June 29, 2020 • 28 mins
Bloomberg Opinion Columnist Joe Nocera discusses his piece “Don’t Fault Florida Yet for Its Handling of Covid-19.” Bloomberg Businessweek Editor Joel Weber and Businessweek National Correspondent Josh Green talk about the story “In Role Swap, Trump Runs as an Outsider, Biden Plays Incumbent.” Bloomberg New Economy Editorial Director Andy Browne shares his thoughts on China’s post-Covid climate choice. And we Drive to the Close with Ryan Detrick, Senior Market Strategist for LPL Financial.
Hosts: Carol Massar and Jason Kelly. Producer: Doni Holloway.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser and I'm
Jason Kelley. We're right here every day bringing you the
latest news from the world's of business and finance, plus technology, politics, economics,
all harnessing the power of Business Week reporters and editors,
and of course Carol that's part of a team of
twenty seven hundred journalists and analysts more than a hundred
and twenty countries and Jason. You can download Bloomberg Business
(00:23):
Week on iTunes, SoundCloud, bl Bloomberg dot com. You can
also listen to our radio show at two pm Eastern
on Bloomberg Radio every weekday, or watch us on YouTube
by searching Bloomberg Global News. Yep, lemon, it's Monday. Oh
my god, I feel it. It feels it. Um, you
know interesting we I kind of had to go out
and about for a medical thing and or dental thing.
(00:45):
Um that experience was good. I did. I went to
a show, I went to a store, so and um,
you know, they're being very very careful, but I can
see how you can quickly tip into like, oh my god,
I'm out. Yeah, totally well and reopening. That is the
word of the day for sure. And how it's going
in the effect on the virus is important. Joe No
(01:06):
Sarah is with us. I am very lucky because it's
the second time today I've gotten to talk to him.
How lucky am I? Uh? He joins his on the
phone from Florida. Mr no Sarah, you are seeing this
up close and personal in terms of one state's reaction,
and as you often are, you've got a little bit
of a different take. What are you seeing? Well? Here
(01:27):
in booka a time, Let's face it, it's filled with
New Yorkers. Um, everybody's wearing a mask. I said Sonoma yesterday,
and I asked somebody what would happen if some torsions
came in without a mask? And they told me that
awkward had told him that they need to ask that
person to leave and that they would try and help
them from behind a closed door. So, uh, it's not
(01:50):
like the people that I see, many of whom are elderly.
By the way, this is Florida, South Florida, are all
wearing masks. They're all doing the working thing. But there's
no question is a huge spike in Florida. Um. And
I think the governant is correct and ascribing a fair
amount of that to young people who are you know,
(02:12):
crowding into the bars without without mass, without social distancing,
and and spreading virus and and the the startling number
is that the average aide of a person with a
positive case has dropped from sixty two to thirty four.
So that pretty much tells you what's going on here.
And the governor has responded by closing the bars. And
(02:33):
when he does his daily thing like Cuomo used to do,
he's always talking about masks and social distancing and washing
your hands and the importance of all of that. But
he hasn't mandated mass, which is something that for instance,
the mayor of Miami has done. And uh, Miami is
also closed down the beaches for July four, for the
just the weekend. So um, you know, but you know,
(02:58):
he's a thing, Jason. Take a look at California. You know,
California number going out just as fast as Paria numbers are,
just as fast as Texas numbers are. The virus does
not care whether you're a progressive governor or a Trump
loving governor. It really doesn't. And it appears to me
(03:20):
more and more than just the act of reopening spreads
virus no matter how much you try to prevent that
from happening. Um, you know, if we lived in a
society where a hundred percent of the people wore mass
and a hundred percent of the people practice social distancing
all the time, you know, maybe we'd be in better shape.
But we don't live in that kind of society, and
(03:42):
so this is kind of the price or pain. Well,
so you know, Joe, here's the deal. I think so
many of us are like finger wagging at Florida saying,
see what you're doing, see what you've created. I mean,
how should we look at what's happening either in Florida
or some of the other states where we're seeing number
just go up. I mean, you know, are they doing
(04:03):
something wrong or not necessarily because maybe hospitalizations aren't going
up as much, or you know, and those that are
more vulnerable are actually quarantining while those that aren't so
vulnerable are going out and about. And that's a more
realistic way of kind of getting back to normal and
reopening our economy. Right. So here's the problem that the
(04:24):
what the happ to inmiologists say is that you should
get your R number below one. That means that every
person who has it gives it to fewer than one person,
uh statistically, um. But no state is really willing to
do that, not even New York. New York's at one
point oh two, which is pretty good as far as
like at one point five three, Texas is are like
(04:45):
one point a California's because if they wait that long,
and they worry about businesses shutting down, about about the
economy getting worse and worse, So there's an anxiety to
open up the society as quickly as possible to get
to get economic activity back up and running. So I
think you could make a scientific case that every almost
(05:07):
every state has reopened too early according to the you know,
the the hard and FASTI epidemiological UM recommendation. UM. But
but and this is the consequence that we're facing now,
is that people are giving it to more than one
(05:27):
person and the numbers aren't going up. The flip side
is if it truly is all younger people, they will
be less death and less hospitalizations because younger people are
more invulnerable to it. Some of them are asymptomatic, and
you know you can survive in that kind of situation.
So you know, Florida has actually done a very good
job of protecting the nursing homes, much better than New York,
(05:49):
and there's been many, many fewer deaths among the elderly. Uh.
That's so every state has a kind of a mixed
bag off. They've done well if as they've done wrong.
The progressives have to I've had a great deal of
fun sort of blasting the red state governors and the
red state governors that a great deal of fun saying, see,
I numbers are lower than yours, even though you know,
(06:11):
on and on and on, it's ridiculous. Everybody should be
trying to figure out the best way to reopen that'll
kill the fewest numbers of people. Yeah, alright, well, I
thought provoking as always. Joe No Sarah joining us on
the phone. Bloomberg opinion columnist, best selling author, host of
the award winning podcast The Shrink next Door, which has
a new bonus episode dropping next week, I believe, so
(06:36):
check that out. It's also gonna be a an Apple
movie Apple TV movie starring Paul Rutt and Will Ferrell.
Can't wait for all of that. This is Bloomberg Business
Week with Carol Masser and Jason Kelly on Bloomberg Radio
this is one of these like I just rubbing my
hands so excited to get some time with these guys.
(06:56):
Josh Green is just one of the guys you want
to hear or from at a time like this, especially
as this election really heats up. He's got a great
story in the magazine in role Swap. Trump runs as
an outsider, Biden plays incumbent. Josh joins us on the phone,
as does Joe Webber. He is, of course the editor
of Bloomberg Business Week. So Joel, I think you feel
(07:19):
the same way I do. You just want to know
what Josh Green has to say about all this, right,
we do. But I also want to just say that,
you know, we we got this story in and then
the art department came up with some art that was
just phenomenal, and we're also like do we need the
words anymore? So, you know, the greatest Josh is like
the art department can sometimes be even better. But you know,
the conceit really started with Josh, which was you know,
(07:40):
obviously the presidential race being what it is, um and
the times being what they are, it's almost like the
president as an incumbent UM and UH and Biden have
almost switched places, it seems, where Biden is actually running
like the incumbent might, whereas Trump has maintained this sort
(08:02):
of outsider persona, almost despite actually being interred of the
tyeral government. Um So, Josh, as you sort of dug
into this, one of the things that really stood out
to me was the number of authoritative people you've talked
to have advised other presidential campaigns in the past. And
I'm really curious, you know, what were the things that
stood out to you as you were reporting this. Well,
(08:22):
you know, overall, what stood out was just the oddity
of this race. But the specific thing that seems so
odd as we talked about, is that the two guys
have sort of just swapped roles. So in speaking to
pres past presidential strategist, administration officials, Trump officials, it really
has to do with the unique nature of these two men.
I mean, on the one hand, Donald Trump, you know,
(08:45):
loves being a Kennedy, loves holding stadium rallies and tweeting
and criticizing people. But he's never really kind of cotton
to running the government. And when you look at all
this going wrong in the country, from the spread of
COVID to the recession and the collapse of stock all
these other things. It's kind of understandable why he might
not want to focus on that and run the way
a traditional president would, which is having lots of rose
(09:07):
garden ceremonies and reminding people that he's the president and
he's in charge. On the other hand, you know, we've
never had a candidate quite like Joe Biden, somebody who's
been on the national stage for so long and it's
so familiar that he doesn't really need to introduce himself
to voters the way that like a new candidate like
Barack Obama did in two thousand and eight. Biden doesn't
(09:30):
really have to convince people, hey, you know, I'm qualified
to be president because he's been vice president for eight years,
he's been a senator for a hundred and forty years
or something like that, and so he he has very
well known name recognition. People have a very clear idea
of who Joe Biden is, moderate, Uncle Joe whatever, whatever,
(09:51):
and so he can kind of camp out in his basement,
and as long as he's leading in the polls by ten, twelve,
fourteen points, he can essentially run an incumbents campaign and
just say Hey, vote for me. I'm Joe. Time to
put me in charge. Well, and a big difference is,
as you write in your story, is about you know, incumbents,
you know, going after um, undecided voters in the middle right,
(10:15):
and that's what's missing from Trump. Yeah, it really is.
I mean, look, there's a reason that incumbent presidents of
both parties going back a hundred years tend to do
the same thing. You roll out a big second term agenda,
You bring in government business big wigs into the oval office.
You kind of flaunt the power that you have in
(10:35):
the bully pulpit and sort of established the conditions by
which voters think, you know, that guy looks like he's
in charge of thinks, let's give him four more years.
That's worked for every president, you know, except for UM,
George H. W. Bush and Jimmy Carter and my in
my lifetime. And because the incumbents, he has a real
(10:56):
measurable advantage. So it's sort of interesting that hump has
chosen to forego those potential advantages. I mean, he can,
you know, call a nationally televised address, you know, he
can reach out, you know, he can you can start
jobs program. There are things that you do in a
big recession that Trump is just not doing. And by
failing to do those, I think that helps explain why
(11:19):
it is that swing voters, voters in the middle at
least right now, according to the polls we have, are
primarily signing with Joe Biden. So, Josh, I mentioned the
the artwork and for those who haven't seen it, and
because this is obviously a radio program, uh, the art
department superimposed a Biden face on Trump and a Trump
(11:42):
face on Biden to get this point across UM. And
I'm wondering if that's still haunting you, Josh. It is
haunting my dreams and my nightmareage. I tweeted. I treated
out the image on my Twitter feed a little a
little while ago if anybody wants to check it out,
and I'm pretty sure it's a business week UM online
and the print, but yeah, it's it is weird. The
(12:04):
face the face swapping is a very vivid visual representation
of the broader idea I was trying to get out
here and one that you will not be able to
shake from your mind for better or force. And so, Josh,
the unusual nature of this campaign, we got to talk
about that as well. That's sort of Biden in the
basement in many ways, and Trump not being able to
(12:26):
to do these rallies. How much of that atmosphere or
lack of atmosphere is contributing to sort of the topsy
turvy nature of this. I think it's contributing a huge amount, because, um,
you know, the problem for Trump is that right now
the election is a referendum on Donald Trump, and things
aren't going real well, not in the public health sense,
(12:47):
not in an economic sense, and so he needs to
sort of switch tech and make this a choice election
between Trump and Biden. Which one do you like, which
one you trust, which one is better suited to run
the economy. That's what Trump's campaign is trying to do.
But but it's difficult, as you said, because Trump held
one sort of aborted fit full stadium rally, doesn't look
(13:07):
like it's gonna be any more an anytime soon. He
can't use the traditional methods that he did in twenty six. Uh.
He just doesn't seem inclined, as I point out in
this piece, to behave in the way a normal president
would and use the Oval Office, use the White House
bully pulp, but use the rose Garden to try and
make those distinctions. And because Biden is so far ahead
(13:29):
in the polls, he doesn't really have any pressure on
him to get out there and get in front of
voters and risk making a gas, making mistakes, saying something
offensive that could weaken as support. And so here we
are on what feels like a glide path toward a
Biden victory at least barring change. But of course, as
we know, everything changes every three weeks exactly. And I
(13:53):
would never you know, this is a president who and
a candidate formally who did things his own way and
full all you know, kind of old all of us
in terms of finding his way to the White House.
So time will tell whether or not this will ultimately
hurt him. Uh. In the meantime, it's an incredible read,
great reporting, Josh as always, and I gottas the picture
connected with the story that's in the magazine, it's online. Yeah,
(14:15):
it's a little jar, it's a little makes me a
little look at me go, Please stop, please stop, um,
of course. Josh Greeny, National correspondent, Bloomberg Business Week on
the phone from Washington, and our thanks to Joel Weber,
Bloomberg Business Week, editor on the phone in Massachusetts. This
is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and Jason Kelly
(14:36):
on Bloomberg Radio. We love talking to Andy Brown. He
is the editorial director of Bloomberg New Economy, always looking
at the whole world. Are expert on China, he joins
us on the phone from New Hampshire. I do want
to start, maybe in an unconventional way, though, Andy, if
I may. I know you've been in New Hampshire now
for a number of months. What does this all look
(14:57):
like from there? What does you mean? What does the
trade war? And what does what does this crisis look like?
The shutdown everything? Because I realized that we haven't really
talked to you about that element, sort of from a
personal and professional perspective, because you know, we hear from
all these folks across the country, and um, I wonder
(15:18):
what it looks like from your perspective, especially given how
in touch you are with the rest of the world. Yeah, so, um,
I don't know from my from my vantage point here
in Sunnopy, New Hampshire, it seems that the United States
has forgotten about the pandemic. Everybody's coming here on holiday. Uh,
nobody is wearing a face mask. Nobody seems to be
(15:40):
thinking about social distancing. Um. The good news, I guess,
is that Americans are traveling again. And we were just
talking actually the New New Economy Forum with the the
h air BnB CEO just a couple of days ago,
thinking us the business for airbnb, um is roaring back. Um.
I gotta say though, I mean, overall, the rest of
(16:02):
the world is looking at the United States, the lack
of face must, the lack of social distancing, the lack
of a coordinated government response to this, and shaking its
head and saying, you know, how, how how is this?
How is this possible? Particularly in Asia where this is
just sort of it's a reflex. Now it's a social reflex.
People don't need to be told. And of course we're
(16:22):
seeing this now in Europe, which is about to take
a decision on on on on reopening and who's going
to come in And I'm afraid it looks like the
United States is not going to be on that list,
but China will be. And that's going to be a
huge deal if if Europe closes its stores to American
travelers but opens them to the Chinese. God like, you
can't even get your head around something like that. You know,
(16:45):
I love your column, and I'm going to just you know,
kind of switch gears a little bit, because, you know,
we all tweeted out the pictures of the impact that
the global pandemic had on our environment. Right, we had
a respite, We had clearer and bluers guys around the world.
We were seeing, you know, mountains that we hadn't seen
for a while. We talked about the skies in China
(17:07):
that are certainly known, you know for being um, very
very polluted, and we've got to break but that's changed again.
And you write about this Andy in your column, Um,
how China is once again kind of retreating on climate
change and what the impact of that will be, not
just on our environment, but on its relationship again with
(17:28):
the West, already a troubled relationship with the West. Talked
to us a little bit about that. Yeah, so so,
having lived in China for for for decades, I've kind
of seen previous episodes of this. And you know where
where suddenly Beijing soot filled skies turned blue. And when
they turned blue, Beijing is one of the most beautiful
cities in the world. Um, you know, the first time,
(17:49):
China was hoping to host the Olympic Games, and an
inspection committee from the Olympics came in and the government
ordered all the coal boil at COALFI had boilers to
turn off, and the city shivered for a couple of days,
but the sky's turned blue. And then something similar happened
during the Olympics in two thousand and eight. And we've seen,
as you say, something quite similar just a few months
(18:10):
ago where the Chinese economy went into lockdown and all
of those coal fired power stations all around Beijing that
belt smoke into the Chinese capitol um you know, shut
off and suddenly, you know, you had this what now
people now call Olympic Blue. Unfortunately, every one of these
episodes has been fleeting uh and it's proved to be
(18:33):
the case in the latest episode, where you know, the
Chinese economy is now is now roaring back to life.
Carbon emissions are where they were before the lockdown, and
the worst of it is that things that covered emissions
are about to spike even higher. And this is because
China is going back. Local governments are going back to
(18:55):
the tried and tested way of of of kicking off
GDP growth build coal fire power stations, and and the
tension here, I think this is rarely going to set
up a whole new area of tension with the West
because because most of the West or much of the
West is heading in exactly the opposite direction. You know,
(19:17):
Britain hasn't burned a lump of coal in weeks and weeks.
It's the longest period without coal since the Industrial Revolution,
you know, in in the eighteen in the eighteen eighties. Um,
the United States this year is going to be is
going to be producing more power from renewables than coal
for the first time ever, you know, the first first
time in in in in in years and years. And
(19:40):
you know it's Sweden, Austria. They're going to close down
their last coal power you know stations. It doesn't really
matter because China burns half the world's coal, and so
you know, uh, it's neither here nor there. What happens
of course in Sweden, in Austria, China burning more coal
is going to swamp all of those games. Hey, and
(20:02):
it just got like seconds here, so just quickly, I mean,
wouldn't these tensions have happened anyway just because the West
is and has been for a while getting off of coal,
and China has not really showed any signs of slowing
just quickly. You're you're, you're right. But I think it's
just the stock divergence now where you know, coal is
(20:23):
is really disappearing from the grids in western countries and
in China it's making comma and will be exported through
the Belt and Road initiatives. So you're going to get
coal fired power stations, fleets of these all over pristine
sections of Central Asia other parts of the developing world.
China is the largest financier of minds and power stations
(20:46):
in the developing world. It's just a reminder why we
do need everybody on the global stage to be talking
with one another, especially the big powers, whether it's China,
whether it's the United States or guess what's not happening
that at that talking is not happening right now? All right,
Andy Brown, thank you so much keeping us honest on
all things with the Bloomberg New economy. Journing us on
(21:08):
the phone from New Hampshire, brother Journal. But you let
me drive. Oh no, no, no no, no, honey, please, I'll
do the riding velvet me. I want to drive, Just drive, baby, questions, trying.
(21:38):
This is the drive to the globe community. Thanks, we'll
drying us on Bloomberg Radio, and it is time for
the drive to the clothes back with us. Ryan Dietrich,
senior market strategist at LPL Financial, looking after about six
hundred seventy billion dollars that firm is, He joins us
on the phone from Charlotte, North Carolina. Ryan, always good
to have you back with Carol and myself. And I'm
(22:02):
gonna start where I always start with you, which is
what's going on down in Charlotte. How is this all
looking from your perspective? Personally? I feel like the last
time we talked, keep me honest here you were talking about,
you know, maybe some youth sports starting up again, and
you're sort of getting back a little bit. I wonder
what's happened in the in the meantime, Hey, Jason A, Carol,
(22:25):
thank you guys for having me back. Right um, you know,
just tonight in a couple of hours, my son Sebastian
has a baseball game, and tomorrow night, my son Gus
is a soccer game. So we're slowly getting it. It's weird,
you know, because they don't have dugouts, the kids are
all staying with the parents, we're all six ft apart um.
You know, there's no high fives and things like that.
So there's some parts of normalcy coming back. But I
(22:46):
still go to the office every once in a while
and there's still there's nobody on the road. Still, it's
still there's a ghost town, it seems like from that
point of view. But I guess just the fact that
the kids sports are slowly starting up, and honestly, we
are in South Carolina, so thin there's we all know
we're a little more laxed. Maybe I guess that some
of the things going on and they really that's right
or wrong. And you look at some of the numbers
(23:06):
that we can get into. It is scary because I
don't necessarily know anyone that has it. But at the
same time, we see the numbers and it's it continues
to go higher. But we are getting some normalcy back
here um watching our kids play some sports, right, So
we're getting to do that, which does make us feel
more normal. But when you look at the markets, the
bounce back that we've had, and then you look at
the economic data points, the earnings projections, something we just
(23:29):
talked about with Dave Wilson that there seems to be,
you know, more companies coming out and being more optimistic
about their earnings outlook. You know, does it make you
feel more positive about the financial markets or more cautionary
considering the bounce back that we've had already? Yeah, Carol,
I guess we'd be a little more cautious because came on,
you guys in April and May. We were quite bolish then,
(23:51):
and that's when everything was bad, right, all the all
the negativity out there. Wouldn't it be something if after
this forty plus per cent and route that we've had,
now the ECONO lo at the housing data today, my goodness.
I mean, most of the data we're seeing is coming
in much better than expected. Wouldn't it be something of
This is kind of where the market takes a break,
and I love it. But I will say, just like
Jillianish in late to our Bloomberg Economics economists, she said,
(24:14):
after I said, wow, look at that number, she goes, yeah,
but it's after two months where we fell off a cliff.
So we have to you can't just look at one
month data point. You've got to look at it in context.
Of what the economic backdrop and environment have been over
the last couple of months, right exactly. I mean mostly
the economic data points two months prior were some of
the worst we've ever seen. You're coming off historically historically
(24:35):
low levels, but it's still a positive thing. But at
the same time, look at history. You know, March A
two thousand three major market low, rallied like mad for
a few months, consolidated in the summer. March at two
thousand nine, major market low, huge proby for a few months,
consolidated in the summer. Here we are once again that
month of March. Obviously, we know we've had one of
the greatest three months rallies in history here and and
(24:57):
we think it makes sense. Would Mark Twain say history
doesn't repeat, but it rhymes. Maybe markets to consolidate, maybe
even pull back, which wouldn't be that bad after rally,
and then eventually worked away higher. That's what happened in
two thousand three and two thousand nine. We wouldn't be
shocked at alf it happened once again. So Ryan, you know,
(25:17):
we caught up with Josh Green are fantastic National correspondent
for a Business week earlier in the show and he
was reminding us. Not that we necessarily needed a reminding,
but I feel like some folks do. It is a
presidential election year. We are moving closer and closer. You
guys down around the Charlotte area are all too aware
of some of the politics around conventions and and and whatnot. Um,
(25:41):
but it is a presidential election here. I do wonder
how soon you start to factor that into your investment
calculus or are you already Yeah, We're not quite practical
quite yet, because clearly what the market is wanting to
see is to reopen time. We know that, right. The
data continues to show more and more cases. But the
re opening is what Mr stock markets really excited about.
(26:03):
But you mentioned the the the election, and interestingly enough,
the stock market is one of the best indicators we
have for who's gonna win that election. We took a
look and if you look at how the stock market
does by the spid, if it's up three months before
the incoming party tends to win, and if it's down
three months before the election, incoming party tends to lose,
it's been right every single time since eighty four higher.
(26:26):
It's been right eighty seven percent of the time. Twenty
and twenty three times come back to So the reality
of fact is when that clock starts here. Depending on
where you are, how stocks are doing, you might give
that clue as to who will win the election in
November and be in the White House next January. Ryan,
what's more important to the markets though? Is it the election?
Is it the virus and the economy getting back on track?
I mean, is it or is it both? And they're connected? Yeah, Well,
(26:51):
we think at this point it is the virus, right,
I mean we think if you live at the numbers,
we know it's the surgeon cases. We get it. But
the surgeon hospital stays is starting to trickle higher. But no,
we will We saw in April unfortunately the number of
death and I know death lagged the cases, but still
we're not seeing those. I mean, we'll see much more
ready to fight this, I think, and we do things.
The market is. The stock market is telling us, you
(27:11):
know that maybe there could be better economic data had
the second half of this year, but its anything we've
learned this year, it's the economy of stock. Markets don't
always died. In fact, they haven't drive it all much
this year. So again kind of like my big teams earlier.
Maybe the economy are better than the market takes a break,
but there's no question to leave it. Closer to the election,
we're gonna start breaking all those things down. But I
always pointed now as the president Trump want everyone thought
(27:33):
Steal and Cole would do very well. They happened. I mean,
it's never so obvious as to what's going to happen.
If everyone's talking about it's probably priced. Then we've had
bear markets and the bowl markets and Republicans and Democrats.
At the end of the day, the economy is doing
is what matters more. And the economic keeps opening up. Hey,
it might not matter who's in the White House, and
we still see this. Markets are higher in one that's
(27:53):
very true. All right, Gonna leave with there. Ryan Dietrich,
thank you so much, Senior Market Strategies at LPL Financial
six d seventy billion in in assets under management. On
the phone from Charlotte, North Carolina. Thanks so much for
listening to Bloomberg Business Week. Download the podcast on iTunes, Southcloud,
Bloomberg dot com, or wherever you get your podcasts, And
of course you can always listen to our radio show
at two pm Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, or watch us
(28:15):
on YouTube by searching Bloomberg Global News
This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser and I'm
Jason Kelley. We're right here every day bringing you the
latest news from the world's of business and finance, plus technology, politics, economics,
all harnessing the power of Business Week reporters and editors,
and of course Carol that's part of a team of
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and twenty countries and Jason. You can download Bloomberg Business
(00:23):
Week on iTunes, SoundCloud, bl Bloomberg dot com. You can
also listen to our radio show at two pm Eastern
on Bloomberg Radio every weekday, or watch us on YouTube
by searching Bloomberg Global News. Yep, lemon, it's Monday. Oh
my god, I feel it. It feels it. Um, you
know interesting we I kind of had to go out
and about for a medical thing and or dental thing.
(00:45):
Um that experience was good. I did. I went to
a show, I went to a store, so and um,
you know, they're being very very careful, but I can
see how you can quickly tip into like, oh my god,
I'm out. Yeah, totally well and reopening. That is the
word of the day for sure. And how it's going
in the effect on the virus is important. Joe No
(01:06):
Sarah is with us. I am very lucky because it's
the second time today I've gotten to talk to him.
How lucky am I? Uh? He joins his on the
phone from Florida. Mr no Sarah, you are seeing this
up close and personal in terms of one state's reaction,
and as you often are, you've got a little bit
of a different take. What are you seeing? Well? Here
(01:27):
in booka a time, Let's face it, it's filled with
New Yorkers. Um, everybody's wearing a mask. I said Sonoma yesterday,
and I asked somebody what would happen if some torsions
came in without a mask? And they told me that
awkward had told him that they need to ask that
person to leave and that they would try and help
them from behind a closed door. So, uh, it's not
(01:50):
like the people that I see, many of whom are elderly.
By the way, this is Florida, South Florida, are all
wearing masks. They're all doing the working thing. But there's
no question is a huge spike in Florida. Um. And
I think the governant is correct and ascribing a fair
amount of that to young people who are you know,
(02:12):
crowding into the bars without without mass, without social distancing,
and and spreading virus and and the the startling number
is that the average aide of a person with a
positive case has dropped from sixty two to thirty four.
So that pretty much tells you what's going on here.
And the governor has responded by closing the bars. And
(02:33):
when he does his daily thing like Cuomo used to do,
he's always talking about masks and social distancing and washing
your hands and the importance of all of that. But
he hasn't mandated mass, which is something that for instance,
the mayor of Miami has done. And uh, Miami is
also closed down the beaches for July four, for the
just the weekend. So um, you know, but you know,
(02:58):
he's a thing, Jason. Take a look at California. You know,
California number going out just as fast as Paria numbers are,
just as fast as Texas numbers are. The virus does
not care whether you're a progressive governor or a Trump
loving governor. It really doesn't. And it appears to me
(03:20):
more and more than just the act of reopening spreads
virus no matter how much you try to prevent that
from happening. Um, you know, if we lived in a
society where a hundred percent of the people wore mass
and a hundred percent of the people practice social distancing
all the time, you know, maybe we'd be in better shape.
But we don't live in that kind of society, and
(03:42):
so this is kind of the price or pain. Well,
so you know, Joe, here's the deal. I think so
many of us are like finger wagging at Florida saying,
see what you're doing, see what you've created. I mean,
how should we look at what's happening either in Florida
or some of the other states where we're seeing number
just go up. I mean, you know, are they doing
(04:03):
something wrong or not necessarily because maybe hospitalizations aren't going
up as much, or you know, and those that are
more vulnerable are actually quarantining while those that aren't so
vulnerable are going out and about. And that's a more
realistic way of kind of getting back to normal and
reopening our economy. Right. So here's the problem that the
(04:24):
what the happ to inmiologists say is that you should
get your R number below one. That means that every
person who has it gives it to fewer than one person,
uh statistically, um. But no state is really willing to
do that, not even New York. New York's at one
point oh two, which is pretty good as far as
like at one point five three, Texas is are like
(04:45):
one point a California's because if they wait that long,
and they worry about businesses shutting down, about about the
economy getting worse and worse, So there's an anxiety to
open up the society as quickly as possible to get
to get economic activity back up and running. So I
think you could make a scientific case that every almost
(05:07):
every state has reopened too early according to the you know,
the the hard and FASTI epidemiological UM recommendation. UM. But
but and this is the consequence that we're facing now,
is that people are giving it to more than one
(05:27):
person and the numbers aren't going up. The flip side
is if it truly is all younger people, they will
be less death and less hospitalizations because younger people are
more invulnerable to it. Some of them are asymptomatic, and
you know you can survive in that kind of situation.
So you know, Florida has actually done a very good
job of protecting the nursing homes, much better than New York,
(05:49):
and there's been many, many fewer deaths among the elderly. Uh.
That's so every state has a kind of a mixed
bag off. They've done well if as they've done wrong.
The progressives have to I've had a great deal of
fun sort of blasting the red state governors and the
red state governors that a great deal of fun saying, see,
I numbers are lower than yours, even though you know,
(06:11):
on and on and on, it's ridiculous. Everybody should be
trying to figure out the best way to reopen that'll
kill the fewest numbers of people. Yeah, alright, well, I
thought provoking as always. Joe No Sarah joining us on
the phone. Bloomberg opinion columnist, best selling author, host of
the award winning podcast The Shrink next Door, which has
a new bonus episode dropping next week, I believe, so
(06:36):
check that out. It's also gonna be a an Apple
movie Apple TV movie starring Paul Rutt and Will Ferrell.
Can't wait for all of that. This is Bloomberg Business
Week with Carol Masser and Jason Kelly on Bloomberg Radio
this is one of these like I just rubbing my
hands so excited to get some time with these guys.
(06:56):
Josh Green is just one of the guys you want
to hear or from at a time like this, especially
as this election really heats up. He's got a great
story in the magazine in role Swap. Trump runs as
an outsider, Biden plays incumbent. Josh joins us on the phone,
as does Joe Webber. He is, of course the editor
of Bloomberg Business Week. So Joel, I think you feel
(07:19):
the same way I do. You just want to know
what Josh Green has to say about all this, right,
we do. But I also want to just say that,
you know, we we got this story in and then
the art department came up with some art that was
just phenomenal, and we're also like do we need the
words anymore? So, you know, the greatest Josh is like
the art department can sometimes be even better. But you know,
the conceit really started with Josh, which was you know,
(07:40):
obviously the presidential race being what it is, um and
the times being what they are, it's almost like the
president as an incumbent UM and UH and Biden have
almost switched places, it seems, where Biden is actually running
like the incumbent might, whereas Trump has maintained this sort
(08:02):
of outsider persona, almost despite actually being interred of the
tyeral government. Um So, Josh, as you sort of dug
into this, one of the things that really stood out
to me was the number of authoritative people you've talked
to have advised other presidential campaigns in the past. And
I'm really curious, you know, what were the things that
stood out to you as you were reporting this. Well,
(08:22):
you know, overall, what stood out was just the oddity
of this race. But the specific thing that seems so
odd as we talked about, is that the two guys
have sort of just swapped roles. So in speaking to
pres past presidential strategist, administration officials, Trump officials, it really
has to do with the unique nature of these two men.
I mean, on the one hand, Donald Trump, you know,
(08:45):
loves being a Kennedy, loves holding stadium rallies and tweeting
and criticizing people. But he's never really kind of cotton
to running the government. And when you look at all
this going wrong in the country, from the spread of
COVID to the recession and the collapse of stock all
these other things. It's kind of understandable why he might
not want to focus on that and run the way
a traditional president would, which is having lots of rose
(09:07):
garden ceremonies and reminding people that he's the president and
he's in charge. On the other hand, you know, we've
never had a candidate quite like Joe Biden, somebody who's
been on the national stage for so long and it's
so familiar that he doesn't really need to introduce himself
to voters the way that like a new candidate like
Barack Obama did in two thousand and eight. Biden doesn't
(09:30):
really have to convince people, hey, you know, I'm qualified
to be president because he's been vice president for eight years,
he's been a senator for a hundred and forty years
or something like that, and so he he has very
well known name recognition. People have a very clear idea
of who Joe Biden is, moderate, Uncle Joe whatever, whatever,
(09:51):
and so he can kind of camp out in his basement,
and as long as he's leading in the polls by ten, twelve,
fourteen points, he can essentially run an incumbents campaign and
just say Hey, vote for me. I'm Joe. Time to
put me in charge. Well, and a big difference is,
as you write in your story, is about you know, incumbents,
you know, going after um, undecided voters in the middle right,
(10:15):
and that's what's missing from Trump. Yeah, it really is.
I mean, look, there's a reason that incumbent presidents of
both parties going back a hundred years tend to do
the same thing. You roll out a big second term agenda,
You bring in government business big wigs into the oval office.
You kind of flaunt the power that you have in
(10:35):
the bully pulpit and sort of established the conditions by
which voters think, you know, that guy looks like he's
in charge of thinks, let's give him four more years.
That's worked for every president, you know, except for UM,
George H. W. Bush and Jimmy Carter and my in
my lifetime. And because the incumbents, he has a real
(10:56):
measurable advantage. So it's sort of interesting that hump has
chosen to forego those potential advantages. I mean, he can,
you know, call a nationally televised address, you know, he
can reach out, you know, he can you can start
jobs program. There are things that you do in a
big recession that Trump is just not doing. And by
failing to do those, I think that helps explain why
(11:19):
it is that swing voters, voters in the middle at
least right now, according to the polls we have, are
primarily signing with Joe Biden. So, Josh, I mentioned the
the artwork and for those who haven't seen it, and
because this is obviously a radio program, uh, the art
department superimposed a Biden face on Trump and a Trump
(11:42):
face on Biden to get this point across UM. And
I'm wondering if that's still haunting you, Josh. It is
haunting my dreams and my nightmareage. I tweeted. I treated
out the image on my Twitter feed a little a
little while ago if anybody wants to check it out,
and I'm pretty sure it's a business week UM online
and the print, but yeah, it's it is weird. The
(12:04):
face the face swapping is a very vivid visual representation
of the broader idea I was trying to get out
here and one that you will not be able to
shake from your mind for better or force. And so, Josh,
the unusual nature of this campaign, we got to talk
about that as well. That's sort of Biden in the
basement in many ways, and Trump not being able to
(12:26):
to do these rallies. How much of that atmosphere or
lack of atmosphere is contributing to sort of the topsy
turvy nature of this. I think it's contributing a huge amount, because, um,
you know, the problem for Trump is that right now
the election is a referendum on Donald Trump, and things
aren't going real well, not in the public health sense,
(12:47):
not in an economic sense, and so he needs to
sort of switch tech and make this a choice election
between Trump and Biden. Which one do you like, which
one you trust, which one is better suited to run
the economy. That's what Trump's campaign is trying to do.
But but it's difficult, as you said, because Trump held
one sort of aborted fit full stadium rally, doesn't look
(13:07):
like it's gonna be any more an anytime soon. He
can't use the traditional methods that he did in twenty six. Uh.
He just doesn't seem inclined, as I point out in
this piece, to behave in the way a normal president
would and use the Oval Office, use the White House
bully pulp, but use the rose Garden to try and
make those distinctions. And because Biden is so far ahead
(13:29):
in the polls, he doesn't really have any pressure on
him to get out there and get in front of
voters and risk making a gas, making mistakes, saying something
offensive that could weaken as support. And so here we
are on what feels like a glide path toward a
Biden victory at least barring change. But of course, as
we know, everything changes every three weeks exactly. And I
(13:53):
would never you know, this is a president who and
a candidate formally who did things his own way and
full all you know, kind of old all of us
in terms of finding his way to the White House.
So time will tell whether or not this will ultimately
hurt him. Uh. In the meantime, it's an incredible read,
great reporting, Josh as always, and I gottas the picture
connected with the story that's in the magazine, it's online. Yeah,
(14:15):
it's a little jar, it's a little makes me a
little look at me go, Please stop, please stop, um,
of course. Josh Greeny, National correspondent, Bloomberg Business Week on
the phone from Washington, and our thanks to Joel Weber,
Bloomberg Business Week, editor on the phone in Massachusetts. This
is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and Jason Kelly
(14:36):
on Bloomberg Radio. We love talking to Andy Brown. He
is the editorial director of Bloomberg New Economy, always looking
at the whole world. Are expert on China, he joins
us on the phone from New Hampshire. I do want
to start, maybe in an unconventional way, though, Andy, if
I may. I know you've been in New Hampshire now
for a number of months. What does this all look
(14:57):
like from there? What does you mean? What does the
trade war? And what does what does this crisis look like?
The shutdown everything? Because I realized that we haven't really
talked to you about that element, sort of from a
personal and professional perspective, because you know, we hear from
all these folks across the country, and um, I wonder
(15:18):
what it looks like from your perspective, especially given how
in touch you are with the rest of the world. Yeah, so, um,
I don't know from my from my vantage point here
in Sunnopy, New Hampshire, it seems that the United States
has forgotten about the pandemic. Everybody's coming here on holiday. Uh,
nobody is wearing a face mask. Nobody seems to be
(15:40):
thinking about social distancing. Um. The good news, I guess,
is that Americans are traveling again. And we were just
talking actually the New New Economy Forum with the the
h air BnB CEO just a couple of days ago,
thinking us the business for airbnb, um is roaring back. Um.
I gotta say though, I mean, overall, the rest of
(16:02):
the world is looking at the United States, the lack
of face must, the lack of social distancing, the lack
of a coordinated government response to this, and shaking its
head and saying, you know, how, how how is this?
How is this possible? Particularly in Asia where this is
just sort of it's a reflex. Now it's a social reflex.
People don't need to be told. And of course we're
(16:22):
seeing this now in Europe, which is about to take
a decision on on on on reopening and who's going
to come in And I'm afraid it looks like the
United States is not going to be on that list,
but China will be. And that's going to be a
huge deal if if Europe closes its stores to American
travelers but opens them to the Chinese. God like, you
can't even get your head around something like that. You know,
(16:45):
I love your column, and I'm going to just you know,
kind of switch gears a little bit, because, you know,
we all tweeted out the pictures of the impact that
the global pandemic had on our environment. Right, we had
a respite, We had clearer and bluers guys around the world.
We were seeing, you know, mountains that we hadn't seen
for a while. We talked about the skies in China
(17:07):
that are certainly known, you know for being um, very
very polluted, and we've got to break but that's changed again.
And you write about this Andy in your column, Um,
how China is once again kind of retreating on climate
change and what the impact of that will be, not
just on our environment, but on its relationship again with
(17:28):
the West, already a troubled relationship with the West. Talked
to us a little bit about that. Yeah, so so,
having lived in China for for for decades, I've kind
of seen previous episodes of this. And you know where
where suddenly Beijing soot filled skies turned blue. And when
they turned blue, Beijing is one of the most beautiful
cities in the world. Um, you know, the first time,
(17:49):
China was hoping to host the Olympic Games, and an
inspection committee from the Olympics came in and the government
ordered all the coal boil at COALFI had boilers to
turn off, and the city shivered for a couple of days,
but the sky's turned blue. And then something similar happened
during the Olympics in two thousand and eight. And we've seen,
as you say, something quite similar just a few months
(18:10):
ago where the Chinese economy went into lockdown and all
of those coal fired power stations all around Beijing that
belt smoke into the Chinese capitol um you know, shut
off and suddenly, you know, you had this what now
people now call Olympic Blue. Unfortunately, every one of these
episodes has been fleeting uh and it's proved to be
(18:33):
the case in the latest episode, where you know, the
Chinese economy is now is now roaring back to life.
Carbon emissions are where they were before the lockdown, and
the worst of it is that things that covered emissions
are about to spike even higher. And this is because
China is going back. Local governments are going back to
(18:55):
the tried and tested way of of of kicking off
GDP growth build coal fire power stations, and and the
tension here, I think this is rarely going to set
up a whole new area of tension with the West
because because most of the West or much of the
West is heading in exactly the opposite direction. You know,
(19:17):
Britain hasn't burned a lump of coal in weeks and weeks.
It's the longest period without coal since the Industrial Revolution,
you know, in in the eighteen in the eighteen eighties. Um,
the United States this year is going to be is
going to be producing more power from renewables than coal
for the first time ever, you know, the first first
time in in in in in years and years. And
(19:40):
you know it's Sweden, Austria. They're going to close down
their last coal power you know stations. It doesn't really
matter because China burns half the world's coal, and so
you know, uh, it's neither here nor there. What happens
of course in Sweden, in Austria, China burning more coal
is going to swamp all of those games. Hey, and
(20:02):
it just got like seconds here, so just quickly, I mean,
wouldn't these tensions have happened anyway just because the West
is and has been for a while getting off of coal,
and China has not really showed any signs of slowing
just quickly. You're you're, you're right. But I think it's
just the stock divergence now where you know, coal is
(20:23):
is really disappearing from the grids in western countries and
in China it's making comma and will be exported through
the Belt and Road initiatives. So you're going to get
coal fired power stations, fleets of these all over pristine
sections of Central Asia other parts of the developing world.
China is the largest financier of minds and power stations
(20:46):
in the developing world. It's just a reminder why we
do need everybody on the global stage to be talking
with one another, especially the big powers, whether it's China,
whether it's the United States or guess what's not happening
that at that talking is not happening right now? All right,
Andy Brown, thank you so much keeping us honest on
all things with the Bloomberg New economy. Journing us on
(21:08):
the phone from New Hampshire, brother Journal. But you let
me drive. Oh no, no, no no, no, honey, please, I'll
do the riding velvet me. I want to drive, Just drive, baby, questions, trying.
(21:38):
This is the drive to the globe community. Thanks, we'll
drying us on Bloomberg Radio, and it is time for
the drive to the clothes back with us. Ryan Dietrich,
senior market strategist at LPL Financial, looking after about six
hundred seventy billion dollars that firm is, He joins us
on the phone from Charlotte, North Carolina. Ryan, always good
to have you back with Carol and myself. And I'm
(22:02):
gonna start where I always start with you, which is
what's going on down in Charlotte. How is this all
looking from your perspective? Personally? I feel like the last
time we talked, keep me honest here you were talking about,
you know, maybe some youth sports starting up again, and
you're sort of getting back a little bit. I wonder
what's happened in the in the meantime, Hey, Jason A, Carol,
(22:25):
thank you guys for having me back. Right um, you know,
just tonight in a couple of hours, my son Sebastian
has a baseball game, and tomorrow night, my son Gus
is a soccer game. So we're slowly getting it. It's weird,
you know, because they don't have dugouts, the kids are
all staying with the parents, we're all six ft apart um.
You know, there's no high fives and things like that.
So there's some parts of normalcy coming back. But I
(22:46):
still go to the office every once in a while
and there's still there's nobody on the road. Still, it's
still there's a ghost town, it seems like from that
point of view. But I guess just the fact that
the kids sports are slowly starting up, and honestly, we
are in South Carolina, so thin there's we all know
we're a little more laxed. Maybe I guess that some
of the things going on and they really that's right
or wrong. And you look at some of the numbers
(23:06):
that we can get into. It is scary because I
don't necessarily know anyone that has it. But at the
same time, we see the numbers and it's it continues
to go higher. But we are getting some normalcy back
here um watching our kids play some sports, right, So
we're getting to do that, which does make us feel
more normal. But when you look at the markets, the
bounce back that we've had, and then you look at
the economic data points, the earnings projections, something we just
(23:29):
talked about with Dave Wilson that there seems to be,
you know, more companies coming out and being more optimistic
about their earnings outlook. You know, does it make you
feel more positive about the financial markets or more cautionary
considering the bounce back that we've had already? Yeah, Carol,
I guess we'd be a little more cautious because came on,
you guys in April and May. We were quite bolish then,
(23:51):
and that's when everything was bad, right, all the all
the negativity out there. Wouldn't it be something if after
this forty plus per cent and route that we've had,
now the ECONO lo at the housing data today, my goodness.
I mean, most of the data we're seeing is coming
in much better than expected. Wouldn't it be something of
This is kind of where the market takes a break,
and I love it. But I will say, just like
Jillianish in late to our Bloomberg Economics economists, she said,
(24:14):
after I said, wow, look at that number, she goes, yeah,
but it's after two months where we fell off a cliff.
So we have to you can't just look at one
month data point. You've got to look at it in context.
Of what the economic backdrop and environment have been over
the last couple of months, right exactly. I mean mostly
the economic data points two months prior were some of
the worst we've ever seen. You're coming off historically historically
(24:35):
low levels, but it's still a positive thing. But at
the same time, look at history. You know, March A
two thousand three major market low, rallied like mad for
a few months, consolidated in the summer. March at two
thousand nine, major market low, huge proby for a few months,
consolidated in the summer. Here we are once again that
month of March. Obviously, we know we've had one of
the greatest three months rallies in history here and and
(24:57):
we think it makes sense. Would Mark Twain say history
doesn't repeat, but it rhymes. Maybe markets to consolidate, maybe
even pull back, which wouldn't be that bad after rally,
and then eventually worked away higher. That's what happened in
two thousand three and two thousand nine. We wouldn't be
shocked at alf it happened once again. So Ryan, you know,
(25:17):
we caught up with Josh Green are fantastic National correspondent
for a Business week earlier in the show and he
was reminding us. Not that we necessarily needed a reminding,
but I feel like some folks do. It is a
presidential election year. We are moving closer and closer. You
guys down around the Charlotte area are all too aware
of some of the politics around conventions and and and whatnot. Um,
(25:41):
but it is a presidential election here. I do wonder
how soon you start to factor that into your investment
calculus or are you already Yeah, We're not quite practical
quite yet, because clearly what the market is wanting to
see is to reopen time. We know that, right. The
data continues to show more and more cases. But the
re opening is what Mr stock markets really excited about.
(26:03):
But you mentioned the the the election, and interestingly enough,
the stock market is one of the best indicators we
have for who's gonna win that election. We took a
look and if you look at how the stock market
does by the spid, if it's up three months before
the incoming party tends to win, and if it's down
three months before the election, incoming party tends to lose,
it's been right every single time since eighty four higher.
(26:26):
It's been right eighty seven percent of the time. Twenty
and twenty three times come back to So the reality
of fact is when that clock starts here. Depending on
where you are, how stocks are doing, you might give
that clue as to who will win the election in
November and be in the White House next January. Ryan,
what's more important to the markets though? Is it the election?
Is it the virus and the economy getting back on track?
I mean, is it or is it both? And they're connected? Yeah, Well,
(26:51):
we think at this point it is the virus, right,
I mean we think if you live at the numbers,
we know it's the surgeon cases. We get it. But
the surgeon hospital stays is starting to trickle higher. But no,
we will We saw in April unfortunately the number of
death and I know death lagged the cases, but still
we're not seeing those. I mean, we'll see much more
ready to fight this, I think, and we do things.
The market is. The stock market is telling us, you
(27:11):
know that maybe there could be better economic data had
the second half of this year, but its anything we've
learned this year, it's the economy of stock. Markets don't
always died. In fact, they haven't drive it all much
this year. So again kind of like my big teams earlier.
Maybe the economy are better than the market takes a break,
but there's no question to leave it. Closer to the election,
we're gonna start breaking all those things down. But I
always pointed now as the president Trump want everyone thought
(27:33):
Steal and Cole would do very well. They happened. I mean,
it's never so obvious as to what's going to happen.
If everyone's talking about it's probably priced. Then we've had
bear markets and the bowl markets and Republicans and Democrats.
At the end of the day, the economy is doing
is what matters more. And the economic keeps opening up. Hey,
it might not matter who's in the White House, and
we still see this. Markets are higher in one that's
(27:53):
very true. All right, Gonna leave with there. Ryan Dietrich,
thank you so much, Senior Market Strategies at LPL Financial
six d seventy billion in in assets under management. On
the phone from Charlotte, North Carolina. Thanks so much for
listening to Bloomberg Business Week. Download the podcast on iTunes, Southcloud,
Bloomberg dot com, or wherever you get your podcasts, And
of course you can always listen to our radio show
at two pm Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, or watch us
(28:15):
on YouTube by searching Bloomberg Global News
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