Perspective with Ryan Bridge: National's strategy is looking riskier by the day

These polls that keep showing Labour ahead of National are a sign of how crap the economy is.

Up until a few weeks ago, I was ignoring polls because Labour didn't have any policy. Labour was ahead, but it didn't have any policy.

I thought, well this is a protest vote. They're pissed at National for not fixing the mess Labour left behind.

But the voters are not stupid. And they're voting for the no-policy party as a protest, not because they'd actually vote for them.

But now, Labour has some policies - albeit three. Including the contentious capital gains tax. And they will love how this has played for them so far, because it hasn't actually been a terrible mess.

So now that Labour has more policies, confirming they are indeed the party of more tax and more spend, the numbers should be turning, but they're not.

The latest IPSOS poll shows voters trust Labour more on the economy, the cost of living - and basically everything but foreign affairs and law and order. And foreign affairs is Winston Peters!

The economy should turn around - green shoots next year, etc, etc. But people aren't feeling that yet.

So National's strategy of wait and hope till November next year is looking riskier by the day.

As for the leadership question - well, Jacinda didn't teach us much about that. But  what we did learn from her is that you can switch leaders really close to an election day and not crash your vote. In fact, you can actually increase it.

So an 11th hour switch to Stanford or Bish or whoever will remain a live option right up till D-day.

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
These polls that keep showing laborhead a National a sign
of well, how crap the economy is really up. Until
a few weeks ago, though, I was sort of ignoring
the polls because Labor didn't have any policy, and I thought, well,
this is a protest vote. People are pissed at National
for not fixing the mess that Labor left behind. The
voters aren't stupid. Voters are never stupid, and they're voting

(00:23):
for a no policy party as a protest, not because
they'd actually vote for them. Now, Labor has some policies,
albeit three, but they include the contentious one, the capital
gains tax, and they will love how this has played
for them so far, because so far it actually hasn't
been a terrible mess. So now that Labor has policies
confirming they are indeed a party of more tax and

(00:45):
more spend, the numbers should, in theory, be turning, but
they're not. The latest IPSOS poll shows voters trust Labor
more on the economy and cost of living than National.
Basically everything except foreign affairs and law and order and
foreign AFA is Winston Peters. So not great for the coalition,
We're not great for National, I should say the economy

(01:06):
should turn around, green shoots next year, et cetera, et cetera.
How many times have we been told that? But people
just aren't feeling it yet. So national strategy for weight
and hope till November next year, which is likely when
they're going to go to the polls, is looking riskier
by the day. As for the leadership question, Jacinda didn't
teach us much about leadership, but we did learn something

(01:28):
important from her, and that is you can switch leaders
really close to an election day and not crash your vote.
In fact, you can actually increase it. So and eleventh
hour switch to Stanford or Bish or whoever will remain
a live option, I think, right up until D Day.
For more from Heather Duplessy Allen Drive, listen live to
news Talks. It'd be from four pm weekdays, or follow

(01:50):
the podcast on iHeartRadio