March 15, 2025 • 11 mins
• Key factors driving prices: Economy, population growth, gov policies & construction costs.
• Political focus on housing = big impact on future market trends.
• Supply challenges & rising costs are boosting demand, especially for units.
• Speculative demand climbing with infrastructure growth & foreign investment.
My Clearance Rate: 12/13
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Tom Panos (00:00):
I think a lot of people actually turn around and
say to themselves this is all aresult of interest rates going
down.
Now I've got to tell you, aquarter percent drop which gives
people a saving of I don't knowwhat it is 70, 80 a month is
neither here nor there.
(00:20):
But what has changed is thesentiment.
Well, hello, hello, hello, latefinish.
It is quarter to seven insydney and I have just finished
my 13th auction of the day and Iwant to let you know it was a
(00:44):
day to remember.
It reminded me of the dayswhere there was fear of missing
out in the marketplace.
Now, I don't know whether it'sgoing to be there next week, but
what I can tell you, it wasthere this week.
There was fear of missing out.
This week there was fear ofmissing out.
(01:05):
There was a property I've justcome from in Moorbank that sold
for an amazing number, like I'vegot to tell you, nearly 200
grand more than what theexpected price was.
This is on a 1.6 type property1.6, not a 3 million type
(01:25):
property, hi Michael.
So let me give you the results,ladies and gentlemen 13 options
today, 12 out of 13.
That means that since the ratecut, we've had four weekends of
options and they're all over 90%.
One week was 100%, the resthave all been over 90%.
What were the prices like?
(01:47):
Good to above average?
Not amazing, there is no boom.
However, I have not seen themarketplace have that much
health for a number of years, anumber of years, a number of
years, and I sat down and Iwrote out a few notes as to the
(02:09):
things that impact real estateprices, because I think a lot of
people actually turn around andsay to themselves this is all a
result of interest rates goingdown.
Now I've got to tell you aquarter percent drop, which
gives people a saving of I don'tknow what it is 70, 80 a month
(02:31):
is neither here nor there, butwhat has changed is the
sentiment, and sentiment is oneof a number of factors that
affect a real estate market.
So let me run through,particularly for those of you
that are trying to work outwhat's going to happen in this
market, if you're a buyer oreven if you're a seller.
(02:51):
Well, number one, let me tellyou the economic conditions at
the moment are about the factthat buyers are feeling that
rates are going to come downmore, down, more, and that has
pushed a lot of buyers to takethe plunge and put their hand up
(03:12):
and bid with the view thatthey'll be paying more later if
they don't.
Interest rates is the secondfactor and a main factor.
So factor number one iseconomic conditions.
Second factor is interest rates.
Third factor is populationgrowth.
That is a major indicator onwhat's going to happen in real
estate.
So we clearly know thatAustralia has a population
(03:38):
growth.
Not only does it have apopulation growth, it has a
population growth problem andthat is that we are bringing in
people left, right and centre,most of those coming to Sydney,
melbourne, brisbane and Perth,going into metro areas and we
(04:00):
are not building properties forthose people.
And the reason we're notbuilding properties is, as I
said during the week on one ofmy Insta reels, a developer
ain't going to be paying $1,000a day to tradespeople, having
risks with governments slowingthings up and having the higher
(04:23):
interest rates because nearlyall developers are using banks'
monies.
So they're just not building.
They're not building.
I mean, it's got to the stagenow where, when you look at a
block of units, you can buy ablock of units as a buyer at
most likely cheaper than itwould cost to actually build
that property right.
(04:45):
So these are the factors thatare impacting prices population
growth, economic conditions,interest rates.
And then the next thing isgovernment policies and taxation
.
And what are we seeing?
We're seeing both politicalparties, both the liberals and
(05:07):
the Labor Party, are spruikingon their social media campaigns.
One subject property.
They're not talking aboutclimate change and they're not
talking about gender politics.
They're talking about property.
And the reason they're talkingabout property is their
(05:28):
marketing research.
People have obviously tappedthem on the shoulder and said
this is what's keeping people upat night.
Renters are being kept up atnight thinking how they're going
to keep paying the rent.
Buyers keep thinking how can Iactually buy a property?
So I've got to say to you,ladies and gentlemen, we've got
(05:52):
another reason why I thinkproperty prices are going to
keep going up, and that'sbecause we've got both parties
that are now using real estateas their strategy to win the
election.
Then you've got the next factorthat impacts real estate supply
and construction costs supplyconstraints and construction
(06:16):
costs.
So the constraints are that ifit's difficult for people to
actually provide a supply, andthen you've got difficult for
people, even if they canactually build, the costs are
out of hand.
So we know that they're reallylike.
You know, it used to costaround 350 grand to build a unit
(06:38):
per unit, right, when adeveloper built units.
They use 350 as the ratio,right, per unit, mate.
It's now 550.
Who's going to go off and build?
So that's why I'm telling you,by the way, I reckon units are
the commodity to be buying,because they just haven't built
any in the last few years.
The next thing is consumerconfidence and speculative
(06:59):
demand, and that's what we'reseeing at the moment.
We're seeing consumerconfidence and speculative
demand going up in the lastmonth and that's why we're
seeing a change in this market.
Foreign investment is anotherkey indicator that impacts real
estate prices.
Infrastructure developmentwherever you see there's an
infrastructure being built, yougo off and you buy real estate
(07:19):
around there, because it'sbasically going to say they're
putting shops up, they'reputting transport up, they're
putting hospitals up, they'reputting education up there,
they're building roads there.
It's going to mean that peopleare going to be living there.
And the last one isavailability of financing, right
.
So I remember working in themarketplace in 1991, which came
after the 1988-89 boom, andthere was just no finance
(07:43):
available.
No one could get any finance.
So, ladies and gentlemen, I'vegiven you these factors.
If you analyze those half adozen or more factors, they're
all looking positive.
I think I'm going to put my neckout on the line and say that I
can only see it going up and inno other direction, unless
(08:06):
there's something crazy that'sgoing on.
Obviously we've got worldpolitics.
At the moment, everyone'sturning off Elon Musk.
I've got a mate of mine, scottDutton.
He actually spoke at ARIC, justtold me an hour ago he's
getting rid of his tesla,doesn't want to be aligned with
elon.
Actually, this, this, thiszooms, this, uh, live streams
coming out of my tesla.
(08:26):
I've had a tesla since 2017 thetesla rex and I love the car
and, um, I think some of whatelon does is good, not all.
I could say the Not all.
I could say the same aboutTrump.
I could say the same about theopposition party.
I could say the same about Dunn.
I can say the same about Albo.
(08:47):
A lot of people automaticallywill come up to the assumption
and they'll think to themselvesPanos is a liberal voter.
I'm a swinging voter.
I've made that very clear.
I came up from a very poorfamily and I came up in an area
that was brought up that Laborwere the people to vote for.
But as I got older I startedmaking up my own minds and not
(09:10):
just having parental influence.
And I swing vote, I go from oneto the other, I swing vote, I
go from one to the other and Ican tell you I think if you
didn't have both parties you'dhave an absolute mess.
That's what they're there for.
Each party's there to keep theother one honest.
(09:31):
Many people have asked me todayon DMs about that vendor that I
posted on Instagram Yesterday.
A vendor brought their friendto the pre-auction vendor
meeting on the phone yesterdayand you know what it's like.
You know when you've got afriend, normally the friend does
not help the vendor.
(09:51):
I think that they actually makethings worse.
And today I had another friendof a vendor on another property
and that vendor turned aroundand told their friend.
The vendor's friend told thevendor they should not accept
the offer.
(10:11):
Now I can tell you anyone thathas dealt with me knows I don't
actually push vendors to acceptoffers.
If they don't feel comfortable,I say don't sell it.
This was good money on thisproperty and I said to the owner
if it was my property I wouldsell it, but it's not.
(10:33):
So you've got to make thedecision.
Decision.
The vendor's friend.
The vendor's friend told themthat they shouldn't sell it and
that they said that they'll getmore money next week.
And you know what I said to thevendor's friend Well, how sure
(10:54):
are you of this?
He says I'm definite it's cheapat this price.
And I said well, in that case,why don't you buy it at this
price?
Let's not actually do the deal,but you commit to buying it and
if we get more money in thenext two weeks, you don't have
(11:15):
to buy it.
How's that, guess what thatproperty got sold today?
Have a good night.
I think a lot of people actually turn around and
say to themselves this is all aresult of interest rates going
down.
Now I've got to tell you, aquarter percent drop which gives
people a saving of I don't knowwhat it is 70, 80 a month is
neither here nor there.
(00:20):
But what has changed is thesentiment.
Well, hello, hello, hello, latefinish.
It is quarter to seven insydney and I have just finished
my 13th auction of the day and Iwant to let you know it was a
(00:44):
day to remember.
It reminded me of the dayswhere there was fear of missing
out in the marketplace.
Now, I don't know whether it'sgoing to be there next week, but
what I can tell you, it wasthere this week.
There was fear of missing out.
This week there was fear ofmissing out.
(01:05):
There was a property I've justcome from in Moorbank that sold
for an amazing number, like I'vegot to tell you, nearly 200
grand more than what theexpected price was.
This is on a 1.6 type property1.6, not a 3 million type
(01:25):
property, hi Michael.
So let me give you the results,ladies and gentlemen 13 options
today, 12 out of 13.
That means that since the ratecut, we've had four weekends of
options and they're all over 90%.
One week was 100%, the resthave all been over 90%.
What were the prices like?
(01:47):
Good to above average?
Not amazing, there is no boom.
However, I have not seen themarketplace have that much
health for a number of years, anumber of years, a number of
years, and I sat down and Iwrote out a few notes as to the
(02:09):
things that impact real estateprices, because I think a lot of
people actually turn around andsay to themselves this is all a
result of interest rates goingdown.
Now I've got to tell you aquarter percent drop, which
gives people a saving of I don'tknow what it is 70, 80 a month
(02:31):
is neither here nor there, butwhat has changed is the
sentiment, and sentiment is oneof a number of factors that
affect a real estate market.
So let me run through,particularly for those of you
that are trying to work outwhat's going to happen in this
market, if you're a buyer oreven if you're a seller.
(02:51):
Well, number one, let me tellyou the economic conditions at
the moment are about the factthat buyers are feeling that
rates are going to come downmore, down, more, and that has
pushed a lot of buyers to takethe plunge and put their hand up
(03:12):
and bid with the view thatthey'll be paying more later if
they don't.
Interest rates is the secondfactor and a main factor.
So factor number one iseconomic conditions.
Second factor is interest rates.
Third factor is populationgrowth.
That is a major indicator onwhat's going to happen in real
estate.
So we clearly know thatAustralia has a population
(03:38):
growth.
Not only does it have apopulation growth, it has a
population growth problem andthat is that we are bringing in
people left, right and centre,most of those coming to Sydney,
melbourne, brisbane and Perth,going into metro areas and we
(04:00):
are not building properties forthose people.
And the reason we're notbuilding properties is, as I
said during the week on one ofmy Insta reels, a developer
ain't going to be paying $1,000a day to tradespeople, having
risks with governments slowingthings up and having the higher
(04:23):
interest rates because nearlyall developers are using banks'
monies.
So they're just not building.
They're not building.
I mean, it's got to the stagenow where, when you look at a
block of units, you can buy ablock of units as a buyer at
most likely cheaper than itwould cost to actually build
that property right.
(04:45):
So these are the factors thatare impacting prices population
growth, economic conditions,interest rates.
And then the next thing isgovernment policies and taxation
.
And what are we seeing?
We're seeing both politicalparties, both the liberals and
(05:07):
the Labor Party, are spruikingon their social media campaigns.
One subject property.
They're not talking aboutclimate change and they're not
talking about gender politics.
They're talking about property.
And the reason they're talkingabout property is their
(05:28):
marketing research.
People have obviously tappedthem on the shoulder and said
this is what's keeping people upat night.
Renters are being kept up atnight thinking how they're going
to keep paying the rent.
Buyers keep thinking how can Iactually buy a property?
So I've got to say to you,ladies and gentlemen, we've got
(05:52):
another reason why I thinkproperty prices are going to
keep going up, and that'sbecause we've got both parties
that are now using real estateas their strategy to win the
election.
Then you've got the next factorthat impacts real estate supply
and construction costs supplyconstraints and construction
(06:16):
costs.
So the constraints are that ifit's difficult for people to
actually provide a supply, andthen you've got difficult for
people, even if they canactually build, the costs are
out of hand.
So we know that they're reallylike.
You know, it used to costaround 350 grand to build a unit
(06:38):
per unit, right, when adeveloper built units.
They use 350 as the ratio,right, per unit, mate.
It's now 550.
Who's going to go off and build?
So that's why I'm telling you,by the way, I reckon units are
the commodity to be buying,because they just haven't built
any in the last few years.
The next thing is consumerconfidence and speculative
(06:59):
demand, and that's what we'reseeing at the moment.
We're seeing consumerconfidence and speculative
demand going up in the lastmonth and that's why we're
seeing a change in this market.
Foreign investment is anotherkey indicator that impacts real
estate prices.
Infrastructure developmentwherever you see there's an
infrastructure being built, yougo off and you buy real estate
(07:19):
around there, because it'sbasically going to say they're
putting shops up, they'reputting transport up, they're
putting hospitals up, they'reputting education up there,
they're building roads there.
It's going to mean that peopleare going to be living there.
And the last one isavailability of financing, right
.
So I remember working in themarketplace in 1991, which came
after the 1988-89 boom, andthere was just no finance
(07:43):
available.
No one could get any finance.
So, ladies and gentlemen, I'vegiven you these factors.
If you analyze those half adozen or more factors, they're
all looking positive.
I think I'm going to put my neckout on the line and say that I
can only see it going up and inno other direction, unless
(08:06):
there's something crazy that'sgoing on.
Obviously we've got worldpolitics.
At the moment, everyone'sturning off Elon Musk.
I've got a mate of mine, scottDutton.
He actually spoke at ARIC, justtold me an hour ago he's
getting rid of his tesla,doesn't want to be aligned with
elon.
Actually, this, this, thiszooms, this, uh, live streams
coming out of my tesla.
(08:26):
I've had a tesla since 2017 thetesla rex and I love the car
and, um, I think some of whatelon does is good, not all.
I could say the Not all.
I could say the same aboutTrump.
I could say the same about theopposition party.
I could say the same about Dunn.
I can say the same about Albo.
(08:47):
A lot of people automaticallywill come up to the assumption
and they'll think to themselvesPanos is a liberal voter.
I'm a swinging voter.
I've made that very clear.
I came up from a very poorfamily and I came up in an area
that was brought up that Laborwere the people to vote for.
But as I got older I startedmaking up my own minds and not
(09:10):
just having parental influence.
And I swing vote, I go from oneto the other, I swing vote, I
go from one to the other and Ican tell you I think if you
didn't have both parties you'dhave an absolute mess.
That's what they're there for.
Each party's there to keep theother one honest.
(09:31):
Many people have asked me todayon DMs about that vendor that I
posted on Instagram Yesterday.
A vendor brought their friendto the pre-auction vendor
meeting on the phone yesterdayand you know what it's like.
You know when you've got afriend, normally the friend does
not help the vendor.
(09:51):
I think that they actually makethings worse.
And today I had another friendof a vendor on another property
and that vendor turned aroundand told their friend.
The vendor's friend told thevendor they should not accept
the offer.
(10:11):
Now I can tell you anyone thathas dealt with me knows I don't
actually push vendors to acceptoffers.
If they don't feel comfortable,I say don't sell it.
This was good money on thisproperty and I said to the owner
if it was my property I wouldsell it, but it's not.
(10:33):
So you've got to make thedecision.
Decision.
The vendor's friend.
The vendor's friend told themthat they shouldn't sell it and
that they said that they'll getmore money next week.
And you know what I said to thevendor's friend Well, how sure
(10:54):
are you of this?
He says I'm definite it's cheapat this price.
And I said well, in that case,why don't you buy it at this
price?
Let's not actually do the deal,but you commit to buying it and
if we get more money in thenext two weeks, you don't have
(11:15):
to buy it.
How's that, guess what thatproperty got sold today?
Have a good night.
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