Episode Transcript
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Hello and welcome
to this week's edition of the Big Money Report. I'm
your host, David Boothe, President and Financial Advisor at
BIG Investment Services. That's BIG, Boothe
Investment Group. We're a full-service financial advisory based out
of Dover, Delaware, serving clients all across this
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great country. And you can read all about us at abigplan.com. That's
www.abigplan.com. I
like to put the show together once a week just to give you a recap of
the week behind and a peek at the week and weeks to come.
Trying to keep you up to speed with you and your money, and we're glad you're with
us today. It is Friday, September 13th, 2024. A
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little shout out to Karen. Good seeing you this week. And Drew, appreciate everyone
that tunes in and listens from week to week. Just means a lot to us that you're
using the tool and getting something out of it. So thank you so much. Let's jump into the
numbers. It was a really solid week across the board, a volatile week.
I mean, it was all over the place, down, up. But it finished up pretty
significantly. Dow Jones up 2.5% this week. S&P
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500 up 4% this week. But keep in mind, it's still negative on
the month. All the indices are still negative on the month. So it's a big move
up, but it's awesome really low levels. NASDAQ up 5.9% this
week and the Russell small cap index up 4.35. Looking
at the volatility index, as you might expect, it was down quite
a bit this week, down 26%. We're sitting at a
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16.5 on the VIX. That's the volatility index. And long-term bonds this
week, a little bit of move to the upside, not too much, a
0.8% for the week. When you take a look at the sectors, it was really the growth-oriented
stuff that really came on strong this week. We saw semiconductors
up 10.1%, retail sales up 4.1%. Technology
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as a whole up 8.1% on the week, communication services up
3.7, real estate 3.6, materials 3.1, industrial 3.7, healthcare
is a little bit more conservative, only up 1.4, consumer staples more
conservative, only up 1.1. And utilities, even
though they tend to be more defensive and more conservative, they started a
solid week, too, up 3% for the week on utilities. So
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what moved the markets this week? Oh, before I get there, how about gold and
silver? Gosh, they're going to get upset. We can't leave them out. Gold
was up 3.49% this week, and silver, high
host silver up 9.9% on the week.
So it had a pretty good move there. So what moved the markets? Well, mainly
it's this economic data is creating a
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bit of a debate on whether the Fed is going to cut a quarter
of a percent next week or half a percent next week. So we
got some inflation numbers started this week at the CPI number. The
month over month was a bit, a little bit hotter than expected. The market did not
like it. And I tell you what, we have some wild volatility this
week. It was a Tuesday, Wednesday market was down one and a half percent, but
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then it turned around and finished up on the day. I mean, just been some really crazy trading
this week in the markets. But anyway, the CPI number kind
of causes knee-jerk reaction for everything to sell off and go down a lot. Things
did work their way back up again. Then with the producer price index, the
next day, the wholesale numbers, they were pretty much in line and down
into the twos for year over year. It was good to see that. But
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again, these numbers that were a little bit hotter on the CPI caused
the market to think that maybe the Fed is definitely
not going to cut half a percent this week, that our best chance would
be 0.25%. But then towards the end of the week,
there are a couple of financial reports that came out that were saying that the
Fed hasn't closed the door on the idea of a half a percent cut.
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We had a former Fed board member come out saying that there's a
really strong case to be made. It was Dudley, I believe, for a
half a percent cut. So normally, sometimes what the Fed tries
to do, they will try to leak little
tidbits here and there to prep the market for what might
be to come. And I have to tell you, I
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think the Fed should have cut in July. We talked about that. I think they should have cut in July a
quarter of a point. They didn't. But now here we are. We're seeing softening.
We're seeing cracks in the economy. A lot of folks are looking for
half a percent. But at the same time, doing half a percent could
cause a little bit of a panic. And it's like, how is it going to play out? Sometimes the
Fed will kind of leak this stuff into different
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channels, back channels, try to get some of these things floated out
there for the market to digest beforehand. So
I find all this very interesting and we won't know until it happens.
Look, my best bet is that they only cut a quarter of a point. But
if they're seeing some of these weakening areas of the market and
this is unemployment going higher and all these different types of things, they
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might step up and do the half a percent. We'll just have to see what happens and
see how the markets react to it. But it was a big rally off
the lows this week. The market's been really getting hammered here for
a couple of weeks. We had a really major turnaround this week. So
we're kind of right back pretty close to all-time highs on the S&P 500. And
I think that this will probably be short-lived. Okay, I'm not trying to be negative
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Nelly. But when you look at the intermediate term indicators right
now, the technical indicators on the intermediate term, they really
still look rather weak. And I think that this rally that we
saw this week could definitely fade into next. And we had a couple of things that pushed the
market higher this week. There was a conference, investment conference,
and some of the tech companies like Nvidia were talking about chip
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demand and stuff like that and caused them to really get pushed higher. So, There's
a couple of other ancillary things that kind of lifted the markets this week. Will
that hold? Will that carry forward much further? I don't
know. I think it could be a little bit wishful thinking. Again, seasonality is pretty weak
this time of year, especially in presidential election years, and
the indicators don't look so hot on the intermediate term. We
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will see how things play out, but look, I like where we sit. We've
got a little cash on hand, not too much, just a little. We've got some money
in bonds, which are kicking off some nice dividends and interest, 5% to
8% we're getting on some of those. And I love everything we've
got in the models right now as far as stocks are concerned. I cut one loose
last week, Snowflake. Actually, you know what? I'll take that back. I cut that loose on
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Monday of this week. I sold that one. It's a data management company. It
just hasn't been executing the way I'd like, so I sold that one. So we've got a
little cash. I like everything we've got right now. There's nothing I want to sell. I
like it all. And I like where we sit. Market wants to go higher. We'll
make money. If the market takes a hit or dips
back down again, we've got some protections. And hey, that's
where we want to be sitting at the moment. And if the market gives us opportunities,
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we'll jump on them. Otherwise, we'll stand pat for now, okay?
So I'm going to wrap up. That's what I've got for you this week. But look, between now and
next week, as you're thinking about your future, your long-term goals, all the
things you want to do with you and your money. Maybe
it is buy that second house, pay for that big wedding. I've got
a lot of weddings going on this year, a lot of clients with kids getting married. Some
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of these folks that I met when those kids were just babies, just
newborns. That's pretty cool to be doing this for so long that you see Newborns
who get married and go off to college and all that kind of stuff. People
retire that were just daydreaming about it when we met. So that's why I love doing
what we do. This is a great business to be in. It's very fulfilling helping
folks get to where they want to be. And I thank you for trusting us to do
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that. So between now and next we meet, just don't think about your dreams and
your future. Think big. Think B-I-G. And
Thank you for listening to this week's edition of The Big Money Report with
your host, David Boothe, President and Financial Advisor at
BIG Investment Services. For more information on BIG and
how you can access their planning and investment management services, visit
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them at abigplan.com. That's abigplan.com. Or
call them toll free at 866-946-PLAN. That's 866-946-7526. The
foregoing content reflects the opinions of David Boothe and Boothe Investment Group,
Inc. and is subject to change at any time without notice. There is no
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guarantee that the statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will
prove to be correct. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only
and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding
the purchase or sale of any security. All investing involves risk, including the
potential for loss of principal. There is no guarantee that any investment plan or