November 13, 2019 • 12 mins
Tia Moore discusses the November 2019 Market update.
Overall Market Overview
What Current Market Means If You're a Buyer in Today's Market
What the Current Market Means if You're a Seller in Today's Market
How New Construction Effects Phoenix Real Estate Market
Fun Facts: Courtesy of the Oliver Whalen Team at Nova Home Loans
Be sure to visit our website nextviewpodcasts.com for past episode and full blog.
NextView Home Professionals can be reached at nextviewre.com for all of your real estate questions.
The Oliver Whalen team can be reached at www.oliverwhalenteamcom for all of your home loan questions. Tell them Tia sent you. 😀
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
Hi friends, it's Tia Moore here with NextView
Podcast.
Thank you for tuning in for yourNovember, 2019 market update.
I have so much to share for you,however I will condense it in
less than 10 minutes-I promise.
All right, so this is going tobe the 10 minutes that you're
gonna thank me for later becausethe information contained in
this podcast will have youequipped and ready to handle any
(00:22):
awkward conversation or anyinteraction you have with
somebody at maybe a dinner partythat you're forced to go to
later this month, LOL! Alright,so let's get into it.
I'm g oing t o give you ageneral overall market overview.
Then I'm going to discuss whatthat information means.
If you are a buyer in thismarket, I'll go over what that
information means for you.
If you are a seller in thismarket, we'll talk about how new
(00:45):
home permits are affecting ourmarket and I have a fun fact
courtesy of our friends over att he Oliver Wayland team at Nova
home loans.
It is a great new change to FHAlending guidelines and I'm sure
you guys would want to knowabout, especially if you are a
buyer, thinking about using anFHA loan or if you are a seller
that selling within an FHA pricepoint.
(01:07):
So let's get started.
Alright, so active listings forsale.
Right now we're at 14,403listings.
That is down 21% from where wewere last year.
Okay, I'm going to explain allof this and further details.
So stay with me.
Okay.
Listings under contractcurrently are up just on just at
(01:29):
19% so 10,097 listings currentlyunder contract up 19% the
monthly median sales price,we're at 283,000 which is 8%
higher.
Let me repeat that.
8% higher than where we were inNovember of last year.
(01:49):
So let's talk about what thatmeans to you.
If you are a current buyer.
So perhaps you're a buyer andyou've been waiting to purchase
because you've been hoping thatthe prices go down.
Well, unfortunately, 2019 hasprobably been a disappointment
for you if that was the case,because prices have continuously
risen, the average sale priceper square foot has increased
(02:12):
almost 7% since last November.
And the median sales price, likeI said earlier, it's currently
at 283,000.
That is an increase of 21,000compared to last November when
we measured at about 262,000.
So I know I've had people say,well, how long can this last?
People can't afford to purchasehomes.
(02:33):
What are we doing?
Well, despite the rising prices,you know, affordability has
remained normal throughout theyear.
And one of those factors isbecause private sector earnings
in the greater Phoenix area hasrisen by about 4.5%.
And that's courtesy of ourfriends over at the Cromford
report.
And then not only that, youhave, you have interest rates
(02:54):
that have continued to decline.
So you have income rising atabout four and a percent.
And then you have, interestrates declining right now,
according to, the homeownerindex published by the national
association of home builders andWells Fargo, the median family
income was measured at 72,900last quarter, and that family is
(03:16):
making that income, could affordabout 68% of what was sold last
quarter.
So about just under 70% of allthe homes that were sold in the
last three months.
It was affordable for about, um,it was affordable.
If the income was about 72,000,900, so 68% of those families
could afford a home.
All right?
Historically that the normalrange is between 60 to 75%.
(03:40):
So we're, we're well within thatrange at about 68%.
Alright?
So obviously not all buyers havestayed on the fence.
We've had a lot of buyerspurchasing homes.
That's why we've seen anincrease in homes that are under
contract despite thecompetition.
Because at the end of the day,everybody needs to have
somewhere to live and people arelooking to make their home life
(04:01):
the most, the most practical.
And the most comfortablepossible, right?
So if you're, if you're a buyerin this market, do not get
discouraged.
It may be a good time for you tobuy it depending on your
specific, your personal specificsituation.
Um, and based on what you canget as far as an interest rate
and pricing and payments andthat and so forth.
(04:23):
Contact my team at next few homeprofessionals, um, by sending us
a text at(480) 281-3078 andwe're happy to have an
individual consultation with youto see if it's a good option for
you at this time.
The nice thing about us is thatwe are a very low pressure and
we just want to give as muchinformation as possible so that
(04:44):
you can make the best decisionfor yourself.
So give us a call, send us atext and let us know.
All right, let's talk aboutseller.
So sellers, you were probablythinking, Oh my gosh, listings
are down 21% contracts are upalmost 19% and um, you know,
home sale, home prices haverisen by an average of 8%.
(05:05):
If you're at least that to, youknow, if you're around that$283k
median or below.
So you're probably thinking,well I could list my house and
sell it for whatever I want toand I'll get that price because
there's nothing else on themarket.
All right, I hope you're notthinking of that because if
you're thinking that way, youare wrong.
All right?
So what that means is if youhave a product, in this case,
(05:28):
your house that is marketableand its, which means it is in
good condition, you know, itdoesn't have any major problems,
it will attract buyers.
And if the other part of that isyou need to be priced fairly.
So if you're priced within themarket, you will see activity,
you will see offers, you willsee showings and ultimately
(05:49):
that's what you want.
So or you'll see showings.
And ultimately those things leadto offers if you're priced well
and if your home is in goodcondition.
So again, while there is, thereis an increase in demand due to
um, lower listings on the marketand home prices rising.
That does not mean you can listfor an astronomical amount above
(06:12):
as above, um, above marketvalue.
The other thing to that toalways remember is that house
will also need to appraise.
So that's, you know, that's awhole different story.
All right, so like I saidbefore, we did have a decline
in, or I may not have said it,I'm sorry.
We did have a decline in ourlistings under contract compared
(06:34):
to where we were in may, may wasour peak month, and then they
declined by about 26%.
However, it's still about 19%higher than where we were last
year.
So you're probably like, well,what does that mean?
Why could it rise 20 S why couldit decline 26% we're still
higher.
We just had a very strong, um,you know, February, March,
(06:55):
April, may.
It's a very strong contractmonth for April, and ultimately
in made those con, you know,those contracts are closing.
So that's one of the reasons.
Uh, then you also have monthlysales being up about 15%.
That's, that's truly a solidindicator that we're going to
have a really great end of theyear.
At the end of the year.
A lot of people don't list theirhomes because they want to focus
(07:18):
on the holidays.
You may have family visiting,you want to decorate for
Christmas or um, you just, youwant to get into the holiday
spirit and maybe you want to doshots, whatever the case may be,
you may not want to go throughthe process of selling a home.
And so a lot of times you seelistings declined.
However, those are good monthsto sell.
Usually during those months.
People who are very serious, ifthey're shopping for homes
(07:40):
during those holiday months, um,we tend to have a lot of people
relocating during those monthsbecause they start their new
positions in January.
So they usually have a reportdate of right after the first of
the year.
So if you, you know, if you arethinking it may be a great time
because you'll have lesscompetition on the market.
And like I mentioned before, ifyou have a home that's in good
condition and you're willing toprice it right, it could be a
(08:03):
huge opportunity for you.
Sometimes sellers will getnervous and they'll price their
homes and very low so that atthose times buyers can take
advantage of it based on what itlooks like this year it looks
like we're going to have astrong sale.
So I'm not sure that's going tobe the best strategy if, if
you're waiting, but you know,it's always good to get the
process started now.
And that way if a good dealcomes on the market that a buyer
(08:26):
sees, go ahead and jump on it.
All right, so going back to homesellers.
Okay, so like I said before,contracts are up.
Um, listings are down, so not alot of listings on the market.
If you are thinking of sellingand you want to maximize what
you get out of your, um, out ofthe sale of your house, give us
a phone call because you want tostart this process.
(08:47):
Now we're going into an electionyear and it's always
unpredictable when we do that.
So I mentioned, I would talk alittle bit about new home
construction.
So single family permits, whichis an indicator of our future
supply, right?
We're up about 4.6% year to dateand multifamily, which is
(09:07):
condos.
Townhouses are up about 6.4%which is, we haven't reached
that level since 2007 so again,multifamily permits up to 6.4%
single family permits up 4.6again, haven't reached those
levels since 2007 now, here'sthe thing, single family home
(09:29):
sales are up by 5.7% however,and we're, and we're referring
to new homes, guys, new homes,but townhomes and condo sales
that are built brand new,they're actually down 30% so
with that being said, resalecondos and town homes have
actually increased in salesvolume as we've seen, as we've
(09:51):
seen in new construction,townhomes, townhomes and condos
drop.
So if you are thinking aboutselling your condo or your town
home and it's not a brand newbuild and, or it's not an
unbrand new development, that'sgreat news for you.
The person that, that it's badnews for is if you own a condo
and you're thinking aboutrenting it, that's going to be a
challenge because with morepeople purchasing it, more
(10:13):
people are looking for renters.
So you're having to drop yourrent a little bit less and throw
it.
It's T it's, it's decreased byabout 1%.
If you're trying to rent a condo, um, if you're trying to rent
one of your condos right now.
All right, so that's the end ofour market update.
We talked about, we talked, wegave you a market overview.
Um, I talked about what themarket means if you're a buyer,
(10:34):
what the market means if you'rea seller.
Um, and I, we talked about thisnew construction and what's
happening with that now, Ididn't mention it, but sellers,
anytime you want, you can have afree market analysis.
We have a system called home bot.
It's, you can sign up for itwhenever time you want.
It's called my AC home bot andso M, Y a, Z, H O M E B O t.com.
(11:00):
And you can sign up on thatwebsite and it'll send you a
monthly report of what ishappening in your neighborhood.
And if you are a buyer, you canalso sign up for that based on
areas that you want to keeptrack of.
So it's, it's a great tool forthat.
All right.
So my friends at Nova home loansent me some information
recently and I think it's greatfor some FHA for some FHA
(11:21):
buyers.
So the, the, the T theinformation said great news for
potential home buyers withvariable income.
FHA recently announced that theywill now allow a 12 month
history for receivingcommissions, bonuses, overtimes
and tips.
This is reduced from the priorrequirement of 24 month history.
Can you guys believe that?
(11:41):
So it's been 24 months for quiteawhile and it's, it has taken
people out of the ability to usean FHA loan to purchase a home.
And now that is no longer an so.
If you were previously declinedfor FHA financing for using 12
you know, because you're acommissioned employee or you
receive bonuses and tips, besure to contact Justin and Ryan
(12:04):
over at Nova home loans.
They can be reached over at(480)233-5816 if you want to have
that conversation with them andget pre-qualifying, just let
them know that TM or from nextview home professional sent you.
All right guys, that's it forthis week.
Be sure to tune in every weekfor next few podcasts for
everything you want to knowabout real estate and business.
(12:26):
I'll talk to you soon.
Thanks.
Hi friends, it's Tia Moore here with NextView
Podcast.
Thank you for tuning in for yourNovember, 2019 market update.
I have so much to share for you,however I will condense it in
less than 10 minutes-I promise.
All right, so this is going tobe the 10 minutes that you're
gonna thank me for later becausethe information contained in
this podcast will have youequipped and ready to handle any
(00:22):
awkward conversation or anyinteraction you have with
somebody at maybe a dinner partythat you're forced to go to
later this month, LOL! Alright,so let's get into it.
I'm g oing t o give you ageneral overall market overview.
Then I'm going to discuss whatthat information means.
If you are a buyer in thismarket, I'll go over what that
information means for you.
If you are a seller in thismarket, we'll talk about how new
(00:45):
home permits are affecting ourmarket and I have a fun fact
courtesy of our friends over att he Oliver Wayland team at Nova
home loans.
It is a great new change to FHAlending guidelines and I'm sure
you guys would want to knowabout, especially if you are a
buyer, thinking about using anFHA loan or if you are a seller
that selling within an FHA pricepoint.
(01:07):
So let's get started.
Alright, so active listings forsale.
Right now we're at 14,403listings.
That is down 21% from where wewere last year.
Okay, I'm going to explain allof this and further details.
So stay with me.
Okay.
Listings under contractcurrently are up just on just at
(01:29):
19% so 10,097 listings currentlyunder contract up 19% the
monthly median sales price,we're at 283,000 which is 8%
higher.
Let me repeat that.
8% higher than where we were inNovember of last year.
(01:49):
So let's talk about what thatmeans to you.
If you are a current buyer.
So perhaps you're a buyer andyou've been waiting to purchase
because you've been hoping thatthe prices go down.
Well, unfortunately, 2019 hasprobably been a disappointment
for you if that was the case,because prices have continuously
risen, the average sale priceper square foot has increased
(02:12):
almost 7% since last November.
And the median sales price, likeI said earlier, it's currently
at 283,000.
That is an increase of 21,000compared to last November when
we measured at about 262,000.
So I know I've had people say,well, how long can this last?
People can't afford to purchasehomes.
(02:33):
What are we doing?
Well, despite the rising prices,you know, affordability has
remained normal throughout theyear.
And one of those factors isbecause private sector earnings
in the greater Phoenix area hasrisen by about 4.5%.
And that's courtesy of ourfriends over at the Cromford
report.
And then not only that, youhave, you have interest rates
(02:54):
that have continued to decline.
So you have income rising atabout four and a percent.
And then you have, interestrates declining right now,
according to, the homeownerindex published by the national
association of home builders andWells Fargo, the median family
income was measured at 72,900last quarter, and that family is
(03:16):
making that income, could affordabout 68% of what was sold last
quarter.
So about just under 70% of allthe homes that were sold in the
last three months.
It was affordable for about, um,it was affordable.
If the income was about 72,000,900, so 68% of those families
could afford a home.
All right?
Historically that the normalrange is between 60 to 75%.
(03:40):
So we're, we're well within thatrange at about 68%.
Alright?
So obviously not all buyers havestayed on the fence.
We've had a lot of buyerspurchasing homes.
That's why we've seen anincrease in homes that are under
contract despite thecompetition.
Because at the end of the day,everybody needs to have
somewhere to live and people arelooking to make their home life
(04:01):
the most, the most practical.
And the most comfortablepossible, right?
So if you're, if you're a buyerin this market, do not get
discouraged.
It may be a good time for you tobuy it depending on your
specific, your personal specificsituation.
Um, and based on what you canget as far as an interest rate
and pricing and payments andthat and so forth.
(04:23):
Contact my team at next few homeprofessionals, um, by sending us
a text at(480) 281-3078 andwe're happy to have an
individual consultation with youto see if it's a good option for
you at this time.
The nice thing about us is thatwe are a very low pressure and
we just want to give as muchinformation as possible so that
(04:44):
you can make the best decisionfor yourself.
So give us a call, send us atext and let us know.
All right, let's talk aboutseller.
So sellers, you were probablythinking, Oh my gosh, listings
are down 21% contracts are upalmost 19% and um, you know,
home sale, home prices haverisen by an average of 8%.
(05:05):
If you're at least that to, youknow, if you're around that$283k
median or below.
So you're probably thinking,well I could list my house and
sell it for whatever I want toand I'll get that price because
there's nothing else on themarket.
All right, I hope you're notthinking of that because if
you're thinking that way, youare wrong.
All right?
So what that means is if youhave a product, in this case,
(05:28):
your house that is marketableand its, which means it is in
good condition, you know, itdoesn't have any major problems,
it will attract buyers.
And if the other part of that isyou need to be priced fairly.
So if you're priced within themarket, you will see activity,
you will see offers, you willsee showings and ultimately
(05:49):
that's what you want.
So or you'll see showings.
And ultimately those things leadto offers if you're priced well
and if your home is in goodcondition.
So again, while there is, thereis an increase in demand due to
um, lower listings on the marketand home prices rising.
That does not mean you can listfor an astronomical amount above
(06:12):
as above, um, above marketvalue.
The other thing to that toalways remember is that house
will also need to appraise.
So that's, you know, that's awhole different story.
All right, so like I saidbefore, we did have a decline
in, or I may not have said it,I'm sorry.
We did have a decline in ourlistings under contract compared
(06:34):
to where we were in may, may wasour peak month, and then they
declined by about 26%.
However, it's still about 19%higher than where we were last
year.
So you're probably like, well,what does that mean?
Why could it rise 20 S why couldit decline 26% we're still
higher.
We just had a very strong, um,you know, February, March,
(06:55):
April, may.
It's a very strong contractmonth for April, and ultimately
in made those con, you know,those contracts are closing.
So that's one of the reasons.
Uh, then you also have monthlysales being up about 15%.
That's, that's truly a solidindicator that we're going to
have a really great end of theyear.
At the end of the year.
A lot of people don't list theirhomes because they want to focus
(07:18):
on the holidays.
You may have family visiting,you want to decorate for
Christmas or um, you just, youwant to get into the holiday
spirit and maybe you want to doshots, whatever the case may be,
you may not want to go throughthe process of selling a home.
And so a lot of times you seelistings declined.
However, those are good monthsto sell.
Usually during those months.
People who are very serious, ifthey're shopping for homes
(07:40):
during those holiday months, um,we tend to have a lot of people
relocating during those monthsbecause they start their new
positions in January.
So they usually have a reportdate of right after the first of
the year.
So if you, you know, if you arethinking it may be a great time
because you'll have lesscompetition on the market.
And like I mentioned before, ifyou have a home that's in good
condition and you're willing toprice it right, it could be a
(08:03):
huge opportunity for you.
Sometimes sellers will getnervous and they'll price their
homes and very low so that atthose times buyers can take
advantage of it based on what itlooks like this year it looks
like we're going to have astrong sale.
So I'm not sure that's going tobe the best strategy if, if
you're waiting, but you know,it's always good to get the
process started now.
And that way if a good dealcomes on the market that a buyer
(08:26):
sees, go ahead and jump on it.
All right, so going back to homesellers.
Okay, so like I said before,contracts are up.
Um, listings are down, so not alot of listings on the market.
If you are thinking of sellingand you want to maximize what
you get out of your, um, out ofthe sale of your house, give us
a phone call because you want tostart this process.
(08:47):
Now we're going into an electionyear and it's always
unpredictable when we do that.
So I mentioned, I would talk alittle bit about new home
construction.
So single family permits, whichis an indicator of our future
supply, right?
We're up about 4.6% year to dateand multifamily, which is
(09:07):
condos.
Townhouses are up about 6.4%which is, we haven't reached
that level since 2007 so again,multifamily permits up to 6.4%
single family permits up 4.6again, haven't reached those
levels since 2007 now, here'sthe thing, single family home
(09:29):
sales are up by 5.7% however,and we're, and we're referring
to new homes, guys, new homes,but townhomes and condo sales
that are built brand new,they're actually down 30% so
with that being said, resalecondos and town homes have
actually increased in salesvolume as we've seen, as we've
(09:51):
seen in new construction,townhomes, townhomes and condos
drop.
So if you are thinking aboutselling your condo or your town
home and it's not a brand newbuild and, or it's not an
unbrand new development, that'sgreat news for you.
The person that, that it's badnews for is if you own a condo
and you're thinking aboutrenting it, that's going to be a
challenge because with morepeople purchasing it, more
(10:13):
people are looking for renters.
So you're having to drop yourrent a little bit less and throw
it.
It's T it's, it's decreased byabout 1%.
If you're trying to rent a condo, um, if you're trying to rent
one of your condos right now.
All right, so that's the end ofour market update.
We talked about, we talked, wegave you a market overview.
Um, I talked about what themarket means if you're a buyer,
(10:34):
what the market means if you'rea seller.
Um, and I, we talked about thisnew construction and what's
happening with that now, Ididn't mention it, but sellers,
anytime you want, you can have afree market analysis.
We have a system called home bot.
It's, you can sign up for itwhenever time you want.
It's called my AC home bot andso M, Y a, Z, H O M E B O t.com.
(11:00):
And you can sign up on thatwebsite and it'll send you a
monthly report of what ishappening in your neighborhood.
And if you are a buyer, you canalso sign up for that based on
areas that you want to keeptrack of.
So it's, it's a great tool forthat.
All right.
So my friends at Nova home loansent me some information
recently and I think it's greatfor some FHA for some FHA
(11:21):
buyers.
So the, the, the T theinformation said great news for
potential home buyers withvariable income.
FHA recently announced that theywill now allow a 12 month
history for receivingcommissions, bonuses, overtimes
and tips.
This is reduced from the priorrequirement of 24 month history.
Can you guys believe that?
(11:41):
So it's been 24 months for quiteawhile and it's, it has taken
people out of the ability to usean FHA loan to purchase a home.
And now that is no longer an so.
If you were previously declinedfor FHA financing for using 12
you know, because you're acommissioned employee or you
receive bonuses and tips, besure to contact Justin and Ryan
(12:04):
over at Nova home loans.
They can be reached over at(480)233-5816 if you want to have
that conversation with them andget pre-qualifying, just let
them know that TM or from nextview home professional sent you.
All right guys, that's it forthis week.
Be sure to tune in every weekfor next few podcasts for
everything you want to knowabout real estate and business.
(12:26):
I'll talk to you soon.
Thanks.
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