WHO ARE WE BUYING AND SELLING? | Players On The Trade Block (Ep. 1046) - FantasyPros - Fantasy Baseball Podcast

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:05):
Welcome in everybody to Fantasy pros MLB. It's time to
talk trade with me, Joey p and the Welsh. Let's
start with a big name in fantasy who's had a
rough two week span. It's Fernando Tatis Junior, a guy
who's had a great season so far. So eventually, Welsh
it was going to come back down to earth a
little bit. He was going to hit a cold spell.
Thirteen homers, thirteen steals on the year. We love all that,

(00:28):
but we don't love is the last two weeks of
Fernando Tatis. Over his last twelve games, the slash is
one ninety six three fifteen two eighty three with a
five ninety eight. Ops. That's not good at all. He's
only got one homer row that span in one RBI
as well. So if you're looking to buy a superstar,
maybe on the cheap, this is the time to do
it with Fernando Tatis, Welsh.

Speaker 2 (00:49):
We can extend this past just the two weeks because
he just left. He left May hitting one eighty four,
or he hid one eighty four in the entire month
of May. He's carried that over to June. This to
me is similar to the Corbyn Carroll thing. You know,
we talked about Corbyn Carroll on one of these in
that these guys aren't cheap by any means, but they're
going through this big struggle. It's an interesting time that,

(01:12):
you know, maybe it changes from these guys are not
available to they become available, and then the next tier
is they can become available at a little bit more
of a discount, and Tatisa might be somewhere between, like
because he's a superstar, might be somewhere in that realm
of like someone's listening now and maybe they're willing to
consolidate because it was a horrible May, it's a horrible June.
The categorically, the stats have kind of dipped. He's hitting

(01:34):
two sixty right now, thirteen thirteen on the homers and
stolen bases is still nice. He just might be more acquirable,
and I'm down for it, you know, because he is
his lowest k percentage of his career, one of the
highest walk percentages of his career. He's hitting the ball
really hard over fifty percent. There's a few things underlying
that are just kind of floating out there that maybe
like aren't the best barrel is down a tiny bit,

(01:55):
but he's still hitting fastballs, he's still hitting some secondary stuff,
and I think they're still a lot more in the tank.
He's got a weird home road split going on right now,
hitting really well at home, struggling on the road. It's
not a hitter friendly environment for San Diego. So I
kind of like everything about buying him on the low
right now. So I'm totally co signing this.

Speaker 1 (02:13):
Another power speed guy who could be on the trade
market right now you might want to look to buy
over the last thirty days, Whyatt Langford does have five
homers and seven steals. That's pretty good except for the
slash during that thirty day period, one eighty one batting
average at two sixty two OBP and a three thirty
six slugging Yikes. Things have not gone well over the

(02:34):
last month or so for Wyatt Langford. But as Welsh
likes to say, the counting stats are allowed. So power
and speed still good. The rest of it, you hope
will start to turn around. Welsh, what do you think
about buying Wyatt Langford because I want to right now. Yeah.

Speaker 2 (02:47):
I think this is like just like the the Tatis one.
You know, he had a horrifically bad entire month of May,
where he hit sub two hundred, hit one eighty nine.
He's kind of doing the same thing here in June,
but I'm all for the buye. He's struggling against lefties
right now, but you know last year he hit like
twenty five points higher as a right handed hitter. I
think he's going to continue to do that. He's actually

(03:09):
bareling the ball better, he's hitting the ball harder, he's
walking more this year, and average X of velocity is
two miles per hour up, So a lot of that
underlying stuff that's telling us a really good story. He's
also underperforming against fastballs and breaking pitches, so there's an
expected batting average that looks to be better. So we've
had these rangers have just been really really slow. But yeah,

(03:30):
like you said, the counting stats, the term I would
like to use like, he looks like he can still
be a twenty five to twenty five guy, and if
the worst is out, you can have had somebody else
take on the bad months when the best is yet
to come, because the hitting profile still looks really good.
So another really good, like bigger name that would be
probably easier to acquire because of these really bad struggles

(03:51):
and if you got somebody that's really hitting the panic button,
absolutely look to pick.

Speaker 1 (03:55):
Up the pieces. Yeah, if Langford could just find a
little bit more consistency next season, you could see the
real breakout. I don't think it's gonna be this year.
Maybe still work in progress, but certainly power speeds still there.
That's enough for me to want to buy Let's switch gears.
Talk about a couple of pitchers, and we talked about
this guy about a month ago and I still want
to buy him still. Dylan sees strikeout rate is going
up again. It's over eleven k per nine and the

(04:18):
walk rates starting to go down over the last month too.
It was well in the mid threes. Now it's three
point one point five walks per nine. You look at
the ERA, it's still four to seven to two. The
Padres are a little bit of a strange case right now,
trying to kind of find themselves again. They've had some
injuries too, But you look at the expected rs three
sixty seven, the FIP is three twenty, the ex FIP
is three point two to two. Welsh Dylan Ceez is

(04:41):
pitching much better than the ERA and just on principle,
I think you got to be aggressive on cease. What
do you think?

Speaker 2 (04:46):
Yeah, And you know he's also he talked about it
a couple weeks ago where he's just waiting for things
to like click, Like he's very confident, he knows that
things are gonna get right, and he's just waiting to
go on that streak. Right now, he is throwing his
slider more than and he threw it last year. His
fastball he's throwing less, but it's making that his slider's
like a forty three percent with pitch and the fastball

(05:07):
is getting hit a tiny bit more. But I kind
of agree he's talking about like grips and just confidence
and those pitches starting to like locate. I think he
was even talking about potentially changing how he was throwing
a certain grip.

Speaker 1 (05:19):
Like.

Speaker 2 (05:19):
I think he's a massively confident pitcher with big strikeout
numbers who unfortunately has some streaks. He goes through some
streakiness as far as bad months. I mean last year
he had a four ERA in May, in June, but
he had to and in August, but then go September,
July and April they were twos. So it's kind of
hot and cold where you're gonna get him, but you

(05:41):
always know you're going to get really big strikeouts. So
we've had a cold month. I'm willing to buy on
Dylan Seas right now.

Speaker 1 (05:46):
For sure. I want to buy on Mason Miller of
the athletics too. You know, when the a's are or athletics,
I should say are well when you're sitting at you know,
sixteen games under five hundred as may save opportunities. You know,
the starting pitching has been atrocious, so the bridge to
him hasn't been good. But if you look a little
deeper to his expected the ras at three oh seven,

(06:07):
even though his era's at four to six three, he's
had some bad luck in there too. He's still an
elite strikeout guy forty strikeouts over twenty three innings this year.
With so many problems in so of these bullpens. We
just saw another injury to the Dimondbacks closure situation yesterday.
We saw earlier this week raysol Iglesias get taken out

(06:27):
of the closer role, getting harder and harder to find,
says Plentia. Gave up some runs the other day. Yeah,
like I'd kind of looking around saying, you know what,
maybe I'm gonna buylo on Mason Miller right now just
because the A's have been so bad, lost so many games,
that maybe we get a nice second half out of him,
and maybe that ERA comes down to the expected area.
What do you think?

Speaker 2 (06:48):
Yeah, I think okay, I think the general idea is good.
The only thing I'll push back against that's tough about
this is he is an elite. He's an elite closer
regardless of the stats. So you have an elite closer,
sure in a market that.

Speaker 1 (06:59):
Is super super volatile.

Speaker 2 (07:01):
Then take on, take on, like, all, what can he where?
Where can we improve? You said, the gap and the
save opportunities? Summer months are coming up. It's a little
baby ballpark that they're pitching in. Are is it going
to get better? Is it going to get a lot better?
And I think the biggest caveat to all of this
is you're going to have to pay a premium price.
You have to pay a premium price for a closer

(07:22):
that has a higher ERA expected still is like, okay,
on a middling team in a minor league ballpark, I
think it makes it tough. But to your greater point, though,
the closing. Like, if you can trade four and get
any type of discount on a guy that really matters
and really counts and is not in question, that would
be really good. I feel like I might be more
prone to if I don't know if the price would

(07:42):
be the same, But if the price was the same
and I could get Amnuel Class A, I'd rather go
in that direction than a Mason Miller. But you would
hope that maybe with the era with them being the A's,
that maybe Mason Miller cheaper than that three or four
closer market, And then I think it might be in
because it's still a leite, it's elite strike out numbers
for sure, He's not in question, but the walks are

(08:03):
up this year. So I'm a little indifferent on this
one just because of the cost.

Speaker 1 (08:07):
Mainly, Yeah, I just want a guy that I know
is going to be the closer all year, and I
know it's going to cost me a little bit, so
it's not super cheap. But I think you're buying a
little bit of a dip on Mason Miller. And if
there's a team that happens to have, let's say, oh
you got Miller, You've got Fairbanks you got another closer
on your roster, but you're hurting offensively and somebody's got
a surplus of offense and that person is you, and
you need closer help. Go make a run at Mason

(08:28):
Miller or see if you can prime away. Before we
get to the guys we're looking to sell, let's talk
about the trade analyzer. If you want to make smarter
Fantasy Baseball trades, will use the trade analyzer because it
will instantly evaluate if a trade benefits you or your
opponent more and see how potential trades affect each team's
stats and starting lineups. Make informed trade decisions today with
a trade analyzer only on Fantasy Baseball My Playbook app

(08:51):
or at fantasypros dot com slash MLB my Playbook. Let's
start with jose L. Tuove. I want to get rid
of him. Why Well, because the last fifteen games got
five homers in ten RBI. He's had a little bit
of a power surge. But that does not take away
a lot of the cold, hard facts. And I mean
cold because if you look at the Baseball savon page,
it's blue, it's ice cold. His expected WOLBA is two
eighty one, is expecting batting average is two thirty five

(09:13):
is expected slugging Welsh is three sixty one. So that's
after all the five home runs that he's hit in
the last couple of weeks. I'm not buying it. The
exit velocity off his bat is also eighty five point
one right now. That is the lowest two percentile in
the league right now all two If looks like a
guy at thirty five years old who's just done, and
I think this is your window where he had a

(09:34):
good power surge and you want to move off them.
What do you think?

Speaker 2 (09:37):
Yeah, I think I'm with you. It's kind of tough
when I always struggle with like the bigger name players
when they're kind of struggling or in it. Luckily, he's
not like in the throes of he's hitting, like you know,
he's a two hundred hitter or whatever. He just hit
two sixty two in May. He hit two fifty two
in April. So I think that's what you're selling. You're
selling it now today. Multi position eligibility that is lower

(09:57):
average than maybe his career numbers, but still relatively solid.
But I think for a lot of these reasons that
you laid out is why I want to get out
from it. He's always kind of registered low average exit velocities,
but it's the second lowest max exit velocity of his career.
I actually think this is the also career lowest average
exit velocity. So there's a there's a sign in your

(10:19):
face that is showing you that that power depreciation is
in your is here. It is like not a fluky thing.
He's bareing the ball less they say launch angle sweet spot,
and he's trying to pull the ball more, but he's
not able to get to that good launch angle spot
where he's hitting it perfectly, and that's affecting power. Hard
hit numbers are down, and he's also under overperforming against

(10:40):
every pitch type right now, so it doesn't feel good.
Expected average is around two thirty. Power numbers look kind
of not aggressively stealing, like I'm I'm fine. I'm not
attached to hose Al on two bay. So if I
could trade him for median value to like kind of
what he is now, I think I would be comfortable
moving off because I'm not sure how much more is
in the tank. If it's gonna go up or if

(11:02):
it's gonna go back down.

Speaker 1 (11:03):
Well, I want to move off Joe Adele because in
his last fifty at BASS he's been red hot six
homers twelve rbi over that span, hitting three thirty three
with a four h seven OBP and a seven to
fifty slugging. Just for perspective, his season long twenty twenty
five numbers are still bad. He still only has twelve
home runs, despite the fact he's got six his last
fifteen games. He doesn't steal bases, he only got two

(11:23):
on the season. He's sitting two twenty six on the year.
This is a moment where if you picked him up
off the waiver wire, you just happen to have him
that all of a sudden, he has been absolutely scorching
over the last two weeks. You move on. Because we've
seen this with Joe Adell before. But we'll have like
a moment or two and people would run historically pick
him up off the waiverwire, only for him to do
nothing get sent back down. We know the history of

(11:43):
Joe Adele, and I feel like we're just in that
spot where I don't want to get fooled again. So
if for some reason I got him on my roster,
I want to move on. Maybe you're seeing things differently
when it comes to Adele, What do you think.

Speaker 2 (11:54):
A little bit like if he's on the wire, I
want to pick him up right now because he is hot,
and I think there's actually some interesting stuff. Highest career
barrel percentage, highest career hard to hit second, lowest career
strikeout rate, which is really nice, highest career average ex
of velocity. His expected batting average is fifty points higher
than he's currently hitting. It's very very Taylor war to

(12:16):
s by the way, zone contact percentage, best of his
career far none eighty two point one percent, way over
what he's ever done before. I think there's some encouraging stuff.
But am I going to pool myself into Joe Adell
is living up to the hype?

Speaker 1 (12:32):
No.

Speaker 2 (12:33):
I think he is a very worthwhile pickup in any
waiver based league. But if someone is out there trying
to acquire him and is buying in some of the
expected stuff, sure I'm willing to sell out. But this
is I think this is the most difficult one you
put on here, because like from an ownership percentage, he's
like you know, in the teams of ownership percentage, So
it's just crazy as.

Speaker 1 (12:53):
He's thirty three percent rostered. So I think this is
more of a deeper league kind of conversation we're having,
which is, if you're in a fifty team league with
you know, five active outfielders, Joe Adell's rostered. Like there's that.
I have very little, you know, doubt. So if you're
in big boy, big girl leagues, jo Adell's probably rostered
right now, especially after the week before he had. If
he has another good finish to this week, I think

(13:14):
you got to think about Okay, I've got a really
hot asset. Let me try to flip it right now
before winter comes for Joe Adell, because inevitably it always does.
Louis Castillo another guy that people feel very comfortable with
over the years, but I gotta say there's a lot
of red flags here at Louis Castillo. I understand his
ERA is at three three one, but his expected dras
at four six five Welsh That is much higher. The

(13:36):
expected FIP is at four to two four. His strikeouts
have gone down again for a second year a row,
from twenty twenty three to ten k per nine to
eight point nine to eight last year to seven point
three six. The walk rate has gone up from two
point four to one to two a two walks per
nine year over year, and I'm looking right now at
maybe Louis Castillo is just kind of holding things together

(13:58):
with smoke and mirrors.

Speaker 2 (13:59):
This makes me laugh because I'm gonna do my like.
This one is tough because I've been saying this for
like months, I like six weeks. I've been trying to
sell off him. But here's the problem. He's still been good.
He's a three getting on here, better era than he's
at over the last three years. But everything you said
is why I've wanted to get off of him. So

(14:20):
this is one of those where I'm like, I completely
agree with you. I want to sell off, but he
keeps performing. But yeah, they expected era is like over
four and a half. He's lost Villo in his fastball,
a mile per hour on his slider, his whip is
up like it's a mirage to me. But this is
this could be one of those cases where it's just
like we keep looking at a lot of this underlying
stuff and it never materializes. That can happen, but there's

(14:42):
a lot of regressive type of things that don't feel
super great about him. And you know his pitch types
are overperforming against batting averages. That you know, if guys
start kind of hitting it around, you lose Vello into
the season. I'm worried that Luis Castillo is going to
get hit up, so I agree with you one hundred percent.
I am selling on Luis Castillo still, all right.

Speaker 1 (15:03):
So those are the names we're talking about buying and
selling this week. Hit us up. Let us know who
you want to trade for. Drop your comments below like
the stream, Subscribe to Fantasy Pros MLB and you just
might win yourself a Cecil field or autograph jersey. That's right,
old school throwback number forty five could be yours from
Christine Auction dot com. It is autographed by Cecil Big
Daddy himself, and it can be yours just for being

(15:24):
here hanging out talking baseball with us on the channel.
That'll do it for us. But the story of the
game goes on for the Welsh. I'm Joey P. We'll
see you next time. Kids.

Speaker 3 (15:33):
Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Baseball Podcast.
If you love the show, the best freeway to support
us is by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts
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WHO ARE WE BUYING AND SELLING? | Players On The Trade Block (Ep. 1046)

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.css-14f5ked{margin:0;word-break:break-word;display:-webkit-box;-webkit-box-orient:vertical;box-orient:vertical;-webkit-line-clamp:2;overflow:hidden;}WHO ARE WE BUYING AND SELLING? | Players On The Trade Block (Ep. 1046)