Week Ending 08_22_2025 Stock Market Recap

Who knew Fed Chair Jay Powell was also a superstar gymnast? How so? TUNE IN TO FIND OUT!

Episode Transcript

(00:34):
Hello and welcome to
this week's edition of the Big Money Report. I'm
your host, David Boothe, President and Chief Investment Officer at BIG
Investment Services. That's BIG, Boothe Investment
Group. We're a full-service financial advisory based at Dover, Delaware,
serving clients all across America. And you

(00:57):
can read all about us at abigplan.com. That's www.abigplan.com. I
like to put the show together once a week just to give you a recap of the week behind
and a peek at the week and weeks to come, trying
to keep you up to speed with you and your money. And we're glad you're with
us today. It is Friday, August 22nd, 2025. So big

(01:18):
shout out to Roger, Pat, Dave, David, good names,
by the way, guys, Rob, Rip and Cameron, folks
tuning in, folks showing us some love on Google, all that good stuff. We
appreciate all of that. And look, For all of you that was worried that
I was stuck in a cave somewhere far away last week, that
was not the case. I was not recording in my home studio. And

(01:39):
I think I said the mic up backwards. Our production team, Neon
Siren Studios and Jac over there are amazing, but
they can only do so much with what I send over. And they turn this thing around within
12 hours. Nobody does that. You know, we get it to them in the evening on Friday
and you're listening to it on Saturday morning. No time for me to
do a retake on that. But hopefully this week, I don't sound like I'm in

(02:00):
a cave in some distant land being held captive somewhere.
Anyway, hey, let's jump into the numbers. And let me tell you what went on
this week. Wow, what a rollercoaster ride
of a week it is. You know, listen, we have a young lady gymnast that
we know over at BIG named Bryce, and
she is a balance beam rock star,

(02:22):
okay? Amazing on the balance beam. But Bryce
got some competition this week from the one and only Mr.
Fed Chair Jay Powell, because let me tell you something.
He delivered a speech this morning from Jacson Hole,
Wyoming, that walked the balance beam about better than I've ever seen. And
the market liked it, for now, okay, for now. Let's go ahead and

(02:43):
talk about it. Dow Jones, after being down all week long, ended
up up 1.5% on the week. The S&P 500 squeaked
out a gain of 0.2%. The Nasdaq Composite
still finished down half a percent, even though it was up almost 2% on the day. and
the Russell Small Cap Index having some life breathed into
its lungs, up 3.3% on the week. We'll talk a little bit

(03:05):
more about how the week went in just a moment. The volatility index, after
being up quite a bit earlier this week, finished down 5.7% on the
week. It's at a 14.2%, getting way down to, again, a
very complacent level. Long-term bonds as measured by
the TLT up about 0.7. So not a
lot of movement there. But today, we had a little bit

(03:25):
more of a movement today with these Fed comments, let's say, as
far as what future policy may hold. And then taking a
look at the sectors for the week, it was a tale of two stories this
week. For a lot of the week, it was the defensive areas that were doing really strong,
things like utilities and consumer staples, which finished up
half a percent on the week, respectively. Energy had a great week.

(03:45):
It was up 3%. But then here on Friday, you know,
the tables turned with this Powell speech, and then some of
the growth areas started to kick into gear. So we saw other
areas of the market start to participate a little bit stronger, like industrials and
materials and things along those lines. Tech still not having a great week. It
was still down 1.2% on the week, even with today's big move.

(04:06):
And semiconductors also down half a percent on the week, even with today's big
move. Communication services, too. So all the kind of tech related
stuff, the growthy stuff, the NASDAQ type of things still
not rebounding from the brutal week that they had. And it was
pretty brutal. Look, all week long, the market was being pressed lower
and lower and lower every single day. I said last week, I thought maybe by the end

(04:26):
of this week, the market could start to roll over. it started
right out of the gate. And I think a lot of it was negative anticipation of
what Powell was going to say on Friday. I, too, really thought that
Powell was going to come out holding his cards much closer to the vest than
what he did. But he definitely signaled the
potential for rate policy change in today's remarks

(04:48):
that he delivered from the Jacson Hole meeting this past week. So the
market, I think, was anticipating negativity. We saw just sliding down
a little bit each and every day. But, you know, it's really rather tame. It
really didn't get unruly. It stayed pretty consistent and pretty calm.
It was just weak, you know, just very, very weak. The
technicals still indicate that things are stretched here. It's not out
of the woods yet. And there's still a lot of data points coming.

(05:11):
Okay. We're going to have PCE next week. That is the number one inflation number
that the Fed looks at. The week after that, we're going to have the next jobs number.
And listen, we are in a phase right now. We're in a place right at
this very moment that good news, good news
on jobs is probably going to mean bad news on
the market. if this market gets any indication that

(05:32):
there is reason for the Fed to not cut
rates in September. And Jay Powell, like he walked
a balance beam, he indicated potential policy change,
but he did not commit to it. And he definitely left the door wide
open to not make any moves. If the market starts to sniff that
out, it goes back down again. So look, the technicals still look weak. We're still

(05:53):
going into a very weak period seasonally. I
still think there's risk to the market. And this week ended up being a
really all said and done was a big ho-hum except for small caps, which
they needed some life in them anyway. They've been a dog all year. They're only
up 5.9% right now year to date as we speak. So they've been lagging all year long.
It's about time to see them move. Gold and silver, we didn't touch base on those, but

(06:14):
they were up a little bit this week too. Gold up 1%, silver up 2.4. So
that was a big story all week long. We did have some earnings coming out
from retailers and they were okay. It was kind of a mixed bag as
far as that was concerned, but I thought overall it was all right. You know, there's some interesting things
going on with retailers. You know, a lot of these retailers, they average their cost of
goods throughout the course of the year. which means that they're not

(06:36):
actually reflecting the full brunt of
tariffs in these reports at the moment, because those
costs are being averaged with costs from earlier in
the year as well. So some of these retailers do
their accounting that way. And I think that kind of clouds the picture a
little bit. Walmart reported a pretty good quarter, but the stock did not
react very well to it. I don't know if the market thinks it's just kind of

(06:59):
peak at this moment or what, but I was kind of surprised by that reaction. Look,
next week we do have one big earnings report that's going to come out and
it's going to be a potential market mover and that's Nvidia. Nvidia
being, you know, the preeminent, the number one, the
leader in the artificial intelligence chip space. They're
going to report next week and that could be a market mover if

(07:20):
the market doesn't like What it hears, it could utilize that as
a catalyst to try to push things back down again. So there's a great big,
huge rebound rally today on Friday, but we
can't feel that we're completely out of the woods yet. The tentacles still look
stretched and there's still some work that needs to be done. So we'll just watch all that
closely and look to do some buying on any more weakness. That's what we've

(07:40):
been doing, trying to buy on weakness. I didn't make any big portfolio moves
this week just because I didn't see quite enough
pain in some of the areas that I'm interested in. to make a
move. And I still believe that that pain could come. There's
still plenty of opportunity for it. But hey, we
had an awesome week. I mean, an awesome week, especially compared to

(08:00):
the market. So it doesn't bother me one bit. Like I said, I think I've
been saying this pretty much consistently over the last few weeks. The market wants
to rip higher, so be it. We're going to do great. We've got a very
small amount of cash on hand. So if the market does give us opportunities,
there's some stuff I want to buy, but We're not dependent on it. As
a matter of fact, the model being used by the majority of our clients at BIG is
up nearly double the market year to date. So we're not in a

(08:24):
place where we need the market to go down to play catch up. We're in really good shape.
So look, you know, that's really what I've got for you this week. Not a whole lot else to
talk about. Jay Powell was a star of the show. OK. And
all week long, anticipation was to the negative. And then he
delivered a surprise to the positive just
by indicating that he has an open mind to changing policy

(08:45):
and potentially cutting rates in September. But remember, folks, there's
a lot of data points, a lot of information yet to come between
now and then. And good news will quickly become bad
news, especially in regards to jobs, if we get a
good jobs number. So we will wait and see. We're ready to go either
way. I like where we sit. So between now and next few minutes, you're thinking about your future

(09:06):
long term goals, all the things you want to do. with
you and your money. Maybe it is drop a new engine
into your race car, Roger. Hey, maybe it's take
that big trip, buy that second house. You know what your goals are. Don't
just think about it. Think big. Think BIG. And
Thank you for listening to this week's edition of the Big Money Report with

(09:30):
your host, David Boothe, President and Financial Advisor at
BIG Investment Services. For more information on BIG and
how you can access their planning and investment management services, visit
them at abigplan.com. That's abigplan.com. Or
call them toll free at 866-946-PLAN. That's 866-946-7526. The

(09:54):
foregoing content reflects the opinions of David Boothe and Boothe Investment Group,
Inc., and is subject to change at any time without notice. There's no
guarantee that the statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will
prove to be correct. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only
and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding
the purchase or sale of any security. All investing involves risk, including the
potential for loss of principal. There is no guarantee that any investment plan or