November 1, 2024 • 9 mins
The state of play four days away from Election Day.
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
The mainstream stories of the day without the main stream lives.
Speaker 2 (00:05):
The top three takeaways. This is the Brian mud Show.
Speaker 1 (00:11):
The state of play four days away from election day
my top three takeaways on this broad day before election day.
So yeah, the state of play four days away from
election day my top takeaway. You know, there's one thing
that's almost impossible not to do, as we're only four
days away from election day. Think about it. Go ahead
(00:33):
and try it. Go ahead and not think about the election.
I'll count to ten, go, one, two, three, I say, Joel,
just staring at me.
Speaker 3 (00:48):
It's the election, with spurts of oh my god, my
dolphins suck.
Speaker 2 (00:54):
So that's that's what this is for you. It's mostly election.
Speaker 3 (00:57):
It's ninety six percent elect And then I get a
little bit of a of an escape by being miserable
about the dolphins.
Speaker 2 (01:05):
Okay, there you go.
Speaker 3 (01:07):
You've got hope for the election and misery for the dolphins.
But the misery is a good escape. I know that
tex sounds completely crazy.
Speaker 2 (01:14):
And in case you you.
Speaker 1 (01:16):
Got going today and you're like, man, this day is
already off to a rough start.
Speaker 2 (01:20):
I mean, just listen to that. I'm not in that place.
So anyway.
Speaker 1 (01:28):
Yeah, when when you do have stuff you're focused on, sure,
you're going to be focused on that. But it is
true at this point right that anytime you have idle time,
your brain is going to the election, maybe thinking about
things like the polls, like, hey, are there any new
polls that say what I want them to say?
Speaker 2 (01:52):
Uh?
Speaker 1 (01:54):
And you're you're likely often thinking about the actual polls too,
us in the early voting trends. The funny thing, by
the way, and my notes for my takeaways today, I'll
actually tell you exactly what I.
Speaker 2 (02:07):
Had in here.
Speaker 1 (02:09):
I said that is, unless you're Joel, he's probably still
thinking about how much he thinks the Dolphins will lose
to the Bills.
Speaker 2 (02:16):
By that was my actual like note to myself and Joel.
Joel's all over it. So anyway, here we are.
Speaker 1 (02:31):
On one hand, you might think that you, maybe me,
we have a problem that it feels like an obsession
at this point. However, in reality, it probably just means
he care about this country in our communities as much
as you should. Now I hear's some you know, I'll
get away from news and listen and read some of
(02:53):
what else is going on out there, and you'll have
people there like, well, you know, the election is the election,
but not really, not really, why are we free in
this country? Why are our boobs free to be boobs?
Being an engaged and a concerned citizen is inherently American,
(03:15):
given that this country was literally founded by concerned citizens.
These days, even if our president calls us garbage, we're
fortunate to be able to vote out the trash as
opposed to literally having to fight to take out the trash,
because that's what the founders had to do. And just
as anyone who served in the military is able to
tell you, maintaining freedom is anything but free. So being
(03:37):
a concerned citizen who votes is actually the single least
that any of us can be if you don't bother
to vote.
Speaker 2 (03:44):
I mean, I really don't know.
Speaker 1 (03:46):
What what was the Hillary Clinton comment that the irredeemables, right?
I think that as an American citizen, if you do
not take the opportunity to vote when you are able,
that's an irredeemable condition.
Speaker 2 (04:05):
It is.
Speaker 1 (04:05):
These people are like, well, I did my duty, I voted. Sure,
That is the least any American can do. It really is,
and the reason I've started my takeaways on this Friday
before election day with this line of thinking rather than
some really insightful analysis or something which is coming.
Speaker 2 (04:21):
Which is coming.
Speaker 1 (04:24):
Is because the state apply four days from election days,
whatever we make of it. And the data is the
data and everything else. But if you haven't voted, what's
the point. So let's start there. Don't wait until Tuesday.
If you're in the camp where you haven't voted, don't
wait until Tuesday when life and potentially bad weather can
happen and to derail your plans for that day. Go
(04:46):
to the polls today, Go tomorrow, or if you're able
and still need to do so on Sunday. But don't
stop there. Spread the message, get the word out, make
sure that every like minded person you know turns out
to the polls. A just conducted Ugup poll found that
two percent of registered voters do not intend to vote
(05:08):
because they said their vote doesn't matter. And this apparently
is the is the thing that some Flordians believe. Because
I've heard this over the past day. Is the reason
why this was top of mind for me in my
takeaways today. First, even if one believes that the presidential
race in Florida will not be that close, there's value
(05:29):
in the vote.
Speaker 2 (05:30):
This is my second takeaway today.
Speaker 1 (05:33):
A presidential candidate wins the election through the electoral college, Yes,
but the broadest governing mandate comes when what happens, you
also have a popular vote winner when there's that broad mandate.
But aside from a mandate, here are raises that will
(05:54):
shape our state and potentially the future of our country
that may well be decided by just two percent of
the vote. Amendments three and four, the marijuana and abortion amendments.
Every credible poll I've seen over the past month has
shown these amendments right in the neighborhood. Is sixty percent
support the level that's needed to pass for a little
bit less. So, for example, if the current poll shows
(06:16):
sixties support percent support likely voters, you might think that
it'll pass. If, however, additional voters who aren't likely voters
step up and vote, they might not. You might think
that your vote doesn't matter, But a future baby born
(06:36):
in Florida who might have otherwise been subjected to a
late term abortion might disagree. Every vote matters. Two other
elections I believe will be closer than many perceive are
two local congressional races. Our Democrats Lewis Franklin, Jared Moscot's
likely to win reelection. Yes, is the given that they will?
Speaker 2 (06:57):
No.
Speaker 1 (06:58):
Two years ago, Palm Beach County voted for the entire
Republican cabinet for the first time of the county's history.
How many people have that one going into election day?
Voter registration trends have only become more favorable throughout the
area since then. Also, early voting trends were proven to
be especially favorable for Republicans locally once again. If a
Republican wade plays out across South Florida once again on Tuesday,
(07:20):
the incumbent Democrats in those two congressional races could potentially
be swept out with it, but only if everyone's who
inclined to see it happen votes. So about those votes,
They're still trending in Trump's direction. My third takeaway today,
and multiple points throughout the week, I've updated the early
voting trends.
Speaker 2 (07:41):
As we're said to wrap up this week.
Speaker 1 (07:42):
It's the biggest story of the week because garbage doesn't
only float, as we've come to see this week, lots
of garbage early votes. Four years ago, heading into election day,
Democrats held a fourteen point three percent lead and partisan
voter turnout across the country. In the twenty states including
Florida with partisan vote reporting as of today, the Democrat
(08:04):
lead and voter turnout is down to two point three percent. Okay,
so the voting trends are twelve percent more favorably favorable
generally for Republicans compared to twenty twenty. In Florida, Republicans
are performing thirteen point four percent better in turnout with
votescasts prior to election day compared to four years ago.
Among swing states we direct reporting data, Republicans are performing
(08:30):
over ten points better in Arizona, seven points better in
North Carolina, nine points better in Nevada, and sixteen and
a half points better in the most pivotal swing state
in the country of the cycle, in Pennsylvania. That is
a clean sweep in turnout so far and a good
sign for the Maga trash man and his trash men
(08:50):
and women down ballot, and so is this Gallup's latest
findings about who intends to vote on election day. According
to Gallup, among likely partisan voters, Democrats indicated they are
sixteen percent more likely than Republicans to vote before the
election compared to voting non election day. That is exactly
the same margin between the two parties that Gallup sampled
(09:11):
four years ago. So what that means is that their
remains a reasona believe that Republicans will once again hold
the advantage in election day turnout for Democrats as well.
According to Emerson's latest survey, Trump has a three point
lead with the Independence nationally, so aside from turnout, how
independence break is the major wildcard this cycle. That too,
(09:32):
was seem to be good news for Team Trump and
the GOP generally. If the Republicans can hold a turnout
lead in critical swing states heading into election day and
when turnout on election day, let's shoot, you don't need
any analysis from me to know what's likely to be
in those states. And in that case, we can take
(09:53):
a look at those states the election itself
The mainstream stories of the day without the main stream lives.
Speaker 2 (00:05):
The top three takeaways. This is the Brian mud Show.
Speaker 1 (00:11):
The state of play four days away from election day
my top three takeaways on this broad day before election day.
So yeah, the state of play four days away from
election day my top takeaway. You know, there's one thing
that's almost impossible not to do, as we're only four
days away from election day. Think about it. Go ahead
(00:33):
and try it. Go ahead and not think about the election.
I'll count to ten, go, one, two, three, I say, Joel,
just staring at me.
Speaker 3 (00:48):
It's the election, with spurts of oh my god, my
dolphins suck.
Speaker 2 (00:54):
So that's that's what this is for you. It's mostly election.
Speaker 3 (00:57):
It's ninety six percent elect And then I get a
little bit of a of an escape by being miserable
about the dolphins.
Speaker 2 (01:05):
Okay, there you go.
Speaker 3 (01:07):
You've got hope for the election and misery for the dolphins.
But the misery is a good escape. I know that
tex sounds completely crazy.
Speaker 2 (01:14):
And in case you you.
Speaker 1 (01:16):
Got going today and you're like, man, this day is
already off to a rough start.
Speaker 2 (01:20):
I mean, just listen to that. I'm not in that place.
So anyway.
Speaker 1 (01:28):
Yeah, when when you do have stuff you're focused on, sure,
you're going to be focused on that. But it is
true at this point right that anytime you have idle time,
your brain is going to the election, maybe thinking about
things like the polls, like, hey, are there any new
polls that say what I want them to say?
Speaker 2 (01:52):
Uh?
Speaker 1 (01:54):
And you're you're likely often thinking about the actual polls too,
us in the early voting trends. The funny thing, by
the way, and my notes for my takeaways today, I'll
actually tell you exactly what I.
Speaker 2 (02:07):
Had in here.
Speaker 1 (02:09):
I said that is, unless you're Joel, he's probably still
thinking about how much he thinks the Dolphins will lose
to the Bills.
Speaker 2 (02:16):
By that was my actual like note to myself and Joel.
Joel's all over it. So anyway, here we are.
Speaker 1 (02:31):
On one hand, you might think that you, maybe me,
we have a problem that it feels like an obsession
at this point. However, in reality, it probably just means
he care about this country in our communities as much
as you should. Now I hear's some you know, I'll
get away from news and listen and read some of
(02:53):
what else is going on out there, and you'll have
people there like, well, you know, the election is the election,
but not really, not really, why are we free in
this country? Why are our boobs free to be boobs?
Being an engaged and a concerned citizen is inherently American,
(03:15):
given that this country was literally founded by concerned citizens.
These days, even if our president calls us garbage, we're
fortunate to be able to vote out the trash as
opposed to literally having to fight to take out the trash,
because that's what the founders had to do. And just
as anyone who served in the military is able to
tell you, maintaining freedom is anything but free. So being
(03:37):
a concerned citizen who votes is actually the single least
that any of us can be if you don't bother
to vote.
Speaker 2 (03:44):
I mean, I really don't know.
Speaker 1 (03:46):
What what was the Hillary Clinton comment that the irredeemables, right?
I think that as an American citizen, if you do
not take the opportunity to vote when you are able,
that's an irredeemable condition.
Speaker 2 (04:05):
It is.
Speaker 1 (04:05):
These people are like, well, I did my duty, I voted. Sure,
That is the least any American can do. It really is,
and the reason I've started my takeaways on this Friday
before election day with this line of thinking rather than
some really insightful analysis or something which is coming.
Speaker 2 (04:21):
Which is coming.
Speaker 1 (04:24):
Is because the state apply four days from election days,
whatever we make of it. And the data is the
data and everything else. But if you haven't voted, what's
the point. So let's start there. Don't wait until Tuesday.
If you're in the camp where you haven't voted, don't
wait until Tuesday when life and potentially bad weather can
happen and to derail your plans for that day. Go
(04:46):
to the polls today, Go tomorrow, or if you're able
and still need to do so on Sunday. But don't
stop there. Spread the message, get the word out, make
sure that every like minded person you know turns out
to the polls. A just conducted Ugup poll found that
two percent of registered voters do not intend to vote
(05:08):
because they said their vote doesn't matter. And this apparently
is the is the thing that some Flordians believe. Because
I've heard this over the past day. Is the reason
why this was top of mind for me in my
takeaways today. First, even if one believes that the presidential
race in Florida will not be that close, there's value
(05:29):
in the vote.
Speaker 2 (05:30):
This is my second takeaway today.
Speaker 1 (05:33):
A presidential candidate wins the election through the electoral college, Yes,
but the broadest governing mandate comes when what happens, you
also have a popular vote winner when there's that broad mandate.
But aside from a mandate, here are raises that will
(05:54):
shape our state and potentially the future of our country
that may well be decided by just two percent of
the vote. Amendments three and four, the marijuana and abortion amendments.
Every credible poll I've seen over the past month has
shown these amendments right in the neighborhood. Is sixty percent
support the level that's needed to pass for a little
bit less. So, for example, if the current poll shows
(06:16):
sixties support percent support likely voters, you might think that
it'll pass. If, however, additional voters who aren't likely voters
step up and vote, they might not. You might think
that your vote doesn't matter, But a future baby born
(06:36):
in Florida who might have otherwise been subjected to a
late term abortion might disagree. Every vote matters. Two other
elections I believe will be closer than many perceive are
two local congressional races. Our Democrats Lewis Franklin, Jared Moscot's
likely to win reelection. Yes, is the given that they will?
Speaker 2 (06:57):
No.
Speaker 1 (06:58):
Two years ago, Palm Beach County voted for the entire
Republican cabinet for the first time of the county's history.
How many people have that one going into election day?
Voter registration trends have only become more favorable throughout the
area since then. Also, early voting trends were proven to
be especially favorable for Republicans locally once again. If a
Republican wade plays out across South Florida once again on Tuesday,
(07:20):
the incumbent Democrats in those two congressional races could potentially
be swept out with it, but only if everyone's who
inclined to see it happen votes. So about those votes,
They're still trending in Trump's direction. My third takeaway today,
and multiple points throughout the week, I've updated the early
voting trends.
Speaker 2 (07:41):
As we're said to wrap up this week.
Speaker 1 (07:42):
It's the biggest story of the week because garbage doesn't
only float, as we've come to see this week, lots
of garbage early votes. Four years ago, heading into election day,
Democrats held a fourteen point three percent lead and partisan
voter turnout across the country. In the twenty states including
Florida with partisan vote reporting as of today, the Democrat
(08:04):
lead and voter turnout is down to two point three percent. Okay,
so the voting trends are twelve percent more favorably favorable
generally for Republicans compared to twenty twenty. In Florida, Republicans
are performing thirteen point four percent better in turnout with
votescasts prior to election day compared to four years ago.
Among swing states we direct reporting data, Republicans are performing
(08:30):
over ten points better in Arizona, seven points better in
North Carolina, nine points better in Nevada, and sixteen and
a half points better in the most pivotal swing state
in the country of the cycle, in Pennsylvania. That is
a clean sweep in turnout so far and a good
sign for the Maga trash man and his trash men
(08:50):
and women down ballot, and so is this Gallup's latest
findings about who intends to vote on election day. According
to Gallup, among likely partisan voters, Democrats indicated they are
sixteen percent more likely than Republicans to vote before the
election compared to voting non election day. That is exactly
the same margin between the two parties that Gallup sampled
(09:11):
four years ago. So what that means is that their
remains a reasona believe that Republicans will once again hold
the advantage in election day turnout for Democrats as well.
According to Emerson's latest survey, Trump has a three point
lead with the Independence nationally, so aside from turnout, how
independence break is the major wildcard this cycle. That too,
(09:32):
was seem to be good news for Team Trump and
the GOP generally. If the Republicans can hold a turnout
lead in critical swing states heading into election day and
when turnout on election day, let's shoot, you don't need
any analysis from me to know what's likely to be
in those states. And in that case, we can take
(09:53):
a look at those states the election itself
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