In this August 20th edition of Commodity Week, our panel—Dave Chatterton, Brian Stark, and Greg Johnson—evaluates the market's transition from a weather-induced, supply-driven rally to one heavily dependent on post-harvest demand. With recent excessive rainfall in Central Illinois and Indiana compounding earlier moisture stress, the panel anticipates corn and soybean yields will fall short of the USDA's optimistic August estimates, keeping local crop sizes challenged but far from a total disaster. As the trade awaits final figures from the Pro Farmer crop tour, attention is shifting toward demand wildcards, notably strong U.S. export shipments favored over Black Sea logistical uncertainties, and the potential for Chinese purchasing behavior to shift amid tariff negotiations. With producers currently undersold on new crop, our experts emphasize the need to actively scout fields to assess true yield potential, manage early harvest space by moving soybeans, and execute defensive pricing strategies for bushels that cannot be stored. They also note that current price levels present a strong opportunity to lock in profitable margins not just for this fall, but into the 2027 crop year.
Panelists
- Dave Chatterton, Strategic Farm Marketing
- Greg Johnson, Total Grain Marketing
- Brian Stark, The Andersons
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