Week Ending 08_29_2025 Stock Market Recap

How can a stock like Nvidia beat on the topline, beat on the bottom line, raise expectations and yet go lower impacting the rest of the market? TUNE IN TO FIND OUT!

Episode Transcript

(00:34):
Hello and welcome to
this week's edition of the Big Money Report. I'm your
host, David Boothe, President and Chief Investment Officer at BIG
Investment Services. That's BIG, Boothe Investment
Group. We're a full-service financial advisory based out of Dover, Delaware,
serving clients all across America. And

(00:56):
you can read all about us at abigplan.com. That's www.abigplan.com. We
like to put the show together once a week just to give you a recap of the week behind
and a peek at the week and weeks to come, trying to keep
you up to speed with you and your money. And we're glad you're with us
today. It is Friday, August 29th, 2025, the

(01:17):
end of another month as far as trading is concerned, heading
into the final stretch of the year. Big shout out to Jim,
showing his little love there on Google with a nice Google review. Thank you, Jim. Tom,
Dev, Sean. I think Green Bay called Sean. They want their quarterback back.
Please take him. And Brian, who listens at two times
the speed. Brian, Dave, You guys really

(01:40):
get me with this two times the speed thing. I almost feel like it's a challenge. I
feel like I got to talk really, really fast and talk about all kinds of things. I've got the efficiencies and earnings reports,
all these different types of things. See if you can rewind the thing and start all over again to see
if you missed anything. So you make me want to do that just to challenge you,
right? Anyway, it's okay. Look, we're glad you're tuning in.
We don't care how fast you listen to us, how you do it. Even if

(02:00):
you make me sound like a chipmunk, that's quite all right with us. So let's
talk about the numbers this week and what's going on. Look, the
major indices drifted a little bit lower this week outside of small caps. No
surprise there. Things have been looking a little stretched. We've been talking
about that, but all told, it was pretty tame. Dow
Jones down 0.2% this week. S&P 500 down 0.1%. The

(02:21):
Nasdaq composite down 0.2%. And the Russell small cap
index bucking the trend up 0.2% on the week. Taking
out the volatility index, the VIX up 8% this
week. I think traders are starting to brace themselves for some
potential volatility. We got some news coming out next week
that could shake markets up. We've got a federal meeting coming up in a couple of weeks. And

(02:42):
I think we're seeing the VIX spike a little bit because they're just trying to brace
themselves and buy some protection on their stocks with
options. Taking a look at the sectors. Actually, before
we do that, how about the bond market, the TLT, long-term bond
ETF, down half a percent this week, still no
traction there on bonds, still down on the year, almost 1%. And

(03:04):
we take a look at all the different sectors. Most everything was down this week except
energy and banks. Energy was up 2.5%, financials
up 0.8, tech was flat on the week. Communication
Services up 0.7. So everything else was down 1 to 2%. And
then gold and silver, gold up 2.4% this
week, silver up 2.4% this week. Of

(03:25):
course, we have Kinross Gold in our models, KGC,
and it responded in kind, up 6.6% on the week. It's up 125% year-to-date. We've
talked about it many times in the past. These gold miners usually
can give you two to four X the move of the metal.
You look at gold, it's up 31% on the year. You look at Kenross up

(03:46):
125% on the year. So gold continues to press higher.
I continue to watch it closely. There's moments I think I'm gonna pull the
trigger and just exit the trade, but it just continues to be really
resilient and continues to climb higher. And it's provided just a great buffer
to the market when things aren't looking so hot there as far as the market's concerned.
So what's moving markets this week? Well, the big thing was NVIDIA earnings, the

(04:09):
big chip maker, NVIDIA. We talked about it on last week's podcast. They're
going to be reporting this week. They did. It was a good report. They
beat on the top line. They beat on the bottom line and they raised their guidance,
but the stock went down. I've had clients ask
me this over the years, David, why does that happen? Why is
it that a company can beat all expectations, raise

(04:30):
their guidance, and the stocks still go down, it doesn't make
much sense. Well, I can tell you why. NVIDIA did
raise their guidance, but guess what? They didn't raise it as
much as they did last time or the time before. It's
the delta, the delta, the delta, the rate of
change. This is why we spend beaucoup amounts of money with

(04:51):
Earnings Scout to track not just earnings, that information
is all over the place. I get it coming to me from multiple sources. It's
not earnings expectations that I'm necessarily all that concerned about
as much as I am the rate of change in earnings expectations,
because the market is forward-looking. It tries to beat everybody to
the punch. It tries to get ahead of what's coming next. So

(05:13):
if you have a stock company that's beating on their earnings and they're raising
guidance 10%, and then the next quarter they're raising guidance 12%, and
then the next quarter they only raise guidance 5%, Well, then
alarms start to go off in the markets under the surface where
folks paying attention to that sort of thing. And they start to get ahead of what
they think might be a change in the trend. So

(05:35):
Nvidia, although they had a great quarter, they raised guidance,
but not as much as they did in quarters past. I think the market's reacting
a bit to that. I think it's a great company. I think it'll go higher. Some
folks say, David, why don't you own NVIDIA in our
models? Why don't we have NVIDIA? I'll tell you why. Number one,
we don't have to have it, right? If you're up 18% on the year

(05:55):
and the market's up nine, it's proof that you don't have to have NVIDIA
to do very well as far as returns are concerned. But more
importantly, the reason why we don't have it is I don't trust
the concentration of their revenues. I've been tracking this for
a while, a lion's share of their revenue has been coming from four customers,
four customers. And then it was reported this week that 40% of

(06:18):
the revenue is coming from two customers, two. That
is a dangerous game to play because if there's any sort
of change with those customers and those orders, if
they shift some orders to a competitor, if
they develop their own chip, If they just decide to cool
their jets on this spending, then that could be a big hit for NVIDIA. And

(06:39):
that's why I don't like it. We've got AMD. Lisa Su is a fantastic CEO.
Look, it's up 35% on the year and NVIDIA is up 29%. So
I like AMD. It's more diversified and they've got more
exposure to data centers and other things. So they're not just fully concentrated
on AI chips. And that's why we've been working with that one.
That can always change. There's been a couple of times over the past year, Nvidia

(07:02):
dropped. I was watching it, waiting for a certain price target to buy, just
didn't quite get there. And I kicked myself for not pulling the trigger because it's
done very well. But look, as I said, we don't have to have it to
make a great return. What other things were driving the market this week? Well,
you have some good economic data. There is a second
reading on the GDP number was 3.1%. And that could change, but 3.1% GDP, the

(07:22):
economy is still growing. And
I will say that when you listen to the retailers that reported this week,
it sounds like the consumer is spending. I mean, there were good earnings reports
this week from the retail sector, for the most part anyway, tariffs a
factor, but not something that's crushing their numbers in any way, shape
or form. So I thought those numbers were pretty positive. So

(07:44):
those are some other things that are kind of pushing markets around this week. Look, there's
this story right now with Lisa Cook and the Federal Reserve
Board and all of that. Look, if you do something wrong, if
you cheat to get a loan, then yeah, it should be looked into and
it should be dealt with. No one's above the law. On the
other hand, I have to say it is very uncomfortable to

(08:05):
think that the Fed is being politicized. But
let me say this. I think the Fed's brought some of that on themselves. The Fed's been playing
politics for quite some time. So it's kind of created this space that
we're in at the moment. And I think it's a bad spot to be in. We do not.
We do not want to become Turkey We want an independent Fed.
We do not want a Fed that's going to be driven by political factors.

(08:26):
It's a dangerous place to be. I understand the arguments of both sides. I
do think we could benefit from lower rates, especially in terms of
our debt service. I think it's important. And we could probably stand a little bit higher
inflation to do that. Nonetheless, this is all playing out.
I think right now it's a lot of noise. I don't think it's a real driver in the market because
at the end of the day, it's not changing the nature, underlying foundation

(08:47):
of our system completely. Aside from that, let me tell you what else moved
the market. And this is what happened on Friday. It was the PCE number,
the personal consumption expenditures. It's the number
one metric the Fed focuses on for inflation. And
the numbers were in line with the core year
over year, just a touch hotter. And look, the market did

(09:08):
not wanna see that. The market really wanted to see a
number that was better than expectation, that was lower than
what everyone was expecting, because it would give the Fed more
cover to cut rates. That's been the narrative. The
market, since Jackson Hole of a week ago, is expecting the
Fed to cut rates. And if anything disrupts that narrative, watch

(09:29):
out, okay? Watch out. So today, the PCE number, not
quite as cool, I think, as the market was hoping for. Next
week, we've got another big one. We've got non-farm payrolls for August next
Friday. And if that number is good, I know this is twisted,
but if the jobs number is good, the market's going to hate it. The
market's not going to like it. The market's probably going to throw a major temper tantrum.

(09:51):
I know it's kind of lousy that good news is bad news when
it comes to the market, but if that jobs number is strong, then
that is less of a reason for the Fed to move forward with
cutting rates in September, and the market is going to try to
beat everyone to the punch. It's going to try to get ahead of that potential. Now,
let's say the jobs number's okay, ho-hum, whatever, then all eyes are

(10:12):
going to be on September 17th. That's when the Fed's going to make its decision. Listen,
I will say this, it can go a number of different ways. We can talk more about
it as we get closer. If the Fed does cut, but they take a
hawkish stance, in other words, they cut by a quarter point, but they say, hey, don't
expect anything else from us until the data proves that we should cut further.
The market will probably react negatively, even though it gets the

(10:34):
cut. If they don't get a cut, but the Fed is dovish, let's
say they say, you know, we're not quite ready yet, but you know, we could be ready next month. Things
are looking like we're getting really, really close and we're almost close to agreeing on
this. The market might actually respond positively. So there's scenarios
that could play out where the market doesn't get what it's expecting, but
it's more expected for the future or less expected for the future and

(10:56):
reacts accordingly. all these things we'll be watching. Look,
I think September can be sloppy. It normally is sloppy. We
got a little bit of cash on hand, been waiting to do some buying. I'm starting
to see some things are looking attractive and looking interesting. So I'm
hoping that market pushes a little bit lower here in the coming weeks. Some
of these things do upset the apple cart because that gives
us an opportunity to step in and buy. Look, I had a friend that said, this

(11:19):
market feels like a mountain climber hanging on by his fingernails in the middle of a blizzard.
To some extent, to some extent, but you know, I'm not really expecting a
major blizzard. I think that the market has accomplished certain things in recent months
that definitely point higher into 2026. But I
do think that this mountain climber could slip back a little bit and get knocked
down a few yards to say the least. And before we resume our

(11:40):
climb higher, and that's what we'll be watching for. And if we get it, hey,
I welcome it because we can step in and do some buying. So look,
I'm going to go and wrap up. Between now and the next meeting, as you're thinking about your future, your long-term goals,
all the things you want to do with you and your money. Maybe
it's retire a little early. Retire on a
boat and cruise down the ICW to Florida at that time of year.

(12:00):
It's coming up. Hey, maybe it is take that big trip, buy
that second house. You know what your goals are. Don't just think about it. Think
big. Think B-I-G. And I will talk to you
Thank you for listening to this week's edition of the Big Money Report with
your host, David Boothe, President and Financial Advisor at
BIG Investment Services. For more information on BIG and

(12:23):
how you can access their planning and investment management services, visit
them at abigplan.com. That's abigplan.com. Or
call them toll free at 866-946-PLAN. That's 866-946-7526. The
foregoing content reflects the opinions of David Boothe and Boothe Investment Group

(12:44):
Incorporated and is subject to change at any time without notice. There's no
guarantee that the statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will
prove to be correct. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only
and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding
the purchase or sale of any security. All investing involves risk, including the
potential for loss of principal. There is no guarantee that any investment plan or