October 6, 2022 • 27 mins
Brian Noe chats with the sharpest minds in the business to get you ready for another loaded football weekend! Brian previews 3 of the biggest matchups in college football with Pickswise Lead Betting Analyst Jared Smith. Brian talks some of the best bets of NFL Week 5 with Sports Handicapper from KrackWins.com Bill Krackomberger. Plus, the guys have picks for Thursday night's NFL action!
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
Are you going to witness? College fans? Welcome to the
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(00:21):
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We're live from your tail game. Here's Brian no Alright
is Countdown to Kickoff presented by Bett MGM. New users
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download the bet MGM app to day and use code
countdown for a special offer. That's code Countdown and the
bet MGM app. Today we'll have Bill Krackenburger, crack sports
handicapper from crack Winds dot com, doing all the NFL.
But right now, let's get it kicked off with Jared
Smith Jared Smith talking to some college football lead betting
(01:06):
analysts from picks wise dot com. Jared, did you notice
I didn't screw up one word except for your name?
How do you feel about that? Well? And it was
also like the easiest last name in like the history
of last names, Like I can't think of an easier one.
So I know it's that crack and burger. It's smith
Hoo from now on, how about that? Yeah, so let's
(01:28):
start it off, man. I'm looking at a couple of
the games you've got your eye on SEC Action Tennessee
against l s U. L s U is a three
point underdog home dog in this one, by the way,
just on a personal note, I I wrote the wave
of L s U last week against Auburn, and it
(01:50):
probably took a good five years off my legs. They
got it done. They got there, but it was not
the scenic route. It was the route from hell, but
they got it done. What do you see in this
one against Tennessee? Yeah, well you you you hit up
our group chat about midway through that game and you
said that L s U was a good bet live
since Auburn, UM, you know, hasn't really shown themselves very
(02:14):
well this year. That's certainly what I've seen, UM, and
it was a great call by you. But the Valls
are off the buy here and they haven't won in
Baton Rouge and basically two decades since two thousand and five.
The interesting spot for them look ahead next week to
Obama will see what that means. We'll see how focused
they are. L s U. Even though they came back
(02:34):
and won that game against Auburn, a lot of the
professional handicappers that I speak to still downgraded them, because,
let's be honest, that was a very fortunate comeback victory
against a very, very poor Auburn team. Now, the one
reason you would like L s U in this spot.
They're at home, they're catching points. But the local start
time here eleven am. It's new and eastern eleven am central,
(02:56):
so I think that negates the Death Valley factor a
little bit. The fact that it's literally still breakfast time
when these teams are starting to play. I think a
night game would have better suited L s U s underdog,
you know, upset chances here. And the question for me
is on defense. For L s U is all about
their secondary. I mean, Auburn quarterback Robbie Ashford had three
(03:17):
and seventy two passing yards through four games, and he
threw for three thirty seven against L s U last week.
That's just something's wrong there with the L s U secondary. Now,
Henn and Hooker has been fantastic. The one knock I
will make on his game. For a mobile quarterback, his
sack ratio is pretty high. And we look at this
metric called pressure to sack rate, which is almost thirty
(03:39):
percent for him this year, meaning three out of every time,
three out of ten times that hooker is pressured, he
gets sacked. And for a mobile quarterback, that's a very
high rate. So I'm curious if the L. S U
frontline can you know, take that pressure and and and
make it negative plays. Uh, Cedric Tillman, it looks like
isn't gonna play this week. That's the star Tennessee wide receiver.
(03:59):
That's eight news for L. S U. Secondary. On the
other side, with Jaden Daniels, you already saw it in
that game against Auburn, just the physicality of the SEC,
I think starting to take its toll. He's He's not
a very thick individual, little thin, wiry um and I'm
curious if he can handle now another week in the
SEC against the You know, maybe Tennessee's defense is in
all world, but these are still SEC athletes. The one
(04:22):
thing I will say positive for Daniels this year hasn't
thrown an interception yet this season. We'll see if that continues. Um,
but he's been inefficient on deep balls, and I think
that's something that you'd like to see change, especially against
the ball secondary. Uh that's n in e p A
against the past. So you would think there's gonna be
opportunities for this L s U offense with a very
talented group of skill position players to be able to
(04:44):
stretch the field. I kind of like the over vibe
in this game. It's in the mid to low sixties.
I think Tennessee is gonna move the ball effectively. They
play at a lightning quick pace and all the things
I'm hearing from L s U. They had a player's
only meeting this week with the skill position guy is
trying to figure out why this passing game has been inefficient,
and I think Tennessee's defense really hasn't been tested. Akron
(05:06):
ball State pit with a backup quarterback. Florida with an
inaccurate quarterback and no talent at wide receiver. Brian Kelly
at some point will get this offense humming. That's what
he does, and I think over sixty four is probably
the best look I have for this game. The over vibes,
I like how you say that you know I'm feeling
Tennessee in the first half more than anything in this game.
(05:28):
Maybe it gets a little bit crazy in the second
half that valley comes alive. I like what you're thinking
with the eleven am local start time, and l s
U has been freaking brutal in the first half, so
I like Tennessee. It's only a point and a half
that Tennessee is favored by in the first half. You
could go money line. I got it at minus one thirty.
(05:49):
I'll spend the extra cash, but I like Tennessee to
at least have a lead at halftime because L s
U they have been such slow starters in these last
couple of games. I think Tennessee takes advantage of that.
I don't mind it at all. I mean, if you
were gonna ask me preseason this line's less than three,
I would be a little bit concerned because you're thinking
(06:10):
to yourself, well, Tennessee at l s you, they're gonna
be a road favorite. But l SU continues to get downgraded.
You know, every week. It seems like they've shot themselves
in the foot in different ways. And and even though
they won last week, not an impressive victory at all. Okay,
let's move it to uh the pack twelve. You tak
(06:30):
against you ce l A, You tak rough and tumble right,
you see l A. You know what, I don't know
how you feel about this. I don't want to go
off on a tangent, Jared, but I think there are
certain teams that get a a reputation, say Oregon, Oh,
just a bunch of bubble screens and just kind of
like tricking you. You. Ce l A seems to have
(06:51):
that type of of reputation. A lot of it isn't true. Granted,
you might not be as physical as Utah, but you
can't run the ball effectively without some physicality. So you
tell me what you think in this Utah U c
l A game. U c l A a three and
a half point home dog here. Yeah, And this line
(07:13):
opened three and it immediately jumped to four. I even
saw four and a half pop up at some point.
And then you started to see the other side. You know,
you saw some u c l A money come into
the market about midweek, and now we're sitting at that
three and a half number. I would say that's probably
where it closes. But let's just do line comparison for
(07:33):
a minute. So last week, Washington was minus three at
u c l A. Utah this week, let's just call
it three and a half. What you're telling me is
that Utah and Washington would be basically a pick them
on a neutral. And I don't buy that for a second.
I mean, Utah is better than Washington. So I think
the early line value just based off of comparing what
(07:56):
we saw with Washington last week to now Utah this week.
Unless you're willing to say Utah and Washington are evenly
matched teams, which I'm not willing to go there. I
think Utah is at least a field goal ahead of
Washington on a neutral, then you're getting early value. I
think here on the youths now Kyle Whittingham, I mean, goodness, gracious.
I went back and looked at these matchups nine and
three against the spread in twelve games against u c
(08:20):
l A five straight, not only straight up, but against
the number, and those five games have been incredibly one sided.
The youths are outscoring the Bruins two thirty four to
ninety nine in those five games. They're covering by an
average of eighteen and a half points. Physicality has been
a problem in this matchup. We haven't seen the Bruins
(08:42):
really get punched yet. Their schedule has been soft. Washington's
defense especially was soft last week. Prior to that, they
haven't really been tested. Alabama State Bowling, Green South Alabama.
Utah will present a physical challenge for this U c L.
A team that I don't know if they're willing to handle. Now.
(09:03):
The Utah offense has been playing slightly below expectation. Brand Keithy,
the tight end all World, probably first or second round
pick out for the year, Tavan Thomas. They're running back
average four and a half yards per carry, solid, but
nothing to write home about. I do think this Utah
offense is relying a lot on Cameron Rising. Now he's
(09:24):
making all the plays, but he's still searching for that
wide receiver to emerge. You could also say the ut
have been a little unlucky. They are a top fifteen
team efficiency on standard downs, but when you talk about
points per opportunity, outside the top eighty. So they're moving
the ball effectively, but they're not finishing those drives with
points on the offensive end. Now you have those two
outliers against Florida where they were inside the five. Neither
(09:47):
of them got points. That exkews the numbers a little bit.
But I think it's fair to say that this Utah
offense has performed a little bit below expectation. Now they're
facing a u c l A defense that's been okay.
They struggle on eight downs success right on third and
fourth downs. To me, that's where Utah really has the
edge in this game, Brian, because I just told you,
Utah is a top fifteen team. On standard downs, which
(10:09):
means first down, second down, they get positive yardage. That
means third and short, and that's bad news for u
c l as defense that really struggles to get off
the field. We talked about u c l A's offense,
they haven't faced the defense that's really pushed them yet.
They will this week. Utah's front seven maybe slightly below expectation,
but their secondaries elite. Clark Phillips might be the best
(10:31):
corner in the in the country. He's the reigning National
Player of the Week three picks against Oregon State. He's
the highest recruited player Utah has ever had in the secondary.
He is a guy that probably is going to be
one of the first corners taken off the board in
this draft. So while Utah's front seven, maybe with the
front line especially giving up some more yards per rush
that you would like. The secondaries elite, and I don't
(10:52):
think you cel A seen a defense quite like this
this year, So I like the utes in this matchup.
I'm curious about Dorrian Thompson Robinson where he's twenty two
years old. I swear he's been u c l a
starting quarterback for twenty of those twenty two years. You
know he's been there forever. But you mentioned you Utah's
defense and seeing a dual threat QB who can scramble
(11:13):
around make some things happen. I want to see how
big of a factor d trs legs are in this one,
because it might not be enough for U c l
A to get the win as a home dog, but
he could scramble around for a decent amount of yardage
and keep it interesting in the fourth quarter. I agree.
So there's a couple of things about Utah's defense that
(11:33):
have kind of led me to believe they're struggling a
little more than maybe some of the numbers indicate. First
of all, sometimes the coaches will tip their hand based
off of scheme. Utah's defensive coordinator Morgan scally has done
that over the last two games. I've noticed other people
that cover this industry have noticed he's putting five defensive
(11:54):
lineman down in the box on standard downs, which is
not some thing you've seen often from Utah and years past,
because they've been so good with getting pressure and stopping
the run with their front four base. But you're starting
to see minor adjustments more five down lineman for Utah
on standard downs with the goal of stopping the run.
(12:15):
The one positive thing I will say Utah has faced
two mobile quarterbacks already this year, Anthony Richardson and Emery Jones.
Now you could say one much more efficient than the other,
but neither really I think, are at the level of DTR.
I think Dorian Thompson Robinson will be the best quarterback
top to bottom NOS two toes that the Utes have
(12:35):
faced this season. And he's got a chip on his shoulder.
He came out after the win and said, we're the
worst four NO team in the country. I don't know
if that's a positive or a negative. I think he's
looking at it from a perspective of trying to pump
up his troops. But maybe he's in the process showing
us that yeah, maybe U c l A is not
as good as some of these other teams that are undefeated.
(12:55):
So I I don't know. I I think I like
the the the chip on his shoulder, but I would
be worried if the t R gets into some trouble
and tries to scramble too much and and doesn't really
stick to the game plan in this one. I like
that nose two toes and I also liked d t R.
He was talking smack against Washington last week, kind of like,
(13:15):
get off my field. You need some of that swag
if you're gonna pull off another upset at home against Utah.
We'll see how that unfolds. One more to look at
TCU at Kansas. The Jayhawks six and a half point
home dogs in this one. You got college game day
out there, a bunch of hoop. Yeah. Jalen Daniels, who
(13:37):
has been really good this year, struggle last week against
Iowa State. It was a grinder, four teen to eleven.
What in the world in the Big twelve is going
on over your fourteen to eleven? But they got it done.
Jayhawks are undefeated. My spiky sense is telling me you
are just waiting Jared Smith to pounce on the opposite
(13:58):
team facing the a Hawks. Am I right in this spot.
I was so gutted by how the end of that
Iowa State Kansas game transpired last week. I don't know
what Matt Campbell's smoking, but I seriously questioned, um, maybe
it's something in the water there in Aimes. You just
(14:19):
had a kicker miss twice from inside of forty. One
of them hit the upright, I think the other one
was just a flat out shank, and it's like fourth
and inches or fourth and one from inside the thirty
yard line, and you run them out there again to
to miss the last field goal of the game, which
was just an absolute miss, stone cold off the leg,
(14:41):
not even close. I just and again, this isn't a
you know, an Iowa State handicap. But my point is
Kansas was incredibly fortunate to win that game. Kansas had
negative yardage on their final four drives of the game.
I think it was like a minus twenty three. They
were outgained by a hundred ards in the game. They
they made an entire college football game where they gained
(15:03):
two d yards and they won. I mean it, it
was It was one of those games where you're on
the wrong side because the loss is in your ledger.
But when you look at the box score and you
really look at what Kansas did, you find it hard
to see positives. Now that being said, Bill Parcels, you
are what your record says. You are there five and oh.
(15:23):
So that's great. They've got game they come into town.
That's also great, they're trying to be six and oh.
For the first time since two thousand and seven, we've
seen massive upgrades in both of these teams power ratings.
TCU has been fantastic to also undefeated their offenses. First
in ep A per rush, six in e p A
per play. They are gaining nine yards per play on
first dounds Max Dugan eight five completion percentage on first dound.
(15:49):
And again, when we talk about overall efficiency on offense,
the early down numbers are much more predictive because that's
when the defense is kind of in betwixt and in between.
They don't know you're gonna run or you're gonna pass.
The third and fourth down numbers tend to be a
little more volatible. So the fact that TCU is doing
incredible things on first down leads me to believe that
(16:09):
their offense with Sunny Dike's is it's got staying power.
Now you could argue this is a letdown spot for
both teams. Kansas, we talked about that ugly win as
a home dog, but it was still a home dog
win over a team that's perennially been pretty solid in
the Big twelve. TCUs off of that ridiculous blow out
over Oklahoma, both teams you would say could be in
(16:29):
potential letdown spots now. I think when you look at
just a straight up metrics the horn Frogs there bfs bigger, faster,
stronger in in every category. They've got better players. They're
highly recruited players. They're guys that have been studs in
their respective high schools, where Kansas you know, doesn't really
get those guys to come play football and basketball they
do and football, they don't get those guys to come
(16:49):
to Lawrence UM. But I've been impressed with the way
this scrappy Jayhawks bunches looked in the non skill position areas,
their offensive lines grading out well twenty three and opportunity
rate and opera tunity rate is when your offensive line
provides at least four yards of space and the running
backs get at least four yards of of you know,
positive yardage. So this is an offensive line that doesn't
have a lot of beef or a lot of five
(17:10):
star talent, but they're they're they're moving some people around,
and the weakness for TCU is stopping the run outside
the top seventy five and defensive line yards a hundred
and sixteen in stuff. Right, that tells me the Jayhawks
won't be behind the chains much. Now. To me, Kansas
a little thinnit running back. They lost Daniel hill Shaw Jr.
In that game against Iowa State. He's the third leading
rusher behind Dave, Devin Neil and the quarterback Daniels. But
(17:33):
to me, TCU can negate all of this run game,
slow the clock down, try to keep it out of
tc us offensive hands if they could just get off
to a fast start and force Kansas to play from
behind the scoreboard. So this is a really tough game
to handicap because again and both teams are kind of
due for the letdown. But if you were going to
ask me which team has the talent to just run
away and hide and make this a three or four
(17:54):
score game, I absolutely would take TCU and I think
I'll get to the window on the horn Frogs Kid
good stuff. Jared Smith. I'm gonna enunciate every time I
go with Smith, you know, so I don't screw it
up like the beginning of this podcast. But we'll have
more with Jared from picks wise dot com on our
Saturday kickoff show. It is Fox Sports Radios Countdown to
(18:17):
Kickoff presented by bet MGM. Three hours leading up to
kickoff in that noon Eastern time time slot, so nine
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three hours leading up to kickoff. We'll have Rich Ornberger
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(18:37):
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the King of sports books, all right, want to welcome
in Bill kracken Burger, sports handicapper from crack wins dot
(19:00):
com joining us here on countdown to kick off. Crack,
let's get right in, baby, I'm looking at it. You've
got the Ravens and Bengals circled right here heading into
this weekend. So we'll go straight to Sunday Night football
in Baltimore right now, Baltimore in a three and a
half point home favorite. What are you seeing in this one? So? Hi,
(19:24):
Hi guys, um. You know I try to put you
guys on on our group of text. I try to
give you everything before I bet it, because things move,
you know. I'm betting in a lot of places that
things will move. The lines will move. I noticed today though,
may because a little bit closer to game time, even
though it's only Wednesday, uh, Wednesday, Thursday. As as the
week goes on, lines get tighter. Their respect is not there.
(19:47):
If I bet something on Monday morning at seven am,
you can guarantee it's moving a full point. I'm literally
controlling the NFL totals market on something. But yet now
betting middle of the week, I was like, told you
guys that kind of leaned towards the under there Cincinnati Baltimore.
I still see one, two, three and a half forty
eight across the board. Um, kind of see a lower
(20:10):
I thought there's a lot of points for these two teams. Uh,
kind of like the under here. I expect this more
towards game time to close a lower number. So looking
at the under there in that game, prime time game,
a lot of eyes will be on since um, you
know people just and to be a real blunt, a
lot of eyes will be on Baltimore too. This is
actually a good game. It's a tight game of the
(20:32):
line is free. Speaking of tight games, I know some
of the sharpest syndicate guys in the world, the sports
betting syndicates. They are all complaining and not complaining about
they're just it's really a prop to the bookmaker saying, hey,
you guys are getting the lines right. These sides are
very tight this season. Yeah, I think you'd have to
say crag. The Bengals offense been one of the more
(20:52):
disappointing units in the league so far. We just saw
them high flying their way to the Super Bowl and
it's been tough sledding so far, a lot of sacks
being given up. So yeah, the under might be the
right play. Let's go to another game here, You've got
silly at Arizona on your radar and you're looking at
the first half line. What are you thinking here with
(21:14):
the Eagles. You know, I've been tough on I've been
very tough on Philly. Uh you know, it's it's just
they seem to always break my heart when it seems
like at the end when it comes time the nitty
greeny when it counts, they just don't have I don't
see they have seen them that they have the heart
to close there. So I've been tough on Philly over
the years. Listen, they're people think that the best team
(21:37):
in football right now. I've heard that. Um, it's that's
not what I think. I but I think they are
probably even better than I thought. I thought. Teams made
them look good this year. Listen, they got Jacksonville, they
got a Minnesota Cousins thrown free interception zone in the
red zone. Made them look a little bit better. This
week might be a good spot here for Philadelphia. First half,
(21:58):
this line opened up a sick. It went down to five.
The residences I'm talking about the regular full game line
opened up six, went down to five everywhere. That's when
the first half ticked down from three and a half
down to three it's minus three, minus fifteen, minus three
minus twenty everywhere, including MGM and UH. I just think
(22:18):
the first half Philadelphia comes out a little powerful here.
Like I like the three. I like laying the three
instead of the three and a half. Of course, I'm
just kind of disappointed. Not that I am. I actually
liked the Arizona underseason wins before the US years started.
They're coaching and stuff. I'm just kind of down on them.
So even though their home primetime game probably a probably
(22:39):
a good spot for them, the line didn't move in
their favor. But that's why I'll go with the first
half here and later three points with Philly. Yeah, I
don't hate that at all. And how about this, it
might make you feel even better, crack. Arizona has not
scored a point in the first quarter. In four games,
they have yet to score a point, So if you're
(23:00):
thinking Philly in the first half, it makes a lot
of sense to me. You've got another game circled here, Dallas.
So if you look at the Cowboys, who have done
very well with Cooper Rush, they're on the road against
the defending champion Rams. And the Rams did not look
great on Monday night against San Francisco Rams are back
(23:20):
at home facing Dallas. What do you see in this one? Yeah,
the Rams, and both the Rams and Cincinnati are proving
that last year's Super Bowl may have even been a
flute between those two teams. Uh. This year they're both
not looking uh anything big and spectacular considering they were
in the Big Game last year. Dallas, like I said
on our Sunday Show, Week two, ten point move compared
(23:44):
to the preseason with the pre look one, I look ahead.
Like again, I looked this morning. I didn't even know
this Dallas three and one. The thing I didn't know
is they're not as bad off as people fought. I
went and looked at their season wins. It's back to
ten half. So this this team is looking back at
their pre preseason look ahead in regular season win line,
(24:08):
not as bad as people thought. Here Cooper RuSHA is
proving that he could play in the NFL. And you
know this big controversy with you know, Jerry Jones sticking
his sticking his uh, I don't know what out here
on the line, trying to get some look, always looking
to give me some controversy and some drama, saying oh well,
if that comes back. I hope they're battling for trust me,
they're paying back on what you know, a hundred and
(24:30):
fifty million. Remember they game, he's going to be the
starting quarterbacks who comes back. I mean maybe something will
happen later in the season, but or maybe he'll see
and maybe get some rust off him. But he'll be
the start in the quarterback anyway, in this game. I
bet a lot of my games when I bet, when
I bet game over, I like bet in first half overs.
That's what I like betting. I'm not real big on
(24:50):
unders first half, however, I kind of like I lean
to the under here in the first half rather than
go on the full game forty three, kind of lean under.
This is like again, this is an obtainable line of
twenty one. A matter of fact, bet MGM has twenty
one over fifteen, which means you lay one five on
the under. Kind of lean to the under there um
(25:11):
on the first half. I think they'll come out a
little bit slow. Rams have come out slower out like
every game, so I think we'll we'll look. This is
a big spot for the Rams though, by the way,
they really have to come out here and prove that
they are going to be a playoff team again this
year and last year wasn't that sloop? Early money has
came up coming on Dallas line opened up six, down
(25:31):
to five. I'm gonna stay away from the sides like
I mostly always do. I'm gonna gonna rather go here
with the total first half total, lean to the under
first half, by the way, real fast crack just a
minute here. But I'm in Denver. I'm here for the
Thursday night game. I just don't see how the Colts
are gonna score. I got the under Colts team total
(25:52):
at nineteen and a half. Will I'd be a rich
man at the end of the night. I don't dislike that.
I think we're looking at a low, slower scoring game tonight.
You know, would open up forty three and a half
down to forty two. I could see that easily. Listen,
the Colts are there. Just there's one of the teams
that I just can't figure out every week from weekend
(26:12):
week out. The first week, they had that nice little
comeback for the the overtime I think it was Houston UM,
and then they got the tie. It was a tie game.
I just and then they come out and somehow you
know every week. Like like I always say, any given someday,
anything can and will happen. So anything happened tonight, and
of course in this game too, I would lean towards
(26:33):
the under there like you said. I would actually, I
actually would like your probably your team total under um
more than even the game under. Uh. These kind of
games sometimes last minute and get a last minute cover
with the over with a couple of fluke things in
the fourth quarter if it's a tight game or something,
or even a backdoor cover. So um, I would kind
(26:55):
of lean towards your under their team total. That's a
that's a that's a good best there, right. I like
that very nice. Hey, be sure to check out the
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(27:39):
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bet MGM app. Today we'll have Bill Krackenburger, crack sports
handicapper from crack Winds dot com, doing all the NFL.
But right now, let's get it kicked off with Jared
Smith Jared Smith talking to some college football lead betting
(01:06):
analysts from picks wise dot com. Jared, did you notice
I didn't screw up one word except for your name?
How do you feel about that? Well? And it was
also like the easiest last name in like the history
of last names, Like I can't think of an easier one.
So I know it's that crack and burger. It's smith
Hoo from now on, how about that? Yeah, so let's
(01:28):
start it off, man. I'm looking at a couple of
the games you've got your eye on SEC Action Tennessee
against l s U. L s U is a three
point underdog home dog in this one, by the way,
just on a personal note, I I wrote the wave
of L s U last week against Auburn, and it
(01:50):
probably took a good five years off my legs. They
got it done. They got there, but it was not
the scenic route. It was the route from hell, but
they got it done. What do you see in this
one against Tennessee? Yeah, well you you you hit up
our group chat about midway through that game and you
said that L s U was a good bet live
since Auburn, UM, you know, hasn't really shown themselves very
(02:14):
well this year. That's certainly what I've seen, UM, and
it was a great call by you. But the Valls
are off the buy here and they haven't won in
Baton Rouge and basically two decades since two thousand and five.
The interesting spot for them look ahead next week to
Obama will see what that means. We'll see how focused
they are. L s U. Even though they came back
(02:34):
and won that game against Auburn, a lot of the
professional handicappers that I speak to still downgraded them, because,
let's be honest, that was a very fortunate comeback victory
against a very, very poor Auburn team. Now, the one
reason you would like L s U in this spot.
They're at home, they're catching points. But the local start
time here eleven am. It's new and eastern eleven am central,
(02:56):
so I think that negates the Death Valley factor a
little bit. The fact that it's literally still breakfast time
when these teams are starting to play. I think a
night game would have better suited L s U s underdog,
you know, upset chances here. And the question for me
is on defense. For L s U is all about
their secondary. I mean, Auburn quarterback Robbie Ashford had three
(03:17):
and seventy two passing yards through four games, and he
threw for three thirty seven against L s U last week.
That's just something's wrong there with the L s U secondary. Now,
Henn and Hooker has been fantastic. The one knock I
will make on his game. For a mobile quarterback, his
sack ratio is pretty high. And we look at this
metric called pressure to sack rate, which is almost thirty
(03:39):
percent for him this year, meaning three out of every time,
three out of ten times that hooker is pressured, he
gets sacked. And for a mobile quarterback, that's a very
high rate. So I'm curious if the L. S U
frontline can you know, take that pressure and and and
make it negative plays. Uh, Cedric Tillman, it looks like
isn't gonna play this week. That's the star Tennessee wide receiver.
(03:59):
That's eight news for L. S U. Secondary. On the
other side, with Jaden Daniels, you already saw it in
that game against Auburn, just the physicality of the SEC,
I think starting to take its toll. He's He's not
a very thick individual, little thin, wiry um and I'm
curious if he can handle now another week in the
SEC against the You know, maybe Tennessee's defense is in
all world, but these are still SEC athletes. The one
(04:22):
thing I will say positive for Daniels this year hasn't
thrown an interception yet this season. We'll see if that continues. Um,
but he's been inefficient on deep balls, and I think
that's something that you'd like to see change, especially against
the ball secondary. Uh that's n in e p A
against the past. So you would think there's gonna be
opportunities for this L s U offense with a very
talented group of skill position players to be able to
(04:44):
stretch the field. I kind of like the over vibe
in this game. It's in the mid to low sixties.
I think Tennessee is gonna move the ball effectively. They
play at a lightning quick pace and all the things
I'm hearing from L s U. They had a player's
only meeting this week with the skill position guy is
trying to figure out why this passing game has been inefficient,
and I think Tennessee's defense really hasn't been tested. Akron
(05:06):
ball State pit with a backup quarterback. Florida with an
inaccurate quarterback and no talent at wide receiver. Brian Kelly
at some point will get this offense humming. That's what
he does, and I think over sixty four is probably
the best look I have for this game. The over vibes,
I like how you say that you know I'm feeling
Tennessee in the first half more than anything in this game.
(05:28):
Maybe it gets a little bit crazy in the second
half that valley comes alive. I like what you're thinking
with the eleven am local start time, and l s
U has been freaking brutal in the first half, so
I like Tennessee. It's only a point and a half
that Tennessee is favored by in the first half. You
could go money line. I got it at minus one thirty.
(05:49):
I'll spend the extra cash, but I like Tennessee to
at least have a lead at halftime because L s
U they have been such slow starters in these last
couple of games. I think Tennessee takes advantage of that.
I don't mind it at all. I mean, if you
were gonna ask me preseason this line's less than three,
I would be a little bit concerned because you're thinking
(06:10):
to yourself, well, Tennessee at l s you, they're gonna
be a road favorite. But l SU continues to get downgraded.
You know, every week. It seems like they've shot themselves
in the foot in different ways. And and even though
they won last week, not an impressive victory at all. Okay,
let's move it to uh the pack twelve. You tak
(06:30):
against you ce l A, You tak rough and tumble right,
you see l A. You know what, I don't know
how you feel about this. I don't want to go
off on a tangent, Jared, but I think there are
certain teams that get a a reputation, say Oregon, Oh,
just a bunch of bubble screens and just kind of
like tricking you. You. Ce l A seems to have
(06:51):
that type of of reputation. A lot of it isn't true. Granted,
you might not be as physical as Utah, but you
can't run the ball effectively without some physicality. So you
tell me what you think in this Utah U c
l A game. U c l A a three and
a half point home dog here. Yeah, And this line
(07:13):
opened three and it immediately jumped to four. I even
saw four and a half pop up at some point.
And then you started to see the other side. You know,
you saw some u c l A money come into
the market about midweek, and now we're sitting at that
three and a half number. I would say that's probably
where it closes. But let's just do line comparison for
(07:33):
a minute. So last week, Washington was minus three at
u c l A. Utah this week, let's just call
it three and a half. What you're telling me is
that Utah and Washington would be basically a pick them
on a neutral. And I don't buy that for a second.
I mean, Utah is better than Washington. So I think
the early line value just based off of comparing what
(07:56):
we saw with Washington last week to now Utah this week.
Unless you're willing to say Utah and Washington are evenly
matched teams, which I'm not willing to go there. I
think Utah is at least a field goal ahead of
Washington on a neutral, then you're getting early value. I
think here on the youths now Kyle Whittingham, I mean, goodness, gracious.
I went back and looked at these matchups nine and
three against the spread in twelve games against u c
(08:20):
l A five straight, not only straight up, but against
the number, and those five games have been incredibly one sided.
The youths are outscoring the Bruins two thirty four to
ninety nine in those five games. They're covering by an
average of eighteen and a half points. Physicality has been
a problem in this matchup. We haven't seen the Bruins
(08:42):
really get punched yet. Their schedule has been soft. Washington's
defense especially was soft last week. Prior to that, they
haven't really been tested. Alabama State Bowling, Green South Alabama.
Utah will present a physical challenge for this U c L.
A team that I don't know if they're willing to handle. Now.
(09:03):
The Utah offense has been playing slightly below expectation. Brand Keithy,
the tight end all World, probably first or second round
pick out for the year, Tavan Thomas. They're running back
average four and a half yards per carry, solid, but
nothing to write home about. I do think this Utah
offense is relying a lot on Cameron Rising. Now he's
(09:24):
making all the plays, but he's still searching for that
wide receiver to emerge. You could also say the ut
have been a little unlucky. They are a top fifteen
team efficiency on standard downs, but when you talk about
points per opportunity, outside the top eighty. So they're moving
the ball effectively, but they're not finishing those drives with
points on the offensive end. Now you have those two
outliers against Florida where they were inside the five. Neither
(09:47):
of them got points. That exkews the numbers a little bit.
But I think it's fair to say that this Utah
offense has performed a little bit below expectation. Now they're
facing a u c l A defense that's been okay.
They struggle on eight downs success right on third and
fourth downs. To me, that's where Utah really has the
edge in this game, Brian, because I just told you,
Utah is a top fifteen team. On standard downs, which
(10:09):
means first down, second down, they get positive yardage. That
means third and short, and that's bad news for u
c l as defense that really struggles to get off
the field. We talked about u c l A's offense,
they haven't faced the defense that's really pushed them yet.
They will this week. Utah's front seven maybe slightly below expectation,
but their secondaries elite. Clark Phillips might be the best
(10:31):
corner in the in the country. He's the reigning National
Player of the Week three picks against Oregon State. He's
the highest recruited player Utah has ever had in the secondary.
He is a guy that probably is going to be
one of the first corners taken off the board in
this draft. So while Utah's front seven, maybe with the
front line especially giving up some more yards per rush
that you would like. The secondaries elite, and I don't
(10:52):
think you cel A seen a defense quite like this
this year, So I like the utes in this matchup.
I'm curious about Dorrian Thompson Robinson where he's twenty two
years old. I swear he's been u c l a
starting quarterback for twenty of those twenty two years. You
know he's been there forever. But you mentioned you Utah's
defense and seeing a dual threat QB who can scramble
(11:13):
around make some things happen. I want to see how
big of a factor d trs legs are in this one,
because it might not be enough for U c l
A to get the win as a home dog, but
he could scramble around for a decent amount of yardage
and keep it interesting in the fourth quarter. I agree.
So there's a couple of things about Utah's defense that
(11:33):
have kind of led me to believe they're struggling a
little more than maybe some of the numbers indicate. First
of all, sometimes the coaches will tip their hand based
off of scheme. Utah's defensive coordinator Morgan scally has done
that over the last two games. I've noticed other people
that cover this industry have noticed he's putting five defensive
(11:54):
lineman down in the box on standard downs, which is
not some thing you've seen often from Utah and years past,
because they've been so good with getting pressure and stopping
the run with their front four base. But you're starting
to see minor adjustments more five down lineman for Utah
on standard downs with the goal of stopping the run.
(12:15):
The one positive thing I will say Utah has faced
two mobile quarterbacks already this year, Anthony Richardson and Emery Jones.
Now you could say one much more efficient than the other,
but neither really I think, are at the level of DTR.
I think Dorian Thompson Robinson will be the best quarterback
top to bottom NOS two toes that the Utes have
(12:35):
faced this season. And he's got a chip on his shoulder.
He came out after the win and said, we're the
worst four NO team in the country. I don't know
if that's a positive or a negative. I think he's
looking at it from a perspective of trying to pump
up his troops. But maybe he's in the process showing
us that yeah, maybe U c l A is not
as good as some of these other teams that are undefeated.
(12:55):
So I I don't know. I I think I like
the the the chip on his shoulder, but I would
be worried if the t R gets into some trouble
and tries to scramble too much and and doesn't really
stick to the game plan in this one. I like
that nose two toes and I also liked d t R.
He was talking smack against Washington last week, kind of like,
(13:15):
get off my field. You need some of that swag
if you're gonna pull off another upset at home against Utah.
We'll see how that unfolds. One more to look at
TCU at Kansas. The Jayhawks six and a half point
home dogs in this one. You got college game day
out there, a bunch of hoop. Yeah. Jalen Daniels, who
(13:37):
has been really good this year, struggle last week against
Iowa State. It was a grinder, four teen to eleven.
What in the world in the Big twelve is going
on over your fourteen to eleven? But they got it done.
Jayhawks are undefeated. My spiky sense is telling me you
are just waiting Jared Smith to pounce on the opposite
(13:58):
team facing the a Hawks. Am I right in this spot.
I was so gutted by how the end of that
Iowa State Kansas game transpired last week. I don't know
what Matt Campbell's smoking, but I seriously questioned, um, maybe
it's something in the water there in Aimes. You just
(14:19):
had a kicker miss twice from inside of forty. One
of them hit the upright, I think the other one
was just a flat out shank, and it's like fourth
and inches or fourth and one from inside the thirty
yard line, and you run them out there again to
to miss the last field goal of the game, which
was just an absolute miss, stone cold off the leg,
(14:41):
not even close. I just and again, this isn't a
you know, an Iowa State handicap. But my point is
Kansas was incredibly fortunate to win that game. Kansas had
negative yardage on their final four drives of the game.
I think it was like a minus twenty three. They
were outgained by a hundred ards in the game. They
they made an entire college football game where they gained
(15:03):
two d yards and they won. I mean it, it
was It was one of those games where you're on
the wrong side because the loss is in your ledger.
But when you look at the box score and you
really look at what Kansas did, you find it hard
to see positives. Now that being said, Bill Parcels, you
are what your record says. You are there five and oh.
(15:23):
So that's great. They've got game they come into town.
That's also great, they're trying to be six and oh.
For the first time since two thousand and seven, we've
seen massive upgrades in both of these teams power ratings.
TCU has been fantastic to also undefeated their offenses. First
in ep A per rush, six in e p A
per play. They are gaining nine yards per play on
first dounds Max Dugan eight five completion percentage on first dound.
(15:49):
And again, when we talk about overall efficiency on offense,
the early down numbers are much more predictive because that's
when the defense is kind of in betwixt and in between.
They don't know you're gonna run or you're gonna pass.
The third and fourth down numbers tend to be a
little more volatible. So the fact that TCU is doing
incredible things on first down leads me to believe that
(16:09):
their offense with Sunny Dike's is it's got staying power.
Now you could argue this is a letdown spot for
both teams. Kansas, we talked about that ugly win as
a home dog, but it was still a home dog
win over a team that's perennially been pretty solid in
the Big twelve. TCUs off of that ridiculous blow out
over Oklahoma, both teams you would say could be in
(16:29):
potential letdown spots now. I think when you look at
just a straight up metrics the horn Frogs there bfs bigger, faster,
stronger in in every category. They've got better players. They're
highly recruited players. They're guys that have been studs in
their respective high schools, where Kansas you know, doesn't really
get those guys to come play football and basketball they
do and football, they don't get those guys to come
(16:49):
to Lawrence UM. But I've been impressed with the way
this scrappy Jayhawks bunches looked in the non skill position areas,
their offensive lines grading out well twenty three and opportunity
rate and opera tunity rate is when your offensive line
provides at least four yards of space and the running
backs get at least four yards of of you know,
positive yardage. So this is an offensive line that doesn't
have a lot of beef or a lot of five
(17:10):
star talent, but they're they're they're moving some people around,
and the weakness for TCU is stopping the run outside
the top seventy five and defensive line yards a hundred
and sixteen in stuff. Right, that tells me the Jayhawks
won't be behind the chains much. Now. To me, Kansas
a little thinnit running back. They lost Daniel hill Shaw Jr.
In that game against Iowa State. He's the third leading
rusher behind Dave, Devin Neil and the quarterback Daniels. But
(17:33):
to me, TCU can negate all of this run game,
slow the clock down, try to keep it out of
tc us offensive hands if they could just get off
to a fast start and force Kansas to play from
behind the scoreboard. So this is a really tough game
to handicap because again and both teams are kind of
due for the letdown. But if you were going to
ask me which team has the talent to just run
away and hide and make this a three or four
(17:54):
score game, I absolutely would take TCU and I think
I'll get to the window on the horn Frogs Kid
good stuff. Jared Smith. I'm gonna enunciate every time I
go with Smith, you know, so I don't screw it
up like the beginning of this podcast. But we'll have
more with Jared from picks wise dot com on our
Saturday kickoff show. It is Fox Sports Radios Countdown to
(18:17):
Kickoff presented by bet MGM. Three hours leading up to
kickoff in that noon Eastern time time slot, so nine
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(18:37):
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the King of sports books, all right, want to welcome
in Bill kracken Burger, sports handicapper from crack wins dot
(19:00):
com joining us here on countdown to kick off. Crack,
let's get right in, baby, I'm looking at it. You've
got the Ravens and Bengals circled right here heading into
this weekend. So we'll go straight to Sunday Night football
in Baltimore right now, Baltimore in a three and a
half point home favorite. What are you seeing in this one? So? Hi,
(19:24):
Hi guys, um. You know I try to put you
guys on on our group of text. I try to
give you everything before I bet it, because things move,
you know. I'm betting in a lot of places that
things will move. The lines will move. I noticed today though,
may because a little bit closer to game time, even
though it's only Wednesday, uh, Wednesday, Thursday. As as the
week goes on, lines get tighter. Their respect is not there.
(19:47):
If I bet something on Monday morning at seven am,
you can guarantee it's moving a full point. I'm literally
controlling the NFL totals market on something. But yet now
betting middle of the week, I was like, told you
guys that kind of leaned towards the under there Cincinnati Baltimore.
I still see one, two, three and a half forty
eight across the board. Um, kind of see a lower
(20:10):
I thought there's a lot of points for these two teams. Uh,
kind of like the under here. I expect this more
towards game time to close a lower number. So looking
at the under there in that game, prime time game,
a lot of eyes will be on since um, you
know people just and to be a real blunt, a
lot of eyes will be on Baltimore too. This is
actually a good game. It's a tight game of the
(20:32):
line is free. Speaking of tight games, I know some
of the sharpest syndicate guys in the world, the sports
betting syndicates. They are all complaining and not complaining about
they're just it's really a prop to the bookmaker saying, hey,
you guys are getting the lines right. These sides are
very tight this season. Yeah, I think you'd have to
say crag. The Bengals offense been one of the more
(20:52):
disappointing units in the league so far. We just saw
them high flying their way to the Super Bowl and
it's been tough sledding so far, a lot of sacks
being given up. So yeah, the under might be the
right play. Let's go to another game here, You've got
silly at Arizona on your radar and you're looking at
the first half line. What are you thinking here with
(21:14):
the Eagles. You know, I've been tough on I've been
very tough on Philly. Uh you know, it's it's just
they seem to always break my heart when it seems
like at the end when it comes time the nitty
greeny when it counts, they just don't have I don't
see they have seen them that they have the heart
to close there. So I've been tough on Philly over
the years. Listen, they're people think that the best team
(21:37):
in football right now. I've heard that. Um, it's that's
not what I think. I but I think they are
probably even better than I thought. I thought. Teams made
them look good this year. Listen, they got Jacksonville, they
got a Minnesota Cousins thrown free interception zone in the
red zone. Made them look a little bit better. This
week might be a good spot here for Philadelphia. First half,
(21:58):
this line opened up a sick. It went down to five.
The residences I'm talking about the regular full game line
opened up six, went down to five everywhere. That's when
the first half ticked down from three and a half
down to three it's minus three, minus fifteen, minus three
minus twenty everywhere, including MGM and UH. I just think
(22:18):
the first half Philadelphia comes out a little powerful here.
Like I like the three. I like laying the three
instead of the three and a half. Of course, I'm
just kind of disappointed. Not that I am. I actually
liked the Arizona underseason wins before the US years started.
They're coaching and stuff. I'm just kind of down on them.
So even though their home primetime game probably a probably
(22:39):
a good spot for them, the line didn't move in
their favor. But that's why I'll go with the first
half here and later three points with Philly. Yeah, I
don't hate that at all. And how about this, it
might make you feel even better, crack. Arizona has not
scored a point in the first quarter. In four games,
they have yet to score a point, So if you're
(23:00):
thinking Philly in the first half, it makes a lot
of sense to me. You've got another game circled here, Dallas.
So if you look at the Cowboys, who have done
very well with Cooper Rush, they're on the road against
the defending champion Rams. And the Rams did not look
great on Monday night against San Francisco Rams are back
(23:20):
at home facing Dallas. What do you see in this one? Yeah,
the Rams, and both the Rams and Cincinnati are proving
that last year's Super Bowl may have even been a
flute between those two teams. Uh. This year they're both
not looking uh anything big and spectacular considering they were
in the Big Game last year. Dallas, like I said
on our Sunday Show, Week two, ten point move compared
(23:44):
to the preseason with the pre look one, I look ahead.
Like again, I looked this morning. I didn't even know
this Dallas three and one. The thing I didn't know
is they're not as bad off as people fought. I
went and looked at their season wins. It's back to
ten half. So this this team is looking back at
their pre preseason look ahead in regular season win line,
(24:08):
not as bad as people thought. Here Cooper RuSHA is
proving that he could play in the NFL. And you
know this big controversy with you know, Jerry Jones sticking
his sticking his uh, I don't know what out here
on the line, trying to get some look, always looking
to give me some controversy and some drama, saying oh well,
if that comes back. I hope they're battling for trust me,
they're paying back on what you know, a hundred and
(24:30):
fifty million. Remember they game, he's going to be the
starting quarterbacks who comes back. I mean maybe something will
happen later in the season, but or maybe he'll see
and maybe get some rust off him. But he'll be
the start in the quarterback anyway, in this game. I
bet a lot of my games when I bet, when
I bet game over, I like bet in first half overs.
That's what I like betting. I'm not real big on
(24:50):
unders first half, however, I kind of like I lean
to the under here in the first half rather than
go on the full game forty three, kind of lean under.
This is like again, this is an obtainable line of
twenty one. A matter of fact, bet MGM has twenty
one over fifteen, which means you lay one five on
the under. Kind of lean to the under there um
(25:11):
on the first half. I think they'll come out a
little bit slow. Rams have come out slower out like
every game, so I think we'll we'll look. This is
a big spot for the Rams though, by the way,
they really have to come out here and prove that
they are going to be a playoff team again this
year and last year wasn't that sloop? Early money has
came up coming on Dallas line opened up six, down
(25:31):
to five. I'm gonna stay away from the sides like
I mostly always do. I'm gonna gonna rather go here
with the total first half total, lean to the under
first half, by the way, real fast crack just a
minute here. But I'm in Denver. I'm here for the
Thursday night game. I just don't see how the Colts
are gonna score. I got the under Colts team total
(25:52):
at nineteen and a half. Will I'd be a rich
man at the end of the night. I don't dislike that.
I think we're looking at a low, slower scoring game tonight.
You know, would open up forty three and a half
down to forty two. I could see that easily. Listen,
the Colts are there. Just there's one of the teams
that I just can't figure out every week from weekend
(26:12):
week out. The first week, they had that nice little
comeback for the the overtime I think it was Houston UM,
and then they got the tie. It was a tie game.
I just and then they come out and somehow you
know every week. Like like I always say, any given someday,
anything can and will happen. So anything happened tonight, and
of course in this game too, I would lean towards
(26:33):
the under there like you said. I would actually, I
actually would like your probably your team total under um
more than even the game under. Uh. These kind of
games sometimes last minute and get a last minute cover
with the over with a couple of fluke things in
the fourth quarter if it's a tight game or something,
or even a backdoor cover. So um, I would kind
(26:55):
of lean towards your under their team total. That's a
that's a that's a good best there, right. I like
that very nice. Hey, be sure to check out the
new looking features in the bed MGM app. It's fast
and easy access to the sports you love, whether it's
live betting, the Daily Lions boost, or the cash out feature.
New users can use the code Countdown for a special offer.
We'll have much more with crack on Sunday morning. It's
(27:17):
Fox Sports Radios Countdown to Kickoff presented by bet MGM.
Three hours leading up to kickoff, so it's ten am
Eastern Time to one pm Eastern Time, and right up
to that one pm early window. We'll have another London
game for you, so I'll be going on during the
show so I have a lot of fun with crack myself,
(27:39):
Brian though, and also our guy Jeff Schwartz, eight year
NFL veteran. Check us out on Sunday.
Fox Sports Radio News
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