April 10, 2019 • 60 mins
Across the span of modern human history, the Arctic has been a desolate, dangerous wasteland of freezing ice, inaccessible waters and more than a bit of myth. Yet as the ice recedes, countries and corporations around the globe are already gearing up to take possession of the region's future trade routes -- and billions of dollars' worth of previously untouchable resources. The pieces are already on the chessboard, with multiple groups accusing each other of cover-ups and deceptive tactics. One questions looms larger and larger with each passing season: Who will control the Arctic?
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
From UFOs to psychic powers and government conspiracies. History is
riddled with unexplained events. You can turn back now or
learn the stuff they don't want you to know. M
(00:24):
Welcome back to the show. My name is Matt Noel
Is on an adventure they call me Ben that we
are joined with our super producer Paul mission controlled decads
and most importantly, you are you. You are here that
makes this stuff they don't want you to know. On
a previous episode, Matt Man, we opened the show, you
(00:44):
and I asking each other where we would travel, if
we could travel anywhere in the world. And we you know,
we don't talk about it too explicitly on the air here,
but we whether for we're or for other endeavors, we
end up traveling like as a group and as individuals
(01:05):
more often than not. You know what I mean? Yes, correct,
And I cannot remember the verdict or our answers to
the question of where we would travel. I'm going to
change mine now to Germany. I want to go back
to Germany. I just want to see what that place
is like. You want to see what their whole thing is.
You have a friend named Holger who who lived with
us for a while who lives out there, I want
to go visit him. Oh that's great. It's always great
(01:25):
to visit a country where you have a connection with
someone who lives there. Yes, exactly. But and you know,
on other previous episodes, Ben, we talked about the shape
of our planet. We did? We did? Is that foreshadowy?
It is? Well, it just to you know, remind people
that yes, this is a large, spherical like structured planet,
(01:46):
as most of the planets are, at least the ones
we've observed, and that means that our planet has these
these two things on it called polls, Right, why would
you go to the polls? In that conversation that I've
had about traveling anywhere um on the world, anywhere terrestrially,
one of the questions I would get is why on
(02:07):
Earth would you want to go to the North Pole?
Or why on Earth would you want to go to Antarctica?
And you know, it's it's a valid question. I would say.
One of the coolest things about going to Antarctica is
that so few people throughout human history have ever made
(02:28):
it there and returned alive there. So you know, bragging
rights neat little stamp on your passport, which is very
dodgy from a legal perspective, or maybe you just really
enjoy the cold, or maybe you're just super into the cold,
you know, and sleeping in your fridge isn't cutting it anymore.
It's true, Matt. You're absolutely right. Planet Earth. This very
(02:49):
basic information. Planet Earth has two poles, and they are
both cold inhospitable alien environments. These polls are places is
where human beings are not built to be. To the
far far north, we have the Arctic surrounded by the
Arctic Circle. To the far far south, we have the
continent of Antarctica. We've done several episodes on Antarctica. I
(03:14):
was surprised to remember we did one. Uh, let's see
what's our what's our most recent one we did? I
couldn't tell you. I know, we've discussed several times the
various attempts to get to to Antarctica and set up bases.
Oh yeah, from the World Wars on. Yeah, what happens
(03:35):
if there's a murder in Antarctica? That was one of
our most recent ones. Something yeah, something, I went along
that one. Then. My favorite one to date has been
What's Beneath the Arctic Ice, which is one of the
videos on our YouTube channel. That was a great one
talking about this the strange research that could be going
on there, because that's really all that happens there, right,
(03:56):
or the lethal diseases that may just wake up you know,
there's something you almost love crafty and about it. But
for the bulk of human history, very very few people,
a relatively few people have managed to visit these parts
of the world. Even fewer people have managed to visit
these parts of the world and return alive to tell
(04:18):
the tale. And you have to ask yourself, of course,
it makes sense that few people have managed to visit
the polls, why on arth would you. Let's talk a
little bit about the Arctic and the Arctic Circle, which
is going to be the primary focus for today's show.
The Arctic is a region of the planet. It's north
of the Arctic Circle, which will define in a moment,
(04:40):
and it includes the Arctic Ocean, Greenland, Baffin Island, other
smaller islands in the north, and the very very northern
areas of Europe, Russia, Alaska, and Canada. That's right, um,
And really, when you're talking about the Arctic, you're talking
about stuff that is a around the Arctic Ocean. So
(05:02):
in there are several seas that are up there along
the Russian coast and several other like bodies of water,
but it's really the Arctic Ocean up there. Um. And
you know, there are really five nations that you're talking
about if you're talking about the Arctic Powers or the
Arctic countries, the controlling powers up there. You've got Russia,
the United States with Alaska, Norway, Denmark and slash, Greenland
(05:27):
and Canada. These are these are the people or the
powers you're talking about when you're when you're going to
be discussing maybe land rights and usage rights of that area.
And that's the that's by the narrowest definition of the
Arctic as a whole. Yes, just down Arctic Ocean and
the five closest nations around it. Yes, the region has
(05:51):
also been defined as the area above the Arctic Circle.
Then in Russia, this area is referred to something that
translates to the High North. And if we if we
go by that definition, then we add some other countries
to the mix. Iceland, Sweden and Finland also become Arctic powers,
(06:13):
even though they don't have a coast on the Arctic Ocean.
So these eight nations together, they form what's called the
Arctic Council, and they've got a great website you can
check out by the way they do the Arctic Council,
it's an Arctic dash Council dot org. What makes the
website great, Matt. It's very difficult to read because of
(06:35):
the color choices that they've made um, but it's also
it's got a lot of cool information in there, and
I don't know, just check it out if you're interested
in exactly what that is. And when we talk about
when we talk about the polls, one thing that makes
the Arctic Circle very, very different from Antarctica is that
(06:59):
this is pretty populated, I mean sparsely populated, but pretty populated.
There about four million people who live there. Of those
four million people, about half a Russian And this is
still the case despite the fact that living in the
High North, living in the High North of Russia is
(07:20):
a is a rough life, and the area has been
losing population for the last several decades. So we've mentioned
the Arctic Circle. What is that It is essentially an
imaginary line. Our species has created it. We all agree
that that's a bully idea, and so we're going to
keep it around. It's located at sixty six point six
(07:41):
degrees north latitude, and it's we use that latitude as
a way to define or demarket the southernmost part of
the Arctic. Every part of the land and sea within
the Arctic Circle is very, very cold, and historically speaking,
much of it has just been covered with ice. In
(08:03):
addition to the temperature, just the regular weather sucks too, Yeah,
it really does. If you see a picture of the
Arctic Circle, why it's called the Arctic Circle because that
latitude makes this really nice circle there, and the ice
is the defining factor that Ben is talking about here.
If you're if you're looking at an image of it
from the top down, it's it's a rough place. So
(08:26):
in the midwinter months in this area, the sun never
really rises at all, It just doesn't. You just don't
have sun essentially, in temperatures stay very very low because
of that, and then they reach massive lows to about
negative fifty degrees fahrenheit at the higher latitudes in this region.
Um because you know, you do have varying latitudes there,
(08:46):
and then in the summer months, like if you go
a little bit further south, you get twenty four hours
of sunlight a day, and that has a pretty big
effect on that region because it's gonna melt all the seed,
you know, the ice that's coming up right that's being
formed there from the super cold region. UM. And this
is one of the main reasons that icebergs end up
(09:07):
breaking off from this like frozen northern area and then
floating south. And this, this, now, this right here is
one of the big things we're gonna talk about later, um,
when it comes to the economics of this region and
some of the uh, the reasons powers are fighting to
control this region because this ice as is melting from
(09:28):
the north and goes south, you can't it's very difficult
to get ships through there. And these these crushing temperatures.
Just to put this in perspective for everybody outside of
what the United States, Myanmar, and Namibia, negative fifty degrees
(09:49):
Fahreneit is negative forty five point five degrees celsius. So
I hope that some of us listening were like negative
fifty as hole. But what is that I hope that
really impacted you brought it over to Celsia. Here are
freezing temperatures where my hand is around my chest and
down there near the floor is where. Yes, yeah, that's great.
(10:13):
You're absolutely right. The icebergs breaking off, the rogue guys
floating around. I call it rogue, but really humans are
the rogue element here. Uh. This stuff makes it very
difficult and dangerous to move ships through, to move vessels
across the water, or it has historically. That has not
(10:35):
stopped people from living in the Arctic Circle. This is
not new territory. There's not a brand new suburb. People
have lived there for thousands and thousands of years. If
we wanted to ballpark, we could see the earliest people
around nine thousand years ago. It's it's an ancient land,
and while they've lived there, it hasn't been easy to
(10:55):
do so. It turned out that despite the thousands of
years of human civilization, admittedly sparse human civilization, but human
civilization nonetheless, no one actually reached the northernmost point. No
one reached the North Pole until the beginning of the
twentieth century, as far as we know. Officially, in nine
a guy named Robert E. Perry became the first documented
(11:18):
human being to physically reach the North Pole. Again, is
brutal part of the world. He was not by any
means the first guy to try it. He was just
the first to make it that we know of. That's right.
And uh, well, and when we say that's what we know,
it's because this guy, Robert E. Peary Perry, Roberty Perry. Uh,
(11:43):
he was well known to us. There were a lot
of other indigenous peoples that were living around this area
far before that, at least that we understand. So if
you're talking about the four million people that currently exist
and live there, you're talking about mostly Inuit, uh, Sammy
and um, you know people who live in Russia and
(12:03):
navigating the Arctic because of the ice that you mentioned, Matt,
and because of the temperatures, it's incredibly dangerous and potentially
incredibly rewarding on a couple of fronts. First, the realm
of commerce, the ability to transport goods across this area
of ocean can present tremendous economic advantages to any nation
(12:26):
or corporation controlling shipping routes. Yeah, because you're also going
to have problems navigating this by air this area because
of the temperature, sometimes because of other issues that you're
dealing with at the northern Pole. So having a giant
ship getting through the water with all of the freight
(12:47):
that it could carry. That would be hugely advantageous. Um.
The other problem here is the realm of military might,
because if you could let's say you're Russia and you
already have roughly fifty scent of the surrounding land mass
of the Arctic Circle, if you can move forward and
fully navigate the entire Arctic Ocean well and easily, then
(13:11):
it really changes something that we've mentioned before over here
called force projection, which is just having the ability to
uh have a ship with weapons on it wherever you
want it to be at any time. And up until recently,
the presence of all that ice made both of these
goals excercy thought exercises, you know what I mean, hypothetical scenarios. Yeah,
(13:36):
not attainable things. And let's take a brief, a brief
side trip all the way down south to Antarctica, just
to mention it, because a lot of these things will
apply to Antarctic as well. Southernmost continent on Earth. It's
the least populoust surprise surprise by far. That's because it's
also the possessor of several superlatives. It is not only
(13:58):
the driest place in the world, there's also the coldest
place in the world and sorry, Chicago, the windiest place
in the world. It's not a country, it has no government,
there is no native population. The entire continent is set
aside for now as a scientific preserve, but that hasn't
stopped countries from laying territorial claims. Britain, France, Norway, Australia
(14:22):
and New Zealand. Chile and Argentina have all laid claims.
Um the Nazi Party or Germany did as well. During
World War Two, military activities banned on this continent, and
it's also a legal to prospect for minerals or oil.
Fifty different nations, including Russia, China, and the US, have
(14:44):
agreed with this Antarctic treaty, but everybody's all about bending
the rules, especially as it gets easier and easier to
find stuff there. So that's how it stands now. We're
gonna spend most of our time on the Arctic today,
but it's important to that some of the same concerns
that apply to the North Pole apply or at least
will apply to the South Pole. And the big question
(15:09):
is what happens when all this changes. So, yeah, we
we've really been just looking at the background for a
lot of this stuff. But what happens when, uh, when
some of the ice melts, when it gets a little warmer,
when some of these uh things that were just bubble
thought bubbles and someone's head in a situation room become
(15:29):
an actual actionable plan. That's what we're looking at today, right.
We've explored a bit of the history, We've taken a
brief look at the present day situation. Yet we are
living in a time rife with Malcolm Gladwell esque tipping points.
They're dangling, loomuring, capering, swinging wildly on the horizon. Yes, sure,
(15:53):
the climate in these areas is changing, but the economic, geopolitical,
and military landscapes are changing as well. And the race
began years ago, it was just not on your mainstream
news networks. It's becoming increasingly apparent that this may well
be one of the next great global contest, and the
(16:13):
outcome of this race may well determine the course of
human affairs for decades, perhaps centuries to come. In short,
who will control the Arctic? And we'll get to that
right after a word from our sponsor. Here's where it
(16:35):
gets crazy. Everybody wants a piece that's it. Yeah, there
are a lot of There are a lot of powers
that are interested, and not just the ones who are
are immediately adjacent to the Arctic circle, right, right, So
we know that different countries have historically laid claim to
the Arctic, right and there have been numerous disputes about this,
(16:58):
which we can explore. But the accelerated trend of changing
climate or temperatures in these areas is also accelerating the
rate of change in geopolitics of the Arctic. So yeah,
if we want to take a quick look at the
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administrations two thousand eighteen report cards,
(17:22):
specifically the Arctic report Card, you can find that at
Arctic dot n o a A dot gov if you
want to follow along here. But in their highlights, they're
talking about surface air temperatures in the Arctic. Now they've
continued to warm it twice the rate relative to the
rest of the globe, which is troubling. The air temperatures
there for the past five years have exceeded all previous
(17:45):
records since nineteen hundred. Uh. And there's a whole bunch
of other stuff in here that you can look at,
specifically talking about see ice. UM, let's see see ice
remained younger, thinner, and covered less area in the than
in the past. The well of lowest extents of the
satellite record have occurred in the last twelve years in
the Arctic, and uh, there's a time like if you
(18:07):
really want to dig deep into the information, you can
find it there on the report card. But essentially it's
just saying that the ice is receding. There's less of it,
it's younger ice, it's not building up the thick levels
that it used to. UM. It really is happening, and
it's happening now and it has been happening. And this
is catastrophic for the creatures, for the wildlife that have
(18:32):
adapted over millions and millions of years to live in
this environment. It's it's terrible for those is this is
this is one of the worst times in polar bear
history to be a polar bear. However, for humans in
the short term, if we look at the checkers game
rather than the chess game, this could be a bonanza,
(18:57):
a cavalcade of money to be made, assuming that we
still practice um the economic ideology of money in the
near future, which we probably will because we're not a
super creative species. This development, should it continue, will unlock
massive hydrocarbon and mineral resources in the Arctic and in
(19:19):
the Continental Shelf. This could also, at the same time
make a year round northern sea rout practical via two
ways Russia's Northeast Passage or Canada's Northwest Passage. And the
reason this is important is because it could cut transit
time to ship from somewhere in East Asia to Europe
(19:41):
or North America's east coast by thirty percent, which may
not sound like a lot, but it's huge. Like if
you ever get a check and taxes at of that,
you know you'll really feel it. Yeah, yes, and and
uh And as we're thinking about of this, it's not
you know, we mentioned Canada's Northwest Passage and Russia Russia's
(20:05):
Northeast Passage. It's not just those countries those nations that
would be using those passages. It's this has wider implications. Yes, yes,
this has wider implications. It goes down to the argument
of what should be considered international waters and what should
be considered sovereign waters right well, and then even if
it's not international waters, uh, countries and nations working together
(20:29):
with trade deals to use those waters, and it's just
there's so many there's so many things to think about
with it. A lot of you know what, now you
mentioned a mat A lot of lawyers are gonna make
a ton of cash off this too. So the thing
is that this could economically be very good for a
(20:50):
ton of nations and a ton of people throughout the world,
depending on how it's played out. However, without sounding two
skept cool of our ability to work together, we do
have to point out that one of the first possibilities
on the horizon, let's say all this ice melts, when
the first possibilities on the horizon is going to be war,
(21:14):
or at least the threat of war. Right, the posturing, well,
let's call it, yeah, posturing, rivalry, brinksmanship, whatever you wanna
call it. What you know what, why don't we call
it Russia and America to electric Arctic boogaloo? Okay, that's great.
Oh yeah, well, if you're listening, you're in the U.
N please feel free to use that just credit our show.
(21:35):
The disappearance of ice in the Arctic immediately changes the
status quo for Russia and the United States in the
following ways. In ways that are very very good for
the Federated States of Russia. Moscow suddenly gets access to
more than four thousand miles of Arctic coastline, and that
(21:56):
would fundamentally transform Russia from a continental to a mayor
of time power. Russia would have access to all weather
bases and immediately start constructing them. By the way, Yeah,
it would be a no brainer to do that. It
would be ridiculous not to do it. This also creates
security risk along Russia's northern border, Alaska and Russia being
(22:20):
very close together. Uh. And previously these concerns just didn't apply.
They were not applicable because of the area's harsh climate.
It's just too much of pain to do stuff there. So,
the prospect of the Arctic Ocean emerging as a new
theater of military rivalry or what did you call it,
(22:42):
met um naughty boats of naughty boat tag? There we go.
That's that's the way to explain board, kids, of naughty
boat tag. This prospect is being taken very very seriously,
(23:03):
not by just the US, but by NATO, by Moscow,
of course, and they're trying to figure out how they're
going to sort this out without entering into what's called
a hot war. Yeah, where stuff is actually fired, right, well,
so where stuff is actually fired from from from one
(23:27):
puppet master to the other puppet master. So like a
proxy war is occurring in Syria, that's where that's where
the hands go out and manipulate the other things, right,
they fire at each other, exactly, Proxy wars in Afghanistan,
proxy wars like in Southeast Asia. These things happen, but
(23:47):
this presents a situation where it could possibly be a
genuine military conflict the likes of which we haven't seen
since World War Two. And just if you want to
have an example of how important naval bases are to
the Russian Federation, Russian Federation of States, how to say
(24:08):
to Russia, Um, you just you can look to several
years ago in Ukraine and Crimea and the handling of
um some of the shipping and naval bases that were
so important in that region to the country, and the
actions that were taken to make sure those were secured.
Just if you if you want to take those as examples,
you can understand how important this stuff is, especially if
(24:32):
then you multiply it by the scale that it would
be in the Arctic. Absolutely, absolutely that's an excellent example
in Crimea itself has It was sad to see that
drop out of the news cycle because the story of
Crimea and self is fascinating, and it doesn't it doesn't start.
(24:55):
You know, just a few years ago when Russia invaded
excuse me, when, um, when patriots with Balaklava's right. Anyway,
there are people some of us listening are saying, all right, guys,
that's a little alarmist, going cold war on us. You're
going cold war, You're going hot war on us, You're
(25:15):
going World War three on us, because that's what you're
essentially implied. Right. The problem is that now we are
not talking about two nations fighting over a border, and
we have not been talking about that sort of thing
in in world politics and world militaries for decades. Everybody
(25:35):
is crewed up. Now, every country is in some sort
of gang to one degree or another. And a war
with European country who's a member of NATO means that
you're beefing with all of NATO. Yeah, and if you
are starting to fight with Russia, you're starting to fight
with all of Russia's buddies as well. And now that
(25:59):
this previous slee inaccessible part of the world maybe up
for grabs. Everybody wants a piece. We talked about the
Arctic Council. There's five d eight nations, so that's Canada,
the Kingdom of Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, the Russian Federation, Sweden,
and the US. But again, when we say everybody wants
(26:20):
a piece, we mean picture picture that Gary Oldman give
everyone or everything, right. China, Japan, and South Korea all
also want to be involved in Arctic affairs, and China
is the PRC People's Republic of China is the biggest
player in this game, or at least the most visible
(26:42):
about it. China recently declared itself to be a quote
near Arctic state, which is weird. Which is weird because
if you look at this scale of just you know,
I'll be I'll be a jerk about it. If you
look at the scale of the solar system, every state
is a nearctic state. Okay, It's like what what is
(27:04):
what is not a Neararctic state? Is um Uganda or
the Bahamas or those not near arctic states? Sure? Sure,
arguably right, but that's that's a very relative term, you
know what I mean? You could you could be you
could be like a little north or south of the
equator and then call yourself a near Antarctic state because
(27:28):
you're closer slightly to Antarctica. The I don't know. I
just I think it's I think it's slippery semantics. But
they say they're a new Arctic state, and in January
they unveiled their plans for a polar silk route, announcing
that the country of China is an important stakeholder in
Arctic affairs. I would agree with that because of just
(27:50):
the sheer volume of stuff shipping to end from that country. Yes,
and that's exactly what they're interested in. They want to
be able to ship everything through there and save that
or however much they would end up saving shipping things.
And since they've been they've had observer status in the
(28:10):
Arctic Council because they've kind of seen this on the horizon,
on the both climate horizon as well as the geopolitical horizon.
Uh So it's just something to keep your eye on
for sure, right, And they've been building influence in this
area for as you said, Matt, for for some time.
(28:33):
But the issue here goes into the question of how
closely trade and military action may or may not be related.
I mean when we talked about deals, like, it's not
just those countries with the Northeast and the Northwest passage,
it's people making deals with those countries and into this effect,
Beijing was talking specifically with Canada and Russia um to
(28:58):
work out some kind of free trade agreement with both
of these countries, with some of the Scandinavian nations that
are up there too, you know, for China essentially to
infuse money into some of the bigger projects that are
happening in those areas. Specifically, there's one called the Yamal
l n G project that which has to do with
natural gas and oil oil capturing UH through Russia. And
(29:23):
there are other projects in the US in Alaska they're doing,
you know, pretty much the same thing and UH and
and as well as Canada. And it's just it's China,
like you said, Ben, trying to have its seat at
the table, to get in on the ground floor with
these projects as investors, to then have a stake in
(29:43):
other parts of it. Right, right, if the if the
legal framework of geopolitics will work, then surely the financial
framework of who owes who money will will deliver right there.
And let's real quick on the timeline here. Hoarding to
NASA global climate models predict the Arctic will be ice
(30:04):
free during the summer months by the middle of this century,
so by and that's very much a ballpark that could
be that that could mean anywhere from to you know.
So it's so weird time scales because it feels so
long term and yet that is fully short term. Yes,
(30:27):
that is not long at all. Hey man, you'll probably
you'll probably be here. I don't know. Maybe you should
sketch go ahead and link book your tickets now cruise
you can take it on a Chinese icebreaker perhaps. Uh.
The snow Dragon two and the snow Dragon one have
(30:48):
already been created and there's an expedition scheduled for the
first half of This is also happening in This is
happening in a erose sum environment. To be absolutely clear,
what that means is that there there's a finite amount
of power, there's a finite amount of territory, and there's
(31:13):
a finite amount of resource to be extracted. So what
there are we'll get into right the annual the economy
of this region could exceed four hundred and fifty billion
dollars US. But we're bringing up just that point because
the government of China has been quick to capitalize on
(31:33):
what they see as um lack of expertise and interest
from the US, from Uncle Sam, from Washing d C.
And that's not related to and let's not related to
any particular administration. These are big boy rules. We're talking
about the way other countries look at each other. But
(31:54):
real politics tells us other countries only care about what's
happening domestically a different country if it will help their
bottom line or give them an opportunity to require more
power and influence on the global stage. Can I use
this right? Can use otherwise? Why why are you telling
(32:15):
me we have problems of our own? Says every country?
So resources, that's why. That's that's ultimately what it comes
down to. Almost every time on the show, Yeah, almost
every time, not every time, almost every time in history.
You know, it might be dressed up as values or
interest or national security, national security or someone's religion makes
(32:42):
you know, gets us in a stink or whatever, but really,
ultimately that's that's all window dressing. It's all it's all
a nice side to catch up to the the actual fries,
which are resources. So yes, they're tremendous shipping in military
force projection ADVAN just to controlling the Arctic. But why
(33:03):
are those important? Because it boils down to what can
you get from there and what can you move across there?
That's it resources. But why are they so important? Let's
get into that right after a quick word from our sponsor.
(33:24):
So here's the thing. You nailed it in one word,
that resources. Every every conflict is about resources, right, We've
we've said this before. We don't just mean it in
post World War two. We don't just mean it in
terms of like Russia grabbing crimea or something. We mean
(33:48):
throughout human history, throughout the span of our civilization, virtually
every large scale conflict has been about resources. Now it'll
be dressed up, you know, there will be some window dressing,
especially in democracies, right though. It will be like, oh,
it's our values, right, or it's what's another one, it's
um it it presents a national security risk here we go,
(34:12):
or you know, if you go a little further back,
these people's religion is bad to us. Yeah, that lumber
that's all over there, that has nothing to do with it.
That control of the bay has nothing to do with it.
The ability to send things down this river because you know,
don't worry about that. Uh. Catholicism bad and of course
(34:34):
religious and uh racial discrimination is a real thing. It's
also an avenue to justify taking stuff from people. It's
a lever you can pull. It's yeah, it's very much.
War is very much a stuff oriented thing. Are we
too cynical or is this? I mean this, this feels
(34:56):
so real to me, and I've seen it happen so
many times throughout history. I'm not I'm not being too
cynical in these thoughts, am I? Because I really do
feel like this is just the truth. I'm the worst
person to ask because I completely agree with you, Matt.
I mean, there are there Okay, So yes, it's true.
There are tremendous shipping and military force projection advantages to
(35:17):
having control over all or some of the Arctic, especially
those shipping routes. But why are they important? Why it's
not bragging rights. It ultimately boils down to resource extraction.
What can we get from there? What can we move
across there? In two thousand and eight, the U S
Geological Service estimated that the Arctic alone contains more than
(35:39):
one thousand, six hundred sixty nine trillion cubic feet of
natural gas reserves oh m G. So this amount is massive.
It's it's about thirty of all of the world's remaining
supply of natural gas that has not been in some
way found developed or begun to be extracted. This is
(36:04):
um That number is almost four times the entire United
States reserves that exists right now. And that this number
also does not include what are called methane hydrates on
the cbed, which can also be converted to a very
valuable resource. The addition of this stuff, if it ever
becomes cost effective to to extract it, which is a
(36:27):
big deal here, which is a huge deal, could boost
potential reserves exponentially. In addition, they're probably around forty four
billion barrels of natural gas liquids and nine billion barrels
of oil. That's about of the undeveloped oil reserves on
the planet. In one place, the Geological Service estimates the
(36:52):
pent of the Arctics hydrocarbons are offshore. Sixty of the
Arctic oil is in Russian territory tory, and not just
in the territory that the Russian government thinks belongs to it,
which is different, but in the territory that everybody sort
of agrees belongs to it. So according to their surveys,
(37:12):
the Russian surveys, more than of the hydrocarbon reserves are
located in the Arctic zone of the Siberian Continental Shelf,
And without going into the weeds too much, this is
a commercial powder keg. This could guarantee Russia's seat at
the table. One of the criticisms that you'll hear about
(37:36):
Russia pretty often is that Russia is pretending to be
a world power or a superpower. It's got a lot
of domestic problems. Again, you know, most other world leaders
care about that to the point that it might present
an opportunity for them, but otherwise it's like, not my job,
(37:57):
not my problem. And so the criticism that you will
hear about Russia is that they have two things that
give them a seat at the table, new and nuclear
arsenal and gas reserves hydrocarbon reserves. So if they were
able to exponentially increase the amount of stuff that they
(38:21):
control in the in the hydrocarbon economy, then they also
they also increase their prominence and importance and influence in
world affairs. You know, there were times a few years back,
not so long ago, in recent history, while we were alive,
when Russia could literally just turn off the gas supply
(38:43):
to a large swath of Europe just if they wanted to,
just you know, if like fun, like when do you
else are you doing on a Friday? His power, his power.
It's not clear, however, yet, whether these reserves are whether
it makes sense to get them right now. Yeah, well, yeah,
that's the whole thing. It's building the infrastructure and the
(39:06):
having the technology to be able to extract that stuff
from the depths where it exists in those cold temperatures
and all the all the other factors. Even if it
begins melting, it's still a tremendous It would be a
tremendous achievement to be able to get that, and it
would cost so much money, which is one of the
biggest problems here. There's this thing called the International Energy
(39:29):
Agency or the i e A. We love to to
read those, and they believe that in order to make
this economically feasible to do to extract this, you know,
the oil and natural gas here, the average price essentially
of oil would have to be around a hundred and
twenty dollars per barrel for the development for this to
(39:50):
even work to to make to have it make sense,
you can make money back, so you're not just throwing
money into the Arctic in order to make some back.
And for perspective, right now, as we're recording it, crude
oil probably averaged around sixty five bucks a barrel or
so in February of this year, so oil would almost
(40:12):
have to double. You gotta make some calls to the
big heads and talk to them. I think, yeah, they're
also cutting production right, and Russia is part of the conversation.
Oh man, different show. So there's also the cost of
creating all the infrastructure you need to get this stuff
(40:33):
out right. This is no longer Beverly Hillbilly's land. Kudos
to anyone I got that reference. They will have to
build around one trillion US dollars worth or sixty nine
trillion rubles worth of stuff two extracted oil to process
it to make it something that they can sell, and
(40:55):
they don't have this country. Russia does not have the
technology so far as we know, to exploit those deep
water deposits. Yet Additionally, a lot of the stuff they
do have to, you know, to extract energy from this
part of the world. Was not designed to cope with
this part of the world melting. Yeah, it's designed to
(41:16):
be in the frozen areas. You can see some that
thing that we mentioned a little earlier, the Yamal l
n G project, you can actually see images of what
uh some of the some of it looks like. And
it is just built on essentially ice. I mean, it's
just built on ice inside ice. And if that were
(41:36):
all to melt, it would it would quickly change how
that how that whole system functions, how that facility functions. Um,
it could create a large issue. Yeah, absolutely, because there's
gonna be a limital space. There's gonna be a transition period.
Earth does not work on light switches, you know what
(41:57):
I mean. What's gonna happen is that stuff will stuff
will begin to melt, and eventually, when it melts to
a to a high enough degree, there will be avenues
to access this hidden oil, these hidden hydroc carbons. But
before it reaches that point, it's it will just be
(42:18):
muddy and things will be not quite accessible. But all
this stuff we built before will not work. So there's
going to be this worse before it gets better scenario,
and that's when the that's when the series of battles
will start. These will be happening concurrently, the battles already
started in the courtroom. That's where a lot of international
(42:40):
battles start. Primary disagreements here, as you already point out, Matt,
concern what we think of as international waters and what
we think of as sovereign waters or territory controlled by
a single nation or and on calling and now eventually
a single corporation. So conflicting claims the Arctic date back
to least nine five, when Canada said that, all right,
(43:03):
we're gonna say our maritime border extends to cover everything
from sixty degrees west to one degrees west and then
northward all the way to the North Pole and the
North Pole remember this nine So the North Pole had
just been reached in nineteen o nine and Canada was like,
let's get on it. So they also claim these various
(43:27):
channels and straits that constitute what we call the Northwest
Passage are part of its internal waters, not international. You
want to travel on this road, you have to play
with us. The US and other countries have argued that
that this is complete malarchy. There's an international waterway. You
have to let us go free and unencumbered, which means
(43:49):
we can come and go as we please. The This
is one example. There are a ton of other examples.
Rushes and a lot of them because they control a
lot of the coastline. Now the battle has been moving
forward symbolically. In two thousand and five, the Russian Arctica Expedition,
which was the first manned descent to the sea floor
(44:09):
beneath the North Pole. And this is baller by the way,
they planted a Russian flag made of titanium on the
Arctic floor at the geographical poll. That's that's what's up.
I thought it was yeah, I thought it was a
power move. The US and Canada Denmark thought so too,
but they didn't think it was cool. And the Kremlins,
they said, what are you doing. You can't just say
(44:32):
this belongs to you, and and the Kremlin said it
was not asserting severenity. And this is where we found
this excellent caddy quote from Russian Foreign Minister Sergi Lavorov.
We're not throwing flags around. We just do what other
discoverers did. The purpose of the expedition is not to
(44:53):
skates whatever rights of Russia, but to prove that our
shelf extends to the north Pole. By the way, on
the Moon, it was the same, like remember when you
planted that area flag on the Moon. It's just because
we got here first. Come on, Like we sent a
(45:13):
submersible down and we put a giant, awesome titanium flag
down there. It's it's strange, But these symbols are important,
right are they are? And that's why in Antarctica you
can still get a passport stamp from Great Britain or
something or you or these countries will operate post offices.
So what happens when the weather warms, it brings hotter wars. Historically,
(45:36):
the Arctic Ocean has not been a significant military theater
for the US, which means it's not a place where
we put our weapons of destruction and our weapons of war.
At the height of the Cold War, US and Soviet
ballistic missile submarines hid below the polar ice caps. And
you know, played this game of cat and mouse, right,
(45:58):
you know, the it's the can at least harken back
to images of Hunter October right right, and could call
and both sides did have early warning networks, and they
had armies defending them. But these early warning networks had
while they had anti submarine equipment and armament, the main
(46:20):
thing they we're looking out for was a way too,
no as soon as possible if a missile had been launched,
because the biggest significance of the Arctic for both sides
of the Cold War was this. It is it was
the shortest shipping route for boats, right if you could
get rid of the ice. But it's the shortest flight
(46:42):
path for an ICBM or intercontinental ballistic missile and other
nuclear missiles. So if if a missile is fired from
Russia to the US, that's how it's going to get
that's the shortest way for it to get there, or
from Alaska or the Russian Federation, or from a Alaska
to the Russians, yeah, or from any submarine that's hanging
(47:04):
out in the Arctic Ocean. Right. So in recent years
the increase uh in temperature across the Arctic has diminished
that polar ice cap. As you said, Bet, the northeast
passage right now in Russia's Arctic seas can can be
used for two or three months of the year and
(47:24):
even longer if you have an icebreaker like China does,
like Russia does. Canada's Northwest passage is not near as
posh shallow, it's prone to getting clogged by ice, but
it too has seen some more commercial traffic because there's
less and less ice around. And now the Arctic Ocean,
because of this warming, is emerging as the next place
(47:49):
where people were, well, I say people where the Russian
government and the US government are going to butt heads.
It is preposterous that this is not a bigger deal
right now. Because Russia controls the board. That's what makes
it different. Russia is way more qualified and way more
(48:10):
competent for any kind of when in regards to any
kind of conflict here in this area of the world. Well, yeah,
if you look at the you just think about the
naval fleets of the US, and then you think about
the the land area of Alaska, which is the only
US controlled territory up there. If you just look at
(48:30):
a picture of the Arctic Circle and think about that alone,
then think about just the history of of operating up there,
and then all of the naval you know, a lot
of the Pacific fleets, the you know, the different fleets
of the US has it's just a whole different game,
and Russia has been doing it for a while. Yes, yeah,
that's a good way to put it. According to Andrew Holland,
(48:51):
who is CEO of the American Security Project, the Arctic
is the only theater of operations where the U. S.
Navy is out house by a pure competitor. Russian surface
warships have demonstrated the ability to carry out complex combined
operations in the high North, while the American Navy maintains
a policy that only submarines operate above the bearing straight.
(49:14):
There you go, complex combined operations. Oh hollydood, you're listening,
No offense, I just like that voice. So yeah. Since
two thousand and eight, Russia's Arctic development has been at
least according to the Pentagon assertive force posture, with constant
military drilling and quote provocative air maneuvering. So Russia has
(49:39):
four different fleets Baltic, Pacific, Black Sea, and Arctic. The
Arctic Fleet or Northern Fleet, has eighty ships. Thirty five
of those are submarines and others are surface ships led
by a battle cruiser. But over the last decade it's
been increasingly expanded. It's been improved star in two thousand twelve.
(50:01):
It's regularly patrolled a two thousand mile stretch of the
Northern Sea. And more importantly, Russia operates a fleet of
forty icebreakers. At forty more icebreakers than the rest of
the world icebreaker fleet combined. Sounds familiar to the US
when you just think about defense spending and that kind
(50:23):
of thing, and yeah, exactly, but then well, we do
have icebreakers. We have three. Uncle Sam has three icebreakers, uh,
and they need a lot of help in turn, like
the icebreakers themselves. So if a war breaks out, if
a physical or hot boar does break out over disputes
(50:44):
in the Arctic, it will almost certainly become a global conflict.
NATO will be involved, The dominoes will start to fall,
as the US alone would be out classed, right, and
then we would see other countries who are aware of this,
hungry for the opportunity, would also insert themselves in some way,
(51:04):
because chaos is a chaos is fertile soil for opportunity,
you know what I mean. Military planners envision rivalry and
perhaps conflict between NATO powers, the US and Russia, But
eventually they say China will get in the game because
(51:24):
that country is very, very sensitive to resource acquisition and
can detect minerals from miles and decades away. Yeah, they
know where it is, they know it exists, and they're
gonna find a way to be a part of it. Right,
that's the idea, right, And the same sort of stuff
is happening in Antarctica. If current economic projections hold true,
(51:49):
there are going to be some very dangerous times ahead,
especially for the average person. Right, They're going to be
global bus of a of these bubbles will pop and
if that happens, that's going to make different different countries
increasingly desperate to obtain control and serenity over these things.
(52:11):
And that means that economic disaster could accelerate this timeline.
Climate change is already accelerating, sure, changing temperatures whatever you
want to call them, are already accelerating it. But the
economic stuff could be even more powerful on this timeline
because what was that number, A dred and twenty dollars barrel?
(52:32):
Is that when it becomes something like that, Okay, so
what if it just spikes and one day, one day
it's uh barrel, then everybody's gonna be trying to get
it and the drilling starts tomorrow. Yeah, that's what happens,
you know. Wow. Okay, so that's where we are right
now with this. Um. You know, one thing I was
(52:53):
wondering about as we were researching this was Denmark and
Greenland because if you look at a map, you see
how large Greenland is and how much ice covers that
that uh piece of land, and there are resources there,
a lot of resources. If that also melts, it makes
me wonder if someone eventually one of these superpowers eventually
(53:14):
invades Denmark's control at least over Greenland. UM, something like that,
because you know, and we've we only barely touched Antarctica
in this episode because we've talked about it so many
times before. But as Ben said right at the end, there,
it's it's the same thing. That's a huge continent, and
if some of that ice is melting, no matter how
(53:35):
high the water is rising, Um, we're gonna be trying
to get over there and discover things and find more
resources because they're there. We be not just Uncle Sam
or not just as humans. Yeah, we also beating you,
you and me. Oh yeah, we're gonna be down there
trying to get as much titanium to make more flags
as we possibly can. Whether you are a president, a peasant,
(54:00):
a prime minister, or a pioneer, one thing is for sure.
Everyone is waiting for the day that the ice smelts
and doesn't come back in winter, which is which is
a scary thing. The the they and the stuff they
don't want you to know for today's episode is multidimensional.
I mean, there there were companies that don't want you
(54:23):
to know the ongoing negotiations they're having with their own governments.
There are military contractors who don't want you to know
the kind of stuff they're building. Uh, And there are
of course governments who don't want you to know what
they're planning, especially if you work for another government. It
always reminds me of that story or that that old proverb.
(54:45):
You know, when elephants make war, only the grass suffers.
The majority of humanity. Is the grass here just getting trampled,
just getting trampled? Quite possibly, or who knows, maybe maybe
our species will say what's the best way to um
what what's the best way to normalize this and create
a situation where there's not a global catastrophe, And that's
(55:08):
that's quite possible. I mean, no one really wants a
third World war. You want to manage conflicts and ways
to assertively negotiate their their way to the biggest slice
of the pie, whatever the pies ingredients are, and sometimes
you fight, you see what happens, and increasingly hydrocarbons in
(55:30):
that pie are not as lucrative or interesting. Yeah, at present,
you know in the moment, in the moment, and that
goes into whether or not technology is being suppressed, and
that goes into um whether or not we're getting real
numbers about the petrol industry in general. But those are
stories for another day. If we wanted to end on
(55:53):
a less dystopian scary note, we can tell you that
you can travel as a private citizen to Antarctica. From
an environmental perspective, it's a fascinating place to visit, or
so we hear. You do get price breaks if you
travel in the group. Would highly recommend that because it's
quite expensive and it's something you would have to save
(56:15):
up for, but hey, it's a that's a cool goal
if you can achieve it once in a lifetime experience. Yeah,
if you don't feel like saving up the money, but
you feel like spending a lot of time there. It
is remarkably I don't want to say it's too easy,
but it's remarkably less difficult than I thought. To get
(56:36):
hired as a you know, like a cook or support
staff in a research station. Do it and then write
to us like every day, make a make a diary,
tell us who you think the hidden alien is? Or
do you want to start a podcast to go on
that journey? And then we'll just well start a new
podcast with speaking people going on that journey. One last
(56:56):
thing for you close today's episode. Uh, flat earthers are
launching your trip to and alretic a matte. Did you
see that? Yes, they are going to figure out once
and for all whether or not this Earth is flat
and whether or not you can reach the end of
the Earth. And they're gonna go down there to find
(57:16):
essentially the Game of Thrones wall basically, but if on
the other side of the wall there was nothing just
space essentially, right, it's the ice wall. It's supposed to
uh supposed to be several thousand feet thick, and it
goes a hundred and sixty four ft high perhaps, and
it's this thing that rings the entire planet. And there's
(57:36):
a group of people who are going to be there soon.
They're they're taking off soon allegedly right. The suppoosed ice
Wall is a couple of thousand feet thick und sixty
four ft high and surrounds the planet. This is planned
for next year for it's organized by the Flat Earth
International Conference or f e i C. And just so
(57:59):
you know, core into this article from the Sun, which
is uh oh excuse me, Yes, he's an original article
posted by the Sun that was in the New York Post. Uh.
YouTube star logan Paul, the guy that everybody just loves.
He says he wants to find the facts and also
join them, so yeehaw eh. And maybe maybe our boy
(58:22):
is gonna be there. Who's our boy, uh rapper that
we talked about. What's his name? Bob? Oh? Yeah, yeah,
maybe he'll be there as well, yes, uh And maybe
you will be there if you're listening. If so, we'd
love to hear about your adventures. We hope that you
enjoyed this episode, and if you live in the northern climes,
we'd love to hear more about your experiences. Do you
(58:46):
feel like this is alarmist? Do how how quick do
you feel the ice is or is not melting, and
how do you see things changing in a world without
northern ice? Let us know. You can find us on Instagram, Facebook,
and Twitter. You can talk to our favorite part of
the show, your fellow listeners on our Facebook page. Here's
where it gets crazy where conspiracy stuff show at Instagram
(59:08):
and you can find me at ben bullon on Instagram.
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(59:30):
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(59:51):
good old fashioned email. We are conspiracy at how stuff
works dot com, m
From UFOs to psychic powers and government conspiracies. History is
riddled with unexplained events. You can turn back now or
learn the stuff they don't want you to know. M
(00:24):
Welcome back to the show. My name is Matt Noel
Is on an adventure they call me Ben that we
are joined with our super producer Paul mission controlled decads
and most importantly, you are you. You are here that
makes this stuff they don't want you to know. On
a previous episode, Matt Man, we opened the show, you
(00:44):
and I asking each other where we would travel, if
we could travel anywhere in the world. And we you know,
we don't talk about it too explicitly on the air here,
but we whether for we're or for other endeavors, we
end up traveling like as a group and as individuals
(01:05):
more often than not. You know what I mean? Yes, correct,
And I cannot remember the verdict or our answers to
the question of where we would travel. I'm going to
change mine now to Germany. I want to go back
to Germany. I just want to see what that place
is like. You want to see what their whole thing is.
You have a friend named Holger who who lived with
us for a while who lives out there, I want
to go visit him. Oh that's great. It's always great
(01:25):
to visit a country where you have a connection with
someone who lives there. Yes, exactly. But and you know,
on other previous episodes, Ben, we talked about the shape
of our planet. We did? We did? Is that foreshadowy?
It is? Well, it just to you know, remind people
that yes, this is a large, spherical like structured planet,
(01:46):
as most of the planets are, at least the ones
we've observed, and that means that our planet has these
these two things on it called polls, Right, why would
you go to the polls? In that conversation that I've
had about traveling anywhere um on the world, anywhere terrestrially,
one of the questions I would get is why on
(02:07):
Earth would you want to go to the North Pole?
Or why on Earth would you want to go to Antarctica?
And you know, it's it's a valid question. I would say.
One of the coolest things about going to Antarctica is
that so few people throughout human history have ever made
(02:28):
it there and returned alive there. So you know, bragging
rights neat little stamp on your passport, which is very
dodgy from a legal perspective, or maybe you just really
enjoy the cold, or maybe you're just super into the cold,
you know, and sleeping in your fridge isn't cutting it anymore.
It's true, Matt. You're absolutely right. Planet Earth. This very
(02:49):
basic information. Planet Earth has two poles, and they are
both cold inhospitable alien environments. These polls are places is
where human beings are not built to be. To the
far far north, we have the Arctic surrounded by the
Arctic Circle. To the far far south, we have the
continent of Antarctica. We've done several episodes on Antarctica. I
(03:14):
was surprised to remember we did one. Uh, let's see
what's our what's our most recent one we did? I
couldn't tell you. I know, we've discussed several times the
various attempts to get to to Antarctica and set up bases.
Oh yeah, from the World Wars on. Yeah, what happens
(03:35):
if there's a murder in Antarctica? That was one of
our most recent ones. Something yeah, something, I went along
that one. Then. My favorite one to date has been
What's Beneath the Arctic Ice, which is one of the
videos on our YouTube channel. That was a great one
talking about this the strange research that could be going
on there, because that's really all that happens there, right,
(03:56):
or the lethal diseases that may just wake up you know,
there's something you almost love crafty and about it. But
for the bulk of human history, very very few people,
a relatively few people have managed to visit these parts
of the world. Even fewer people have managed to visit
these parts of the world and return alive to tell
(04:18):
the tale. And you have to ask yourself, of course,
it makes sense that few people have managed to visit
the polls, why on arth would you. Let's talk a
little bit about the Arctic and the Arctic Circle, which
is going to be the primary focus for today's show.
The Arctic is a region of the planet. It's north
of the Arctic Circle, which will define in a moment,
(04:40):
and it includes the Arctic Ocean, Greenland, Baffin Island, other
smaller islands in the north, and the very very northern
areas of Europe, Russia, Alaska, and Canada. That's right, um,
And really, when you're talking about the Arctic, you're talking
about stuff that is a around the Arctic Ocean. So
(05:02):
in there are several seas that are up there along
the Russian coast and several other like bodies of water,
but it's really the Arctic Ocean up there. Um. And
you know, there are really five nations that you're talking
about if you're talking about the Arctic Powers or the
Arctic countries, the controlling powers up there. You've got Russia,
the United States with Alaska, Norway, Denmark and slash, Greenland
(05:27):
and Canada. These are these are the people or the
powers you're talking about when you're when you're going to
be discussing maybe land rights and usage rights of that area.
And that's the that's by the narrowest definition of the
Arctic as a whole. Yes, just down Arctic Ocean and
the five closest nations around it. Yes, the region has
(05:51):
also been defined as the area above the Arctic Circle.
Then in Russia, this area is referred to something that
translates to the High North. And if we if we
go by that definition, then we add some other countries
to the mix. Iceland, Sweden and Finland also become Arctic powers,
(06:13):
even though they don't have a coast on the Arctic Ocean.
So these eight nations together, they form what's called the
Arctic Council, and they've got a great website you can
check out by the way they do the Arctic Council,
it's an Arctic dash Council dot org. What makes the
website great, Matt. It's very difficult to read because of
(06:35):
the color choices that they've made um, but it's also
it's got a lot of cool information in there, and
I don't know, just check it out if you're interested
in exactly what that is. And when we talk about
when we talk about the polls, one thing that makes
the Arctic Circle very, very different from Antarctica is that
(06:59):
this is pretty populated, I mean sparsely populated, but pretty populated.
There about four million people who live there. Of those
four million people, about half a Russian And this is
still the case despite the fact that living in the
High North, living in the High North of Russia is
(07:20):
a is a rough life, and the area has been
losing population for the last several decades. So we've mentioned
the Arctic Circle. What is that It is essentially an
imaginary line. Our species has created it. We all agree
that that's a bully idea, and so we're going to
keep it around. It's located at sixty six point six
(07:41):
degrees north latitude, and it's we use that latitude as
a way to define or demarket the southernmost part of
the Arctic. Every part of the land and sea within
the Arctic Circle is very, very cold, and historically speaking,
much of it has just been covered with ice. In
(08:03):
addition to the temperature, just the regular weather sucks too, Yeah,
it really does. If you see a picture of the
Arctic Circle, why it's called the Arctic Circle because that
latitude makes this really nice circle there, and the ice
is the defining factor that Ben is talking about here.
If you're if you're looking at an image of it
from the top down, it's it's a rough place. So
(08:26):
in the midwinter months in this area, the sun never
really rises at all, It just doesn't. You just don't
have sun essentially, in temperatures stay very very low because
of that, and then they reach massive lows to about
negative fifty degrees fahrenheit at the higher latitudes in this region.
Um because you know, you do have varying latitudes there,
(08:46):
and then in the summer months, like if you go
a little bit further south, you get twenty four hours
of sunlight a day, and that has a pretty big
effect on that region because it's gonna melt all the seed,
you know, the ice that's coming up right that's being
formed there from the super cold region. UM. And this
is one of the main reasons that icebergs end up
(09:07):
breaking off from this like frozen northern area and then
floating south. And this, this, now, this right here is
one of the big things we're gonna talk about later, um,
when it comes to the economics of this region and
some of the uh, the reasons powers are fighting to
control this region because this ice as is melting from
(09:28):
the north and goes south, you can't it's very difficult
to get ships through there. And these these crushing temperatures.
Just to put this in perspective for everybody outside of
what the United States, Myanmar, and Namibia, negative fifty degrees
(09:49):
Fahreneit is negative forty five point five degrees celsius. So
I hope that some of us listening were like negative
fifty as hole. But what is that I hope that
really impacted you brought it over to Celsia. Here are
freezing temperatures where my hand is around my chest and
down there near the floor is where. Yes, yeah, that's great.
(10:13):
You're absolutely right. The icebergs breaking off, the rogue guys
floating around. I call it rogue, but really humans are
the rogue element here. Uh. This stuff makes it very
difficult and dangerous to move ships through, to move vessels
across the water, or it has historically. That has not
(10:35):
stopped people from living in the Arctic Circle. This is
not new territory. There's not a brand new suburb. People
have lived there for thousands and thousands of years. If
we wanted to ballpark, we could see the earliest people
around nine thousand years ago. It's it's an ancient land,
and while they've lived there, it hasn't been easy to
(10:55):
do so. It turned out that despite the thousands of
years of human civilization, admittedly sparse human civilization, but human
civilization nonetheless, no one actually reached the northernmost point. No
one reached the North Pole until the beginning of the
twentieth century, as far as we know. Officially, in nine
a guy named Robert E. Perry became the first documented
(11:18):
human being to physically reach the North Pole. Again, is
brutal part of the world. He was not by any
means the first guy to try it. He was just
the first to make it that we know of. That's right.
And uh, well, and when we say that's what we know,
it's because this guy, Robert E. Peary Perry, Roberty Perry. Uh,
(11:43):
he was well known to us. There were a lot
of other indigenous peoples that were living around this area
far before that, at least that we understand. So if
you're talking about the four million people that currently exist
and live there, you're talking about mostly Inuit, uh, Sammy
and um, you know people who live in Russia and
(12:03):
navigating the Arctic because of the ice that you mentioned, Matt,
and because of the temperatures, it's incredibly dangerous and potentially
incredibly rewarding on a couple of fronts. First, the realm
of commerce, the ability to transport goods across this area
of ocean can present tremendous economic advantages to any nation
(12:26):
or corporation controlling shipping routes. Yeah, because you're also going
to have problems navigating this by air this area because
of the temperature, sometimes because of other issues that you're
dealing with at the northern Pole. So having a giant
ship getting through the water with all of the freight
(12:47):
that it could carry. That would be hugely advantageous. Um.
The other problem here is the realm of military might,
because if you could let's say you're Russia and you
already have roughly fifty scent of the surrounding land mass
of the Arctic Circle, if you can move forward and
fully navigate the entire Arctic Ocean well and easily, then
(13:11):
it really changes something that we've mentioned before over here
called force projection, which is just having the ability to
uh have a ship with weapons on it wherever you
want it to be at any time. And up until recently,
the presence of all that ice made both of these
goals excercy thought exercises, you know what I mean, hypothetical scenarios. Yeah,
(13:36):
not attainable things. And let's take a brief, a brief
side trip all the way down south to Antarctica, just
to mention it, because a lot of these things will
apply to Antarctic as well. Southernmost continent on Earth. It's
the least populoust surprise surprise by far. That's because it's
also the possessor of several superlatives. It is not only
(13:58):
the driest place in the world, there's also the coldest
place in the world and sorry, Chicago, the windiest place
in the world. It's not a country, it has no government,
there is no native population. The entire continent is set
aside for now as a scientific preserve, but that hasn't
stopped countries from laying territorial claims. Britain, France, Norway, Australia
(14:22):
and New Zealand. Chile and Argentina have all laid claims.
Um the Nazi Party or Germany did as well. During
World War Two, military activities banned on this continent, and
it's also a legal to prospect for minerals or oil.
Fifty different nations, including Russia, China, and the US, have
(14:44):
agreed with this Antarctic treaty, but everybody's all about bending
the rules, especially as it gets easier and easier to
find stuff there. So that's how it stands now. We're
gonna spend most of our time on the Arctic today,
but it's important to that some of the same concerns
that apply to the North Pole apply or at least
will apply to the South Pole. And the big question
(15:09):
is what happens when all this changes. So, yeah, we
we've really been just looking at the background for a
lot of this stuff. But what happens when, uh, when
some of the ice melts, when it gets a little warmer,
when some of these uh things that were just bubble
thought bubbles and someone's head in a situation room become
(15:29):
an actual actionable plan. That's what we're looking at today, right.
We've explored a bit of the history, We've taken a
brief look at the present day situation. Yet we are
living in a time rife with Malcolm Gladwell esque tipping points.
They're dangling, loomuring, capering, swinging wildly on the horizon. Yes, sure,
(15:53):
the climate in these areas is changing, but the economic, geopolitical,
and military landscapes are changing as well. And the race
began years ago, it was just not on your mainstream
news networks. It's becoming increasingly apparent that this may well
be one of the next great global contest, and the
(16:13):
outcome of this race may well determine the course of
human affairs for decades, perhaps centuries to come. In short,
who will control the Arctic? And we'll get to that
right after a word from our sponsor. Here's where it
(16:35):
gets crazy. Everybody wants a piece that's it. Yeah, there
are a lot of There are a lot of powers
that are interested, and not just the ones who are
are immediately adjacent to the Arctic circle, right, right, So
we know that different countries have historically laid claim to
the Arctic, right and there have been numerous disputes about this,
(16:58):
which we can explore. But the accelerated trend of changing
climate or temperatures in these areas is also accelerating the
rate of change in geopolitics of the Arctic. So yeah,
if we want to take a quick look at the
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administrations two thousand eighteen report cards,
(17:22):
specifically the Arctic report Card, you can find that at
Arctic dot n o a A dot gov if you
want to follow along here. But in their highlights, they're
talking about surface air temperatures in the Arctic. Now they've
continued to warm it twice the rate relative to the
rest of the globe, which is troubling. The air temperatures
there for the past five years have exceeded all previous
(17:45):
records since nineteen hundred. Uh. And there's a whole bunch
of other stuff in here that you can look at,
specifically talking about see ice. UM, let's see see ice
remained younger, thinner, and covered less area in the than
in the past. The well of lowest extents of the
satellite record have occurred in the last twelve years in
the Arctic, and uh, there's a time like if you
(18:07):
really want to dig deep into the information, you can
find it there on the report card. But essentially it's
just saying that the ice is receding. There's less of it,
it's younger ice, it's not building up the thick levels
that it used to. UM. It really is happening, and
it's happening now and it has been happening. And this
is catastrophic for the creatures, for the wildlife that have
(18:32):
adapted over millions and millions of years to live in
this environment. It's it's terrible for those is this is
this is one of the worst times in polar bear
history to be a polar bear. However, for humans in
the short term, if we look at the checkers game
rather than the chess game, this could be a bonanza,
(18:57):
a cavalcade of money to be made, assuming that we
still practice um the economic ideology of money in the
near future, which we probably will because we're not a
super creative species. This development, should it continue, will unlock
massive hydrocarbon and mineral resources in the Arctic and in
(19:19):
the Continental Shelf. This could also, at the same time
make a year round northern sea rout practical via two
ways Russia's Northeast Passage or Canada's Northwest Passage. And the
reason this is important is because it could cut transit
time to ship from somewhere in East Asia to Europe
(19:41):
or North America's east coast by thirty percent, which may
not sound like a lot, but it's huge. Like if
you ever get a check and taxes at of that,
you know you'll really feel it. Yeah, yes, and and
uh And as we're thinking about of this, it's not
you know, we mentioned Canada's Northwest Passage and Russia Russia's
(20:05):
Northeast Passage. It's not just those countries those nations that
would be using those passages. It's this has wider implications. Yes, yes,
this has wider implications. It goes down to the argument
of what should be considered international waters and what should
be considered sovereign waters right well, and then even if
it's not international waters, uh, countries and nations working together
(20:29):
with trade deals to use those waters, and it's just
there's so many there's so many things to think about
with it. A lot of you know what, now you
mentioned a mat A lot of lawyers are gonna make
a ton of cash off this too. So the thing
is that this could economically be very good for a
(20:50):
ton of nations and a ton of people throughout the world,
depending on how it's played out. However, without sounding two
skept cool of our ability to work together, we do
have to point out that one of the first possibilities
on the horizon, let's say all this ice melts, when
the first possibilities on the horizon is going to be war,
(21:14):
or at least the threat of war. Right, the posturing, well,
let's call it, yeah, posturing, rivalry, brinksmanship, whatever you wanna
call it. What you know what, why don't we call
it Russia and America to electric Arctic boogaloo? Okay, that's great.
Oh yeah, well, if you're listening, you're in the U.
N please feel free to use that just credit our show.
(21:35):
The disappearance of ice in the Arctic immediately changes the
status quo for Russia and the United States in the
following ways. In ways that are very very good for
the Federated States of Russia. Moscow suddenly gets access to
more than four thousand miles of Arctic coastline, and that
(21:56):
would fundamentally transform Russia from a continental to a mayor
of time power. Russia would have access to all weather
bases and immediately start constructing them. By the way, Yeah,
it would be a no brainer to do that. It
would be ridiculous not to do it. This also creates
security risk along Russia's northern border, Alaska and Russia being
(22:20):
very close together. Uh. And previously these concerns just didn't apply.
They were not applicable because of the area's harsh climate.
It's just too much of pain to do stuff there. So,
the prospect of the Arctic Ocean emerging as a new
theater of military rivalry or what did you call it,
(22:42):
met um naughty boats of naughty boat tag? There we go.
That's that's the way to explain board, kids, of naughty
boat tag. This prospect is being taken very very seriously,
(23:03):
not by just the US, but by NATO, by Moscow,
of course, and they're trying to figure out how they're
going to sort this out without entering into what's called
a hot war. Yeah, where stuff is actually fired, right, well,
so where stuff is actually fired from from from one
(23:27):
puppet master to the other puppet master. So like a
proxy war is occurring in Syria, that's where that's where
the hands go out and manipulate the other things, right,
they fire at each other, exactly, Proxy wars in Afghanistan,
proxy wars like in Southeast Asia. These things happen, but
(23:47):
this presents a situation where it could possibly be a
genuine military conflict the likes of which we haven't seen
since World War Two. And just if you want to
have an example of how important naval bases are to
the Russian Federation, Russian Federation of States, how to say
(24:08):
to Russia, Um, you just you can look to several
years ago in Ukraine and Crimea and the handling of
um some of the shipping and naval bases that were
so important in that region to the country, and the
actions that were taken to make sure those were secured.
Just if you if you want to take those as examples,
you can understand how important this stuff is, especially if
(24:32):
then you multiply it by the scale that it would
be in the Arctic. Absolutely, absolutely that's an excellent example
in Crimea itself has It was sad to see that
drop out of the news cycle because the story of
Crimea and self is fascinating, and it doesn't it doesn't start.
(24:55):
You know, just a few years ago when Russia invaded
excuse me, when, um, when patriots with Balaklava's right. Anyway,
there are people some of us listening are saying, all right, guys,
that's a little alarmist, going cold war on us. You're
going cold war, You're going hot war on us, You're
(25:15):
going World War three on us, because that's what you're
essentially implied. Right. The problem is that now we are
not talking about two nations fighting over a border, and
we have not been talking about that sort of thing
in in world politics and world militaries for decades. Everybody
(25:35):
is crewed up. Now, every country is in some sort
of gang to one degree or another. And a war
with European country who's a member of NATO means that
you're beefing with all of NATO. Yeah, and if you
are starting to fight with Russia, you're starting to fight
with all of Russia's buddies as well. And now that
(25:59):
this previous slee inaccessible part of the world maybe up
for grabs. Everybody wants a piece. We talked about the
Arctic Council. There's five d eight nations, so that's Canada,
the Kingdom of Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, the Russian Federation, Sweden,
and the US. But again, when we say everybody wants
(26:20):
a piece, we mean picture picture that Gary Oldman give
everyone or everything, right. China, Japan, and South Korea all
also want to be involved in Arctic affairs, and China
is the PRC People's Republic of China is the biggest
player in this game, or at least the most visible
(26:42):
about it. China recently declared itself to be a quote
near Arctic state, which is weird. Which is weird because
if you look at this scale of just you know,
I'll be I'll be a jerk about it. If you
look at the scale of the solar system, every state
is a nearctic state. Okay, It's like what what is
(27:04):
what is not a Neararctic state? Is um Uganda or
the Bahamas or those not near arctic states? Sure? Sure,
arguably right, but that's that's a very relative term, you
know what I mean? You could you could be you
could be like a little north or south of the
equator and then call yourself a near Antarctic state because
(27:28):
you're closer slightly to Antarctica. The I don't know. I
just I think it's I think it's slippery semantics. But
they say they're a new Arctic state, and in January
they unveiled their plans for a polar silk route, announcing
that the country of China is an important stakeholder in
Arctic affairs. I would agree with that because of just
(27:50):
the sheer volume of stuff shipping to end from that country. Yes,
and that's exactly what they're interested in. They want to
be able to ship everything through there and save that
or however much they would end up saving shipping things.
And since they've been they've had observer status in the
(28:10):
Arctic Council because they've kind of seen this on the horizon,
on the both climate horizon as well as the geopolitical horizon.
Uh So it's just something to keep your eye on
for sure, right, And they've been building influence in this
area for as you said, Matt, for for some time.
(28:33):
But the issue here goes into the question of how
closely trade and military action may or may not be related.
I mean when we talked about deals, like, it's not
just those countries with the Northeast and the Northwest passage,
it's people making deals with those countries and into this effect,
Beijing was talking specifically with Canada and Russia um to
(28:58):
work out some kind of free trade agreement with both
of these countries, with some of the Scandinavian nations that
are up there too, you know, for China essentially to
infuse money into some of the bigger projects that are
happening in those areas. Specifically, there's one called the Yamal
l n G project that which has to do with
natural gas and oil oil capturing UH through Russia. And
(29:23):
there are other projects in the US in Alaska they're doing,
you know, pretty much the same thing and UH and
and as well as Canada. And it's just it's China,
like you said, Ben, trying to have its seat at
the table, to get in on the ground floor with
these projects as investors, to then have a stake in
(29:43):
other parts of it. Right, right, if the if the
legal framework of geopolitics will work, then surely the financial
framework of who owes who money will will deliver right there.
And let's real quick on the timeline here. Hoarding to
NASA global climate models predict the Arctic will be ice
(30:04):
free during the summer months by the middle of this century,
so by and that's very much a ballpark that could
be that that could mean anywhere from to you know.
So it's so weird time scales because it feels so
long term and yet that is fully short term. Yes,
(30:27):
that is not long at all. Hey man, you'll probably
you'll probably be here. I don't know. Maybe you should
sketch go ahead and link book your tickets now cruise
you can take it on a Chinese icebreaker perhaps. Uh.
The snow Dragon two and the snow Dragon one have
(30:48):
already been created and there's an expedition scheduled for the
first half of This is also happening in This is
happening in a erose sum environment. To be absolutely clear,
what that means is that there there's a finite amount
of power, there's a finite amount of territory, and there's
(31:13):
a finite amount of resource to be extracted. So what
there are we'll get into right the annual the economy
of this region could exceed four hundred and fifty billion
dollars US. But we're bringing up just that point because
the government of China has been quick to capitalize on
(31:33):
what they see as um lack of expertise and interest
from the US, from Uncle Sam, from Washing d C.
And that's not related to and let's not related to
any particular administration. These are big boy rules. We're talking
about the way other countries look at each other. But
(31:54):
real politics tells us other countries only care about what's
happening domestically a different country if it will help their
bottom line or give them an opportunity to require more
power and influence on the global stage. Can I use
this right? Can use otherwise? Why why are you telling
(32:15):
me we have problems of our own? Says every country?
So resources, that's why. That's that's ultimately what it comes
down to. Almost every time on the show, Yeah, almost
every time, not every time, almost every time in history.
You know, it might be dressed up as values or
interest or national security, national security or someone's religion makes
(32:42):
you know, gets us in a stink or whatever, but really,
ultimately that's that's all window dressing. It's all it's all
a nice side to catch up to the the actual fries,
which are resources. So yes, they're tremendous shipping in military
force projection ADVAN just to controlling the Arctic. But why
(33:03):
are those important? Because it boils down to what can
you get from there and what can you move across there?
That's it resources. But why are they so important? Let's
get into that right after a quick word from our sponsor.
(33:24):
So here's the thing. You nailed it in one word,
that resources. Every every conflict is about resources, right, We've
we've said this before. We don't just mean it in
post World War two. We don't just mean it in
terms of like Russia grabbing crimea or something. We mean
(33:48):
throughout human history, throughout the span of our civilization, virtually
every large scale conflict has been about resources. Now it'll
be dressed up, you know, there will be some window dressing,
especially in democracies, right though. It will be like, oh,
it's our values, right, or it's what's another one, it's
um it it presents a national security risk here we go,
(34:12):
or you know, if you go a little further back,
these people's religion is bad to us. Yeah, that lumber
that's all over there, that has nothing to do with it.
That control of the bay has nothing to do with it.
The ability to send things down this river because you know,
don't worry about that. Uh. Catholicism bad and of course
(34:34):
religious and uh racial discrimination is a real thing. It's
also an avenue to justify taking stuff from people. It's
a lever you can pull. It's yeah, it's very much.
War is very much a stuff oriented thing. Are we
too cynical or is this? I mean this, this feels
(34:56):
so real to me, and I've seen it happen so
many times throughout history. I'm not I'm not being too
cynical in these thoughts, am I? Because I really do
feel like this is just the truth. I'm the worst
person to ask because I completely agree with you, Matt.
I mean, there are there Okay, So yes, it's true.
There are tremendous shipping and military force projection advantages to
(35:17):
having control over all or some of the Arctic, especially
those shipping routes. But why are they important? Why it's
not bragging rights. It ultimately boils down to resource extraction.
What can we get from there? What can we move
across there? In two thousand and eight, the U S
Geological Service estimated that the Arctic alone contains more than
(35:39):
one thousand, six hundred sixty nine trillion cubic feet of
natural gas reserves oh m G. So this amount is massive.
It's it's about thirty of all of the world's remaining
supply of natural gas that has not been in some
way found developed or begun to be extracted. This is
(36:04):
um That number is almost four times the entire United
States reserves that exists right now. And that this number
also does not include what are called methane hydrates on
the cbed, which can also be converted to a very
valuable resource. The addition of this stuff, if it ever
becomes cost effective to to extract it, which is a
(36:27):
big deal here, which is a huge deal, could boost
potential reserves exponentially. In addition, they're probably around forty four
billion barrels of natural gas liquids and nine billion barrels
of oil. That's about of the undeveloped oil reserves on
the planet. In one place, the Geological Service estimates the
(36:52):
pent of the Arctics hydrocarbons are offshore. Sixty of the
Arctic oil is in Russian territory tory, and not just
in the territory that the Russian government thinks belongs to it,
which is different, but in the territory that everybody sort
of agrees belongs to it. So according to their surveys,
(37:12):
the Russian surveys, more than of the hydrocarbon reserves are
located in the Arctic zone of the Siberian Continental Shelf,
And without going into the weeds too much, this is
a commercial powder keg. This could guarantee Russia's seat at
the table. One of the criticisms that you'll hear about
(37:36):
Russia pretty often is that Russia is pretending to be
a world power or a superpower. It's got a lot
of domestic problems. Again, you know, most other world leaders
care about that to the point that it might present
an opportunity for them, but otherwise it's like, not my job,
(37:57):
not my problem. And so the criticism that you will
hear about Russia is that they have two things that
give them a seat at the table, new and nuclear
arsenal and gas reserves hydrocarbon reserves. So if they were
able to exponentially increase the amount of stuff that they
(38:21):
control in the in the hydrocarbon economy, then they also
they also increase their prominence and importance and influence in
world affairs. You know, there were times a few years back,
not so long ago, in recent history, while we were alive,
when Russia could literally just turn off the gas supply
(38:43):
to a large swath of Europe just if they wanted to,
just you know, if like fun, like when do you
else are you doing on a Friday? His power, his power.
It's not clear, however, yet, whether these reserves are whether
it makes sense to get them right now. Yeah, well, yeah,
that's the whole thing. It's building the infrastructure and the
(39:06):
having the technology to be able to extract that stuff
from the depths where it exists in those cold temperatures
and all the all the other factors. Even if it
begins melting, it's still a tremendous It would be a
tremendous achievement to be able to get that, and it
would cost so much money, which is one of the
biggest problems here. There's this thing called the International Energy
(39:29):
Agency or the i e A. We love to to
read those, and they believe that in order to make
this economically feasible to do to extract this, you know,
the oil and natural gas here, the average price essentially
of oil would have to be around a hundred and
twenty dollars per barrel for the development for this to
(39:50):
even work to to make to have it make sense,
you can make money back, so you're not just throwing
money into the Arctic in order to make some back.
And for perspective, right now, as we're recording it, crude
oil probably averaged around sixty five bucks a barrel or
so in February of this year, so oil would almost
(40:12):
have to double. You gotta make some calls to the
big heads and talk to them. I think, yeah, they're
also cutting production right, and Russia is part of the conversation.
Oh man, different show. So there's also the cost of
creating all the infrastructure you need to get this stuff
(40:33):
out right. This is no longer Beverly Hillbilly's land. Kudos
to anyone I got that reference. They will have to
build around one trillion US dollars worth or sixty nine
trillion rubles worth of stuff two extracted oil to process
it to make it something that they can sell, and
(40:55):
they don't have this country. Russia does not have the
technology so far as we know, to exploit those deep
water deposits. Yet Additionally, a lot of the stuff they
do have to, you know, to extract energy from this
part of the world. Was not designed to cope with
this part of the world melting. Yeah, it's designed to
(41:16):
be in the frozen areas. You can see some that
thing that we mentioned a little earlier, the Yamal l
n G project, you can actually see images of what
uh some of the some of it looks like. And
it is just built on essentially ice. I mean, it's
just built on ice inside ice. And if that were
(41:36):
all to melt, it would it would quickly change how
that how that whole system functions, how that facility functions. Um,
it could create a large issue. Yeah, absolutely, because there's
gonna be a limital space. There's gonna be a transition period.
Earth does not work on light switches, you know what
(41:57):
I mean. What's gonna happen is that stuff will stuff
will begin to melt, and eventually, when it melts to
a to a high enough degree, there will be avenues
to access this hidden oil, these hidden hydroc carbons. But
before it reaches that point, it's it will just be
(42:18):
muddy and things will be not quite accessible. But all
this stuff we built before will not work. So there's
going to be this worse before it gets better scenario,
and that's when the that's when the series of battles
will start. These will be happening concurrently, the battles already
started in the courtroom. That's where a lot of international
(42:40):
battles start. Primary disagreements here, as you already point out, Matt,
concern what we think of as international waters and what
we think of as sovereign waters or territory controlled by
a single nation or and on calling and now eventually
a single corporation. So conflicting claims the Arctic date back
to least nine five, when Canada said that, all right,
(43:03):
we're gonna say our maritime border extends to cover everything
from sixty degrees west to one degrees west and then
northward all the way to the North Pole and the
North Pole remember this nine So the North Pole had
just been reached in nineteen o nine and Canada was like,
let's get on it. So they also claim these various
(43:27):
channels and straits that constitute what we call the Northwest
Passage are part of its internal waters, not international. You
want to travel on this road, you have to play
with us. The US and other countries have argued that
that this is complete malarchy. There's an international waterway. You
have to let us go free and unencumbered, which means
(43:49):
we can come and go as we please. The This
is one example. There are a ton of other examples.
Rushes and a lot of them because they control a
lot of the coastline. Now the battle has been moving
forward symbolically. In two thousand and five, the Russian Arctica Expedition,
which was the first manned descent to the sea floor
(44:09):
beneath the North Pole. And this is baller by the way,
they planted a Russian flag made of titanium on the
Arctic floor at the geographical poll. That's that's what's up.
I thought it was yeah, I thought it was a
power move. The US and Canada Denmark thought so too,
but they didn't think it was cool. And the Kremlins,
they said, what are you doing. You can't just say
(44:32):
this belongs to you, and and the Kremlin said it
was not asserting severenity. And this is where we found
this excellent caddy quote from Russian Foreign Minister Sergi Lavorov.
We're not throwing flags around. We just do what other
discoverers did. The purpose of the expedition is not to
(44:53):
skates whatever rights of Russia, but to prove that our
shelf extends to the north Pole. By the way, on
the Moon, it was the same, like remember when you
planted that area flag on the Moon. It's just because
we got here first. Come on, Like we sent a
(45:13):
submersible down and we put a giant, awesome titanium flag
down there. It's it's strange, But these symbols are important,
right are they are? And that's why in Antarctica you
can still get a passport stamp from Great Britain or
something or you or these countries will operate post offices.
So what happens when the weather warms, it brings hotter wars. Historically,
(45:36):
the Arctic Ocean has not been a significant military theater
for the US, which means it's not a place where
we put our weapons of destruction and our weapons of war.
At the height of the Cold War, US and Soviet
ballistic missile submarines hid below the polar ice caps. And
you know, played this game of cat and mouse, right,
(45:58):
you know, the it's the can at least harken back
to images of Hunter October right right, and could call
and both sides did have early warning networks, and they
had armies defending them. But these early warning networks had
while they had anti submarine equipment and armament, the main
(46:20):
thing they we're looking out for was a way too,
no as soon as possible if a missile had been launched,
because the biggest significance of the Arctic for both sides
of the Cold War was this. It is it was
the shortest shipping route for boats, right if you could
get rid of the ice. But it's the shortest flight
(46:42):
path for an ICBM or intercontinental ballistic missile and other
nuclear missiles. So if if a missile is fired from
Russia to the US, that's how it's going to get
that's the shortest way for it to get there, or
from Alaska or the Russian Federation, or from a Alaska
to the Russians, yeah, or from any submarine that's hanging
(47:04):
out in the Arctic Ocean. Right. So in recent years
the increase uh in temperature across the Arctic has diminished
that polar ice cap. As you said, Bet, the northeast
passage right now in Russia's Arctic seas can can be
used for two or three months of the year and
(47:24):
even longer if you have an icebreaker like China does,
like Russia does. Canada's Northwest passage is not near as
posh shallow, it's prone to getting clogged by ice, but
it too has seen some more commercial traffic because there's
less and less ice around. And now the Arctic Ocean,
because of this warming, is emerging as the next place
(47:49):
where people were, well, I say people where the Russian
government and the US government are going to butt heads.
It is preposterous that this is not a bigger deal
right now. Because Russia controls the board. That's what makes
it different. Russia is way more qualified and way more
(48:10):
competent for any kind of when in regards to any
kind of conflict here in this area of the world. Well, yeah,
if you look at the you just think about the
naval fleets of the US, and then you think about
the the land area of Alaska, which is the only
US controlled territory up there. If you just look at
(48:30):
a picture of the Arctic Circle and think about that alone,
then think about just the history of of operating up there,
and then all of the naval you know, a lot
of the Pacific fleets, the you know, the different fleets
of the US has it's just a whole different game,
and Russia has been doing it for a while. Yes, yeah,
that's a good way to put it. According to Andrew Holland,
(48:51):
who is CEO of the American Security Project, the Arctic
is the only theater of operations where the U. S.
Navy is out house by a pure competitor. Russian surface
warships have demonstrated the ability to carry out complex combined
operations in the high North, while the American Navy maintains
a policy that only submarines operate above the bearing straight.
(49:14):
There you go, complex combined operations. Oh hollydood, you're listening,
No offense, I just like that voice. So yeah. Since
two thousand and eight, Russia's Arctic development has been at
least according to the Pentagon assertive force posture, with constant
military drilling and quote provocative air maneuvering. So Russia has
(49:39):
four different fleets Baltic, Pacific, Black Sea, and Arctic. The
Arctic Fleet or Northern Fleet, has eighty ships. Thirty five
of those are submarines and others are surface ships led
by a battle cruiser. But over the last decade it's
been increasingly expanded. It's been improved star in two thousand twelve.
(50:01):
It's regularly patrolled a two thousand mile stretch of the
Northern Sea. And more importantly, Russia operates a fleet of
forty icebreakers. At forty more icebreakers than the rest of
the world icebreaker fleet combined. Sounds familiar to the US
when you just think about defense spending and that kind
(50:23):
of thing, and yeah, exactly, but then well, we do
have icebreakers. We have three. Uncle Sam has three icebreakers, uh,
and they need a lot of help in turn, like
the icebreakers themselves. So if a war breaks out, if
a physical or hot boar does break out over disputes
(50:44):
in the Arctic, it will almost certainly become a global conflict.
NATO will be involved, The dominoes will start to fall,
as the US alone would be out classed, right, and
then we would see other countries who are aware of this,
hungry for the opportunity, would also insert themselves in some way,
(51:04):
because chaos is a chaos is fertile soil for opportunity,
you know what I mean. Military planners envision rivalry and
perhaps conflict between NATO powers, the US and Russia, But
eventually they say China will get in the game because
(51:24):
that country is very, very sensitive to resource acquisition and
can detect minerals from miles and decades away. Yeah, they
know where it is, they know it exists, and they're
gonna find a way to be a part of it. Right,
that's the idea, right, And the same sort of stuff
is happening in Antarctica. If current economic projections hold true,
(51:49):
there are going to be some very dangerous times ahead,
especially for the average person. Right, They're going to be
global bus of a of these bubbles will pop and
if that happens, that's going to make different different countries
increasingly desperate to obtain control and serenity over these things.
(52:11):
And that means that economic disaster could accelerate this timeline.
Climate change is already accelerating, sure, changing temperatures whatever you
want to call them, are already accelerating it. But the
economic stuff could be even more powerful on this timeline
because what was that number, A dred and twenty dollars barrel?
(52:32):
Is that when it becomes something like that, Okay, so
what if it just spikes and one day, one day
it's uh barrel, then everybody's gonna be trying to get
it and the drilling starts tomorrow. Yeah, that's what happens,
you know. Wow. Okay, so that's where we are right
now with this. Um. You know, one thing I was
(52:53):
wondering about as we were researching this was Denmark and
Greenland because if you look at a map, you see
how large Greenland is and how much ice covers that
that uh piece of land, and there are resources there,
a lot of resources. If that also melts, it makes
me wonder if someone eventually one of these superpowers eventually
(53:14):
invades Denmark's control at least over Greenland. UM, something like that,
because you know, and we've we only barely touched Antarctica
in this episode because we've talked about it so many
times before. But as Ben said right at the end, there,
it's it's the same thing. That's a huge continent, and
if some of that ice is melting, no matter how
(53:35):
high the water is rising, Um, we're gonna be trying
to get over there and discover things and find more
resources because they're there. We be not just Uncle Sam
or not just as humans. Yeah, we also beating you,
you and me. Oh yeah, we're gonna be down there
trying to get as much titanium to make more flags
as we possibly can. Whether you are a president, a peasant,
(54:00):
a prime minister, or a pioneer, one thing is for sure.
Everyone is waiting for the day that the ice smelts
and doesn't come back in winter, which is which is
a scary thing. The the they and the stuff they
don't want you to know for today's episode is multidimensional.
I mean, there there were companies that don't want you
(54:23):
to know the ongoing negotiations they're having with their own governments.
There are military contractors who don't want you to know
the kind of stuff they're building. Uh, And there are
of course governments who don't want you to know what
they're planning, especially if you work for another government. It
always reminds me of that story or that that old proverb.
(54:45):
You know, when elephants make war, only the grass suffers.
The majority of humanity. Is the grass here just getting trampled,
just getting trampled? Quite possibly, or who knows, maybe maybe
our species will say what's the best way to um
what what's the best way to normalize this and create
a situation where there's not a global catastrophe, And that's
(55:08):
that's quite possible. I mean, no one really wants a
third World war. You want to manage conflicts and ways
to assertively negotiate their their way to the biggest slice
of the pie, whatever the pies ingredients are, and sometimes
you fight, you see what happens, and increasingly hydrocarbons in
(55:30):
that pie are not as lucrative or interesting. Yeah, at present,
you know in the moment, in the moment, and that
goes into whether or not technology is being suppressed, and
that goes into um whether or not we're getting real
numbers about the petrol industry in general. But those are
stories for another day. If we wanted to end on
(55:53):
a less dystopian scary note, we can tell you that
you can travel as a private citizen to Antarctica. From
an environmental perspective, it's a fascinating place to visit, or
so we hear. You do get price breaks if you
travel in the group. Would highly recommend that because it's
quite expensive and it's something you would have to save
(56:15):
up for, but hey, it's a that's a cool goal
if you can achieve it once in a lifetime experience. Yeah,
if you don't feel like saving up the money, but
you feel like spending a lot of time there. It
is remarkably I don't want to say it's too easy,
but it's remarkably less difficult than I thought. To get
(56:36):
hired as a you know, like a cook or support
staff in a research station. Do it and then write
to us like every day, make a make a diary,
tell us who you think the hidden alien is? Or
do you want to start a podcast to go on
that journey? And then we'll just well start a new
podcast with speaking people going on that journey. One last
(56:56):
thing for you close today's episode. Uh, flat earthers are
launching your trip to and alretic a matte. Did you
see that? Yes, they are going to figure out once
and for all whether or not this Earth is flat
and whether or not you can reach the end of
the Earth. And they're gonna go down there to find
(57:16):
essentially the Game of Thrones wall basically, but if on
the other side of the wall there was nothing just
space essentially, right, it's the ice wall. It's supposed to
uh supposed to be several thousand feet thick, and it
goes a hundred and sixty four ft high perhaps, and
it's this thing that rings the entire planet. And there's
(57:36):
a group of people who are going to be there soon.
They're they're taking off soon allegedly right. The suppoosed ice
Wall is a couple of thousand feet thick und sixty
four ft high and surrounds the planet. This is planned
for next year for it's organized by the Flat Earth
International Conference or f e i C. And just so
(57:59):
you know, core into this article from the Sun, which
is uh oh excuse me, Yes, he's an original article
posted by the Sun that was in the New York Post. Uh.
YouTube star logan Paul, the guy that everybody just loves.
He says he wants to find the facts and also
join them, so yeehaw eh. And maybe maybe our boy
(58:22):
is gonna be there. Who's our boy, uh rapper that
we talked about. What's his name? Bob? Oh? Yeah, yeah,
maybe he'll be there as well, yes, uh And maybe
you will be there if you're listening. If so, we'd
love to hear about your adventures. We hope that you
enjoyed this episode, and if you live in the northern climes,
we'd love to hear more about your experiences. Do you
(58:46):
feel like this is alarmist? Do how how quick do
you feel the ice is or is not melting, and
how do you see things changing in a world without
northern ice? Let us know. You can find us on Instagram, Facebook,
and Twitter. You can talk to our favorite part of
the show, your fellow listeners on our Facebook page. Here's
where it gets crazy where conspiracy stuff show at Instagram
(59:08):
and you can find me at ben bullon on Instagram.
If you don't want to do that stuff, you can
leave us a voicemail call one eight three three s
T d W y t K. There's a three minute
cap there for per message, so you may have to
leave numerous ones, or you don't make it brief. Do
whatever you want to do. It might be used on
the show. Tell us explicitly if you don't want it
(59:30):
on the air, yes, and also be specific about your
name if you don't want certain parts of your name
used or anything like that. You and also fair warning
you might get a call from me uh to ask
you if we can use a certain part or just
to get some clarificational what we can or cannot use.
So apologies in advance. All right, If you don't want
to do any of that stuff, just send us a
(59:51):
good old fashioned email. We are conspiracy at how stuff
works dot com, m
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Noel Brown
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United States of Kennedy is a podcast about our cultural fascination with the Kennedy dynasty. Every week, hosts Lyra Smith and George Civeris go into one aspect of the Kennedy story.
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