Francesca Rudkin: The Government will be hoping departure figures are as bad as they get

In April last year, it was announced New Zealanders living in Australia were suddenly afforded similar rights to Australians who live in New Zealand when it comes to having a pathway to citizenship.

The change meant that from 1 July 2023, New Zealanders who have lived in Australia for four years on temporary or special category visas and met the standard Australian citizenship criteria could apply for citizenship.

So Kiwis who've been living in Australia since 2001 could apply directly for citizenship without gaining permanent residency first. Kiwi children born in Australia will become citizens at birth rather than waiting til they turn 10.

It was a game changer for Kiwis already living in Australia. But the question of whether it would contribute to a brain drain, like the one we saw in 2011 and 2012 was yet to be seen.

Today Stats NZ released their provisional data for annual migration figures for the year ending in August. Migrant arrivals were down 17 percent to 188,100.

But the surprising figure in all this was the number of migrant departures which was up 37 percent to 134,000. Out of those 134,000 departures, 81,200 of them were Kiwi citizens.

That figure - I think it was 134,300 migrant departures - is provisionally the highest on record for an annual period.

This is not good news.

So yeah, those new regulations in Australia probably did have an impact or at least act as a tipping point that has sent some Kiwis on their way.

In the year ending March 2024, 53 percent of New Zealand's citizen migrant departures were to Australia. But of course, they're not just heading off to Australia, they're going everywhere.

Post-Covid, the pressure has been on the government of the day to convince people New Zealand is a great place to live and work, not just to keep talented Kiwis at home or encourage them to return, but to attract the many skilled workers we currently need at a time when the rest of the world is in pursuit of those same workers.

This has not been achieved.

The net migration gain in the last year to the end of August was 53,800. It was down sharply on the gain of around just over 67,000 for the July year.

Economists are concerned this may lead to zero net migration next year, which could impact the economy's action and potential growth rates, the balance of our labour market pressures, expected tax take, and of course the housing market.

I don't know how to convince someone who sees a better job, a better income, a better lifestyle somewhere else to stay providing them with the same or close opportunity.

Here in New Zealand is most likely the only solution to the discontent that has settled over the country. But how likely is that?

The Government is working hard to get this country back on track and it could hardly work faster, but it is going to take time. I tell you what though, the Government will be hoping this is as bad as these figures get and a turnaround is on the horizon.

For those of us still here. I certainly hope so.

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
So in April last year, it was announced New Zealander's
living in Australia suddenly afforded similar rights to Australians who
live in New Zealand when it comes to having a
pathway to citizenship. The change meant that from the first
of July twenty twenty three, New Zealanders who have lived
in Aussie for four years on temporary or special category
visas and met the standard Australian citizenship criteria, they could

(00:21):
apply for citizenship. So Kiwi's who've been living in Australia
since two thousand and one could apply directly for citizenship
without gaining permanent residency. First, Kiwi children born in Australia
will become citizens at birth, rather than waiting till they
turn ten. It was a game changer for kiwi's already
living in Australia, but the question of whether it would

(00:42):
contribute to a brain drain like the one we saw
in twenty eleven and twenty twelve was yet to be seen. Yeah,
So today Stats New Zealand released their provisional data for
annual migration figures for the year ending in August. Migrant
arrivals were down seventeen percent to one hundred and eighty
eight thousand, one hundred. But the surprising figure and all

(01:05):
this was the number of migrant departures, which was up
thirty seven percent to one hundred and thirty four thousand.
Out of those one hundred and thirty four thousand departures,
eighty one thousand, two hundred of them were Kiwi citizens.
That figure one hundred and thirty four thousand, I think
it was one hundred and thirty four thousand, three hundred

(01:25):
migrant departures is provisionally the highest on record for an
annual period. This is not good news. So yeah, those
new regulations in Australia probably did have an impact or
at least act as a tipping point that has sent
some Kiwis on their way. In the year ending March
twenty twenty four, fifty three percent of New Zealand citizen

(01:48):
migrant departures were to Australia. But of course they're not
just heading off to Australia, They're going everywhere. Post COVID.
The pressure has been on the Government of the day
to convince people New Zealand is a great place to
live and work, not just to keep talented Kiwis at
home or encourage them to return, but to attract the
many skilled workers we currently need at a time when

(02:11):
the rest of the world is in pursuit of those
same workers. This has not been achieved. The net migration
gain in the last year to the end of August
was fifty three eight hundred. It was down sharply on
the gain of around just over sixty seven thousand for
the July year. Economists are concerned this may lead to

(02:33):
zero net migration next year, which could impact the economy's
actual and potential growth rates, the balance of our labor market,
pressures expect the tax take, and of course the housing market.
I don't know how to convince someone who sees a
better job, a better income, a better lifestyle somewhere else

(02:54):
to stay. Providing them with the same or close opportunity
here in New Zealand is most likely the only solution
to the discontent that has settled over the country. But
how likely is that? The government is working hard to
get this country back on track, and it could hardly
work faster. But it is going to take time, I

(03:15):
tell you what, though the government will be hoping this
is as bad as these figures get and a turnaround
is on the horizon for those of us still here,
I certainly hope so. For more from Hither Duplessy Allen Drive,
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