Jacqueline Rowarth: Lincoln University Adjunct Professor of AgriScience on the potential impact of geopolitics on agricultural exports

Geopolitics could be increasingly dictating the future of agriculture.  

A Rabobank report is warning tensions between the United States and China means agricultural exports are at risk of "becoming pawns on a geopolitical chessboard." 

It suggests 2026 could mark a new era of geopolitical influenced agriculture sector. 

Lincoln University Adjunct Professor of AgriScience Jacqueline Rowarth told Mike Hosking the more unstable the planet is, the more unstable business is.  

But she says New Zealand is in a good position as a small nation who are the best producers of low impact, high quality animal protein. 

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
We've got a new reportant to the geopolitical forces shape
in global architecture agriculture rather rabobankers warning us next to
you could mark a new era where traditional market forces
no longer fully dictate prices or production. So, Sarah, the
shot of courses as you it's trying to stand off
at the moment, and there are among beans or soy
beans or whatever they're arguing over. Doctor Jekyl and rowath
Isnate Junct Professor and Egroscience, Lincoln University, Jaquelin, good morning

(00:21):
to you.

Speaker 2 (00:22):
Good morning, good morning. Now is this.

Speaker 1 (00:25):
Any different from what we deal with at the moment?
I mean, geopolitics is a major for I mean we
saw it with beef over the weekend from Donald Trump, didn't.

Speaker 2 (00:31):
We Well, that's all part of it. And I think
that we've been through a period of actual relative calm
in terms of geopolitics. But we're going back to the
olden days sort of pre the nineteen forty five era.
We've got huge swings about powers, and our major strength
is that we are trusted. We're still forced on the

(00:52):
Transparency International Index. People trust us to do what we
say will do, so they will continue to negotiate with us,
and of course we produce great product.

Speaker 1 (01:01):
Yes we do, and people want beef, and so we
sell more beef to the American What about the soybean
situation in Minnesota. I mean, if you're a soybean farmer
in Minnesota and Trump's running the place and they're not
getting it, what do you do? How do you plant?
How do you plan?

Speaker 2 (01:14):
It's very difficult for them, and that does affect the
feed prices for the animals that they have in barns
over in the USA. It also affects a course they're
trade with China. So we watch those interactions with extreme
interest while thinking what it might mean for New Zealand
and dairy products. Will it be more desirable if things

(01:35):
over there are more expensive or will it be less
so because Trump will probably start subsidizing things for the farmers. Absolutely,
they've got problems. This is over in America. But what
can we say? Trump changes his mind all the time,
as we saw over the weekend, and that is just
when they.

Speaker 1 (01:52):
Elected him, well exactly, and you can't plan for that
sort of thing. And we've seen grain with Ukraine and
the war, so you never know when a war is
what we're suggesting, is the more unstable the planet is,
the more uncertain doing businesses.

Speaker 2 (02:05):
Yes, absolutely, And there are other implications with all this uncertainty,
things like fertilizers, agrochemicals. Have been some concerned about that
in New Zealand, and that makes our products more difficult
to produce. So this whole uncertainty, that's why people are
saying we should diversify. But we must remember that we're
the best producers, least impact producers of highest quality animal

(02:27):
protein and people need animal protein for their health. So
we're in a good position because of that. And we're small, Mike,
We're just small.

Speaker 1 (02:34):
And we're agile because of it. Jackevil and always a
pleasure to heavy on the program. Jaqueline Row with Edgent,
professor or negroscience at Lincoln University. I think overall will
be okay and that for more from the Mic Asking Breakfast,
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