The United States consumer sentiment is the lowest it's been since 2022.
Like investors, consumers have growing concerns about the uncertainty of tariffs.
Devon Funds Management Greg Smith talks to Mike Hosking about the stats, an update in New Zealand's food prices, and A2 Milk's big rise.
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Right over from Devon Fund's management, Greg Smith. Welcome to
Monday Morning, Mike. It's sentiment in the US is souring, isn't.
Speaker 2 (00:06):
It certainly is.
Speaker 3 (00:08):
So your consumers getting a bit perturbed about all the
stock market volatility and not surprising, and all the uncertainty
around tariff. So, yeah, this is a University of Michigan
survey from March and they posted ten point five percent
to climb from fabriand you're quite a bit below estimates
as well. It's twenty seven percent below a year ago,
and it's actually the lowest since November twenty twenty two.
(00:28):
And yeah, consumers is getting a bit worried about what
the future holds. You look at the future expectations measure
that was down fifteen percent on a monthly basis, and
it's thirty percent lower than a year ago. And it's
not just it's not just Democrats that are concerned about situations.
It was Republicans as well, so their expectations fell ten
percent and you're not surprisingly. All this goes with the
(00:49):
concerns around a higher inflation environments. The one year inflation
outlook that spike to just under five percent. That's the
high since Novem twenty twenty two and the five year
outlook three point nine percent. They have to go back
to February nineteen ninety.
Speaker 2 (01:02):
Three to get that sort of read.
Speaker 3 (01:04):
So it does also contradict that data we had last
week about the consumer price index sort of being under
control and wholesale price is flat, and I suppose.
Speaker 2 (01:12):
Consumers just they aren't buying.
Speaker 3 (01:13):
The White Houses claim that tariffs are one off shock,
and I suppose it's also goes against what the economic
textbooks will tell you. So I mentioned to see what
the feed makes of all that they meet this week.
They expected to hold and probably will adopt a wait
and see approach, and until I suppose all the dust
seedles on these trade maneuverings.
Speaker 1 (01:29):
Okay, and then we come back home with these food
prices a month or month looked okay, fruit and vegies
are down and all of that sort of stuff. So
what do we make into the annual figure? Were worried
or not?
Speaker 3 (01:37):
Yeah? So the annual figure was not so good news.
So food prices up two point four percent annually. That
followed a two point three percent increase in January. So
it's grocery food that was up four point three percent,
and particularly dairy milk high Look at bout at the
average price of five and a grand block seven bucks
steady two in February.
Speaker 2 (01:55):
That's sixty percent.
Speaker 3 (01:57):
Higher than this time last year, so it's certainly upsetting things.
Free vegies they were lowered down six percent, Kerma, potatoes
and onions. As you say, this helped the monthly figures.
So prices for food actually foul half percent in Februares
that's quite good news, and it was after they rose
almost two percent in January. Also, there was some sweet
news for chocolate lovers. Mike so Valentine's Day special saw
(02:19):
box chocolate prices down twenty six percent in the month.
But there was some other interesting reading with some of
those other selected price and disease. So good news for travelers.
International affairs down five percent in the twelve months, so
overall looking pretty good. It feels like we're getting an
encouraging picture for inflation, although tariffs do have the potential
supposed to upset the apple cart as it were.
Speaker 1 (02:40):
Indeed, but what about a two?
Speaker 3 (02:43):
What about a two up seven percent on Friday, So
it wasn't a company's specific announcement. It's more about what's
happening in China, their main market. Basically, government agencies are
trying to get the birth rate going again now that
has really struggled in recent years over there, despite the
one child policy in twenty fifteen. Then they've got the
two child policy in twenty sixteen, but actually, yeah, we
(03:05):
started going the other way so consumed living.
Speaker 2 (03:08):
Costs, career priorities.
Speaker 3 (03:10):
Cut the pandemic copasy didn't help and actually saw China
its first population for in decades back in twenty twenty two.
So yeah, officials are trying to get things going. To
the inner Mongolian.
Speaker 2 (03:21):
Capital of Hohot that's offering up to one.
Speaker 3 (03:23):
Hundred thousand and one for families to have a third child,
it's around about twenty four thousand kiwek, so it's not
small beer there or fifty thousand for those having a
second and some cities that have introduced measures already.
Speaker 2 (03:33):
Having some success.
Speaker 3 (03:35):
Tianaman that's seen increased newborns by seventeen percent over the
past year since they've introduced policies, so this is good
news for infant milk demand with more babies. At has
actually been doing quite well in China anyway, despite a
shrinking infant milk market. They've been able to position themselves
as a premium brand that's benefited the financials. We saw
them to clear its first dividend recently and also showing
(03:56):
up in the price charts.
Speaker 2 (03:58):
She is now almost fifty percent year to day. I
like him.
Speaker 1 (04:01):
What are the numbers?
Speaker 3 (04:03):
So numbers actually were something to like on Friday as well,
so amidst all the volatility last week, so the Dow
up one point seven percent, s and P five hundred
up two point one percent, NASDAC up two point six percent,
for one hundred up one point one percent. Ozzie was
up half percent. So it was the exitics fifty twelve
to two sixty six Kmmoddie's goal down five bucks, twenty
nine hundred and eighty four, Oil up sixty three cents
(04:25):
sixty seven spot eighteen. Currencies Kilby also flying high fifty
seven point five against the US that was at point
nine percent, Australian dollar ninety point nine high, British pound
forty four point five were high by one percent there
as well, and against the end up one and a
half percent eighty five point five this week. No doubt
we've got the ongoing developments around tariffs. But we've got
(04:46):
happy results in Fonterra speaking dairy the warehouse, with some
manufacturing and service started, We're gonna have a dairy auction.
And are we still in recession? We've got fourth quarter
GDP numbers just off shore. We've got Niken FedEx, we've
got trying to retail sales, U retail sales.
Speaker 2 (05:01):
Building permits and Mike.
Speaker 3 (05:02):
A big week for central banks, Bank of Japan, Bank
of England and of course the feed What will they
say about all these tariff deviolances?
Speaker 1 (05:09):
So fantastic? All right, catch up soon. I appreciate a
very much. Greg guest Smith Different Funds Management.
Speaker 3 (05:13):
For more from the Mic Asking Breakfast, listen live to
news talks.
Speaker 1 (05:17):
It'd be from six am weekdays, or follow the podcast
on iHeartRadio
Right over from Devon Fund's management, Greg Smith. Welcome to
Monday Morning, Mike. It's sentiment in the US is souring, isn't.
Speaker 2 (00:06):
It certainly is.
Speaker 3 (00:08):
So your consumers getting a bit perturbed about all the
stock market volatility and not surprising, and all the uncertainty
around tariff. So, yeah, this is a University of Michigan
survey from March and they posted ten point five percent
to climb from fabriand you're quite a bit below estimates
as well. It's twenty seven percent below a year ago,
and it's actually the lowest since November twenty twenty two.
(00:28):
And yeah, consumers is getting a bit worried about what
the future holds. You look at the future expectations measure
that was down fifteen percent on a monthly basis, and
it's thirty percent lower than a year ago. And it's
not just it's not just Democrats that are concerned about situations.
It was Republicans as well, so their expectations fell ten
percent and you're not surprisingly. All this goes with the
(00:49):
concerns around a higher inflation environments. The one year inflation
outlook that spike to just under five percent. That's the
high since Novem twenty twenty two and the five year
outlook three point nine percent. They have to go back
to February nineteen ninety.
Speaker 2 (01:02):
Three to get that sort of read.
Speaker 3 (01:04):
So it does also contradict that data we had last
week about the consumer price index sort of being under
control and wholesale price is flat, and I suppose.
Speaker 2 (01:12):
Consumers just they aren't buying.
Speaker 3 (01:13):
The White Houses claim that tariffs are one off shock,
and I suppose it's also goes against what the economic
textbooks will tell you. So I mentioned to see what
the feed makes of all that they meet this week.
They expected to hold and probably will adopt a wait
and see approach, and until I suppose all the dust
seedles on these trade maneuverings.
Speaker 1 (01:29):
Okay, and then we come back home with these food
prices a month or month looked okay, fruit and vegies
are down and all of that sort of stuff. So
what do we make into the annual figure? Were worried
or not?
Speaker 3 (01:37):
Yeah? So the annual figure was not so good news.
So food prices up two point four percent annually. That
followed a two point three percent increase in January. So
it's grocery food that was up four point three percent,
and particularly dairy milk high Look at bout at the
average price of five and a grand block seven bucks
steady two in February.
Speaker 2 (01:55):
That's sixty percent.
Speaker 3 (01:57):
Higher than this time last year, so it's certainly upsetting things.
Free vegies they were lowered down six percent, Kerma, potatoes
and onions. As you say, this helped the monthly figures.
So prices for food actually foul half percent in Februares
that's quite good news, and it was after they rose
almost two percent in January. Also, there was some sweet
news for chocolate lovers. Mike so Valentine's Day special saw
(02:19):
box chocolate prices down twenty six percent in the month.
But there was some other interesting reading with some of
those other selected price and disease. So good news for travelers.
International affairs down five percent in the twelve months, so
overall looking pretty good. It feels like we're getting an
encouraging picture for inflation, although tariffs do have the potential
supposed to upset the apple cart as it were.
Speaker 1 (02:40):
Indeed, but what about a two?
Speaker 3 (02:43):
What about a two up seven percent on Friday, So
it wasn't a company's specific announcement. It's more about what's
happening in China, their main market. Basically, government agencies are
trying to get the birth rate going again now that
has really struggled in recent years over there, despite the
one child policy in twenty fifteen. Then they've got the
two child policy in twenty sixteen, but actually, yeah, we
(03:05):
started going the other way so consumed living.
Speaker 2 (03:08):
Costs, career priorities.
Speaker 3 (03:10):
Cut the pandemic copasy didn't help and actually saw China
its first population for in decades back in twenty twenty two.
So yeah, officials are trying to get things going. To
the inner Mongolian.
Speaker 2 (03:21):
Capital of Hohot that's offering up to one.
Speaker 3 (03:23):
Hundred thousand and one for families to have a third child,
it's around about twenty four thousand kiwek, so it's not
small beer there or fifty thousand for those having a
second and some cities that have introduced measures already.
Speaker 2 (03:33):
Having some success.
Speaker 3 (03:35):
Tianaman that's seen increased newborns by seventeen percent over the
past year since they've introduced policies, so this is good
news for infant milk demand with more babies. At has
actually been doing quite well in China anyway, despite a
shrinking infant milk market. They've been able to position themselves
as a premium brand that's benefited the financials. We saw
them to clear its first dividend recently and also showing
(03:56):
up in the price charts.
Speaker 2 (03:58):
She is now almost fifty percent year to day. I
like him.
Speaker 1 (04:01):
What are the numbers?
Speaker 3 (04:03):
So numbers actually were something to like on Friday as well,
so amidst all the volatility last week, so the Dow
up one point seven percent, s and P five hundred
up two point one percent, NASDAC up two point six percent,
for one hundred up one point one percent. Ozzie was
up half percent. So it was the exitics fifty twelve
to two sixty six Kmmoddie's goal down five bucks, twenty
nine hundred and eighty four, Oil up sixty three cents
(04:25):
sixty seven spot eighteen. Currencies Kilby also flying high fifty
seven point five against the US that was at point
nine percent, Australian dollar ninety point nine high, British pound
forty four point five were high by one percent there
as well, and against the end up one and a
half percent eighty five point five this week. No doubt
we've got the ongoing developments around tariffs. But we've got
(04:46):
happy results in Fonterra speaking dairy the warehouse, with some
manufacturing and service started, We're gonna have a dairy auction.
And are we still in recession? We've got fourth quarter
GDP numbers just off shore. We've got Niken FedEx, we've
got trying to retail sales, U retail sales.
Speaker 2 (05:01):
Building permits and Mike.
Speaker 3 (05:02):
A big week for central banks, Bank of Japan, Bank
of England and of course the feed What will they
say about all these tariff deviolances?
Speaker 1 (05:09):
So fantastic? All right, catch up soon. I appreciate a
very much. Greg guest Smith Different Funds Management.
Speaker 3 (05:13):
For more from the Mic Asking Breakfast, listen live to
news talks.
Speaker 1 (05:17):
It'd be from six am weekdays, or follow the podcast
on iHeartRadio
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