September 6, 2025 • 14 mins
Another terrible jobs number impacted the markets this week and one asset that’s headed to the moon might be headed back to earth. What asset? TUNE IN TO FIND OUT!
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
(00:34):
Hello and welcome to
this week's edition of the Big Money Report. I'm your
host, David Boothe, President and Chief Investment Officer at BIG
Investment Services. That's BIG, Boothe Investment
Group. We're a full-service financial advisory based in Dover, Delaware,
serving clients all across America. And
(00:56):
you can read all about us at abigplan.com. That's www.abigplan.com. I
like to put the show together once a week just to give you a recap of the week behind
and a peek at the week and weeks to come. Trying to
keep you up to speed with you and your money. And we're glad you're with us today.
It is Friday, September 5th, 2025. Shortened
(01:16):
week this week as we had Labor Day weekend. Hope you had a great
one. I want to start with a big shout out to those listening around the world. Take
a look at our podcast stats. We've got a big following in Canada, Australia,
United Kingdom, Kuwait, all of our military over there, Spain,
Mexico, China, Switzerland, even Barbados getting
in on the action and, you know, some small ones, Belgium, Singapore,
(01:39):
et cetera. So, hey, thank you all for tuning in. And look, I got to
give a big, big, big, super duper shout out
to all the folks in Delaware. who voted us
as the number one financial planning investment firm there with the Delaware
State News, the stars of Delaware. Some members of our team had
the opportunity to go out to their event at King Coal Farm. What
(01:59):
a lovely venue. I've been there before. Great if you want to do a wedding, corporate
event, whatever, beautiful place. It just means a lot to us
that our clients are so supportive. We're in the running with
national firms, you know, Merrill Lynch, Edward Jones, these big national firms.
And for us to come out on top year in and year out, just means
the world to us. So thank you, Delaware. Hey, and look for the rest of
(02:20):
you, all you folks out there in Canada and Australia, Spain
and whatnot, Barbados, what gives, huh? We've not won anything there.
Help us out here, will you? I'm just kidding. All
right. Hey, let's jump into the numbers. Talk about what's going on this
week. Markets, kind of sloppy all
over the place. They finished mostly on the positive. The Dow
(02:42):
Jones was down about three-tenths this week. The S&P 500 up
three-tenths. The NASDAQ actually showing some strength there,
up 1.1% this week. And the Russell small cap
index up 1% this week. Looking at some other data
points, the volatility index down 1.1%, coming
in at a 15.1, so still at a relatively complacent
(03:04):
level there. The long-term bonds is measured by the
TLT finally getting some
traction up 2.2% this week. Almost all
of it happened today on Friday. I will tell you why in a moment. It was
at 1.6% today, up 2.2% on the week and just turned positive. On
the year, here in September, long-term bonds now up
(03:27):
1.4% on the year. They have been struggling in a mighty way.
And we dig deeper and look into the different
sectors of the market and what did what this week. You had utilities were
down about 1% energy down big, down 3.3%. OPEC had
some news. They're pushing their production levels higher. Energy is
not responding well. As a matter of fact, I was looking at some technicals on energy
(03:49):
with one of the firms that we do a lot of work with. And when
energy has done what it's done in the last couple of weeks, it usually
hasn't performed very well over the next six to 12 months. So we're going to
be taking a hard look at our energy exposure here, moving into
the beginning of next week, maybe making some changes there. But
energy down 3.3% this week, financials down 1.7%, not doing a
(04:10):
whole lot this week. Mostly that happened today here on Friday. Everything
else was kind of flat to up a little bit. Communication services,
that was up a lot, 2.9%. You can thank Google for that. They
actually won an antitrust lawsuit and
therefore the stock spiked in a major way. But then here on Friday,
they are being fined again by Europe for antitrust measures.
(04:32):
And Trump administration is talking about taking some retaliatory actions. We'll
see what happens there. And what about the medals? Could Gravy,
man, gold up 4% and
silver up 2.8% for the week.
So moving strong. Of course, we've got Kinross Gold. I've been talking about that.
It was up 5.8% on the week. It's up 138% on the year. Look,
(04:55):
I got to tell you, it's looking so stretched. This gold trade,
it's getting up to the stratosphere here where the oxygen is starting to
get really thin. So you might be seeing some changes there moving
forward. As a matter of fact, you might be seeing quite a few changes on some things here moving
forward because, well, let's talk about the news and I'll tell you why. A couple of
things. First of all, getting started this week. markets got knocked
(05:15):
around a little bit because some federal court claimed that
the Trump tariffs were illegal, and that caused a
little bit of chaos in the market. I mentioned that to you, what, way back in
the spring. I said, yeah, I'm not really sure how this could be legal. If
one man can just put 100% tariffs on another country, I
mean, he could just do that to everybody and just shut down the whole world. It seems like
(05:36):
a little bit of a stretch to me to have that much power, but I'm
not a law scholar, I'm just trying to make you money. So anyway, the
court did say that it's illegal. Now, what's interesting is,
what I find kind of funny here, is the market hated all the tariffs earlier
in the year, had this big conniption fit, and now you got
over $300 billion coming into U.S. Treasury kind of helping to pay
(05:57):
our bills to some extent, and the economy and the markets have held up relatively well
in spite of all that. Now the market doesn't want to give it up, right? It's like, hey, wait
a minute, this is kind of working. We'd hate to see that all go away.
So I'm sure they're going to fast track this to the Supreme Court. It'll
be interesting to see how it shakes out. I find it unfortunate on
one hand, I think Trump has done a pretty good job getting to where he is today
(06:18):
as far as the tariffs are concerned. And to see all that kind of blown
up would be unfortunate. But at the same time, I'm not sure if Congress
needs to be involved or what have you. They're the ones that are supposed to hold the purse string.
So going to be interesting moving forward. Earnings really haven't
been a big deal. A couple little things here and there, but economic data,
I've been watching that pretty close. Some of that's been a little bit sloppy, but
(06:38):
the big number of the week came today on Friday, and
that was the August nonfarm payrolls report. It
was a lousy number, 22,000 jobs. Now
I mentioned last week, if it was a lousy number, the market would probably rip higher. Well,
it started out that way, opened up this morning, hitting a record high,
just coming out of the gate, shooting sky high. But
(07:00):
I think that the concerns about the economy, I
mean, look, we had some revisions to put June at a negative. June
actually lost jobs, negative job growth in June, and
only 22,000 for August. I mean, I have a country of 350 million people, 22,000 jobs is anemic. at
best. So markets seem to start to maybe get
a little bit more concerned, and bad news actually became bad news. By
(07:24):
midday, the market started to roll over and go down, except
for small cap stocks. They continue to stay very strong, up
half a percent on the day because small caps are
going to benefit the most from rate cuts, and that's what the market's sniffing out
there. You also saw other pockets of the market
do well today. Home builders did very well
(07:46):
today. Things like Rocket Mortgage had
a really big day, up 6% on the day, Rocket
Mortgage. So You saw stocks that are going to do well
with rate cuts, perform well on the day, but the
overall major indices, Dow, NASDAQ, and S&P down
on the day, but the small cap index holding up because they do stand to
(08:07):
benefit pretty well from rate cuts. So what does all this mean? What's
the Fed going to do? How's the market going to respond? A lot of questions out
there. A couple of things. One, we got some big, big data points next week. We've
got consumer price index. We've got producer price index. These are big
inflation numbers. And if they are hot, the
market's going to probably flip out a little bit about that. Because look, if
(08:27):
they're hot, we could be entering into a period of stagflation. That
is not a very nice place to be. That's when you have low
growth with higher inflation. Now, the growth
has been OK as far as GDP is concerned. The economy is showing
good GDP numbers. But if these labor numbers are any indication, then
some things could be softening here and there. So we'll be watching
(08:49):
those numbers really close. The market could react to those next week. And
then all eyes will be on the Fed on September 17th. Look, this market
is probably shaping up to buy the rumor,
sell the news type of event. In other words, if it keeps pushing higher
here, as we approach it September 17th, and
Fed Chair Jay Powell does not say what the market wants to
(09:10):
hear in full, because the market wants to hear folks, I'll tell you right now,
it wants to hear a minimum of three cuts. That's what the market wants. A
quarter point is laughable to the market. That's not what it's looking for.
It's looking for at least three rate cuts, about
0.75% is what it's looking for. And if it doesn't feel confident
that that's where we're headed over the next few months, then you could see a
(09:31):
pretty negative reaction, which would also line up seasonally. The last two
weeks of September tend to be pretty lousy. The first few days of
September tend to be pretty good right around the holiday. So we'll
watch all of that. Look, a couple of other things I'm going to point out. If you've got
a mortgage, If you have a mortgage that you just
took out in the last two, three years, you're up in that 7% range.
(09:52):
Keep your eyes peeled. We're moving down towards 5% here pretty
quickly, down to 6.2% on 30-year mortgages today. So
an opportunity may be coming for you to refinance in
the coming months. So keep an eye on that. If a recession comes about, then
you can really have a great opportunity to refinance. And look, we've been saying since
the beginning of the year that our outlook is that there's a
(10:13):
higher risk for recession in 2026. Just looking at
the cyclical nature of it, that's something to be concerned about. Look, when you look at
history, going back prior to the Great Depression, you
go back to 1855, move your way up to
1940, we had about three or four recessions every decade,
like one every couple of years, substantial ones at that.
(10:37):
Now from the great depression on, once we started to monkey around
with trying to manage the economy, print money, all that sort of
stuff, it's been a little bit different. We've been averaging about two per
decade. And look, the last one we had was 2020. I
do think that we're on borrowed time. How about that?
I don't think that it's imminent, but I think that we, anyway,
(10:57):
here at BIG, we're going to just stay buffered for the unexpected moving
forward. All the easy money from 2022 today has been made. 2022 is
a terrible year. The easy money has been made. Moving forward, this
risk is going to stay in front of us. And I've been watching different things. You
know, looking at the Fed recession, the smooth recession probabilities,
it's been inching higher. These numbers, these job numbers, they
(11:20):
don't look that great. There's definitely some concerns here
and there. On top of that, I saw a report this week that was a little bit alarming in
regards to the stock market valuation. When you take all of
the different valuation metrics, PE, the Cape Shiller, all
these different types of metrics that are out there to value the market, it
is at the highest point that it has ever been on some metrics, even
(11:41):
higher than it was before the tech crash back in 2000. The market
can certainly go much higher. Don't get me wrong. That can change. Earnings
can continue to rise, et cetera. What I'm trying to point out here is that
we want to take a very measured and disciplined approach moving forward because
I don't fully trust what the future holds. I do believe this market
goes higher going into 2026 and go lower over
(12:03):
the next couple of weeks, but it definitely is pointing higher to me
going into 2026. But moving through next
year, you just don't know and there's a lot of little
things creeping up here and there that have my attention. So that's how
we're going to be managing money moving forward is just being more disciplined. If
it means we make a little bit less money, I'm okay with that. I would
(12:24):
rather make a little less and be prepared for the unexpected at
this stage of the business cycle than to
be swinging for the fences and get burned because you depend on
us to manage your life savings. And we take that very seriously.
So look, I'm going to wrap up, but between now and next we meet, as you're thinking about
your future, your long-term goals, all the things you
(12:46):
want to do with you and your money, maybe it's travel to
Canada, Australia, UK, Kuwait, Spain, Mexico, China, Switzerland,
Barbados, or Belgium, Singapore, Bahrain, Pakistan, India,
and Germany. Thanks to all the listeners out there. Hey, you
know what your goals are. Don't just think about it. Think big, think BIG.
Hello and welcome to
this week's edition of the Big Money Report. I'm your
host, David Boothe, President and Chief Investment Officer at BIG
Investment Services. That's BIG, Boothe Investment
Group. We're a full-service financial advisory based in Dover, Delaware,
serving clients all across America. And
(00:56):
you can read all about us at abigplan.com. That's www.abigplan.com. I
like to put the show together once a week just to give you a recap of the week behind
and a peek at the week and weeks to come. Trying to
keep you up to speed with you and your money. And we're glad you're with us today.
It is Friday, September 5th, 2025. Shortened
(01:16):
week this week as we had Labor Day weekend. Hope you had a great
one. I want to start with a big shout out to those listening around the world. Take
a look at our podcast stats. We've got a big following in Canada, Australia,
United Kingdom, Kuwait, all of our military over there, Spain,
Mexico, China, Switzerland, even Barbados getting
in on the action and, you know, some small ones, Belgium, Singapore,
(01:39):
et cetera. So, hey, thank you all for tuning in. And look, I got to
give a big, big, big, super duper shout out
to all the folks in Delaware. who voted us
as the number one financial planning investment firm there with the Delaware
State News, the stars of Delaware. Some members of our team had
the opportunity to go out to their event at King Coal Farm. What
(01:59):
a lovely venue. I've been there before. Great if you want to do a wedding, corporate
event, whatever, beautiful place. It just means a lot to us
that our clients are so supportive. We're in the running with
national firms, you know, Merrill Lynch, Edward Jones, these big national firms.
And for us to come out on top year in and year out, just means
the world to us. So thank you, Delaware. Hey, and look for the rest of
(02:20):
you, all you folks out there in Canada and Australia, Spain
and whatnot, Barbados, what gives, huh? We've not won anything there.
Help us out here, will you? I'm just kidding. All
right. Hey, let's jump into the numbers. Talk about what's going on this
week. Markets, kind of sloppy all
over the place. They finished mostly on the positive. The Dow
(02:42):
Jones was down about three-tenths this week. The S&P 500 up
three-tenths. The NASDAQ actually showing some strength there,
up 1.1% this week. And the Russell small cap
index up 1% this week. Looking at some other data
points, the volatility index down 1.1%, coming
in at a 15.1, so still at a relatively complacent
(03:04):
level there. The long-term bonds is measured by the
TLT finally getting some
traction up 2.2% this week. Almost all
of it happened today on Friday. I will tell you why in a moment. It was
at 1.6% today, up 2.2% on the week and just turned positive. On
the year, here in September, long-term bonds now up
(03:27):
1.4% on the year. They have been struggling in a mighty way.
And we dig deeper and look into the different
sectors of the market and what did what this week. You had utilities were
down about 1% energy down big, down 3.3%. OPEC had
some news. They're pushing their production levels higher. Energy is
not responding well. As a matter of fact, I was looking at some technicals on energy
(03:49):
with one of the firms that we do a lot of work with. And when
energy has done what it's done in the last couple of weeks, it usually
hasn't performed very well over the next six to 12 months. So we're going to
be taking a hard look at our energy exposure here, moving into
the beginning of next week, maybe making some changes there. But
energy down 3.3% this week, financials down 1.7%, not doing a
(04:10):
whole lot this week. Mostly that happened today here on Friday. Everything
else was kind of flat to up a little bit. Communication services,
that was up a lot, 2.9%. You can thank Google for that. They
actually won an antitrust lawsuit and
therefore the stock spiked in a major way. But then here on Friday,
they are being fined again by Europe for antitrust measures.
(04:32):
And Trump administration is talking about taking some retaliatory actions. We'll
see what happens there. And what about the medals? Could Gravy,
man, gold up 4% and
silver up 2.8% for the week.
So moving strong. Of course, we've got Kinross Gold. I've been talking about that.
It was up 5.8% on the week. It's up 138% on the year. Look,
(04:55):
I got to tell you, it's looking so stretched. This gold trade,
it's getting up to the stratosphere here where the oxygen is starting to
get really thin. So you might be seeing some changes there moving
forward. As a matter of fact, you might be seeing quite a few changes on some things here moving
forward because, well, let's talk about the news and I'll tell you why. A couple of
things. First of all, getting started this week. markets got knocked
(05:15):
around a little bit because some federal court claimed that
the Trump tariffs were illegal, and that caused a
little bit of chaos in the market. I mentioned that to you, what, way back in
the spring. I said, yeah, I'm not really sure how this could be legal. If
one man can just put 100% tariffs on another country, I
mean, he could just do that to everybody and just shut down the whole world. It seems like
(05:36):
a little bit of a stretch to me to have that much power, but I'm
not a law scholar, I'm just trying to make you money. So anyway, the
court did say that it's illegal. Now, what's interesting is,
what I find kind of funny here, is the market hated all the tariffs earlier
in the year, had this big conniption fit, and now you got
over $300 billion coming into U.S. Treasury kind of helping to pay
(05:57):
our bills to some extent, and the economy and the markets have held up relatively well
in spite of all that. Now the market doesn't want to give it up, right? It's like, hey, wait
a minute, this is kind of working. We'd hate to see that all go away.
So I'm sure they're going to fast track this to the Supreme Court. It'll
be interesting to see how it shakes out. I find it unfortunate on
one hand, I think Trump has done a pretty good job getting to where he is today
(06:18):
as far as the tariffs are concerned. And to see all that kind of blown
up would be unfortunate. But at the same time, I'm not sure if Congress
needs to be involved or what have you. They're the ones that are supposed to hold the purse string.
So going to be interesting moving forward. Earnings really haven't
been a big deal. A couple little things here and there, but economic data,
I've been watching that pretty close. Some of that's been a little bit sloppy, but
(06:38):
the big number of the week came today on Friday, and
that was the August nonfarm payrolls report. It
was a lousy number, 22,000 jobs. Now
I mentioned last week, if it was a lousy number, the market would probably rip higher. Well,
it started out that way, opened up this morning, hitting a record high,
just coming out of the gate, shooting sky high. But
(07:00):
I think that the concerns about the economy, I
mean, look, we had some revisions to put June at a negative. June
actually lost jobs, negative job growth in June, and
only 22,000 for August. I mean, I have a country of 350 million people, 22,000 jobs is anemic. at
best. So markets seem to start to maybe get
a little bit more concerned, and bad news actually became bad news. By
(07:24):
midday, the market started to roll over and go down, except
for small cap stocks. They continue to stay very strong, up
half a percent on the day because small caps are
going to benefit the most from rate cuts, and that's what the market's sniffing out
there. You also saw other pockets of the market
do well today. Home builders did very well
(07:46):
today. Things like Rocket Mortgage had
a really big day, up 6% on the day, Rocket
Mortgage. So You saw stocks that are going to do well
with rate cuts, perform well on the day, but the
overall major indices, Dow, NASDAQ, and S&P down
on the day, but the small cap index holding up because they do stand to
(08:07):
benefit pretty well from rate cuts. So what does all this mean? What's
the Fed going to do? How's the market going to respond? A lot of questions out
there. A couple of things. One, we got some big, big data points next week. We've
got consumer price index. We've got producer price index. These are big
inflation numbers. And if they are hot, the
market's going to probably flip out a little bit about that. Because look, if
(08:27):
they're hot, we could be entering into a period of stagflation. That
is not a very nice place to be. That's when you have low
growth with higher inflation. Now, the growth
has been OK as far as GDP is concerned. The economy is showing
good GDP numbers. But if these labor numbers are any indication, then
some things could be softening here and there. So we'll be watching
(08:49):
those numbers really close. The market could react to those next week. And
then all eyes will be on the Fed on September 17th. Look, this market
is probably shaping up to buy the rumor,
sell the news type of event. In other words, if it keeps pushing higher
here, as we approach it September 17th, and
Fed Chair Jay Powell does not say what the market wants to
(09:10):
hear in full, because the market wants to hear folks, I'll tell you right now,
it wants to hear a minimum of three cuts. That's what the market wants. A
quarter point is laughable to the market. That's not what it's looking for.
It's looking for at least three rate cuts, about
0.75% is what it's looking for. And if it doesn't feel confident
that that's where we're headed over the next few months, then you could see a
(09:31):
pretty negative reaction, which would also line up seasonally. The last two
weeks of September tend to be pretty lousy. The first few days of
September tend to be pretty good right around the holiday. So we'll
watch all of that. Look, a couple of other things I'm going to point out. If you've got
a mortgage, If you have a mortgage that you just
took out in the last two, three years, you're up in that 7% range.
(09:52):
Keep your eyes peeled. We're moving down towards 5% here pretty
quickly, down to 6.2% on 30-year mortgages today. So
an opportunity may be coming for you to refinance in
the coming months. So keep an eye on that. If a recession comes about, then
you can really have a great opportunity to refinance. And look, we've been saying since
the beginning of the year that our outlook is that there's a
(10:13):
higher risk for recession in 2026. Just looking at
the cyclical nature of it, that's something to be concerned about. Look, when you look at
history, going back prior to the Great Depression, you
go back to 1855, move your way up to
1940, we had about three or four recessions every decade,
like one every couple of years, substantial ones at that.
(10:37):
Now from the great depression on, once we started to monkey around
with trying to manage the economy, print money, all that sort of
stuff, it's been a little bit different. We've been averaging about two per
decade. And look, the last one we had was 2020. I
do think that we're on borrowed time. How about that?
I don't think that it's imminent, but I think that we, anyway,
(10:57):
here at BIG, we're going to just stay buffered for the unexpected moving
forward. All the easy money from 2022 today has been made. 2022 is
a terrible year. The easy money has been made. Moving forward, this
risk is going to stay in front of us. And I've been watching different things. You
know, looking at the Fed recession, the smooth recession probabilities,
it's been inching higher. These numbers, these job numbers, they
(11:20):
don't look that great. There's definitely some concerns here
and there. On top of that, I saw a report this week that was a little bit alarming in
regards to the stock market valuation. When you take all of
the different valuation metrics, PE, the Cape Shiller, all
these different types of metrics that are out there to value the market, it
is at the highest point that it has ever been on some metrics, even
(11:41):
higher than it was before the tech crash back in 2000. The market
can certainly go much higher. Don't get me wrong. That can change. Earnings
can continue to rise, et cetera. What I'm trying to point out here is that
we want to take a very measured and disciplined approach moving forward because
I don't fully trust what the future holds. I do believe this market
goes higher going into 2026 and go lower over
(12:03):
the next couple of weeks, but it definitely is pointing higher to me
going into 2026. But moving through next
year, you just don't know and there's a lot of little
things creeping up here and there that have my attention. So that's how
we're going to be managing money moving forward is just being more disciplined. If
it means we make a little bit less money, I'm okay with that. I would
(12:24):
rather make a little less and be prepared for the unexpected at
this stage of the business cycle than to
be swinging for the fences and get burned because you depend on
us to manage your life savings. And we take that very seriously.
So look, I'm going to wrap up, but between now and next we meet, as you're thinking about
your future, your long-term goals, all the things you
(12:46):
want to do with you and your money, maybe it's travel to
Canada, Australia, UK, Kuwait, Spain, Mexico, China, Switzerland,
Barbados, or Belgium, Singapore, Bahrain, Pakistan, India,
and Germany. Thanks to all the listeners out there. Hey, you
know what your goals are. Don't just think about it. Think big, think BIG.
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