Jeremy Hutton: Milford Asset Management expert on the share market potentially recovering following the Govt shutdown

The long-running US Government shut-down has come with plenty of economic ripple effects, but there's hopes it could come to an end.

The 41-day shutdown could last a few more days, but the the Senate passed legislation to attempt to reopen things.

Milford Asset Management expert Jeremy Hutton explained further.

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Jeremy Hutton lill Fit Asset Management is with me, Hi,
Jeremy good evening head. Now we spoke to Don Braid
not long ago. Main Freight share price has reacted well
to that result today, Am.

Speaker 2 (00:10):
Yeah, Main Freight share price was up over six percent today,
So I reacted pretty well. And you know, I did
listen to Don just before and he did mention that
the first quarter was pretty tough for them, but the
second quarter was was much improved and then you know
the outlook as well, what they commented on is going
to be stronger again still. So it was a lot
better than what the market was anticipating and it hence

(00:30):
reacted pretty well. Now there can be a little bit
of noise around main Freight, you know, given it is
a very global business these days, and some of the
global news recently around you know, Tariff's global trade shipping
has been reasonably negative. But you know, the key thing
about Mainfreight to remember is that you know, the Australian
and the New Zealand divisions are a real powerhouse and

(00:51):
you know they continue to really drive the performance of
his business. And that was that was really strong again.
So investors would do well to remember that. But then
the other point that I found really interested, and he
mentioned this as well as on the local New Zealand data,
it's just you know, them seeing that their customer volumes
or same customer volumes are increasing versus last year. You know,
this is just a further indicator for me that you know,

(01:12):
the New Zealand recovery is underway and you know that
more activity is happening, which is really good.

Speaker 1 (01:16):
Yeah, it is good. Now on the US chereman, we
have the share market recovering a little bit this week,
haven't we with the government shutdown potentially ending.

Speaker 2 (01:25):
Yeah, global stock markets were a bit nervous last week
and then they wobbled, and you know, tech and the
AI stocks they were leading the declines. And it was
a little bit odd to me. You wouldn't think that
AI companies are the most impacted by you know, a
US government shut down. It would be other sectors. But
you know, sometimes the market does sort of tend to
find the narrative that that suits the move. But I

(01:46):
would just say it was a general risk off move
last week, and you know that's reversed abo this week.
And you know gold that was up strongly again this
is seen as now a risk on play by markets
sort of like bitcoin or or you know, some of
the racier text. But there are still a few concerns
out there, you know, you know, some of those AI
companies have really high valuations. And then some of the

(02:07):
data out of the US has been a bit mixed.
It has been second tier data. But now with the
shutdown ending, we should get some of that high quality
US data. We can see how the economy is tracking
there and into the rest of the year.

Speaker 1 (02:21):
And is it normally the case that the performance of
markets is strong after a shutdown ending.

Speaker 2 (02:26):
Yeah, this is quite interesting. So you know, historical data,
it showed that, you know, we've had forty years of
US government shutdowns and since the been ending, and the
SMP five hundred is usually up on average two and
a half percent after one month of a shutdown ending,
and then after three months it's up over five percent.
So you know, reasonably good historical basis there. And then

(02:50):
you know, it could imply that the centarelly is back
on heading into the end of this year.

Speaker 1 (02:54):
Good stuff. Hey, thanks very much, Jeremy, appreciate it. Jeremy
hatton Milford Asset Management For more from Heather Duplessy Allen Drive.
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