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November 17, 2025 17 mins

International relations and geopolitics have become increasingly complex in the last few decades, many countries in the Pacific pulled between China and the United States – the two superpowers at odds with each other. 

But former Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull believes the relationships with the two are equally important. 

“The relationship with the US is obviously the bedrock of our security relationship,” he told Mike Hosking. 

“Whereas the relationship with China is, you know, much more focused on economics and trade, but the two, these two superpowers are absolutely critical partners.”  

China has been working to grow its influence in the Pacific, the area presenting several strategic opportunities for the nation – but is it a cause for concern? 

“The reality is that China is a superpower,” Turnbull told Hosking.  

“It is, you know, an economic peer equal or close to an equal of the United States, and they’re seeking to exert influence around the world and in our region.”  

He says they want to maintain strong relationships with their Pacific Island neighbours, and one way they did that while he was Prime Minister was through the funding of the Coral Cable, which links Australia, Papua New Guinea, and the Solomon Islands. 

“We thought that was a better outcome from a security point of view,” 

“But also, it was a better outcome for them because they weren’t in debt.” 

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Episode Transcript

Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
From warning to you too.

Speaker 2 (00:01):
Now as you understand and observe it at the moment,
what do you reckons more important to Australia, the Australia
US relationship or the Australia China relationship as regards to
the Pacific Well.

Speaker 1 (00:11):
I think they're both. You know, they're both equally important.
You know, the relationship with the US is obviously the
bedrock of our security relationship, and that's whereas the relationship
with China is much more focused on economics and that

(00:31):
our trade. But you know, the two these two superpowers
are absolutely critical partners. But you know, the security relationship,
I guess dominates in the American context, and of course
trade dominates in the China context.

Speaker 2 (00:50):
So talk about China and the Pacific Sea. Mike Burgess
this week ACO said some interesting things about the Chinese
and the way they're operating in this part of the world.
Does that worry I mean, did that worry you when
you were running Australia.

Speaker 1 (01:01):
Well, look, I think you've got the defense. What you
meant by worry, it's it's you know, I'm not a
worried do get worried too easily? But the reality is
that China is a superpower. It is, you know, an
economic here equal or close to an equal to the
United States, and they're seeking to exert influence around the

(01:26):
world and in our region. So they're they're here, they're
part of our region. We you know, we want to
make sure that we want to maintain strong relations with
our Pacific Ireland neighbors. And so for example, when I

(01:49):
was Prime Minister, one of the things we did was
rather than have the Solomons and b and G going
to debt with Chinese state owned lenders to Bundai Huawei
controlled cable network, we provided one largely out of our

(02:11):
aid budget. The court's called the Coral Cable. That's the
the country's concern. Solomon's and P and G paid for
about twenty percent of it. We paid thirty percent of it,
and it's operated by an Australian company called Focus. And
we thought that was a better outcome from a security
point of view for US and our neighbors, but also

(02:35):
it was a better outcome for them because they weren't
in debt. I mean, you know, one of the one
of you see this with Tonga in particular. One of
the problems with developed developing countries and their dealings with
China is that so much of what they're acquiring is
through debt arrangements, which of course they can't you know,

(02:55):
they can't afford to repay and they can't afford the service.
And so you know, you're better off recognizing the reality
and providing the economics for this country's need wherever you
can through the aid budget.

Speaker 2 (03:09):
So what's it about. I mean, look at the Cooks
and our Foreign Minister Winston Peters. He's always argued, at
least to some degree, that the friendship card will count
for something, right, whereas others argue, look, it's all bottom
line and checkbook. Does friendship do you think count for anything?
Or is it all about the money?

Speaker 1 (03:26):
Well, I think it's a I think it's human nature, right,
I think friendship is very important. But equally, if you're
broke and you know your friend doesn't have anything much
to offer you, and someone who is either not been
a friend for so long or is a very new
friend has got a lot to offer you, that'll be
very attractive. So you know, yeah, I mean the checkbook

(03:49):
is very relevant and and you know, and I mean
you know, one of the issues with Look, when I
was PM the then of China leaka Chuan has sadly
no longer. Lis was keen for us to sign up
to the Belton Road, which we declined to do. Okay,

(04:10):
and I said to him at the time, we don't
have a problem with Belton Road. We're very happy to
partner with you on Belton Road projects. And you know,
it's a sensible project. You can have Belton Rode logo
on one side and we'll put a big kangaroo on
the other so that we're involved. But we don't want

(04:31):
to be signing up to something that is essentially a brand,
you know, because you don't know what is its content.
It's a slogan, right and so so we we were
and I would remain very happy to cooperate with China
on AID in the Pacific, but it's got to be worthwhile.
I mean, if you go and you know, provide a million,

(04:55):
many millions of dollars to build some you know, palatso
for the Prime Minister, well that may be you know,
that may not be as useful as building some energy
infrastructure or some housing for the population. You know, it's
like it's a it's a question of what the money

(05:17):
is being spent on so the Unfortunately, a lot of
if the aid is simply going to if you just
turn up with a bag of money and you say
to the government, well, what are your fancies? Will give
you the money to spend them whatever you like, that

(05:37):
may actually not be a good application of the aid dollars,
you know. So, so I think it's and it's a different,
different perspective. So from our perspective, we've always been very
focused on ensuring that the aid we spend in the
Pacific gets the right development outcomes. In other words, it's

(05:59):
you know, it's to restore rising living standards, improving economic circumstances, education,
all of those things.

Speaker 2 (06:07):
As regards America. From an Australian point of view, explaining
it to New Zealand is what do you reckon Aucus?
You know, actually is literally how will it pan out
and over what period of time? And will it work
towards something substantive?

Speaker 1 (06:19):
Well, okay, well the answer is that it could. What
is August AUCUS is above all, an agreement the design
to deliver nuclear powered submarines for the All Australian Navy.
That is ninety nine point nine percent of what AUCUS
is about. The deal involves Australia building a naval base

(06:46):
for nuclear powered submarines in Perth, a dockyard to support them,
and the aim is to acquire a number of Virginia
class secondhand and new Virginia class submarines from the United States,
which is their main nuclear power submarine. The problem with

(07:07):
that part of the deal, and I've been pointing this
out for years now, is that the Americans do not
have enough for their own mating. They're not producing enough
to replace retiring boats and they have not been able
to lift the production rate. And the US legislation makes
it very clear, and as they've been very open about this,
that unless they can dramatically increase their production rate ie

(07:30):
double it, they will not be able to spare any
for Australia. So the very high likeliquod is it will
end up with no nuclear powered subs from the Americans
at all. The longer term plan is for Australia in
the UK to build a new nuclear powered submarine, the
so called SFN Orcus. That is the first one of

(07:53):
those will not be seen for twenty years. You know,
it's so long, so way off in future. It's well,
you know, it is way up in the future and
you would think the strategic challenges we face through a
bit nearer terms than that. So you know, I'm not

(08:14):
I'm not a fan of AUCUS. I think it's a
bad deal. I think it's very asymmetric. I mean we
with the Americans, we're providing them with what they want,
which is the base, the dockyard, all of that stuff,
giving the money to go into their submarine industry three
billion ner s dollars. We have no certainty of getting
any submarines at all. And that is a risk that

(08:37):
the Australian government has taken on with it eyes open.
So if the Aanks, you know, in twenty thirty one,
say look, we're not producing enough subs for ore on purpose,
we can't spare you any we can't say we've been dudded,
because this is a risk that our government took on
with their eyes open, and it's set out in the legislation. Now,

(08:57):
what's the other one percent of AUCUS. Well, that's what's
called Pillar two, and that is supposed to be cooperation
on strategic technology, cybersecurity, what autonomous systems and so forth. Frankly,
very little has happened there. None of the three governments
have put much money into it, and even August boosters

(09:19):
have said this is totally undercooked and underdone. So it is,
you know, I mean it could be good. I mean,
as you know, Australia and the US and the UK
and New Zealand cooperate on a lot of things, including
signals intelligence, so there's potential there. The idea was to

(09:41):
eliminate barriers to trade between the three countries UK, US
Australia in terms of military technology and equipment. That has
been partially done, but you know, August Pillar two I
would say is still a work in progress. So I
wouldn't say it's I wouldn't say you could write it off.

(10:02):
But even people like Abe Denmark, who was one of
the American officials that was very involved in it in
the Baden administration, they said that it needs a complete
rethink and needs some energy put into it. So that's
that's my assessment of Orcus for you.

Speaker 2 (10:20):
Now, what's your assessment of your party at the moment
in their current dilemma?

Speaker 1 (10:25):
Oh god, oh what a mess. Well, it's de javous
all over again, isn't it. I mean, it's you know,
we've been having the same friend of mine founder in
the UK found an article I'd written in two thousand
and nine talking about how the right wing and the
Liberal Party were turning climate policy and global warming into

(10:47):
a culture war issue and ignoring the science and rationality.
And you know, nothing's changed, right it is. I used
to say when I was in politics, energy policy should
be guided by nearing an economics, not ideology and idiocy.
But they're at it again and it is you know,

(11:07):
you'd have to say about the sort of climate Denia's
right wingers in the Liberal Party who now control the party,
there's no question about that. As you could say, they've
got the memory of goldfish and the dining habits of Piranhas.
You know, they just they forget I'm doing the same
thing all over again, grandpag day, every day, and they're

(11:30):
just constantly tearing into each other. And so you know,
I don't take anything away from Atney Albanisi for his
big majority. Congratulations to him, but boy the Dutton and
you know, the right wingers in the Liberal Party have
made it very easy for him to get there, and

(11:50):
they continue to do it and they you know, they
are they hold hardly any city seats in Australia and
so now they're going out there and you know, putting
a big sign up which says we don't take climate
change or the environment seriously because they can quibble with
all the weasel words they like. But that is what

(12:12):
the public, that's how the public will see it, which
is why the and full of moderate liberals that are
left centrist liberals that are left in the party are
so so upset. But it is, you know, it's the best.
It's that they are the best friends the liberal the
right wingers in the Liberal Party and their friends in

(12:33):
the media, you know, Murdock media. Mostly they are the
best friends the labor parties.

Speaker 2 (12:38):
Ever had the Susan Lee survive? I mean, does the
coalition survive? And how permanent are the problems do you think?

Speaker 1 (12:43):
Well with will Susan survive? They don't know, but you know,
I don't think these you know, people do not give
it much prospect of surviving. But she could. But you know,
first time opposition leaders, after you go into opposition generally
don't have a last very long, and the least in
the Liberal experience. But if you know, you may hang on.

(13:06):
Are the problems permanent? Yeah? You know what I think
they are. I think that I think the problem is
that the branch membership. You've got to remember, the Liberal Party,
unlike the Labor Party, who's you know, ultimately it's controlled
by the unions. The Liberal Party is a genuine grassroots
organization controlled by its members ultimately, and the membership are

(13:30):
shrunk and it is now increasingly dominated by older people
who live on a diet of what you might call
the right wing populist media from places like sky Nears
Australia and you know, a similar right wing you know,

(13:53):
are using that term advisedly, but you know what I mean,
the sort of right wing populist media, and that is
a you know, they they love cultural wars, so you know,
the go global warmings a hoax. You know, they want
to they want to age war on some culture or
issure or another. And that that was a disastrous for

(14:18):
dun absolutely disastrous the Darton to the extent that he
lost his anc because people saw it in Australia. They
saw this as the Liberals heading down the Trumpian path.
And you will, we want to maintain good relations with
the Americans and good relations from and so forth. Australians
do not want a bar of that kind of politics.

(14:42):
You know, we've got a very different system here. We've
got compulsory voting, you know, and you guys know as
much about our country as we do. You know, compulsory voting,
preferential voting. It brings our politics to the center. So
if you want to run off to the extremes and
basically compete the fall enhances and so, you know, fifteen
percent of the vote or something, knock yourself out. But

(15:04):
we're never going to get into government.

Speaker 2 (15:06):
And so what does that mean? Does that mean Albany's
he's good for three, if not four terms?

Speaker 1 (15:10):
Well, I don't you know, he's he's he's certainly I
would think he would nothing certain in politics, But I
would think he'd be very solid favorite to win the
twenty twenty eight election. But who knows after that. I mean,
you know, Anna Domini catches up with all of us.
But so I don't know Anthony's what is He's sort

(15:34):
of early sixty one or two or something, So I
imagine he's got a I would think if I had to,
you know, if I had to give you a prediction,
I would say he's got you know, another another one,
or he's certainly got another one, possibly two elections in him.
But the real problem for the Libs is, you know,

(15:57):
party I've led and party which I'm still a member,
is that you've got these independent teals, you know, who
are central smaller liberals, the sort of with the kind
of program and agenda that people used to associate with
me when I was in politics, they now hold, you know,

(16:18):
was of half a dozen of what had been our
safest seats, male seat of Wentworth when you can't you know,
they say, you can't get a ferry to a Liberal
Party seat in Sydney anymore, whether it's you know Wentworth
in the eastern suburbs or Wringer, you know, the Manly
seat Mckeller to the north of that Bradfield which is
the North Shore. They're all they're all now independent seats

(16:44):
held by teals. These are the safest blue ribbon Liberal seats.
And you know, it's a similar pattern in Earth where
Curtains seld by an independent Julie bishops Old seat and
in Melbourne Manique Ryan as the seat of Keel which
was Josh Frodenberg's. So it's a you know, and if

(17:06):
you think the way to win those seats back is
by running off to the populist right. Well you just started.
You know you've got the wrong memo.

Speaker 2 (17:15):
That brilliant listen, Always a pleasure to catch up. You
have a good one and a good stay in the country.

Speaker 1 (17:20):
No worries.

Speaker 2 (17:21):
For more from the mic Asking Breakfast listen live to
news talks.

Speaker 1 (17:25):
It'd be from six am weekdays, or follow the podcast
on iHeartRadio.
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