Framing a Future Nuclear Force Posture

Two pods in one week, we’re really overworking ourselves (MIT’s semester ended and we are in between trips in writing limbo, so why not).

In this episode, Vipin and I talk to Bob Peters, a Senior Research Fellow for Strategic Deterrence at the Heritage Foundation, and John Warden, a former NSC Director for Strategic Stability and Arms Control in the Biden Administration, about a future U.S. nuclear force. After baselining on:

* anticipated modernization program costs (including a recent adjustment by the Congressional Budget Office on the ten-year outlook for the nuclear modernization “program of record”— $946 billion over the 2025–2034 period, or an average of about $95 billion a year); and,

* the likely continuity in U.S. nuclear strategy (I annoy Vipin with another long quote from a declassified 1960s DoD draft memorandum regarding the risk of not having limited attack options to direct at adversary military capabilities)…

We discuss priorities, timeframes, strategy, and costs through asking the following questions:

* What is the current state of U.S. nuclear modernization, attempts to analyze and buttress it in the last administration, where is there room to make tweaks, if at all, and why should we?

* What is more important to focus on in the near-term, the risk of regional deterrence failure or central deterrence failure?

* How does China’s nuclear expansion change how we think about our current nuclear force and posture? Day to day vs. generated, peacetime vs. crisis?

* How does conventional and nuclear force posture and our nuclear strategy relate to extended deterrence, crisis management, and escalation management within conflict?

* Can we make the math work for a New START follow-on taking into account the possible demands of a larger nuclear force, if one is required? What could that new agreement look like?

* Where can arms control more generally help solve some of the problems that drive consideration of a larger or different nuclear force?

* How will Golden Dome, and developing a capability to defeat limited adversary attacks against the homeland, impact extended deterrence, arms racing and arms control prospects?

Over the course of this conversation, we realized there is so much more to unpack. We will definitely follow up with additional pods and posts to dig further into the nuclear posture topic. In the meantime, we hope you enjoy this episode.

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