Elon Musk's Next Big Move

Will Elon Musk finally deliver on his long-promised robotaxi revolution? This question arises after Musk announced this week via social media that Tesla's autonomous taxi service will launch on June 22 in Austin, Texas. The robotaxi initiative has lingered in Musk’s promises for six years, positioned as Tesla's most critical future product. Tesla’s ambitions center around creating self-driving vehicles that can navigate urban environments without human assistance, ideally rejuvenating the company's dwindling financial outlook.

Episode Transcript

(00:03):
Your ultimate authority for daily Elon Musk news.
Exploring the world's biggest ideas with your host Will
Walden. There's something new.
Will Elon Musk finally deliver on his long promised robo taxi
revolution? So this question has arised
after Musk announced this week the exit Tesla's autonomous taxi

(00:24):
service will launch on June 22ndin Austin, TX.
The Robotaxi initiative has lingered in Musk's promises for
about 6 years, positioned as Tesla's most critical future
product and Tesla's ambitious center around creating self
driving vehicles that can navigate urban environments
without human assistance, ideally rejuvenating the

(00:45):
company's dwindling financial outlook.
Now, Tesla's robo taxi strategy centers around model YSUVS
currently on the market, though Musk anticipates a steering
wheel free model. The Cyber cab could enter
production by 2026 and Musk believes that Tesla's camera
based technology known as FSD will offer the necessary

(01:06):
precision for safe navigation. He repeatedly mocks competing
technologies such as Lidar, which is a radar radar based
sensor system which is widely utilized by competitors like
Waymo. Traditional automotive giants
previously entered this sphere only to withdraw after incurring
significant costs. General Motors, despite

(01:27):
investing billions of dollars, recently abandoned its robotaxi
ambitions, pointing to heavy investments in an increasingly
crowded marketplace. Ford similarly shuttered its
autonomous driving division, concluding that robotaxis
presented excessive financial and technological challenges.
These decisions leave Tesla alone among major automakers in

(01:49):
America. In pursuing this new technology,
however, Tesla faces considerable obstacles in
demonstrating both technologicalreliability and economic
viability. Bryant Walker Smith, a Stanford
law expert specializing in autonomous vehicle regulation,
argues that Tesla's main hurdle is economic competition,

(02:09):
particularly against human operated ride sharing services
like Uber and Lyft. Uber drivers often operate under
low wages, which presents significant pricing pressure on
robo taxi services, especially considering the high maintenance
and operational costs of autonomous vehicle fleets.
And currently, Tesla's approach contrasts sharply with Waymo.

(02:31):
This is an autonomous taxi service already operational in
several U.S. cities like San Francisco, Los Angeles, Phoenix,
and Austin, in the same market that Tesla now targets.
Waymo, having begun commercial operations in 2020, has grown
significantly recently, surpassing 10 million rides
delivered via its fleet of about1500 vehicles.

(02:52):
But despite this growth, Waymo continues to incur substantial
losses. They reported a $4.1 billion
deficit last year. Within Alphabets broader
financial structure, though, theparent company remains highly
profitable overall. Moreover, Uber is strengthening
its autonomous vehicle position through strategic partnerships,
particularly with Waymo. The Uber CEO recently emphasized

(03:15):
that while humans will remain central to Uber's model,
Robotaxi's offer valuable long term potential.
Uber's collaboration with Waymo is expanding beyond Austin into
new markets like Atlanta, and they're aiming to gradually
integrate autonomous vehicles into its fleet alongside
traditional drivers. Now, safety concerns also play a
significant role in shaping public perceptions around robo

(03:38):
taxis. Tesla's vehicles have already
attracted scrutiny as incidents.Tesla's FSD has been involved in
leading the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration to
launch investigations into serious crashes, including one
fatal accident involving A pedestrian.
A Tesla's reliance solely on camera based systems without

(03:59):
radar or Lidar leaves it particularly vulnerable to
environmental challenges like sun glare or poor visibility
conditions. Now just take a second and I
want to say thank you to Uber. Uber is helping us out with this
episode. And if you've ever thought about
becoming an Uber driver, if you need a little bit of spare cash,

(04:19):
maybe 50 bucks here and there, you want to take somebody out to
dinner, you want to just save a little bit of money on the side,
Do it on the weekends. It's a really good way to use
something that you may already have that you're not using to
its fullest potential. I've done Uber in the past.
I'm going to be honest with you,and the fact that I could make 2

(04:41):
or $300 in a day just driving mycar around, talking to cool
people, it's great. There's a link in the show notes
for you to check that out. And I want you to know I get a
little tiny kickback for that. So when you sign up and you give
your first ride, I might make like 5 bucks.
So just so you know now, the autonomous vehicle mirrors

(05:05):
historical reservations about early automated elevators.
The initial discomfort typicallysubsides quickly once passengers
experience the service full handthough.
So whether Tesla's camera only FSD system can reliably detect
hazards comparable to lighter equipped vehicles remains A
contentious question. Is it going to miss all the

(05:28):
obstacles that are in its way? Will it drive around them?
There's been studies on YouTube channels, we've all seen them of
Tesla completely failing in fog and not so ideal conditions.
So we're going to see how this works out.
Make sure to stay tuned to this channel because if there's any
news about this FSD happening inAustin, we're going to be there.

(05:51):
Economically, though, Tesla urgently requires a successful
new venture as financial pressures mount.
Last year, Tesla's sales declined for the first time
annually, accompanied by a sharpdrop in quarterly profits.
The company's stock price reflects these difficulties,
having punched 30% since a mid-december peak, partially
impacted by market reactions to Musk's outspoken political

(06:12):
affiliations and public statements.
And despite these ongoing challenges and repeated delays,
Musk continues projecting immense optimism about the robo
taxi on Tesla's value. He claimed during an investor
presentation earlier this year robo taxis could trigger the
largest asset value increase in human history, suggesting Tesla

(06:33):
could dominate as much as 99% ofthe robo taxi market.
But think about this, if Tesla can nail FSD, they already have
the production facilities to make as many cars as they need.
Analysts for me skeptical about Musk's claims, though.
Gordon Johnson of GLJ Research dismisses the forthcoming June

(06:55):
launches. More promotional than practical,
Johnson argues that Tesla's latest move amounts to merely
demonstrating technical capability rather than seriously
testing commercial feasibility. And he said that there's a
possibility that Tesla will onlybe able to have enough cars on
the road to make it worth it in about a year or two.

(07:18):
Now Skepticism. It's broader industry doubts
surrounding Musk's repeated ambitions about Tesla's
performance gaps now. Smith also notes that Musk's
long record of overly optimisticforecasts undermines current
assertions. Historically, Musk has
repeatedly announced imminent breakthroughs for Tesla's

(07:40):
autonomous vehicle ambitions. Will need to postpone or revise
these timelines substantially byyears, possibly decades.
FSD was announced a long time ago.
Still isn't here completely. Tesla did not respond to
requests from us for further comment on the impending launch.
As June 22nd approaches, Tesla'ssuccess or struggle in

(08:01):
delivering a mobile viable robotaxi service could
decisively impact the company's long term viability and also
reshape everybody's visions of Musk's credibility.
Tesla's future prospects hinge significantly on whether its
latest robotaxi announcement proves to be another unmet
promise or the beginning of our transformative new era for

(08:25):
autonomous transportation. Hey, thank you so much for
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