Perspective with Ryan Bridge: We'll soon find out what 'America First' means for NZ

Trump's tariffs are coming tomorrow - and he's basically playing God with the global economy.

I've found the stuff we should know:

The presser is 4pm Eastern time in the Rose Garden at the White House. That's 9am NZT. The reason it's late over there is because they want markets closed when he announces it. This is big league stuff.

This guy has the power to make or break countries, markets and entire industries.

Here's some stats:

Goldman Sachs' odds on a US recession are up from 20 percent to 35 percent.

Moody’s reckons it could cost 5.5 million jobs - that would lift the unemployment rate from 4 percent to 7 percent. GDP would fall 1.7 percent from peak to trough.

For context, that's the equivalent of 2/3rds of the growth our economy is expecting this year.

Reciprocal tariffs are broad-based tariffs across all countries. The White House has been tight-lipped on carve-outs or exemptions, but some countries are hammering the phones begging for them.

They're panicked on Downing Street - though Starmer says he's staying calm and they're working the phones. Talk of getting an economic deal has turned into just that - they now say they're likely to be hit like everyone else.

India - they've been on the phones. They're notorious for trade protectionism, so it's a bit rich from them but their share market's been feeling the heat.

Vonderlayen's readying the war chest. The EU will fight back. Britain won't. Neither will Vietnam. Neither will New Zealand.

Luxon's message today was keep calm and carry on.

Agriculture, as we've been talking about since the minute Trump tweeted about it, is on the cards. The US overtook the Aussies this year as out second largest export market for goods, thanks to red meat.

That could hurt. But applied equally to Argentinian and Aussie beef, perhaps not so much.

It all depends on the number. 10 percent is fine. 25 percent is a bigger problem.

The real threat is the word's biggest economy going into recession - and the flow-on effects.

The smart money's already been piling into gold and European stocks.

Tomorrow we find out what 'America First' really means for the rest of us.

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Trump's tariffs are coming tomorrow. He's basically going to play
god with the global economy. And here's the stuff we
should know. Presser is at four pm Eastern time in
the Rose Garden at the White House. That's nine am
our time, So set your alarms if you're a late sleeper.
The reason it's late over there is because they want
the markets to be closed when he announces it. This

(00:20):
is big league stuff. The guy has the power to
make countries, to break countries, to break markets and tire industries.
Here's some stats for you. Goldman Sachs odds on a
US recession are up from twenty percent to thirty five percent.
Moody's they reckon could cost worst case scenario five point
five million jobs that would see the unemployment rate go

(00:41):
from around four percent now to seven percent. GDP could
be chopped one point seven percent from peak to trough.
For context, that is about two thirds the equivalent of
two thirds of the growth of our economy expecting this year.
Reciprocal tariffs are basically broad based tariffs tax on imports
across all countries. They've been tight lit. The White House

(01:04):
has on so far on carve outs or exemptions but
some countries are hammering the phones, begging for them on
Downing Street. They are panicked. Although Starmer says he's staying
calm and keeping cool, they're working the phones. Talk of
getting an economic deal has turned into just that. They
now say it's likely going to get hit like everyone else. India,
they've been on the phones, which is ironic. They're notorious

(01:26):
for trade protectionism there, so it's a bit rich from them,
but their sheer market's been felling the heat. Bonder Lan
is readying the war chest. The EU says they will
fight back. Britain won't. Neither will Vietnam. Neither will New Zealand.
Luxem's message today was much the same as Starmer's. Keep
calm and carry on. Agriculture, as we've been talking about

(01:47):
since the minute that Trump tweeted about this is on
the cards. The US overtook the Aussies this year. Is
our second largest export market for goods thanks to red
meat that could hurt, but applied equally to the Arntententennian
and the Aussie beef, perhaps not so much. It all
depends on the number ten percent we could stomach twenty
five percent a bigger problem. The real threat is the

(02:09):
world's biggest economy going into recession and the flow on
effects of that. The smart money has already been piling
into gold and European stocks. Tomorrow we find out what
America First really means for the rest of us. For
more from Heather Duplessy Allen Drive, listen live to news
talks it'd be from four pm weekdays, or follow the

(02:30):
podcast on iHeartRadio.