Week Ending 10_04_2024 Stock Market Recap

The market was exceptionally resilient in the face of chaos this week. Almost too resilient. How so? TUNE IN TO FIND OUT!!!

Episode Transcript

(00:34):
Hello and welcome
to this week's edition of The Big Money Report. I'm
your host, David Boothe, President and Financial Advisor at BIG
Investment Services. That's BIG, Boothe
Investment Group. We're a full-service financial advisory based
out of Dover, Delaware, serving clients all across this

(00:56):
great country. And you can read all about us at abigplan.com. That's
www.abigplan.com. I
like to put the show together once a week just to give you a recap of the week behind
and a peek at the week and weeks to come, trying
to keep you up to speed with you and your money. And
we're glad you're with us today. It is Friday, October 2024. I

(01:19):
want to start off with some shout outs. I mean, so many
shout outs this week. Talked to Kevin, who was saying my next words
before I could say them. because he listens in all the time. And
then two Jodies, one that's been with us forever, one that's brand new, both tuning
in all the time. And then Margie, who I've been with Margie
and Mike for over 20, almost 25 years, I guess. And Margie

(01:40):
says, you know, I listen to your podcast. I said, really? She says, yeah. You're going
to do something about it? You're just going to stand there and bleed. Margie, that
was the line of the week, the month, the year. To hear
you quote from Tombstone, a alpha male
cult classic like that was just too much. That was pretty awesome.
And look, there's so many other folks tuning in. We appreciate you all.

(02:01):
Can't name all of you every week, but golly day, we do appreciate everyone tuning in
and using the tool to stay on top of what's going on. And then before we
get into this, I have to say thoughts and prayers are with everyone in
the path of Hurricane Helene. We did reach out
to everyone that we could determine was within the path of
the storm. A happy report that everyone is safe. Damaged

(02:22):
roof. Kevin, Cheryl, we're praying for you guys out there and
some downed trees and things like that. Doug and Rhonda and others, but
glad to hear everyone's safe. Just praying that you guys get through what's
in front of you here and get back up and running and your feedback on
the ground. But so many people are in such disarray. And
not to go off the tangent here, we want to talk about money, but this

(02:43):
is kind of appalling to me, really. I don't know if it's appalling to you folks, but
the things that are going on are just horrific. We're such a big country
and we're always there within a minute, it seems like, with planes
and transport vehicles loaded with emergency supplies
and food and all kinds of stuff for everyone around the world. Where
the heck are we for our own people right now? I'm a little appalled at what I'm

(03:04):
seeing or not seeing, I should say, but thank goodness for the private organizations
that are picking up the slack and just jumping right in. I just
pray for their safety and success and reach as many people as
they can. It's quite a devastating event. So let's go ahead and
jump into the numbers here. The market, wow, what
a resilient market. It has been really something. It

(03:26):
was up this week. We had the Dow Jones up barely up 0.09, the
S&P 500 up 0.2, the Nasdaq up 0.1, Russell small caps down half a percent. up
but kind of like flat across the board up just a little bit. But what really
surprised me was all the negativity the market was facing this
week. We've got Israel and Iran heating up

(03:48):
substantially, Hurricane Helene. Unfortunately, I
don't want to put a weird spin on this, but many times
natural disasters, major storms, things like that actually end up
being a bit of a boost to the economy because of reconstruction efforts
and things like that. That said, there's some real concerns with
this one because so many people lost their homes

(04:10):
due to flooding. that did not have flood insurance because
they were not in a flood zone, right? This flooding was so profound and
so exorbitant that it reached homes that didn't realize
they needed it or should have it, and therefore they're not
covered. And there's going to be a real difficult road
to navigate for these folks. I'm not sure what that's going to look like for the economy moving

(04:32):
forward. I don't think it's going to be quite like some of the other storms of the
past, So you got Helene, you got Israel and Iran, then
the Longshoremen, and I'm sorry I didn't really talk about this last week, I
should have, but the Longshoremen did go on strike and the ports
were shut down along the eastern seaboard and the Gulf Coast. Thank
goodness it was only shut down for a couple of days and they have

(04:53):
since decided to delay the strike. until the
beginning of January. And I say thank goodness, because there's
so much that comes into these ports that's going to be needed along the
path of the hurricane. So I'm glad that they have
come to a decision to at least delay this action.
I was surprised to hear, because the guy running this union, when

(05:15):
you start saying things like, give us what we want or we will bury you, you
know, talking about the country, we'll bury you. Those are not nice things
to say, man. You're not winning any point or scoring any
points than me. I can tell you that. But look, it came to a quick close for
now. So the market had a lot to deal with. And then we had some
economic data. Service numbers were really, really good, really strong,

(05:36):
kind of like a blowout number there. And then the employment numbers
today, the jobs number was a blowout versus
expectations. Economists were expecting about 150,000 jobs
created, and the report was 250,000. I believe the
unemployment ticked down by a tenth of a percent, one-tenth
of a percent. It all sounds great, but just remember it

(05:58):
was a couple months ago we were told that 800 and
some odd thousand, 850,000 jobs that were created last
year that were reported to be created last year actually were not
800,000. Who knows what the number is anymore? I don't even know, but let's assume it's correct. Let's
assume it's true. 250,000 is pretty good and
a little bit of a surprise to the market. Now, all that

(06:21):
said, the market rebounded pretty strong today. It was negative during
the week, but let me tell you, it really wasn't that negative. It wasn't as negative
as I expected to see it, given the oil spiking with
Israel and Iran, given the longshoreman strike, given
all the things that we were contending with. The market held in
just exceptionally well, too well, really. I

(06:41):
find it odd. I don't know what to say, except that I find it odd. So
here we are finishing the week strong because the jobs number right now,
I'm hearing all kinds of terminology being bantered about
my industry. Goldilocks, everything is just perfect. You
got inflation coming down, employment staying strong, et
cetera, et cetera, et cetera. And Fed's cutting rates. This is

(07:03):
like the perfect scenario and all these great things. Well, Yes,
it looks that way maybe for a minute, but you have to keep in mind employment numbers
are the last thing to crack. They are the last thing
to go down when you're heading into any sort of slowdown or
recession. So I don't really hang on to this
employment data as like the end-all be-all as to how things

(07:25):
stand at any given moment because that is the last thing to break.
Employers are the last thing they'll do is let people go. And therefore, those
things are lagging indicator. And it's well known in my industry that
employment's a lagging indicator, but for whatever reason, everyone is salivating
over it. That's great. I hope it continues, right? Hey, I want to continue making
more money in the market. I hope it is Goldilocks and the soft landing. It's all great.

(07:47):
And we're all holding hands and kumbaya and everything is
just wonderful all next year. I just don't. I'm sorry,
I've been doing this for too long and I see too many cracks that
make me think that we don't want to just jump wholeheartedly on
that bandwagon. I think the important thing that we do now, and
I'll talk more about this in our year end or 2025 year outlook,

(08:09):
I'll talk in more detail about my expectations for 2025 into
2026 and how we're going to manage things. But long and short of it is we're going
to maintain a really measured and disciplined approach right now. I think that's a prudent thing
to do. You know, I tell you something else, if this employment number
really is legit, if things really are as strong as
are being suggested, there's another thing no one's really talking

(08:32):
about that we better watch out for. That will be a resurgence of inflation. Like
it happened back in the seventies into the eighties and it was ugly. It
was brutal. I can't even begin to tell you how bad it was. Of
course, maybe you lived through it. If you did, you remember 12% mortgages,
13% mortgages, 20% car loans. You remember those times. So

(08:53):
we have got to be kind of careful to thread this needle. And I noticed today
the bond market really took a bit of a hit, right? Employment number
was strong. Bond market took a hit because the bond market now
is saying, well, gee, maybe the Fed's not going to be cutting
rates as much as we thought just two weeks ago. And
I would agree with that, Mr. Market. I think that you better slow your

(09:14):
roll there if you think you're going to get half a point cuts every
time they meet, because I don't think that's going to be the case if things continue
to look like they do at the moment. There's a fear of inflation resurgence,
which we have to watch out for. Looking at the sectors this week, kind
of a mixed bag across the board. Energy, as you might expect, was
up the most, up 6.8% on the week, mainly

(09:34):
because of the tensions in the Middle East. Financials were up 1.1%, that's
interest rate activity there. Utilities up 1.1%, also
related to interest rates. Consumer staples, defensive, down 1.8%. Technology,
which is more growth-oriented, was flat. I don't know, the
market didn't really say a whole heck of a lot. It did respond a bit to
this interest rate dynamic today, and that was mainly based

(09:57):
off of what's going on with the jobs number.
So again, bonds took a bit of a hit. And listen, we've been looking for some stuff
to buy. We thought that maybe October would be a volatile month, and it looks
like there's still plenty of weakness there. So I don't think we're out of the woods by any stretch
of the imagination. And if we get a good downturn in the market, we've
got a little cash on hand that we can do some buying. If we don't, bonds

(10:19):
are starting to look attractive. Some of these bond investments that we're
involved in are down a little bit here over the past week or
so, 1.5% or so. Yields are starting to climb back
up again. And we may want to allocate a little bit more that direction.
We were going to wait till January, maybe January or February into
next year, but Hey, look, we're going to take the opportunities wherever they come. They're going

(10:39):
to come in the form of bonds. We're going to jump on them. Look, we can get five to
8%, then we're going to take it if that looks like the best thing to put our
money in at the time. So look, I'm going to go ahead and wrap up.
There's a lot going on out there. Market really got through
it exceptionally well, almost too exceptionally. bothers
me a little bit. I just don't trust it. Kind of reminds me

(11:01):
of COVID. All the news was coming out of China. I was talking to
my contacts in China, hearing all this bad stuff going on. The
market kept rising and we started selling because I
didn't trust it. I don't fully trust what's happened this past week,
week and a half. I think there's probably still some downside here in
the short, nothing major, but I still think there's probably some downside. We'll see. Either

(11:21):
way, we're pretty well covered. We've got all of our bases covered, diversified very nicely.
We'll handle it as it comes our way. So between now and next
few minutes, you're thinking about your future, your long-term goals, all the things
you want to do with you and your money. Maybe
it's retire a little early. We had a couple of clients reducing their
retirement age this week. Maybe it's take that big trip, pay

(11:42):
for that wedding, be that rich aunt or uncle that takes care of your
family when you're gone. You know what your goals are and what legacy you want to leave. Don't
just think about it. Think big. Think BIG. And I will talk to
Thank you for listening to this week's edition of the Big Money Report with
your host, David Boothe, President and Financial Advisor at
BIG Investment Services. For more information on BIG and

(12:04):
how you can access their planning and investment management services, visit
them at abigplan.com. That's abigplan.com. Or
call them toll free at 866-946-PLAN. That's 866-946-7526. The
foregoing content reflects the opinions of David Boothe and Boothe Investment Group,

(12:25):
Inc., and is subject to change at any time without notice. There's no
guarantee that the statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will
prove to be correct. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only
and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding
the purchase or sale of any security. All investing involves risk, including the
potential for loss of principal. There is no guarantee that any investment plan or