Weather Matters Meteorologist Karl Ljinders discusses strengthening tropical low of Top End coast

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Joining us live on the line. It's a voice that
you'll recognize. He used to catch up with us each
week to talk weather. It's Karl, Linda's meteorologist with Weather Matters.

Speaker 2 (00:11):
Good morning Carl, Katie, long time i speak. How are you?

Speaker 1 (00:16):
Oh? I am wonderful. It's great to have you on
the show. And you're in Darwin at the moment. Did
you bring are you bringing the cyclone with you? Carl?

Speaker 2 (00:24):
Oh? Look, you know what, Katie, I always aim to please,
and yes, I'm bringing some cooler weather. It's nice as
some cooler weather for the build up. It's been great
the last couple of days. But yes, it's a getting
a bit hairy now in the forecast. We have got
a pretty substantial system. We're lurking off the TeV Islands
at the moment.

Speaker 1 (00:39):
Yeah, so talk us through what the go is, what's
you know, where is it and what's the modeling showing.

Speaker 2 (00:46):
Okay, So we've got this tropical low that's currently situated
just to the north of the TeV Island. It's those
are keen whether radar watches, you can see the circulation
just moving away from the Tee Island at the moment.
A lot of high cloud across Darwin. It's from that system.
Now the system is expected to take a bit of
east to northeasterly track, so it'll pull out of the
cloud and nicely conditions that are currently over the dahl
And region away tomorrow through Thursday. The system is expected

(01:08):
to move into a more favorable environment for development into
a tropical cyclone by the end of the week. So
while we start to clear out here in the Darwen
region and broadly across the northern territory for a couple
of days with more sunshine, things are starting to shake
and bake by the end of the week, and I
do think we'll have a cyclone named by the time
we get to the end of the week. Now, there
is a warning graphic that has been issued by the Bureau,

(01:31):
and it's the first of many that will start to
come through this week. Now, many people may start to
see that southward turn that starts to take place later
this week and think, well, it's not really coming towards Darwin.
It's looking like it's going towards man and Greta. But
beyond that graphic there is the chance we start to
see that system turning back towards Darwin this Saturday and
Sunday into Monday, and so that's the time that we'll

(01:53):
start to see the weather turning across the region.

Speaker 1 (01:56):
Yeah right, well, Carl, that all makes a lot more
sense because I was thinking to myself, well, how can
that's going to clear up for the next couple of
days as I was looking at the forecast. That's because
the cyclone is going to be brewing out in the ocean.

Speaker 2 (02:07):
Correct, it paus all the weather to its center, so
pauls all the energy away and the the little bit
of a dry surge's comes through the Captain region overnight
as well, that'll be pulled up over the northern top end,
and so we'll start to see the sky is clearing
up in limited showers and stores but from Friday afternoon
at this stage, and the modeling and this is just modeling,
and theres a lot that can change between now and then,
but the rain and shower should start to increase across

(02:28):
the Darwen region related to the tropical system from Friday,
increasing further Saturday. Peak of the wild weather at the
moment is expected somewhere through the top end Saturday night
through Sunday night and then hearing southwest of the top
end through Monday. That's at the moment, but that could
easily change between now and by the time it gets
to the end of the week.

Speaker 1 (02:48):
Yeah, and Carl, I mean at this point, I'm just
looking after you'd said that they've now issued that cyclone
forecast track map. I'm just having a look at it,
and it's you know, at ten am or No. Twenty one.
It's like you said, it's looking like it's sort of
going towards Matten Greta at a cat too. But we
don't really know what it's going to do at that point.

(03:09):
We don't really know how strong that system could potentially get.

Speaker 2 (03:13):
Either, do we. That's correct, And this is a fairly
decent forecast from the Bureau, and that they've coup a
lot of flack a lot of the time, and I
think this is the best thing they can do at
the moment is split the difference in all the solutions
that are on the board. Now I've posted something to
my Facebook page. Whether it matters with just have a
look at that, guys, if you want to have a
look at all the different options there are at the
moment on the table in terms of what the computer

(03:34):
models are saying. But all the Bureau has done, they've
drawn the middle point of all those solutions, and that
takes a system down towards that subtly tracked towards the
man in Greeda. It does not mean it's going to
hit man in Greta. It does not mean the system
is going to hit darm And necessarily it could go
further east, it could fizzle out. We don't know what's
going to happen, but the key messaging is that we
need to prepare. Now. Now is cyclone season, so this

(03:57):
is again it could be the boy that quiet Wolfan.
Nothing happened, But you know what, we had a category
two system with markers and that caused a lot of
disruption with a category two system that came through as
Carlos fifteen years ago, my namesake, and dropped one point
two meters nty six hours. And remember that's right.

Speaker 1 (04:20):
Again, most certainly can Hey, I'm looking at at what
you've just spoken about it, what you'd posted on whether
on your Weather Matter's Facebook page, and yeah, I can
see those different models as well, and you know the
way that it could go. And you just I suppose
we don't know, do we until we've sort of gotten
through the next couple of days.

Speaker 2 (04:40):
No, that's right. So my key focus as a weeking
meteorologist doing what I do daily for the clients across
across the country, in particularly in the northern tropics this
time of year is when we get these cyclones and
he's developing loads. Now we've got a low level circulation,
we can see it in real time. Now the track
is how far east does this system go and then
when does it start to turn to the south. That

(05:00):
is really important in terms of narrowing the forecast impacts
across the top end. At this stage, you'd be living
anywhere from say Elka Island all the way around the
Bend to the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf on the wa border.
Just pay attention in extending land to about Jabaru, probably
down through the Darwen Metro right down through the Adelaide
River and down to what the whole region needs to

(05:21):
be watching very closely.

Speaker 1 (05:22):
Yeah, and making sure that we're prepared. Hey, Carl, in
terms of like we're experiencing. You know, what we've seen
over the last couple of days, in terms of the
amount of rain we've seen. I mean, it's been a
little bit unseasoned, a seasonal for us comparatively, you know
to last year, I guess for example, but some of
the you know, the more senior territory and saying, oh,

(05:42):
this is what it used to be like in the
build up.

Speaker 2 (05:46):
Well, yes, yeah, well exactly, I've got much more tenure
than I do. So I don't want to I don't
want to make them very angry at mel've just arrived,
but I do. I do think the last the last
fifteen years have been pretty hot. This year has been
a pretty decent build up in terms of the rainfall.
That's everage is not so much. It's definitely been a
wetter November, and if the cyclone does take a trap

(06:06):
over the Darwin region, well probably will end up breaking
the all time record for the wettest November on record.
We're not far away from that at the moment for
the Darwen Yeah, not far away at all. I think
we're sitting about two hundred and fifty millimeters now. The
record I think at the top of my head is
about three fifty seven back in nineteen seventy six. Yeah,
I think it was, so don't quite me on that.

(06:26):
But if we do get that heavy rainfall from the
tropical system of the weekend, we could end up breaking
that record. So it has been a lot wetter and cooler,
but the next couple of days kd back to.

Speaker 1 (06:35):
Til Yeah warm, not so warm. So the next fore
you diys tell, and I mean, depending on which track
it takes, do you think we'll get do you think
we'll see quite a bit of rain regardless or too
early to tell?

Speaker 2 (06:48):
Look, it is too early to tell, but my gut
tells me looking at the weather conditions across the top
end of the moment and the wave that the system's
orientating itself north of the teev Island, and the slow movement,
I think it's a greater than fifty percent chance Ada
will have some impacts this weekend. So it's a fairly
substantial risk this far outside. I think everybody just needs
to pay attention, don't panic, be alert but not alarmed,

(07:10):
and just be prepared. We lot time.

Speaker 1 (07:12):
Yeah, good advice. Well, Carl Linders, We'll probably catch up
with you again throughout the week.

Speaker 2 (07:17):
I Regon