Mark Lister: Craigs Investment Partners Director on the new NZX trading week post tariffs

The stock market has seen the biggest daily fall since the Covid-19 period, as a result of Donald Trump's tariffs announced last week. 

Beijing responded with its own retaliatory tariffs, which caused the S&P 500 to fall another 6%. 

Craigs Investment Partners Director Mark Lister says it's a historic fall. 

"It's pretty rare for things to fall as much as that in a two-day period." 

Lister talks to Mike Hosking about where New Zealand sits in the aftermath. 

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Well, they were numbers to take your breath away, weren't they.
The US market our times Saturday fell to pieces losses
you only see in seismic events. The trouble with time
zones of courses. Their Saturday or our Saturday is there Friday,
which means that now we have to do something this
morning and watch and wait. Craig's Investment Partners Director Market
listens with US Mark Morning.

Speaker 2 (00:18):
Good morning, mate.

Speaker 1 (00:19):
So you've been around a while. Put it into context.
How sort of gob smacked were you?

Speaker 2 (00:25):
Well, it was pretty interesting to wake up on Saturday
and see that the market had fallen another six percent
on the Friday session in the US, because we obviously
had that really rough Thursday that was actually the biggest
daily fall since the COVID period. That came in the
wake of the Liberation Day announcements, and then on Friday,
I think there was an expectation you might see a

(00:46):
more stable session, but then Beijing responded with its own
retaliatory tariffs, so then you saw the S and P
five hundred and fall another six percent. So in those
two days down ten and a half percent. I went
back and looked through the last eighty odd years of data.
The only other times that's happened is March twenty twenty,
it happened once, then once in two thousand and eight,

(01:08):
right in the middle of the GFC, and then in
October nineteen eighty seven obviously Black Monday. So it's pretty
rare for things to fall as much as that in
a two day period.

Speaker 1 (01:18):
What would you expect today, given we, all things considered,
came out last week pretty well.

Speaker 2 (01:23):
We came out very well. The New Zealand market was
down just half a percent last week, the US down
nine percent, Europe down eight and a half percent, the
UK down seven percent. That's for the week. We were
just down half percent, so we held up very well.
We will play some catch up this morning because that
nervousness that hit the US market on Friday will filter
through to us, but I think we will still hold

(01:46):
up better. You know, we're not in the firing line.
We don't have those sort of tariffs impacting us directly.
We don't have all of those tech stocks, which is
really where the weakness is coming from. So our safer,
more steadier market I think will it'll fall, but it
might hold up a little bit better than some of
those international ones.

Speaker 1 (02:06):
You mentioned China, what did the EU come out tonight ish?
Well this week and go where in two with retaliatory.

Speaker 2 (02:14):
Well, that's when things get worse, and that's when some
of this talk of a potential global recession or a
US recession, that's when you get that escalation. So right now,
I think things are quite finely balanced. If you see
if you see negotiations happening behind the scenes, and there
was talk of negotiations. Apparently Vietnam, which was one of
the hardest hits by tariffs, Vietnam is in negotiations with

(02:38):
the US, and so you might see some positive news there.
But if you see other countries take the action that
China has, then it just becomes tip for tat escalation
and that's where things get uglier. So I think the
market for the next little while will be very very
sensitive to any comment or news flow about whether you're
getting more retaliatory action or whether you're seeing some of

(03:01):
these politicians come to these censors and try and do deals.

Speaker 1 (03:05):
Appreciate your expertise as always, Michael. Listen to Craig's Investment
Partners

Speaker 2 (03:08):
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