Jamie Mackay: The Country host on Zespri releasing their forecast for the 2025/26 season

Zespri has issued its November forecast for the 2025/26 kiwifruit season, and it's predicting some solid results.

At a per-hectare level, record returns are currently projected across all categories.

The Country's Jamie Mackay explained further.

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Jamie McKay Country Hosters with us LO Jamie good Ay,
Heather and that fifty six cent dollars obviously helping exporters
in this country, including Zespri. How's the forecast looking for them? Well,
they've just released their November forecast, and the per tray
returns for all fruit groups from the latest forecast are

(00:21):
up from the August one look at and these are
telephone book numbers sort of at a per hectare level.
Record returns in our forecast for all fruit groups of
zespri or keyw fruit, for example, a hectare and you
need to own one of these heather of some gold
will return you somewhere between one hundred and seventy nine

(00:44):
and one hundred and eighty six thousand dollars for hectia.
That's a fantastic return. I caught up with the chief
executive of Zespriy Jason to Break in Japan early today
on my show. So Zespre's got a record crop of
two hundred and fifteen million trays. They've found a home
for it right around the world. They've got really strong

(01:04):
demand in Europe and North America, and North America even
better now that Trump's dropped as tariffs. They've also had
a favorable exchange rate, as we mentioned fifty six US
sense and Zesbury will release its final forecast for the
twenty five twenty six season in February. But look like

(01:25):
a lot of the primary sector, it's an industry on
a high at the moment. Yeah, what's going on with
the dairy farmers. Well, it's interesting because you know, we're
hearing record returns for Zestbury or for keyw fruit red
meats at an all time high. Dairy. The jury's out
a wee bit because you know what happens when the

(01:47):
price gets as high as it has ten bucks and more,
the tap gets turned on right around the world. And
even Kiwi farmers themselves are guilty, and I don't blame
them at all. So, you know, like farmings like paint
by numbers in some ways, you put stuff in the
front end of a cow and out the back end

(02:08):
or near the back end, comes to milk. So when
you've got a ten dollar payout, you can afford to
supplementary feed them. And farmers did go chasing the high
payout at the end of last season, and that's almost
working against them now. So what we've seen with the
GDT auction last night or on Tuesday night, should I
say seventh consecutive drop, we're at a new fifteen month low.

(02:31):
ASB senior economist Chris Tennant Brown said, the early signs
were that milk production would be very strong this season.
They opened ASB with a very I guess conservative at
the time forecast of nine to seventy five. Fonterra, as
far as I know, is still sticking at ten bucks,
but look the way it's going at the moment, weather

(02:55):
providing that ten dollars is certainly under threat. So Fonterra
will come out in early December. I think it's December
the fifth, and they will have a look at that
milk forecast price for the twenty five twenty sixth season,
the futures market, interestingly is at nine dollars sixty two,
and perhaps more worryingly, although it's a long time out

(03:16):
and we've got a lot of water to go under
the bridge before then, twenty six to twenty seven season
is at eight dollars ninety three. And I can speak
for dairy farmers on this one. Ten bucks was a
great price. Nine to fifty is still a good price
when you start getting under nine bucks. Bearing in mind
dairy and Zed said the cost of production something like
eight dollars sixty, it becomes a wee bit more marginal. Jamie,

(03:40):
thank you very much. Good to talk to you. And
when I was going to say, we'll talk to you
again on Thursday, but it is Thursday, isn't it. Jamie McKay,
Host of the Country. For more from Heather Duplessy Allen Drave,
listen live to news Talks. It'd be from four pm weekdays,
or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio.