Ryan Bridge: What Kiwis think of a CGT

Couple of things from this morning's poll on CGT. 

Basically, we're evenly split. 

As many of us are in favour of Labour's plan as are against it. 

The results are interesting, though. The details. 

So, more Aucklanders hate it more than the rest of the country. 

45% of Aucklanders oppose it. Only 32% support it. 

Now, Auckland holds the keys to the kingdom, electorally, as Labour found out in stunning defeat at the polls two years ago. 

Auckland lockdowns collapsed their vote. As did the cost of living. 

So, if you're National, that's where you focus your anti-CGT campaign. 

Its' also interesting, and the Herald piece on the poll makes this point, in areas where people are doing well, where house prices haven't caved. There's more support. In areas feeling poor because their house price has fallen through the floor, they don't like it. 

So basically, you have squeezed-middle voters telling you they feel too poor to support another tax. 

And so, you end up with this fight between people who like the sound of an idea, and people who feel it will threaten their chance of growing wealth. 

Then you've got to ask yourself, will the tax do what it says on the label? Will it pay for millions of extra doctor's visits? Where will these doctor's magically appear from? Does this party have a good track record with delivering on promises, practically if they tell you how much but not really how? 

You could look at this poll and think it's a win for capital gains. And it is. Sort of. But there's plenty of fodder for an anti-capital gains campaign which is no doubt being workshopped by some ad agency as we speak. 

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
A couple of things from this morning's poll on the

(00:01):
capital gains tax. Basically, we're evenly split, as many of
us are in favor of Labour's plan as are against that.
It's about thirty nine percent. Apiece results are interesting though
the details of them so more Aucklanders hate it than
the rest of the country. Forty five percent of jaffers
oppose it, only thirty two percent support it. Now Auckland
holds the keys to the Kingdom electorally, as Labor found out,

(00:25):
and that's starting defeat at the polls. Two years ago
Auckland lockdowns collapsed their vote, as did the cost of living.
So if you're national, that's where you focus your anti
capital gains tax campaign. It's also interesting and the herald
piece on the pole this morning makes this point. In
areas where people are doing well, you know, where house
prices haven't caved, haven't collapsed, there's more support for it

(00:49):
in areas are so less support for in areas that
are feeling poor because their house prices have fallen through
the floor, they don't like it so much. So basically
you have a squeezed middle voter telling you in Auckland,
probably telling you that they feel too poor to support
another tax, and so you end up with this fight

(01:09):
between people who like the sound of an idea and
people who feel it will threaten their chance of getting
wealthier or growing wealth. And then you've got to ask yourself,
will the tax do what it says on the label?
Will it pay for millions of extra doctor visits? You
know where? Will these doctors magically appear from? Does the
party that is offering this utopia have a good track

(01:34):
record with delivering on promises, particularly if they tell you
how much but not really how quite important. You could
look at this pole and you could think it's a
win for the Capital Gains because it sort of is
sort of, but there is plenty of fodder for an
anti Capital Gains campaign, which is no doubt being workshopped
by some ad agency in gray Lynn for the National Party.

(01:57):
As we speak. For more Early edition with Ryan Bridge,
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