Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
New data from DOMAIN has found that new supply on
the Darwin property market fell over the month of April
to the second lowest on record. Now, days on the
market for houses fell for a second successive month as well,
while days on the market for units fell for a
third month in a row. Now joining me on the
(00:20):
line to tell us more is Domain's chief of Research
and Economics, doctor Nicola Powell. Good morning to you, Nikola.
Speaker 2 (00:29):
And very good morning.
Speaker 1 (00:30):
Now tell me we'll talk me through the numbers when
it comes to new supply on the Darwin property market.
Speaker 2 (00:37):
Yeah, when we look at new listings over April, they
did four six percent over the month compared to March.
So sorry, they failed twenty four percent, not six percent,
twenty four percent. It was total supply that fell six percent,
but new supply fell twenty seven percent year on year. Now,
we expected that in April because April, obviously we had
back to back long weekends. We also had an election
(00:58):
that I think does distract by and sellers. But I
think overall, what we're seeing even when you look at
total supply, total supplies also down and those were the
figures that I led with that total suppliers fell fell
six percent over the month of down thirty one percent
year on year. So I think while new listings is tightening,
overall supply is also tightening. So I think what we're
(01:19):
starting to see is a little bit more by a
competition coming out.
Speaker 1 (01:23):
So what does it like? So what does that really mean?
I suppose if you're looking to buy a house.
Speaker 2 (01:29):
So it is interesting when you weave that in for pricing.
When we look at house prices across Starwin, they did
increase over the most recent quarter. And what we've got
is house prices now at the highest point that we've
seen since twenty fifteen, so they're just under six hundred
and sixty thousand dollars. I think what it was starting
to see is supply is starting to shrink, and what
(01:53):
that means is it's increasing by a competition a little
bit and that's coming out with price growth. And this
is what we're seeing across some of our other capital
cities now. I think, particularly Laid with a rate cart
that's given by a little bit more confidence and I
think with the expectation that rates are going to be
reduced and we're expecting another four this year, I think
(02:14):
that is enough to provide a bit more confidence for buyers.
Speaker 1 (02:18):
And so Nikolas, does that then mean as well, you
know when a house does go on the market, how
long is it staying on the market? Is it being
picked up faster?
Speaker 2 (02:28):
We have seen homes are now transacting quicker than they were.
When you look at days on market, it has declined
over the month for houses and for units. It's slightly
different depending upon the area. So Darwin City, for example,
the average time on market is one hundred and sixty
(02:49):
seven days for our house, but it is a bit diverse,
so the suburbs out in the suburbs one hundred and
thirty two days are slightly quicker. So it is different
that we're starting to see that days on market reduced.
Speaker 1 (03:01):
Yeah, right, And when it comes to units, what are
we sort of seeing when it comes to our unit sales?
Speaker 2 (03:07):
So when we look at units, they've also fallen. I
mean you look on days on market, it's now the
lowest that we've seen in over and over a year.
And when we look at unit prices, we've seen them
kind of flatline. They reduce slightly over the most recent quarter,
but unit prices are fairly steady over the quarter, but
(03:27):
they have declined compared to this time last year, but
only by about four percent, so we're not calling really
big falls in unit prices. And I think when you
look at Darwin, the preferences houses, they make up the
larger pool of housing stock and I think we see
that coming out in price growth as well.
Speaker 1 (03:47):
And how do we compare to other states and other
locations when you look at you know, the number of
days on market and also look at I guess you
know how like how how many you know, how many
copies we've gone on the market.
Speaker 2 (04:02):
So it is it is different when you look at
overall days on market for houses in Darwin, so the
Greater Darwin region it's on average one hundred and forty
nine days at the moment that as we discussed as
fallen month or months, but it is high when you
compare it to other capital cities. So some of our
(04:23):
quicker property markets for transactions is actually being led by Perth.
So you know Western Australia thirty five days the average
time a house spends on the market across Greater Perth,
So that's that capital city figure. Darwin always tends to
have slightly higher days on market relative to other capital
(04:44):
cities and when you compare it to say earlier in
the year. You know, back in February the average days
on market in Darwin was one hundred and eighty days,
so it has dropped by about thirty days over the
recent months.
Speaker 1 (04:59):
What about when you look look at vacancy rights, what's
the lightest start to show when it comes to those.
Speaker 2 (05:04):
Rates, So vacancy rates, So this looks obviously the balance
between rental supply and demand and the vacancy rate gives
a really good indication of whether it's a LANLDS market
or whether it's a tenants market. And that vacancy rate
in Darwin is sitting at zero point five percent. So
what that tells us it is still a landlolds market
in Darwin. For a balanced rental market, we do like
(05:26):
that vacancy rate to be sitting between two and three percent,
So ato point five percent, that is very low and
that's one of the lowest that we've seen for Darwin
in terms of its vacancy rate. What that tells us
for tenants out there it is still competitive. I think
across the rental space. We know Darwin's rental market and
overall population dynamics are quite transient so there is a
(05:49):
lot of flows and flows from the Northern territory to
other states and territories, but also in as well, and
that does place demand on the rental space, but it
is low and that does mean that there is a
bit more competition I think out there for tenants.
Speaker 1 (06:03):
I have got a listener question somebody messaging through saying,
what's the total listings of houses available for Darwin?
Speaker 2 (06:12):
Not sure if you don't have the Yeah, don't have
the actual figure the total listings. But when we have
a look at what we've seen in terms of it changing,
it is down year on year by thirty one percent
and down over the months by six percent.
Speaker 1 (06:27):
Yeah, right, So not a huge amount of stock I
suppose on the market compared to other years.
Speaker 2 (06:34):
We have seen it shrink, and I think that's it's
not necessarily the total figure the number that is interesting.
What's more interesting is what we're seeing in terms of
the changes, and particularly those trend changes. We're seeing consistent
declines in the overall stock or whether it's actually rising.
And one of those things Sport for Darwin is that
(06:55):
we have started to see it the decline.
Speaker 1 (06:57):
Yeah, right, Nikola. When you look predictions for the coming quarter.
Do you think that we're going to sort of stay
the same or what do you think we might say?
Speaker 2 (07:08):
Look, we do obviously have changing economic conditions, and what
I mean by that is, you know, we've seen rates
being reduced once, we're expecting rates to be reduced again
in May, and we're expecting more rate cuts to come
out this year. When you've see rate cuts coming through,
it does tend to play out positively for the housing market.
(07:31):
And what that means is we tend to see greater
rates of price growth and greater levels of housing market
turnover because obviously a rate reduction improves borring power and
can be the driver to make people come to market.
I think, you know, when you compare it to recent
years where we've seen you rate hikes and what that
has done for mortgage affordability, I think the fact that
(07:53):
we're now in a rate loosening cycle, I think what
we're likely to see is that is going to bring
more people to market.
Speaker 1 (08:00):
Domain Chief of Research and Economics, Doctor Nicola Powell. It's
always good to catch up with you. Really appreciate your
time this morning. Thank you, thank you, Thanks so much,
New data from DOMAIN has found that new supply on
the Darwin property market fell over the month of April
to the second lowest on record. Now, days on the
market for houses fell for a second successive month as well,
while days on the market for units fell for a
third month in a row. Now joining me on the
(00:20):
line to tell us more is Domain's chief of Research
and Economics, doctor Nicola Powell. Good morning to you, Nikola.
Speaker 2 (00:29):
And very good morning.
Speaker 1 (00:30):
Now tell me we'll talk me through the numbers when
it comes to new supply on the Darwin property market.
Speaker 2 (00:37):
Yeah, when we look at new listings over April, they
did four six percent over the month compared to March.
So sorry, they failed twenty four percent, not six percent,
twenty four percent. It was total supply that fell six percent,
but new supply fell twenty seven percent year on year. Now,
we expected that in April because April, obviously we had
back to back long weekends. We also had an election
(00:58):
that I think does distract by and sellers. But I
think overall, what we're seeing even when you look at
total supply, total supplies also down and those were the
figures that I led with that total suppliers fell fell
six percent over the month of down thirty one percent
year on year. So I think while new listings is tightening,
overall supply is also tightening. So I think what we're
(01:19):
starting to see is a little bit more by a
competition coming out.
Speaker 1 (01:23):
So what does it like? So what does that really mean?
I suppose if you're looking to buy a house.
Speaker 2 (01:29):
So it is interesting when you weave that in for pricing.
When we look at house prices across Starwin, they did
increase over the most recent quarter. And what we've got
is house prices now at the highest point that we've
seen since twenty fifteen, so they're just under six hundred
and sixty thousand dollars. I think what it was starting
to see is supply is starting to shrink, and what
(01:53):
that means is it's increasing by a competition a little
bit and that's coming out with price growth. And this
is what we're seeing across some of our other capital
cities now. I think, particularly Laid with a rate cart
that's given by a little bit more confidence and I
think with the expectation that rates are going to be
reduced and we're expecting another four this year, I think
(02:14):
that is enough to provide a bit more confidence for buyers.
Speaker 1 (02:18):
And so Nikolas, does that then mean as well, you
know when a house does go on the market, how
long is it staying on the market? Is it being
picked up faster?
Speaker 2 (02:28):
We have seen homes are now transacting quicker than they were.
When you look at days on market, it has declined
over the month for houses and for units. It's slightly
different depending upon the area. So Darwin City, for example,
the average time on market is one hundred and sixty
(02:49):
seven days for our house, but it is a bit diverse,
so the suburbs out in the suburbs one hundred and
thirty two days are slightly quicker. So it is different
that we're starting to see that days on market reduced.
Speaker 1 (03:01):
Yeah, right, And when it comes to units, what are
we sort of seeing when it comes to our unit sales?
Speaker 2 (03:07):
So when we look at units, they've also fallen. I
mean you look on days on market, it's now the
lowest that we've seen in over and over a year.
And when we look at unit prices, we've seen them
kind of flatline. They reduce slightly over the most recent quarter,
but unit prices are fairly steady over the quarter, but
(03:27):
they have declined compared to this time last year, but
only by about four percent, so we're not calling really
big falls in unit prices. And I think when you
look at Darwin, the preferences houses, they make up the
larger pool of housing stock and I think we see
that coming out in price growth as well.
Speaker 1 (03:47):
And how do we compare to other states and other
locations when you look at you know, the number of
days on market and also look at I guess you
know how like how how many you know, how many
copies we've gone on the market.
Speaker 2 (04:02):
So it is it is different when you look at
overall days on market for houses in Darwin, so the
Greater Darwin region it's on average one hundred and forty
nine days at the moment that as we discussed as
fallen month or months, but it is high when you
compare it to other capital cities. So some of our
(04:23):
quicker property markets for transactions is actually being led by Perth.
So you know Western Australia thirty five days the average
time a house spends on the market across Greater Perth,
So that's that capital city figure. Darwin always tends to
have slightly higher days on market relative to other capital
(04:44):
cities and when you compare it to say earlier in
the year. You know, back in February the average days
on market in Darwin was one hundred and eighty days,
so it has dropped by about thirty days over the
recent months.
Speaker 1 (04:59):
What about when you look look at vacancy rights, what's
the lightest start to show when it comes to those.
Speaker 2 (05:04):
Rates, So vacancy rates, So this looks obviously the balance
between rental supply and demand and the vacancy rate gives
a really good indication of whether it's a LANLDS market
or whether it's a tenants market. And that vacancy rate
in Darwin is sitting at zero point five percent. So
what that tells us it is still a landlolds market
in Darwin. For a balanced rental market, we do like
(05:26):
that vacancy rate to be sitting between two and three percent,
So ato point five percent, that is very low and
that's one of the lowest that we've seen for Darwin
in terms of its vacancy rate. What that tells us
for tenants out there it is still competitive. I think
across the rental space. We know Darwin's rental market and
overall population dynamics are quite transient so there is a
(05:49):
lot of flows and flows from the Northern territory to
other states and territories, but also in as well, and
that does place demand on the rental space, but it
is low and that does mean that there is a
bit more competition I think out there for tenants.
Speaker 1 (06:03):
I have got a listener question somebody messaging through saying,
what's the total listings of houses available for Darwin?
Speaker 2 (06:12):
Not sure if you don't have the Yeah, don't have
the actual figure the total listings. But when we have
a look at what we've seen in terms of it changing,
it is down year on year by thirty one percent
and down over the months by six percent.
Speaker 1 (06:27):
Yeah, right, So not a huge amount of stock I
suppose on the market compared to other years.
Speaker 2 (06:34):
We have seen it shrink, and I think that's it's
not necessarily the total figure the number that is interesting.
What's more interesting is what we're seeing in terms of
the changes, and particularly those trend changes. We're seeing consistent
declines in the overall stock or whether it's actually rising.
And one of those things Sport for Darwin is that
(06:55):
we have started to see it the decline.
Speaker 1 (06:57):
Yeah, right, Nikola. When you look predictions for the coming quarter.
Do you think that we're going to sort of stay
the same or what do you think we might say?
Speaker 2 (07:08):
Look, we do obviously have changing economic conditions, and what
I mean by that is, you know, we've seen rates
being reduced once, we're expecting rates to be reduced again
in May, and we're expecting more rate cuts to come
out this year. When you've see rate cuts coming through,
it does tend to play out positively for the housing market.
(07:31):
And what that means is we tend to see greater
rates of price growth and greater levels of housing market
turnover because obviously a rate reduction improves borring power and
can be the driver to make people come to market.
I think, you know, when you compare it to recent
years where we've seen you rate hikes and what that
has done for mortgage affordability, I think the fact that
(07:53):
we're now in a rate loosening cycle, I think what
we're likely to see is that is going to bring
more people to market.
Speaker 1 (08:00):
Domain Chief of Research and Economics, Doctor Nicola Powell. It's
always good to catch up with you. Really appreciate your
time this morning. Thank you, thank you, Thanks so much,
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