November 29, 2025 • 11 mins
Real Estate Market Wrap 🗞️
- Rates aren’t coming down anytime soon
- Why we can expect more withdrawals and cancellations
- And my market predictions based on the latest data from Louis Christopher, SQM Research
🔥 My Clearance Rate: 7/12 SOLD
To work with me in the Real Estate Gym - www.realestategym.com.au
👉 Join the Black Belt waitlist - https://secure.realestategym.com.au/blackbelt26-waitlist
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Tom Panos (00:00):
$9,000 a month for the lower end in Sydney.
$0,000 a month.
That's like $2,300 a weekyou're paying out of your
after-tax money.
And you haven't even boughtMount Franklin water.
You haven't put fuel in yourcar.
You haven't gone to Kohl's andbought milk and bread.
(00:24):
Do you understand what I'msaying?
In a year that saw interestrates come tumbling down, and
confidence grew astronomicallythroughout the year.
As the Reserve Bank waschopping away, the amount of
(00:44):
interest in buyers went up andcompounded and compounded until
October 29.
Until October 29, that is thedefining day when the inflation
figures came out, and theReserve Bank said, no, no, no,
no.
You're not getting a rate cuton Melbourne Cup Day.
(01:08):
No, no, no, no.
You're not getting a rate cutearly in the new year either.
If things continue, and guesswhat?
They did.
Inflation numbers out last weekdidn't come in the two to three
percent bandwidth, and we nowknow, we now know that the
(01:32):
inflation number drives theinterest rate.
So we know when the inflationnumber comes out, what's gonna
happen in a reserve bankdecision, and it looks like it
ain't coming down anytime soon.
In fact, my good mate MarkBurrus has actually indicated he
(01:58):
believes that the next ratemovement is gonna be up.
I'm not so sure.
And I believe that that's got alot to do with the inflation
numbers that are gonna come out.
And the good news is apparentlythe Reserve Bank's got the
technology now.
I'm well, thanks, Joseph, thetechnology now to be able to
(02:21):
look at things in smallerperiods of time so they'll be
able to make more dynamicdecisions.
So I've got to say to you thatthis change that happened about
a month ago, roughly a monthago.
So October 29th, what are wetoday?
Oh wow, that's we're on the29th, exactly four weeks ago.
I've got to say to you, themarket's changed.
(02:44):
No question about it.
The real estate market that Ioperate in has changed.
It has become easier for thebuyer.
There is less fear of missingout than what there was in
September, August, even July.
Buyers are walking away.
Why has there been a change inthe market?
(03:04):
Sentiment has changed becausepeople are thinking interest
rates are not going down.
The second reason is the stocksupply increased dramatically
and it was a late spring.
So those two things have meantthat things aren't blowing out
and we are not having a crazyboom.
(03:26):
Having said that, you all knowthat there are submarkets around
the country, and when you lookat the SQM, Louis Christopher,
who does his yearly Novemberforecast for 2026, has indicated
he believes that we're going tohave increases.
Perth, Adelaide, 15-17%thereabouts.
(03:50):
Sydney and Melbourne, who'venormally been the you know the
two leading teams in thecompetition, they're out towards
the bottom, ladies andgentlemen.
They're out towards the bottom.
And Louis Christopher is beingvery bullish.
Like he's basically indicatedeven if we get no rate cuts,
(04:12):
we're gonna have increases.
Luke Moroni says Brisbane isgoing nuts, and he is right.
My clients in Brisbane, I mean,I've got clients in Brisbane
that are banking that they'regonna, I've got one agent who,
Robbie, he told me he reckonshe's gonna sell 20 properties.
In the sorry, no, not Robbie,that's the other guys.
(04:33):
So Robbie reckons he's gonnasell around 10 in the next three
weeks.
He just says everything's justselling.
Same with in Perth, everythingis just selling.
Same as is in Adelaide,everything is selling.
So I've got to say to you, uh,by the way, if you're a vendor
and you're trying to time itright, do yourself a favor, be
(04:54):
on the market in January.
I've told you, I don't want youto be on the market late
December.
They're out at Westfield,they're out at Christmas
parties, and they're at BondaiBeach.
Be in the market when there'sno stock in January.
That's what I'd be doing.
And I've got to say to you, Iknow, I know the market's
changing because I had quite afew sold prior, and sold prior
are an indication that therewould have only been one really
(05:16):
strong bidder at the auction,which says to me there's no
depth in buyers.
Obviously, it is price pointcontingent, but I've got to say,
and this is not me trying to bea you know scare people, but
all you've got to do isunderstand we've got a large
cohort of people in Australia,thanks to ALBO's idea to give
(05:38):
people uh the ability to buywith a 5% deposit.
You've got to make sure thatthis inflation number gets under
control because I don't want tosee people having borrowed 95%
at an interest rate that theythought was going down, and in
fact, it goes up.
Guys, we've gone down that pathbefore.
(06:00):
You remember what happened?
We had the old reserve bank guysaying, hey, rates aren't going
up, rates aren't going up,they're going down.
They encouraged everyone tospend money.
The banks, they were right intoit.
Of course they are.
Banks want to lend money,that's how they make money.
But do yourself a favor overthis holiday period, go watch
(06:24):
the movie The Big Short, andhave a look at what happens when
you lend money to people in anirresponsible way and not look
at their ability to have a trackrecord of saving money.
And that's what you've got withthe five percenters.
Now, I'm not saying all 5%people are irresponsible with
(06:46):
money, but what I am saying isthat if you're borrowing 95% and
you've only got 5%, and thatrates go up, and all of a
sudden, you're already paying,like on a $1.5 million property,
let's be really clear, on a 5%deposit, your loan repayment's
about eight and a half grand.
(07:07):
Now, when rates start going up,mate, it goes up from eight and
a half grand a month to ninegrand, what have you.
Team, listen to me carefully.
Think about what I just said.
$9,000 a month for the lowerend in Sydney.
$9,000 a month.
That's like $2,300 a weekyou're paying out of your
(07:33):
after-tax money.
And you haven't even boughtMount Franklin water, you
haven't put fuel in your car,you haven't gone to Kohl's and
bought milk and bread.
Do you understand what I'msaying?
Just tread carefully in the waythat you go off.
Very different, very differentwhen you've got money, right?
(07:57):
Because money makes money.
Team.
Anyway, so tonight, ladies andgentlemen, oh by the way, today,
seven out of twelve.
It's not as easy as what peoplethink it is.
Seven out of twelve.
Gone are the fourteens out ofthe fourteens.
It's changing.
And it's not just me.
(08:18):
I've done a ring around to alot of the auctioneers,
including the chief auctioneerof the biggest group in
Australia.
I've done, I've done therunaround, right?
And it's not me.
Overall, last two weeks hasbeen absolutely harder, less so
in other cities.
Withdrawans and cancellationsare an absolute sign of a market
(08:42):
that is softening, and Ipredict that there's going to be
a lot more withdrawans andcancellations on the 13th and
the 20th of December.
And by the way, I've got totell you, someone stopped me on
the Bay Run today and he said,Do you know, Tom, you were the
only person that had a voice in2020 that went against what
(09:06):
everyone else said.
He said, Have a look, broughtit up on AI, and he said, You
said in May and April that don'tlisten to the headlines.
Prices are not going to drop35%.
You said they're going to goup.
They're going to go up andthey're going to go up hard.
And you said it, and no oneelse really said that.
(09:28):
Everyone else was doing thepanic party.
And you know why I said it?
Because there's something, myfriends, there's something, my
friends, that you get whenyou've got access to being on
the ground and seeing data inreal life, not historic data in
real life at the cutting edge.
(09:49):
And then all it takes issomeone that's got, you don't
have to be super smart, butbasic understanding of some of
the economic principles and asimple understanding that demand
and supply is the biggestdriver of prices in real estate
in the world.
And if you look at the factorsthat are going to affect the
demand, and the factors that aregoing to meant the supply, and
(10:10):
it meant that there was hardlygoing to be any properties on
the market, and that's the onesthat were going to go up, and
that's exactly what happened.
So, team, I'm letting you knowto the real estate agents, to
the real estate agents that areon here, my training in 2026 is
very simple.
Real estate gym is around $65 amonth, and I work with you
(10:33):
mainly online.
The real estate gym for lessthan a coffee a day.
I will be your virtual coach.
And for those that are on theblack belt program, it's all
being finalized.
We have more people that haveapplied for it.
And the reason why, it's aface-to-face one.
It has got monthlyaccountability.
I'm going to be on yourWhatsApp group with your EBU on
(10:55):
a day-to-day basis.
And that's why that's beenoversubscribed.
But we haven't actuallyfinalized who are the final
people.
We have selected now, I thinkSusan has said 32.
We're still going to put inanother eight.
Everything in my training, goto Instagram, LinkedIn bio, or
go to Tom Panos, go to realestate gym.
(11:17):
Ladies and gentlemen, I'm goingto sign off.
You've got Luke, I rememberseeing you, uh Sal on Byron Bay
Beach in 2020 saying to buy,buy, buy 100%.
Buy, buy, buy.
$9,000 a month for the lower end in Sydney.
$0,000 a month.
That's like $2,300 a weekyou're paying out of your
after-tax money.
And you haven't even boughtMount Franklin water.
You haven't put fuel in yourcar.
You haven't gone to Kohl's andbought milk and bread.
(00:24):
Do you understand what I'msaying?
In a year that saw interestrates come tumbling down, and
confidence grew astronomicallythroughout the year.
As the Reserve Bank waschopping away, the amount of
(00:44):
interest in buyers went up andcompounded and compounded until
October 29.
Until October 29, that is thedefining day when the inflation
figures came out, and theReserve Bank said, no, no, no,
no.
You're not getting a rate cuton Melbourne Cup Day.
(01:08):
No, no, no, no.
You're not getting a rate cutearly in the new year either.
If things continue, and guesswhat?
They did.
Inflation numbers out last weekdidn't come in the two to three
percent bandwidth, and we nowknow, we now know that the
(01:32):
inflation number drives theinterest rate.
So we know when the inflationnumber comes out, what's gonna
happen in a reserve bankdecision, and it looks like it
ain't coming down anytime soon.
In fact, my good mate MarkBurrus has actually indicated he
(01:58):
believes that the next ratemovement is gonna be up.
I'm not so sure.
And I believe that that's got alot to do with the inflation
numbers that are gonna come out.
And the good news is apparentlythe Reserve Bank's got the
technology now.
I'm well, thanks, Joseph, thetechnology now to be able to
(02:21):
look at things in smallerperiods of time so they'll be
able to make more dynamicdecisions.
So I've got to say to you thatthis change that happened about
a month ago, roughly a monthago.
So October 29th, what are wetoday?
Oh wow, that's we're on the29th, exactly four weeks ago.
I've got to say to you, themarket's changed.
(02:44):
No question about it.
The real estate market that Ioperate in has changed.
It has become easier for thebuyer.
There is less fear of missingout than what there was in
September, August, even July.
Buyers are walking away.
Why has there been a change inthe market?
(03:04):
Sentiment has changed becausepeople are thinking interest
rates are not going down.
The second reason is the stocksupply increased dramatically
and it was a late spring.
So those two things have meantthat things aren't blowing out
and we are not having a crazyboom.
(03:26):
Having said that, you all knowthat there are submarkets around
the country, and when you lookat the SQM, Louis Christopher,
who does his yearly Novemberforecast for 2026, has indicated
he believes that we're going tohave increases.
Perth, Adelaide, 15-17%thereabouts.
(03:50):
Sydney and Melbourne, who'venormally been the you know the
two leading teams in thecompetition, they're out towards
the bottom, ladies andgentlemen.
They're out towards the bottom.
And Louis Christopher is beingvery bullish.
Like he's basically indicatedeven if we get no rate cuts,
(04:12):
we're gonna have increases.
Luke Moroni says Brisbane isgoing nuts, and he is right.
My clients in Brisbane, I mean,I've got clients in Brisbane
that are banking that they'regonna, I've got one agent who,
Robbie, he told me he reckonshe's gonna sell 20 properties.
In the sorry, no, not Robbie,that's the other guys.
(04:33):
So Robbie reckons he's gonnasell around 10 in the next three
weeks.
He just says everything's justselling.
Same with in Perth, everythingis just selling.
Same as is in Adelaide,everything is selling.
So I've got to say to you, uh,by the way, if you're a vendor
and you're trying to time itright, do yourself a favor, be
(04:54):
on the market in January.
I've told you, I don't want youto be on the market late
December.
They're out at Westfield,they're out at Christmas
parties, and they're at BondaiBeach.
Be in the market when there'sno stock in January.
That's what I'd be doing.
And I've got to say to you, Iknow, I know the market's
changing because I had quite afew sold prior, and sold prior
are an indication that therewould have only been one really
(05:16):
strong bidder at the auction,which says to me there's no
depth in buyers.
Obviously, it is price pointcontingent, but I've got to say,
and this is not me trying to bea you know scare people, but
all you've got to do isunderstand we've got a large
cohort of people in Australia,thanks to ALBO's idea to give
(05:38):
people uh the ability to buywith a 5% deposit.
You've got to make sure thatthis inflation number gets under
control because I don't want tosee people having borrowed 95%
at an interest rate that theythought was going down, and in
fact, it goes up.
Guys, we've gone down that pathbefore.
(06:00):
You remember what happened?
We had the old reserve bank guysaying, hey, rates aren't going
up, rates aren't going up,they're going down.
They encouraged everyone tospend money.
The banks, they were right intoit.
Of course they are.
Banks want to lend money,that's how they make money.
But do yourself a favor overthis holiday period, go watch
(06:24):
the movie The Big Short, andhave a look at what happens when
you lend money to people in anirresponsible way and not look
at their ability to have a trackrecord of saving money.
And that's what you've got withthe five percenters.
Now, I'm not saying all 5%people are irresponsible with
(06:46):
money, but what I am saying isthat if you're borrowing 95% and
you've only got 5%, and thatrates go up, and all of a
sudden, you're already paying,like on a $1.5 million property,
let's be really clear, on a 5%deposit, your loan repayment's
about eight and a half grand.
(07:07):
Now, when rates start going up,mate, it goes up from eight and
a half grand a month to ninegrand, what have you.
Team, listen to me carefully.
Think about what I just said.
$9,000 a month for the lowerend in Sydney.
$9,000 a month.
That's like $2,300 a weekyou're paying out of your
(07:33):
after-tax money.
And you haven't even boughtMount Franklin water, you
haven't put fuel in your car,you haven't gone to Kohl's and
bought milk and bread.
Do you understand what I'msaying?
Just tread carefully in the waythat you go off.
Very different, very differentwhen you've got money, right?
(07:57):
Because money makes money.
Team.
Anyway, so tonight, ladies andgentlemen, oh by the way, today,
seven out of twelve.
It's not as easy as what peoplethink it is.
Seven out of twelve.
Gone are the fourteens out ofthe fourteens.
It's changing.
And it's not just me.
(08:18):
I've done a ring around to alot of the auctioneers,
including the chief auctioneerof the biggest group in
Australia.
I've done, I've done therunaround, right?
And it's not me.
Overall, last two weeks hasbeen absolutely harder, less so
in other cities.
Withdrawans and cancellationsare an absolute sign of a market
(08:42):
that is softening, and Ipredict that there's going to be
a lot more withdrawans andcancellations on the 13th and
the 20th of December.
And by the way, I've got totell you, someone stopped me on
the Bay Run today and he said,Do you know, Tom, you were the
only person that had a voice in2020 that went against what
(09:06):
everyone else said.
He said, Have a look, broughtit up on AI, and he said, You
said in May and April that don'tlisten to the headlines.
Prices are not going to drop35%.
You said they're going to goup.
They're going to go up andthey're going to go up hard.
And you said it, and no oneelse really said that.
(09:28):
Everyone else was doing thepanic party.
And you know why I said it?
Because there's something, myfriends, there's something, my
friends, that you get whenyou've got access to being on
the ground and seeing data inreal life, not historic data in
real life at the cutting edge.
(09:49):
And then all it takes issomeone that's got, you don't
have to be super smart, butbasic understanding of some of
the economic principles and asimple understanding that demand
and supply is the biggestdriver of prices in real estate
in the world.
And if you look at the factorsthat are going to affect the
demand, and the factors that aregoing to meant the supply, and
(10:10):
it meant that there was hardlygoing to be any properties on
the market, and that's the onesthat were going to go up, and
that's exactly what happened.
So, team, I'm letting you knowto the real estate agents, to
the real estate agents that areon here, my training in 2026 is
very simple.
Real estate gym is around $65 amonth, and I work with you
(10:33):
mainly online.
The real estate gym for lessthan a coffee a day.
I will be your virtual coach.
And for those that are on theblack belt program, it's all
being finalized.
We have more people that haveapplied for it.
And the reason why, it's aface-to-face one.
It has got monthlyaccountability.
I'm going to be on yourWhatsApp group with your EBU on
(10:55):
a day-to-day basis.
And that's why that's beenoversubscribed.
But we haven't actuallyfinalized who are the final
people.
We have selected now, I thinkSusan has said 32.
We're still going to put inanother eight.
Everything in my training, goto Instagram, LinkedIn bio, or
go to Tom Panos, go to realestate gym.
(11:17):
Ladies and gentlemen, I'm goingto sign off.
You've got Luke, I rememberseeing you, uh Sal on Byron Bay
Beach in 2020 saying to buy,buy, buy 100%.
Buy, buy, buy.
Popular Podcasts
Las Culturistas with Matt Rogers and Bowen Yang
Ding dong! Join your culture consultants, Matt Rogers and Bowen Yang, on an unforgettable journey into the beating heart of CULTURE. Alongside sizzling special guests, they GET INTO the hottest pop-culture moments of the day and the formative cultural experiences that turned them into Culturistas. Produced by the Big Money Players Network and iHeartRadio.
Crime Junkie
Does hearing about a true crime case always leave you scouring the internet for the truth behind the story? Dive into your next mystery with Crime Junkie. Every Monday, join your host Ashley Flowers as she unravels all the details of infamous and underreported true crime cases with her best friend Brit Prawat. From cold cases to missing persons and heroes in our community who seek justice, Crime Junkie is your destination for theories and stories you won’t hear anywhere else. Whether you're a seasoned true crime enthusiast or new to the genre, you'll find yourself on the edge of your seat awaiting a new episode every Monday. If you can never get enough true crime... Congratulations, you’ve found your people. Follow to join a community of Crime Junkies! Crime Junkie is presented by audiochuck Media Company.
The Brothers Ortiz
The Brothers Ortiz is the story of two brothers–both successful, but in very different ways. Gabe Ortiz becomes a third-highest ranking officer in all of Texas while his younger brother Larry climbs the ranks in Puro Tango Blast, a notorious Texas Prison gang. Gabe doesn’t know all the details of his brother’s nefarious dealings, and he’s made a point not to ask, to protect their relationship. But when Larry is murdered during a home invasion in a rented beach house, Gabe has no choice but to look into what happened that night. To solve Larry’s murder, Gabe, and the whole Ortiz family, must ask each other tough questions.