Geoffrey Miller: Geopolitical Analyst on Donald Trumps tariffs and what they mean for New Zealand

US President Donald Trump has imposed tariffs on goods coming from Canada, Mexico and China, sparking fears of a trade war.

China is facing 10% on imports, while Canada and Mexico will see 25%. 

Canada has already hit back with retaliatory 25% tariffs for the US. 

Geopolitical Analyst Geoffrey Miller talks to Andrew Dickens about what these decisions will mean for the US and if New Zealand has to be wary. 

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
As promised, President Donald Trump has slapped tariffs on goods
coming from Canada, Mexico and China twenty five percent on
imports from Canada and Mexico, China's getting ten percent. All
three countries plan a counterattack. Canada has already done that,
albeit reluctantly. And so to talk about this, I am
joined by geopolitical analyst Jeffrey Miller.

Speaker 2 (00:19):
Hello Jeffrey, Good morning, Andrew.

Speaker 1 (00:23):
It's all on it's trade wars.

Speaker 2 (00:26):
It is indeed, this is the beginning of a new
trade war, and it's just not going to be good
for a country like New Zealand. There's an old African
proverb that says, when the elephants fight, the grass gets trampled.
I think that's applicable here.

Speaker 1 (00:37):
Very good. We'll talk about that more in a moment.
But it's going to affect America as well. There's an
analysis by Ernest Young that suggests it will reduce UK
growth US growth should I say, by one point five
percentage points this year, which you don't want. Canada and
Mexico will be thrown into recession and there will be
stagflation in all three countries. Do you think Americans and

(00:59):
Donald Trump truly understand the economic consequences.

Speaker 2 (01:03):
No, I think we're in uncharted territory here. I don't
think we've been here really since the Great Depression. In
many ways, there are similar action taken back in nineteen
thirty ironically, and it does have, yes, does seem familiar
in a sense from that time, because the tariffs that
Donald Trump placed on us during his first term we're
lower in nature. The tariff that he's promising now are

(01:26):
about three times the level. They're much broader based. There
aren't really the exceptions except for Canadian energy, which we'll
get a ten percent tariff ratherland twenty five percent. But
the tariffs on China's pretty much on everything. Ten percent
on all Chinese goods and twenty five percent all goods
from coming from Mexico. So it's a big play from

(01:46):
Donald Trump, and the markets don't like it. We're expecting
tumbles in the markets when they open on Monday, anywhere
between half and one percent. It could be more on
the days to come, and that might be the only
thing that possibly changes Donald Trump's mind.

Speaker 1 (02:00):
Trudeau has laid out retaliatory tariffs and made it very
clear he's done so reluctantly. Mexico says they will follow.
So apparently America has retaliatory tariffs already ir regulated for
so if you do that, it happens as fighting tariffs
with tariff's a good move.

Speaker 2 (02:18):
Well, the fighting fire with fire and not backing down.
I guess it's a game of brinksmanship here, and Justin
Trudeau will be betting on some kind of resolution, a
deal being done. Of course, Donald Trump loves the deal,
and he'll be hoping for much the same thing, because
in the end, this is being used as a powerplay.
It's being used that Donald Trump is putting these tariffs

(02:39):
in place under emergency legislation dating back to nineteen seventy seven,
which is why he's got these reasons of sentinel and
illegal immigration as the reasons, because he needs a rationale
for doing this, and he's looking for concessions much in
the way that he got concessions from Columbia. Columbia had
to agree to take in those deportation flights, and he'll

(03:02):
be looking for similar kinds of concessions from Mexico and
Canada and getting the United States, as he would see it,
a better deal.

Speaker 1 (03:10):
So look what kind of message is this sending to
the world. Canada is a close ally of America. Look
at justin Trudeau's speech. He evoked all the fighting on
the beaches and the wars and everything. You know, we
are a close friend, and yet they still have not
been spared. So does New Zealand need to be wary here?

Speaker 2 (03:28):
Indeed, look the lesson here is that no one is immune.
If Donald Trump is willing to place tariff's on Canada,
he's also threatening to place tariffs on the EU, then
New Zealand. I don't think he's got any real protection.
New Zealand isn't a formal US allies, a bit more
distance than the likes of Canada and Australia the UK,
so I don't think New zeal would have any great immunity.

(03:50):
New Zealand exports sixteen billion New Zealand dollars worth of
goods and services to the US every year, even while
there are restrictions on what we export. New Zealand's still
the exports two and a half billion dollars worth of
beef and other meata exports to the US every year
despite the being restrictions on it. I mean just that alone,
the meat exports that New Zealand sends to the US

(04:12):
every year. That alone is about the entirety or even
slightly more than what we export to the Golf region
every year. And we just signed that new free trade
agreement always conclude in negotiations on that the end of
last year.

Speaker 1 (04:25):
Take it into account that we need to be wary.
The question is should we speak out about what's actually
happening in the world right now? Would that be dangerous?

Speaker 2 (04:32):
Well, that's a good question. Do you want to poke
your head up above the parapet and speak out all
that just leads you to being clobbed. I think we're
going to be in Donald Trump's site anyway. As I say,
if Canada and the EU are, then New Zealand can't
be far away because we've got even less protection less
to offer, we're much smaller. I think probably the answer
at the moment is to keep our heads down and
work with diplomatic channel. So I think Winston Peter's the

(04:54):
Fire Minister, Tom McLay, the Trade Minister, should be working
the phones with their counterpart and trying to get senacy
to prevail here, because in the end everyone's going to
be the loser.

Speaker 1 (05:04):
With a trade war, That's true. Thank you so much,
Jeffrey Miller.

Speaker 2 (05:08):
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