We've got a bunch of new economic numbers this morning.
The recovery is underway. Finally.
We've had false dawns before, so I'm not overcooking this, but things are moving in the right direction. Investor confidence is up for Q3.
Most regions are getting a slice of the recovery action, according to Infometrics.
What's most interesting is investor confidence, led by Auckland, is up quite a bit and they're not worrying so much about the dramatic headlines from Trump, etc. They're shrugging them off.
And our attitudes to different types of investment are changing.
The proportion of us who see owning our own home as the best investment is now at its lowest level since 2015, and young people are loving stocks.
Which is no surprise - the S&P's up around 14% this year, house prices are falling or flat.
Which might help explain why the mood on capital gains seems to have shifted a bit.
But here's the thing with the capital gains: it will not lower house prices, it will not fix the structural deficit.
It will provide tax revenue for doctors visits, sure. But can those doctors visits be delivered, or just advertised in some brochure like Kiwibuild?
And to those who are enjoying success with stocks, congratulations.
Your gains aren't taxed, but property is the canary in the coal mine. It's a warning of more to come.
Give a politician an inch and they'll take a mile.
Look at the fundamentals of it. This CGT won't fix the stuff you'd expect it to fix and still leaves the State short of revenue.
So they'll eventually come for something else, and that something will be whatever's popular.
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Episode Transcript
We've got a bunch of new economic numbers this morning.
Recovery is underway finally. We've had a few false storms before,
as you know, so I'm not going to overcook this,
but things are moving in the right direction. Investor confidence
is up for quarter three. Most regions are now getting
a slice of the recovery action, not just the provinces.
This is according to Informetrics this morning. What's most interesting
(00:22):
is investor confidence, led by Auckland, is.
Speaker 2 (00:24):
Up quite a bit. And they're not worrying so much
about all the dramatic headlines from Trump. They're basically shrugging
them off. And our attitudes to different types.
Speaker 1 (00:34):
Of investments are changing. The proportion of us who see
owning your own home as the best investment is now
at its lowest level since twenty fifteen, and young people
are loving the stocks, which is no surprise. The SMP's
up almost fourteen percent this year. House prices are falling
or flat, which might help explain why the mood on
capital gains seems to have shifted a little bit. But
(00:57):
here's the thing with the capital gains. It will not
house prices, It will not fix the structural deficit. Yes,
it will provide tax revenue for doctor's visits. Sure, but
can those doctors' visits be delivered or just advertised in
some brochure.
Speaker 2 (01:14):
Like Key we build. And to those who are enjoying
success with stocks, congratulations, your gains aren't taxed property? Is
the Canarian the coal mine? Surely it's a warning of
more to come. Give a politician an inch and they
will take a mile look at the fundamentals of this.
The capital gains tax won't fix the stuff you would
expect it to fix, and still leaves the state short
(01:38):
of revenue, so they will eventually, sure, as night follows day,
come for something else, and that something else will be
whatever's popular in this case today Stocks.
Speaker 3 (01:50):
For more from Early Edition with Ryan Bridge. Listen live
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follow the podcast on iHeartRadio.
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