Robert Patman: Otago University International Relations Professor on the call between Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin

The Kremlin appears to have emerged victorious from a call with US President Donald Trump.  

Russia's agreed to pause firing on energy and critical infrastructure and continue discussions about a maritime ceasefire in the Black Sea. 

It's a clear deviation from Trump's goal going into talks – of Russia agreeing to a full 30-day ceasefire with Ukraine. 

Otago University International Relations Professor Robert Patman told Andrew Dickens that Trump hasn’t put that much pressure on Putin. 

He says all the concessions have been from Ukraine, and Trump has already pre-emptively given away bargaining concessions to Russia.  

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
So the phone call that the world has been waiting
for has taken place. In act, it's just for this
we have no details about what was discussed, if anything
was agreed, We know nothing at this point. But we
do know that Donald Trump, the United States President, put
forward his cease fireplay for Ukraine to his Russian counterpart
of Vladimir Putin, and up until this point, Trump has

(00:20):
been very bullish about getting a deal. But Putin has
also said he has quote serious questions going into the discussion.
So to talk about this add more, I'm joined by
Otaga University International Relations professor Robert Patman. Hello, Robert, Oh, Hello.

Speaker 2 (00:38):
Robert, Hello, good morning.

Speaker 1 (00:40):
How are you very good? All right? Has Trump been
just a little bit too bullish and confident thinking that
Putin would just roll over.

Speaker 2 (00:47):
On the positive certainly contrasts with that of Marco Rubio
and also other officials in the administration have been much
more mentioned. Mister Trump said had very positive expectations of
the phone call. We'll just have to see whether those
expectations translate into concrete results.

Speaker 1 (01:07):
Yes, he easily intimidated Ukraine, but Vedimiir Putin's another thing altogether.

Speaker 2 (01:13):
Well, he hasn't really put much pressure on mister Putin.
All the concessions have been from the victim of an invasion,
which is Ukraine, and he's already preemptively given away bulb
in concessions. To mister Putin, he said that he doesn't
envisage Ukraine joining NATO, which was a key demand of Russia.
And he also says that Ukraine will have to make

(01:35):
territorial concessions, it will have to give up some of
the land stolen by Russia.

Speaker 1 (01:40):
All right, Well, Donald Trump always said this could be
resolved in wigs criticism.

Speaker 2 (01:44):
Well, that's clearly not true. And the other thing here
is mister Trump may not be in a position to
deliver any peace even if he gets agreement with mister Putin,
because ultimately it's the victim of the invasion, Ukraine that
must agree to this. And they're adamant that that. You know,
they've lost too many people as a result of Russia's
incursion and invasion to settle for anything less than the

(02:06):
principles that everyone in international relations recognizes, where she's full
territory integrity and restoration of state sovereignty.

Speaker 1 (02:14):
What did you make of the faith that the Baltic
States want Land minds back. There's rising tension.

Speaker 2 (02:19):
Yes, well, you see many countries in Europe An increasing
Germany as well, believe that Ukraine is not This war
is not just about Ukraine. It's about stopping mister Putin
from his expansionist vision of Russian sphere of influence in Europe,
and many countries fear that if mister Trump hands mister
Putin part of Ukraine as part of a peace deal,

(02:42):
then that will have ramifications for other countries. Many are convinced,
as your commentation just said, that mister Poutin won't stop
with Ukraine.

Speaker 1 (02:52):
All right, to the other issue, Wins Peters is meeting
Marco Rubio in about ten minus time to talk stuff.
I suppose he's really going to be talking town rather
than peace.

Speaker 2 (03:02):
Yes, and obviously we'll be looking to get some sort
of exemption from the tariffs that are being are going
to be announced I think in early April against most
countries that export to the United States. I'm not confident
we will get an exemption because Australia wish is closest
to the United States than ourselves. It's already been indicated

(03:22):
to them. They won't be getting an exemption. On Australian
exports for an Aminimum steel, and that could have been
greeted by considerable disappointment by the Australian government. The other
thing here is, even if we do get an exemption,
the resulting trade war that's breaking out will affect New Zealand.
We trade more than one hundred countries around the world,

(03:43):
so we may get some bilateral relief, but we'll probably
have some reverses on the multilateral front.

Speaker 1 (03:49):
Okay, And of course we're worried. Winston's very worried about
security in the Pacific, So will he push.

Speaker 2 (03:54):
That or yes? Well, I think mister Peters, to his credit,
has consistently the US should be more engaged in the Pacific,
and that message finally seemed to register with the Biden administration,
who stepped up their engagement in the region. However, the
Trump administration with their disestablishment of USIAID and also their

(04:16):
withdrawal from the Paris Climate Accord. Remember, for most Pacific
island nation states, climate changes their number one national security concern.
Those issues raise questions about how committed is the Trump
administration to the fate and the well being of the
Pacific island nations, and that in turn, means that China
may have much greater scope to extend its influence than previously.

Speaker 1 (04:39):
Yep tiz Orgo. What a great time to be an
international relations professor, Robert Patman. I thank you for your time.

Speaker 2 (04:44):
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