How Florida Was Won

South Florida demographically represents the future of our state, but also in many ways the country.

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:01):
There are two sides to every story and one side
to facts. This is the Brian Mudd Show. Yeah, let's
talk about how Florida was won. You. Shortly after the
two thousand and eight presidential election, when Barack Obama successfully
flipped Florida blue, I coined a phrase, and that was
for Republicans to win Florida, they needed to lose well
in South Florida. And what that most specifically meant was

(00:25):
that Republicans needed to make the case for their agenda
in South Florida's Blue Wall, the counties of Paul Beach,
Brower to Miami Dade. It meant Republican candidates needed to
make a genuine effort to take a genuine interest in
South Floridians to earn their votes. Starting with Rick Scott's
gubedatorial campaign, we began to see that take place, and

(00:47):
by the twenty twenty two midterms, we saw that it
was not only possible for Republicans to lose well in
South Florida's blue counties, but to win them at least
Miami Dade and Palm Beach anyway, and as we're now
a week removed from the election, here are a few
election takeaways from our state. One, there are now a

(01:09):
record number of Republicans top to bottom in Florida. So again,
you know, I've talked over the past couple of years
about the twenty twenty two midterms, so many, even Republicans
in this state, thought that had to be as good
as it would get for the party. That had to
be the high water mark, because it was the best
ever election cycle for Republicans in the state. And I

(01:32):
kept making the case as I was taking the data
rolling in month by month voter registration information, like but no, actually,
there's no reason it had to be the high water mark,
And now we see it was not. They are now
going to be more elected Republicans top to bottom in
the state of Florida than at any other time. Two,
the twenty twenty two red wave was not an outlier, or,

(01:55):
as I just had mentioned, the high water mark for Republicans.
South Florida's blue wall no longer exists. Republicans already held
a super majority in the state legislature, but managed to
add to that majority in this cycle. That happened in
large part due to Republicans winning essentially all swing districts

(02:16):
across the state, including many and formerly blue counties. And
on that note, here are the counties with Democrat voter
registration majorities that voted for DeSantis for governor in twenty
twenty two and for Trump for president this year. Okay,
so this means top of the ticket went read each

(02:37):
of the past two elections. Duvall which is Jacksonville, Hillsboro
which is Tampa, Miami Dade, and Osciola Aciola borders Orange
County Orlando, but it also has the largest Puerto Rican
population of any county in the country. And as for
South Florida's blue wall, here's the performance by Tromp over

(02:59):
each of his three presidential elections. You're ready for this.
This is going to be This really paints the picture.
In twenty sixteen, Trump lost Broward by thirty five points.
In twenty twenty, Trump lost Broward by thirty Okay, so
he did five points better there. Last week, Trump lost
Broward by seventeen. Okay, thirty five thirty seventeen. Here goes

(03:27):
Palm Beach County. Palm Beach County. In twenty sixteen, Trump
lost it by fifteen. Twenty twenty, he lost it by thirteen.
Last week, he lost it by less than one point
fifteen thirteen one. You're ready for Miami Dade. I mean,
this is like the holy crap kind of twenty sixteen.

(03:51):
Trump lost aid by thirty. Twenty twenty, he lost it
by seven week. He won it by eleven negative thirty
negative seven positive eleven. You're ready for the blue wall.

(04:12):
Change over time and Trump's three presidential elections, Palm Beach
County Trump plus fourteen from where he started, Broward Trump
plus eighteen from where he started, Miami Dade Trump plus
forty one. And be mindful as well, we're not talking

(04:35):
about a percentage off of a small sample size. Data
is the largest county in the state, Broward is the
second most populous, and Palm Beach County technically in real
time is just barely number four, but it was number
three if you average out this exercise. So you're talking
about the three largest counties within this state. Fourteen eighteen
and forty one points better today than twenty sixteen for Trump.

(04:59):
So over the past second we've seen Florida's three largest
counties shift the most politically. No longer do Republicans need
to lose well in South Florida in order to win
the state. Republicans are now able to win South Florida,
which is why Florida is now a solidly red state
and it's a remarkable political transformation has taken place and
that continues to take place due to the continued efforts

(05:21):
of Republican politicians to engage, participate, and compete at all
levels of government, from President Trump on down