2262 - Miami Marlins Top 10 Prospects

The following players are discussed:

1. Thomas White (LHP)
2. Robby Snelling (LHP)
3. Aiva Arquette (SS)
4. Starlyn Caba (SS)
5. Noble Meyer (LHP)
6. Kemp Alderman (OF)
7. Dillon Head (SS)
8. Max Acosta (2B)
9. Joe Mack (C)
10. Andrew Salas (SS)

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Good morning everyone. It is November fourteenth, about ten forty
five in the morning. It's just Prospect Podcasts as we
are reviewing the Miami Marlins, which came out this past Tuesday.
The Marlins always have lots of players to write about.
That's the fun thing for a guy who writes about prospects.

(00:22):
I'm actually finishing up the American League West and it's
been a slog astrosystem's okay, the athletic system okay, but
I just I took like three or four days to
write the Angel System. It was just brutal. I mean
just trying to find players. I was able to find
some players and some interesting players, but just takes forever

(00:46):
to kind of go through and research the people. I've
got to call people up. But you get to a
team like the Marlins and they're just tons of players.
The problem is outside of maybe the top two guys,
there's so many question marks about their players, particularly the
positional players. And actually wanted to bring this up when

(01:07):
we go to roster resource and bring up the Marlins.
I don't remember the last time they have developed a
legitimate star coming out our legitimate impact, not even a
star impact major league coming out of their minor league system.
So I'm looking at their their Q now their line.

(01:31):
Jacob Marcy was developed by the Padra system, right, I
mean he was. I mean that's that's where he was
for most of his time. He got traded and laid
in twenty twenty four, so I don't think there was
much development. Jacob Marcy Xavier Edwards played all over the
place before coming to the Marlins, didn't spend much time.

(01:53):
So just with those two guys, we're going to see
this as a as a kind of a key here
is they've acquired a lot of guys that have been
close to the major leagues and then you know, they
come up once they're in triple right after a triple
a kind of a stint. So almost a year or
less than a year. Kyle Stowers developed by the Orioles

(02:16):
and was fully baked when he came out. And August
August and Ramirez, Yankee kid who I've always kind of liked.
Griffin Conine was a Toronto kid, Liam Hicks Detroit kid,
Otto Lopez at a lopezere did not I think it's
the Giants originally signed by Graham PAULI was definitely a

(02:37):
Padres kid in a Connor Norby. None of the none
of their starting lineup was a kid they drafted or
a kid internationally they signed. And to me, that's an indictment. Yeah,
there's Hoavir Santa Santae. That was a guy that they signed.
He's a slap slappy type of hitter. And then Joey
Weimer was a can't say royal o kay right, And

(03:00):
so that's a guy that's on their bench. Now you
take a look at their it's just the opposite with
you know, with their with their pitching. Sandy al Contra
was actually originally signed by the Saint Louis Cardins. Remember
he was in that Uh what trade was he in?
I forgot anyway, he was mostly developed though as a
as a Marlin, brought in as a as a low

(03:21):
level minor league or Eddie Cabrera, Urie Perez. Ryan Weathers
was actually developed by the Padres. But we know that
the Marlins can develop pitchers. What we the jury is
not out. The jury has spoken they cannot develop positional players.
Every one of their eight positional players that is starting

(03:43):
and again they're not great players. Uh. Was brought in
from somebody from a team on the outside, and nobody
was brought in, you know, as a low way prospect, right,
So I just think that's an indictment and we have
to take that. As you're going through and right these
and discussing, you need to be real as you're going
through first year player drafts and you're thinking about drafting

(04:07):
Avi ave Arquette and go, I mean, do I really
want to spend my first round draft pick on a
guy like that? I mean, I do like the upside.
He was seventh overall, but the history says he's not
going to develop. So at some point you've got to
take that lesson and apply it even though maybe everything

(04:30):
looks good with a particular player and say, you know,
I'm going to hold off, And I think as we
go through all these players, I think that's going to
be how I couch everything, because again I've gone through
all these systems in gory detail and not just looking
at the players, but also the organizational development philosophy and

(04:51):
what they're good at and what they're not good at.
And the bottom line is the Marlins are not good
at developing positional players. Let's get into it again. I'll
do the top ten for everyone and then the bottom
thirteen for just our Patreon members. I encourage you, if
you want to you like this kind of material, join

(05:12):
us at to become a Patreon member patr o n
dot com For Prospect three sixty one. It supports me,
It supports ten and allows us to continue to put
out the content that we're doing. And you know, without
our subscribers, quite frankly, we wouldn't do the podcast anymore.
There wouldn't be any any Prospect work I'd be doing

(05:34):
because it's just, you know, there's too much time and
effort that goes into it to not have a little
bit of income to feel like at least you're you know,
it's a little worth while. Believing we don't make much
money to begin with, but feeling like there's enough just
to cover our expenses and allow us to go to
baseball games is really what we're trying to cover here.

(05:58):
So again, I appreciate all of our Patreon members and
thank you for your support. Okay, first guy is Thomas White,
left handed pitcher. Could I have gone with Robbie Snelling?
Maybe Robbie Snelling close. I'm not sure why Robbie Snelling
hasn't been in the major leagues already. I thought, remember
my NFBC team in twenty twenty four. I drapped in

(06:18):
him thinking he would be up in twenty twenty four
when he was with the Padres, and he just wet
the bed as a Padre. And then they moved him
at the trade deadline, and as the Marlins do, they
fixed them. They got him throwing harder, they got them
more lined to the plate. He started throwing better strikes
and had just a tremendous season last year. One hundred

(06:42):
and thirty six innings, a two fifty four ERA, one
hundred and sixty six strikes, just thirty nine walks, five
to one strike at the walk ratio. He had a
couple of bad outings in the beginning of the season,
but I mean from May fifteenth through the end of
the end of the season, he was just money and
I was he didn't get the call. But he's going

(07:03):
to be up, and he's going to be up soon.
I believe in two thousand and twenty six now there
might not be room for him. So there's always that.
But so you can make the argument Robbie Selling should
be number one. I think the upside is higher with
Thomas White. In fact, I know it is. He's just
a bigger kid, throws a little bit harder. If fastball's

(07:24):
up to ninety seven, huge spend twenty five p fifty.
So you get that backspin on the on the pitch
that allows it to ride through the zone. Remember, balls,
based on gravity, you're supposed to drop. That's what your
brain has been trained to think. Particularly baseball hitters have
been trained to think that when it gets close to
the plate, closer to the plate, it's going to be dropping.

(07:46):
And when that ball has tremendous backspin on it and
doesn't drop as much, all it takes is an inch
or two and it's swinging miss or foul ball or
weak rounders. So that's why backspin has become so important.
One of the things that Jeff Luno and the Houston
Astros were, I mean, they're really the first team that

(08:08):
was on this. Now, the drive line guys were on
it even earlier than that, but they were really the
first major league team to kind of adopt that. And
notice that with Garrett Cole, and that's the reason they
traded for Garrett Cole and a lot of other guys
and made that run and then everybody called on to
what they were doing and started to really scrutinize spend

(08:28):
and the importance of spin, and the vertical vertical, inverted
vertical break and so forth, all the things that I
talked about talk about at nauseum with our with our
Patreon members. But again, White's got the big fastball. He's
six foot five. He has been struggling with control. I'm
just not worried about it. Now. Could he be an

(08:49):
Eddie Cabrera. That Edie cabrerack same kind of thing, just
big kid took him forever. He's still struggling with throwing strikes,
but at least Edward Cabrera started to show some signs
and he might be putting things together. We'll see if
that's actually going to happen. I think Thomas White needs
another year or two to get that control down to

(09:10):
at least average. But I think it's just all there,
and I think he's going to pitch at the top
of the rotation and be one of the better pitchers
in the league once he start. Once he puts it
all together. That's why I have him as the number
one overall player in this system and one of the
best highest ranked prospects in baseball. Let me tell you

(09:31):
where I have these guys and go to the team
of the Miami Marlins Doo Miami just for a patron
members of about to six hundred and twenty five capsules written.
So that's pretty cool. I've got Thomas White at twenty
nine and Robbie Snelling at thirty eight. Come in number three. Again.

(09:53):
I like a via arquette. I have him ranked overall
five hundred at forty nine current only I don't know me.
My gut says he's going to underperform and look big
kid at shortstop now, but he's a six foot five.

(10:13):
Six foot five guys don't stay at shortstop now. He's
got the arm to do third base, I don't know
if he's got the footwork to do third base. So
I'm thinking he's more good. He's going to be a
first basement or corner outfielder. That's why I have him
this top fifty first basement, our top forty five outfielder.
That's where his fantasy fantasy ceiling is. I think there's
going to be power, a little bit of speed early

(10:34):
in his career, and the question is going to come
down to you know how much he hits, and I
think that's that's where I have my real concern. He
did hold his own in High A two forty two
three point fifty three twenty three, did have seven steals.
I don't think he's that fast, so I would not
be counting on huge stolen bases. But I think it

(10:55):
could be a twenty five home run. Guy sitting at
first base or corner outfield could come with a two
point fifty ish type of batting average, but maybe a
three forty three fifty one base percentage. I think it's
going to be on base a percentage upside, middle of
the order bat. I think it's relatively low risk. I
don't see a star there, but I've said this before,

(11:18):
and you know, and then the Marlins disappoint with guys
that they just can't develop. But it's all sitting there
with our cat. He should be able to get up.
I got his ET at twenty twenty seven. I think
that's fair. I think he ends the season here in
Double A and we see him in Triple A next season.
Starlin Caba originally signed by the Philadelphia Phillies. I've seen

(11:40):
this guy play a lot, really athletic, great speed, he's
not a big guy five nine hundred and sixty pounds,
so there's I don't think there's gonna be much power there.
And again that's the we go back to the Marlins.
I mean, Jacob Marcy doesn't have a lot of power.
I know, yeah, bunch, Xavier Averwards has no power, so

(12:03):
Graham Pauli doesn't have a ton of power near this
kind of Norby, So they've got a lot of these
And Santo A I pronounced his name has no power either,
So they've got a lot of these guys that are
speed oriented dudes with no power, almost like the Cleveland
Guardians kind of approach. So does let's get back over

(12:27):
to my my list here, does Starling Kabba kind of
become a tweener with the Marlins and never make it? Maybe?
But I do like the player, and I haven't been
a couple of leagues, so I think he's got a
chance to stay at shortstop, and I think there's going
to be a ton of stolen basis with Highland base percentage.
Question is has become a utility player because he doesn't

(12:49):
have enough power? Could be nobel Meyer was the draft
of the same year as Thomas White. It was actually
the tenth overall pick, and I just think there's some Yeah,
he was when he was drafted, the word was hundred
mile an hour fastball, going to move through the system fast.
And it's not been a hundred min hour fastball at

(13:11):
all and professional ball. It's been sitting more ninety three
to ninety four, touching ninety six. There is a ton
of spin on it, but he has just not been
able to throw strikes. And you know, and Thomas White
has been able. I mean he's been kind of a
load to mid four's walk per nine. You like to
see that below for you'd like to see that more
of around three. I think White can get there. I

(13:34):
don't know if Meyer can so. And he's got a
lower three quarters delivery so it's not a traditional starter
kind of delivery package. So you worry if he's going
to become a reliever. So that's why I've dropped him
down a little bit. Is I don't believe he's a

(13:54):
top one hundred guy anymore. Yeah, he's sitting at one
on one, so it's just outside the top one hundred.
That's Noble Meyer. I know most people still have him.
I would still hold on to him. But it's amazing
the Meyers and Hia and Thomas White's and Triple A,
so they White has just been on the fast horse
and Meyer has just struggled. I don't think it's going

(14:15):
to be a situation where Meyer eventually figures it out
and becomes a better picture than White. I don't think
it's that kind of upside, but I'm hoping he does
figure it out and could become a mid rotation starter.
Caip Alderman I wrote about him a ton to our
Patreon members. He got off the slide really well, so
I mean in April and May. I probably wrote about

(14:36):
him every week or every other week, and then he
disappeared over the summertime, just to reappear in late August
and September. So he had a great beginning and the
great end, but in the middle it was pretty look
so take that for what it's worth. Streaky hitter probably,
but there's big raw power. He's showing some speed. Now.

(14:58):
I don't think there's going to be a a lot
of speed long term for him. It's gonna come down
to how much he hits. There are some platoon splits there,
but look as we talked about the Marlins. Outside of Ramirez,
I guess Kyle Stowers, they don't have a ton of powers.
So I think Kemp Alderman gets a chance in twenty

(15:19):
twenty six. It might be one of those guys as
interesting for first year player drafts if you do dare
to uh, you know, to take a Marlins in that role.
But I think there's twenty five plus home runs with
again some platoon splits, so he could be you know,
a platoon outfield or long term so Zarah, that's Kimp Alderman.

(15:40):
And we'll see Dylan Head originally signed by the Padres,
and it was one of those guys that really athletic
high school kid has been hurt a ton eighty grade runner.
I think he's gonna hit. There's tons of leadoff potential.
I don't know how much power he's going to have.
He did post a nine teen percent strikeout rate, which

(16:02):
you like, so it's just been a slog to get
him through. He is still in low way and again
he signed in twenty twenty three. It just hasn't played much.
If he can get some health, we could see him
probably the end of the season get a look in
double a but one of the more interesting guys in
this list that has a chance to really pop up,

(16:24):
and I haven't. I still have him ranked pretty high
one thirty three, So I still like the player. Max
Acosta originally signed by the Rangers, so and he was
wanted part of that two thousand and nine class and
did get a chance to see the major leagues. I
think he made a waiver wire report from Tim which
I makes total sense. He is one of these tos,

(16:48):
the racic outlet syndrume survivors. I think what we're finding
and the scary part about Zach Wheeler is pitchers have
not have not had a good history of recovering from that.
Wheeler has said even before he got hurt that this
was his last season, so it you know, he might
be limping to the finish line here. But Maxicosa seems

(17:09):
to have have worked through that. I never thought he'd
have a ton of power. He's got more power than
I think that I thought, and good speed. So it's
an interesting guy with if he can hit enough. But
there could be you know, twelve to fifteen home runs,
twenty five plus stolen bases in the profile, So very
interesting guy. And again he might be squeezed out at

(17:31):
the moment here, so it's a second base profile. He's
at second base. Xavier Edwards. I think there's more power
with Max Acosta. But Xavier Edwards did he hit three
hundred last season? Let me check. So it's kind of
hard two eighty three three twenty eighth the season before,

(17:51):
So kind of hard to demote a guy hitting two
eighty three with a three forty three on base percentage,
even though there's absolutely no power there. Yeah, hit three
home free, but that's no power. That's that's twenty thirty
great power. It's essentially no power, but it makes great contact.
This is Xavier Edwards. I think the I think the
upside and the impact with with Max acostas just higher

(18:18):
than Xavier Edwards. We'll see if he gets a shot,
but I kind of like the player have owned them
off and on. But again it's getting it's getting a little,
a little block there in Miami. Joe Mack saw him
in tripa a once, Augustin Ramirez. Ramirez got promoted. There
is a high chase rate. He doesn't make it really

(18:40):
great ends on context. So there's some approach and swing
problems there, and swing decisions there. But he can hit
and hit with power, so it's it's almost an Augustin
Ramirez type of player, very similar twenty five plus home
run power august and Ramirez might have more not sure
how how much is going to hit, but he's a
he's a cat. That's just what you get. Andrew Salas,

(19:04):
I believe it or not, he is. He is Ethan
Salas's brother. And the thing that's fascinating about the Salas
kids is they love to rush these guys. If you recall,
Ethan Sallas was skipped over the Daslis, skipped over the
Complex League and started his major league or his professional

(19:25):
career in low way, and darned if the marlin said, hey,
let's do the same thing with his brother. Ethan Salas
got hurt and has really struggled, I think mightily and
just getting his feet wet, and now with most missing
most of last season, you know there's he's still extremely talented,
but you just wish he would have gone through a

(19:46):
more traditional path. And I'm wondering if the same thing
is going to be true with Andrew Salas. He got
off well at the beginning of the season and just
hit a wall let's see, let me bring up Fangrafts
again and just tell you what he did. And once
he hit that wall, I mean, it's it just you
just had these visions of exactly the kind of problems

(20:07):
that Ethan Sallas had. Yeah, so he hit won eighty six,
twenty four percent strikeout rate, a sixteen percent walk rates,
a little bit passive, thirty nine stolen basis, which you like.
But if I take a look at his game walk,
what was he hitting at the end of let's go
from May fifteenth down to the beginning of the season. Yeah,

(20:27):
he was hitting three or five. So he got off,
got off to a great start, and then I don't
know when it all fell apart, but I mean, he
just did not hit at the end of the season. Well,
let's just do it from the end of the season
through May fifteenth or May sixteenth, that seems May sixteenth,
and then go uppear to September eighth. Yet one forty five.

(20:54):
So he just he just didn't it and I think
they figured out how to pitch to him, and he's
he doesn't have enough experience to kind of react to it.
So hitting one forty five, I mean, I know, batting
average isn't the best statistic. But that's not good. I mean,
that's just that's that's bare. That's not making it right.

(21:18):
So it's a it's just was really really problematic for
the kid. So let's hope that I'm assuming they will
have him repeat low way. He is a switch hitter,
there's good on base skills, there's good speed, he's obviously
got the pedigree. I think he's going to be just fine.
He's played a little bit over the field, so they'll

(21:38):
try to figure out where to put him. But it's
a guy that I've invested in a couple of dynasties.
I'm not giving him a bit of a pass just
because he was rushed. Let's see if he comes back
in twenty twenty six a little stronger, Maybe can get
to velocity a little bit better and he can make
the adjustments to get off the line. Now, if he's hitting,
you know, below the midza line, and by the end

(21:59):
of June, it might be time to really start to
discount this kid. But I still like andrews Alis. That
is the top ten. I hope you enjoyed Again. Please
join us out at the Patreon site if you like
this kind of work, and it's a lot of fun.
Tim's always out on the Discord site, and Tim's just
I know, you guys hear him on Sundays and Fridays

(22:22):
or whenever we do other podcasts. Tim is a tremendous
human being. Just I think we're all should all be
privileged to have Tim mcclouds somewhat in our lives. I
know that sounds a little weird, but he's just a
tremendous person. He's nice, he's knowledgeable, he doesn't have a
mean bone in his body, and the fact that he

(22:44):
gives us himself so much to the Discord site out there,
I think it's pretty tremendous to be able to benefit that.
That's just me talking from my heart. I love Tim
to death, and I think it's we should all just enjoy,
you know, Tim, because I mean, you know, he's Tim's
sixty six, sixty seventies. I gotta do this rest of

(23:05):
his life. At some point he's gonna say I've had enough.
So I think we just need to enjoy the time
that we've got with Tim before he decides I've had
enough of this Discord stuff and recording Fantasy Baseball podcasts
and stuff like that. So it'd be interesting if Tim
decides to hang it up while I hang it up too.
I just might so we're kind of linked at the

(23:26):
at the hip with doing all this stuff. But anyway,
I join us out the Patreon site. You get Tim,
you get me, and lots of other cool stuff. Until
next time, guys where Patreon members hang on. Let me
just play us out here so I can know where
to cut this