you know
what?
We don't wanna build a afacility.
I mean the top 20 MSAs,metropolitan statistical areas
in the United States areabsolutely gonna be the first
ones, but.
They're certainly gonna needoperators, hither and ya
everywhere.
(32:55):
They're, they're not gonna dealwith every university or
college.
They just don't have theinfrastructure, right?
So they're going to either workwith rental car companies, which
we all know, aren't that nimble.
or they're gonna truly work withfleet operators and this is
gonna be part of yourrepertoire.
Okay?
So these companies areeventually gonna shift.
(33:16):
Right now, Waymo doesn't sell avehicle to the public.
Neither does Zu X, but at theend of the day, I don't think
they're building that plant justto sell the units to themselves.
So there's gonna be an evolutionof selling cars into mobility as
a service, even by carmanufacturers.
You know, the funny thing isTesla's get this idea.
I love Elon Musk.
No, not, not the poli politicsside, but the guy is in
(33:39):
Einstein.
I don't think he sleeps.
He's got this idea that if I buya Tesla AV.
I'm gonna pay 90 grand for it.
I sit in this office 12 hours aday.
I'm going to put that unit,allow that unit to be used for
autonomous vehicles, okay.
In autonomous service.
So at the end of the day, I'mgetting into a vehicle that's a,
Petri dish.
(34:00):
I don't think so.
Elon flaw.
F.
It's okay.
You can make a mistake now andagain, you're a genius.
But I think that, you know what,if there was an ROI would, I buy
five units, put'em in theSalisbury garage across the
street and deploy them and thenclean'em once a day.
If the business model worked, Iwould, okay, let's wrap this up
(34:21):
in 20 minutes.
What should forward thinkingoperators be doing to prepare?
What do I mean by forwardthinking?
If you are stuck every dayworking in your business, you're
not forward thinking.
If you are working on yourbusiness and you are thinking of
how the business is going tolook.
A year from now, two years fromnow, five years from now.
'cause it's gonna have impact onthe value of your business then
(34:44):
for that's forward thinking.
You are working on yourbusiness.
I'm not saying 60 hours a weekof session on, uh, autonomous
vehicles, which.
Apparently it has been me overthe past few weeks.
Um, the good news is Cole isbusy, so, and I can't sell much
more.
He told me to take a hiatus onbringing on new customers.
So this is good stuff.
(35:04):
So I have, I have the time, Ihave the time to read and I have
the time to advise, and severaloperators have called me and we
are in total simpatico.
On the fact that eventuallythese fleet operators will be
called upon and avs will be partof your fleet.
So what should I be looking fornow and how do I prepare?
(35:27):
One of my best operators in NewJersey called me and said what
does this mean to me?
I said, simple.
Know the players in the AV spaceknow what decisions they're
pondering and get into thediscussion.
So who are the people at theairports?
What are the people in charge oftransportation for the sake of
(35:49):
argument at Newark Airport orJFK or LGA, or Logan?
What are they looking at fortheir internal transit as well
as.
Hotel shuttles.
What are the airport officialspositions?
What are the city officialsdoing?
Okay.
I, a great operator from myhometown of Boston call me and
(36:11):
say, have you ever driven aroundBoston?
Do you really think that they'regonna be autonomous vehicles?
Yeah, I do.
They're mapping, the threecompanies are mapping that city.
this summer.
now that's another subject ofthem sharing their mapping, but
yes, I do.
I don't think they're spendingmillions just to try.
Will there be places where theydon't go?
(36:32):
Of course.
Of course.
Absolutely.
But do I think at some point myfamily will be coming from
Wilmington, Massachusetts toLogan Airport in an av It'll be
an option at some point when Idon't wanna bet on that.
So know the players in a, in theAV space, making decisions, your
city planners, your airportplanners, your city transit
(36:54):
people, your airport transitpeople, your state Department of
transportation people, yourstate.
Planners, okay.
Colleges and universities andclosed campuses or closed
communities get involved in thediscussions and know what's
happening.
Become a resource, okay?
I'm not saying to put AVS onyour website this second, but
(37:17):
get in the mix.
Know the nomenclature, and knowwho all the players are in the
industry in the United States.
I am, without question,impressed.
by several of the techcompanies, not necessarily the
manufacturers of the vehicles,but the tech companies.
And this neuro idea of buildingand mapping out every community
and building an agnosticplatform that can go on any
(37:40):
vehicle.
That's the ticket.
Okay.
So we have a report coming inaddition to knowing the players
and getting involved in yourlocal area and what's going on.
It could literally even be yourlocal school system.
Look at Jacksonville again.
The public transportation.
Jacksonville, I think is in the,in, in the maybe the lower 30
(38:02):
maybe.
30 MSAI have to, I'd have toopen up a report to figure out
how big it, but it big it is,but it's not Newark or Jersey
City.
Jersey City's being mapped rightnow by Waymo.
Alright, so know the players inthe AV space, get in the
discussion, become a resource.
Know who's there, eavesdrop onthe conversations, look at all
of the documentation, and thenknow all the players that are in
(38:26):
the industry.
So we have a report coming outin the fall that is going to be
talked about in my state of theindustry introduction.
I sponsored the state of theindustry.
Event, uh, after beingencouraged by the NLA President
Brett Baren Holtz, who says, um,you know, Luci, your data is
fantastic and unlike past yearsand other people talking about
(38:50):
data, your stuff is true.
I'm like, you think so?
Never question the data, is whatI say to many of my clients.
Anyway, so Brett, Brett sat inon the, the C-D-N-L-A.
Um, executive retreat where Iwent, went through our financial
state of the industry report.
This is gonna be a separatereport that's gonna be available
on the website, so we'll talkabout it a little bit in the
(39:13):
intro, you know, only five or 10minutes, and then the report
will be available.
And that show, by the way, let'sjust give a shout out to that
for Chris Weiss is gonna, we'regonna have Chris on before the
show, probably get Brett on.
Those two together are gonna befantastic.
it's October 25th and through28th.
It is the Gaylord in Texas.
It is in Dallas.
(39:34):
Uh, go onto the driven websiteor the NLA website.
Let's talk about impact.
Yeah.
Yeah.
The autonomous vehicles willhave an impact on the taxi
industry, and in my view, it'llrelegate taxi operators to cash
payers, subsidized programs, andnot smartphone, non-smart phone
(39:54):
users.
We have done, we've done quite abit of work in the taxi space
and at the end of the day.
Taxis have gone from the averagebusiness person going from the
railroad transit to their housein a taxi.
Now that's, the TNCs venue.
I mean, I actually have a taxicompany that does this, and they
(40:16):
were that there were a client ofours and people waiting for Uber
would sit in their lobby when itwas cold.
So the taxi business is downabout 85%.
Since the TNCs, you can look atthis in New York.
It's incredible.
and it's gonna be, this is gonnabe the death note.
Now, I urge every taxi operatorto get in the middle of this and
(40:37):
to pray that they can do theautonomous vehicle thing.
And it's a simple ROIcalculation.
Once you know the data, you seehow much the vehicle costs, how
long it's gonna last, what therepair and maintenance is gonna
be, what the fuel is gonna be.
If it's an ev, you're alreadysaving money.
And guess what?
Don't have to deal with taxi,driver.
There's still gonna beopportunities, tremendous
(40:58):
opportunities in taxi in thenon-emergency space.
Okay?
Autonomous vehicles will soon bean on.
All of the TNC apps, and it isgonna displace drivers okay.
On the TNC platforms, but it'sgonna be an option.
Okay?
So someone who's a great, I'm agreat fan of this person.
He is a, he's an operator out inPhoenix, very large operator.
(41:20):
And I said to him, thisaffecting you.
And he said, yeah.
yes, the Waymo's are affectingthe business, I believe, but
I'll tell you what, Ken, I'llput my kids inside of Waymo
before I'll put'em inside anUber any day.
This gentleman's quite thefamily man.
so autonomous vehicles will soonbe an option on the TNC apps.
You are, you're already seeingthe investments that Uber is
(41:43):
making.
Uber has also made a deal to beon the Waymo platform, et
cetera, et cetera.
In the shore sector.
The larger evolved, astute andprofitable operators will
benefit overall from adding,eventually adding autonomous
vehicles to their fleet inspecific segments first.
(42:04):
So my advice to every seriousoperator is to prepare by first
getting involved in thediscussion and learning and
listening.
An entrepreneur have always beencriticized for not being a good
listener, but I thinkentrepreneurs control their own
destiny and they, many of'em, uslove the silent of our own
(42:25):
voice.
We even start podcast, but Ithink it's.
Get involved.
If I'm an operator in New York,I am watching what's going on
and I'm in the discussion, notas a naysayer.
You can't stop this.
Stop.
It's not gonna, you're not gonnastop it.
And as AI evolves, look at thisstorm.
You have unbelievable amounts oftech money.
(42:47):
You have the AI revolution.
And you have the change in theauto autonom in the automobile
industry, from combustion to ev,other alternative fuels.
So get involved in thediscussion, learning and
listening.
we will start having some, Ibelieve, public published.
data on specific AV vehiclesthat will be made available to
(43:09):
the industry so that you'll knowif this vehicle costs me X and
I, I'm gonna be leasing it, myreturn on investment, my
breakeven, et cetera, and myprofitability.
You know, that's what we do.
I'm really happy to continuethis discussion.
I, one of my clients said to me,you're not gonna make too many
friends by keeping the post onautonomous vehicles.
(43:29):
Contrary to popular belief,while I love having friends, my
key role in the industry and mycompany's role in the industry
is to provide data.
It is to give you the data andas much unabashedly.
sterile data as we can and giveyou our sentiments and our
(43:50):
advice because our sentimentsadvice are not from the echo
chamber of our own littlecompany.
It's from talking to everystakeholder that we can find.
I've been literally emailingpeople in Singapore, Korea, the
uk.
Many of them actually answer myemails.
speaking to people atuniversities, speaking to every
(44:12):
single expert I can find on av.
When you see us have in thefuture months, we are hoping to
have some of the, the primarystakeholders in the industry on
the podcast.
All we wanna do is inform.
it may get annoying when I postfive times a week about av.
We will not have this on thepodcast every week, but we felt
(44:33):
that after last week'sdevelopment of Lucid and the
more data we compiled from thepublic, News as well as the
financial platforms we're on.
We, we felt it was worthy of onemore episode.
So that's all for now.
keep tuned in here and visit thedriving transactions.com
(44:53):
website.
Get on our mailing list.
It's cost you nothing.
Um, we're gonna probably put outa video in the report,
presentation, and then we willput out a secondary report with
all of the stakeholders in it.
again, we look forward to, uh,the chauffeur driven NLA
conference in October.
That's when we're going tointroduce the first parts of the
(45:16):
report.
The report will be, you'll signup, be able to sign up for that,
and, and, but in the meantime,look around your local market.
If you are in the top 20 MSAs,they're coming.
Even if you're not in the 20MSAs.
Look at the colleges anduniversities around you, and at
the end of the day, thistechnology is going to provide
(45:38):
great opportunities to theoperators who are forward
thinking prepared.
Profitable because they're gonnatake capital.
So again, thank you very muchfor listening.
We're at the top of our hour.
I miss my co-host James Blainefrom PAX Training more than I
(46:00):
can express in words.
hopefully he'll be back with usnext week, and the two of us
will be pontificating, sometimesbloviating on the next subjects
involving ground transportation.
So in the meantime, have aterrific week.
And keep on rolling.
Talk soon.
Thank you and have a great day.
(46:22):
Thank you for listening to theground transportation podcast.
If you enjoyed this episode,please remember to subscribe to
the show on apple, Spotify,YouTube, or wherever you get
your podcasts.
For more information about PAXtraining and to contact James,
go to PAX training.com.
And for more information aboutdriving transactions and to
contact Ken, Go to drivingtransactions.com.
(46:46):
We'll see you next time on theground transportation podcast.
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