Dr Leon Goldsmith: Otago University Professor for Middle Eastern and Comparative Politics on the capture of Bashar Al-Assad

Rebel forces in Syria say they have ended Bashar Al-Assad's rule as the government's troops withdraw from Damascus.

The Assad family has a decades-long reign in Syria.

Otago University Professor for Middle Eastern and Comparative Politics Leon Goldsmith joins Early Edition.

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Well, it's a route the sad Assad families. Decades long
reign in Syria came to an abrupt end over the
weekend when rebel forces captured Damascus. It was a stunning
lightning strike route right across the country. Russian officials have
said that Alisade has fled the country. They've called for
a peaceful transition of power. So to talk about this,
we are now joined by doctor Leon Goldsmith, who works

(00:22):
at the Ottaga University professor for Middle Eastern and Comparative Politics.
Welcome to the program, Leon, good morning. Yes, it seems
pretty definitive. It's happened, hasn't it. And was it a surprise, Well,
I think it was.

Speaker 2 (00:37):
I think it was a bit of a shark in
terms of just how hollow this regime was after like
fifty years of iron forested rule in the heart of
the Middle East. I think Syrians are in a state
of euphoria as of last night that I can't quite

(00:57):
believe that that this original was gone. It's quite a
cataclysmic it's.

Speaker 1 (01:04):
Yes, it is, and it's almost like an Alisard who
fought against us for so long and so hard, then
took some time off and just lost the will.

Speaker 2 (01:15):
Well. I think what's happened is over in the last
four years, he's actually lost his main support base of
loyalists within the country, and I think there was a
growing sense that what they had fought for there was
no victory Vividen for all of the sacrifices that his
supporters had made, and they were suffering more than ever

(01:36):
under his rule, and he didn't seem to care.

Speaker 1 (01:39):
The other thing, of course, is that his major allies
that were helping to fund him are helping to weaponize him.
Of course, Russia and Iran, they've got their own problems,
and so he was a bit abandoned.

Speaker 2 (01:48):
Yeah, No, he was extremely vulnerable and exposed in terms
of the Russian support that the Russians have been there
since the fifties, and they ran has been a major
batter of the region in percents the eighties. So this
is a fundamental change of the regional order as well
in terms of the main sort of power balance in
the region as well. It's going to be a lot

(02:10):
of change.

Speaker 1 (02:10):
Yeah, of course. Now here's the thing. Meet the new boss.
Is it the same as the old boss? What do
we know about the rebel forces? Is is actually a liberation.
Are these guys good guys?

Speaker 2 (02:20):
Yeah? And I say this is this is the once
the euphoria, initial euphorias, that of dies down in the
business of trying to see what a new Syria is
going to look like. But I think we have to
understand that Jilani or is going by his birth name
now Athman Shar'ah's not Isais al Kaida anymore. In fact,
they'll see a lot of what he's doing has been

(02:41):
a sort of antithetical to their extremest failures. But at
the same time, he is not someone that most Syrians actually,
despite the fact that that I appreciate what's happened in
terms of the liberation of the country, would want to
see as kind of someone adopting a powerful possession. I
think what you're going to see is a much broader

(03:01):
effort to try and coordinate an inclusive government. And I
think that's what we're seeing in the early stages. We're
seeing a very orderly transition. We're seeing a lot of
the existing institutions remaining in place. The Prime Minister Jilali
Sad has gone. We don't know exactly where he's gone.
There's rumors that he may even be have died in
a plane crash or something like that. But I think

(03:24):
that we shouldn't jump to conclusions. That's what I'm saying.
This is not This is not the same as Kulliban
takeover in Afghanistan for example.

Speaker 1 (03:34):
Yeah, no, no, that's good. Could it's not going to
be as bad as we might imagine, But then again
it might not be as good as that we might hope.

Speaker 2 (03:42):
Well, that's why we'll think. It's very important to keep
in mind. It wasn't just HTS liberated Syria over the
last eleven days, set free Cerian army element from the
from the south and from the from the east. Also
just ordinary Syrians rising up in their towns and villages,

(04:03):
overthrowing the local Baptist forces, and it's much broader coalition
general Syrian uprising and overthrowing of this regime.

Speaker 1 (04:15):
Good stuff, Leon Goldsworth, I thank you for your time today.

Speaker 2 (04:18):
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